Hans Rosling: The good news of the decade?

Prevodilac: Elizabeta Petrovic Lektor: Ivana Korom

We are here today

Danas smo ovde

because [the] United Nations

zato što su Ujedinjene nacije definisale ciljeve za napredak zemalja.

have defined goals

for the progress of countries.

They're called Millennium Development Goals.

Zovu se Milenijumski razvojni ciljevi.

And the reason I really like these goals

A razlog zašto stvarno volim te ciljeve

is that there are eight of them.

je što ih ima osam.

And by specifying eight different goals,

I određivanjem osam različitih ciljeva,

the United Nations has said

Ujedinjene nacije su poručile

that there are so many things needed

kako ima tako puno stvari koje bi trebalo da se promene u nekoj zemlji,

to change in a country

in order to get the good life for people.

da bismo imali dobar život za ljude.

Look here -- you have to end poverty,

Pogledajte ovde, treba zaustaviti siromaštvo,

education, gender,

obrazovanje, rod,

child and maternal health,

zdravlje dece i majki,

control infections, protect the environment

kontrolisati infekcije, zaštititi okolinu

and get the good global links between nations

i ostvariti dobre globalne veze među narodima u svakom pogledu,

in every aspect

from aid to trade.

od pomoći do trgovanja.

There's a second reason I like these development goals,

Postoji i drugi razlog zašto mi se sviđaju ti razvojni ciljevi,

and that is because each and every one is measured.

a to je zato što je svaki merljiv.

Take child mortality;

Uzmimo smrtnost dece.

the aim here is to reduce child mortality

Cilj je smanjiti dečju smrtnost za dve trećine,

by two-thirds,

from 1990 to 2015.

od 1990. do 2015.

That's a four percent reduction per year --

To je smanjenje od četiri procenta godišnje.

and this, with measuring.

I ovo, s merenjem.

That's what makes the difference

To je ono što čini razliku između ovakvog političkog govora

between political talking like this

and really going for the important thing,

i stvarnog rađenja na važnoj stvari,

a better life for people.

na boljem životu za ljude.

A razlog zašto sam tako srećan zbog toga

And what I'm so happy about with this

is that we have already documented

je taj što smo već dokazali da postoje mnoge zemlje

that there are many countries

in Asia, in the Middle East,

u Aziji, na Bliskom istoku,

in Latin America and East Europe

u Latinskoj Americi i Istočnoj Evropi

that [are] reducing with this rate.

koje smanjuju ovom brzinom.

And even mighty Brazil is going down with five percent per year,

Čak i moćni Brazil smanjuje sa 5 procenata godišnje,

and Turkey with seven percent per year.

a Turska sa sedam procenata godišnje.

So there's good news.

Dakle ima dobrih vesti.

A ipak ljudi mi kažu: "Nema napretka u Africi.

But then I hear people saying, "There is no progress in Africa.

And there's not even statistics on Africa

A čak nema niti statistike o Africi

to know what is happening."

da se sazna šta se događa."

I'll prove them wrong on both points.

Dokazaću da nisu u pravu za obe stvari.

Come with me to the wonderful world of statistics.

Pođite sa mnom u čudesni svet statistike.

I bring you to the webpage, ChildMortality.org,

Vodim vas na internet stranicu ChildMortality.org,

where you can take deaths in children

gde možete uzeti broj smrti dece

below five years of age for all countries --

ispod pet godina starosti za sve zemlje.

it's done by U.N. specialists.

Napravili su je UN-ovi stručnjaci.

And I will take Kenya as an example.

I uzeću Keniju kao primer.

Here you see the data.

Ovde vidite podatke.

Don't panic -- don't panic now, I'll help you through this.

Nemojte da paničite. Pomoćiću vam u tome.

It looks nasty, like in college

Izgleda grozno, kao na fakultetu kada niste voleli statistiku.

when you didn't like statistics.

But first thing, when you see dots like this,

Ali prva stvar, kada vidite tačke poput ovih,

you have to ask yourself:

treba da se pitate: odakle podaci dolaze?

from where do the data come?

What is the origin of the data?

Koje je poreklo podataka?

Is it so that in Kenya,

Je li tačno da u Keniji postoje doktori i drugi stručnjaci

there are doctors and other specialists

who write the death certificate at the death of the child

koji pišu potvrdu o smrti čim dete umre,

and it's sent to the statistical office?

i koja se šalje u statističku kancelariju?

No -- low-income countries like Kenya

Ne.

Zemlje s niskim standardom kao Kenija

still don't have that level of organization.

još uvek nemaju taj nivo organizovanosti.

It exists, but it's not complete

Ona postoji ali nije potpuna,

because so many deaths occur in the home

jer se puno smrti događa u kući s porodicom,

with the family,

and it's not registered.

i ne beleže se.

What we rely on is not an incomplete system.

Ono na šta se oslanjamo nije nepotpun sistem.

We have interviews, we have surveys.

Imamo intervjue, ankete.

And this is highly professional

I to su strogo profesionalne ženske ispitivačice

female interviewers

who sit down for one hour with a woman

koje će sedeti sa ženom jedan sat

and ask her about [her] birth history.

i pitati je o istoriji njenih rađanja.

How many children did you have?

Koliko ste imali dece?

Are they alive?

Jesu li živa?

If they died, at what age and what year?

Ako su umrla, koliko su godina imala i koje godine?

And then this is done in a representative sample

I to je onda rađeno na reprezentativnom uzorku

of thousands of women in the country

hiljada žena u zemlji

and put together in what used to be called

i objedinjeno u onome što se ranije zvalo

a demographic health survey report.

izveštaj o demografskom ispitivanju zdravlja.

But these surveys are costly,

Ali ta ispitivanja koštaju,

so they can only be done [in] three- to five-year intervals.

i mogu biti urađena tek u intervalima od tri do pet godina.

But they have good quality.

Ali su jako kvalitetna.

So this is a limitation.

Tako da je to ograničenje.

And all these colored lines here are results;

I sve ove obojene linije su rezultati;

each color is one survey.

svaka boja je jedno ispitivanje.

But that's too complicated for today, so I'll simplify it for you,

Ali to je previše komplikovano za danas, pa ću vam pojednostaviti

and I give you one average point for each survey.

i daću vam po jednu prosečnu tačku svakog ispitivanja.

This was 1977, 1988,

To je bila 1977, 1988,

1992, '97

1992, '97.

and 2002.

i 2002.

And when the experts in the U.N.

I kad su stručnjaci u Ujedinjenim nacijama

have got these surveys in place in their database,

postavili ispitivanja u bazama podataka,

then they use advanced mathematical formulas

tada su upotrebili napredne matematičke formule

to produce a trend line, and the trend line looks like this.

da dobiju liniju smera, a linija smera izgleda ovako.

See here -- it's the best fit they can get of this point.

Pogledajte.

Ovo je najbolje podudaranje koje mogu ovde da dobijem.

But watch out --

Ali pazite.

they continue the line

Oni produžuju liniju

beyond the last point

iza zadnje tačke u ništa.

out into nothing.

And they estimated that in 2008,

I procenili su kako će, 2008,

Kenya had per child mortality of 128.

Kenija imati smrtnost dece od 128.

And I was sad,

I bio sam tužan,

because we could see

jer smo mogli da vidimo taj preokret u Keniji

this reversal in Kenya

with an increased child mortality in the 90s.

s porastom dečije smrtnosti u '90-im.

It was so tragic.

To je bilo baš tragično.

But in June, I got a mail in my inbox

Ali u junu sam dobio e-mail

from Demographic Health Surveys,

od Demografskih ispitivanja zdravlja

and it showed good news from Kenya.

i bile su dobre vesti iz Kenije.

I was so happy.

I bio sam tako srećan.

This was the estimate of the new survey.

Ovo je bila procena novog ispitivanja.

Then it just took another three months

I onda je trebalo samo još tri meseca

for [the] U.N. to get it into their server,

kako bi ih UN stavio na svoj server,

and on Friday we got the new trend line --

i u petak smo dobili novu liniju trenda.

it was down here.

I bila je ovde dole.

Nije li to lepo? Nije li to lepo, ha?

Isn't it nice -- isn't it nice, yeah?

I was actually, on Friday, sitting in front of my computer,

Ja sam zapravo u petak sedeo ispred svog računara,

and I saw the death rate fall

i video broj smrti kako pada

from 128 to 84 just that morning.

s 128 na 84 samo tog jutra.

So we celebrated.

Pa smo slavili.

Ali sada, kada imamo ovu liniju trenda,

But now, when you have this trend line,

how do we measure progress?

kako merimo napredak?

I'm going into some details here,

Sada idem malo u detalje,

because [the] U.N. do it like this.

jer UN to tako radi.

They start [in] 1990 -- they measure to 2009.

Počnu 1990. mere do 2009.

They say, "0.9 percent, no progress."

Kažu: "0,9 procenata, nema napretka."

That's unfair.

To nije pošteno.

As a professor, I think I have the right to propose something differently.

Kao profesor, mislim da imam pravo da predložim nešto drugačije.

I would say, at least do this --

Rekao bih, učinite barem ovo.

10 years is enough to follow the trend.

Deset godina je dovoljno za praćenje trenda.

It's two surveys, and you can see what's happening now.

To su dva ispitivanja i možete videti šta se sada događa.

They have 2.4 percent.

Imaju 2,4 procenta.

Had I been in the Ministry of Health in Kenya,

Da sam ja u Ministarstvu zdravlja u Keniji,

I may have joined these two points.

možda bih spojio ove dve tačke.

So what I'm telling you

Govorim vam da mi znamo smrtnost dece.

is that we know the child mortality.

We have a decent trend.

Imamo pristojan trend.

It's coming into some tricky things then

Dolazimo do varljivih stvari

when we are measuring MDGs.

kad merimo Milenijumske razvojne ciljeve.

And the reason here for Africa is especially important,

Iako je razlog za Afriku izuzetno važan,

because '90s was a bad decade,

jer su '90. bile loša decenija,

not only in Kenya, but across Africa.

ne samo u Keniji, nego u celoj Africi.

The HIV epidemic peaked.

Epidemija HIV-a došla je do vrhunca.

There was resistance for the old malaria drugs, until we got the new drugs.

Bilo je otpora na stare lekove za malariju, dok nismo dobili nove.

We got, later, the mosquito netting.

A kasnije smo dobili i mreže protiv komaraca.

And there was socio-economic problems,

Bilo je i društveno-ekonomskih problema,

which are now being solved at a much better scale.

koji se sada rešavaju u puno većem opsegu.

So look at the average here --

Pogledajte ovde prosek.

this is the average for all of sub-Saharan Africa.

Ovo je prosek cele Afrike južno od Sahare.

And [the] U.N. says

I Ujedinjene nacije kažu

it's a reduction with 1.8 percent.

da je to smanjenje od 1,8 procenata.

Now this sounds a little theoretical,

Ovo sada zvuči pomalo teoretski,

but it's not so theoretical.

ali nije toliko teoretski.

You know, these economists,

Znate, ti ekonomisti,

vole novac i žele ga sve više i više, žele da raste.

they love money, they want more and more of it, they want it to grow.

Pa računaju procenat godišnjeg porasta ekonomije.

So they calculate the percent annual growth rate of [the] economy.

We in public health, we hate child death,

Mi u javnom zdravstvu, mi mrzimo dečije smrti,

so we want less and less and less of child deaths.

stoga želimo sve manje i manje dečijih smrti.

So we calculate the percent reduction per year,

Pa računamo procenat smanjenja po godini.

but it's sort of the same percentage.

Ali i to je ista vrsta procenta.

If your economy grows with four percent,

Ako vaša ekonomija raste za četiri procenta,

you ought to reduce child mortality four percent;

treba smanjiti dečiju smrtnost za četiri procenta,

if it's used well and people are really involved

ako je dobro upotrebljeno i ako su ljudi stvarno uključeni

and can get the use of the resources in the way they want it.

i mogu koristiti sredstva na način koji žele.

So is this fair now to measure this over 19 years?

Je li onda pošteno to meriti kroz 19 godina?

An economist would never do that.

Ekonomista to nikada ne bi uradio.

I have just divided it into two periods.

Podelio sam to na dva dela.

In the 90s, only 1.2 percent,

U '90-im, samo 1,2 pšrocenta,

only 1.2 percent.

samo 1,2 procenta.

Whereas now, second gear --

A sada, druga brzina -

it's like Africa had first gear,

to je kao da je Afrika imala prvu brzinu,

now they go into second gear.

i sada su krenuli u drugu brzinu.

But even this

Ali čak i to nije pošteno predstavljanje Aftrike,

is not a fair representation of Africa,

because it's an average,

jer je to prosek,

it's an average speed of reduction in Africa.

to je prosečna brzina smanjenja u Africi.

And look here when I take you into my bubble graphs.

Pogledajte ovde, kada vas odvedem u moje grafike s balončićima.

Still here,

Još uvek ovde

child death per 1,000 on that axis.

broj smrti dece na 1.000 je na onoj osi.

Here we have [the] year.

Ovde imamo godinu.

And I'm now giving you a wider picture than the MDG.

I sad vam dajem širu sliku od Milenijumskih razvojnih ciljeva.

I start 50 years ago

Počinjem od pre 50 godina

when Africa celebrated independence in most countries.

kada je Afrika slavila nezavisnost u većini zemalja.

I give you Congo, which was high,

Evo vam Kongo, koji je bio visoko,

Ghana -- lower. And Kenya -- even lower.

Gana, niže, a Kenija još niže.

And what has happened over the years since then? Here we go.

I šta se događalo od tada kroz godine? Idemo.

You can see, with independence, literacy improved

Vidite, s nezavisnosti, popravila se pismenost

and vaccinations started, smallpox was eradicated,

i počela su vakcinisanja, velike boginje su iskorenjene,

hygiene was improved, and things got better.

higijena se popravila i stvari su se poboljšale.

But then, in the '80s, watch out here.

Ali onda, u '80-im, pogledajte ovde.

Congo got into civil war,

Kongo je ušao u građanski rat,

and they leveled off here.

i stali su na tom nivou.

Ghana got very ahead, fast.

Gana je brzo napredovala.

This was the backlash in Kenya, and Ghana bypassed,

Kenija ovde usporava, Gana je pretiče,

but then Kenya and Ghana go down together --

ali onda Kenija i Gana zajedno kreću prema dole -

still a standstill in Congo.

još uvek je zastoj u Kongu.

That's where we are today.

Ovde smo danas.

(Smeh)

You can see it doesn't make sense

Možete videti, nema smisla praviti prosek ovih nikakvih poboljšanja

to make an average of this zero improvement

and this very fast improvement.

i ovih jako brzih poboljšanja.

Time has come

Došlo je doba kada moramo prestati da razmišljamo

to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa as one place.

o podsaharskoj Africi kao o jednom mestu.

Their countries are so different,

Te su zemlje tako različite,

and they merit to be recognized in the same way,

i zaslužuju da se kao takve i prepoznaju,

kao što ni o Evropi ne govorimo kao o jednom mestu.

as we don't talk about Europe as one place.

I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden are very different --

Mogu vam reći kako su ekonomije u Grčkoj i Švedskoj vrlo različite.

everyone knows that.

Svi to znaju.

And they are judged, each country, on how they are doing.

I o svakoj zemlji se sudi pojedinačno kako im je.

So let me show the wider picture.

Dajte da vam pokažem širu sliku.

My country, Sweden:

Moja zemlja, Švedska:

1800. bili smo ovde gore.

1800, we were up there.

What a strange personality disorder we must have,

Kakav mi to čudan poremećaj ličnosti mora da imamo,

counting the children so meticulously in spite of a high child death rate.

kada brojimo decu tako pedantno uprkos visokim stopama njihove smrtnosti.

It's very strange. It's sort of embarrassing.

To je jako čudno. Na neki način je sramota.

But we had that habit in Sweden, you know,

Ali mi smo u Švedskoj imali tu naviku, znate,

that we counted all the child deaths,

da smo brojali sve dečije smrti,

čak i ako nismo ništa oko toga preduzimali.

even if we didn't do anything about it.

And then, you see, these were famine years.

A onda, vidite, ovo su godine gladi.

These were bad years, and people got fed up with Sweden.

To su bile loše godine i ljudima je bilo dosta Švedske.

My ancestors moved to the United States.

Moji preci su se preselili u SAD.

And eventually, soon they started to get better and better here.

I konačno, ubrzo je situacija ovde počela da se popravlja.

And here we got better education, and we got health service,

Dobili smo bolje obrazovanje i zdravstvo,

and child mortality came down.

smrtnost dece se smanjila.

We never had a war; Sweden was in peace all this time.

Mi nikad nismo imali rat, Švedska je bila u miru svo to vreme.

But look, the rate of lowering

Ali pogledajte, stopa smanjivanja u Švedskoj

in Sweden

was not fast.

nije bila brza.

Sweden achieved a low child mortality

Švedska je dosegla nisku smrtnost dece

because we started early.

zato što je počela rano.

Osnovna škola kod nas počela je 1842.

We had primary school actually

started in 1842.

And then you get that wonderful effect

I tada dobijete taj predivan učinak

when we got female literacy

kada je narasla ženska pismenost

one generation later.

jednu generaciju nakon toga.

You have to realize that the investments we do in progress

Morate shvatiti da su ulaganja u napredak koja radimo,

are long-term investments.

dugoročna ulaganja.

It's not about just five years --

Ne radi se samo o pet godina.

To su dugoročna ulaganja.

it's long-term investments.

I Švedska nikada nije dosegla brzinu iz Milenijumskih razvojnih ciljeva,

And Sweden never reached [the] Millennium Development Goal rate,

3.1 percent when I calculated.

3,1 posto, kako sam ja to izračunao.

So we are off track -- that's what Sweden is.

Dakle skrenuli smo s puta. To je znači Švedska.

But you don't talk about it so much.

Ali o tome baš ne govorimo.

We want others to be better than we were, and indeed, others have been better.

Želimo da drugi budu bolji od nas I zaista, drugi su bili bolji.

Let me show you Thailand,

Dozvolite da vam pokažem Tajland,

see what a success story, Thailand from the 1960s --

pogledajte koja je to uspešna priča, Tajland od 1960-ih -

how they went down here

kako su ovde krenuli dole

and reached almost the same child mortality levels as Sweden.

i dosegli skoro istu smrtnost dece kao Švedska.

And I'll give you another story -- Egypt,

Daću vam drugu priču, Egipat,

the most hidden, glorious success in public health.

najbolje skriven, slavni uspeh u javnom zdravstvu.

Egypt was up here in 1960,

Egipat je bio ovde gore 1960,

higher than Congo.

više od Konga.

The Nile Delta was a misery for children

Delta Nila bila je patnja za decu

with diarrheal disease

s dijarejom i malarijom i puno problema.

and malaria and a lot of problems.

And then they got the Aswan Dam. They got electricity in their homes,

Onda su dobili asuansku branu. Dobili su struju u svojim kućama.

they increased education

Povećali su obrazovanje.

and they got primary health care.

I dobili su primarnu zdravstvenu zaštitu.

And down they went, you know.

I došli su dole, znate.

And they got safer water, they eradicated malaria.

I dobili su čišću vodu, iskorenili su malariju.

And isn't it a success story.

Zar to nije priča o uspehu.

Millennium Development Goal rates for child mortality

Stope milenijumskih razvojnih ciljeva za dečiju smrtnost su sasvim moguće.

is fully possible.

And the good thing is

I dobre vesti su da Gana danas ide istom brzinom kao Egipat

that Ghana today is going with the same rate

as Egypt did at its fastest.

kada je bio najbrži.

Kenya is now speeding up.

Sada i Kenija ubrzava.

Here we have a problem.

Tu imamo problem.

Imamo ozbiljan problem u zemljama koje su u zastoju.

We have a severe problem in countries which are at a standstill.

Dopustite da vam sad pokažem širu sliku,

Now, let me now bring you to a wider picture,

a wider picture of child mortality.

širu sliku dečije smrtnost.

I'm going to show you the relationship

Pokazaću vam odnos

between child mortality on this axis here --

između smrtnosti dece na ovoj osi -

this axis here is child mortality --

ova ovde osa je dečija smrtnost -

and here I have the family size.

a ovde imamo veličinu porodice.

The relationship between child mortality and family size.

Odnos između dečije smrtnosti i veličine porodice.

One, two, three, four children per woman:

Jedno, dvoje, troje, četvoro dece po ženi.

six, seven, eight children per woman.

Šestoro, sedmoro, osmoro dece po ženi.

This is, once again, 1960 --

Ovo je, još jednom, 1960,

50 years ago.

pred 50 godina.

Each bubble is a country --

Svaki balončić je jedna zemlja.

the color, you can see, a continent.

Boje koje vidite, su kontinenti.

Ovaj tamno plavi je podsaharska Afrika.

The dark blue here is sub-Saharan Africa.

And the size of the bubble is the population.

Veličina balončića je ukupno stanovništvo.

A ovo su takozvane zemlje "u razvoju".

And these are

the so-called "developing" countries.

They had high, or very high, child mortality

Imale su visoku ili vrlo visoku smrtnost dece

and family size, six to eight.

a veličina porodice, šest do osam.

And the ones over there,

A ovo ovde su takozvane Zapadne zemlje.

they were so-called Western countries.

They had low child mortality

One su imale nisku smrtnost dece

and small families.

i male porodice.

What has happened?

Šta se dogodilo?

What I want you [to do] now is to see with your own eyes

Želim da sada vidite sopstvenim očima

the relation between fall in child mortality

odnos između pada smrtnosti dece

and decrease in family size.

i smanjenja veličine porodice.

I just want not to have any room for doubt --

Jednostavno ne želim da ostavim mesta za sumnju.

you have to see that for yourself.

Morate videti sami.

This is what happened. Now I start the world.

Ovo se dogodilo. Sad pokrećem svet.

Here we come down with the eradication of

Ovde smo išli dole, s iskorenjivanjem velikih boginja,

smallpox, better education,

boljim obrazovanjem,

health service.

zdravstvenom zaštitom.

It got down there -- China comes into the Western box here.

Dovde dole se došlo - Kina dolazi u zapadnjačku kućicu.

And here Brazil is in the Western Box.

A ovde je Brazil u zapadnjačkoj kućici.

India is approaching. The first African countries coming into the Western box,

Indija stiže. Prve afričke zemlje stižu u zapadnjačku kućicu.

and we get a lot a new neighbors.

Dobijamo mnogo novih suseda.

Welcome to a decent life.

Dobrodošli u pristojan život.

Come on. We want everyone down there.

Hajde. Želimo da svi dođu ovde dole.

This is the vision we have, isn't it.

To je vizija koju imamo, zar ne?

And look now, the first African countries here are coming in.

I pogledajte sada, prve afričke zemlje stižu.

There we are today.

Tu smo danas.

There is no such thing

Ne postoji taj "zapadni svet" i "svet u razvoju".

as a "Western world" and "developing world."

This is the report from [the] U.N.,

Ovo je izveštaj UN-a,

which came out on Friday.

koji je izašao u petak.

It's very good -- "Levels and Trends in Child Mortality" --

Jako je dobar -

"Nivoi i kretanja dečije smrtnosti" -

except this page.

osim ove stranice.

This page is very bad;

Ova stranica je jako loša.

it's a categorization of countries.

To je kategorizacija zemalja.

It labels "developing countries," -- I can read from the list here --

Navodi "zemlje u razvoju" - mogu vam pročitati sa liste -

developing countries: Republic of Korea -- South Korea.

zemlje u razvoju: Republika Koreja - Južna Koreja.

Huh?

Molim?

They get Samsung, how can they be [a] developing country?

Imaju Samsung, kako mogu biti zemlja u razvoju?

They have here Singapore.

Ovde imaju i Singapur.

Oni imaju najnižu smrtnost dece na svetu, Singapur.

They have the lowest child mortality in the world, Singapore.

They bypassed Sweden five years ago,

Pretekli su Švedsku pre pet godina,

and they are labeled a developing country.

a označeni su kao zemlja u razvoju.

They have here Qatar.

Ovde imaju i Katar.

It's the richest country in the world with Al Jazeera.

To je najbogatija zemlja u svetu sa Al Džazirom.

How the heck could they be [a] developing country?

Kako dođavola oni mogu biti zemlja u razvoju?

This is crap.

Ovo je budalaština.

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

The rest here is good -- the rest is good.

Ostatak ovoga je u redu. Ostatak je dobar.

We have to have a modern concept,

Moramo imati moderni koncept,

which fits to the data.

koji odgovara podacima.

And we have to realize

Moramo shvatiti da ćemo svi živeti ovde, ovde dole.

that we are all going to into this, down to here.

What is the importance now with the relations here.

Kakva je važnost ovih ovde odnosa, pogledajte.

Look -- even if we look in Africa --

Čak i ako pogledamo Afriku.

these are the African countries.

Ovo su afričke zemlje.

You can clearly see the relation with falling child mortality

Jasno možete videti povezanost smanjenja dečije smrtnosti

and decreasing family size,

i smanjenja veličine porodice,

even within Africa.

čak i unutar Afrike.

It's very clear that this is what happens.

Vrlo je jasno da je to ono što se događa.

And a very important piece of research came out on Friday

I jako važno istraživanje izašlo je u petak

from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle

iz Instituta za merenje i procenu zdravstva u Sijetlu,

showing that almost 50 percent

koje pokazuje da se skoro 50 procenata pada dečije smrtnosti

of the fall in child mortality

can be attributed to female education.

može pripisati obrazovanju žena.

That is, when we get girls in school,

To znači, kada devojčice idu u škole,

we'll get an impact 15 to 20 years later,

uticaj ćemo videti 15 do 20 godina kasnije,

which is a secular trend which is very strong.

što je vremenski trend i vrlo je jak.

That's why we must have that long-term perspective,

Zato moramo imati dugoročnu perspektivu,

but we must measure the impact

ali moramo meriti uticaj u razdobljima od 10 godina.

over 10-year periods.

It's fully possible

Sasvim je moguće

smanjiti smrtnost dece u svim ovim zemljama

to get child mortality down in all of these countries

and to get them down in the corner

i spustiti ih u ovaj ugao

where we all would like to live together.

gde bismo svi želeli zajedno da živimo.

Naravno, smanjenje dečije smrtnosti

And of course, lowering child mortality

is a matter of utmost importance

stvar je od najveće važnosti sa humanitarnog gledišta.

from humanitarian aspects.

It's a decent life for children,

Govorimo o pristojnom životu dece.

we are talking about.

But it is also a strategic investment

Ali to je takođe i strateško ulaganje

in the future of all mankind,

u budućnost celog čovečanstva,

because it's about the environment.

jer se radi i o okolini.

We will not be able to manage the environment

Nećemo moći da upravljamo okolinom

and avoid the terrible climate crisis

i izbegnemo užasnu klimatsku krizu

if we don't stabilize the world population.

ako ne stabilizujemo svetsku populaciju.

Let's be clear about that.

Budimo u tome jasni.

And the way to do that,

A način kako da to učinimo je da smanjimo dečiju smrtnost,

that is to get child mortality down, get access to family planning

osiguramo pristup planiranju porodice

and behind that drive female education.

i iza toga sprovodimo obrazovanje žena.

And that is fully possible. Let's do it.

To je sasvim moguće. Učinimo to!

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)