Rainer Strack: The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 — and how to start solving it now

翻译人员: Yixiong Zhu 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

2014 is a very special year for me:

2014对我而言是特殊的一年：

20 years as a consultant,

20年的咨询生涯，

20 years of marriage,

20年的婚姻经历，

and I'm turning 50 in one month.

还有下个月我就要50岁了。

That means I was born in 1964 in a small town in Germany.

我是1964年出生在一个德国小镇。

It was a gray November day,

那是在十一月份一个灰蒙蒙的日子，

and I was overdue.

我已经过了预产期却还没有出生。

The hospital's maternity ward was really stressed out

医院的产房简直忙坏了，

because a lot of babies were born on this gray November day.

因为当天有很多孩子出生。

As a matter of fact,

事实上，

1964年是德国出生率最高的一年：

1964 was the year with the highest birth rate ever in Germany:

more than 1.3 million.

新生婴儿超过130万。

Last year, we just hit over 600,000,

而前一年，只有60万出头，

so half of my number.

我出生这一年的一半而已。

What you can see here is the German age pyramid,

这里你们所看到的是德国的年龄金字塔，

and there, the small black point at the top, that's me.

最顶端有个小黑点，那就是我。

(Laughter) (Applause)

（笑声）（掌声）

In red, you can see the potential working-age population,

红色的是潜在的工龄人群，

so people over 15 and under 65,

也就是15岁以上65岁以下的人。

and I'm actually only interested in this red area.

我感兴趣的其实只是这块红色区域。

Now, let's do a simple simulation

现在，咱们做一个简单模拟，

of how this age structure will develop over the next couple of years.

看看这个年龄结构在未来的几年将如何发展。

As you can see,

你们能看到，

the peak is moving to the right,

高峰向右移动，

and I, with many other baby boomers, will retire in 2030.

而我，连同很多其他婴儿潮出生的人， 将在2030年退休。

By the way, I don't need any forecasts

顺便说一句，预测这块红色区域

of birth rates for predicting this red area.

不需要对出生率进行估计。

The red area,

这块红色区域，

so the potential working-age population in 2030,

2030年潜在的工龄人群，

is already set in stone today,

现在就已经决定了，

except for much higher migration rates.

除非有更高的迁移率。

And if you compare this red area in 2030 with the red area in 2014,

如果你比较2030年和2014年的红色区域，

it is much, much smaller.

你会发现2030年的要小得多。

So before I show you the rest of the world,

在我展示世界其他地方的情况之前，

what does this mean for Germany?

你们觉得这对德国意味着什么？

So what we know from this picture is that the labor supply,

从这个图表中我们知道，劳动力供给，

so people who provide labor,

也就是能够劳动的人，

will go down in Germany, and will go down significantly.

在德国将减少，显著减少。

Now, what about labor demand?

那么，劳动力需求呢？

That's where it gets tricky.

这就有点微妙了。

As you might know, the consultant's favorite answer to any question is,

你们可能知道， 咨询师对任何问题的惯用答案是，

"It depends."

“看情况。”

So I would say it depends.

所以我也得说，这要看情况。

We didn't want to forecast the future.

我们不想去预测未来。

Highly speculative.

有太多不确定性。

We did something else.

我们用了另一种方式。

We looked at the GDP and productivity growth of Germany

我们研究了过去20年

over the last 20 years,

德国的GDP和生产力增长，

and calculated the following scenario:

计算出了以下情形：

if Germany wants to continue this GDP and productivity growth,

如果德国的GDP和生产力想要继续增长，

we could directly calculate

我们可以直接计算出

how many people Germany would need to support this growth.

德国需要多少人来支撑这种增长。

And this is the green line: labor demand.

就是绿色的线：劳动力需求。

So Germany will run into a major talent shortage very quickly.

所以德国很快将出现劳动人口严重短缺。

Eight million people are missing,

800万人的缺口，

which is more than 20 percent of our current workforce,

超出我们现有劳动力人数20%。

so big numbers, really big numbers.

很大的数字，相当大。

And we calculated several scenarios,

我们计算了几种不同的情形，

and the picture always looked like this.

结果都是这样的。

Now, to close the gap,

那么，要缩小缺口，

Germany has to significantly increase migration,

德国需要大量鼓励移民，

get many more women in the workforce,

并让更多女性进入劳动力大军，

increase retirement age —

还要提高退休年龄 —

by the way, we just lowered it this year —

顺便说一句， 我们今年才降低了退休年龄 —

and all these measures at once.

并同时采取这些措施。

If Germany fails here, Germany will stagnate.

如果德国不这样做，德国就会陷入停滞。

We won't grow anymore. Why?

我们的经济将不再增长。为什么？

Because the workers are not there who can generate this growth.

因为没有能够支撑这种增长的劳动力。

And companies will look for talents somewhere else.

企业将要去别处找寻人才。

But where?

从哪里呢？

Now, we simulated labor supply and labor demand

我们模拟了15个世界最大的经济体的

for the largest 15 economies in the world,

劳动力供给和需求，

representing more than 70 percent of world GDP,

这些经济体的总和超过了世界GDP的70%。

and the overall picture looks like this by 2020.

到2020年，总体情况将是这样。

Blue indicates a labor surplus,

蓝色表示劳动力剩余，

red indicates a labor shortfall,

红色表示劳动力短缺，

and gray are those countries which are borderline.

灰色是处在边界的国家。

So by 2020, we still see a labor surplus in some countries,

在2020年，一些国家仍会有劳动力剩余，

like Italy, France, the U.S.,

例如意大利，法国，美国，

but this picture will change dramatically by 2030.

但情况在2030年将发生剧烈变化。

By 2030, we will face a global workforce crisis

到了2030年，我们最大的经济体们

in most of our largest economies,

将面临全球性的劳动力危机，

including three out of the four BRIC countries.

包括四个金砖国家中的三个。

China, with its former one-child policy, will be hit,

中国，采取过独生子女政策， 也将面临这一问题。

as well as Brazil and Russia.

巴西和俄罗斯也一样。

Now, to tell the truth,

然而，坦率的说，

in reality, the situation will be even more challenging.

真相是，问题还要更加严峻。

What you can see here are average numbers.

这里你们所看到的是平均数字。

We de-averaged them

我们将其去平均化，

and broke them down into different skill levels,

细分到不同的劳动技能水平，

and what we found

这样我们就会发现

were even higher shortfalls for high-skilled people

高技能劳动力将面临更大缺口，

and a partial surplus for low-skilled workers.

低技能劳动力会有部分剩余。

So on top of an overall labor shortage,

所以在整体性劳动力缺乏的基础上，

we will face a big skill mismatch in the future,

我们在未来还将面临劳动技能的严重不匹配。

and this means huge challenges

这意味着政府和企业将

in terms of education, qualification,

在教育，资格认证和培训中

upskilling for governments and companies.

遇到巨大挑战。

Now, the next thing we looked into was robots, automation, technology.

之后，我们研究了机器人，自动化和科技。

Will technology change this picture and boost productivity?

科技能否改变这一状况并提高生产力？

Now, the short answer would be

简单的说，答案是

that our numbers already include a significant growth in productivity

我们的数字已经考虑了 科技所能带来的大幅度

driven by technology.

生产力增长。

A long answer would go like this.

完整的答案是这样的。

Let's take Germany again.

再举德国为例。

The Germans have a certain reputation in the world

德国人的工作效率

when it comes to productivity.

在世界上享有特别的声誉。

In the '90s, I worked in our Boston office for almost two years,

90年代，我在波士顿分部工作了将近两年，

and when I left, an old senior partner told me, literally,

我走的时候，一位年长的合伙人跟我说， 这是他的原话，

"Send me more of these Germans, they work like machines."

“多给我找这样的德国人，干活跟机器似的。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

That was 1998.

那是1998年。

Sixteen years later, you'd probably say the opposite.

16年后，你听到的可能正相反。

"Send me more of these machines. They work like Germans."

“多给我找这种机器，干活跟德国人似的。”

(Laughter) (Applause)

（笑声）（掌声）

Technology will replace a lot of jobs, regular jobs.

科技将取代很多岗位，普通岗位。

Not only in the production industry,

不仅在生产领域，

but even office workers are in jeopardy

办公室白领也面临危机，

and might be replaced by robots,

也有可能被机器人，

artificial intelligence, big data, or automation.

人工智能，大数据，或自动化取代。

So the key question is not if technology replaces some of these jobs,

所以关键问题不是科技是否会取代某些岗位，

but when, how fast, and to what extent?

而是什么时候取代，取代得多快， 取代到什么程度？

Or in other words,

换句话讲，

will technology help us to solve this global workforce crisis?

科技能否帮助我们解决全球性劳动力危机？

Yes and no.

能，也不能。

This is a more sophisticated version of "it depends."

这是“看情况”的升级版本。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Let's take the automotive industry as an example,

以汽车业为例，

because there, more than 40 percent of industrial robots are already working

因为在这个行业中， 超过40%的工业机器人已经在工作，

and automation has already taken place.

自动化也已经实现。

In 1980, less than 10 percent of the production cost of a car

1980年，只有不到10%的汽车生产成本

was caused by electronic parts.

是由电子部件产生。

Today, this number is more than 30 percent

今天，这个数字已经超过30%。

and it will grow to more than 50 percent by 2030.

到2030年，这个数字将上涨到50%以上。

And these new electronic parts and applications

这些新的电子部件和应用

require new skills and have created a lot of new jobs,

需要新的劳动技能并创造了很多新的岗位，

like the cognitive systems engineer

例如认知系统工程师，

who optimizes the interaction between driver and electronic system.

其职责是优化驾驶员与电子系统之间的互动。

In 1980, no one had the slightest clue that such a job would ever exist.

1980年，没人会想到将出现这种工作。

As a matter of fact,

事实上，

the overall number of people involved in the production of a car

参与汽车生产的总人数

has only changed slightly in the last decades,

在过去几十年中只有微小的变化，

in spite of robots and automation.

即便出现了机器人和自动化。

So what does this mean?

那这意味着什么呢？

Yes, technology will replace a lot of jobs,

的确，科技能取代很多岗位，

but we will also see a lot of new jobs and new skills on the horizon,

但未来我们也能看到很多新的岗位和技能，

and that means technology will worsen our overall skill mismatch.

这意味着科技会加剧劳动技能的不匹配。

And this kind of de-averaging

这种反平均化

reveals the crucial challenge for governments and businesses.

揭示了政府和商业机构面临的关键性挑战。

So people, high-skilled people,

因此，人，高技能的人群，

talents, will be the big thing in the next decade.

人才，将是未来十年的重中之重。

If they are the scarce resource, we have to understand them much better.

如果他们是稀缺资源， 那我们就要更好的了解他们。

Are they actually willing to work abroad?

他们真的愿意去海外工作么？

What are their job preferences?

他们对工作有什么偏好？

To find out, this year we conducted a global survey

为了找到答案，今年我们进行了一项全球调查，

among more than 200,000 job seekers from 189 countries.

对象是来自189个国家的超过20万名求职者。

Migration is certainly one key measure to close a gap,

迁移当然是缩小缺口的一个关键性措施，

at least in the short term,

起码短期而言是这样，

so we asked about mobility.

所以我们问到了流动性。

More than 60 percent of these 200,000 job seekers

在这20万求职者中，超过60%的人

are willing to work abroad.

愿意去国外工作。

For me, a surprisingly high number.

对我而言，这个数字出奇的高。

If you look at the employees aged 21 to 30,

如果只关注21到30岁之间的求职者，

this number is even higher.

那这个数字还要更高。

If you split this number up by country,

如果按国家来看，

yes, the world is mobile, but only partly.

的确，世界范围的流动性很强， 但仅限于部分地区。

The least mobile countries are Russia, Germany and the U.S.

流动性最低的国家是俄罗斯，德国和美国。

Now where would these people like to move?

那么，这些人想搬去哪儿工作？

Number seven is Australia, where 28 percent could imagine moving.

排在第七位的是澳大利亚， 有28%的人打算去那里工作。

Then France, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, U.K.,

然后是法国，瑞士，德国，加拿大，英国，

and the top choice worldwide is the U.S.

世界范围内的首选是美国。

Now, what are the job preferences of these 200,000 people?

那么，这20万人的工作偏好有哪些？

So, what are they looking for?

他们看重什么？

Out of a list of 26 topics, salary is only number eight.

在26项条目中，薪水只排在第八位。

The top four topics are all around culture.

前四项都跟文化有关。

Number four,

第四位，

having a great relationship with the boss;

与上司保持良好关系；

three, enjoying a great work-life balance;

第三位，能够很好的平衡工作和生活；

two, having a great relationship with colleagues;

第二位，与同事保持良好关系；

and the top priority worldwide

而全世界的人最看重的都是，

is being appreciated for your work.

能够做一份体面的工作。

So, do I get a thank you?

也就是说，我是否会得到他人的尊重和感激？

Not only once a year with the annual bonus payment,

不是一年一次拿年终奖，

but every day.

而是每一天都如此。

And now, our global workforce crisis becomes very personal.

如今，我们的全球性劳动力危机 已经非常私人化。

People are looking for recognition.

人们需要获得认可。

Aren't we all looking for recognition in our jobs?

难道我们在工作中没有寻求认可吗？

Now, let me connect the dots.

让我把关键点梳理一下。

We will face a global workforce crisis

我们将面临全球性劳动力危机，

which consists of an overall labor shortage

包括总体性劳动力缺乏，

plus a huge skill mismatch,

外加严重的劳动技能不匹配，

plus a big cultural challenge.

还有巨大的文化挑战。

And this global workforce crisis is approaching very fast.

这个全球性劳动力危机已经迫在眉睫。

Right now, we are just at the turning point.

现在，我们正处在一个转折点。

So what can we, what can governments, what can companies do?

那么我们，政府和企业能够做些什么呢？

Every company,

每一个企业，

but also every country,

以及每一个国家，

needs a people strategy,

都需要有人才战略，

and to act on it immediately,

并立即付诸实施。

and such a people strategy consists of four parts.

这样的人才战略分四部分。

Number one, a plan

一，计划

for how to forecast supply and demand for different jobs and different skills.

如何预测不同岗位和技能的供给和需求。

Workforce planning will become more important than financial planning.

劳动力计划将比财务计划更加重要。

Two, a plan for how to attract great people:

二，计划如何吸引高水平人才：

generation Y, women, but also retirees.

Y世代（译注：专指出生于1981-2000年的人）， 女性，以及退休人士。

Three, a plan for how to educate and upskill them.

三，计划如何对他们进行教育和培训。

There's a huge upskilling challenge ahead of us.

我们面临着巨大的培训挑战。

And four,

四，

for how to retain the best people,

如何留住最好的人才，

or in other words,

换句话讲，

how to realize an appreciation and relationship culture.

如何创建一种能够让人获得赏识并 建立良好人际关系的文化氛围。

However, one crucial underlying factor is to change our attitudes.

但是，一个关键的潜在因素是 要改变我们的态度。

Employees are resources, are assets,

员工是资源，是资产，

not costs, not head counts,

不是费用，不是人头，

not machines,

不是机器，

not even the Germans.

甚至不是德国人。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）