Hans Rosling: The good news of the decade?

169,600 views ・ 2010-10-07

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Translator: Nika Kotnik Reviewer: Ales Rosina
00:15
We are here today
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Danes smo tukaj,
00:17
because [the] United Nations
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ker so Združeni narodi
00:19
have defined goals
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določili cilje
00:21
for the progress of countries.
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za napredek držav.
00:23
They're called Millennium Development Goals.
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Imenujejo se Razvojni cilji tisočletja.
00:26
And the reason I really like these goals
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In razlog, da so mi ti cilji res všeč, je
00:29
is that there are eight of them.
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da jih je osem.
00:32
And by specifying eight different goals,
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In z določitvijo osmih različnih ciljev,
00:34
the United Nations has said
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so Združeni narodi dejali,
00:36
that there are so many things needed
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da je toliko stvari potrebno
00:38
to change in a country
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spremeniti v državi,
00:40
in order to get the good life for people.
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da bi ljudem zagotovili dobro življenje.
00:42
Look here -- you have to end poverty,
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Poglejte--odpraviti moramo revščino,
00:44
education, gender,
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izobrazba, spol,
00:46
child and maternal health,
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zdravje otroka in matere,
00:48
control infections, protect the environment
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nadzorovati okužbe, zaščititi okolje
00:51
and get the good global links between nations
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in pridobiti dobre globalne povezave med narodi
00:53
in every aspect
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v vseh pogledih,
00:55
from aid to trade.
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od pomoči do trga.
00:58
There's a second reason I like these development goals,
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Imam še drug razlog zakaj so mi ti razvojni cilji všeč,
01:01
and that is because each and every one is measured.
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in sicer zato, ker vsakega lahko merimo.
01:04
Take child mortality;
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Vzemimo na primer umrljivost otrok;
01:07
the aim here is to reduce child mortality
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naš cilj je zmanjšati umrljivost otrok
01:09
by two-thirds,
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za dve tretjini
01:11
from 1990 to 2015.
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od leta 1990 do 2015.
01:14
That's a four percent reduction per year --
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To pomeni 4 procentno znižanje vsako leto--
01:18
and this, with measuring.
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in to, z merjenjem.
01:20
That's what makes the difference
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V tem je razlika
01:22
between political talking like this
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med političnim govorjenjem-takole
01:24
and really going for the important thing,
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in resničnim trudom za pomembno stvar,
01:26
a better life for people.
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boljše življenje za ljudi.
01:29
And what I'm so happy about with this
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In tako zadovoljen sem s tem,
01:31
is that we have already documented
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ker smo že zabeležili,
01:33
that there are many countries
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da so mnoge države
01:35
in Asia, in the Middle East,
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v Aziji, na Srednjem Vzhodu
01:37
in Latin America and East Europe
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v Latinski Ameriki in Vzhodni Evropi
01:40
that [are] reducing with this rate.
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kjer se smrtnost zmanjšuje s to hitrostjo.
01:42
And even mighty Brazil is going down with five percent per year,
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In celo mogočna Brazilija se znižuje pet procentov na leto,
01:45
and Turkey with seven percent per year.
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in Turčija sedem procentov na leto.
01:47
So there's good news.
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Torej imamo dobre novice.
01:49
But then I hear people saying, "There is no progress in Africa.
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Ampak potem slišim ljudi, ki pravijo: "V Afriki ni nobenega napredka.
01:52
And there's not even statistics on Africa
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In Afriki sploh ni statistik,
01:54
to know what is happening."
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da bi vedeli, kaj se dogaja."
01:56
I'll prove them wrong on both points.
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Dokazal bom da se motijo v obeh stvareh.
01:59
Come with me to the wonderful world of statistics.
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Pridite z mano v čudoviti svet statistik.
02:02
I bring you to the webpage, ChildMortality.org,
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Prinašam vam stran, Childmortality.org (umrljivost otrok),
02:05
where you can take deaths in children
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kjer lahko vzamete število smrti otrok
02:07
below five years of age for all countries --
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starih manj kot 5 let za vse države--
02:10
it's done by U.N. specialists.
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to so naredili strokovnjaki ZN.
02:12
And I will take Kenya as an example.
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Kot primer bom vzel Kenijo.
02:14
Here you see the data.
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Tukaj vidite podatke.
02:16
Don't panic -- don't panic now, I'll help you through this.
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Brez panike-- brez panike, pomagal vam bom.
02:19
It looks nasty, like in college
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Izgleda grozno, kot na fakulteti,
02:21
when you didn't like statistics.
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ko niste marali statistike.
02:23
But first thing, when you see dots like this,
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Ampak prvo, kar morate narediti, ko vidite take pike,
02:25
you have to ask yourself:
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se morate vprašati:
02:27
from where do the data come?
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Od kod so prišli ti podatki?
02:29
What is the origin of the data?
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Kje je izvor teh podatkov?
02:31
Is it so that in Kenya,
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So v Keniji
02:33
there are doctors and other specialists
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tu doktorji in drugi specialisti
02:35
who write the death certificate at the death of the child
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ki napišejo potrdilo o smrti ob smri otroka
02:37
and it's sent to the statistical office?
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in ga pošljejo na statistični urad?
02:39
No -- low-income countries like Kenya
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Ne--v državah z nizkim dohodkom, kot je Kenija
02:42
still don't have that level of organization.
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še zmeraj nimajo te ravni organizacije.
02:45
It exists, but it's not complete
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Obstaja, ampak ni popolna
02:47
because so many deaths occur in the home
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ker se toliko smrti zgodi doma
02:50
with the family,
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v krogu družine
02:52
and it's not registered.
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in je neregistrirana.
02:54
What we rely on is not an incomplete system.
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Mi se ne zanašamo na nepopoln sistem.
02:56
We have interviews, we have surveys.
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Imamo intervjuje, vprašalnike.
02:59
And this is highly professional
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In to so visoko profesionalne
03:01
female interviewers
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ženske spraševalke
03:03
who sit down for one hour with a woman
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ki sedijo eno uro z žensko
03:05
and ask her about [her] birth history.
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in jo sprašujejo o njeni preteklosti.
03:07
How many children did you have?
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Koliko otrok ste imeli?
03:09
Are they alive?
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So živi?
03:11
If they died, at what age and what year?
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Če so umrli, katerega leta in koliko stari?
03:14
And then this is done in a representative sample
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In to se opravi na reprezentativnem vzorcu
03:16
of thousands of women in the country
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tisočih žensk v državi
03:19
and put together in what used to be called
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in združi v nečem, čemur smo včasih rekli
03:21
a demographic health survey report.
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poročilo o demografski analizi zdravja.
03:24
But these surveys are costly,
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Ampak take raziskave stanejo,
03:26
so they can only be done [in] three- to five-year intervals.
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zato jih lahko opravljamo le v tri do pet-letnih intervalih.
03:29
But they have good quality.
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Ampak so pa kvalitetne.
03:31
So this is a limitation.
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To je torej omejitev.
03:33
And all these colored lines here are results;
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In vse te barvne črte so rezultati;
03:36
each color is one survey.
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vsaka barva je ena raziskava.
03:38
But that's too complicated for today, so I'll simplify it for you,
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Ampak to je preveč zapleteno za danes, zato vam bom poenostavil,
03:41
and I give you one average point for each survey.
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in vam dal eno povprečno točko za vsako raziskavo.
03:44
This was 1977, 1988,
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To je bilo leta 1977, 1988,
03:47
1992, '97
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1992, '97
03:49
and 2002.
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in 2002.
03:52
And when the experts in the U.N.
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In ko imajo strokovnjaki v Z.N.
03:54
have got these surveys in place in their database,
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te raziskave v svoji bazi podatkov,
03:57
then they use advanced mathematical formulas
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potem uporabijo napredne matematične formule
04:00
to produce a trend line, and the trend line looks like this.
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da naredijo linijo trendov, in trend izgleda takole.
04:03
See here -- it's the best fit they can get of this point.
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Vidite tu-- to je najboljše ujemanje, ki ga lahko dobijo na tej točki.
04:06
But watch out --
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ampak pazite--
04:08
they continue the line
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črto nadaljujejo
04:10
beyond the last point
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prek zadnje točke
04:12
out into nothing.
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naprej v nič.
04:14
And they estimated that in 2008,
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In predvidevali so, da bo imela leta 2008
04:17
Kenya had per child mortality of 128.
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Kenija smrtnost otrok 128.
04:20
And I was sad,
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In bil sem žalosten
04:22
because we could see
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ker smo lahko videli
04:24
this reversal in Kenya
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ta obrat v Keniji
04:26
with an increased child mortality in the 90s.
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s povečano umrljivostjo otrok v devetdesetih.
04:29
It was so tragic.
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Bilo je tako tragično.
04:31
But in June, I got a mail in my inbox
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Ampak junija, je v moj nabiralnik prispelo pismo
04:34
from Demographic Health Surveys,
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iz Demografskih raziskav zdravja
04:36
and it showed good news from Kenya.
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in kazalo je dobre novice za Kenijo.
04:38
I was so happy.
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Bil sem tako srečen.
04:40
This was the estimate of the new survey.
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To so bila predvidevanja nove raziskave.
04:43
Then it just took another three months
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Potem je trajalo še tri mesece
04:45
for [the] U.N. to get it into their server,
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da so Z.N. to dali v svoj server
04:47
and on Friday we got the new trend line --
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in ta petek smo dobili novo linijo trendov --
04:50
it was down here.
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bila je tu spodaj.
04:52
Isn't it nice -- isn't it nice, yeah?
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Kaj ni lepo-- kaj ni lepo, kaj?
04:54
I was actually, on Friday, sitting in front of my computer,
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V petek sem sedel pred računalnikom
04:57
and I saw the death rate fall
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in videl padec umrljivosti
04:59
from 128 to 84 just that morning.
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z 128 na 84 prav tisto jutro.
05:02
So we celebrated.
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Zato smo praznovali.
05:04
But now, when you have this trend line,
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Ampak sedaj, ko imate to linijo trendov,
05:06
how do we measure progress?
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kako mermo napredek?
05:08
I'm going into some details here,
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Šel bom v detajle tukaj,
05:10
because [the] U.N. do it like this.
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ker to tako počnejo Z.N.
05:12
They start [in] 1990 -- they measure to 2009.
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Začnejo v letu 1990--in merijo do leta 2009.
05:15
They say, "0.9 percent, no progress."
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In rečejo, "0.9%, ni napredka."
05:18
That's unfair.
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To je nepošteno.
05:20
As a professor, I think I have the right to propose something differently.
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Kot profesor, mislim da imam pravico, da predlagam nekaj drugega.
05:23
I would say, at least do this --
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Rekel bom, storite vsaj to--
05:25
10 years is enough to follow the trend.
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10 let je dovolj da sledite trendu.
05:27
It's two surveys, and you can see what's happening now.
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To sta dve raziskavi, in lahko vidite kaj se dogaja sedaj.
05:30
They have 2.4 percent.
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imajo 2.4 procenta.
05:32
Had I been in the Ministry of Health in Kenya,
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Če bi bil na Ministrstvu za zdravje v Keniji,
05:34
I may have joined these two points.
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bi morda združil ti dve točki.
05:37
So what I'm telling you
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Kar vam torej govorim je,
05:39
is that we know the child mortality.
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da poznamo umrljivost otrok.
05:41
We have a decent trend.
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Imamo spodoben trend.
05:43
It's coming into some tricky things then
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Postane pa malo bolj zapleteno
05:45
when we are measuring MDGs.
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ko merimo MDG.
05:47
And the reason here for Africa is especially important,
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In razlog za Afriko je tu še posebej pomemben,
05:50
because '90s was a bad decade,
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ker so bila devetdeseta slabo desetletje,
05:52
not only in Kenya, but across Africa.
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ne samo v Keniji, ampak po vsej Afriki.
05:55
The HIV epidemic peaked.
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HIV epidemija je dosegla vrhunec
05:57
There was resistance for the old malaria drugs, until we got the new drugs.
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imeli smo rezistenco na stara zdravila proti malariji, dokler nismo dobili novih.
06:00
We got, later, the mosquito netting.
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Dobili smo, kasneje, mreže proti komarjem.
06:02
And there was socio-economic problems,
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in tu so bilo socio-ekonomski problemi,
06:04
which are now being solved at a much better scale.
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ki jih sedaj rešujemo na veliko boljši ravni.
06:07
So look at the average here --
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Poglejte torej povprečje tukaj--
06:09
this is the average for all of sub-Saharan Africa.
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to je povprečje za vso Podsaharsko Afriko.
06:11
And [the] U.N. says
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In Z.N. pravijo
06:13
it's a reduction with 1.8 percent.
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da gre za 1.8 procentno zmanjšanje.
06:16
Now this sounds a little theoretical,
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To zveni malo teoretično,
06:18
but it's not so theoretical.
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ampak ni tako teoretično.
06:20
You know, these economists,
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Veste, ti ekonomisti,
06:22
they love money, they want more and more of it, they want it to grow.
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ljubijo denar, hočejo vedno več in več, hočejo, da raste.
06:25
So they calculate the percent annual growth rate of [the] economy.
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Zato izračunajo procentno letno rast gospodarstva.
06:28
We in public health, we hate child death,
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Mi v javnem zdravju sovražimo smrt otrok,
06:31
so we want less and less and less of child deaths.
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zato hočemo manj in manj smrti otrok.
06:33
So we calculate the percent reduction per year,
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Zato izračunamo procentno zmanjašnje na leto,
06:35
but it's sort of the same percentage.
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ampak gre za nekako iste procente.
06:37
If your economy grows with four percent,
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Če tvoje gospodarstvo naraste za štiri procente
06:39
you ought to reduce child mortality four percent;
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naj bi se umrljivost otrok zmanjšala za 4 procente;
06:41
if it's used well and people are really involved
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če je dobro izkoriščena in so ljudje res vpleteni
06:44
and can get the use of the resources in the way they want it.
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in lahko izkoristijo vire kot si želijo.
06:47
So is this fair now to measure this over 19 years?
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Je torej pravično, da merimo to v razponu 19 let?
06:50
An economist would never do that.
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Ekonomist tega ne bi storil.
06:53
I have just divided it into two periods.
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Jaz sem ga samo razdelil v dve obdobji.
06:55
In the 90s, only 1.2 percent,
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V 90ih, samo 1.2 procenta,
06:58
only 1.2 percent.
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samo 1.2 procenta.
07:00
Whereas now, second gear --
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Ampak zdaj, v drugi prestavi--
07:02
it's like Africa had first gear,
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kot če bi bila Afrika v prvi prestavi,
07:04
now they go into second gear.
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zdaj gredo pa v drugo prestavo.
07:06
But even this
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Ampak celo to
07:08
is not a fair representation of Africa,
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ni pravičen prikaz Afrike,
07:10
because it's an average,
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ker je povprečje,
07:12
it's an average speed of reduction in Africa.
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povprečna hitrost zmanjšanja v Afriki.
07:14
And look here when I take you into my bubble graphs.
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In poglejte tu, ko vas peljem k mojim prikazom z mehurčki.
07:17
Still here,
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Še zmeraj imamo
07:19
child death per 1,000 on that axis.
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smrti otrok na tisoč prebivalcev na tej osi.
07:22
Here we have [the] year.
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Tu imamo leta.
07:24
And I'm now giving you a wider picture than the MDG.
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Zdaj vam dajem širšo sliko kot MDG.
07:27
I start 50 years ago
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Začnem 50 let nazaj
07:29
when Africa celebrated independence in most countries.
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ko je Afrika praznovala samostojnost v večini držav.
07:32
I give you Congo, which was high,
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kažem vam Kongo, ki je visoko,
07:34
Ghana -- lower. And Kenya -- even lower.
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Gana--nižje. In Kenija--še nižje.
07:36
And what has happened over the years since then? Here we go.
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In kaj se je zgodilo skozi leta od takrat? Gremo.
07:39
You can see, with independence, literacy improved
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Kot vidite, s samostojnostjo, se je izboljšala pismenost
07:42
and vaccinations started, smallpox was eradicated,
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in začelo se je cepljenje, koze so izbrisane,
07:45
hygiene was improved, and things got better.
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higiena se je izboljšala in stvari so se izboljšale.
07:48
But then, in the '80s, watch out here.
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Ampak potem, v osemdesetih, pazite zdaj.
07:50
Congo got into civil war,
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v Kongu se je začela državljanska vojna,
07:52
and they leveled off here.
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in ustalili so se tu.
07:54
Ghana got very ahead, fast.
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Ghana jih je prehitela, zelo hitro.
07:56
This was the backlash in Kenya, and Ghana bypassed,
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To je bil zaostanek v Keniji, in Gana jih je prehitela,
07:59
but then Kenya and Ghana go down together --
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Ampak potem se Kenija in Gana spustita skupaj--
08:01
still a standstill in Congo.
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Kongo še zmeraj stoji.
08:03
That's where we are today.
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Tu smo danes.
08:05
You can see it doesn't make sense
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Vidite da nima smisla
08:08
to make an average of this zero improvement
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da naredimo povprečje iz nič napredka
08:11
and this very fast improvement.
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in tega zelo hitrega napredka.
08:15
Time has come
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Prišel je čas
08:17
to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa as one place.
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da nehamo razmišljato o Podsaharski Afriki kot enoti.
08:21
Their countries are so different,
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Te države so tako različne,
08:24
and they merit to be recognized in the same way,
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in zaslužijo si, da jih kot take tudi prepoznamo,
08:27
as we don't talk about Europe as one place.
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tako kot ne govorimo o Evropi kot o enem kraju.
08:29
I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden are very different --
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Lahko vam povem da je gospodarstvo Grčije in Švedske zelo različno--
08:32
everyone knows that.
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vsi to vedo.
08:34
And they are judged, each country, on how they are doing.
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In vsake državo posebej ocenimo, kako ji gre.
08:37
So let me show the wider picture.
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Naj vam pokažem širšo sliko.
08:40
My country, Sweden:
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Moja država, Švedska:
08:43
1800, we were up there.
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1800, smo tu gor.
08:46
What a strange personality disorder we must have,
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Kakšno čudno motnjo osebnosti moramo imeti,
08:49
counting the children so meticulously in spite of a high child death rate.
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da štejemo otroke tako skrbno kljub tako visoki umrljivosti otrok.
08:52
It's very strange. It's sort of embarrassing.
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Zelo je čudno. Nekako sramotno je.
08:55
But we had that habit in Sweden, you know,
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Ampak imeli smo to navado na Švedskem, veste,
08:57
that we counted all the child deaths,
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da smo prešteli vse smrti otrok,
08:59
even if we didn't do anything about it.
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čeprav nismo glede tega storili nič.
09:01
And then, you see, these were famine years.
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In potem, vidite, to so bila leta lakote.
09:03
These were bad years, and people got fed up with Sweden.
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To so bila slaba leta, in ljudje so imeli Švedske dovolj.
09:05
My ancestors moved to the United States.
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Moji predniki so se preselili v Združene države.
09:08
And eventually, soon they started to get better and better here.
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In sčasoma, kmalu so se stvari izboljšale.
09:11
And here we got better education, and we got health service,
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In tu imamo boljšo izobrazbo, zdravstveno oskrbo,
09:14
and child mortality came down.
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in umrljivost otrok se je zmanjšala.
09:16
We never had a war; Sweden was in peace all this time.
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Nikoli nismo imeli vojne, Švedska je bila v miru ves ta čas.
09:19
But look, the rate of lowering
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Ampak poglejte, hitrost zniževanja
09:21
in Sweden
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na Švedskem
09:23
was not fast.
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ni bila hitra.
09:25
Sweden achieved a low child mortality
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Švedska je dosegla nizko umrljivost otrok
09:28
because we started early.
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ker smo zgodaj začeli.
09:31
We had primary school actually
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Osnovno šolo smo
09:33
started in 1842.
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dobili leta 1842.
09:35
And then you get that wonderful effect
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In potem dobiš ta čudoviti učinek
09:37
when we got female literacy
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ko smo dobili pismene ženske
09:39
one generation later.
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eno generacijo kasneje.
09:41
You have to realize that the investments we do in progress
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Zavedati se morate da so te investicije
09:44
are long-term investments.
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dolgoročne investicije.
09:46
It's not about just five years --
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Ne gre za samo 5 let--
09:48
it's long-term investments.
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to so dolgoročne investicije.
09:50
And Sweden never reached [the] Millennium Development Goal rate,
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In Švedska ni nikoli dosegla Razvojnega cilja tisočletja,
09:53
3.1 percent when I calculated.
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3.1 procent ko sem to izračunal.
09:55
So we are off track -- that's what Sweden is.
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Zato smo izven poti--to je Švedska.
09:58
But you don't talk about it so much.
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Ampak o tem se ne govori veliko.
10:00
We want others to be better than we were, and indeed, others have been better.
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Hočemo, da bi bili drugi boljši od nas, in res, drugi so bili boljši.
10:03
Let me show you Thailand,
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Naj vam pokažem Tajsko,
10:05
see what a success story, Thailand from the 1960s --
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poglejte kakšna zgodba o uspehu, Tajska iz leta 1960--
10:07
how they went down here
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kako so prišli semdol
10:09
and reached almost the same child mortality levels as Sweden.
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in dosegli skoraj enako umrljivost otrok kot Švedska.
10:12
And I'll give you another story -- Egypt,
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Še eno zgodbo vam pokažem--Egipt,
10:15
the most hidden, glorious success in public health.
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najbolj skrit, veličasten uspeh v javnem zdravju.
10:18
Egypt was up here in 1960,
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Egipt je bil tu leta 1960,
10:20
higher than Congo.
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višje kot Kongo.
10:22
The Nile Delta was a misery for children
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Delta Nila je bila beda za otroke
10:25
with diarrheal disease
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z diarejo
10:27
and malaria and a lot of problems.
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in malarijo in veliko problemi.
10:29
And then they got the Aswan Dam. They got electricity in their homes,
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Potem so dobili Asuanski jez. Dobili so elektriko v domovih,
10:32
they increased education
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povečali so izobrazbo
10:34
and they got primary health care.
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in dobili primarno zdravstveno oskrbo.
10:36
And down they went, you know.
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In šli so dol, veste.
10:38
And they got safer water, they eradicated malaria.
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In dobili so varnejšo vodo in izbrisali malarijo.
10:41
And isn't it a success story.
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Kaj ni to zgodba o uspehu.
10:43
Millennium Development Goal rates for child mortality
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Milenijski razvojni cilj za umrljivost otrok
10:46
is fully possible.
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je popolnoma mogoč.
10:48
And the good thing is
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In dobra stvar je,
10:50
that Ghana today is going with the same rate
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da Gana danes napreduje z istjo hitrostjo,
10:52
as Egypt did at its fastest.
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kot Egipt v najhitrejših časih.
10:55
Kenya is now speeding up.
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Kenija je sedaj pospešila.
10:57
Here we have a problem.
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Tu imamo problem.
10:59
We have a severe problem in countries which are at a standstill.
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Imamo resen problem v državah ki se ne premaknejo.
11:03
Now, let me now bring you to a wider picture,
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Naj vam sedaj pokažem širšo sliko,
11:06
a wider picture of child mortality.
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širšo sliko umrljivosti otrok.
11:08
I'm going to show you the relationship
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Pokazal vam bom povezavo
11:10
between child mortality on this axis here --
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med umrljivostjo otrok na tej osi tu--
11:13
this axis here is child mortality --
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ta os tu je umrljivost otrok--
11:16
and here I have the family size.
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in tu imam velikost družine.
11:19
The relationship between child mortality and family size.
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Povezava med umrljivostjo otrok in velikostjo družine.
11:21
One, two, three, four children per woman:
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En, dva trije otroci na žensko:
11:23
six, seven, eight children per woman.
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šest, sedem, osem otrok na žensko.
11:25
This is, once again, 1960 --
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To je, spet, leto 1960--
11:27
50 years ago.
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50 let nazaj.
11:29
Each bubble is a country --
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Vsak mehurček je država--
11:31
the color, you can see, a continent.
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Barva, kot vidite, je kontinent.
11:33
The dark blue here is sub-Saharan Africa.
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Temno modra tu je Podsaharska Afrika.
11:35
And the size of the bubble is the population.
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In velikost mehurčka je populacija.
11:39
And these are
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In to so
11:41
the so-called "developing" countries.
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tako imenovane države "v razvoju".
11:43
They had high, or very high, child mortality
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Imele so visoko, ali pa zelo visoko, umrljivost otrok
11:46
and family size, six to eight.
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in velikost družine, šest do osem.
11:49
And the ones over there,
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In te tu,
11:51
they were so-called Western countries.
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to so bilo tako imenovane Zahodne države.
11:53
They had low child mortality
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Imele so nizko umrljivost otrok
11:55
and small families.
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in majhne družine.
11:57
What has happened?
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Kaj se je zgodilo?
11:59
What I want you [to do] now is to see with your own eyes
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Sedaj hočem da vidite to na lastne oči,
12:02
the relation between fall in child mortality
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povezavo med padcem umrljivosti otrok
12:05
and decrease in family size.
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in zmanjšano velikostjo družine.
12:08
I just want not to have any room for doubt --
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Hočem samo, da ni nič prostora za dvom--
12:10
you have to see that for yourself.
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sami morate videti.
12:12
This is what happened. Now I start the world.
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To se je zgodilo. Sedaj zaženem svet.
12:15
Here we come down with the eradication of
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Tukaj se znižamo z izkoreninjenjem
12:17
smallpox, better education,
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koz, boljšo izobrazbo,
12:19
health service.
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zdravstveno oskrbo.
12:21
It got down there -- China comes into the Western box here.
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Do sem dol smo prišli-- Kitajska pride v zahodni kvadratek tu.
12:24
And here Brazil is in the Western Box.
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in Brazilija pride v zahodni kvadratek.
12:26
India is approaching. The first African countries coming into the Western box,
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India se približuje. prve afriške države prihajajo v zahodni kvadratek,
12:29
and we get a lot a new neighbors.
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in dobimo veliko novih sosedov.
12:31
Welcome to a decent life.
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Dobrodošli v spodobnem življenju.
12:33
Come on. We want everyone down there.
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Dajmo. Hočemo vse tu spodaj.
12:35
This is the vision we have, isn't it.
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To je naša vizija, kajne.
12:37
And look now, the first African countries here are coming in.
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In poglejte zdaj, prve afriške države prihajajo sem.
12:40
There we are today.
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Tu smo danes.
12:43
There is no such thing
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Ne obstaja
12:45
as a "Western world" and "developing world."
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"Zahodni svet" in "svet v razvoju".
12:47
This is the report from [the] U.N.,
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To je poročilo Z.N.,
12:49
which came out on Friday.
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ki je bilo izdano v petek.
12:51
It's very good -- "Levels and Trends in Child Mortality" --
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Zelo je dobro--"Stopnje in trendi v umrljivosti otrok"-
12:54
except this page.
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razen te strani.
12:56
This page is very bad;
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Ta stran je zelo slaba;
12:58
it's a categorization of countries.
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gre za kategorizacijo držav.
13:01
It labels "developing countries," -- I can read from the list here --
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Označuje "države v razvoju"--lahko vam preberem seznam tu--
13:04
developing countries: Republic of Korea -- South Korea.
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države v razvoju:Korejska republika--Južna Koreja.
13:07
Huh?
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Kaj?
13:09
They get Samsung, how can they be [a] developing country?
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Oni imajo Samsung, kako so lahko država v razvoju?
13:12
They have here Singapore.
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Tu je Singapur.
13:14
They have the lowest child mortality in the world, Singapore.
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Najnižjo umrljivost na svetu imajo v Singapurju.
13:16
They bypassed Sweden five years ago,
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Prehiteli so Švedsko pred petimi leti,
13:18
and they are labeled a developing country.
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in so označeni kot država v razvoju.
13:20
They have here Qatar.
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Tu je Katar.
13:22
It's the richest country in the world with Al Jazeera.
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To je najbogatejša država na svetu, z Al Jazeero.
13:24
How the heck could they be [a] developing country?
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Kako za hudiča so lahko država v razvoju?
13:26
This is crap.
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To je sranje.
13:28
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
13:31
The rest here is good -- the rest is good.
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ostalo tu je dobro--ostalo je dobro.
13:33
We have to have a modern concept,
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Imeti moramo moderen koncept
13:35
which fits to the data.
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ki se ujema s podatki.
13:37
And we have to realize
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In zavedati se moramo
13:39
that we are all going to into this, down to here.
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da gremo vsi sem dol.
13:42
What is the importance now with the relations here.
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Kaj je sedaj pomembno pri povezavah tu.
13:45
Look -- even if we look in Africa --
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poglejte--celo če pogledamo Afriko--
13:47
these are the African countries.
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to so afriške države.
13:49
You can clearly see the relation with falling child mortality
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Tu lahko jasno vidite povezavo s padajočo umrljivostjo otrok
13:52
and decreasing family size,
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in zmanjševanjem velikosti družine,
13:54
even within Africa.
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celo v Afriki.
13:56
It's very clear that this is what happens.
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Zelo jasno je, da se to zgodi.
13:58
And a very important piece of research came out on Friday
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in zelo pomemben del raziskave je bil izdan v petek
14:01
from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle
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iz Inštituta za Merjenje zdravja in ocenjevanje v Seattlu
14:05
showing that almost 50 percent
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ki kaže da skoraj 50 procentov
14:07
of the fall in child mortality
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padca umrljivosti otrok
14:09
can be attributed to female education.
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lahko pripišemo izobrazbi žensk.
14:12
That is, when we get girls in school,
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To je, ko gredo deklice v šolo,
14:15
we'll get an impact 15 to 20 years later,
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dobimo vpliv 15 do 20 let kasneje,
14:17
which is a secular trend which is very strong.
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to je sekularni trend, ki je zelo močan.
14:20
That's why we must have that long-term perspective,
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zato moramo imeti dolgoročno perspektivo,
14:23
but we must measure the impact
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ampak moramo meriti vpliv
14:25
over 10-year periods.
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v desetletnih obdobjih.
14:27
It's fully possible
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Popolnoma mogoče je,
14:29
to get child mortality down in all of these countries
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da zmanjšamo umrljivost trok v teh državah
14:31
and to get them down in the corner
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in jih spravimo dol v ta kot,
14:33
where we all would like to live together.
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kjer bi vsi radi živeli skupaj.
14:37
And of course, lowering child mortality
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In seveda, zmanjševanje umrljivosti otrok
14:40
is a matter of utmost importance
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je zelo pomembno
14:43
from humanitarian aspects.
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iz humantarnega vidika.
14:45
It's a decent life for children,
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Pomeni spodobno življenje za otroke,
14:47
we are talking about.
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o tem govorimo.
14:49
But it is also a strategic investment
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Prav tako pa je to strateška investicija
14:52
in the future of all mankind,
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v prihodnost človeštva,
14:54
because it's about the environment.
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ker zadeva okolje.
14:57
We will not be able to manage the environment
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Ne bomo sposobni obvladati okolja
14:59
and avoid the terrible climate crisis
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in se izogniti grozljivi klimatski krizi
15:01
if we don't stabilize the world population.
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če ne uravnovesimo svetovne populacije.
15:03
Let's be clear about that.
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Bodimo jasni glede tega.
15:05
And the way to do that,
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In to lahko storimo tako,
15:07
that is to get child mortality down, get access to family planning
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da zmanjšamo umrljivost otrok, omogočimo dostop do načrtovanja družine
15:10
and behind that drive female education.
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in za vsem tem omogočimo izobrazbo žensk.
15:13
And that is fully possible. Let's do it.
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In to je popolnoma mogoče. Storimo to.
15:15
Thank you very much.
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Najlepša hvala.
15:17
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
O tej spletni strani

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