Your words may predict your future mental health | Mariano Sigman

Prevodilac: Ivana Krivokuća Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović

We have historical records that allow us to know how the ancient Greeks dressed,

Imamo istorijske podatke koji nam omogućavaju

da znamo kako su se stari Grci oblačili,

how they lived,

kako su živeli, kako su se borili.

how they fought ...

but how did they think?

A kako su razmišljali?

One natural idea is that the deepest aspects of human thought --

Jedna prirodna ideja je da su najdublji aspekti ljudskih misli -

our ability to imagine,

naša sposobnost da zamišljamo,

to be conscious,

da budemo svesni,

to dream --

da maštamo -

have always been the same.

uvek bili isti.

Another possibility

Druga mogućnost

is that the social transformations that have shaped our culture

je da su društveni preobražaji koji su oblikovali našu kulturu

may have also changed the structural columns of human thought.

možda takođe izmenili strukturalnu osnovu ljudske misli.

We may all have different opinions about this.

Svi možemo imati različita mišljenja o ovome.

Actually, it's a long-standing philosophical debate.

Zapravo, to je dugogodišnja filozofska rasprava.

But is this question even amenable to science?

Međutim, da li je ovo pitanje uopšte pristupačno nauci?

Here I'd like to propose

Hteo bih da ovde predložim

that in the same way we can reconstruct how the ancient Greek cities looked

da na isti način na koji možemo rekonstruisati

kako su izgledali gradovi Antičke Grčke samo na osnovu nekoliko cigala,

just based on a few bricks,

that the writings of a culture are the archaeological records,

spisi kulture predstavljaju arheološke zapise,

the fossils, of human thought.

fosile ljudske misli.

And in fact,

Zapravo,

doing some form of psychological analysis

sprovodeći neku vrstu psihološke analize

of some of the most ancient books of human culture,

nekih od najstarijih knjiga ljudske kulture,

Julian Jaynes came up in the '70s with a very wild and radical hypothesis:

Džulijan Džejms je 1970-ih godina smislio veoma smelu i radikalnu hipotezu

that only 3,000 years ago,

da su pre samo 3 000 godina

humans were what today we would call schizophrenics.

ljudi bili ono što bismo danas nazvali šizofreničarima.

And he made this claim

Tvrdio je to

based on the fact that the first humans described in these books

na osnovu činjenice da su se prvi ljudi opisani u ovim knjigama

behaved consistently,

ponašali dosledno

in different traditions and in different places of the world,

u različitim tradicijama i na različitim mestima na svetu,

as if they were hearing and obeying voices

kao da čuju i povinuju se glasovima

that they perceived as coming from the Gods,

za koje su smatrali da dolaze od bogova

or from the muses ...

ili od muza,

what today we would call hallucinations.

što bismo danas nazvali halucinacijama.

And only then, as time went on,

Tek zatim, kako je vreme prolazilo,

they began to recognize that they were the creators,

počeli su da prepoznaju da su oni bili ti koji ih proizvode,

the owners of these inner voices.

vlasnici tih unutrašnjih glasova.

And with this, they gained introspection:

Time su stekli introspekciju,

the ability to think about their own thoughts.

sposobnost da razmišljaju o sopstvenim mislima.

So Jaynes's theory is that consciousness,

Dakle, Džejnsova teorija je da svest,

at least in the way we perceive it today,

bar onako kako je doživljavamo danas,

where we feel that we are the pilots of our own existence --

kada osećamo da upravljamo svojim postojanjem,

is a quite recent cultural development.

predstavlja prilično skorašnje kulturološko razviće.

And this theory is quite spectacular,

Ova teorija je prilično spektakularna, ali ima jedan očigledan problem,

but it has an obvious problem

which is that it's built on just a few and very specific examples.

a to je da je izgrađena samo na osnovu nekoliko vrlo specifičnih primera.

So the question is whether the theory

Postavlja se pitanje da li se teorija

that introspection built up in human history only about 3,000 years ago

da je introspekcija izgrađena pre svega 3 000 godina u ljudskoj istoriji

can be examined in a quantitative and objective manner.

može proveravati na kvantitativan i objektivan način.

And the problem of how to go about this is quite obvious.

Problem toga kako se pozabaviti ovim prilično je očigledan.

It's not like Plato woke up one day and then he wrote,

Platon se nije samo probudio jednog dana i onda napisao:

"Hello, I'm Plato,

„Zdravo, ja sam Platon

and as of today, I have a fully introspective consciousness."

i od danas imam potpuno introspektivnu svest.“

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And this tells us actually what is the essence of the problem.

To nam zapravo govori o tome šta je suština problema.

We need to find the emergence of a concept that's never said.

Treba da otkrijemo nastanak koncepta koji nikada nije izrečen.

The word introspection does not appear a single time

Reč „introspekcija“ se ne javlja nijednom

in the books we want to analyze.

u knjigama koje želimo da analiziramo.

So our way to solve this is to build the space of words.

Dakle, naš način da to rešimo jeste da izgradimo prostor reči.

This is a huge space that contains all words

To je veliki prostor koji sadrži sve reči

in such a way that the distance between any two of them

na takav način da udaljenost između bilo koje od njih dve

is indicative of how closely related they are.

ukazuje na to koliko su blisko povezane.

So for instance,

Tako, na primer,

you want the words "dog" and "cat" to be very close together,

hteli biste da reči „pas“ i „mačka“ stoje vrlo blizu jedna druge,

but the words "grapefruit" and "logarithm" to be very far away.

ali da reči „grejpfrut“ i „logaritam“ budu veoma udaljene.

And this has to be true for any two words within the space.

Ovo mora da važi za bilo koje dve reči u prostoru.

And there are different ways that we can construct the space of words.

Postoje različiti načini na koje možemo konstruisati prostor reči.

One is just asking the experts,

Jedan način je da samo pitamo stručnjake, otprilike onako kako radimo sa rečnicima.

a bit like we do with dictionaries.

Another possibility

Druga mogućnost

is following the simple assumption that when two words are related,

je da sledimo jednostavnu pretpostavku da, kada su dve reči povezane,

they tend to appear in the same sentences,

one imaju običaj da se javljaju u istim rečenicama,

in the same paragraphs,

u istim pasusima,

in the same documents,

u istim dokumentima,

more often than would be expected just by pure chance.

češće nego što je očekivano da će se desiti pukom verovatnoćom.

And this simple hypothesis,

Ova jednostavna hipoteza,

this simple method,

taj jednostavan metod,

with some computational tricks

uz neke trikove računanja

koji imaju veze sa činjenicom

that have to do with the fact

that this is a very complex and high-dimensional space,

da je to veoma složen i visoko dimenzionalan prostor,

turns out to be quite effective.

ispostavilo se da je prilično efikasna.

And just to give you a flavor of how well this works,

Samo da vam dam predstavu o tome koliko to dobro funkcioniše,

this is the result we get when we analyze this for some familiar words.

ovo je rezultat koji dobijamo kada radimo analizu za neku poznatu reč.

And you can see first

Najpre možete videti

that words automatically organize into semantic neighborhoods.

da se reči automatski organizuju u semantička susedstva.

So you get the fruits, the body parts,

Tako imate voće, delove tela,

delove kompjutera, naučne termine i tako dalje.

the computer parts, the scientific terms and so on.

The algorithm also identifies that we organize concepts in a hierarchy.

Algoritam takođe identifikuje da koncepte organizujemo hijerarhijski.

So for instance,

Tako, na primer,

možete videti da se naučni termini dele na dve potkategorije

you can see that the scientific terms break down into two subcategories

of the astronomic and the physics terms.

astronomskih i fizičkih termina.

And then there are very fine things.

Zatim, tu su i vrlo fine stvari.

For instance, the word astronomy,

Na primer, reč „astronomija“

which seems a bit bizarre where it is,

čije mesto deluje malo bizarno,

is actually exactly where it should be,

zapravo se nalazi baš gde treba da bude,

between what it is,

između onoga što jeste,

an actual science,

prave nauke,

and between what it describes,

i onoga što opisuje,

the astronomical terms.

astronomskih termina.

And we could go on and on with this.

Možemo ovako doveka.

Actually, if you stare at this for a while,

Zapravo, ako neko vreme zurite u ovo

i samo nasumično stvarate putanje,

and you just build random trajectories,

videćete da ovo pomalo deluje kao bavljenje poezijom.

you will see that it actually feels a bit like doing poetry.

And this is because, in a way,

To je tako jer je, na neki način,

walking in this space is like walking in the mind.

šetanje ovim prostorom kao šetnja kroz um.

And the last thing

Poslednja stvar

is that this algorithm also identifies what are our intuitions,

je da ovaj algoritam takođe identifikuje koje su naše intuicije,

of which words should lead in the neighborhood of introspection.

koje reči treba da budu glavne u okolini introspekcije.

So for instance,

Tako su, na primer,

words such as "self," "guilt," "reason," "emotion,"

reči poput „ja“, „krivica“, „razum“ i „osećanje“

are very close to "introspection,"

veoma bliske „introspekciji“,

but other words,

ali su druge reči kao što su „crveno“, „fudbal“, „sveća“ i „banana“

such as "red," "football," "candle," "banana,"

are just very far away.

veoma udaljene.

And so once we've built the space,

Tako, jednom kada sačinimo taj prostor,

the question of the history of introspection,

pitanje o istoriji introspekcije

or of the history of any concept

ili istoriji bilo kog koncepta

which before could seem abstract and somehow vague,

koje je ranije delovalo apstraktno i nekako nejasno

becomes concrete --

postaje konkretizovano,

becomes amenable to quantitative science.

postaje prijemčivo kvantitativnoj nauci.

All that we have to do is take the books,

Sve što treba da uradimo je da uzmemo knjige,

we digitize them,

digitalizujemo ih,

and we take this stream of words as a trajectory

uzmemo ovu bujicu reči kao putanju

and project them into the space,

i projektujemo ih na prostor,

and then we ask whether this trajectory spends significant time

a zatim postavimo pitanje da li ta putanja provodi znatno vreme

circling closely to the concept of introspection.

kružeći u blizini koncepta introspekcije.

And with this,

Na ovaj način

we could analyze the history of introspection

mogli bismo analizirali istoriju introspekcije

in the ancient Greek tradition,

u tradiciji Antičke Grčke,

for which we have the best available written record.

za koju imamo najbolje dostupne pisane zapise.

So what we did is we took all the books --

Dakle, uzeli smo sve knjige -

we just ordered them by time --

samo smo ih poređali po vremenu -

for each book we take the words

za svaku knigu uzmemo reči

and we project them to the space,

i projektujemo ih u prostor,

and then we ask for each word how close it is to introspection,

zatim postavimo pitanje za svaku reč koliko je blizu introspekcije

and we just average that.

i to samo uprosečimo.

And then we ask whether, as time goes on and on,

Zatim upitamo da li se, kako vreme odmiče,

these books get closer, and closer and closer

ove knjige sve više i više približavaju

to the concept of introspection.

konceptu introspekcije.

And this is exactly what happens in the ancient Greek tradition.

To je upravo ono što se dešava u tradiciji Antičke Grčke.

So you can see that for the oldest books in the Homeric tradition,

Možete videti da kod najstarijih knjiga u homerovskoj tradiciji

there is a small increase with books getting closer to introspection.

postoji mali porast knjiga koje se približavaju introspekciji.

But about four centuries before Christ,

Međutim, oko četiri veka pre Hrista,

this starts ramping up very rapidly to an almost five-fold increase

ovo počinje da se vrlo brzo pojačava do skoro petostrukog porasta

of books getting closer, and closer and closer

knjiga koje se sve više i više približavaju

to the concept of introspection.

konceptu introspekcije.

And one of the nice things about this

Jedna od lepih stvari u vezi sa ovime je to što sada možemo da pitamo

is that now we can ask

whether this is also true in a different, independent tradition.

da li ovo takođe važi i u drugačijoj, nezavisnoj tradiciji.

So we just ran this same analysis on the Judeo-Christian tradition,

Sproveli smo ovu istu analizu u judeo-hrišćanskoj tradiciji

and we got virtually the same pattern.

i dobili gotovo isti obrazac.

Again, you see a small increase for the oldest books in the Old Testament,

Još jednom, vidite mali porast u najstarijim knjigama Starog zaveta,

and then it increases much more rapidly

a zatim se povećava mnogo brže

in the new books of the New Testament.

u novim knjigama Novog zaveta.

Zatim dobijamo vrhunac introspekcije

And then we get the peak of introspection

in "The Confessions of Saint Augustine,"

u „Ispovestima“ Svetog Avgustina

about four centuries after Christ.

oko četiri veka posle Hrista.

And this was very important,

Ovo je bilo veoma značajno

because Saint Augustine had been recognized by scholars,

jer Svetog Avgustina priznaju akademici,

philologists, historians,

filolozi i istoričari

as one of the founders of introspection.

kao jednog od osnivača introspekcije.

Actually, some believe him to be the father of modern psychology.

Zapravo, neki ga smatraju ocem savremene psihologije.

So our algorithm,

Dakle, naš algoritam,

which has the virtue of being quantitative,

koji ima svojstvo kvantitativnosti,

of being objective,

objektivnosti,

i naravno, izuzetno je brz -

and of course of being extremely fast --

it just runs in a fraction of a second --

izvršava se u svega deliću sekunde -

can capture some of the most important conclusions

može da zabeleži neke od najvažnijih zaključaka

of this long tradition of investigation.

ove duge tradicije istraživanja.

And this is in a way one of the beauties of science,

Ovo je na neki način jedna od lepota nauke,

which is that now this idea can be translated

a to je da se sada ova ideja može prevesti

and generalized to a whole lot of different domains.

i generalizovati na mnogo različitih domena.

So in the same way that we asked about the past of human consciousness,

Na isti način na koji smo se pitali o prošlosti ljudske svesti,

maybe the most challenging question we can pose to ourselves

možda je najizazovnije pitanje koje možemo postaviti sebi

is whether this can tell us something about the future of our own consciousness.

da li nam ovo može nešto reći o budućnosti naše svesti.

To put it more precisely,

Preciznije rečeno,

whether the words we say today

da li nam reči koje izgovaramo danas

can tell us something of where our minds will be in a few days,

mogu reći nešto o tome gde će naš um biti za nekoliko dana,

in a few months

za nekoliko meseci

or a few years from now.

ili za nekoliko godina.

And in the same way many of us are now wearing sensors

Kao što i mnogi od nas danas nose senzore

that detect our heart rate,

koji detektuju naše otkucaje srca,

our respiration,

naše disanje,

our genes,

naše gene,

on the hopes that this may help us prevent diseases,

u nadi da nam to može pomoći da sprečimo oboljenja,

we can ask whether monitoring and analyzing the words we speak,

možemo se zapitati da li nam nadgledanje i analiziranje reči koje izgovorimo,

we tweet, we email, we write,

tvitujemo, šaljemo imejlom i napišemo

can tell us ahead of time whether something may go wrong with our minds.

može unapred reći da li nešto može da krene naopako sa našim umom.

And with Guillermo Cecchi,

Sa Giljermom Sečijem,

who has been my brother in this adventure,

koji je bio moj brat u ovoj avanturi,

we took on this task.

upustio sam se u ovaj zadatak.

And we did so by analyzing the recorded speech of 34 young people

To smo uradili analizom snimljenog govora 34 mladih ljudi

who were at a high risk of developing schizophrenia.

koji su bili pod visokim rizikom obolevanja od šizofrenije.

And so what we did is, we measured speech at day one,

Odredili smo mere govora prvog dana,

and then we asked whether the properties of the speech could predict,

a zatim smo se zapitali da li se svojstva govora mogu predvideti

within a window of almost three years,

u okviru perioda od skoro tri godine,

the future development of psychosis.

budući razvoj psihoze.

But despite our hopes,

Uprkos našim nadama,

we got failure after failure.

naišli smo na neuspeh za neuspehom.

There was just not enough information in semantics

Jednostavno nije bilo dovoljno semantičkih informacija

to predict the future organization of the mind.

da bi se predvidela buduća organizacija uma.

It was good enough

Bilo ih je dovoljno

to distinguish between a group of schizophrenics and a control group,

za razlikovanje grupe šizofreničara od kontrolne grupe,

a bit like we had done for the ancient texts,

pomalo kao što smo radili sa antičkim tekstovima,

but not to predict the future onset of psychosis.

ali ne i da bi se prevideo budući nastanak psihoze.

But then we realized

Međutim, onda smo shvatili

that maybe the most important thing was not so much what they were saying,

da možda nije najvažnije šta su govorili,

but how they were saying it.

već kako su to govorili.

More specifically,

Konkretnije,

it was not in which semantic neighborhoods the words were,

nije u pitanju to koliko su semantički bile bliske,

but how far and fast they jumped

već koliko daleko i brzo su preskakale

from one semantic neighborhood to the other one.

iz jedne semantičke blizine u drugu.

And so we came up with this measure,

Tako smo došli do merila

which we termed semantic coherence,

koji smo nazvali semantička koherentnost,

which essentially measures the persistence of speech within one semantic topic,

koje u suštini meri istrajnost govora u okviru jedne semantičke teme,

within one semantic category.

jedne semantičke kategorije.

And it turned out to be that for this group of 34 people,

Ispostavilo se da je u ovoj grupi od 34 ljudi

the algorithm based on semantic coherence could predict,

algoritam zasnovan na semantičkoj koherentnosti

mogao predvideti sa tačnošću od 100 odsto

with 100 percent accuracy,

who developed psychosis and who will not.

kod koga će se javiti psihoza, a kod koga neće.

And this was something that could not be achieved --

To je nešto što se nije moglo postići,

not even close --

čak ni približno,

with all the other existing clinical measures.

sa svim ostalim postojećim kliničkim merilima.

And I remember vividly, while I was working on this,

Jasno se sećam, dok sam radio na ovome,

I was sitting at my computer

sedeo sam za svojim kompjuterom

and I saw a bunch of tweets by Polo --

i video gomilu tvitova koje je objavio Polo.

Polo had been my first student back in Buenos Aires,

Polo je bio moj prvi student u Buenos Ajresu,

and at the time he was living in New York.

a u to vreme je živeo u Njujorku.

And there was something in this tweets --

Bilo je nečeg u njegovim tvitovima -

I could not tell exactly what because nothing was said explicitly --

nisam mogao da kažem šta je to tačno jer ništa nije eksplicitno rečeno -

but I got this strong hunch,

ali mi se javila snažna slutnja,

this strong intuition, that something was going wrong.

snažna intuicija da nešto nije u redu.

So I picked up the phone, and I called Polo,

Uzeo sam telefon i pozvao Pola,

a on se zaista nije osećao dobro.

and in fact he was not feeling well.

And this simple fact,

Ovaj jednostavan podatak,

that reading in between the lines,

to čitanje između redova

I could sense, through words, his feelings,

pri čemu sam mogao kroz reči da osetim njegova osećanja,

was a simple, but very effective way to help.

bio je jednostavan, ali vrlo efikasan način da se pomogne.

What I tell you today

Ono što vam danas poručujem

is that we're getting close to understanding

jeste da se približavamo razumevanju toga

how we can convert this intuition that we all have,

kako možemo pretvoriti tu intuiciju koju svi imamo,

that we all share,

koju svi delimo,

into an algorithm.

u algoritam.

And in doing so,

Na taj način,

we may be seeing in the future a very different form of mental health,

možda ćemo u budućnosti videti vrlo drugačiji oblik mentalnog zdravlja,

based on objective, quantitative and automated analysis

zasnovan na objektivnoj, kvantitativnoj i automatizovanoj analizi

of the words we write,

reči koje pišemo

of the words we say.

i reči koje izgovorimo.

Gracias.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)