Hans Rosling: The good news of the decade?

169,348 views ・ 2010-10-07

TED


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譯者: Marie Wu 審譯者: Geoff Chen
00:15
We are here today
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今天我來到這裡,
00:17
because [the] United Nations
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是因為聯合國
00:19
have defined goals
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為國家的發展
00:21
for the progress of countries.
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定了幾個目標,
00:23
They're called Millennium Development Goals.
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他們稱之為「千禧發展目標」。
00:26
And the reason I really like these goals
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我喜歡這些目標的原因是,
00:29
is that there are eight of them.
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他們分成八個目標。
00:32
And by specifying eight different goals,
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這八個不同目標是由聯合國所訂定的,
00:34
the United Nations has said
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他們認為要讓一個國家
00:36
that there are so many things needed
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為人民創造更好的生活,
00:38
to change in a country
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有太多事情
00:40
in order to get the good life for people.
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是等著我們去做的。
00:42
Look here -- you have to end poverty,
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看看這裡,我們應該終止貧窮、
00:44
education, gender,
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發展教育、性別平等、
00:46
child and maternal health,
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重視孩童與母親的健康、
00:48
control infections, protect the environment
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控制傳染病、保護環境、
00:51
and get the good global links between nations
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讓世界各國維持良好關係,
00:53
in every aspect
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這些目標包涵了每一個面向,
00:55
from aid to trade.
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從援助到貿易都有。
00:58
There's a second reason I like these development goals,
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我喜歡這幾個發展目標還有另一個原因,
01:01
and that is because each and every one is measured.
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就是每一個目標都可以加以衡量。
01:04
Take child mortality;
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舉孩童死亡率為例,
01:07
the aim here is to reduce child mortality
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目標是要在1990年到2050年內,
01:09
by two-thirds,
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降低孩童死亡率
01:11
from 1990 to 2015.
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達三分之二,
01:14
That's a four percent reduction per year --
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也就是每年要下降4%,
01:18
and this, with measuring.
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這是可以衡量的。
01:20
That's what makes the difference
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這就是為什麼政治語言
01:22
between political talking like this
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和實際上為人民創造
01:24
and really going for the important thing,
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更好的生活,
01:26
a better life for people.
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會有那麼大的差別。
01:29
And what I'm so happy about with this
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我之所以很高興,
01:31
is that we have already documented
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是因為我們終於看到,
01:33
that there are many countries
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在亞洲、中東、
01:35
in Asia, in the Middle East,
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拉丁美洲
01:37
in Latin America and East Europe
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和東歐的許多國家裡,
01:40
that [are] reducing with this rate.
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這個比率確實在下降。
01:42
And even mighty Brazil is going down with five percent per year,
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即使偉大的巴西每年的孩童死亡率也下降了5%,
01:45
and Turkey with seven percent per year.
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土耳其則下降了7%,
01:47
So there's good news.
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這真是好消息。
01:49
But then I hear people saying, "There is no progress in Africa.
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但我聽到有人說:「非洲的情況並沒有改善啊...
01:52
And there's not even statistics on Africa
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我們連非洲的統計數據都看不到,
01:54
to know what is happening."
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要怎麼知道發生了什麼事?」
01:56
I'll prove them wrong on both points.
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我要來證明這些人錯了。
01:59
Come with me to the wonderful world of statistics.
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和我一起來看看這些美妙的統計數據,
02:02
I bring you to the webpage, ChildMortality.org,
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你可以上這個網頁:ChildMortality.org,
02:05
where you can take deaths in children
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上面有每一個國家
02:07
below five years of age for all countries --
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年齡小於五歲的孩童死亡數字,
02:10
it's done by U.N. specialists.
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這是由聯合國的專家所統計出來的,
02:12
And I will take Kenya as an example.
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我就舉肯亞為例子好了。
02:14
Here you see the data.
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你看這個資料,
02:16
Don't panic -- don't panic now, I'll help you through this.
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先別緊張,先別緊張,我來告訴你們怎麼看這些數據。
02:19
It looks nasty, like in college
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這看起來很恐怖,就像你在大學時
02:21
when you didn't like statistics.
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最討厭上的統計課一樣,
02:23
But first thing, when you see dots like this,
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但是,當你看到這些點點的時候,
02:25
you have to ask yourself:
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你得先問你自己一個問題:
02:27
from where do the data come?
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這些數據是從哪裡來的?
02:29
What is the origin of the data?
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原始數據在哪裡?
02:31
Is it so that in Kenya,
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在肯亞有沒有
02:33
there are doctors and other specialists
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醫生或其他專業人員,
02:35
who write the death certificate at the death of the child
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在孩童死去的時候,填寫一張死亡證明,
02:37
and it's sent to the statistical office?
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然後送到統計局去?
02:39
No -- low-income countries like Kenya
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沒有,像肯亞這種低收入國家
02:42
still don't have that level of organization.
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還沒有這種層級的機構組織,
02:45
It exists, but it's not complete
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是有這種組織沒錯,但是缺乏完整的運作功能,
02:47
because so many deaths occur in the home
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因為有許多孩童是在
02:50
with the family,
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家裡死去,
02:52
and it's not registered.
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沒有做任何登記。
02:54
What we rely on is not an incomplete system.
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我們不能信任這種不完整的系統,
02:56
We have interviews, we have surveys.
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我們只能進行訪談,深入調查。
02:59
And this is highly professional
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這是一位極為專業的
03:01
female interviewers
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女性訪問員,
03:03
who sit down for one hour with a woman
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她和一位女士坐在一起一個小時,
03:05
and ask her about [her] birth history.
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詢問對方的生產資料,
03:07
How many children did you have?
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你生了幾個小孩?
03:09
Are they alive?
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全都活著嗎?
03:11
If they died, at what age and what year?
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死掉的孩子是在哪一年、幾歲的時候死去?
03:14
And then this is done in a representative sample
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這些會成為那個國家裡
03:16
of thousands of women in the country
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成千上萬婦女的代表性樣本,
03:19
and put together in what used to be called
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這些樣本會被蒐集起來,
03:21
a demographic health survey report.
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放進人口健康調查的報告裡。
03:24
But these surveys are costly,
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但這種調查需要很多經費,
03:26
so they can only be done [in] three- to five-year intervals.
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所以只能每隔三到五年才能做一次,
03:29
But they have good quality.
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但調查的品質很好,
03:31
So this is a limitation.
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只是經費有些限制。
03:33
And all these colored lines here are results;
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這些有顏色的線就是調查結果,
03:36
each color is one survey.
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每一種顏色代表每一次的調查。
03:38
But that's too complicated for today, so I'll simplify it for you,
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但這樣看起來太複雜了,所以我想要簡化一點,
03:41
and I give you one average point for each survey.
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我就把每一次調查的平均值點出來好了,
03:44
This was 1977, 1988,
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這是1977年、1988年、
03:47
1992, '97
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1992年、1997年
03:49
and 2002.
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和2002年。
03:52
And when the experts in the U.N.
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當聯合國的專家們
03:54
have got these surveys in place in their database,
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把這些數據放進資料庫,
03:57
then they use advanced mathematical formulas
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他們就會用先進的數學公式
04:00
to produce a trend line, and the trend line looks like this.
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來畫出一條趨勢線,像是這一條趨勢線,
04:03
See here -- it's the best fit they can get of this point.
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看這裡,這是他們畫出來的線,
04:06
But watch out --
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請你注意看,
04:08
they continue the line
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他們還把線
04:10
beyond the last point
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往後延伸了,
04:12
out into nothing.
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延伸到未來,
04:14
And they estimated that in 2008,
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他們估計,在2008年,
04:17
Kenya had per child mortality of 128.
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肯亞孩童的死亡率是128。
04:20
And I was sad,
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我很難過,
04:22
because we could see
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因為我們本來以為,
04:24
this reversal in Kenya
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在90年代肯亞的
04:26
with an increased child mortality in the 90s.
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孩童死亡率達到高峰後,應該會下降,
04:29
It was so tragic.
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但沒有,真的很慘。
04:31
But in June, I got a mail in my inbox
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但我在六月的時候收到一封電子郵件,
04:34
from Demographic Health Surveys,
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是從人口健康調查局送出的郵件,
04:36
and it showed good news from Kenya.
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我看到了來自肯亞的好消息。
04:38
I was so happy.
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我很高興,
04:40
This was the estimate of the new survey.
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這是新調查做出的估計,
04:43
Then it just took another three months
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聯合國又花了三個月的時間,
04:45
for [the] U.N. to get it into their server,
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把資料放進電腦裡,
04:47
and on Friday we got the new trend line --
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星期五我們才收到新畫出來的趨勢線,
04:50
it was down here.
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從這裡開始下降了,
04:52
Isn't it nice -- isn't it nice, yeah?
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很棒吧?這真的很棒,不是嗎?
04:54
I was actually, on Friday, sitting in front of my computer,
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星期五的時候,我一整個上午都坐在電腦前面,
04:57
and I saw the death rate fall
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看著死亡率下降,
04:59
from 128 to 84 just that morning.
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從128下降到84,
05:02
So we celebrated.
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我們高興地慶祝了起來。
05:04
But now, when you have this trend line,
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但是,當你看到這條趨勢線的時候,
05:06
how do we measure progress?
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要怎麼樣來衡量進步程度?
05:08
I'm going into some details here,
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我現在來仔細講解
05:10
because [the] U.N. do it like this.
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聯合國的作法,
05:12
They start [in] 1990 -- they measure to 2009.
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他們是從1990年開始,一直衡量到2009年,
05:15
They say, "0.9 percent, no progress."
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他們發現:「只有0.9%,沒有進步。」
05:18
That's unfair.
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這不合理,
05:20
As a professor, I think I have the right to propose something differently.
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身為一位教授,我認為我有權利提出不同的見解,
05:23
I would say, at least do this --
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我會說,至少要做這個分析,
05:25
10 years is enough to follow the trend.
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十年就足以看出趨勢了,
05:27
It's two surveys, and you can see what's happening now.
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十年裡會有二次調查,你就可以看出實際的狀況,
05:30
They have 2.4 percent.
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其實是2.4%。
05:32
Had I been in the Ministry of Health in Kenya,
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要是我是肯亞的衛生署長,
05:34
I may have joined these two points.
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我就會把這二個點列入考慮。
05:37
So what I'm telling you
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我要告訴各位的是,
05:39
is that we know the child mortality.
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我們已經知道孩童的死亡率,
05:41
We have a decent trend.
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我們畫得出一條趨勢線,
05:43
It's coming into some tricky things then
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但我們在衡量這些千禧發展目標時,
05:45
when we are measuring MDGs.
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有些陷阱是必須注意的,
05:47
And the reason here for Africa is especially important,
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尤其是對非洲來說格外重要,
05:50
because '90s was a bad decade,
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因為90年代是很不好的十年,
05:52
not only in Kenya, but across Africa.
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不只是肯亞,整個非洲都很不好。
05:55
The HIV epidemic peaked.
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HIV病毒的擴散達到高峰;
05:57
There was resistance for the old malaria drugs, until we got the new drugs.
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瘧疾已對舊的藥物產生抗藥性,直到我們開發出新藥才抑制下來;
06:00
We got, later, the mosquito netting.
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我們後來也收到許多蚊帳;
06:02
And there was socio-economic problems,
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還有一些社會經濟的問題,
06:04
which are now being solved at a much better scale.
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現在才改善到較好的狀況。
06:07
So look at the average here --
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現在來看看平均數,
06:09
this is the average for all of sub-Saharan Africa.
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這是撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲的平均數,
06:11
And [the] U.N. says
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聯合國說
06:13
it's a reduction with 1.8 percent.
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下降了1.8%。
06:16
Now this sounds a little theoretical,
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我現在要講的會讓你以為很理論,
06:18
but it's not so theoretical.
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但是並不會,
06:20
You know, these economists,
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這些經濟學家,
06:22
they love money, they want more and more of it, they want it to grow.
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他們愛錢,他們希望錢愈多愈好,他們喜歡看到成長,
06:25
So they calculate the percent annual growth rate of [the] economy.
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所以他們老是在計算每年的經濟成長率;
06:28
We in public health, we hate child death,
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但我們這種公共衛生領域的人,我們討厭孩童死亡,
06:31
so we want less and less and less of child deaths.
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我們希望孩童死亡人數愈少愈好,
06:33
So we calculate the percent reduction per year,
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所以我們會計算每年的下降比率,
06:35
but it's sort of the same percentage.
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但其實這二種都是同一種比率。
06:37
If your economy grows with four percent,
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如果經濟成長了4%,
06:39
you ought to reduce child mortality four percent;
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孩童死亡率應該也會下降4%才對,
06:41
if it's used well and people are really involved
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因為如果經濟成長了,
06:44
and can get the use of the resources in the way they want it.
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人們就會有足夠的資源去做他們想做的事。
06:47
So is this fair now to measure this over 19 years?
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那你覺得用19年的期間來衡量這個指標合理嗎?
06:50
An economist would never do that.
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經濟學家就不會這麼做。
06:53
I have just divided it into two periods.
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我把整個期間分成二個期間來看,
06:55
In the 90s, only 1.2 percent,
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在1990年代,只有1.2%,
06:58
only 1.2 percent.
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只有1.2%。
07:00
Whereas now, second gear --
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現在則換到二檔--
07:02
it's like Africa had first gear,
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過去的非洲是在一檔,
07:04
now they go into second gear.
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現在換到了二檔。
07:06
But even this
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但即使如此,
07:08
is not a fair representation of Africa,
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還是不能合理代表非洲的狀況,
07:10
because it's an average,
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因為我們用的是平均數,
07:12
it's an average speed of reduction in Africa.
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也就是說,這是非洲平均的下降速度。
07:14
And look here when I take you into my bubble graphs.
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我讓你們看看我畫的圖表,
07:17
Still here,
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和前面一樣,
07:19
child death per 1,000 on that axis.
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這個軸代表的是每千個孩童死亡的人數,
07:22
Here we have [the] year.
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這邊則代表年份。
07:24
And I'm now giving you a wider picture than the MDG.
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我要讓你們看看比千禧發展目標更宏觀的圖表,
07:27
I start 50 years ago
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我從50年前開始記錄,
07:29
when Africa celebrated independence in most countries.
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那時非洲大部分的國家都才剛剛獨立,
07:32
I give you Congo, which was high,
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例如剛果,死亡率很高,
07:34
Ghana -- lower. And Kenya -- even lower.
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迦納比較低,肯亞更低一點。
07:36
And what has happened over the years since then? Here we go.
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那以後又發生了什麼事?我們來看看,
07:39
You can see, with independence, literacy improved
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因為國家獨立了,人民的讀寫能力跟著提升;
07:42
and vaccinations started, smallpox was eradicated,
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人民接種牛痘疫苗,天花逐漸絕跡;
07:45
hygiene was improved, and things got better.
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衛生環境也改善了,每一件事都變得更好。
07:48
But then, in the '80s, watch out here.
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但我們看看這裡,1980年代的時候,
07:50
Congo got into civil war,
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剛果發生了內戰,
07:52
and they leveled off here.
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所以他們就維持在這個水平線上,
07:54
Ghana got very ahead, fast.
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迦納則持續下降,
07:56
This was the backlash in Kenya, and Ghana bypassed,
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肯亞稍微往上升一點,然後迦納超越肯亞,
07:59
but then Kenya and Ghana go down together --
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接著肯亞和迦納就一起往下降,
08:01
still a standstill in Congo.
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剛果還是維持在那個水平線上。
08:03
That's where we are today.
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到今天就是這副模樣。
08:05
You can see it doesn't make sense
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你們看看,把那些沒有改善的國家
08:08
to make an average of this zero improvement
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和改善非常快的國家,放在一起平均,
08:11
and this very fast improvement.
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是完全沒有道理的。
08:15
Time has come
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現在是該停止
08:17
to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa as one place.
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把撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲視為一個整合區域的時候了,
08:21
Their countries are so different,
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那裡每個國家都不一樣,
08:24
and they merit to be recognized in the same way,
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他們不應該再被視為一個區域,
08:27
as we don't talk about Europe as one place.
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就像我們不會以為歐洲是一個區域一樣。
08:29
I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden are very different --
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我可以告訴各位,希臘和瑞典的經濟是完全不同的,
08:32
everyone knows that.
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大家都知道這一點,
08:34
And they are judged, each country, on how they are doing.
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所以每一個國家的表現,都是被單獨評估的。
08:37
So let me show the wider picture.
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所以我們來看看宏觀的圖表,
08:40
My country, Sweden:
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我的國家,瑞典:
08:43
1800, we were up there.
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1800年的時候,我們在這上面,
08:46
What a strange personality disorder we must have,
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我們國家的個性真的很奇怪,
08:49
counting the children so meticulously in spite of a high child death rate.
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儘管我們精心統計小孩的出生數字,卻還有這麼高的孩童死亡率,
08:52
It's very strange. It's sort of embarrassing.
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這真的很奇怪,我都有點不好意思了。
08:55
But we had that habit in Sweden, you know,
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但我們瑞典人就是有這種習慣,
08:57
that we counted all the child deaths,
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我們會計算孩童的死亡率,
08:59
even if we didn't do anything about it.
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但卻也沒做什麼事來改善這個狀況。
09:01
And then, you see, these were famine years.
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接下來,你們看看,這幾年鬧饑荒,
09:03
These were bad years, and people got fed up with Sweden.
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生活不好過,人們追求自由,
09:05
My ancestors moved to the United States.
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所以我的祖先搬到了美國。
09:08
And eventually, soon they started to get better and better here.
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最後,很快地,死亡率下降得愈來愈快,
09:11
And here we got better education, and we got health service,
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到了這裡,我們有更好的教育制度、醫療保健,
09:14
and child mortality came down.
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孩童死亡率就下降到這裡。
09:16
We never had a war; Sweden was in peace all this time.
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瑞典從來沒有發生過戰爭,一直都處於和平狀態,
09:19
But look, the rate of lowering
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但是你看,瑞典孩童死亡率
09:21
in Sweden
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下降的速度
09:23
was not fast.
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並沒有那麼快,
09:25
Sweden achieved a low child mortality
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瑞典之所以會讓孩童死亡率降到這麼低,
09:28
because we started early.
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只是因為我們起步得很早。
09:31
We had primary school actually
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我們的小學教育
09:33
started in 1842.
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是在1842年開始的,
09:35
And then you get that wonderful effect
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所以在一個世代以後,
09:37
when we got female literacy
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我們才看到婦女讀寫能力
09:39
one generation later.
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大幅度提升所帶來的好處。
09:41
You have to realize that the investments we do in progress
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各位必須瞭解,為國家進步發展而投入的投資,
09:44
are long-term investments.
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將是一段漫長的投資,
09:46
It's not about just five years --
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不是短短五年的投資,
09:48
it's long-term investments.
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而是更長遠的投資。
09:50
And Sweden never reached [the] Millennium Development Goal rate,
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瑞典從來沒有達到千禧發展目標所要求的水準,
09:53
3.1 percent when I calculated.
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我計算了一下,只有3.1%。
09:55
So we are off track -- that's what Sweden is.
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所以我們不合格,哈!這就是瑞典。
09:58
But you don't talk about it so much.
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不過不要告訴別人。
10:00
We want others to be better than we were, and indeed, others have been better.
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我們希望其他國家能有更好的表現,而其他國家也真的有更好的表現,
10:03
Let me show you Thailand,
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我們來看看泰國,
10:05
see what a success story, Thailand from the 1960s --
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看看他們成功的故事,泰國從1960年代
10:07
how they went down here
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下降到這裡,
10:09
and reached almost the same child mortality levels as Sweden.
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他們的孩童死亡率幾乎和瑞典一樣。
10:12
And I'll give you another story -- Egypt,
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還有另一個例子,埃及,
10:15
the most hidden, glorious success in public health.
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他們在公衛領域的成就是最突出的,但也最不為人知。
10:18
Egypt was up here in 1960,
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埃及在1960年代的時候是在這上面,
10:20
higher than Congo.
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比剛果還要高,
10:22
The Nile Delta was a misery for children
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尼羅河三角洲附近的孩童,
10:25
with diarrheal disease
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深受腹瀉、瘧疾
10:27
and malaria and a lot of problems.
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和其他疾病困擾。
10:29
And then they got the Aswan Dam. They got electricity in their homes,
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後來他們建了亞斯望水庫,每個人家裡都有電力,
10:32
they increased education
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教育水準提升,
10:34
and they got primary health care.
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也有了基礎的醫療體系,
10:36
And down they went, you know.
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所以死亡率就下降了。
10:38
And they got safer water, they eradicated malaria.
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他們的飲用水更為清潔,瘧疾也絕跡了,
10:41
And isn't it a success story.
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這真的是一個成功的典範,
10:43
Millennium Development Goal rates for child mortality
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讓我們看到千禧發展目標所訂的孩童死亡率,
10:46
is fully possible.
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是完全有可能達到的。
10:48
And the good thing is
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好消息是,
10:50
that Ghana today is going with the same rate
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迦納現在也以和埃及一樣快的速度
10:52
as Egypt did at its fastest.
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降低孩童的死亡率;
10:55
Kenya is now speeding up.
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肯亞正在加速追趕。
10:57
Here we have a problem.
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但我們有個問題,
10:59
We have a severe problem in countries which are at a standstill.
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有些國家的死亡率仍維持在相同的水準,這是嚴重的問題。
11:03
Now, let me now bring you to a wider picture,
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現在,我讓各位看看一張更宏觀的圖表,
11:06
a wider picture of child mortality.
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有關孩童死亡率的圖表,
11:08
I'm going to show you the relationship
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我要讓各位知道,在這個軸上的
11:10
between child mortality on this axis here --
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孩童死亡率,
11:13
this axis here is child mortality --
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這個軸是孩童死亡率,
11:16
and here I have the family size.
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和家庭人數多寡之間的關係,
11:19
The relationship between child mortality and family size.
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也就是孩童死亡率和家中小孩數之間的關係。
11:21
One, two, three, four children per woman:
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一、二、三、四,這是每位婦女所生的小孩數,
11:23
six, seven, eight children per woman.
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還有人生了六、七、八個小孩。
11:25
This is, once again, 1960 --
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我們再來看看1960年代,
11:27
50 years ago.
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也就是50年前,
11:29
Each bubble is a country --
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每一個圓點代表一個國家,
11:31
the color, you can see, a continent.
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顏色則代表該國所處的大陸,
11:33
The dark blue here is sub-Saharan Africa.
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像是深藍色就代表撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲,
11:35
And the size of the bubble is the population.
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圓點的大小代表該國的人口數。
11:39
And these are
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這些是
11:41
the so-called "developing" countries.
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大家眼中的「開發中國家」,
11:43
They had high, or very high, child mortality
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他們的孩童死亡率非常高,
11:46
and family size, six to eight.
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家中小孩有六到八個。
11:49
And the ones over there,
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在這裡的這些國家,
11:51
they were so-called Western countries.
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則是一般人眼中的西方國家,
11:53
They had low child mortality
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孩童死亡率很低,
11:55
and small families.
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小孩人數也很少。
11:57
What has happened?
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這是怎麼一回事?
11:59
What I want you [to do] now is to see with your own eyes
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我要你們親眼看看
12:02
the relation between fall in child mortality
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孩童死亡率的下降,
12:05
and decrease in family size.
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是和家中小孩數減少有關的。
12:08
I just want not to have any room for doubt --
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我要你們每一個人
12:10
you have to see that for yourself.
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都親眼看看這張圖的變化,
12:12
This is what happened. Now I start the world.
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就是這麼一回事。現在,世界在改變,
12:15
Here we come down with the eradication of
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教育水準提升了,
12:17
smallpox, better education,
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天花也不見了,教育水準
12:19
health service.
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和醫療體系都提升了,
12:21
It got down there -- China comes into the Western box here.
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大家都下降到這裡了,現在中國擠進西方國家框框裡了,
12:24
And here Brazil is in the Western Box.
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巴西也加入了,
12:26
India is approaching. The first African countries coming into the Western box,
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印度就快進來了,有一個非洲國家也進到了這個區塊,
12:29
and we get a lot a new neighbors.
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我們一下子多了好多新鄰居,
12:31
Welcome to a decent life.
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歡迎大家一起提升生活品質,
12:33
Come on. We want everyone down there.
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來吧!每個人都下來這裡吧!
12:35
This is the vision we have, isn't it.
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這是我們的夢想,不是嗎?
12:37
And look now, the first African countries here are coming in.
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看看,首次有非洲國家進到這個區塊了,
12:40
There we are today.
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這就是現在這個世界的樣子。
12:43
There is no such thing
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根本沒有什麼
12:45
as a "Western world" and "developing world."
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「西方國家」和「開發中國家」的差別。
12:47
This is the report from [the] U.N.,
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這一份是聯合國的報告,
12:49
which came out on Friday.
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星期五才剛出刊的,
12:51
It's very good -- "Levels and Trends in Child Mortality" --
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這份報告非常棒:「孩童死亡率及其趨勢」,
12:54
except this page.
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除了這一頁以外。
12:56
This page is very bad;
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這一頁很糟,
12:58
it's a categorization of countries.
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它把國家做了分類,
13:01
It labels "developing countries," -- I can read from the list here --
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標題是「開發中國家」--我可以把名單讀出來,
13:04
developing countries: Republic of Korea -- South Korea.
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開發中國家:南韓...
13:07
Huh?
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啊?
13:09
They get Samsung, how can they be [a] developing country?
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他們有三星這種大公司,怎麼可能是開發中國家?
13:12
They have here Singapore.
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還有,新加坡...
13:14
They have the lowest child mortality in the world, Singapore.
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新加坡的孩童死亡率可是全世界最低的耶!
13:16
They bypassed Sweden five years ago,
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他們在五年前就超越了瑞典,
13:18
and they are labeled a developing country.
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竟然還只是開發中國家?
13:20
They have here Qatar.
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卡達也在名單上,
13:22
It's the richest country in the world with Al Jazeera.
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卡達可是全世界最有錢的國家耶...他們還擁有半島電視台耶!
13:24
How the heck could they be [a] developing country?
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卡達怎麼會是開發中國家?
13:26
This is crap.
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這簡直胡說八道!
13:28
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
13:31
The rest here is good -- the rest is good.
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報告的其他部分都很好,都很好。
13:33
We have to have a modern concept,
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我們的觀念應該要跟得上時代,
13:35
which fits to the data.
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才能讀得懂這些資料。
13:37
And we have to realize
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我們必須瞭解,
13:39
that we are all going to into this, down to here.
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所有的國家都應該下降到這個水準,
13:42
What is the importance now with the relations here.
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重要的是要瞭解其中的關係。
13:45
Look -- even if we look in Africa --
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看看,即使我們把焦點放在非洲,
13:47
these are the African countries.
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這些就是非洲國家,
13:49
You can clearly see the relation with falling child mortality
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你還是可以清楚地看到,在孩童死亡率下降的同時,
13:52
and decreasing family size,
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家中小孩數也在減少,
13:54
even within Africa.
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就算在非洲也一樣,
13:56
It's very clear that this is what happens.
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這是一個很明顯的事實。
13:58
And a very important piece of research came out on Friday
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西雅圖的健康評估機構在星期五
14:01
from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle
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發表了一篇很重要的研究報告,
14:05
showing that almost 50 percent
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他們指出,孩童死亡率之所以下降,
14:07
of the fall in child mortality
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有一半可以歸功於
14:09
can be attributed to female education.
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女性接受教育所帶來的影響。
14:12
That is, when we get girls in school,
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也就是說,當我們把女孩們送到學校去,
14:15
we'll get an impact 15 to 20 years later,
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15到20年後,我們就會看到實際的效用發生,
14:17
which is a secular trend which is very strong.
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這種影響的效用是很強烈的。
14:20
That's why we must have that long-term perspective,
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所以我們得把眼光放遠,
14:23
but we must measure the impact
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至少要以十年
14:25
over 10-year periods.
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做為衡量的區間。
14:27
It's fully possible
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要讓這些國家的
14:29
to get child mortality down in all of these countries
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孩童死亡率下降,是絕對可能的,
14:31
and to get them down in the corner
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他們一定能下降到這個角落,
14:33
where we all would like to live together.
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達到和其他國家一樣的水準。
14:37
And of course, lowering child mortality
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當然,從人道主義的觀點來看,
14:40
is a matter of utmost importance
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孩童死亡率的降低
14:43
from humanitarian aspects.
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有其絕對的重要性,
14:45
It's a decent life for children,
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我們所談的,
14:47
we are talking about.
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是要保障孩童基本的生活品質。
14:49
But it is also a strategic investment
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這當然也算是我們全體人類
14:52
in the future of all mankind,
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對未來的重要策略性投資,
14:54
because it's about the environment.
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因為這攸關環境的現況。
14:57
We will not be able to manage the environment
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如果我們不能控制全世界的人口成長,
14:59
and avoid the terrible climate crisis
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我們就無法保有良好的環境,
15:01
if we don't stabilize the world population.
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也就無法避免可怕的氣候變遷,
15:03
Let's be clear about that.
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我們一定得清楚瞭解這一點。
15:05
And the way to do that,
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要達到這個目標,
15:07
that is to get child mortality down, get access to family planning
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首先我們得降低孩童死亡率,提倡家庭計畫,
15:10
and behind that drive female education.
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而且讓女性接受教育,
15:13
And that is fully possible. Let's do it.
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我們絕對有可能辦到,就這麼辦吧!
15:15
Thank you very much.
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謝謝各位!
15:17
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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