Rainer Strack: The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 — and how to start solving it now

212,368 views

2014-12-03 ・ TED


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Rainer Strack: The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 — and how to start solving it now

212,368 views ・ 2014-12-03

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:12
2014 is a very special year for me:
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20 years as a consultant,
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20 years of marriage,
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and I'm turning 50 in one month.
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That means I was born in 1964 in a small town in Germany.
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It was a gray November day,
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and I was overdue.
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The hospital's maternity ward was really stressed out
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because a lot of babies were born on this gray November day.
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As a matter of fact,
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1964 was the year with the highest birth rate ever in Germany:
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more than 1.3 million.
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Last year, we just hit over 600,000,
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so half of my number.
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What you can see here is the German age pyramid,
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and there, the small black point at the top, that's me.
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01:00
(Laughter) (Applause)
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In red, you can see the potential working-age population,
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so people over 15 and under 65,
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and I'm actually only interested in this red area.
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Now, let's do a simple simulation
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of how this age structure will develop over the next couple of years.
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As you can see,
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the peak is moving to the right,
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and I, with many other baby boomers, will retire in 2030.
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By the way, I don't need any forecasts
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of birth rates for predicting this red area.
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The red area,
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so the potential working-age population in 2030,
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is already set in stone today,
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except for much higher migration rates.
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And if you compare this red area in 2030 with the red area in 2014,
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it is much, much smaller.
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So before I show you the rest of the world,
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what does this mean for Germany?
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So what we know from this picture is that the labor supply,
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so people who provide labor,
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will go down in Germany, and will go down significantly.
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Now, what about labor demand?
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That's where it gets tricky.
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As you might know, the consultant's favorite answer to any question is,
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"It depends."
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So I would say it depends.
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We didn't want to forecast the future.
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Highly speculative.
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We did something else.
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We looked at the GDP and productivity growth of Germany
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over the last 20 years,
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and calculated the following scenario:
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if Germany wants to continue this GDP and productivity growth,
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we could directly calculate
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how many people Germany would need to support this growth.
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And this is the green line: labor demand.
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So Germany will run into a major talent shortage very quickly.
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Eight million people are missing,
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which is more than 20 percent of our current workforce,
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so big numbers, really big numbers.
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And we calculated several scenarios,
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and the picture always looked like this.
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Now, to close the gap,
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Germany has to significantly increase migration,
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get many more women in the workforce,
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increase retirement age —
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by the way, we just lowered it this year —
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and all these measures at once.
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If Germany fails here, Germany will stagnate.
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We won't grow anymore. Why?
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Because the workers are not there who can generate this growth.
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And companies will look for talents somewhere else.
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But where?
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Now, we simulated labor supply and labor demand
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for the largest 15 economies in the world,
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representing more than 70 percent of world GDP,
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and the overall picture looks like this by 2020.
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Blue indicates a labor surplus,
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red indicates a labor shortfall,
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and gray are those countries which are borderline.
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So by 2020, we still see a labor surplus in some countries,
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like Italy, France, the U.S.,
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but this picture will change dramatically by 2030.
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By 2030, we will face a global workforce crisis
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in most of our largest economies,
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including three out of the four BRIC countries.
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China, with its former one-child policy, will be hit,
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as well as Brazil and Russia.
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Now, to tell the truth,
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in reality, the situation will be even more challenging.
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What you can see here are average numbers.
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We de-averaged them
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and broke them down into different skill levels,
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and what we found
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were even higher shortfalls for high-skilled people
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and a partial surplus for low-skilled workers.
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So on top of an overall labor shortage,
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we will face a big skill mismatch in the future,
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and this means huge challenges
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in terms of education, qualification,
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upskilling for governments and companies.
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Now, the next thing we looked into was robots, automation, technology.
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Will technology change this picture and boost productivity?
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Now, the short answer would be
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that our numbers already include a significant growth in productivity
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driven by technology.
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A long answer would go like this.
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Let's take Germany again.
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The Germans have a certain reputation in the world
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when it comes to productivity.
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In the '90s, I worked in our Boston office for almost two years,
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and when I left, an old senior partner told me, literally,
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"Send me more of these Germans, they work like machines."
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(Laughter)
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That was 1998.
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Sixteen years later, you'd probably say the opposite.
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"Send me more of these machines. They work like Germans."
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(Laughter) (Applause)
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Technology will replace a lot of jobs, regular jobs.
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Not only in the production industry,
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but even office workers are in jeopardy
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and might be replaced by robots,
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artificial intelligence, big data, or automation.
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So the key question is not if technology replaces some of these jobs,
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but when, how fast, and to what extent?
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Or in other words,
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will technology help us to solve this global workforce crisis?
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Yes and no.
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This is a more sophisticated version of "it depends."
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(Laughter)
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Let's take the automotive industry as an example,
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because there, more than 40 percent of industrial robots are already working
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and automation has already taken place.
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In 1980, less than 10 percent of the production cost of a car
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was caused by electronic parts.
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Today, this number is more than 30 percent
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and it will grow to more than 50 percent by 2030.
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And these new electronic parts and applications
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require new skills and have created a lot of new jobs,
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like the cognitive systems engineer
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who optimizes the interaction between driver and electronic system.
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In 1980, no one had the slightest clue that such a job would ever exist.
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As a matter of fact,
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the overall number of people involved in the production of a car
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has only changed slightly in the last decades,
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in spite of robots and automation.
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So what does this mean?
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Yes, technology will replace a lot of jobs,
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but we will also see a lot of new jobs and new skills on the horizon,
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and that means technology will worsen our overall skill mismatch.
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And this kind of de-averaging
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reveals the crucial challenge for governments and businesses.
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So people, high-skilled people,
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talents, will be the big thing in the next decade.
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If they are the scarce resource, we have to understand them much better.
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Are they actually willing to work abroad?
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What are their job preferences?
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To find out, this year we conducted a global survey
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among more than 200,000 job seekers from 189 countries.
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Migration is certainly one key measure to close a gap,
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at least in the short term,
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so we asked about mobility.
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More than 60 percent of these 200,000 job seekers
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are willing to work abroad.
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For me, a surprisingly high number.
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If you look at the employees aged 21 to 30,
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this number is even higher.
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If you split this number up by country,
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yes, the world is mobile, but only partly.
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The least mobile countries are Russia, Germany and the U.S.
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Now where would these people like to move?
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Number seven is Australia, where 28 percent could imagine moving.
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Then France, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, U.K.,
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and the top choice worldwide is the U.S.
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Now, what are the job preferences of these 200,000 people?
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So, what are they looking for?
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Out of a list of 26 topics, salary is only number eight.
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The top four topics are all around culture.
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Number four,
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having a great relationship with the boss;
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three, enjoying a great work-life balance;
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two, having a great relationship with colleagues;
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and the top priority worldwide
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is being appreciated for your work.
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So, do I get a thank you?
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Not only once a year with the annual bonus payment,
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but every day.
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And now, our global workforce crisis becomes very personal.
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People are looking for recognition.
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Aren't we all looking for recognition in our jobs?
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Now, let me connect the dots.
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We will face a global workforce crisis
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which consists of an overall labor shortage
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plus a huge skill mismatch,
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plus a big cultural challenge.
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And this global workforce crisis is approaching very fast.
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Right now, we are just at the turning point.
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So what can we, what can governments, what can companies do?
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Every company,
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but also every country,
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needs a people strategy,
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and to act on it immediately,
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and such a people strategy consists of four parts.
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Number one, a plan
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for how to forecast supply and demand for different jobs and different skills.
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Workforce planning will become more important than financial planning.
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Two, a plan for how to attract great people:
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generation Y, women, but also retirees.
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Three, a plan for how to educate and upskill them.
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There's a huge upskilling challenge ahead of us.
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And four,
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for how to retain the best people,
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or in other words,
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how to realize an appreciation and relationship culture.
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However, one crucial underlying factor is to change our attitudes.
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Employees are resources, are assets,
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not costs, not head counts,
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not machines,
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not even the Germans.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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