Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies

Translator: Eva Hoxha Reviewer: Alma A

Almost two years ago,

Rreth dy vite me pare,

I was driving in my car in Germany,

po udhetoja me makine ne Gjermani

and I turned on the radio.

dhe ndeza radion.

Europe at the time was in the middle

Europa ne ate kohe ishte ne mes

of the Euro crisis,

te krizes se Euros

and all the headlines were about European countries

dhe te gjjithe titujt e lajmeve ishin per vendet Europiane

getting downgraded by rating agencies

te cilat zhvleresoheshin nga agjensite vleresuese

in the United States.

ne Shtetet e Bashkuara.

I listened and thought to myself,

Une degjoja dhe mendoja me vete,

"What are these rating agencies,

"Cfare jane keto agjensi vleresuese,

and why is everybody so upset about their work?"

dhe pse te gjthe jane te merzitur me punen e tyre?"

Well, if you were sitting

Nese do te ishit ulur

next to me in the car that day

ngjitur me mua ate dite

and would have told me that I would devote

dhe do te me thoshit se do tju kushtoja

the next years to trying to reform them,

vitet e mia te ardhshme mundimit per t'i reformuar ato,

obviously I would have called you crazy.

do t'ju thosha se jeni cmendur.

But guess what's really crazy:

Por gjejeni se cfare eshte me te vertete nje cmenduri:

the way these rating agencies are run.

menyra sesi veprojne keto agjensi.

And I would like to explain to you

Une do te doja t'ju shpjegoj

not only why it's time to change this,

jo vetem se pse eshte koha ta ndryshojme kete,

but also how we can do it.

por edhe sesi mund ta bejme kete.

So let me tell you a little bit

Keshtu qe me lejoni t'ju tregoj pak

about what rating agencies really do.

se cfare bejne ne te vertete agjensite vleresuese.

As you would read a car magazine

Ashtu sic do te merrnit te lexoni nje reviste per makinat

before purchasing a new car

perpara se te bleni nje makine te re,

or taking a look at a product review

ose ashtu sic shikoni kritiken e nje produkti

before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,

perpara se te vendosni se cilen lloj te tabletes apo te telefonit te bleni,

investors are reading ratings

investitoret lexojne vleresimet

before they decide in which kind of product

perpara se te vendosin se ne cilin lloj produkti

they are investing their money.

jane duke investuar parate e tyre.

A rating can range from a so-called AAA,

Nje vleresim mund te varioje nga e quajtura AAA,

which means it's a top-performing product,

qe do te thote qe eshte nje produkt me super-performance

and it can go down to the level

dhe mund te shkoje poshte nivelit

of the so-called BBB-,

ne ate te quajturn BBB-,

which means it's a fairly risky investment.

qe do te thote qe eshte nje investim shume riskoz.

Rating agencies are rating companies.

Agjensite vleresuese jane kompani vleresimi.

They are rating banks.

Ato jane banka vleresuese.

They are rating even financial products

Ato gjithashtu vleresojne produkte financiare

like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.

ashtu si famekeqet asetet e kredive hipotekore.

But they can also rate countries,

Por ato gjithashtu mund te vleresojne vende,

and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,

dhe keto vleresime quhen vleresime sovrane,

and I would like to focus in particular

dhe une do te doja te fokusohesha ne vecanti

on these sovereign ratings.

ne keto vleresime sovrane.

And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,

Dhe mund te them se nderkohe qe ju me degjoni,

you're thinking,

ju po mendoni,

so why should I really care about this, right?

perse duhet ne te vertete te me interesoje kjo?

Be honest.

Tregohu i sinqerte.

Well, ratings affect you.

Ne te vertete vleresimet ju prekin ju.

They affect all of us.

Ata na prekin te gjithe ne.

If a rating agency rates a country,

Nese nje agjensi vlereson nje vend.

it basically assesses and evaluates

ne thelb ajo nderhyn dhe vlereson

a country's debt

borxhet e nje vendi

and the ability and willingness of a country

dhe aftesine dhe gadishmerine e nje vendi

to repay its debt.

per te ripaguar borxhet e tij.

So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,

Keshtu qe nese nje vend merr vleresime renese nga nje agjensi vleresuese,

the country has to pay more

vendi duhet te paguaj me shume

in order to borrow money

ne menyre qe te marre hua para

on the international markets.

ne tregjet nderkombetare.

So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,

Keshtu qe te prek ty si qytetar dhe si taksapagues,

because you and your fellow countrymen

sepse ti dhe bashkatdhetaret e tu

have to pony up more in order to borrow.

duhet te paguani me shume ne menyre qe te merrni borxh.

But what if a country can't afford to pay more

Por nese nje vend nuk mund ta perballoje te paguaje me shume

because it's maybe too expensive?

sepse ndoshta eshte shume e shtrenjte?

Well, then the country has less available

Ne kete rast vendi ka me pak ne dispozicion

for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.

per sherbime te tjera, si rruget, shkollat, kujdesin shendetesor.

And this is the reason why you should care,

Dhe kjo eshte arsyeja se pse duhet t'ju interesoje

because sovereign ratings affect everyone.

sepse vleresimet sovrane na prekin te gjitheve.

And that is the reason why I believe

Dhe kjo eshte arsyeja se pse une besoj

they should be defined as public goods.

se ato duhet te vleresohen si te mira publike.

They should be transparent, accessible,

Ato duhet te jene transparente, te arritshme,

and available to everyone at no cost.

dhe te disponueshme per te gjithe pa asnje kosto.

But here's the situation:

Por ja ku eshte situata:

the rating agency market is dominated

tregu i agjensive vleresuese eshte i dominuar

by three players and three players only --

nga tre lojtare dhe vetem nga tre lojtare--

Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --

Standard & Poors, Moody's dhe Fitch --

and we know whenever there is a market concentration,

dhe ne e dime se kudo ku ka nje perqendrim tregu,

there is really no competition.

nuk ka ne te vertete konkurence.

There is no incentive to improve

Nuk ka asnje nxitje per te permisuar

the quality of your product.

kualitetin e produkteveve te tua.

And let's face it, the credit rating agencies have contributed,

Duhet ta pranojme qe agjensite vleresuese te kreditit kane kontribuar,

putting the global economy on the brink,

duke e vendosur ekonomine globale ne skaje te rrezikshme,

and yet they have to change the way they operate.

dhe akoma s'e kane ndryshuar menyren sesi ato operojne.

The second point,

Pika e dyte,

would you really buy a car

a do ta blenit nje makine

just based on the advice of the dealer?

vetem me keshillen e shitesit?

Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.

Padyshim jo, apo jo? Kjo do te ishte e papergjegjshme.

But that's actually what's going on

Por ne te vertete kjo eshte ajo qe ndodh

in the rating agency sector every single day.

ne sektorin e agjensive vleresuese cdo dite.

The customers of these rating agencies,

Klientet e ketyre agjensive vleresuese,

like countries or companies,

si vendet apo kompanite,

they are paying for their own ratings,

po paguajne vete per vleresimet e tyre,

and obviously this is creating

dhe kjo ne menyre te qarte po krijon

a conflict of interest.

nje konflikt interesash.

The third point is,

Pika e trete eshte,

the rating agencies are not really telling us

agjensite vleresuese nuk po na tregojne ne te vertete

how they are coming up with their ratings,

sesi dalin ata ne keto vleresime,

but in this day and age,

por ne kete kohe qe jetojme,

you can't even sell a candy bar

nuk mund te shesesh asnje cokollate

without listing everything that's inside.

pa listuar gjithcka qe ajo ka brenda.

But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,

Por per vleresimet, nje element vendimtar i ekonomise sone,

we really do not know

ne ne te vertete nuk e dime

what all the different ingredients are.

se cilet jane te gjithe perberesit e ndryshem.

We are allowing the rating agencies

Ne po lejojme agjensite vleresuese

to be intransparent about their work,

te mos jene transparente per punen e tyre,

and we need to change this.

dhe ne duhet ta ndryshojme kete gje.

I think there is no doubt that the sector

Une mendoj se nuk ka asnje dyshim se sektori

needs a complete overhaul,

ka nevoje per nje riparim kapital

not just a trimming at the margins.

jo vetem te nje kufizim te kufijve.

I think it's time for a bold move.

Une mendoj se eshte koha per nje levizje te guximshme.

I think it's time to upgrade the system.

Une mendoj se eshte koha te permisojme sistemin.

And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation

Per kete arsye ne Fondacionin Bertelsmann

have invested a lot of time and effort

kemi investuar shume kohe dhe perpjekje

thinking about an alternative for the sector.

duke menduar per nje alternative per sektorin.

And we have developed the first model

Dhe kemi zhvilluar modelin e pare

for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,

per nje agjensi vleresuese jofitimprurese per vendet riskoze,

and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.

dhe e quajme ate me akronimet e tij, INCRA.

INCRA would make a difference

INCRA do te beje nje ndryshim

to the current system

ne sistemin aktual

by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.

duke shtuar nje lojtar tjeter jofitimprures ne kete miks.

It would be based on a nonprofit model

Do te bazohet ne nje model jofititmprures

that would be based on a sustainable endowment.

qe do te bazohet ne nje ndihme te qendrueshme.

The endowment would create income

Kjo ndihme do te krijoje te ardhura

that would allow us to run the operation,

qe do te na lejojne te drejtojme operacionin.

to run the rating agency,

per te vene ne funksionim agjensine vleresuese,

and it would also allow us

dhe do te na lejoje ne

to make our ratings publicly available.

te publikojme vleresimet tona.

But this is not enough to make a difference, right?

Por kjo nuk eshte mjaftueshem per te krijuar ndryshim, apo jo?

INCRA would also be based on

INCRA gjithashtu do te bazohet

a very, very clear governance structure

ne nje strukture qeverisese shume shume te qarte

that would avoid any conflict of interest,

qe do te shmange cdo konflikt interesi,

and it would include many stakeholders from society.

dhe do te perfshije shume aksionere nga shoqeria.

INCRA would not only be a European

INCRA nuk do te jete nje agjensi

or an American rating agency,

vetem europiane apo amerikane,

it would be a truly international one,

ajo do te jete ne te vertete nderkombetare,

in which, in particular, the emerging economies

ne te cilen, ekonomite ne rritje ne vecanti,

would have an equal interest, voice and representation.

do te kene nje interes, ze dhe prezantim te barabarte.

The second big difference that INCRA would make is

Ndryshimi i dyte i madh qe do te bej INCRA

that would it base its sovereign risk assessment

do te jete ai i bazuar ne vlersimin e riskut per vendet

on a broader set of indicators.

ne nje baze treguesish me te gjere.

Think about it that way.

Mendo ne kete menyre.

If we conduct a sovereign rating,

Nese ne realizojme nje vleresim sovran

we basically take a look at

ne thelb ne shohim

the economic soil of a country,

ne token ekonomike te nje vendi,

its macroeconomic fundamentals.

ne bazat makroekonomike.

But we also have to ask the question,

Por ne gjithashtu duhet te bejme pyetjen,

who is cultivating the economic soil

cili po e kultivon token ekonomike

of a country, right?

te nje vendi, apo jo?

Well, a country has many gardeners,

Ne te vertete nje vend ka shume kopshtare,

and one of them is the government,

dhe njeri prej tyre eshte qeveria,

so we have to ask the question,

keshtu qe duhet te bejme pyetjen,

how is a country governed?

se si qeveriset nje vend.

How is it managed?

Si manaxhohet ai?

And this is the reason why we have developed

Kjo eshte arsyeja se pse kemi zhvilluar

what we call forward-looking indicators.

ato qe ne i quajme treguesit progresiv.

These are indicators that give you

Keto jane indikatore qe te japin ty

a much better read about

nje te lexuar me te mire

the socioeconomic development of a country.

te zhvillimit ekonomiko-social te nje vendi.

I hope you would agree it's important for you to know

Shpresoj qe ju te jeni dakort se eshte e rendesishme qe te dini nese

if your government is willing to invest in renewable energy and education.

qeveria juaj eshte e gatshme te investoje ne energjine e rinovueshme dhe edukimin.

It's important for you to know

Eshte e rendesishme per ju te dini

if the government of your country

nese qeveria e vendit tuaj

is able to manage a crisis,

eshte e gatshme te manaxhoje nje krize,

if the government is finally able to implement

nese qeveria eshte me ne fund e afte te implementoje

the reforms that it's promised.

reformat qe ka premtuar.

For example, if INCRA would rate

Per shembull, nese INCRA do te mund te vleresonte

South Africa right now,

Afriken e Jugut ne kete moment,

of course we would take a very, very close look

sigurisht qe ne do te shikonim me shume kujdes

at the youth unemployment of the country,

papunesine e te rinjve ne vend,

the highest in the world.

me e larta ne bote.

If over 70 percent of a country's population

Nese mbi 70% e popullsise se vendit

under the age of 35 is unemployed,

nen moshen 35 vjec eshte e papunesuar,

of course this has a huge impact on the economy

sigurisht qe kjo ka nje impakt shume te madh ne ekonomi

today and even more so in the future.

sot dhe akoma edhe me shume ne te ardhmen.

Well, our friends at Moody's,

Miqte tane tek Moody,

Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us

Standart &Poor's dhe Fitch do te na tregojne

we would take this into account as well.

se duhet gjithashtu ta marrim parasysh kete.

But guess what? We do not know

Por e dini cfare? Ne nuk e dime

exactly how they will take this into account.

ekzaktesisht sesi ata do e marrin kete parasysh.

And this leads me to the third big difference

Dhe kjo me drejton ne ndryshimin e trete te madh

that INCRA would make.

qe INCRA do te bente.

INCRA would not only release its ratings

INCRA jo vetem do t'i publikonte vleresimet e saj

but it would also release its indicators

por gjithashtu do te publikonte treguesit e saj

and methodology.

dhe metodologjine.

So in contrast to the current system,

Keshtu qe ne kontrast me sistemin aktual

INCRA would be fully transparent.

INCRA do te ishte plotesisht transparente.

So in a nutshell,

Keshtu ne thelb,

INCRA would offer an alternative

INCRA do t'i ofronte nje alternative

to the current system of the big three rating agencies

sistemit aktual te tre agjensive vleresuese me te medha

by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix

duke shtuar nje lojtar te ri jofitimprures ne kete miks

that would increase the competition,

qe do te rriste konkurencen,

it would increase the transparency of the sector,

do te rriste transparencen e sektorit,

and it would also increase the quality.

dhe gjithashtu do te rriste kualitetin.

I can tell that sovereign ratings

Mund tju them se vleresimet sovrane

may still look to you like this very small piece

mund t'ju duken akoma si nje pjese shume e vogel

of this very complex global financial world,

e kesaj bote financiare shume komplekse,

but I tell you it's a very important one,

por mund tju them se eshte nje bote shume e rendesishme,

and a very important one to fix,

dhe eshte shume e rendesishme qe te rregullohet,

because sovereign ratings affect all of us,

sepse vleresimet sovrane na prekin te gjitheve ne,

and they should be addressed and should be defined

dhe ato duhet te adresohen dhe duhet te percaktohen

as public goods.

si te mira publike.

And this is why we are testing our model right now,

Dhe ja pse ne po e testojme modelin tone pikerisht tani,

and why we are trying to find out if it can

dhe perse ne po perpiqemi te zbulojme nese mundemi

bring together a group of able and willing actors

te sjellim sebashku nje grup lojtaresh te afte dhe qe deshirojne

to bring INCRA to life.

te sjellin INCRA ne jete.

I truly believe building up INCRA

Une me te vertete besoj se ndertimi i INCRA

is in everyone's interest,

eshte ne interesin e gjithsecilit,

and that we have the unique opportunity right now

dhe se ne kemi mundesine unike pikerisht tani

to turn INCRA into a cornerstone

te kthejme INCRA ne nje gur themeli

of a new, more inclusive financial system.

te nje sistemi financiar me te ri dhe gjitheperfshires.

Because for way too long,

Sepse per nje kohe shume te gjate,

we have left the big financial players on their own.

ne i kemi lene lojtaret financiar me vete,

It's time to give them some company.

Eshte koha ti bejme atyre pak shoqeri.

Thank you.

Ju falemnderit.

(Applause)

(Duartrokitje)