Rainer Strack: The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 — and how to start solving it now

212,368 views

2014-12-03 ・ TED


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Rainer Strack: The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 — and how to start solving it now

212,368 views ・ 2014-12-03

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG Recezent: Ivan Stamenković
00:12
2014 is a very special year for me:
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2014. je stvarno jako posebna godina za mene:
20 godina kao konzultant,
00:16
20 years as a consultant,
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20 godina braka,
00:18
20 years of marriage,
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00:19
and I'm turning 50 in one month.
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i slaviti ću 50 godina kroz jedan mjesec.
00:22
That means I was born in 1964 in a small town in Germany.
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To znači da sam rođen 1964. u malom gradu u Njemačkoj.
00:28
It was a gray November day,
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Bio je to sivi dan u studenom,
00:30
and I was overdue.
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a ja sam zakasnio.
00:32
The hospital's maternity ward was really stressed out
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Osoblje rodilišta je zaista bilo preopterećeno
00:35
because a lot of babies were born on this gray November day.
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jer se jako puno beba rodilo tog sivog dana u studenom.
00:40
As a matter of fact,
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Zapravo,
1964. je bila godina s najvećim natalitetom u Njemačkoj ikada:
00:42
1964 was the year with the highest birth rate ever in Germany:
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00:46
more than 1.3 million.
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više od 1,3 milijuna.
00:48
Last year, we just hit over 600,000,
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Prošle godine smo jedva premašili 600.000,
00:51
so half of my number.
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dakle pola moje brojke.
00:53
What you can see here is the German age pyramid,
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Ovo što možete ovdje vidjeti jest njemačka starosna piramida,
00:57
and there, the small black point at the top, that's me.
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a ova mala crna točka na vrhu, to sam ja.
01:00
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smijeh) (Pljesak)
01:06
In red, you can see the potential working-age population,
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U crvenom možete vidjeti potencijalno radno sposobno stanovništvo,
01:10
so people over 15 and under 65,
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dakle ljude od preko 15 do ispod 65,
01:14
and I'm actually only interested in this red area.
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i ja sam u stvari zainteresiran samo za crveno područje.
01:18
Now, let's do a simple simulation
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Napravimo sada jednostavnu simulaciju
01:20
of how this age structure will develop over the next couple of years.
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kako će se razvijati starosna struktura u slijedećih nekoliko godina.
01:24
As you can see,
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Kao što možete vidjeti,
01:26
the peak is moving to the right,
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vrh se kreće udesno,
01:28
and I, with many other baby boomers, will retire in 2030.
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a ja ću se, s mnogo drugih baby boomera, umiroviti 2030.
01:35
By the way, I don't need any forecasts
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Uz put, ne trebam nikakva predviđanja
01:37
of birth rates for predicting this red area.
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nataliteta kako bi predvidio ovo crveno polje.
01:40
The red area,
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Ovo crveno polje,
01:41
so the potential working-age population in 2030,
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dakle potencijalno radno sposobno stanovništvo 2030.
01:45
is already set in stone today,
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je već sada čvrsto opredjeljeno,
01:48
except for much higher migration rates.
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osim u slučaju bitno višeg stupnja migracije.
01:52
And if you compare this red area in 2030 with the red area in 2014,
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I ako usporedite to crveno polje u 2030. s crvenim poljem 2014.
01:58
it is much, much smaller.
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ono je bitno, bitno manje.
02:01
So before I show you the rest of the world,
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Prije nego vam pokažem ostatak svijeta,
02:03
what does this mean for Germany?
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što to znači za Njemačku?
02:07
So what we know from this picture is that the labor supply,
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Ono što znamo iz ove slike jest da će ponuda radne snage,
02:11
so people who provide labor,
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dakle ljudi koji osiguravaju rad,
02:13
will go down in Germany, and will go down significantly.
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u Njemačkoj smanjiti i to značajno.
02:16
Now, what about labor demand?
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Što je s potrebom za radnom snagom?
02:19
That's where it gets tricky.
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Tu priča postaje složenija.
02:22
As you might know, the consultant's favorite answer to any question is,
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Kao što možda znate, omiljen odgovor konzultanta na bilo koje pitanje je:
02:26
"It depends."
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"Zavisi."
02:28
So I would say it depends.
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Tako da ću reći kako zavisi.
02:31
We didn't want to forecast the future.
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Nismo željeli predvidjeti budućnost.
02:33
Highly speculative.
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To je jako špekulativno.
02:34
We did something else.
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Napravili smo nešto drugo.
02:36
We looked at the GDP and productivity growth of Germany
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Promatrali smo BDP i rast proizvodnje u Nemačkoj
02:39
over the last 20 years,
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u razdoblju od zadnjih 20 godina,
02:41
and calculated the following scenario:
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i izračunali slijedeći scenarij:
02:44
if Germany wants to continue this GDP and productivity growth,
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ako Njemačka želi održati isti BDP i rast proizvodnje,
02:48
we could directly calculate
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možemo direktno izračunati
02:50
how many people Germany would need to support this growth.
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koliko će ljudi biti potrebno za održanje ovakvog rasta u Njemačkoj.
02:54
And this is the green line: labor demand.
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A to je zelena linija: potražnja radne snage.
02:57
So Germany will run into a major talent shortage very quickly.
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Tako da će se Njemačka vrlo brzo suočiti sa značajnim nedostatkom talenta.
03:03
Eight million people are missing,
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8 milijuna ljudi nedostaje,
03:05
which is more than 20 percent of our current workforce,
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što je preko 20 posto trenutne radne snage,
03:07
so big numbers, really big numbers.
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dakle velika brojka, stvarno velika brojka.
03:10
And we calculated several scenarios,
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I izračunali smo nekoliko scenarija,
03:12
and the picture always looked like this.
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a rezultat uvijek izgleda ovako.
03:16
Now, to close the gap,
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Kako bi prevladala jaz,
03:18
Germany has to significantly increase migration,
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Njemačka mora značajno povećati migraciju,
03:22
get many more women in the workforce,
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dobiti bitno više žena u radnoj snazi,
03:24
increase retirement age —
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povećati dobnu granicu odlaska u mirovinu --
03:26
by the way, we just lowered it this year —
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usput, upravo smo to smanjili --
03:28
and all these measures at once.
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i potrebno je uvesti sve ove mjere odjednom.
03:31
If Germany fails here, Germany will stagnate.
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Ako Njemačka ovdje ne uspije, Njemačka će stagnirati.
03:35
We won't grow anymore. Why?
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Nećemo više rasti. Zašto?
03:38
Because the workers are not there who can generate this growth.
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Zato što nema radnika koji mogu generirati taj rast.
03:41
And companies will look for talents somewhere else.
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I kompanije će talente tražiti negde drugdje.
03:45
But where?
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Ali gdje?
03:48
Now, we simulated labor supply and labor demand
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Simulirali smo ponudu i potražnju radne snage
03:52
for the largest 15 economies in the world,
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za 15 najvećih svjetskih privreda,
03:55
representing more than 70 percent of world GDP,
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koje predstavljaju više od 70 posto svjetskog BDP-a,
03:59
and the overall picture looks like this by 2020.
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i sveobuhvatna slika do 2020. izgleda ovako:
04:03
Blue indicates a labor surplus,
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plava označava višak radne snage,
04:06
red indicates a labor shortfall,
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crvena označava manjak radne snage,
04:08
and gray are those countries which are borderline.
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a siva, one zemlje koje se nalaze na granici.
04:12
So by 2020, we still see a labor surplus in some countries,
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Tako da do 2020., još uvijek vidimo višak radne snage u nekim zemljama,
04:18
like Italy, France, the U.S.,
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poput Italije, Francuske, SAD-a,
04:20
but this picture will change dramatically by 2030.
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ali ova slika će se do 2030. dramatično promijeniti.
04:25
By 2030, we will face a global workforce crisis
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Do 2030. suočiti ćemo se s globalnom krizom radne snage
04:29
in most of our largest economies,
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u većini naših najvećih privreda,
04:32
including three out of the four BRIC countries.
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uključujući i tri od četiri zemlje BRIC-a.
04:35
China, with its former one-child policy, will be hit,
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Kina zbog svoje politike jednog djeteta,
04:38
as well as Brazil and Russia.
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kao i Brazil i Rusija.
04:42
Now, to tell the truth,
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Ali da budemo potpuno iskreni
04:46
in reality, the situation will be even more challenging.
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u stvarnosti, situacija će biti još izazovnija.
04:50
What you can see here are average numbers.
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Ono što ovdje možete vidjeti su prosječne brojke.
04:54
We de-averaged them
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Mi smo ih ponovno razmatrali
04:56
and broke them down into different skill levels,
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i razložili na različite razine kvalifikacije,
04:58
and what we found
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i ono što smo pronašli
04:59
were even higher shortfalls for high-skilled people
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je veći nedostatak visoko kvalificiranih ljudi
05:03
and a partial surplus for low-skilled workers.
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i djelomičan višak radnika s niskom kvalifikacijom.
05:08
So on top of an overall labor shortage,
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Tako ćemo se pored ukupnog nedostatka radne snage,
05:11
we will face a big skill mismatch in the future,
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u budućnosti suočiti s velikom nesrazmjerom u kvalifikacijama,
05:15
and this means huge challenges
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a to predstavlja velike izazove
05:17
in terms of education, qualification,
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u smislu obrazovanja, kvalifikacije,
05:19
upskilling for governments and companies.
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dodatnog obrazovanja za javne potrebe i potrebe poduzeća.
05:24
Now, the next thing we looked into was robots, automation, technology.
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Sljedeća stvar koju smo promatrali bili su roboti, automatizacija i tehnologija.
05:30
Will technology change this picture and boost productivity?
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Hoće li tehnologija promijeniti ovu sliku i povećati produktivnost?
05:35
Now, the short answer would be
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Pa, kratak odgovor bi bio
05:37
that our numbers already include a significant growth in productivity
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da naše brojke već uključuju značajan rast produktivnosti
05:42
driven by technology.
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pokrenut tehnologijom.
05:45
A long answer would go like this.
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A dugačak odgovor bi izgledao ovako:
05:48
Let's take Germany again.
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uzmimo ponovno Njemačku.
05:51
The Germans have a certain reputation in the world
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Nijemci imaju određenu reputaciju u svijetu
05:53
when it comes to productivity.
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kada je riječ o produktivnosti.
05:56
In the '90s, I worked in our Boston office for almost two years,
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Tijekom 90-ih skoro sam dvije godine radio u našem bostonskom uredu,
06:00
and when I left, an old senior partner told me, literally,
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i kada sam odlazio, stariji partner mi je doslovno rekao:
06:04
"Send me more of these Germans, they work like machines."
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"Pošalji mi još tih Nijemaca, oni rade kao strojevi."
06:08
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:12
That was 1998.
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To je bilo 1998.
06:16
Sixteen years later, you'd probably say the opposite.
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16 godina kasnije, vjerojatno biste rekli obrnuto:
06:19
"Send me more of these machines. They work like Germans."
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"Pošalji mi više takvih strojeva. Oni rade kao Nijemci."
(Smijeh) (Pljesak)
06:23
(Laughter) (Applause)
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06:30
Technology will replace a lot of jobs, regular jobs.
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Tehnologija će zamijeniti puno poslova, regularnih poslova.
06:34
Not only in the production industry,
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Ne samo u proizvodnim industrijama,
06:36
but even office workers are in jeopardy
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već su i uredski radnici u opasnosti
06:38
and might be replaced by robots,
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i možda će ih zamijeniti roboti,
06:41
artificial intelligence, big data, or automation.
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umjetna intligencija, veliki podatci, ili automatizacija.
06:45
So the key question is not if technology replaces some of these jobs,
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Tako da ključno pitanje nije hoće li tehnologija zamijeniti neke od ovih poslova,
06:50
but when, how fast, and to what extent?
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već kada će, koliko brzo, i u kojem obujmu?
06:53
Or in other words,
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Ili drugim riječima,
06:55
will technology help us to solve this global workforce crisis?
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hoće li nam tehnologija pomoći riješiti ovu globalnu krizu?
07:01
Yes and no.
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Da i ne.
07:03
This is a more sophisticated version of "it depends."
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Ovo je sofisticiranija verzija "ovisi".
(Smijeh)
07:06
(Laughter)
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07:07
Let's take the automotive industry as an example,
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Uzmimo za primjer automobilsku industriju,
07:12
because there, more than 40 percent of industrial robots are already working
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jer tu već radi 40 posto industrijskih robota
07:16
and automation has already taken place.
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i automatizacija već funkcionira.
07:21
In 1980, less than 10 percent of the production cost of a car
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1980., manje od 10 posto cijene proizvodnje automobila,
07:26
was caused by electronic parts.
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bilo je povezano s elektroničkim dijelovima.
07:29
Today, this number is more than 30 percent
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Danas je ta brojka veća od 30 posto
07:32
and it will grow to more than 50 percent by 2030.
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i rasti će na više od 50 posto do 2030.
07:37
And these new electronic parts and applications
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A ti novi elektronički dijelovi i aplikacije
07:41
require new skills and have created a lot of new jobs,
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traže nove vještine i kreirali su jako puno novih poslova,
07:45
like the cognitive systems engineer
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poput kognitivnog sustavskog inžinjera
07:48
who optimizes the interaction between driver and electronic system.
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koji optimizira interakciju između vozača i elektroničkog sustava.
07:54
In 1980, no one had the slightest clue that such a job would ever exist.
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1980. nitko nije imao ideju da će takav posao ikada postojati.
08:01
As a matter of fact,
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U stvari,
08:03
the overall number of people involved in the production of a car
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ukupan broj ljudi koji su uključeni u proizvodnju automobila
08:07
has only changed slightly in the last decades,
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samo se neznatno promijenio tijekom poslednjih desetljeća,
08:10
in spite of robots and automation.
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unatoč robotima i automatizaciji.
08:13
So what does this mean?
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Što to znači?
08:15
Yes, technology will replace a lot of jobs,
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Da, tehnologija će zamijeniti mnoge poslove,
08:17
but we will also see a lot of new jobs and new skills on the horizon,
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ali uskoro ćemo na horizontu vidjeti i puno novih poslova i novih vještina,
08:23
and that means technology will worsen our overall skill mismatch.
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što znači kako će tehnologija pogoršati ukupni nesrazmjer u kvalifikacijama.
08:29
And this kind of de-averaging
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I ovakva vrsta uprosječavanja
08:31
reveals the crucial challenge for governments and businesses.
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otkriva presudni izazov za vlade i privredu.
08:37
So people, high-skilled people,
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Tako će visoko obrazovani ljudi,
08:41
talents, will be the big thing in the next decade.
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talenti, imati veliki značaj tijekom sljedećeg desetljeća.
08:45
If they are the scarce resource, we have to understand them much better.
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Ukoliko oni predstavljaju oskudan resurs, moramo ih bitno bolje razumjeti.
08:50
Are they actually willing to work abroad?
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Jesu li oni zaista voljni raditi u inozemstvu?
08:53
What are their job preferences?
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Koje su im poslovne preferencije?
08:56
To find out, this year we conducted a global survey
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Kako bi to spoznali, ove godine smo proveli globalno istraživanje
09:01
among more than 200,000 job seekers from 189 countries.
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među 200.000 ljudi iz 189 zemalja koji traže posao.
09:08
Migration is certainly one key measure to close a gap,
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Migracija je zasigurno jedna od ključnih mjera za savladavanje jaza,
09:13
at least in the short term,
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barem kratkoročno,
09:15
so we asked about mobility.
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tako smo ih pitali o mobilnosti.
09:17
More than 60 percent of these 200,000 job seekers
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Više od 60 posto od ovih 200.000 ljudi koji traže posao
09:22
are willing to work abroad.
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spremno je raditi u inozemstvu.
09:24
For me, a surprisingly high number.
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Za mene iznenađujuće visoka brojka.
09:26
If you look at the employees aged 21 to 30,
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Ukoliko promatramo zaposlenike između 21 i 30 godina,
09:30
this number is even higher.
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ta brojka je i veća.
09:32
If you split this number up by country,
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Ukoliko tu brojku razdijelite po zemljama,
09:36
yes, the world is mobile, but only partly.
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da, svijet je mobilan, ali tek djelomično.
09:41
The least mobile countries are Russia, Germany and the U.S.
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Najmanje mobilne države su: Rusija, Nemačka i SAD.
09:46
Now where would these people like to move?
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Gdje bi se ti ljudi željeli odseliti?
09:49
Number seven is Australia, where 28 percent could imagine moving.
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Na sedmom mjestu je Australija, u kojoj 28 posto ljudi može zamisliti preseljenje.
09:54
Then France, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, U.K.,
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Onda slijede: Francuska, Švicarska, Njemačka, Kanada, Velika Britanija
09:58
and the top choice worldwide is the U.S.
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i najbolji izbor širom svijeta su Sjedinjene Države.
10:02
Now, what are the job preferences of these 200,000 people?
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A kakvom poslu tih 200.000 ljudi daje prednost?
10:06
So, what are they looking for?
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Što to oni traže?
10:09
Out of a list of 26 topics, salary is only number eight.
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Na listi od 26 područja, plaća je tek na osmom mestu.
10:15
The top four topics are all around culture.
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Prve četiri teme vezane su uz kulturu.
10:20
Number four,
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Na četvrtom mjestu,
10:21
having a great relationship with the boss;
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nalazi se dobar odnos s nadređenim;
10:24
three, enjoying a great work-life balance;
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trećem: ravnoteža između privatnog života i rada;
10:28
two, having a great relationship with colleagues;
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drugom: dobar odnos s kolegama;
10:32
and the top priority worldwide
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a najveći prioritet širom svijeta
10:35
is being appreciated for your work.
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je poštovanje vašeg rada.
10:40
So, do I get a thank you?
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Dobijem li zahvalnost?
10:43
Not only once a year with the annual bonus payment,
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Ne samo jednom godišnje kroz godišnji bonus,
10:46
but every day.
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već svaki dan.
10:48
And now, our global workforce crisis becomes very personal.
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I sada, naša globalna kriza radne snage postaje vrlo osobna.
10:53
People are looking for recognition.
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Ljudi traže priznanje.
10:56
Aren't we all looking for recognition in our jobs?
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Zar svi mi ne želimo priznanje na svojim radnim mjestima?
11:03
Now, let me connect the dots.
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Sada dopustite da povežem točke.
11:06
We will face a global workforce crisis
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Suočit ćemo se s globalnom krizom radne snage
11:09
which consists of an overall labor shortage
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koja će se sastojati od općeg nedostatka radne snage
11:12
plus a huge skill mismatch,
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te velikog nesrazmjera u kvalifikacijama,
11:14
plus a big cultural challenge.
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plus velikog kulturološkog izazova.
11:17
And this global workforce crisis is approaching very fast.
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A ta globalna kriza radne snage nam se približava velikom brzinom.
11:21
Right now, we are just at the turning point.
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Baš sada smo na prekretnici.
11:23
So what can we, what can governments, what can companies do?
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Dakle što mi možemo napraviti, što mogu napraviti vlade a što tvrtke?
11:28
Every company,
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Svaka tvrtka,
11:29
but also every country,
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ali i svaka država,
11:31
needs a people strategy,
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treba strategiju ljudskih resursa,
11:33
and to act on it immediately,
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koju mora odmah primijeniti,
11:36
and such a people strategy consists of four parts.
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a takva strategija ljudskih resursa se sastoji iz četri dijela.
11:40
Number one, a plan
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Na prvom mjestu je plan
11:42
for how to forecast supply and demand for different jobs and different skills.
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kako predvidjeti ponudu i potražnju različitih poslova i vještina.
11:48
Workforce planning will become more important than financial planning.
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Planiranje radne snage će postati važnije od financijskog predviđanja.
11:54
Two, a plan for how to attract great people:
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Na drugom mjestu je plan privlačenja izvanrednih ljudi:
11:57
generation Y, women, but also retirees.
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generacije Y, žena, ali čak i umirovljenika.
12:01
Three, a plan for how to educate and upskill them.
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Treći je plan njihovog obrazovanja i dodatnog obućavanja.
12:05
There's a huge upskilling challenge ahead of us.
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Očekuje nas veliki izazov vezan uz dodatno obrazovanje.
12:09
And four,
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I kao četvrto,
12:11
for how to retain the best people,
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kako zadržati najbolje ljude,
12:14
or in other words,
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drugim riječima,
12:15
how to realize an appreciation and relationship culture.
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kako ostvariti kulturu poštivanja i dobrih odnosa.
12:23
However, one crucial underlying factor is to change our attitudes.
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Ipak, presudan osnovni čimbenik je promjena naših stavova.
12:30
Employees are resources, are assets,
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Zaposleni su resurs, oni su imovina,
12:34
not costs, not head counts,
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a ne trošak, oni nisu brojke,
12:37
not machines,
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nisu strojevi,
12:38
not even the Germans.
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pa čak ni Nijemci.
12:40
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
12:41
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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