Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies

翻译人员: Mandy Zhang 校对人员: Zhiting Chen

Almost two years ago,

大约两年前

I was driving in my car in Germany,

我在德国开车的时候

and I turned on the radio.

打开了收音机

Europe at the time was in the middle

当时的欧洲

of the Euro crisis,

正处于欧债危机当中

and all the headlines were about European countries

所有报纸上的头版头条

getting downgraded by rating agencies

都是欧洲国家

in the United States.

被美国评级机构降级的消息

I listened and thought to myself,

我边听边想

"What are these rating agencies,

这些评级机构是做什么的

and why is everybody so upset about their work?"

为什么大家都因为他们的工作感到沮丧

Well, if you were sitting

其实如果当时

next to me in the car that day

你坐在我车里的副驾上

and would have told me that I would devote

你肯定会告诉我

the next years to trying to reform them,

我将在未来几年中致力于评级机构的改革

obviously I would have called you crazy.

当然 我会说那是疯狂的想法

But guess what's really crazy:

但你猜真正疯狂的是什么

the way these rating agencies are run.

这些评级机构的运作模式

And I would like to explain to you

我今天要和你们探讨的不仅是

not only why it's time to change this,

为什么我们要在现在进行改革

but also how we can do it.

还要讨论怎样进行改革

So let me tell you a little bit

先来说说

about what rating agencies really do.

评级机构到底都做什么

As you would read a car magazine

你一般会先看看汽车杂志

before purchasing a new car

再去买新车

or taking a look at a product review

或者是先浏览产品评价

before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,

再决定到底买哪种平板电脑或手机

investors are reading ratings

投资者们则是先看评级

before they decide in which kind of product

再决定

they are investing their money.

把钱投向哪种产品

A rating can range from a so-called AAA,

评级范围包括

which means it's a top-performing product,

从最顶尖的AAA

and it can go down to the level

到最差的垫底级别

of the so-called BBB-,

也就是BBB-

which means it's a fairly risky investment.

也就是说这是一项非常冒险的投资

Rating agencies are rating companies.

评级机构的评级对象包括

They are rating banks.

公司、银行

They are rating even financial products

甚至是金融产品

like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.

比如说名声不怎么好的按揭证券

But they can also rate countries,

但评级对象还包括国家

and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,

这种评级叫做主权信用评级

and I would like to focus in particular

今天我就想主要讲一讲

on these sovereign ratings.

这些主权信用评级

And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,

我敢说，在座的各位听众

you're thinking,

肯定有人在想

so why should I really care about this, right?

主权信用评级关我什么事？

Be honest.

肯定有人在这么想

Well, ratings affect you.

其实 主权信用评级对你有影响

They affect all of us.

对我们所有人都有影响

If a rating agency rates a country,

一家评级机构对国家进行评级

it basically assesses and evaluates

主要是评判

a country's debt

一个国家的债务状况

and the ability and willingness of a country

及其履行偿债责任的

to repay its debt.

信用意愿与信用能力

So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,

所以如果某国主权信用评级下降

the country has to pay more

那么这个国家

in order to borrow money

在国际市场借债

on the international markets.

则需支出更多成本

So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,

所以作为公民和纳税人的你当然受到影响

because you and your fellow countrymen

因为你和你的同胞们不得不付出

have to pony up more in order to borrow.

更高昂的贷款利息支出

But what if a country can't afford to pay more

但如果一个国家负担不起

because it's maybe too expensive?

太过高昂的借贷成本怎么办

Well, then the country has less available

那么这个国家只能削减服务

for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.

比如道路、学校、医疗

And this is the reason why you should care,

所以你必须要关注这个问题

because sovereign ratings affect everyone.

因为主权信用评级影响每一个人

And that is the reason why I believe

这正因如此，我认为

they should be defined as public goods.

应将其定义为公共财产

They should be transparent, accessible,

透明的、可获取的

and available to everyone at no cost.

免费面向所有人

But here's the situation:

但现在的情况是

the rating agency market is dominated

评级机构市场

by three players and three players only --

被三家机构垄断

Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --

标普、穆迪和惠誉

and we know whenever there is a market concentration,

众所周知，当市场集中度走高

there is really no competition.

就不会有竞争

There is no incentive to improve

从而也就不会有诱因

the quality of your product.

鼓励大家提高产品质量

And let's face it, the credit rating agencies have contributed,

我们只能面对现实

putting the global economy on the brink,

信用评级机构把全球经济推向边缘

and yet they have to change the way they operate.

然而他们必须要改变其运作方式

The second point,

第二点我要说的是

would you really buy a car

你买车的时候

just based on the advice of the dealer?

难道是经销商说了算吗

Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.

明显不是。那是不负责任的做法

But that's actually what's going on

但事实上现在就是这样

in the rating agency sector every single day.

评级行业每天都是如此

The customers of these rating agencies,

这些评级机构的客户

like countries or companies,

比如说国家 或公司

they are paying for their own ratings,

他们付费从而获得评级

and obviously this is creating

很明显

a conflict of interest.

这其中存在利益冲突

The third point is,

我要讲的第三点是

the rating agencies are not really telling us

评级机构并没有向我们展示

how they are coming up with their ratings,

他们评级的方法和过程

but in this day and age,

但在如今这个年代

you can't even sell a candy bar

你如果不清清楚楚列出其成分

without listing everything that's inside.

连一块糖都别想卖出去

But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,

但就评级来讲

we really do not know

经济中如此重要的一个元素

what all the different ingredients are.

我们并不知道其工作方法过程

We are allowing the rating agencies

我们允许评级机构

to be intransparent about their work,

工作的不透明性

and we need to change this.

我们现在需要改变

I think there is no doubt that the sector

毫无疑问，我认为

needs a complete overhaul,

评级领域需要彻底改革

not just a trimming at the margins.

绝不仅仅是小打小闹

I think it's time for a bold move.

是时候采取大动作了

I think it's time to upgrade the system.

是时候进行改善升级了

And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation

正因如此，贝塔斯曼基金会

have invested a lot of time and effort

投入大量时间和精力

thinking about an alternative for the sector.

探索如何对评级行业进行改革

And we have developed the first model

我们已经建立了一个全新模式

for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,

一个非营利性的主权信用评级机构

and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.

其缩写是INCRA

INCRA would make a difference

INCRA 将会

to the current system

改变现行机制

by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.

将非盈利性机构加入现有的组合

It would be based on a nonprofit model

INCRA 基于非盈利性模式

that would be based on a sustainable endowment.

会有持续不断的款项为其奠定基础

The endowment would create income

这些款项将为其运营者们

that would allow us to run the operation,

带来收入

to run the rating agency,

保证评级机构的运营管理

and it would also allow us

同时还能够保证

to make our ratings publicly available.

我们提供的评级公开可用

But this is not enough to make a difference, right?

但仅凭这些尚且无法实现大转变

INCRA would also be based on

INCRA还将基于

a very, very clear governance structure

一个十分明确的管理结构

that would avoid any conflict of interest,

避免利益冲突

and it would include many stakeholders from society.

涵盖社会各界的利益攸关者

INCRA would not only be a European

INCRA 将不仅仅是欧洲的

or an American rating agency,

或者美国的评级机构

it would be a truly international one,

它将切实成为全球性的机构

in which, in particular, the emerging economies

尤其是考虑到新兴经济体

would have an equal interest, voice and representation.

他们将享有平等的利益、话语权和代表权

The second big difference that INCRA would make is

INCRA 要实现的第二大转变是

that would it base its sovereign risk assessment

其主权信用风险评判

on a broader set of indicators.

将基于一系列更广泛的指标

Think about it that way.

想想看

If we conduct a sovereign rating,

如果我们进行主权信用评级

we basically take a look at

我们基本上是要看

the economic soil of a country,

一个国家的经济土壤

its macroeconomic fundamentals.

其宏观经济的基本面

But we also have to ask the question,

但我们也必须考虑一个问题

who is cultivating the economic soil

谁在培育这个国家的经济土壤

of a country, right?

是不是？

Well, a country has many gardeners,

事实上 一个国家有许多位园艺大师

and one of them is the government,

其中之一 便是政府

so we have to ask the question,

所以我们又要考虑的问题是

how is a country governed?

一个国家是如何管理？

How is it managed?

它又是如何运作的？

And this is the reason why we have developed

正因如此，我们探索开发了

what we call forward-looking indicators.

我们所谓的前瞻性指标

These are indicators that give you

这些指标能够

a much better read about

为你更好地解读

the socioeconomic development of a country.

一个国家的社会经济发展状况

I hope you would agree it's important for you to know

我希望你能认同的是，你需要了解

if your government is willing to invest in renewable energy and education.

政府是否愿意投资可再生能源和教育

It's important for you to know

你需要了解

if the government of your country

政府是否

is able to manage a crisis,

有能力管理危机

if the government is finally able to implement

政府是否最终能够

the reforms that it's promised.

推行其承诺过的改革

For example, if INCRA would rate

例如，如果现在

South Africa right now,

INCRA 要对南非进行主权信用评级

of course we would take a very, very close look

我们肯定会密切审视

at the youth unemployment of the country,

这个国家的青年失业问题

the highest in the world.

全球最严重非其莫属

If over 70 percent of a country's population

如果一个国家35岁以下的人口当中

under the age of 35 is unemployed,

超过70%处于失业状态

of course this has a huge impact on the economy

显然会对经济产生巨大影响

today and even more so in the future.

今天如此，将来更甚

Well, our friends at Moody's,

于是，穆迪

Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us

标普和惠誉的同行会说

we would take this into account as well.

我们也会考虑这个因素

But guess what? We do not know

但你猜怎么着？我们并不知道

exactly how they will take this into account.

他们到底会如何将之列入考虑因素

And this leads me to the third big difference

这也把我们引到了

that INCRA would make.

INCRA要实现的第三个重大转变

INCRA would not only release its ratings

INCRA不仅会公布其评级

but it would also release its indicators

还会公布其各项指标

and methodology.

以及评级方法

So in contrast to the current system,

因此，与现行制度形成鲜明对比

INCRA would be fully transparent.

INCRA 将是完全透明的

So in a nutshell,

总而言之

INCRA would offer an alternative

INCRA 将提供

to the current system of the big three rating agencies

除现有的三大评级机构主宰局势的另一种选择

by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix

通过引入全新非盈利性机构的方式

that would increase the competition,

这将增加竞争

it would increase the transparency of the sector,

提高评级领域透明度

and it would also increase the quality.

还会提高评级工作的质量

I can tell that sovereign ratings

主权信用评级在你看来

may still look to you like this very small piece

可能还是复杂的世界金融系统中

of this very complex global financial world,

一个小小的组成部分

but I tell you it's a very important one,

但我敢跟你保证

and a very important one to fix,

这一改革尤为重要

because sovereign ratings affect all of us,

因为主权信用评级影响着所有人

and they should be addressed and should be defined

应当将其作为公共财产

as public goods.

对待和处理

And this is why we are testing our model right now,

所以 现在我们正在试行这一全新模式

and why we are trying to find out if it can

我们也在试图探索是否可以召集一组人马

bring together a group of able and willing actors

怀揣共同目标，胜任这一工作

to bring INCRA to life.

给 INCRA 注入活力

I truly believe building up INCRA

我坚信 INCRA 的成立

is in everyone's interest,

符合每个人的利益

and that we have the unique opportunity right now

现在我们享有绝佳时机

to turn INCRA into a cornerstone

将 INCRA 打造成为基石

of a new, more inclusive financial system.

奠定一个全新的，更具包容性的金融体系

Because for way too long,

因为太久以来

we have left the big financial players on their own.

我们对金融巨头的行为不闻不问

It's time to give them some company.

是时候参与进来了

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）