Hans Rosling: The good news of the decade?

翻译人员: Angelia King 校对人员: Felix Chen

We are here today

今天我们因联合国

because [the] United Nations

为各国发展

have defined goals

所定下之目标

for the progress of countries.

而齐聚于此。

They're called Millennium Development Goals.

这些目标被称为千年发展目标。

And the reason I really like these goals

我喜欢此目标之原因

is that there are eight of them.

在于联合国把它一分为八。

And by specifying eight different goals,

通过细化这八项目标，

the United Nations has said

联合国认为

that there are so many things needed

我们尚要完成更多事情

to change in a country

来为一国之民

in order to get the good life for people.

创造更好的生活。

Look here -- you have to end poverty,

看看这里，我们须消灭极端贫困、

education, gender,

普及小学教育、促进两性平等、

child and maternal health,

降低儿童死亡率、改善产妇保健、

control infections, protect the environment

与疾病對抗、确保环境的可持续能力

and get the good global links between nations

和加强全球合作

in every aspect

以促进各方面

from aid to trade.

从援助到贸易上的发展。

There's a second reason I like these development goals,

另外还有一个原因促使我喜欢这些发展目标。

and that is because each and every one is measured.

那就是这些目标皆可具体量化。

Take child mortality;

以儿童死亡率为例，

the aim here is to reduce child mortality

千年发展目标计划于1990年始

by two-thirds,

至2015年止，儿童死亡率

from 1990 to 2015.

要降低三分之二，

That's a four percent reduction per year --

每年需减少百分之四的死亡率。

and this, with measuring.

这是可衡量的。

That's what makes the difference

这就是政治空谈

between political talking like this

与为人民

and really going for the important thing,

创造更好生活目标

a better life for people.

所具有的差别。

And what I'm so happy about with this

我现在很高兴，

is that we have already documented

因为已有很多

that there are many countries

亚洲、中东、拉丁美洲

in Asia, in the Middle East,

和东欧国家行动起来了，

in Latin America and East Europe

它们国家的儿童死亡率皆有所下降，

that [are] reducing with this rate.

这些成果都已被记录在案。

And even mighty Brazil is going down with five percent per year,

就连强大的巴西每年也减少了百分之五的儿童死亡率，

and Turkey with seven percent per year.

土耳其则每年减少百分之七。

So there's good news.

这些都是好消息。

But then I hear people saying, "There is no progress in Africa.

但我却听到有人说：“非洲情况还未改善。

And there's not even statistics on Africa

我们根本看不到非洲的统计数据。

to know what is happening."

我们不知道非洲发生了什么事。”

I'll prove them wrong on both points.

我要证明这些都是谬论。

Come with me to the wonderful world of statistics.

来，让我们一起进入美妙的数据世界。

I bring you to the webpage, ChildMortality.org,

你可以上这个网页：ChildMortality.org，

where you can take deaths in children

在这上面列有各国

below five years of age for all countries --

五岁以下儿童的死亡率。

it's done by U.N. specialists.

这是由联合国专家统计的。

And I will take Kenya as an example.

以肯尼亚为例，

Here you see the data.

看看这个数据。

Don't panic -- don't panic now, I'll help you through this.

别紧张，别紧张，我来帮助你们解读这些数据。

It looks nasty, like in college

这看起来很乱，正如你在大学里

when you didn't like statistics.

不喜欢上统计学课一样。

But first thing, when you see dots like this,

首先，当你看到这些点时，

you have to ask yourself:

你得先问问自己：

from where do the data come?

这些数据来源何处？

What is the origin of the data?

原始数据是怎么来的？

Is it so that in Kenya,

在肯尼亚有没有

there are doctors and other specialists

医生或其他专员

who write the death certificate at the death of the child

会在孩童死去时填写一张死亡证明

and it's sent to the statistical office?

且寄送至统计局呢？

No -- low-income countries like Kenya

没有。像肯尼亚这样的低收入国家

still don't have that level of organization.

尚没有健全的这类机构。

It exists, but it's not complete

就算有，设备也不齐全，

because so many deaths occur in the home

因为许多孩童

with the family,

是死于家中，

and it's not registered.

而且不会被登记在案。

What we rely on is not an incomplete system.

我们不能依靠这种缺陷重重的系统。

We have interviews, we have surveys.

我们进行访谈，深入调查。

And this is highly professional

这是一位极为专业的女性访问员，

female interviewers

她和一位女士

who sit down for one hour with a woman

坐了一个小时，

and ask her about [her] birth history.

询问对方的生育史。

How many children did you have?

你生了几个小孩？

Are they alive?

全都活着吗？

If they died, at what age and what year?

假若死了，是于何年几岁死的？

And then this is done in a representative sample

这就会成为该国

of thousands of women in the country

成千上万妇女的代表性样本，

and put together in what used to be called

这些样本会被收集起来

a demographic health survey report.

来放进人口健康调查报告里。

But these surveys are costly,

但这种调查花费甚巨，

so they can only be done [in] three- to five-year intervals.

所以只能每隔三到五年做一次。

But they have good quality.

但调查质量很高。

So this is a limitation.

只是经费有限制。

And all these colored lines here are results;

这些有颜色的线就是调查结果。

each color is one survey.

每一种颜色代表一次调查。

But that's too complicated for today, so I'll simplify it for you,

但这样看起来太复杂了，所以我会为你们简化这些数据，

and I give you one average point for each survey.

所以我就把这些数据平均一下。

This was 1977, 1988,

这是1977年、1988年、

1992, '97

1992年、1997年

and 2002.

和2002年。

And when the experts in the U.N.

当联合国专家们

have got these surveys in place in their database,

把这些数据存进资料库时，

then they use advanced mathematical formulas

他们就会用先进的数学公式

to produce a trend line, and the trend line looks like this.

来画出一条趋势线，如这一条趋势线。

See here -- it's the best fit they can get of this point.

看这里。这就是体现这数据资料的最佳趋势线。

But watch out --

注意看。

they continue the line

他们还将这条线

beyond the last point

往后延伸

out into nothing.

延伸至未来。

And they estimated that in 2008,

他们估计于2008年

Kenya had per child mortality of 128.

肯尼亚的儿童死亡率是每千个孩童有一百二十八个会死。

And I was sad,

我感到悲伤，

because we could see

因为我们能看到

this reversal in Kenya

在90年代的肯尼亚

with an increased child mortality in the 90s.

儿童死亡率呈上升，应该会有逆转性。

It was so tragic.

这是如此的糟糕。

But in June, I got a mail in my inbox

但在六月我在邮箱收到一封

from Demographic Health Surveys,

来自于人口健康调查的信，

and it showed good news from Kenya.

从肯尼亚那儿传来好消息。

I was so happy.

我很高兴。

This was the estimate of the new survey.

这是新调查的评估。

Then it just took another three months

随后联合国却又花了3个月时间

for [the] U.N. to get it into their server,

把这数据呈现在他们的数据服务器上，

and on Friday we got the new trend line --

在周五我们有了新的趋势线。

it was down here.

这儿呈下降趋势。

Isn't it nice -- isn't it nice, yeah?

它是不是很棒？很棒，对吧？

I was actually, on Friday, sitting in front of my computer,

在周五的那个早上，我确实坐在我电脑前，

and I saw the death rate fall

我看到死亡率

from 128 to 84 just that morning.

从128降到84.

So we celebrated.

我们为此庆祝了一下。

But now, when you have this trend line,

但现在，你有这趋势线，

how do we measure progress?

我们怎样衡量进步呢？

I'm going into some details here,

这儿我讲些细节，

because [the] U.N. do it like this.

因为联合国是像这样做的。

They start [in] 1990 -- they measure to 2009.

他们是从1990年到2009年进行衡量。

They say, "0.9 percent, no progress."

他们说，“0.9%，没有进步。”

That's unfair.

这不合理。

As a professor, I think I have the right to propose something differently.

做为一个教授，我认为我有权提出一些不同的东西。

I would say, at least do this --

我要说，至少做到这个。

10 years is enough to follow the trend.

10年来的趋势是足够长的。

It's two surveys, and you can see what's happening now.

这有2个调查，你可以看到现在发生的事。

They have 2.4 percent.

他们有2.4%的进步。

Had I been in the Ministry of Health in Kenya,

我要是在肯尼亚的卫生部，

I may have joined these two points.

我或许会为这两点进步而努力。

So what I'm telling you

所以我会告诉你

is that we know the child mortality.

我们了解这儿童死亡率。

We have a decent trend.

我们有了一个相当不错的趋势。

It's coming into some tricky things then

当我们衡量千年发展目标时，

when we are measuring MDGs.

一些棘手的事随之而来。

And the reason here for Africa is especially important,

对于非洲这儿的理由是非常重要的，

because '90s was a bad decade,

因为90年代是个糟糕的10年，

not only in Kenya, but across Africa.

不仅仅是在肯尼亚，而是遍布非洲

The HIV epidemic peaked.

艾滋病毒肆意泛滥。

There was resistance for the old malaria drugs, until we got the new drugs.

以前的抗疟疾药物有抗体不顶用，除非我们研发新药。

We got, later, the mosquito netting.

之后，我们有了蚊帐。

And there was socio-economic problems,

还有社会经济问题，

which are now being solved at a much better scale.

我们现在才以一个更好地方式解决这些问题。

So look at the average here --

所以看看这平均值。

this is the average for all of sub-Saharan Africa.

撒哈拉以南非洲国家的平均值在这儿。

And [the] U.N. says

联合国说

it's a reduction with 1.8 percent.

这平均值下降了1.8%。

Now this sounds a little theoretical,

这个现在听起来有点理论化，

but it's not so theoretical.

但这不是特理论的。

You know, these economists,

大家知道，这些经济学家

they love money, they want more and more of it, they want it to grow.

他们喜欢金钱，他们想要很多的钱，他们想让钱生钱。

So they calculate the percent annual growth rate of [the] economy.

所以他们计算经济年均增长百分比。

We in public health, we hate child death,

而我们关注公共卫生，我们不希望儿童死亡，

so we want less and less and less of child deaths.

所以我们期望越来越少的儿童死亡。

So we calculate the percent reduction per year,

所以我们每年计算降低率。

but it's sort of the same percentage.

但这是相同的百分比排序。

If your economy grows with four percent,

如果经济增长率为4%，

you ought to reduce child mortality four percent;

儿童死亡率就降低4%，

if it's used well and people are really involved

如果适当应用，人们很好地参与其中

and can get the use of the resources in the way they want it.

人们可以以他们想要的方式来使用资源。

So is this fair now to measure this over 19 years?

那么现在用19年来衡量这千年发展目标是合理的吗？

An economist would never do that.

一个经济学家决不会这样做。

I have just divided it into two periods.

我会把它分为2个阶段。

In the 90s, only 1.2 percent,

在90年代，只有1.2%，

only 1.2 percent.

只有1.2%降低率。

Whereas now, second gear --

而现在，第二阶段

it's like Africa had first gear,

好比非洲有第一阶段，

now they go into second gear.

现在非洲进入第二阶段。

But even this

但甚至这个

is not a fair representation of Africa,

都不能完全代表非洲，

because it's an average,

因为这只是平均值，

it's an average speed of reduction in Africa.

在非州降低率的平均值。

And look here when I take you into my bubble graphs.

看看这儿我的泡状图形。

Still here,

还是这儿，

child death per 1,000 on that axis.

纵轴每1000个孩子里的儿童死亡人数。

Here we have [the] year.

这儿看到的是年数。

And I'm now giving you a wider picture than the MDG.

我现在呈现给你比千年发展目标视角更宏观的数据图。

I start 50 years ago

我从50年前举例

when Africa celebrated independence in most countries.

非洲大多数国家庆祝独立。

I give you Congo, which was high,

我给大家举例，刚果的儿童死亡数很高，

Ghana -- lower. And Kenya -- even lower.

加纳的较低，肯尼亚的更低点。

And what has happened over the years since then? Here we go.

自那以后发生了什么事呢？我们在这儿

You can see, with independence, literacy improved

大家能看到，随着国家独立，人们读写能力的提高，

and vaccinations started, smallpox was eradicated,

人们接种疫苗接种，天花被消灭，

hygiene was improved, and things got better.

卫生保健得到改善，一切都好起来。

But then, in the '80s, watch out here.

但随后，在80年代，看看这里。

Congo got into civil war,

刚果经历内战，

and they leveled off here.

它们在这里持稳。

Ghana got very ahead, fast.

加纳以非常快的速度领先着。

This was the backlash in Kenya, and Ghana bypassed,

肯尼亚数据也激烈变化着，加纳超过了肯尼亚，

but then Kenya and Ghana go down together --

随后肯尼亚和加纳的儿童死亡人数都在下降。

still a standstill in Congo.

刚果的还没变化。

That's where we are today.

这就是现在我们所处的境地。

You can see it doesn't make sense

各位ikeyi看到，这个

to make an average of this zero improvement

零改善和这个非常快速的改善的

and this very fast improvement.

平均值不具有任何意义。

Time has come

时间加以证明

to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa as one place.

不要把撒哈拉以南非洲国家当作一个区域来混淆。

Their countries are so different,

这些国家是如此不同，

and they merit to be recognized in the same way,

他们理应被正确地认识，

as we don't talk about Europe as one place.

正如我们不会说欧洲是一个地方。

I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden are very different --

我可以告诉你在希腊和瑞典的经济是截然不同的。

everyone knows that.

大家都晓得。

And they are judged, each country, on how they are doing.

这得按各国情况来做评估。

So let me show the wider picture.

然后我给大家看看这更宏观的数据图。

My country, Sweden:

拿我的国家瑞典来说：

1800, we were up there.

1800年我们的儿童死亡数在这儿。

What a strange personality disorder we must have,

尽管有高儿童死亡率，我们那时得需要多么奇怪的心理

counting the children so meticulously in spite of a high child death rate.

来仔细地统计儿童死亡数。

It's very strange. It's sort of embarrassing.

这非常奇怪，也令人尴尬。

But we had that habit in Sweden, you know,

但大家知道，我们在瑞典有个风俗

that we counted all the child deaths,

我们记录所有儿童死亡数

even if we didn't do anything about it.

即使我们为此做不了什么。

And then, you see, these were famine years.

然后大家看到，这是饥荒年，

These were bad years, and people got fed up with Sweden.

糟糕的年代，人们在瑞典混不下去了。

My ancestors moved to the United States.

我的祖先移民到美国。

And eventually, soon they started to get better and better here.

不久之后，他们生活变好起来。

And here we got better education, and we got health service,

这儿我们得到良好的教育，公共医疗保健服务，

and child mortality came down.

儿童死亡数才降下来。

We never had a war; Sweden was in peace all this time.

我们没有战争，瑞典一直以来处于和平年代。

But look, the rate of lowering

但看一下，

in Sweden

在瑞典的降低率

was not fast.

变化不是非常快。

Sweden achieved a low child mortality

瑞典达到低儿童死亡数

because we started early.

由于我们早期开始的工作。

We had primary school actually

我们实际

started in 1842.

在1842年开始有小学教育。

And then you get that wonderful effect

随后在一代人之后

when we got female literacy

当女性有识字能力

one generation later.

这才有了显著作用。

You have to realize that the investments we do in progress

大家得意识到我们所取得的进步投资

are long-term investments.

是个长远投资。

It's not about just five years --

这不仅仅是5年的，

it's long-term investments.

而是个长远投资。

And Sweden never reached [the] Millennium Development Goal rate,

我计算时发现瑞典还没达到千年发展目标的

3.1 percent when I calculated.

儿童死亡率3.1%。

So we are off track -- that's what Sweden is.

我们还没达到这目标。这就是瑞典的现状。

But you don't talk about it so much.

但我们不经常谈这个。

We want others to be better than we were, and indeed, others have been better.

我们想让其他国家比我们瑞典做得更好。的确，其他国家已经做得很好了。

Let me show you Thailand,

让我给大家展示下泰国的数据，

see what a success story, Thailand from the 1960s --

看看泰国自从1960年取得了多么成功的进步，

how they went down here

他们是怎样降低这数据

and reached almost the same child mortality levels as Sweden.

几乎到达和瑞典一样的儿童死亡率水平上。

And I'll give you another story -- Egypt,

我会给大家另一个例子，埃及，

the most hidden, glorious success in public health.

在公共卫生上常常被人忽视，但取得辉煌的成就。

Egypt was up here in 1960,

在1960年埃及在这儿的数据

higher than Congo.

比刚果的还要高。

The Nile Delta was a misery for children

尼罗河三角洲的儿童过着苦难的生活，

with diarrheal disease

他们得腹泻性痢疾

and malaria and a lot of problems.

疟疾和面对很多问题。

And then they got the Aswan Dam. They got electricity in their homes,

然后埃及建有阿斯旺大坝。家中通电了。

they increased education

他们普及教育。

and they got primary health care.

也普及基本的医疗保健。

And down they went, you know.

大家都晓得，他们的儿童死亡率在下降。

And they got safer water, they eradicated malaria.

他们有安全饮用水，消灭了疟疾。

And isn't it a success story.

这难道不是个成功的故事吗？

Millennium Development Goal rates for child mortality

儿童死亡率的千年发展目标

is fully possible.

是完全有可能实现的。

And the good thing is

好消息是

that Ghana today is going with the same rate

今天的加纳在以

as Egypt did at its fastest.

埃及所取得成功的最快速率变化着。

Kenya is now speeding up.

肯尼亚现在也加快速率。

Here we have a problem.

我们这儿还有问题。

We have a severe problem in countries which are at a standstill.

在没任何变化的国家身上，我们面临很严重的问题。

Now, let me now bring you to a wider picture,

现在我带大家看一个更宏观的数据图，

a wider picture of child mortality.

儿童死亡率的泡状图形。

I'm going to show you the relationship

我展示给大家

between child mortality on this axis here --

这儿纵轴儿童死亡率

this axis here is child mortality --

如这纵轴儿童死亡率所示

and here I have the family size.

和这儿家庭规模之间的关系。

The relationship between child mortality and family size.

在儿童死亡率和家庭规模之间的关系。

One, two, three, four children per woman:

每个女人有一个，两个，三个，四个孩子

six, seven, eight children per woman.

六个，七个，八个孩子。

This is, once again, 1960 --

这是50年前，1960年

50 years ago.

那时的数据。

Each bubble is a country --

每个泡泡代表一个国家。

the color, you can see, a continent.

大家看到的颜色是指一个洲。

The dark blue here is sub-Saharan Africa.

这儿深蓝色代表撒哈拉以南非洲国家。

And the size of the bubble is the population.

泡泡的面积代表人口。

And these are

这些国家是

the so-called "developing" countries.

所谓的“发展中”国家。

They had high, or very high, child mortality

他们有高的，极高的儿童死亡率

and family size, six to eight.

家庭规模是6到8人。

And the ones over there,

在这儿的国家

they were so-called Western countries.

是西方国家

They had low child mortality

他们有低儿童死亡率

and small families.

和小家庭。

What has happened?

接下来会发生什么呢？

What I want you [to do] now is to see with your own eyes

我现在想让大家亲眼看看

the relation between fall in child mortality

在儿童死亡率的降低

and decrease in family size.

和家庭规模缩小上的变化。

I just want not to have any room for doubt --

我想这没有什么好质疑的。

you have to see that for yourself.

你亲自看这些变化。

This is what happened. Now I start the world.

这就是所发生的事实。我现在展开世界的数据图。

Here we come down with the eradication of

这儿我们消灭了

smallpox, better education,

天花，提供良好的教育

health service.

和保健服务。

It got down there -- China comes into the Western box here.

数据在这儿呈下降--中国进入西方阵营。

And here Brazil is in the Western Box.

随后巴西也加入西方阵营。

India is approaching. The first African countries coming into the Western box,

印度在追赶。第一批非洲国家加入到西方阵营。

and we get a lot a new neighbors.

我们有了很多新伙伴。

Welcome to a decent life.

欢迎来过上一种体面的生活。

Come on. We want everyone down there.

来吧，我们想让每个人都加入我们。

This is the vision we have, isn't it.

这是我们的愿景，不是吗？

And look now, the first African countries here are coming in.

看看现在，这儿的第一批非洲国家纷纷而至。

There we are today.

这儿就是我们现在的事实。

There is no such thing

这儿没有特别划分

as a "Western world" and "developing world."

“西方国家”和“发展中国家”。

This is the report from [the] U.N.,

这是一份来自联合国

which came out on Friday.

2月份的报告。

It's very good -- "Levels and Trends in Child Mortality" --

它非常棒--“儿童死亡率水平及发展趋势”

except this page.

除了这一页。

This page is very bad;

这一页很糟糕。

it's a categorization of countries.

它给各国分类了。

It labels "developing countries," -- I can read from the list here --

它还分类“发展中国家”--我这儿读到的列表--

developing countries: Republic of Korea -- South Korea.

发展中国家：大韩民国--韩国。

Huh?

啊？

They get Samsung, how can they be [a] developing country?

韩国有三星品牌，他们怎么会是发展中国家呢？

They have here Singapore.

这列表里有新加坡。

They have the lowest child mortality in the world, Singapore.

新加坡在全球有最低的儿童死亡率。

They bypassed Sweden five years ago,

它们在5年前就超过瑞典，

and they are labeled a developing country.

它们被归为发展中国家。

They have here Qatar.

这儿还有卡塔尔。

It's the richest country in the world with Al Jazeera.

它是全球最富有的国家，还有阿拉伯半岛新闻电视台。

How the heck could they be [a] developing country?

真见鬼把它们都归为发展中国家？

This is crap.

这就是垃圾。

(Applause)

（掌声）

The rest here is good -- the rest is good.

这儿的其它报告都是好的。

We have to have a modern concept,

我们得有现代观念

which fits to the data.

来理解这数据。

And we have to realize

我们得知道

that we are all going to into this, down to here.

我们都会朝这个儿童低死亡率趋势发展。

What is the importance now with the relations here.

重要的是了解这之间的关系。

Look -- even if we look in Africa --

看看。我们拿非洲举例。

these are the African countries.

这些是非洲国家。

You can clearly see the relation with falling child mortality

甚至在非洲国家里，你就能很清楚地看到儿童死亡率的下降

and decreasing family size,

和家庭规模的缩小

even within Africa.

之间的关系。

It's very clear that this is what happens.

这发生的变化是很明显的。

And a very important piece of research came out on Friday

在周五有个非常重要的研究资料

from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle

它来自西雅图卫生测量与评价研究所

showing that almost 50 percent

表明

of the fall in child mortality

儿童死亡率下降的一半

can be attributed to female education.

可能归功于女性教育。

That is, when we get girls in school,

这就是，当我们在学校教育女孩，

we'll get an impact 15 to 20 years later,

15到20年后我们会得到其影响，

which is a secular trend which is very strong.

这是个非常棒的长远趋势。

That's why we must have that long-term perspective,

这也是我们须有长远观点的原因，

but we must measure the impact

但我们必须衡量

over 10-year periods.

在10年间的变化影响。

It's fully possible

让所有这些国家的

to get child mortality down in all of these countries

儿童死亡率降低

and to get them down in the corner

并让他们都加入我们所处的这一阵营

where we all would like to live together.

这是完全有可能的。

And of course, lowering child mortality

当然，儿童死亡率的降低

is a matter of utmost importance

是人道主义方面最最重要的

from humanitarian aspects.

一件事。

It's a decent life for children,

这是为了让孩子过上一种有尊严的体面生活，

we are talking about.

如我们所谈到的。

But it is also a strategic investment

但这也是一个着眼于所有人类未来的

in the future of all mankind,

战略投资，

because it's about the environment.

因为这涉及环境。

We will not be able to manage the environment

如果我们不能稳定全球人口数，我们就不能作用于环境

and avoid the terrible climate crisis

并避免可怕的

if we don't stabilize the world population.

气候危机。

Let's be clear about that.

这一点我们大家都明白。

And the way to do that,

要做到这一点的方法，

that is to get child mortality down, get access to family planning

它就是降低儿童死亡率，实行计划生育，

and behind that drive female education.

随后带动女性教育。

And that is fully possible. Let's do it.

这些都是完全可行的。让我们大家努力做吧。

Thank you very much.

十分感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）