Chrystia Freeland: The rise of the new global super-rich

Prevodilac: Maja Budišin Lukin Lektor: Mile Živković

So here's the most important economic fact of our time.

Evo najvažnije ekonomske činjenice našeg vremena.

We are living in an age of surging income inequality,

Živimo u dobu sve većih razlika u prihodima,

particularly between those at the very top

posebno između onih na vrhu

and everyone else.

i svih ostalih.

This shift is the most striking in the U.S. and in the U.K.,

Ova promena je naupečatljivija u SAD i Velikoj Britaniji,

but it's a global phenomenon.

ali to je globalni fenomen.

It's happening in communist China,

To se dešava u komunističkoj Kini,

in formerly communist Russia,

u bivšoj komunističkoj Rusiji,

it's happening in India, in my own native Canada.

u Indiji i u mojoj rodnoj Kanadi.

We're even seeing it in cozy social democracies

To viđamo čak i u udobnim socijalnim demokratijama

like Sweden, Finland and Germany.

kao što su Švedska, Finska i Nemačka.

Let me give you a few numbers to place what's happening.

Dozvolite da vam sa nekoliko brojeva predočim šta se dešava.

In the 1970s, the One Percent

U 1970-im je udeo "Jednog procenta" populacije

accounted for about 10 percent of the national income

iznosio oko 10% nacionalnog dohotka

in the United States.

u SAD.

Today, their share has more than doubled

Danas je njihov udeo više nego udvostručen,

to above 20 percent.

do iznad 20%.

But what's even more striking

Još upečatljivije je

is what's happening at the very tippy top

šta se dešava na samom vrhu

of the income distribution.

raspodele prihoda.

The 0.1 percent in the U.S.

0,1% u SAD

today account for more than eight percent

danas ima udeo viši od 8%

of the national income.

nacionalnog prihoda.

They are where the One Percent was 30 years ago.

Oni su tamo gde je "jedan procenat" bio pre 30 godina.

Let me give you another number to put that in perspective,

Dozvolite da dodam još jedan broj u tu sliku,

and this is a figure that was calculated in 2005

broj koji je izračunao 2005.

by Robert Reich,

Robert Rajh,

the Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration.

ministar za rad u Klintonovoj administraciji.

Reich took the wealth of two admittedly very rich men,

Rajh je uzeo bogatstvo dve veoma bogate osobe,

Bill Gates and Warren Buffett,

Bila Gejtsa i Vorena Bafeta

and he found that it was equivalent to the wealth

i otkrio je da je bilo ekvivalentno

of the bottom 40 percent of the U.S. population,

bogatstvu 120 miliona ljudi,

120 million people.

40% donjeg dela populacije SAD.

Now, as it happens,

Kao što se i dešava

Warren Buffett is not only himself a plutocrat,

Voren Bafet nije samo plutokrata

he is one of the most astute observers of that phenomenon,

već je i jedan od najpronicljivijih posmatrača tog fenomena,

and he has his own favorite number.

i ima svoj omiljen broj.

Buffett likes to point out that in 1992,

Bafet voli da istakne da je u 1992.

the combined wealth of the people

kombinovano bogatstvo naroda

on the Forbes 400 list --

na listi Forbsovih 400,

and this is the list of the 400 richest Americans --

a to je lista 400 najbogatijih Amerikanaca,

was 300 billion dollars.

bilo 300 milijardi dolara.

Just think about it.

Razmislite o tome.

You didn't even need to be a billionaire

Nisi čak morao biti ni milijarder

to get on that list in 1992.

da bi se našao na toj listi 1992.

Well, today, that figure has more than quintupled

Danas se ta cifra više nego upetostručila

to 1.7 trillion,

do 1,7 biliona dolara

and I probably don't need to tell you

i verovatno nije potrebno reći

that we haven't seen anything similar happen

da ništa slično nismo videli da se dešava

to the middle class,

srednjoj klasi

whose wealth has stagnated if not actually decreased.

čije bogatstvo je stagniralo ili se čak smanjilo.

So we're living in the age of the global plutocracy,

Dakle, živimo u dobu globalne plutokratije

but we've been slow to notice it.

ali smo bili prespori da to primetimo.

One of the reasons, I think,

Mislim da je jedan od razloga

is a sort of boiled frog phenomenon.

takozvani "fenomen kuvane žabe".

Changes which are slow and gradual

Spore i postepene promene

can be hard to notice

je teško primetiti

even if their ultimate impact is quite dramatic.

čak i kada im je krajnji uticaj dramatičan.

Think about what happened, after all, to the poor frog.

Razmislite samo šta se na kraju desilo sirotoj žabi.

But I think there's something else going on.

Ipak mislim da se nešto drugo događa.

Talking about income inequality,

Razgovor o nejednakosti prihoda,

even if you're not on the Forbes 400 list,

čak i ako niste na listi Forbsovih 400,

can make us feel uncomfortable.

može da nam izazove nelagodan osećaj.

It feels less positive, less optimistic,

Razgovor kako se pita rasparčava

to talk about how the pie is sliced

deluje manje pozitivno, manje optimistično

than to think about how to make the pie bigger.

od razmišljanja kako pitu povećati.

And if you do happen to be on the Forbes 400 list,

Još ako ste slučajno na listi Forbsovih 400,

talking about income distribution,

razgovor o raspodeli prihoda

and inevitably its cousin, income redistribution,

i njegovoj neminovnoj preraspodeli

can be downright threatening.

može biti zaista opasan.

So we're living in the age of surging income inequality,

Dakle, živimo u doba sve većih nejednakosti prihoda

especially at the top.

posebno na vrhu.

What's driving it, and what can we do about it?

Šta do toga dovodi i šta možemo uraditi u vezi s tim?

One set of causes is political:

Jedan niz uzroka je politički:

lower taxes, deregulation, particularly of financial services,

niži porezi, deregulacija, posebno finansijskih usluga,

privatization, weaker legal protections for trade unions,

privatizacija, slabija sindikalna pravna zaštita,

all of these have contributed

sve to je doprinelo

to more and more income going to the very, very top.

da sve više prihoda odlazi u sam vrh.

A lot of these political factors can be broadly lumped

Velik broj tih političkih faktora se uglavnom može svesti

under the category of "crony capitalism,"

pod kategoriju "ortačkog kapitalizma,"

political changes that benefit a group

političkih promena u korist grupe

of well-connected insiders

dobro povezanih insajdera,

but don't actually do much good for the rest of us.

koje nama ostalima u stvari ne donosi mnogo dobrog.

In practice, getting rid of crony capitalism

U praksi je neverovatno teško

is incredibly difficult.

otarasiti se ortačkog kapitalizma.

Think of all the years reformers of various stripes

Setite se svih godina različitih reformatora

have tried to get rid of corruption in Russia, for instance,

koji su pokušali da zaustave korupciju u Rusiji, na primer

or how hard it is to re-regulate the banks

ili koliko je teško reregulisati banke

even after the most profound financial crisis

čak i posle najdubljih finansijskih kriza

since the Great Depression,

posle Velike ekonomske krize

or even how difficult it is to get the big multinational companies,

ili kako je teško naterati velike multinacionalne kompanije

including those whose motto might be "don't do evil,"

uključujući i one čiji je moto "ne radi zlobno,"

to pay taxes at a rate even approaching that

da plate porez po stopi koja se samo približava

paid by the middle class.

onoj koju plaća srednja klasa.

But while getting rid of crony capitalism in practice

Ali dok je u praksi zaista jako teško otarasiti se

is really, really hard,

ortačkog kapitalizma,

at least intellectually, it's an easy problem.

barem je teoretski to lako.

After all, no one is actually in favor of crony capitalism.

Na kraju krajeva, niko nije za ortački kapitalizam.

Indeed, this is one of those rare issues

U stvari, to je jedna od retkih tema

that unites the left and the right.

koja ujedinjuje levicu i desnicu.

A critique of crony capitalism is as central

Kritika ortačkog kapitalizma je centralna tema

to the Tea Party as it is to Occupy Wall Street.

kako na "Čajankama" tako i na "Okupirajmo Volstrit".

But if crony capitalism is, intellectually at least,

Iako je ortački kapitalizam barem teoretski

the easy part of the problem,

lako rešiv,

things get trickier when you look at the economic drivers

stvari se komplikuju kada posmatrate ekonomske pokretače

of surging income inequality.

sve većih razlika u prihodu.

In and of themselves, these aren't too mysterious.

Sami po sebi oni nisu previše tajnoviti.

Globalization and the technology revolution,

Globalizacija i tehnološka revolucija,

the twin economic transformations

ekonomske bliznakinje transformacije,

which are changing our lives

koje menjaju naše živote

and transforming the global economy,

i globalnu ekonomiju,

are also powering the rise of the super-rich.

takođe pokreću uspon superbogatih.

Just think about it.

Samo promislite o tome.

For the first time in history,

Po prvi put u istoriji

if you are an energetic entrepreneur

ako ste energičan preduzetnik

with a brilliant new idea

s brilijantnom novom idejom

or a fantastic new product,

ili fantastičnim novim proizvodom,

you have almost instant, almost frictionless access

imate skoro trenutni, neometani pristup

to a global market of more than a billion people.

svetskom tržištu sa više od milijardu ljudi.

As a result, if you are very, very smart

Posledično, ako ste veoma pametni

and very, very lucky,

i veoma srećni

you can get very, very rich

možete se jako obogatiti

very, very quickly.

vrlo brzo.

The latest poster boy for this phenomenon

Najnoviji primer za ovaj fenomen

is David Karp.

je Dejvid Karp.

The 26-year-old founder of Tumblr

26-godišnji osnivač Tumblr-a

recently sold his company to Yahoo

nedavno je prodao svoju kompaniju Yahoo-u

for 1.1 billion dollars.

za 1,1 milijardi dolara.

Think about that for a minute:

Razmislite o tome na trenutak:

1.1 billion dollars, 26 years old.

1,1 milijardi dolara, 26 godina.

It's easiest to see how the technology revolution

Najbolje se vidi kako tehnološka revolucija i globalizacija

and globalization are creating this sort of superstar effect

stvaraju efekat superzvezde ove vrste

in highly visible fields,

na najvidljivijim područjima

like sports and entertainment.

kao što su sport i zabava.

We can all watch how a fantastic athlete

Svi vidimo kako danas, kao nikad ranije, fantastičan sportista

or a fantastic performer can today leverage his or her skills

ili izvođač može da iskoristi svoje veštine

across the global economy as never before.

putem globalne ekonomije.

But today, that superstar effect

Međutim, danas imamo efekat superzvezde

is happening across the entire economy.

u celoj privredi.

We have superstar technologists.

Imamo superzvezde tehnologe,

We have superstar bankers.

bankare,

We have superstar lawyers and superstar architects.

advokate i arhitekte.

There are superstar cooks

Postoje superzvezde kuvari

and superstar farmers.

i farmeri.

There are even, and this is my personal favorite example,

Postoje čak, ovo je moj omiljen primer,

superstar dentists,

superzvezde stomatolozi,

the most dazzling exemplar of whom

za koji je najsjajni primer

is Bernard Touati, the Frenchman who ministers

Bernard Tuati, Francuz koji popravlja

to the smiles of fellow superstars

osmehe superzvezda

like Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich

kao što je ruski oligarh Roman Abramovič

or European-born American fashion designer

ili rodom Evropljanin, američki modni kreator

Diane von Furstenberg.

Dian von Furstenberg.

But while it's pretty easy to see how globalization

Iako je lako uočiti kako globalizacija

and the technology revolution

i tehnološka revolucija

are creating this global plutocracy,

stvaraju ove globalne plutokratije,

what's a lot harder is figuring out what to think about it.

mnogo je teže doneti sud o tome.

And that's because,

To je zato

in contrast with crony capitalism,

što za razliku od ortačkog kapitalizma,

so much of what globalization and the technology revolution

globalizacija i tehnološka revolucija

have done is highly positive.

imaju veoma pozitivne zasluge.

Let's start with technology.

Počnimo sa tehnologijom.

I love the Internet. I love my mobile devices.

Volim internet, mobilne aparate

I love the fact that they mean that

i činjenicu što to znači

whoever chooses to will be able to watch this talk

da ko god to želi može da gleda ovaj govor,

far beyond this auditorium.

daleko izvan ove dvorane.

I'm even more of a fan of globalization.

Još veća sam obožavateljka globalizacije.

This is the transformation

Ovo je transformacija

which has lifted hundreds of millions

koja je podigla stotine miliona

of the world's poorest people out of poverty

najsiromašnijih ljudi na svetu iz bede

and into the middle class,

u srednju klasu,

and if you happen to live in the rich part of the world,

a ako ste slučajno živeli u bogatom delu sveta

it's made many new products affordable --

mnogi novi proizvodi su vam postali dostupni -

who do you think built your iPhone? —

ko je napravio ovaj Ajfon, šta mislite? -

and things that we've relied on for a long time much cheaper.

i stvari na koje smo se dugo oslanjali su pojeftinile.

Think of your dishwasher or your t-shirt.

Pomislite na vašu mašinu za pranje sudova ili na vašu majicu.

So what's not to like?

Dakle, šta ne valja?

Well, a few things.

Pa, nekoliko stvari.

One of the things that worries me

Jedna od stvari koja me brine

is how easily what you might call meritocratic plutocracy

je kako lako može tzv. meritokratska plutokratija

can become crony plutocracy.

da postane ortačka plutokratija.

Imagine you're a brilliant entrepreneur

Zamislite da ste sjajan preduzetnik

who has successfully sold that idea or that product

koji je uspešno prodao ideju ili proizvod

to the global billions

globalnim milijardama

and become a billionaire in the process.

i postao milijarder.

It gets tempting at that point

U tom trenutku postaje primamljivo

to use your economic nous

da koristite svoj ekonomski razum

to manipulate the rules of the global political economy

za manipulaciju pravila globalne političke ekonomije

in your own favor.

u sopstvenu korist.

And that's no mere hypothetical example.

To nije samo hipotetički primer.

Think about Amazon, Apple, Google, Starbucks.

Pomislite o Amazonu, Eplu, Guglu, Starbaksu.

These are among the world's most admired,

Ovo su neke od najuglednijih,

most beloved, most innovative companies.

omiljenih, najinovativnijih kompanija na svetu.

They also happen to be particularly adept

Takođe su izuzetno vešte

at working the international tax system

u manipulisanju međunarodnim poreskim sistemom

so as to lower their tax bill very, very significantly.

kako bi značajno smanjili svoje poreze.

And why stop at just playing the global political

I zašto se zaustaviti samo na manipulaciji globalnog političkog

and economic system as it exists

i ekonomskog sistema koji postoji

to your own maximum advantage?

u vašu maksimalnu korist?

Once you have the tremendous economic power

Jednom kada zadobijete ogromnu ekonomsku moć,

that we're seeing at the very, very top of the income distribution

koju vidimo na samom vrhu raspodele prihoda,

and the political power that inevitably entails,

i političku moć koja se nužno podrazumeva,

it becomes tempting as well

postaje takođe primamljivo

to start trying to change the rules of the game

otpočeti s pokušajem menjanja pravila igre

in your own favor.

u vašu korist.

Again, this is no mere hypothetical.

I ponovo, ovo nije samo hipotetički.

It's what the Russian oligarchs did

Tako su radili ruski oligarsi

in creating the sale-of-the-century privatization

kreirajući prodaju stoleća u vidu privatizacije

of Russia's natural resources.

ruskih prirodnih resursa.

It's one way of describing what happened

To je takođe način da se opiše šta se desilo

with deregulation of the financial services

sa deregulacijom finansijskih usluga

in the U.S. and the U.K.

u SAD i UK.

A second thing that worries me

Druga stvar koja me brine

is how easily meritocratic plutocracy

je kako lako meritokratska plutokratija

can become aristocracy.

može postati aristokratija.

One way of describing the plutocrats

Jedan od načina koji opisuje plutokrate

is as alpha geeks,

je da su glavni zaluđenici,

and they are people who are acutely aware

da su to ljudi koji su izrazito svesni

of how important highly sophisticated

koliko su važne visoko sofisticirane

analytical and quantitative skills are in today's economy.

analitičke i kvantitativne veštine u današnjoj ekonomiji.

That's why they are spending

Zato oni troše

unprecedented time and resources

rekordno vreme i resurse

educating their own children.

za obrazovanje svoje dece.

The middle class is spending more on schooling too,

Srednja klasa takođe troši više na školovanje,

but in the global educational arms race

ali u globalnoj obrazovnoj trci za prevlast

that starts at nursery school

koja počinje u vrtiću

and ends at Harvard, Stanford or MIT,

i završava na Harvardu, Stanfordu ili MIT-u,

the 99 percent is increasingly outgunned

99 procenata je sve više razoružano

by the One Percent.

od strane Jednog procenta.

The result is something that economists Alan Krueger

Ekonomisti Alen Kruger i Majls Korak

and Miles Corak call the Great Gatsby Curve.

rezultat toga nazivaju "Krivuljom Velikog Getsbija".

As income inequality increases,

Rast nejednakosti u prihodima povlači

social mobility decreases.

opadanje u mobilnosti društva.

The plutocracy may be a meritocracy,

Plutokratija može biti meritokratija,

but increasingly you have to be born

ali sve više je potrebno biti rođen

on the top rung of the ladder to even take part in that race.

na gornjoj prečki merdevina da bi uopšte učestvovao u toj trci.

The third thing, and this is what worries me the most,

Treća stvar koja me najviše brine

is the extent to which those same largely positive forces

je u kojoj meri te iste, većinom pozitivne snage

which are driving the rise of the global plutocracy

koje dovode do rasta globalne plutokratije,

also happen to be hollowing out the middle class

istovremeno osiromašuju srednju klasu

in Western industrialized economies.

u zapadnim industrijalizovanim ekonomijama.

Let's start with technology.

Počnimo sa tehnologijom.

Those same forces that are creating billionaires

Iste snage koje stvaraju milijardere

are also devouring many traditional middle-class jobs.

uništavaju mnoge tradicionalne poslove srednje klase.

When's the last time you used a travel agent?

Kada ste poslednji put koristili turističkog agenta?

And in contrast with the industrial revolution,

Za razliku od industrijske revolucije

the titans of our new economy

velikani naše nove ekonomije

aren't creating that many new jobs.

ne stvaraju baš mnogo novih poslova.

At its zenith, G.M. employed hundreds of thousands,

Na svom vrhuncu G.M. je zapošljavao stotine hiljada,

Facebook fewer than 10,000.

Fejsbuk zapošljava manje od 10.000.

The same is true of globalization.

Isto važi i za globalizaciju.

For all that it is raising hundreds of millions of people

Sve to što je izvuklo stotine miliona ljudi

out of poverty in the emerging markets,

iz siromaštva na novim tržištima,

it's also outsourcing a lot of jobs

takođe je eksternalizovalo mnoge poslove

from the developed Western economies.

iz razvijenih zapadnih ekonomija.

The terrifying reality is

Zastrašujuća realnost je

that there is no economic rule

da ne postoji ekonomsko pravilo

which automatically translates

koje bi automatski prevelo

increased economic growth

povećanje ekonomskog rasta

into widely shared prosperity.

u ravnomerno razdeljen prosperitet.

That's shown in what I consider to be

To se vidi u onome što smatram da je

the most scary economic statistic of our time.

najstrašnija ekonomska statistika našeg vremena.

Since the late 1990s, increases in productivity

Od kasnih 1990-ih, povećanje produktivnosti

have been decoupled from increases

je bilo odvojeno od povećanja

in wages and employment.

u platama i zaposlenosti.

That means that our countries are getting richer,

To znači da su naše zemlje sve bogatije,

our companies are getting more efficient,

naša preduzeća su sve efikasnija,

but we're not creating more jobs

ali mi ne stvaramo više poslova

and we're not paying people, as a whole, more.

i uopšteno ne plaćamo ljudima više.

One scary conclusion you could draw from all of this

Jedan strašan zaključak koji biste mogli iz ovoga izvući

is to worry about structural unemployment.

je zabrinutost o strukturnoj nezaposlenosti.

What worries me more is a different nightmare scenario.

Još više me brine drugačiji košmarni scenario.

After all, in a totally free labor market,

Na kraju krajeva na sasvim slobodnom tržištu rada

we could find jobs for pretty much everyone.

možemo naći posao za skoro svakoga.

The dystopia that worries me

Distopija koja me brine

is a universe in which a few geniuses

je univerzum u kome nekoliko genija

invent Google and its ilk

izumeju Gugl i tome slično,

and the rest of us are employed giving them massages.

a ostali smo zaposleni tako što ih masiramo.

So when I get really depressed about all of this,

Kada sam zbog svega toga depresivna

I comfort myself in thinking about the Industrial Revolution.

utešim se razmišljajući o industrijskoj revoluciji.

After all, for all its grim, satanic mills,

Na kraju je i pored svih loših slutnji

it worked out pretty well, didn't it?

ispalo prilično dobro, zar ne?

After all, all of us here are richer, healthier, taller --

Na kraju krajeva, svi smo bogatiji, zdraviji, viši -

well, there are a few exceptions —

dobro, ima nekoliko izuzetaka -

and live longer than our ancestors in the early 19th century.

i živimo duže od naših predaka u ranom 19. veku.

But it's important to remember

Međutim, važno je zapamtiti

that before we learned how to share the fruits

da smo, pre nego što smo naučili kako da delimo plodove

of the Industrial Revolution

industrijske revolucije

with the broad swathes of society,

društveno šire,

we had to go through two depressions,

morali da prođemo kroz dve velike krize,

the Great Depression of the 1930s,

veliku krizu iz 1930-ih,

the Long Depression of the 1870s,

dugu krizu iz 1870-ih,

two world wars, communist revolutions

dva svetska rata, komunističke revolucije

in Russia and in China,

u Rusiji i Kini

and an era of tremendous social

i doba ogromnih društvenih

and political upheaval in the West.

i političkih previranja na zapadu.

We also, not coincidentally,

Prošli smo takođe, ne slučajno,

went through an era of tremendous

kroz doba ogromnih

social and political inventions.

društvenih i političkih pronalazaka.

We created the modern welfare state.

Stvorili smo modernu državu blagostanja,

We created public education.

javno obrazovanje,

We created public health care.

javno zdravstvo.

We created public pensions.

Stvorili smo državne penzije

We created unions.

i sindikate.

Today, we are living through an era

Danas živimo u eri

of economic transformation

ekonomske transformacije

comparable in its scale and its scope

uporedive u stepenu i obimu

to the Industrial Revolution.

sa industrijskom revolucijom.

To be sure that this new economy benefits us all

Da bismo bili sigurni da ova nova ekonomija koristi svima,

and not just the plutocrats,

a ne samo plutokratama,

we need to embark on an era

morali bismo kročiti u eru

of comparably ambitious social and political change.

podjednako ambicioznih društvenih i političkih promena.

We need a new New Deal.

Potreban nam je novi Nju Dil.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)