Chrystia Freeland: The rise of the new global super-rich

Prevoditelj: Stjepan Mateljan Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

So here's the most important economic fact of our time.

Evo najvažnije ekonomske činjenice našeg vremena.

We are living in an age of surging income inequality,

Živimo u dobu rastućih razlika u dohotku,

particularly between those at the very top

posebno između onih na samom vrhu

and everyone else.

i svih ostalih.

This shift is the most striking in the U.S. and in the U.K.,

Ova promjena je najupečatljivija u SAD i Ujedinjenom kraljevstvu

but it's a global phenomenon.

ali to je globalni fenomen.

It's happening in communist China,

To se događa u komunističkoj Kini,

in formerly communist Russia,

u bivšoj komunističkoj Rusiji,

it's happening in India, in my own native Canada.

To se događa u Indiji i u mojoj rodnoj Kanadi.

We're even seeing it in cozy social democracies

To vidimo čak i u udobnim socijalnim demokracijama

like Sweden, Finland and Germany.

kao što su Švedska, Finska i Njemačka.

Let me give you a few numbers to place what's happening.

Dajte da vam sa nekoliko brojeva predočim što se događa.

In the 1970s, the One Percent

U 1970-ima je udio "Jednog postotka"

accounted for about 10 percent of the national income

iznosio oko 10% nacionalnog dohotka

in the United States.

u SAD.

Today, their share has more than doubled

Danas je njihov udio više nego udvostručen,

to above 20 percent.

do iznad 20%.

But what's even more striking

Još upečatljivije je

is what's happening at the very tippy top

šta se događaa na samom vrhu

of the income distribution.

raspodjele prihoda.

The 0.1 percent in the U.S.

0,1% u SAD

today account for more than eight percent

danas ima udio viši od 8%

of the national income.

nacionalnog dohotka.

They are where the One Percent was 30 years ago.

Oni su tamo gde je "Jedan posto" bio prije 30 godina.

Let me give you another number to put that in perspective,

Dajte da dodam još jedan broj u tu sliku,

and this is a figure that was calculated in 2005

broj koji je izračunao 2005.

by Robert Reich,

Robert Reich,

the Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration.

ministar za rad u Clintonovoj administraciji.

Reich took the wealth of two admittedly very rich men,

Reich je uzeo bogatstvo dvije vrlo bogate osobe,

Bill Gates and Warren Buffett,

Billa Gatesa i Warrena Buffetta,

and he found that it was equivalent to the wealth

te je otkrio kako je bilo ekvivalentno bogatstvu

of the bottom 40 percent of the U.S. population,

donjih 40% populacije SAD,

120 million people.

120 milijuna ljudi.

Now, as it happens,

Sad, kako to biva,

Warren Buffett is not only himself a plutocrat,

Warren Buffett nije samo plutokrat,

he is one of the most astute observers of that phenomenon,

već je i jedan od najoštroumnijih promatrača tog fenomena,

and he has his own favorite number.

i ima svoj omiljen broj.

Buffett likes to point out that in 1992,

Buffett voli istaknuti kako je u 1992.

the combined wealth of the people

kombinirano bogatstvo ljudi

on the Forbes 400 list --

na listi Forbesovih 400,

and this is the list of the 400 richest Americans --

a to je popis 400 najbogatijih Amerikanaca,

was 300 billion dollars.

bilo 300 milijardi dolara.

Just think about it.

Samo porazmislite o tome.

You didn't even need to be a billionaire

Nisi čak morao biti ni milijarder

to get on that list in 1992.

da bi se našao na tom popisu 1992.

Well, today, that figure has more than quintupled

Danas se ta brojka više nego upeterostručila

to 1.7 trillion,

do 1,7 bilijuna,

and I probably don't need to tell you

i vjerojvatno vam ne moram reći

that we haven't seen anything similar happen

da nismo vidjeli ništa slično kako se događa

to the middle class,

srednjoj klasi

whose wealth has stagnated if not actually decreased.

čije bogatstvo je stagniralo ako se zapravo nije čak i smanjilo.

So we're living in the age of the global plutocracy,

Dakle, živimo u doba globalne plutokracije

but we've been slow to notice it.

ali smo bili prespori da to primijetimo.

One of the reasons, I think,

Mislim kako je jedan od razloga

is a sort of boiled frog phenomenon.

neki oblik fenomena kuhane žabe.

Changes which are slow and gradual

Promjene koje su spore i postupne

can be hard to notice

mogu biti teško uočljive

even if their ultimate impact is quite dramatic.

čak i kad im je krajnji utjecaj skroz dramatičan.

Think about what happened, after all, to the poor frog.

Razmislite što se, na kraju, dogodilo jadnoj žabi.

But I think there's something else going on.

Ali mislim kako se događa nešto drugo.

Talking about income inequality,

Razgovor o nejednakosti dohotka,

even if you're not on the Forbes 400 list,

čak i ako niste na popisu Forbesovih 400,

can make us feel uncomfortable.

može nam izazvati neugodan osjećaj.

It feels less positive, less optimistic,

Deluje manje pozitivno, manje optimistično,

to talk about how the pie is sliced

pričati kako se kolač dijeli

than to think about how to make the pie bigger.

od razmišljanja kako učiniti kolač većim.

And if you do happen to be on the Forbes 400 list,

A ako se slučajno nalazite na listi Forbesovih 400,

talking about income distribution,

razgovor o raspodjeli dohotka

and inevitably its cousin, income redistribution,

i neizbježno o njezinoj rođakinji, preraspodjeli dohotka

can be downright threatening.

može biti jednostavno prijeteći.

So we're living in the age of surging income inequality,

Dakle, živimo u doba sve većih nejednakosti dohotka,

especially at the top.

posebno na vrhu.

What's driving it, and what can we do about it?

Što pokreće ovo i što možemo napraviti oko toga?

One set of causes is political:

Jedan skup uzroka je politički:

lower taxes, deregulation, particularly of financial services,

niži porezi, deregulacija, posebno financijskih usluga,

privatization, weaker legal protections for trade unions,

privatizacija, slabija sindikalna pravna zaštita,

all of these have contributed

sve to je doprinijelo

to more and more income going to the very, very top.

da sve više i više dohotka odlazi u sam vrh vrha.

A lot of these political factors can be broadly lumped

Velik broj tih političkih faktora se ugrubo može svrstati

under the category of "crony capitalism,"

pod kategoriju "rodijačkog kapitalizma,"

political changes that benefit a group

političkih promjena koje koriste grupi

of well-connected insiders

dobro povezanih unutarnjih igrača,

but don't actually do much good for the rest of us.

ali nama ostalima zapravo ne donosi neko dobro.

In practice, getting rid of crony capitalism

U praksi je riješiti se rodijačkog kapitalizma

is incredibly difficult.

nevjerojatno teško.

Think of all the years reformers of various stripes

Sjetite se svih godina u kojima su reformatori različitih fela

have tried to get rid of corruption in Russia, for instance,

pokušavali zaustaviti korupciju u Rusiji, primjerice,

or how hard it is to re-regulate the banks

ili koliko je teško re-regulirati banke

even after the most profound financial crisis

čak i poslije najdubljih financijskih kriza

since the Great Depression,

od Velike gospodarske krize

or even how difficult it is to get the big multinational companies,

ili kako je teško dobiti velike multinacionalne kompanije

including those whose motto might be "don't do evil,"

uključujući i one čiji bi moto mogao biti "ne čini zlo,"

to pay taxes at a rate even approaching that

da plate porez po stopi čak i približnoj onoj

paid by the middle class.

koju plaća srednja klasa.

But while getting rid of crony capitalism in practice

Ali dok je u praksi zbilja vrlo teško riješiti se

is really, really hard,

rodijačkog kapitalizma,

at least intellectually, it's an easy problem.

barem intelektualno, to je lagan problem.

After all, no one is actually in favor of crony capitalism.

U krajnjoj liniji, nitko zapravo i nije za rodijački kapitalizam.

Indeed, this is one of those rare issues

Zapravo, to je jedna od rijetkih tema

that unites the left and the right.

koje ujedinjuju ljevicu i desnicu.

A critique of crony capitalism is as central

Kritika rodijačkog kapitalizma je jednako centralna

to the Tea Party as it is to Occupy Wall Street.

kako pokretu Tea Party tako i pokretu Okupirajmo Wall Street.

But if crony capitalism is, intellectually at least,

Ali ako je rodijački kapitalizam, barem intelektualno,

the easy part of the problem,

lagan dio problema,

things get trickier when you look at the economic drivers

stvari postaju varljivije kad pogledate ekonomske pokretače

of surging income inequality.

sve većih razlika u dohotku.

In and of themselves, these aren't too mysterious.

Sami po sebi oni nisu previše tajnoviti.

Globalization and the technology revolution,

Globalizacija i tehnološka revolucija,

the twin economic transformations

sparene gospodarske transformacije

which are changing our lives

koje mijenjaju naše živote

and transforming the global economy,

i transformiraju globalno gospodarstvo,

are also powering the rise of the super-rich.

također pokreću i uspon superbogatih.

Just think about it.

Samo razmislite o tome.

For the first time in history,

Prvi put u povijesti,

if you are an energetic entrepreneur

ako ste energičan poduzetnik

with a brilliant new idea

s briljantnom novom idejom

or a fantastic new product,

ili fantastičnim novim proizvodom,

you have almost instant, almost frictionless access

imate skoro trenutni, neometani pristup

to a global market of more than a billion people.

do svjetskog tržišta sa više od milijardu ljudi.

As a result, if you are very, very smart

Kao rezultat, ako ste jako jako pametni

and very, very lucky,

i jako jako sretni,

you can get very, very rich

možete postati jako jako bogat.

very, very quickly.

jako jako brzo.

The latest poster boy for this phenomenon

Najnoviji primjer za ovaj fenomen

is David Karp.

je David Karp.

The 26-year-old founder of Tumblr

26-godišnji osnivač Tumblr-a

recently sold his company to Yahoo

nedavno je prodao svoju kompaniju Yahoo-u

for 1.1 billion dollars.

za 1,1 milijardi dolara.

Think about that for a minute:

Razmislite o tome na trenutak:

1.1 billion dollars, 26 years old.

1,1 milijardi dolara, 26 godina.

It's easiest to see how the technology revolution

Najbolje se vidi kako tehnološka revolucija

and globalization are creating this sort of superstar effect

i globalizacija stvaraju taj neki učinak superzvijezde

in highly visible fields,

u jako vidljivim područjima,

like sports and entertainment.

kao što su sport i zabava.

We can all watch how a fantastic athlete

Svi možemo vidjeti kako sjajan atleta

or a fantastic performer can today leverage his or her skills

ili sjajan izvođač može danas opružiti svoje vještine

across the global economy as never before.

preko globalnog gospodarstva kao nikad ranije.

But today, that superstar effect

Međutim, danas se učinak superzvijezde

is happening across the entire economy.

događa u cijelom gospodarstvu.

We have superstar technologists.

Imamo superzvijezde tehnologe,

We have superstar bankers.

imamo superzvijezde bankare,

We have superstar lawyers and superstar architects.

imamo superzvijezde odvjetnike i superzvijezde arhitekte.

There are superstar cooks

Postoje superzvijezde kuhari

and superstar farmers.

i superzvijezde seljaci.

There are even, and this is my personal favorite example,

Postoje čak, a ovo je meni osobno najdržai primjer,

superstar dentists,

superzvijezde zubari,

the most dazzling exemplar of whom

od kojih je najblistaviji primjer

is Bernard Touati, the Frenchman who ministers

Bernard Touati, Francuz koji se brine

to the smiles of fellow superstars

za osmijehe kolega superzvijezda

like Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich

poput ruskog oligarha Romana Abramoviča

or European-born American fashion designer

ili, u Europi rođenu, američku modnu dizajnericu

Diane von Furstenberg.

Dianu von Furstenberg.

But while it's pretty easy to see how globalization

Ali dok je lako vidjeti kako globalizacija

and the technology revolution

i tehnološka revolucija

are creating this global plutocracy,

stvaraju ove globalnu plutokraciju,

what's a lot harder is figuring out what to think about it.

puno je teže zauzeti svoj stav o tome.

And that's because,

A to je zato

in contrast with crony capitalism,

što za razliku od rodijačkog kapitalizma,

so much of what globalization and the technology revolution

puno je toga što su globalizacija i tehnološka revolucija

have done is highly positive.

napravile vrlo pozitivno.

Let's start with technology.

Krenimo od tehnologije.

I love the Internet. I love my mobile devices.

Volim Internet. Volim svoje mobilne uređaje.

I love the fact that they mean that

Volim činjenicu što to znači

whoever chooses to will be able to watch this talk

da tko god želi može gledati ovaj govor,

far beyond this auditorium.

daleko izvan ove dvorane.

I'm even more of a fan of globalization.

Još sam veća obožavateljica globalizacije.

This is the transformation

Ovo je transformacija

which has lifted hundreds of millions

koja je podigla stotine milijuna

of the world's poorest people out of poverty

najsiromašnijih ljudi na svijetu iz neimaštine

and into the middle class,

u srednju klasu,

and if you happen to live in the rich part of the world,

a ako ste slučajno živjeli u bogatom dijelu svijeta

it's made many new products affordable --

brojni novi proizvodi su vam postali pristupačni --

who do you think built your iPhone? —

što mislite tko je napravio ovaj iPhone? —

and things that we've relied on for a long time much cheaper.

i stvari na koje smo se dugo oslanjali su pojeftinile.

Think of your dishwasher or your t-shirt.

Pomislite na vaš aparat za pranje suđa ili na vašu majicu.

So what's not to like?

Dakle što ne valja?

Well, a few things.

Pa, nekoliko stvari.

One of the things that worries me

Jedna od stvari koje me brinu

is how easily what you might call meritocratic plutocracy

je kako lako može tzv. meritokratska plutokracija

can become crony plutocracy.

postati rodijačka plutokracija.

Imagine you're a brilliant entrepreneur

Zamislite da ste sjajan poduzetnik

who has successfully sold that idea or that product

koji je uspješno prodao ideju ili proizvod

to the global billions

globalnim milijardama

and become a billionaire in the process.

i usput postao milijarder.

It gets tempting at that point

U tom trenutku postaje primamljivo

to use your economic nous

koristiti svoj ekonomski razum

to manipulate the rules of the global political economy

za manipulaciju pravila globalne političke ekonomije

in your own favor.

u vlastitu korist.

And that's no mere hypothetical example.

To nije samo hipotetski primjer.

Think about Amazon, Apple, Google, Starbucks.

Pomislite na Amazon, Apple, Google, Starbucks.

These are among the world's most admired,

To su neke od najuglednijih,

most beloved, most innovative companies.

omiljenih, najinovativnijih kompanija na svijtu.

They also happen to be particularly adept

Takođe su izuzetno vješte

at working the international tax system

u korištenju međunarodnog poreznog sustava

so as to lower their tax bill very, very significantly.

kako bi vrlo vrlo značajno smanjili svoje poreze.

And why stop at just playing the global political

A zašto stati samo na korištenju globalnog političkog

and economic system as it exists

i ekonomskog sustava kakav postoji

to your own maximum advantage?

u vašu vlastitu maksimalnu korist?

Once you have the tremendous economic power

Jednom kada imate ogromnu ekonomsku moć,

that we're seeing at the very, very top of the income distribution

koju vidimo na samom vrhu raspodjele dohotka,

and the political power that inevitably entails,

i političku moć koja s njom neizbježno dolazi,

it becomes tempting as well

postaje također primamljivo

to start trying to change the rules of the game

početi pokušavati mijenjati pravila igre

in your own favor.

u vašu vlastitu korist.

Again, this is no mere hypothetical.

I ponovo, ovo nije samo hipotetski.

It's what the Russian oligarchs did

Tako su radili ruski oligarsi

in creating the sale-of-the-century privatization

stvarajući prodaju stoljeća u obliku privatizacije

of Russia's natural resources.

prirodnih dobara Rusije.

It's one way of describing what happened

To je također način za opisati što se dogodilo

with deregulation of the financial services

sa deregulacijom financijskih usluga

in the U.S. and the U.K.

u SAD i UK.

A second thing that worries me

Druga stvar koja me brine

is how easily meritocratic plutocracy

je kako lako meritokratska plutokracija

can become aristocracy.

može postati aristokracija.

One way of describing the plutocrats

Jedan od načina kako opisati plutokrate

is as alpha geeks,

je kao alfa geekove,

and they are people who are acutely aware

a oni su ljudi koji su jako svjesni

of how important highly sophisticated

koliko su važne visoko razvijene

analytical and quantitative skills are in today's economy.

analitičke i kvantitativne vještine u današnjoj ekonomiji.

That's why they are spending

To je zašto troše

unprecedented time and resources

neviđeno vrijeme i dobra

educating their own children.

obrazujući si djecu.

The middle class is spending more on schooling too,

Srednja klasa također troši više na školovanje,

but in the global educational arms race

ali u globalnom obrazovnom nadmetanju

that starts at nursery school

koja počinje u vrtiću

and ends at Harvard, Stanford or MIT,

a završava na Harvardu, Stanfordu ili MIT-u,

the 99 percent is increasingly outgunned

99 posto je sve više nadjačano

by the One Percent.

od strane 1 posto.

The result is something that economists Alan Krueger

Rezultat je nešto što ekonomisti Alen Krueger

and Miles Corak call the Great Gatsby Curve.

i Miles Corak nazivaju "Krivuljom Velikog Gatsbyja".

As income inequality increases,

Ako se nejednakost u dohotku povećava,

social mobility decreases.

društvena se pokretljivost smanjuje.

The plutocracy may be a meritocracy,

Plutokracija može biti meritokracija,

but increasingly you have to be born

ali sve više morate biti rođeni

on the top rung of the ladder to even take part in that race.

na gornjoj prečki letvici ljestava da bi uopće sudjelovali u toj utrci.

The third thing, and this is what worries me the most,

Treća stvar, a ta me brine najviše,

is the extent to which those same largely positive forces

je u kojoj mjeri te iste, većinom pozitivne snage

which are driving the rise of the global plutocracy

koje dovode do rasta globalne plutokracije,

also happen to be hollowing out the middle class

istovremeno osiromašuju srednju klasu

in Western industrialized economies.

u zapadnim industrijaliziranim gospodarstvima.

Let's start with technology.

Počnimo sa tehnologijom.

Those same forces that are creating billionaires

Iste snage koje stvaraju milijardere

are also devouring many traditional middle-class jobs.

uništavaju brojne tradicionalne poslove srednje klase.

When's the last time you used a travel agent?

Kada ste zadnji put koristili turističkog agenta?

And in contrast with the industrial revolution,

Za razliku od industrijske revolucije

the titans of our new economy

velikani naše nove ekonomije

aren't creating that many new jobs.

ne stvaraju baš puno novih poslova.

At its zenith, G.M. employed hundreds of thousands,

Na svom vrhuncu G.M. je zapošljavao stotine tisuća,

Facebook fewer than 10,000.

Facebook zapošljava manje od 10.000.

The same is true of globalization.

Isto vrijedi i za globalizaciju.

For all that it is raising hundreds of millions of people

Sve to što je izvuklo stotine milijuna ljudi

out of poverty in the emerging markets,

iz siromaštva na novim tržištima,

it's also outsourcing a lot of jobs

takođe je izmjestilo brojne poslove

from the developed Western economies.

iz razvijenih zapadnih gospodarstava.

The terrifying reality is

Zastrašujuća stvarnost je

that there is no economic rule

kako ne postoji ekonomsko pravilo

which automatically translates

koje bi automatski prevelo

increased economic growth

povećanje gospodarskog rasta

into widely shared prosperity.

u opće blagostanje.

That's shown in what I consider to be

To se vidi u onome za što smatram kako je

the most scary economic statistic of our time.

najstrašnija ekonomska statistika našeg vremena.

Since the late 1990s, increases in productivity

Od kasnih 1990-ih, povećanje produktivnosti

have been decoupled from increases

je bilo odvojeno od povećanja

in wages and employment.

u plaćama i zaposlenosti.

That means that our countries are getting richer,

To znači da su naše zemlje sve bogatije,

our companies are getting more efficient,

naša poduzeća su sve učinkovitija,

but we're not creating more jobs

ali ne stvaramo više poslova

and we're not paying people, as a whole, more.

i općenito ne plaćamo ljudima više.

One scary conclusion you could draw from all of this

Jedan od strašnih zaključaka koji biste mogli iz ovoga izvući

is to worry about structural unemployment.

je zabrinutost o strukturnoj nezaposlenosti.

What worries me more is a different nightmare scenario.

Još više me brine drugačiji scenarij iz noćne more.

After all, in a totally free labor market,

Na kraju, na posve slobodnom tržištu rada

we could find jobs for pretty much everyone.

možemo naći posao za gotovo svakoga.

The dystopia that worries me

Distopija koja me brine

is a universe in which a few geniuses

je svemir u kojem nekoliko genija

invent Google and its ilk

izume Google i slične stvari

and the rest of us are employed giving them massages.

a mi ostali smo zaposleni tako što ih masiramo.

So when I get really depressed about all of this,

Kada sam zbog svega toga depresivna

I comfort myself in thinking about the Industrial Revolution.

tješim se razmišljajući o industrijskoj revoluciji.

After all, for all its grim, satanic mills,

Na kraju, i uz sve svoje mračne, sotonske žrvnje

it worked out pretty well, didn't it?

ispalo je prilično dobro, nije li?

After all, all of us here are richer, healthier, taller --

Na kraju, svi smo bogatiji, zdraviji, viši --

well, there are a few exceptions —

dobro, ima nekoliko izuzetaka --

and live longer than our ancestors in the early 19th century.

i živimo duže nego naši preci u iz ranog 19. stoljeća.

But it's important to remember

Ali je važno upamtiti

that before we learned how to share the fruits

kako smo, prije nego smo naučili kako dijeliti plodove

of the Industrial Revolution

industrijske revolucije

with the broad swathes of society,

kroz širi obuhvat društva,

we had to go through two depressions,

morali proći kroz dvije velike gospodarske krize,

the Great Depression of the 1930s,

veliku krizu iz 1930-ih,

the Long Depression of the 1870s,

dugu krizu iz 1870-ih,

two world wars, communist revolutions

dva svjetska rata, komunističke revolucije

in Russia and in China,

u Rusiji i Kini

and an era of tremendous social

te eru ogromnih društvenih

and political upheaval in the West.

i političkih previranja na Zapadu.

We also, not coincidentally,

Prošli smo također, ne slučajno,

went through an era of tremendous

kroz doba ogromnih

social and political inventions.

društvenih i političkih pronalazaka.

We created the modern welfare state.

Stvorili smo modernu skrbnu državu,

We created public education.

Stvorili smo javno obrazovanje,

We created public health care.

Stvorili smo javno zdravstvo.

We created public pensions.

Stvorili smo mirovinski sustav.

We created unions.

Stvorili smo sindikate.

Today, we are living through an era

Danas živimo u eri

of economic transformation

ekonomske preobrazbe

comparable in its scale and its scope

usporedive u mjerilu i obujmu

to the Industrial Revolution.

sa industrijskom revolucijom.

To be sure that this new economy benefits us all

Da bismo bili sigurni kako nam ova nova ekonomija svima donosi korist

and not just the plutocrats,

a ne samo plutokratima,

we need to embark on an era

morali bismo se otisnuti u eru

of comparably ambitious social and political change.

podjednako ambicioznih društvenih i političkih promjena.

We need a new New Deal.

Potreban nam je novi New Deal.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)