Chrystia Freeland: The rise of the new global super-rich

翻译人员: Jing Peng 校对人员: Julia Xu

So here's the most important economic fact of our time.

当今最重要的经济现状是

We are living in an age of surging income inequality,

我们生活在一个收入差异加巨的年代

particularly between those at the very top

特别是处于顶层的人士收入远高于

and everyone else.

其它阶层

This shift is the most striking in the U.S. and in the U.K.,

这种现象在英美最为显著

but it's a global phenomenon.

但全球皆然

It's happening in communist China,

包括社会主义制度的中国

in formerly communist Russia,

前共产主义苏联

it's happening in India, in my own native Canada.

印度和我的祖国加拿大

We're even seeing it in cozy social democracies

甚至在最适宜居住的社会民主国家

like Sweden, Finland and Germany.

像瑞典，芬兰和德国都是如此

Let me give you a few numbers to place what's happening.

我以几个数字为例，大家就会明白

In the 1970s, the One Percent

在70年代的美国

accounted for about 10 percent of the national income

(最富有的)1%的人的所得

in the United States.

占据了10%的国民收入

Today, their share has more than doubled

如今，这部分人的收入占有率增加了一倍多

to above 20 percent.

超过20%

But what's even more striking

更让人震惊的是

is what's happening at the very tippy top

顶层中的顶层们

of the income distribution.

的收入分配

The 0.1 percent in the U.S.

那0.1%尖端人士

today account for more than eight percent

拥有全美8%以上的

of the national income.

国民收入

They are where the One Percent was 30 years ago.

这是30年前顶端1%的占有率

Let me give you another number to put that in perspective,

让我再举一个数字来审视这个问题

and this is a figure that was calculated in 2005

这是2005年的统计数据

by Robert Reich,

由Robert Reich 提供

the Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration.

他是克林顿政府的劳工部长

Reich took the wealth of two admittedly very rich men,

Reich以两个无可厚非的巨富

Bill Gates and Warren Buffett,

比尔.盖茨和沃伦.巴菲特的财富为例

and he found that it was equivalent to the wealth

发现这个总和

of the bottom 40 percent of the U.S. population,

相当于全美最底层的40%的全部财富

120 million people.

即1.2亿人的总和

Now, as it happens,

碰巧的是

Warren Buffett is not only himself a plutocrat,

沃伦 · 巴菲特不仅自己是个富豪

he is one of the most astute observers of that phenomenon,

同时是此现象最敏锐的观察者之一

and he has his own favorite number.

他有自己最偏好的数据

Buffett likes to point out that in 1992,

巴菲特指出，在1992年

the combined wealth of the people

福布斯400强

on the Forbes 400 list --

的财富总和

and this is the list of the 400 richest Americans --

即最富有的400个美国人

was 300 billion dollars.

总价值3000 亿美金

Just think about it.

试想一下

You didn't even need to be a billionaire

不用十亿美金

to get on that list in 1992.

你就可以在1992年跻身福布斯400强

Well, today, that figure has more than quintupled

现如今这个数字翻了五倍多

to 1.7 trillion,

达到1.7万亿美金

and I probably don't need to tell you

不用我说大家便知

that we haven't seen anything similar happen

类似的增长并没发生在

to the middle class,

中产阶级身上

whose wealth has stagnated if not actually decreased.

他们的财富增长不是停滞就是减少

So we're living in the age of the global plutocracy,

我们生活在全球财阀统治的时代

but we've been slow to notice it.

但却久久才意识到这一点

One of the reasons, I think,

我认为其中一个原因

is a sort of boiled frog phenomenon.

类似于"温水青蛙"现象

Changes which are slow and gradual

缓慢和逐步的变化

can be hard to notice

很难被注意到

even if their ultimate impact is quite dramatic.

即使最终的结果是致命的

Think about what happened, after all, to the poor frog.

想想那只青蛙悲惨的结局吧

But I think there's something else going on.

但我认为还有别的原因

Talking about income inequality,

当谈到收入不平等时

even if you're not on the Forbes 400 list,

即使不是福布斯400 强之列的巨富

can make us feel uncomfortable.

也会另人感到很不舒服

It feels less positive, less optimistic,

好似用消极、悲观的态度

to talk about how the pie is sliced

来谈论如何切分蛋糕

than to think about how to make the pie bigger.

而不是积极想办法使这块蛋糕变大

And if you do happen to be on the Forbes 400 list,

如果你有幸跻身福布斯400强

talking about income distribution,

当讨论收入分配

and inevitably its cousin, income redistribution,

以及随之而来的收入再分配时

can be downright threatening.

你可能会有彻底的威胁感

So we're living in the age of surging income inequality,

我们生活在收入不平等加剧的年代

especially at the top.

尤其是在顶端人群中

What's driving it, and what can we do about it?

这背后的动因是什么？我们又能做些什么？

One set of causes is political:

其中之一是政治原因

lower taxes, deregulation, particularly of financial services,

降低税收，放松管制，特别是对金融服务业

privatization, weaker legal protections for trade unions,

私有化，削弱法律对工会的保护

all of these have contributed

这一切都造成

to more and more income going to the very, very top.

越来越多的收入集中到社会顶层

A lot of these political factors can be broadly lumped

很多这些政治因素可以大致归结为

under the category of "crony capitalism,"

"裙带资本主义"

political changes that benefit a group

政治变革使得

of well-connected insiders

密切相关的圈内人士直接受益

but don't actually do much good for the rest of us.

而对一般人意义了了

In practice, getting rid of crony capitalism

在实践中，铲除裙带资本主义

is incredibly difficult.

是非常困难的

Think of all the years reformers of various stripes

以俄罗斯为例，多年来有多少

have tried to get rid of corruption in Russia, for instance,

改革派想尽办法铲除腐败

or how hard it is to re-regulate the banks

力尽艰辛重整银行系统

even after the most profound financial crisis

即使是在大萧条以来最严重的

since the Great Depression,

金融危机之后，依然见效不大。

or even how difficult it is to get the big multinational companies,

再有，要求那些大型跨国公司

including those whose motto might be "don't do evil,"

包括一些口口声声宣扬"为善"的公司

to pay taxes at a rate even approaching that

根据中产阶级的税率来纳税

paid by the middle class.

是多么困难重重

But while getting rid of crony capitalism in practice

但尽管在实践中根除裙带资本主义

is really, really hard,

实属不易

at least intellectually, it's an easy problem.

但至少从理智上讲，那是个简单的问题

After all, no one is actually in favor of crony capitalism.

毕竟，没有人是真正支持裙带资本主义的

Indeed, this is one of those rare issues

事实上这个问题

that unites the left and the right.

罕见地统一了左派和右派

A critique of crony capitalism is as central

批判裙带资本主义对茶党

to the Tea Party as it is to Occupy Wall Street.

和占领华尔街派而言同样重要

But if crony capitalism is, intellectually at least,

但如果裙带资本主义从理智上讲

the easy part of the problem,

是比较容易解决的部分

things get trickier when you look at the economic drivers

那么经济因素催成的贫富相差巨增

of surging income inequality.

就变得更为繁杂

In and of themselves, these aren't too mysterious.

就经济本身而言，并无特别神秘之处

Globalization and the technology revolution,

但全球化和技术革命

the twin economic transformations

这一对经济转型

which are changing our lives

正在改变我们的生活

and transforming the global economy,

改变着全球经济

are also powering the rise of the super-rich.

也催成超级富豪的崛起

Just think about it.

试想一下

For the first time in history,

有史以来第一次,

if you are an energetic entrepreneur

如果你是一个充满活力的企业家

with a brilliant new idea

有一个绝妙的新点子

or a fantastic new product,

或神奇的新产品

you have almost instant, almost frictionless access

你可以立即顺利地

to a global market of more than a billion people.

进入超过 10 亿人的全球市场

As a result, if you are very, very smart

因此，如果你非常非常的聪明

and very, very lucky,

又非常非常的幸运

you can get very, very rich

你可以

very, very quickly.

顺间变成富豪

The latest poster boy for this phenomenon

这种现象的最新代言人

is David Karp.

是大卫 · 卡普

The 26-year-old founder of Tumblr

这个26岁的Tumblr 创始人

recently sold his company to Yahoo

最近把他的公司卖给了雅虎

for 1.1 billion dollars.

成交价11 亿美金

Think about that for a minute:

好好想一下

1.1 billion dollars, 26 years old.

11 亿美金，26 岁

It's easiest to see how the technology revolution

不难发现，技术革命

and globalization are creating this sort of superstar effect

和全球化是如何创造这种超级巨星效应

in highly visible fields,

在人人可见的领域内

like sports and entertainment.

如体育界和娱乐圈

We can all watch how a fantastic athlete

我们都能看到那些出色的运动员

or a fantastic performer can today leverage his or her skills

或明星利用他们的能力

across the global economy as never before.

在全球市场创造前所未有的价值

But today, that superstar effect

但如今，这种巨星效应

is happening across the entire economy.

发生在整个经济体系中

We have superstar technologists.

我们有巨星技术专家

We have superstar bankers.

有巨星银行家

We have superstar lawyers and superstar architects.

巨星律师和巨星建筑师

There are superstar cooks

有巨星厨师

and superstar farmers.

和巨星农场主

There are even, and this is my personal favorite example,

甚至有我个人最喜欢的例子

superstar dentists,

巨星牙医

the most dazzling exemplar of whom

其中最耀眼的

is Bernard Touati, the Frenchman who ministers

是这个法国牙医 Bernard Touati

to the smiles of fellow superstars

他保障其他巨星们的露齿一笑

like Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich

其中包括俄罗斯寡头阿布拉莫维奇

or European-born American fashion designer

欧裔美国时装设计师

Diane von Furstenberg.

黛安 · 冯 · 弗斯滕伯格

But while it's pretty easy to see how globalization

尽管显而易见全球化

and the technology revolution

和技术革命正在

are creating this global plutocracy,

创造世界超富

what's a lot harder is figuring out what to think about it.

难解的是如何看待这一现象

And that's because,

因为

in contrast with crony capitalism,

与裙带资本主义相反

so much of what globalization and the technology revolution

全球化和技术革命

have done is highly positive.

带来的收益多是积极向上的

Let's start with technology.

我们先从技术说起

I love the Internet. I love my mobile devices.

我爱互联网。也爱移动设备

I love the fact that they mean that

我喜欢

whoever chooses to will be able to watch this talk

不管是谁在什么地方都能选择观看这个演讲

far beyond this auditorium.

远远超出这个礼堂的范围

I'm even more of a fan of globalization.

我更是全球化的粉丝

This is the transformation

这种转型

which has lifted hundreds of millions

使数亿

of the world's poorest people out of poverty

世界上最贫穷的人民摆脱贫困

and into the middle class,

进入中产阶级

and if you happen to live in the rich part of the world,

如果你碰巧住在发达国家

it's made many new products affordable --

这种转型让许多新产品变得物美价廉-

who do you think built your iPhone? —

想想是谁生产的你的 iPhone?—

and things that we've relied on for a long time much cheaper.

我们依赖已久的物品变得越来越便宜

Think of your dishwasher or your t-shirt.

看看你的洗碗机或是你的 t 恤

So what's not to like?

那还有什么不喜欢的呢？

Well, a few things.

确实有一些

One of the things that worries me

我担心的事情之一

is how easily what you might call meritocratic plutocracy

是任人唯才的富豪统治

can become crony plutocracy.

很容易成为裙带富豪统治

Imagine you're a brilliant entrepreneur

假设你是一位出色的企业家

who has successfully sold that idea or that product

成功地向全球数十亿人

to the global billions

销售了新产品或新点子

and become a billionaire in the process.

并一下子成为亿万富翁

It gets tempting at that point

此时你经不住诱惑

to use your economic nous

使用你的经济常识去

to manipulate the rules of the global political economy

操作全球政治经济的游戏规则

in your own favor.

为自己谋取暴利

And that's no mere hypothetical example.

这并不只是个假设

Think about Amazon, Apple, Google, Starbucks.

看看亚马逊、 苹果、 谷歌、 星巴克

These are among the world's most admired,

这些都是属于世界上最受尊敬

most beloved, most innovative companies.

最受喜爱，最具创新性的公司

They also happen to be particularly adept

他们特别擅长

at working the international tax system

利用国际税制的差别避税

so as to lower their tax bill very, very significantly.

大大降低税额

And why stop at just playing the global political

那为什么不继续利用现有

and economic system as it exists

全球化政治经济体系

to your own maximum advantage?

来获得最大利益呢?

Once you have the tremendous economic power

因为一旦你拥有巨大的经济实力

that we're seeing at the very, very top of the income distribution

像那些处于收入分配顶端的富豪们

and the political power that inevitably entails,

以及相关的政治权力

it becomes tempting as well

开始尝试改变游戏规则

to start trying to change the rules of the game

以谋私利的想法

in your own favor.

就会变得非常诱人

Again, this is no mere hypothetical.

再次重申，这绝不是假设

It's what the Russian oligarchs did

正如俄罗斯寡头们

in creating the sale-of-the-century privatization

在前所未有的私有化过程中

of Russia's natural resources.

出卖俄罗斯天然资源的所作所为一样

It's one way of describing what happened

这也描绘了英美两国

with deregulation of the financial services

放松对金融服务业管制

in the U.S. and the U.K.

所造成的后果

A second thing that worries me

我担心的第二件事

is how easily meritocratic plutocracy

就是任人唯才的富豪统治

can become aristocracy.

很容易成为贵族统治

One way of describing the plutocrats

形容这些富豪的一种方法

is as alpha geeks,

可称他们为技术达人

and they are people who are acutely aware

这些人敏锐地意识到

of how important highly sophisticated

高度复杂的分析和计量能力

analytical and quantitative skills are in today's economy.

在当今的经济社会是多么重要

That's why they are spending

这就是为什么他们花

unprecedented time and resources

大量的时间和金钱

educating their own children.

在孩子的教育上

The middle class is spending more on schooling too,

中产阶级们也在加大教育投资

but in the global educational arms race

但在全球"教育军备竞赛"中

that starts at nursery school

从幼儿园开始

and ends at Harvard, Stanford or MIT,

到最终升入哈佛，斯坦福或麻省理工这样的顶尖大学

the 99 percent is increasingly outgunned

99%的平民阶层

by the One Percent.

越来越争不过那1%的特权子弟

The result is something that economists Alan Krueger

结果就象经济学家艾伦 · 克鲁格

and Miles Corak call the Great Gatsby Curve.

和迈尔斯.酷瑞克描绘的伟大的盖茨比曲线一样

As income inequality increases,

随着收入失衡的增加

social mobility decreases.

社会的流动性降低

The plutocracy may be a meritocracy,

财阀统治可能是任人为才

but increasingly you have to be born

但你必须出生在权贵之家

on the top rung of the ladder to even take part in that race.

否则连参加角逐的机会都没有

The third thing, and this is what worries me the most,

第三件事，也是我最担心的是

is the extent to which those same largely positive forces

这股积极向上

which are driving the rise of the global plutocracy

同时推动全球富豪崛起的力量

also happen to be hollowing out the middle class

正在挖空西方发达国家

in Western industrialized economies.

的中产阶级

Let's start with technology.

我们先谈谈技术

Those same forces that are creating billionaires

正在创造着亿万富翁的那股力量

are also devouring many traditional middle-class jobs.

也在吞食许多传统的中产阶级的工作机会

When's the last time you used a travel agent?

你最后一次使用旅行社是什么时候?

And in contrast with the industrial revolution,

与工业革命相反

the titans of our new economy

我们的新经济巨人

aren't creating that many new jobs.

并沒有创造很多新的就业机会

At its zenith, G.M. employed hundreds of thousands,

在其全盛时期，通用公司雇用数十万人

Facebook fewer than 10,000.

而Facebook 的雇员少于一万

The same is true of globalization.

全球化也正是如此

For all that it is raising hundreds of millions of people

虽然它使数以百万计

out of poverty in the emerging markets,

的发展中国家人民脱离贫困

it's also outsourcing a lot of jobs

但它将西方国家中产阶级的工作机会

from the developed Western economies.

向海外外包

The terrifying reality is

更可怕的现实是

that there is no economic rule

没有任何经济规则

which automatically translates

能自动使

increased economic growth

经济增长

into widely shared prosperity.

转变成广泛共享的繁荣

That's shown in what I consider to be

这体现了当今就我个人认为

the most scary economic statistic of our time.

最可怕的经济统计数据.

Since the late 1990s, increases in productivity

从九十年代后期，提高工作效率

have been decoupled from increases

与增加工资

in wages and employment.

和就业脱钩

That means that our countries are getting richer,

这意味着，我们的国家越来越富有

our companies are getting more efficient,

企业效率增长

but we're not creating more jobs

但没有创造更多就业机会

and we're not paying people, as a whole, more.

总体工资水平没有增加

One scary conclusion you could draw from all of this

综上所述,可以得到一个可怕的结论

is to worry about structural unemployment.

那就是令人担扰的结构性失业

What worries me more is a different nightmare scenario.

更令我担忧的是一个不同的噩梦般的场景

After all, in a totally free labor market,

毕竟，在一个完全自由的劳动力市场里

we could find jobs for pretty much everyone.

几乎每个人都能找到工作

The dystopia that worries me

但我担心这反乌托邦社会

is a universe in which a few geniuses

由发明了谷歌的天才

invent Google and its ilk

和其同党们统治

and the rest of us are employed giving them massages.

其他受雇于他们的只是打杂

So when I get really depressed about all of this,

所以当我为这一切沮丧之极时

I comfort myself in thinking about the Industrial Revolution.

我总用工业革命来安慰自己

After all, for all its grim, satanic mills,

毕竟，对于那些冷酷、魔鬼般的工厂

it worked out pretty well, didn't it?

结果都还可以不是吗?

After all, all of us here are richer, healthier, taller --

毕竟，我们现在都更富有、 更健康、更高大-

well, there are a few exceptions —

当然有几个例外 —

and live longer than our ancestors in the early 19th century.

我们比19 世纪初的祖先要长寿

But it's important to remember

但要切记

that before we learned how to share the fruits

在我们学会

of the Industrial Revolution

与社会大众

with the broad swathes of society,

分享工业革命的硕果之前

we had to go through two depressions,

我们不得不经历两个经济萧条

the Great Depression of the 1930s,

20 世纪 30 年代的大萧条

the Long Depression of the 1870s,

和19世纪70年代的长期萧条

two world wars, communist revolutions

两次世界大战

in Russia and in China,

俄罗斯和中国的共产革命,

and an era of tremendous social

和西方社会

and political upheaval in the West.

和政治极端动荡的时代

We also, not coincidentally,

绝非巧合

went through an era of tremendous

现在我们也正在经历一个

social and political inventions.

社会和政治变革的时代

We created the modern welfare state.

我们创建了现代福利国家

We created public education.

我们创建了公众教育

We created public health care.

我们创建了公共卫生保障系统

We created public pensions.

我们创建了公共养老金

We created unions.

我们还创建了工会

Today, we are living through an era

今天，我们生活在一个

of economic transformation

经济转型的时代,

comparable in its scale and its scope

其规模和范围

to the Industrial Revolution.

可与工业革命相提并论

To be sure that this new economy benefits us all

要确保这一新经济造福天下

and not just the plutocrats,

而不仅仅是使富豪们受益

we need to embark on an era

我们需要非常

of comparably ambitious social and political change.

大胆的社会和政治变革

We need a new New Deal.

我们需要一个新政

(Applause)

（掌声）