Rainer Strack: The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 — and how to start solving it now

Prevodilac: Ljiljana Ikodinovic Lektor: Mile Živković

2014 is a very special year for me:

2014. je za mene vrlo posebna godina:

20 years as a consultant,

20 godina konsultantskog rada,

20 years of marriage,

20 godina braka,

and I'm turning 50 in one month.

a i punim 50 godina narednog meseca.

That means I was born in 1964 in a small town in Germany.

To znači da sam rođen 1964. u malom gradu u Nemačkoj.

It was a gray November day,

Bio je siv novembarski dan,

and I was overdue.

a ja sam bio "prenet".

The hospital's maternity ward was really stressed out

Osoblje porodilišta je zaista bilo preopterećeno

because a lot of babies were born on this gray November day.

jer se tog sivog novembarskog dana rodilo puno beba.

As a matter of fact,

Zapravo,

1964 was the year with the highest birth rate ever in Germany:

1964. je bila godina sa najvećim natalitetom u Nemačkoj ikada:

more than 1.3 million.

više od 1,3 miliona.

Last year, we just hit over 600,000,

Prošle godine je bio nešto iznad 600.000,

so half of my number.

dakle, polovina mog broja.

What you can see here is the German age pyramid,

Ovde možete da vidite nemačku uzrasnu piramidu,

and there, the small black point at the top, that's me.

I tu, ta mala crna tačka na vrhu, to sam ja.

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Smeh) (Aplauz)

In red, you can see the potential working-age population,

U crvenom možete videti stanovništvo u potencijalno radno sposobnom uzrastu.

so people over 15 and under 65,

dakle osobe starije od 15 i mlađe od 65 godina,

and I'm actually only interested in this red area.

i mene zapravo zanima samo ta crvena oblast.

Now, let's do a simple simulation

Hajde da načinimo jednostavnu simulaciju

of how this age structure will develop over the next couple of years.

razvoja ove starosne strukture tokom narednih nekoliko godina.

As you can see,

Kao što vidite,

the peak is moving to the right,

vrh se pomera nadesno,

and I, with many other baby boomers, will retire in 2030.

i ja ću se, kao i mnogi drugi bebi-bumeri, penzionisati 2030.

By the way, I don't need any forecasts

Nisu mi potrebna predviđanja

of birth rates for predicting this red area.

nataliteta da bih predvideo ovu crvenu oblast.

The red area,

Ova crvena oblast,

so the potential working-age population in 2030,

dakle potencijalno radno sposobno stanovništvo 2030.

is already set in stone today,

je već sada čvrsto opredeljeno,

except for much higher migration rates.

sem mnogo višeg stepena migracije.

And if you compare this red area in 2030 with the red area in 2014,

Ukoliko uporedite crvenu oblast 2030. sa crvenom oblašću 2014,

it is much, much smaller.

ona je mnogo, mnogo manja.

So before I show you the rest of the world,

I pre nego što vam pokažem ostatak sveta,

what does this mean for Germany?

šta ovo znači za Nemačku?

So what we know from this picture is that the labor supply,

Ono što znamo na osnovu ove slike je da će se ponuda radne snage,

so people who provide labor,

dakle ljudi koji obezbeđuju rad,

will go down in Germany, and will go down significantly.

u Nemačkoj značajno smanjiti.

Now, what about labor demand?

A šta je sa tražnjom radne snage?

That's where it gets tricky.

Tu se priča komplikuje.

As you might know, the consultant's favorite answer to any question is,

Kao što možda znate, omiljen odgovor konsultanta na bilo koje pitanje je:

"It depends."

"Zavisi".

So I would say it depends.

Tako da bih rekao da zavisi.

We didn't want to forecast the future.

Nismo želeli da predviđamo budućnost.

Highly speculative.

To je vrlo spekulativno.

We did something else.

Uradili smo nešto drugo.

We looked at the GDP and productivity growth of Germany

Posmatrali smo bruto društveni proizvod i rast proizvodnje u Nemačkoj

over the last 20 years,

tokom poslednjih 20 godina,

and calculated the following scenario:

i došli do sledećeg scenarija:

if Germany wants to continue this GDP and productivity growth,

ukoliko Nemačka želi da održi isti BDP i rast proizvodnje

we could directly calculate

možemo da direktno izračunamo

how many people Germany would need to support this growth.

koliko će ljudi biti potrebno da bi se ovaj rast održao u Nemačkoj.

And this is the green line: labor demand.

I to je zelena linija: tražnja radne snage.

So Germany will run into a major talent shortage very quickly.

Tako da će se Nemačka vrlo brzo suočiti sa značajnim nedostatkom talenata.

Eight million people are missing,

Nedostaje osam miliona ljudi,

which is more than 20 percent of our current workforce,

što je više od 20 procenata naše trenutne radne snage,

so big numbers, really big numbers.

dakle velike brojke, vrlo velike brojke.

And we calculated several scenarios,

I došli smo do nekoliko scenarija,

and the picture always looked like this.

a slika je uvek izgledala ovako.

Now, to close the gap,

Pa, da bi ispunila ovu prazninu,

Germany has to significantly increase migration,

Nemačka mora da značajno uveća migraciju,

get many more women in the workforce,

uvede mnogo više žena među radnu snagu,

increase retirement age —

povisi starosnu granicu za odlazak u penziju -

by the way, we just lowered it this year —

inače, upravo smo je ove godine snizili -

and all these measures at once.

i uvede sve ove mere odjednom.

If Germany fails here, Germany will stagnate.

Ukoliko u ovome omane, Nemačka će stagnirati.

We won't grow anymore. Why?

Nećemo više rasti. Zašto?

Because the workers are not there who can generate this growth.

Zato što nema radnika koji mogu da generišu taj razvoj.

And companies will look for talents somewhere else.

I kompanije će talente tražiti negde drugde.

But where?

Ali, gde?

Now, we simulated labor supply and labor demand

Simulirali smo ponudu i tražnju radne snage

for the largest 15 economies in the world,

za 15 najvećih svetskih privreda,

representing more than 70 percent of world GDP,

koje predstavljaju više od 70 procenata svetskog BDP-a,

and the overall picture looks like this by 2020.

i sveobuhvatna slika do 2020. izgleda ovako:

Blue indicates a labor surplus,

plava označava višak radne snage,

red indicates a labor shortfall,

crvena označava njen manjak,

and gray are those countries which are borderline.

a siva - zemlje koje se nalaze na granici.

So by 2020, we still see a labor surplus in some countries,

Tako da do 2020, još uvek primećujemo višak radne snage u nekim zemljama,

like Italy, France, the U.S.,

npr. Italiji, Francuskoj, SAD-u,

but this picture will change dramatically by 2030.

ali ova slika će se do 2030. dramatično promeniti.

By 2030, we will face a global workforce crisis

Do 2030, suočićemo se sa globalnom krizom radne snage

in most of our largest economies,

u većini naših najvećih privreda,

including three out of the four BRIC countries.

uključujući i tri od četiri zemlje BRIK-a.

China, with its former one-child policy, will be hit,

Kina će biti pogođena zbog svoje ranije politike jednog deteta,

as well as Brazil and Russia.

kao i Brazil i Rusija.

Now, to tell the truth,

Ali, da budemo potpuno iskreni,

in reality, the situation will be even more challenging.

u stvarnosti će situacija biti još izazovnija.

What you can see here are average numbers.

Ono što ovde možete da vidite su prosečne brojke.

We de-averaged them

Mi smo ih razmatrali i van proseka

and broke them down into different skill levels,

i razložili na različite nivoe kvalifikacije,

and what we found

i ono do čega smo došli

were even higher shortfalls for high-skilled people

je čak veći nedostatak visoko kvalifikovanih ljudi

and a partial surplus for low-skilled workers.

i delimičan višak radnika sa niskom kvalifikacijom.

So on top of an overall labor shortage,

Tako da ćemo se pored ukupnog nedostatka radne snage

we will face a big skill mismatch in the future,

suočiti sa velikom nesrazmerom u kvalifikacijama,

and this means huge challenges

što će predstavljati veliki izazov

in terms of education, qualification,

u smislu obrazovanja, kvalifikacije,

upskilling for governments and companies.

dodatnog obrazovanja za potrebe vlada i preduzeća.

Now, the next thing we looked into was robots, automation, technology.

Sledeće što smo posmatrali bili su roboti, automatizacija, tehnologija.

Will technology change this picture and boost productivity?

Da li će tehnologija da promeni ovu sliku i poveća produktivnost?

Now, the short answer would be

Pa, kratak odgovor bi bio

that our numbers already include a significant growth in productivity

da naše brojke već uključuju značajan rast produktivnosti

driven by technology.

pokrenut tehnologijom.

A long answer would go like this.

A dugačak odgovor bi izgledao ovako:

Let's take Germany again.

uzmimo ponovo Nemačku.

The Germans have a certain reputation in the world

Nemačka uživa određen ugled u svetu

when it comes to productivity.

kada se radi o produktivnosti.

In the '90s, I worked in our Boston office for almost two years,

Tokom '90-ih sam skoro dve godine radio u našoj bostonskoj kancelariji,

and when I left, an old senior partner told me, literally,

i kada sam otišao, stariji partner mi je doslovno rekao:

"Send me more of these Germans, they work like machines."

"Pošalji mi još tih Nemaca, oni rade kao mašine."

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

That was 1998.

To je bilo 1998.

Sixteen years later, you'd probably say the opposite.

Šesnaest godina kasnije biste verovatno rekli obrnuto:

"Send me more of these machines. They work like Germans."

"Pošalji mi više takvih mašina. One rade kao Nemci."

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Smeh) (Aplauz)

Technology will replace a lot of jobs, regular jobs.

Tehnologija će zameniti mnoge poslove, obične poslove.

Not only in the production industry,

Ne samo u proizvodnji,

but even office workers are in jeopardy

čak su i kancelarijski radnici ugroženi

and might be replaced by robots,

i mogu biti zamenjeni robotima, veštačkom inteligencijom,

artificial intelligence, big data, or automation.

"velikim podacima" ili automatizacijom.

So the key question is not if technology replaces some of these jobs,

Tako da ključno pitanje nije da li će tehnologija zameniti neke od ovih poslova,

but when, how fast, and to what extent?

već kada, koliko brzo i u kojoj meri?

Or in other words,

Ili, drugim rečima,

will technology help us to solve this global workforce crisis?

da li će nam tehnologija pomoći da rešimo ovu globalnu krizu radne snage?

Yes and no.

Da i ne.

This is a more sophisticated version of "it depends."

Ovo je prefinjenija verzija "zavisi".

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Let's take the automotive industry as an example,

Uzmimo kao primer automobilsku industriju,

because there, more than 40 percent of industrial robots are already working

jer tu već radi 40 procenata industrijskih robota

and automation has already taken place.

a automatizacija je već na delu.

In 1980, less than 10 percent of the production cost of a car

1980, elektronski delovi su činili manje od 10 procenata

was caused by electronic parts.

cene proizvodnje automobila.

Today, this number is more than 30 percent

Danas je ovaj broj veći od 30 procenata

and it will grow to more than 50 percent by 2030.

i porašće na više od 50 procenata do 2030.

And these new electronic parts and applications

I ovi novi elektronski delovi i programi

require new skills and have created a lot of new jobs,

zahtevaće nove veštine i kreirati puno novih poslova,

like the cognitive systems engineer

poput inženjera kognitivnih sistema

who optimizes the interaction between driver and electronic system.

koji optimizuje interakciju vozača i elektronskog sistema.

In 1980, no one had the slightest clue that such a job would ever exist.

1980. niko nije imao predstavu da će takav posao ikada postojati.

As a matter of fact,

Zapravo,

the overall number of people involved in the production of a car

ukupan broj ljudi koji učestvuje u proizvodnji automobila

has only changed slightly in the last decades,

se samo neznatno promenio tokom poslednjih decenija,

in spite of robots and automation.

uprkos robotima i automatizaciji.

So what does this mean?

Pa, šta to znači?

Yes, technology will replace a lot of jobs,

Da, tehnologija će zameniti mnogo radnih mesta,

but we will also see a lot of new jobs and new skills on the horizon,

ali uskoro ćemo videti i mnogo novih poslova i novih veština,

and that means technology will worsen our overall skill mismatch.

što znači da će tehnologija pogoršati ukupnu nesrazmernost u kvalifikacijama.

And this kind of de-averaging

I ovakvo posmatranje van proseka

reveals the crucial challenge for governments and businesses.

otkriva presudni izazov za vlade i kompanije.

So people, high-skilled people,

Tako da će visoko obrazovani ljudi,

talents, will be the big thing in the next decade.

talenti, imati veliki značaj tokom sledeće decenije.

If they are the scarce resource, we have to understand them much better.

Ukoliko oni predstavljaju redak resurs, moramo da ih mnogo bolje razumemo.

Are they actually willing to work abroad?

Da li su oni zaista voljni da rade u inostranstvu?

What are their job preferences?

Šta im je na poslu najvažnije?

To find out, this year we conducted a global survey

Da bismo to otkrili, ove godine smo sproveli globalno istraživanje

among more than 200,000 job seekers from 189 countries.

među više od 200.000 ljudi koji traže posao, iz 189 zemalja.

Migration is certainly one key measure to close a gap,

Migracija je sigurno jedna od ključnih mera za popunjavanje praznine,

at least in the short term,

barem kratkoročno,

so we asked about mobility.

tako da smo ih pitali o mobilnosti.

More than 60 percent of these 200,000 job seekers

Više od 60 procenata ovih 200.000 ljudi koji traže posao

are willing to work abroad.

je spremno da radi u inostranstvu.

For me, a surprisingly high number.

To je za mene iznenađujuće velik broj.

If you look at the employees aged 21 to 30,

Ukoliko posmatrate zaposlene između 21 i 30 godina,

this number is even higher.

taj broj je još veći.

If you split this number up by country,

Ukoliko ovaj broj razdelite po zemljama,

yes, the world is mobile, but only partly.

da, svet je mobilan, ali samo delimično.

The least mobile countries are Russia, Germany and the U.S.

Najmanje mobilne države su: Rusija, Nemačka i SAD.

Now where would these people like to move?

Pa, gde bi ovi ljudi želeli da se presele?

Number seven is Australia, where 28 percent could imagine moving.

Na sedmom mestu je Australija, u koju 28 procenata može da zamisli preseljenje.

Then France, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, U.K.,

Slede: Francuska, Švajcarska, Nemačka, Kanada, Velika Britanija

and the top choice worldwide is the U.S.

i na prvom mestu širom sveta su Sjedinjene Države.

Now, what are the job preferences of these 200,000 people?

A kakvom poslu ovih 200.000 ljudi daje prednost?

So, what are they looking for?

Dakle, šta oni traže?

Out of a list of 26 topics, salary is only number eight.

Na listi od 26 tema, plata je tek na osmom mestu.

The top four topics are all around culture.

Prve četiri teme su vezane za kulturu.

Number four,

Na četvrtom mestu se nalazi

having a great relationship with the boss;

odličan odnos sa pretpostavljenim;

three, enjoying a great work-life balance;

trećem: dobar balans između privatnog života i rada;

two, having a great relationship with colleagues;

drugom: odličan odnos sa kolegama;

and the top priority worldwide

a najveći prioritet širom sveta

is being appreciated for your work.

je poštovanje vašeg rada.

So, do I get a thank you?

Dakle, da li mi se kaže: "Hvala"?

Not only once a year with the annual bonus payment,

Ne samo bonusom jednom godišnje,

but every day.

već svakodnevno.

And now, our global workforce crisis becomes very personal.

I tako naša globalna kriza radne snage postaje vrlo lična.

People are looking for recognition.

Ljudi žele priznanje.

Aren't we all looking for recognition in our jobs?

Zar svi mi ne želimo priznanje na svojim radnim mestima?

Now, let me connect the dots.

Hajde da sada sve ovo povežem.

We will face a global workforce crisis

Suočićemo se sa globalnom krizom radne snage

which consists of an overall labor shortage

koja će se sastojati od opšteg nedostatka radne snage

plus a huge skill mismatch,

i velike nesrazmere u kvalifikacijama,

plus a big cultural challenge.

i velikim kulturološkim izazovom.

And this global workforce crisis is approaching very fast.

A ova globalna kriza radne snage nam se približava velikom brzinom.

Right now, we are just at the turning point.

Trenutno smo baš na prekretnici.

So what can we, what can governments, what can companies do?

I šta mi možemo da uradimo, šta mogu da urade vlade i preduzeća?

Every company,

Svakom preduzeću,

but also every country,

ali i svakoj državi

needs a people strategy,

je potrebna strategija ljudskih resursa,

and to act on it immediately,

koju mora odmah da primeni,

and such a people strategy consists of four parts.

i takva strategija ljudskih resursa se sastoji iz četiri dela.

Number one, a plan

Na prvom mestu je plan predviđanja

for how to forecast supply and demand for different jobs and different skills.

ponude i tražnje različitih poslova i veština.

Workforce planning will become more important than financial planning.

Planiranje radne snage će postati značajnije od finansijskog predviđanja.

Two, a plan for how to attract great people:

Na drugom mestu je plan privlačenja izvanrednih ljudi;

generation Y, women, but also retirees.

generacije Y, žena ali i penzionera.

Three, a plan for how to educate and upskill them.

Treće - plan njihovog obrazovanja i dodatnog obučavanja.

There's a huge upskilling challenge ahead of us.

Očekuje nas veliki izazov vezan za dodatno obrazovanje.

And four,

I kao četvrto,

for how to retain the best people,

kako zadržati najbolje ljude,

or in other words,

drugim rečima,

how to realize an appreciation and relationship culture.

kako ostvariti kulturu poštovanja i dobrih odnosa.

However, one crucial underlying factor is to change our attitudes.

Ipak, presudan osnovni faktor je promena naših stavova.

Employees are resources, are assets,

Zaposleni su resurs - ne imovina,

not costs, not head counts,

oni nisu trošak, nisu brojka,

not machines,

nisu mašine,

not even the Germans.

nisu čak ni Nemci.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)