Rainer Strack: The surprising workforce crisis of 2030 — and how to start solving it now

譯者: FBC GLOBAL 審譯者: Geoff Chen

2014 is a very special year for me:

2014 年，在我眼裡 這是不同尋常的一年：

20 years as a consultant,

我從事諮詢師工作已有二十載，

20 years of marriage,

2014 年也是我結婚二十週年，

and I'm turning 50 in one month.

還有一個月我就要年滿五十週歲。

That means I was born in 1964 in a small town in Germany.

1964 年，我出生在一個德國小鎮上。

It was a gray November day,

這一天恰逢十一月，天色灰濛濛的。

and I was overdue.

我出生時已超出了預產期。

The hospital's maternity ward was really stressed out

醫院的婦產科病房早已人滿為患，

because a lot of babies were born on this gray November day.

因為這一天出生的嬰兒過多。

As a matter of fact,

實不相瞞，

1964 was the year with the highest birth rate ever in Germany:

1964 年是德國有史以來 出生率最高的一年：

more than 1.3 million.

這一年，有超過 130 萬嬰兒降臨人世。

Last year, we just hit over 600,000,

而去年德國僅有 60 多萬嬰兒出生，

so half of my number.

只有 1964 年的一半。

What you can see here is the German age pyramid,

請大家看這裡， 這是一座德國的年齡金字塔，

and there, the small black point at the top, that's me.

那裡頂上有一個小黑點，就是我。

(Laughter) (Applause)

（笑聲）（掌聲）

In red, you can see the potential working-age population,

紅色部分是潛在的適齡工作人口，

so people over 15 and under 65,

介於 15 至 65 週歲之間，

and I'm actually only interested in this red area.

實際上，我只對這一紅色區域感興趣。

Now, let's do a simple simulation

目前，讓我們來做一個簡單的模擬

of how this age structure will develop over the next couple of years.

詮釋這一年齡結構在今後若干年 會呈現什麼樣的發展勢頭。

As you can see,

大家可以看到，

the peak is moving to the right,

最高點往右移動，

and I, with many other baby boomers, will retire in 2030.

而我和其他嬰兒潮中出生的同齡人 一樣將在 2030 年退休。

By the way, I don't need any forecasts

便說一句，我不需要為預測這一紅色區域

of birth rates for predicting this red area.

而對出生率作任何預測。

The red area,

這一紅色區域，

so the potential working-age population in 2030,

2030 年潛在的適齡工作人口，

is already set in stone today,

其實今天早已塵埃落定，

except for much higher migration rates.

除了移民率顯著提高外。

And if you compare this red area in 2030 with the red area in 2014,

大家將 2030 年時這一紅色區域 與 2014 年時的紅色區域相比，

it is much, much smaller.

會發現顯然小得多。

So before I show you the rest of the world,

因此，在我向大家展示 世界其他地方的情況前，

what does this mean for Germany?

這對於德國而言意味著什麼？

So what we know from this picture is that the labor supply,

因此，我們可以從這張圖中 獲悉的是勞動力供應狀況，

so people who provide labor,

因此，勞動力人口，

will go down in Germany, and will go down significantly.

在德國將呈下降趨勢，而且 這一趨勢會越來越明顯。

Now, what about labor demand?

目前，勞動力需求怎麼樣？

That's where it gets tricky.

這正是令人難以捉摸的地方。

As you might know, the consultant's favorite answer to any question is,

大家可能知道，對於任何問題， 諮詢師最喜歡的回答是，

"It depends."

「視情況而定。」

So I would say it depends.

因此，我會說視情況而定。

We didn't want to forecast the future.

我不願意預測未來。

Highly speculative.

這非常耐人尋味。

We did something else.

而我做了其他事情。

We looked at the GDP and productivity growth of Germany

我們關注過去二十年間德國 的國內生產總值

over the last 20 years,

與生產率增長狀況，

and calculated the following scenario:

並估算接下來的情形：

if Germany wants to continue this GDP and productivity growth,

如果德國希望延續這一 GDP 與生產率，

we could directly calculate

我可以直接估算

how many people Germany would need to support this growth.

在德國得需要多少人 才能支援這一增長勢頭。

And this is the green line: labor demand.

這條綠線表示勞動力需求。

So Germany will run into a major talent shortage very quickly.

德國將進入一個人才嚴重匱乏的時期。

Eight million people are missing,

人口將減少整整八百萬，

which is more than 20 percent of our current workforce,

這個數字超過德國目前 勞動力人口的 20%，

so big numbers, really big numbers.

這個數字相當驚人，高得令人咋舌。

And we calculated several scenarios,

與此同時，我們估算了若干情形，

and the picture always looked like this.

情況總是如此。

Now, to close the gap,

目前，為了彌補差距，

Germany has to significantly increase migration,

德國必須放寬移民限制， 增加移民人數，

get many more women in the workforce,

讓更多的婦女參加工作，

increase retirement age —

提高退休年齡──

by the way, we just lowered it this year —

順便說一句，我們今年剛剛 延遲了退休年齡

and all these measures at once.

並同時出臺了一切相關措施。

If Germany fails here, Germany will stagnate.

倘若德國在這方面的努力失敗， 德國將會停滯不前，陷入蕭條。

We won't grow anymore. Why?

我們不會再有任何發展。原因何在？

Because the workers are not there who can generate this growth.

由於發展所需的工人數量供不應求。

And companies will look for talents somewhere else.

公司、企業不得不另闢蹊徑，招募人才。

But where?

從哪裡招募人才呢？

Now, we simulated labor supply and labor demand

現在讓我們模擬一下全球 十五個經濟體的

for the largest 15 economies in the world,

勞動力供求關係，

representing more than 70 percent of world GDP,

這些經濟體的 GDP 占全球 GDP 總量的 70% 以上，

and the overall picture looks like this by 2020.

截至 2020 的整體情況就像這個圖。

Blue indicates a labor surplus,

藍色的部分表示有勞動力剩餘的國家，

red indicates a labor shortfall,

紅色的部分表示勞動力短缺的國家，

and gray are those countries which are borderline.

而灰色的部分則表示勞動力 介於剩餘和短缺之間的國家。

So by 2020, we still see a labor surplus in some countries,

因此，截至 2020 年，我們依然可以看到 一些國家會出現勞動力剩餘狀況。

like Italy, France, the U.S.,

像義大利、法國和美國，

but this picture will change dramatically by 2030.

但是，這張圖會在 2030 年 發生巨大的變化。

By 2030, we will face a global workforce crisis

截至 2030 年，全球大多數大型經濟體

in most of our largest economies,

包括金磚四國中的三個國家，

including three out of the four BRIC countries.

會面臨全球性的勞動力危機。

China, with its former one-child policy, will be hit,

中國曾長期堅持奉行獨生子女 政策，屆時將首當其衝，

as well as Brazil and Russia.

與此同時，巴西和俄羅斯也難以倖免。

Now, to tell the truth,

眼下，說句大實話，

in reality, the situation will be even more challenging.

實際形勢甚至會嚴峻得多。

What you can see here are average numbers.

我們在這裡看到的只是平均數字。

We de-averaged them

我們不要平均化

and broke them down into different skill levels,

而是把這些數位分解成 不同的技術水準，

and what we found

如此一來，

were even higher shortfalls for high-skilled people

我們便不難發現高技術人才 短缺甚至更嚴重，

and a partial surplus for low-skilled workers.

而低技術工人只是略有剩餘。

So on top of an overall labor shortage,

因此，整個勞動力短缺問題中 最嚴重的是

we will face a big skill mismatch in the future,

我們將來會面臨嚴峻的技術失衡，

and this means huge challenges

這就意味著政府和公司

in terms of education, qualification,

在教育、資質認定、技能提升方面

upskilling for governments and companies.

將面臨巨大的挑戰。

Now, the next thing we looked into was robots, automation, technology.

目前，我們探討的下一個問題 是機器人、自動化和科學技術。

Will technology change this picture and boost productivity?

技術變革是否有助於改變 這一狀況並提高生產率？

Now, the short answer would be

目前，簡單的回答是

that our numbers already include a significant growth in productivity

我們的數字早已證明科學技術

driven by technology.

促進了生產率的顯著發展。

A long answer would go like this.

而冗長的回答也不過如此。

Let's take Germany again.

讓我們再把話題轉回到德國。

The Germans have a certain reputation in the world

德國的生產率在全世界

when it comes to productivity.

聲名顯赫。

In the '90s, I worked in our Boston office for almost two years,

上世紀九十年代，我在波士頓辦事處 工作了兩年左右，

and when I left, an old senior partner told me, literally,

當我離任時，一位上了年紀的同僚 直截了當地告訴我，

"Send me more of these Germans, they work like machines."

「多給我些德國人，你們的工作太棒了， 像機器一樣高效。」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

That was 1998.

這是 1998 年發生的事情。

Sixteen years later, you'd probably say the opposite.

十六年後，你們的說法或許正好相反。

"Send me more of these machines. They work like Germans."

「多給我些機器，這些機器太棒了， 像德國人一樣高效。」

(Laughter) (Applause)

（笑聲）（掌聲）

Technology will replace a lot of jobs, regular jobs.

科技將取代大量的工作， 常規工作。

Not only in the production industry,

不僅在生產型行業

but even office workers are in jeopardy

甚至連辦公室白領也岌岌可危，

and might be replaced by robots,

可能被機器人、

artificial intelligence, big data, or automation.

人工智能、大數據或自動化取代。

So the key question is not if technology replaces some of these jobs,

因此，主要問題並非科技 會取代一部分工作，

but when, how fast, and to what extent?

而是什麼時候，有多快， 會取代哪些工作？

Or in other words,

換句話說，

will technology help us to solve this global workforce crisis?

科技是否會幫助我們應對這一 波及全球的勞動力危機呢？

Yes and no.

是與否。

This is a more sophisticated version of "it depends."

這是一個更錯綜複雜的 「視情況而定這得看。」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Let's take the automotive industry as an example,

讓我們以自動化工業為例，

because there, more than 40 percent of industrial robots are already working

因為，有超過 40% 的工業機器人 已經投入工作，

and automation has already taken place.

自動化早已各就各位。

In 1980, less than 10 percent of the production cost of a car

早在 1980 年，生產一輛汽車的 成本只有不到 10%

was caused by electronic parts.

花在了電子部件上。

Today, this number is more than 30 percent

時至今日，電子部件的成本 已超過了30%，

and it will grow to more than 50 percent by 2030.

到 2030 年有望超過 50%。

And these new electronic parts and applications

這些新型電子部件與應用

require new skills and have created a lot of new jobs,

要求運用新技術，並會創造 更多的工作機會，

like the cognitive systems engineer

例如，認知系統工程師，

who optimizes the interaction between driver and electronic system.

其負責優化司機與 電子系統之間的互動。

In 1980, no one had the slightest clue that such a job would ever exist.

早在 1980 年，人們做夢也不會 想到將來會冒出這種工作。

As a matter of fact,

事實上，

the overall number of people involved in the production of a car

儘管運用了機器人和自動化，

has only changed slightly in the last decades,

但涉及汽車生產的總人數

in spite of robots and automation.

在過去十年間變化很小。

So what does this mean?

因此，這將為我們帶來什麼啟示呢？

Yes, technology will replace a lot of jobs,

不錯，科學技術將取代許多工作崗位，

but we will also see a lot of new jobs and new skills on the horizon,

但我們也會看到大量新的工作崗位 和新興技能應運而生，

and that means technology will worsen our overall skill mismatch.

這便意味著科技將會使人們 的整體技術失衡越發嚴重。

And this kind of de-averaging

而且這種去平均化態勢

reveals the crucial challenge for governments and businesses.

會對政府機關和商業企業 造成嚴峻的挑戰。

So people, high-skilled people,

因此，員工、尤其是高技術人才

talents, will be the big thing in the next decade.

未來十年內將成為關注焦點。

If they are the scarce resource, we have to understand them much better.

如果他們成為稀缺資源，我們 就得更好地瞭解他們。

Are they actually willing to work abroad?

他們是否願意去國外工作？

What are their job preferences?

他們嚮往什麼工作呢？

To find out, this year we conducted a global survey

為了一窺究竟， 今年我們對來自全球 189 個國家

among more than 200,000 job seekers from 189 countries.

的 20 多萬名求職者進行了 一次全球大調查。

Migration is certainly one key measure to close a gap,

移民恐怕是填補這一空缺的主要途徑，

at least in the short term,

至少在短期內行之有效，

so we asked about mobility.

因此，讓我們來談談流動性問題。

More than 60 percent of these 200,000 job seekers

上述 20 萬求職者中 60% 以上的人

are willing to work abroad.

願意去國外工作。

For me, a surprisingly high number.

對於我而言，這個數字高得驚人。

If you look at the employees aged 21 to 30,

如果你關注一下 21 至 30 歲的員工，

this number is even higher.

這個數字會更高。

If you split this number up by country,

如果你按各個不同的國家拆分這一數字，

yes, the world is mobile, but only partly.

全世界處於流動中，但這只是部分現象。

The least mobile countries are Russia, Germany and the U.S.

俄羅斯、德國和美國 是流動性最小的國家。

Now where would these people like to move?

眼下這些人希望去哪裡呢？

Number seven is Australia, where 28 percent could imagine moving.

排在第七位的是澳大利亞，那裡有 28% 的人可能在盤算著遷徙。

Then France, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, U.K.,

法國、瑞士、德國、加拿大、英國，

and the top choice worldwide is the U.S.

而全球最佳選擇是美國。

Now, what are the job preferences of these 200,000 people?

眼下，這 20 萬人最嚮往什麼工作呢？

So, what are they looking for?

他們有何追求？

Out of a list of 26 topics, salary is only number eight.

在 26 個決定因素中， 工資收入僅僅位列第八。

The top four topics are all around culture.

排名前四的決定因素均和企業文化有關。

Number four,

排在第四的是，

having a great relationship with the boss;

和老闆關係融洽；

three, enjoying a great work-life balance;

第三是，工作與生活互不影響， 保持平衡；

two, having a great relationship with colleagues;

第二是，與同事關係融洽；

and the top priority worldwide

而排在首位的是熱愛自己的工作

is being appreciated for your work.

這才是全世界擇業最重要的決定因素。

So, do I get a thank you?

大家是否會因此感謝我？

Not only once a year with the annual bonus payment,

不只是為了一年一度的年終大獎，

but every day.

而是希望幸福每一天。

And now, our global workforce crisis becomes very personal.

而目前，我們的全球勞動力危機 可能會與每個人休戚相關。

People are looking for recognition.

人們眼下正在尋求認同感。

Aren't we all looking for recognition in our jobs?

我們不是也在自己的工作中尋求認同嗎？

Now, let me connect the dots.

現在，讓我貫穿一下各個要點。

We will face a global workforce crisis

我們將會面臨全球性的勞動力危機，

which consists of an overall labor shortage

這場危機中不但全球勞動力短缺，

plus a huge skill mismatch,

而且技能嚴重失衡，

plus a big cultural challenge.

還要面臨嚴峻的文化挑戰。

And this global workforce crisis is approaching very fast.

這場全球性的勞動力危機已日益逼近。

Right now, we are just at the turning point.

目前，我們正處於十字路口。

So what can we, what can governments, what can companies do?

因此，我們能做些什麼，政府機關 能做些什麼，公司能做些什麼？

Every company,

不僅每一家公司，

but also every country,

而且每一個國家

needs a people strategy,

同樣需要制定人力資源戰略，

and to act on it immediately,

立即付諸行動，應對未來，

and such a people strategy consists of four parts.

該等人力資源戰略有個四方面組成。

Number one, a plan

該等人力資源戰略有個四方面組成。

for how to forecast supply and demand for different jobs and different skills.

如何預測不同工作和 不同技能的供求關係。

Workforce planning will become more important than financial planning.

勞動力規劃在財政規劃中的 重要性日益突出。

Two, a plan for how to attract great people:

第二點，需要制定規劃吸引優秀人才：

generation Y, women, but also retirees.

不僅是年青一代、婦女， 還包括退休人員。

Three, a plan for how to educate and upskill them.

第三點，還要為人才的教育和 技能提升制定規劃。

There's a huge upskilling challenge ahead of us.

我們在技能提升上面臨嚴峻的挑戰。

And four,

第四點，

for how to retain the best people,

如何才能留住最優秀的人才，

or in other words,

或換而言之，

how to realize an appreciation and relationship culture.

如何才能實現鑒賞和關係的文化。

However, one crucial underlying factor is to change our attitudes.

然而，一個重要的潛在動因 改變著我們的觀點。

Employees are resources, are assets,

員工是資源，更是財產，

not costs, not head counts,

而不是成本，也不是人數，

not machines,

更不是牟利的機器，

not even the Germans.

即使德國人也非如此。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）