Chrystia Freeland: The rise of the new global super-rich

譯者: Ron Chao 審譯者: Marssi Draw

So here's the most important economic fact of our time.

當今最重要的經濟現實是

We are living in an age of surging income inequality,

我們處於所得差距激增的年代

particularly between those at the very top

尤其是最頂端的一群

and everyone else.

所得遠高於其他人

This shift is the most striking in the U.S. and in the U.K.,

這種轉變在美國和英國最惹眼

but it's a global phenomenon.

但全球皆然

It's happening in communist China,

共產中國看得到

in formerly communist Russia,

前共產國家俄國也如此

it's happening in India, in my own native Canada.

印度和敝國加拿大也發生了

We're even seeing it in cozy social democracies

連溫馨的社會民主國家也看得到

like Sweden, Finland and Germany.

例如瑞典、芬蘭、德國

Let me give you a few numbers to place what's happening.

讓我列舉一些數據以便點出現況

In the 1970s, the One Percent

1970年代，頂端1%的人

accounted for about 10 percent of the national income

所得佔全國的一成

in the United States.

這是在美國

Today, their share has more than doubled

如今他們所得的比率倍增

to above 20 percent.

佔全國所得兩成以上

But what's even more striking

但更引人注目的是

is what's happening at the very tippy top

在極頂端的人

of the income distribution.

所得分配的變化

The 0.1 percent in the U.S.

現在美國最頂端0.1%的人

today account for more than eight percent

所得超過

of the national income.

全國的8%

They are where the One Percent was 30 years ago.

30年前，這是頂端1%的佔有率

Let me give you another number to put that in perspective,

讓我用另一項數據點明概貌

and this is a figure that was calculated in 2005

這是2005年統計的數據

by Robert Reich,

引自羅伯·賴許

the Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration.

他是柯林頓總統任內的勞工部長

Reich took the wealth of two admittedly very rich men,

賴許得知兩位公認大富豪的財產：

Bill Gates and Warren Buffett,

比爾蓋茲和巴菲特

and he found that it was equivalent to the wealth

他發現他們的財富

of the bottom 40 percent of the U.S. population,

等於美國底層40%的總合

120 million people.

1.2億人的總合

Now, as it happens,

巧的是

Warren Buffett is not only himself a plutocrat,

巴菲特不只是富豪

he is one of the most astute observers of that phenomenon,

還能敏銳地觀察差距的激增

and he has his own favorite number.

他也有最愛引用的數據

Buffett likes to point out that in 1992,

巴菲特喜歡指出，1992年

the combined wealth of the people

富比士雜誌

on the Forbes 400 list --

富豪榜四百強

and this is the list of the 400 richest Americans --

美國前四百名最有錢的人

was 300 billion dollars.

財富總合是三千億美元

Just think about it.

想想看

You didn't even need to be a billionaire

財富低於十億美元

to get on that list in 1992.

還能上1992年的富豪榜

Well, today, that figure has more than quintupled

如今財富總合已成長了五倍以上

to 1.7 trillion,

達到1.7兆美元

and I probably don't need to tell you

我不說大概你們也知道

that we haven't seen anything similar happen

財富激增的成果

to the middle class,

中產階級未能分享

whose wealth has stagnated if not actually decreased.

他們的財富沒變少就不錯了

So we're living in the age of the global plutocracy,

我們處於全球富豪統治的年代

but we've been slow to notice it.

卻遲遲不能察覺

One of the reasons, I think,

我認為原因之一

is a sort of boiled frog phenomenon.

是煮蛙效應

Changes which are slow and gradual

緩慢又逐漸的改變

can be hard to notice

有時很難察覺

even if their ultimate impact is quite dramatic.

即使最終的衝擊很大

Think about what happened, after all, to the poor frog.

想想看青蛙可憐的下場

But I think there's something else going on.

但我認為原因不只如此

Talking about income inequality,

談論所得分配不均的時候

even if you're not on the Forbes 400 list,

即使不在富豪榜上的人

can make us feel uncomfortable.

也會感到不自在

It feels less positive, less optimistic,

覺得只是討論劃分大餅

to talk about how the pie is sliced

而非思考把餅做大

than to think about how to make the pie bigger.

比較不積極、不樂觀

And if you do happen to be on the Forbes 400 list,

如果你正好名列富豪榜四百強

talking about income distribution,

討論所得分配

and inevitably its cousin, income redistribution,

以及難免涉及的所得再分配

can be downright threatening.

可能會令你倍感威脅

So we're living in the age of surging income inequality,

因此這是所得差距激增的年代

especially at the top.

頂端階層尤其為最

What's driving it, and what can we do about it?

起因為何？我們該怎麼辦？

One set of causes is political:

有一類原因屬於政治層面：

lower taxes, deregulation, particularly of financial services,

減稅、鬆綁，尤其是金融業鬆綁

privatization, weaker legal protections for trade unions,

民營化、工會法律保障的削弱

all of these have contributed

全都促成了

to more and more income going to the very, very top.

最最頂端的所得日益增加

A lot of these political factors can be broadly lumped

許多政治因素可以籠統歸類為

under the category of "crony capitalism,"

「裙帶資本主義」

political changes that benefit a group

這方面政治變化的受益者

of well-connected insiders

是有裙帶關係的圈內人

but don't actually do much good for the rest of us.

但一般大眾很少受惠

In practice, getting rid of crony capitalism

實際上，要清除裙帶資本主義

is incredibly difficult.

極為困難

Think of all the years reformers of various stripes

想想看俄國歷年來各式的改革者

have tried to get rid of corruption in Russia, for instance,

試圖根除貪腐的效果即為一例

or how hard it is to re-regulate the banks

或想想看重新規範銀行有多難

even after the most profound financial crisis

大蕭條以來最重大的金融危機過後

since the Great Depression,

仍然難以實現

or even how difficult it is to get the big multinational companies,

連要大型跨國企業繳稅都很難

including those whose motto might be "don't do evil,"

包括座右銘為「不作惡」的企業

to pay taxes at a rate even approaching that

他們不願意繳交

paid by the middle class.

中產階級繳的稅率

But while getting rid of crony capitalism in practice

但是要根除現行的裙帶資本主義

is really, really hard,

儘管非常非常困難

at least intellectually, it's an easy problem.

至少在理智上是容易的問題

After all, no one is actually in favor of crony capitalism.

畢竟沒有人真的贊同裙帶資本主義

Indeed, this is one of those rare issues

事實上這個議題

that unites the left and the right.

罕見地團結了左右兩派

A critique of crony capitalism is as central

批評裙帶資本主義

to the Tea Party as it is to Occupy Wall Street.

對於茶黨和「佔領華爾街」同樣重要

But if crony capitalism is, intellectually at least,

但如果裙帶資本主義，至少在理智上

the easy part of the problem,

是容易處理的問題

things get trickier when you look at the economic drivers

比較微妙的則是

of surging income inequality.

所得差距激增的經濟驅動力

In and of themselves, these aren't too mysterious.

這些驅動力本身並不那麼難懂

Globalization and the technology revolution,

全球化和科技革命

the twin economic transformations

這兩大經濟轉型

which are changing our lives

改變了我們的生活

and transforming the global economy,

轉變了全球經濟

are also powering the rise of the super-rich.

也驅動了富豪的崛起

Just think about it.

想想看

For the first time in history,

這是史無前例的

if you are an energetic entrepreneur

如果你是精力旺盛的創業家

with a brilliant new idea

有絕妙的新點子

or a fantastic new product,

或是極佳的新產品

you have almost instant, almost frictionless access

你幾乎可以立刻順利地

to a global market of more than a billion people.

進入超過十億人的全球市場

As a result, if you are very, very smart

因此，如果你非常非常聰明

and very, very lucky,

又非常非常幸運

you can get very, very rich

你可以變得非常非常有錢

very, very quickly.

有錢得非常非常迅速

The latest poster boy for this phenomenon

這種現象的最新模範生

is David Karp.

是大衛·卡普

The 26-year-old founder of Tumblr

他26歲，是微博平台Tumblr的創辦人

recently sold his company to Yahoo

最近才把公司賣給了雅虎

for 1.1 billion dollars.

售價11億美元

Think about that for a minute:

想想看

1.1 billion dollars, 26 years old.

11億美元，26歲！

It's easiest to see how the technology revolution

誰都看得出來，科技革命和全球化

and globalization are creating this sort of superstar effect

正在創造巨星效應

in highly visible fields,

尤其是在耀眼的領域

like sports and entertainment.

例如體育界和娛樂界

We can all watch how a fantastic athlete

我們都可以看到最棒的運動員

or a fantastic performer can today leverage his or her skills

或最棒的藝人如何運用其才能

across the global economy as never before.

前所未有地跨足全球經濟

But today, that superstar effect

但是現在的巨星效應

is happening across the entire economy.

橫跨了全部經濟領域

We have superstar technologists.

我們有巨星科技人員

We have superstar bankers.

有巨星銀行家

We have superstar lawyers and superstar architects.

有巨星律師和巨星建築師

There are superstar cooks

有巨星廚師

and superstar farmers.

還有巨星農夫

There are even, and this is my personal favorite example,

甚至還有我最喜歡的例子：

superstar dentists,

巨星牙醫

the most dazzling exemplar of whom

其中最耀眼的

is Bernard Touati, the Frenchman who ministers

是法國牙醫圖阿帝

to the smiles of fellow superstars

他讓其他巨星能夠露齒一笑

like Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich

客戶包括俄國的寡頭阿布拉莫維奇

or European-born American fashion designer

以及歐裔美籍時裝設計師

Diane von Furstenberg.

馮芙絲汀寶

But while it's pretty easy to see how globalization

但雖然我們很容易看出

and the technology revolution

全球化和科技革命

are creating this global plutocracy,

創造全球富豪的方式

what's a lot harder is figuring out what to think about it.

更難的是對其做出評斷

And that's because,

原因是

in contrast with crony capitalism,

二者和裙帶資本主義完全相反

so much of what globalization and the technology revolution

全球化和科技革命的效果

have done is highly positive.

大多非常正面

Let's start with technology.

先談科技

I love the Internet. I love my mobile devices.

我喜歡網路和行動裝置

I love the fact that they mean that

因為這些科技

whoever chooses to will be able to watch this talk

讓身在遠方想聽這場演講的人

far beyond this auditorium.

不必來禮堂也聽得到

I'm even more of a fan of globalization.

我更是全球化的粉絲

This is the transformation

全球化帶來的轉變

which has lifted hundreds of millions

使世界上數億赤貧的人

of the world's poorest people out of poverty

擺脫了窮困

and into the middle class,

進入中產階級

and if you happen to live in the rich part of the world,

如果你正好住在富裕國家

it's made many new products affordable --

全球化造就了許多實惠的新產品

who do you think built your iPhone? —

想想看iPhone是誰製造的

and things that we've relied on for a long time much cheaper.

我們一向依賴的物品也便宜多了

Think of your dishwasher or your t-shirt.

想想洗碗機或是T恤

So what's not to like?

所以全球化有什麼不好？

Well, a few things.

還是有可挑剔之處

One of the things that worries me

我擔心的問題之一

is how easily what you might call meritocratic plutocracy

是所謂用人唯才的富豪統治

can become crony plutocracy.

很容易變成裙帶富豪統治

Imagine you're a brilliant entrepreneur

試想你是傑出的創業家

who has successfully sold that idea or that product

已經成功地把新點子或產品

to the global billions

銷售給全球數十億人

and become a billionaire in the process.

並且因此成為億萬富翁

It gets tempting at that point

此時你可能會忍不住

to use your economic nous

利用你的經濟常識

to manipulate the rules of the global political economy

操縱全球的政經規則

in your own favor.

使自己受益

And that's no mere hypothetical example.

這不只是假設

Think about Amazon, Apple, Google, Starbucks.

想想亞馬遜、蘋果、谷歌、星巴克

These are among the world's most admired,

都是全球最受敬重的

most beloved, most innovative companies.

最受愛戴的、最創新的企業

They also happen to be particularly adept

他們也正好特別善於

at working the international tax system

利用國際稅收制度

so as to lower their tax bill very, very significantly.

大大降低其賦稅

And why stop at just playing the global political

而且何必僅限於操控

and economic system as it exists

現存的全球政經體系

to your own maximum advantage?

以獲得最大優勢？

Once you have the tremendous economic power

一旦你像所得分配最頂端的人

that we're seeing at the very, very top of the income distribution

擁有強大的經濟實力

and the political power that inevitably entails,

以及少不了的政治勢力

it becomes tempting as well

也會變得忍不住

to start trying to change the rules of the game

開始改變遊戲規則

in your own favor.

使自己受益

Again, this is no mere hypothetical.

這也不只是假設

It's what the Russian oligarchs did

俄國的寡頭就是這麼幹的

in creating the sale-of-the-century privatization

透過世紀大拍賣進而民營化

of Russia's natural resources.

俄國的自然資源

It's one way of describing what happened

另一個例子是

with deregulation of the financial services

美國和英國

in the U.S. and the U.K.

鬆綁金融服務業的歷程

A second thing that worries me

我擔心的第二個問題是

is how easily meritocratic plutocracy

用人唯才的富豪統治

can become aristocracy.

很容易變成貴族統治

One way of describing the plutocrats

從一個角度看來

is as alpha geeks,

富豪是技術達人

and they are people who are acutely aware

這種人的見識敏銳

of how important highly sophisticated

明白在今天的經濟環境裡

analytical and quantitative skills are in today's economy.

高度複雜的分析及計量技能非常重要

That's why they are spending

這就是為什麼他們正花費

unprecedented time and resources

前所未有的時間和資源

educating their own children.

教育自己的孩子

The middle class is spending more on schooling too,

中產階級也在增加教育支出

but in the global educational arms race

但是全球激烈的教育競賽

that starts at nursery school

開始於托兒所

and ends at Harvard, Stanford or MIT,

結束於哈佛、史丹福、麻省理工學院

the 99 percent is increasingly outgunned

底層的99％日益落後

by the One Percent.

遠不如頂端的1%

The result is something that economists Alan Krueger

經濟學家克魯格與寇拉克

and Miles Corak call the Great Gatsby Curve.

稱這種現象為蓋茨比曲線

As income inequality increases,

隨著所得差距增加

social mobility decreases.

社會流動性就會降低

The plutocracy may be a meritocracy,

富豪統治或許是用人唯才

but increasingly you have to be born

但你的出身愈發重要

on the top rung of the ladder to even take part in that race.

如果不是頂端階層，連參賽資格都沒有

The third thing, and this is what worries me the most,

第三個問題我最擔心

is the extent to which those same largely positive forces

驅動全球富豪崛起的正面力量

which are driving the rise of the global plutocracy

也以同樣的力道

also happen to be hollowing out the middle class

正在掏空

in Western industrialized economies.

西方工業國家的中產階級

Let's start with technology.

我們先談科技

Those same forces that are creating billionaires

創造億萬富翁的動力

are also devouring many traditional middle-class jobs.

也吞噬了許多中產階級的傳統工作

When's the last time you used a travel agent?

你多久沒跟旅行社職員打交道了？

And in contrast with the industrial revolution,

和工業革命時代對比

the titans of our new economy

新經濟的鉅亨

aren't creating that many new jobs.

並未創造許多新的就業機會

At its zenith, G.M. employed hundreds of thousands,

在全盛時期，通用汽車有幾十萬員工

Facebook fewer than 10,000.

臉書的員工則不到一萬人

The same is true of globalization.

全球化也不遑多讓

For all that it is raising hundreds of millions of people

雖然數以億計的人

out of poverty in the emerging markets,

在新興市場脫貧

it's also outsourcing a lot of jobs

但也導致很多工作

from the developed Western economies.

在西方已開發國家被外包

The terrifying reality is

可怕的現實是

that there is no economic rule

沒有任何經濟規則

which automatically translates

能夠自動轉化

increased economic growth

經濟的增長

into widely shared prosperity.

成為廣泛分享的繁榮

That's shown in what I consider to be

這個現象顯露於

the most scary economic statistic of our time.

我認為當代最可怕的經濟數字中

Since the late 1990s, increases in productivity

自1990年代末以來，生產率的提高

have been decoupled from increases

已經脫鉤於

in wages and employment.

工資和就業的增長

That means that our countries are getting richer,

結果國家日益富裕

our companies are getting more efficient,

企業效率日益提高

but we're not creating more jobs

卻未創造更多就業機會

and we're not paying people, as a whole, more.

整體薪資並沒有增加

One scary conclusion you could draw from all of this

總之有個可怕的結論

is to worry about structural unemployment.

就是我們該憂心結構性失業

What worries me more is a different nightmare scenario.

我更擔心的是另一種噩夢場景

After all, in a totally free labor market,

畢竟在完全自由的勞動力市場

we could find jobs for pretty much everyone.

幾乎人人都可以找到工作

The dystopia that worries me

我擔心的是反面烏托邦

is a universe in which a few geniuses

由少數天才組成的宇宙

invent Google and its ilk

他們創辦了谷歌及其類

and the rest of us are employed giving them massages.

其他的人只能按摩伺候他們

So when I get really depressed about all of this,

所以我為此很鬱悶的時候

I comfort myself in thinking about the Industrial Revolution.

會想想工業革命聊以慰藉

After all, for all its grim, satanic mills,

畢竟當時的工廠糟糕透頂

it worked out pretty well, didn't it?

但最後還是柳暗花明了，對吧

After all, all of us here are richer, healthier, taller --

畢竟你我都比前人更富裕、更健康、更高

well, there are a few exceptions —

除了少數例外

and live longer than our ancestors in the early 19th century.

我們的壽命也高於19世紀初的祖先

But it's important to remember

但是要切記

that before we learned how to share the fruits

在我們學會

of the Industrial Revolution

讓工業革命的成果

with the broad swathes of society,

分享於廣大的社會群眾之前

we had to go through two depressions,

我們經歷過兩次蕭條

the Great Depression of the 1930s,

1930年代的大蕭條

the Long Depression of the 1870s,

1870年代的長期蕭條

two world wars, communist revolutions

兩次世界大戰，共產主義革命

in Russia and in China,

在俄羅斯和中國爆發

and an era of tremendous social

西方社會和政治

and political upheaval in the West.

極度動盪的時代

We also, not coincidentally,

我們並非巧合地

went through an era of tremendous

也經歷了極大的

social and political inventions.

社會與政治創新

We created the modern welfare state.

我們建立了現代福利國家

We created public education.

我們建立了公立教育體系

We created public health care.

我們建立了公共保健體系

We created public pensions.

我們建立了公共退休金制度

We created unions.

我們成立了工會

Today, we are living through an era

如今我們正在度過

of economic transformation

經濟轉型的時代

comparable in its scale and its scope

就其規模和範疇而言

to the Industrial Revolution.

不下於工業革命

To be sure that this new economy benefits us all

為了確保新經濟澤披天下

and not just the plutocrats,

而不是僅由富豪獨享

we need to embark on an era

我們需要迎頭面對

of comparably ambitious social and political change.

同樣浩大的社會與政治變革

We need a new New Deal.

我們需要新的新政

(Applause)

（掌聲）