Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies

83,665 views ・ 2014-02-28

TED


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譯者: Jen-Huei Wu 審譯者: Shiwen He
00:12
Almost two years ago,
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大約兩年前,
00:14
I was driving in my car in Germany,
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我在德國開車時,
00:16
and I turned on the radio.
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打開收音機,
00:19
Europe at the time was in the middle
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歐洲當時
00:21
of the Euro crisis,
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處於歐債,
00:22
and all the headlines were about European countries
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所有的頭版都是
歐洲國家又被
00:27
getting downgraded by rating agencies
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00:30
in the United States.
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美國評級機構降級的消息。
00:31
I listened and thought to myself,
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那時我不禁自問:
00:34
"What are these rating agencies,
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「這些評級機構到底是什麼?
00:36
and why is everybody so upset about their work?"
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為何大家對它們的評價這麼在意?」
00:39
Well, if you were sitting
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若那天你是
00:41
next to me in the car that day
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坐在我旁邊,
00:43
and would have told me that I would devote
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然後告訴我,
00:45
the next years to trying to reform them,
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我未來幾年會試著 去改變這些機構,
00:49
obviously I would have called you crazy.
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我會毫不猶豫地認定你瘋了。
00:53
But guess what's really crazy:
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但還有更瘋的:
00:55
the way these rating agencies are run.
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這些評級機構運作的方式。
00:58
And I would like to explain to you
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我想跟您解釋,
00:59
not only why it's time to change this,
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為何現在是做出改變的時刻,
01:01
but also how we can do it.
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同時也會告訴你如何做出改變。
01:04
So let me tell you a little bit
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讓我來告訴你,
01:06
about what rating agencies really do.
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評級機構到底是做什麼的。
01:10
As you would read a car magazine
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就像您會先閱讀汽車雜誌,
01:12
before purchasing a new car
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再決定要買哪款新車。
01:14
or taking a look at a product review
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或是看完產品的評價,
01:16
before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,
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再決定要買哪種平板電腦或手機。
01:20
investors are reading ratings
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投資者也會先看評價,
01:22
before they decide in which kind of product
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再決定把他們的金錢
01:25
they are investing their money.
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投資給某種金融產品。
01:27
A rating can range from a so-called AAA,
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評價制度從所謂的「AAA」,
01:30
which means it's a top-performing product,
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意味著表現超級亮眼的產品,
01:33
and it can go down to the level
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降到十分低的評價,
01:36
of the so-called BBB-,
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稱做「BBB-」,
01:39
which means it's a fairly risky investment.
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意味著還蠻有風險的投資。
01:42
Rating agencies are rating companies.
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評級機構不只評級
01:45
They are rating banks.
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公司、銀行,
01:46
They are rating even financial products
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還對金融產品評級,
01:48
like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.
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比如臭名昭著的不動產抵押債券。
01:51
But they can also rate countries,
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連國家也能納入評價,
01:54
and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,
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這些評價有稱為「主權評價」。
01:56
and I would like to focus in particular
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今天我就來重點談談
01:59
on these sovereign ratings.
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這些主權評價。
02:01
And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,
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我看的出,
在場一定有人納悶著,
02:04
you're thinking,
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02:05
so why should I really care about this, right?
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為何我會對這些評價這麼在意?
02:08
Be honest.
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說真心話。
02:09
Well, ratings affect you.
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這些評價會影響你,
02:12
They affect all of us.
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也會影響我們所有人。
02:14
If a rating agency rates a country,
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當評級機構評價一個國家時,
02:17
it basically assesses and evaluates
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它基本上就是評估
02:20
a country's debt
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這個國家的債務狀況,
02:22
and the ability and willingness of a country
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以及這個國家
02:24
to repay its debt.
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還債的能力和意願。
02:26
So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,
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所以,若評級機構降低一國的評級,
02:29
the country has to pay more
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那國家就必須在國際市場上
02:31
in order to borrow money
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付出更多,
02:33
on the international markets.
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才能夠借錢。
02:35
So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,
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所以作為公民及納稅人,你會受影響。
02:37
because you and your fellow countrymen
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因為你和其它公民
02:40
have to pony up more in order to borrow.
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必須接受更高的 貨款利息才能借款。
02:44
But what if a country can't afford to pay more
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若一個國家因為成本過於高昂
02:46
because it's maybe too expensive?
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而負擔不起怎麼辦?
02:49
Well, then the country has less available
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這樣一來,國家就無法 提供別的服務,
02:52
for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.
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如道路、學校、醫療。
02:56
And this is the reason why you should care,
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這就是為什麼你該了解此議題,
02:58
because sovereign ratings affect everyone.
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因為主權評價能夠影響每個人。
03:01
And that is the reason why I believe
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這就是為什麼我相信,
03:03
they should be defined as public goods.
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它們該定義為公共財產。
03:06
They should be transparent, accessible,
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它們應該透眀,易取,
03:09
and available to everyone at no cost.
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而且免費提供給大眾。
03:13
But here's the situation:
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但情況來了:
03:15
the rating agency market is dominated
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評級機構的市場是由
03:17
by three players and three players only --
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三大主要的角色壟斷的 --
03:20
Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --
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普爾、穆迪、惠譽。
03:23
and we know whenever there is a market concentration,
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眾所皆知,當市場集中時,
03:26
there is really no competition.
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競爭就不復存在。
03:28
There is no incentive to improve
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改善品質的激勵
03:30
the quality of your product.
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就會消失殆盡。
03:33
And let's face it, the credit rating agencies have contributed,
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面對現實吧,評級機構
好幾次把全球經濟推向邊緣。
03:37
putting the global economy on the brink,
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03:40
and yet they have to change the way they operate.
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所以其運作方式有待改善。
03:43
The second point,
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第二點就是,
03:45
would you really buy a car
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你購買汽車時,會單憑
03:47
just based on the advice of the dealer?
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經銷商給的建議做決定嗎?
03:51
Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.
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肯定不會嘛! 因為這樣不負責任嘛!
03:54
But that's actually what's going on
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但實際上,這種運作模式
03:56
in the rating agency sector every single day.
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日復一日地出現在評級領域裡。
04:00
The customers of these rating agencies,
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這三大評級機構的顧客們,
04:03
like countries or companies,
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像是國家或者公司,
04:06
they are paying for their own ratings,
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他們付費獲得自己的評級,
04:08
and obviously this is creating
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這樣一來無庸置疑地
04:10
a conflict of interest.
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產生了利益衝突。
04:13
The third point is,
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第三點就是,
04:15
the rating agencies are not really telling us
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這些評級機構從未讓我們知道
04:18
how they are coming up with their ratings,
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他們的評級從何而來。
04:21
but in this day and age,
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但是在當下,
04:23
you can't even sell a candy bar
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連推銷一個糖果
04:25
without listing everything that's inside.
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都得一一列出裡面的成分。
04:28
But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,
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然而,評級是經濟構成的重要元素,
04:31
we really do not know
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我們卻無從得知
04:33
what all the different ingredients are.
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裡面的任何一樣細節。
04:36
We are allowing the rating agencies
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我們就這樣讓這些評級機構
04:37
to be intransparent about their work,
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以不透明的運作方式做出評級,
04:40
and we need to change this.
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所以我們必須改變現況。
04:42
I think there is no doubt that the sector
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我想這是一塊
04:45
needs a complete overhaul,
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亟需全面檢查的區域。
04:46
not just a trimming at the margins.
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而不僅僅做些不痛不癢的改變,
04:49
I think it's time for a bold move.
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我認為該是大膽踏出一大步的時候了,
04:51
I think it's time to upgrade the system.
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是系統升級的時候了。
04:54
And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation
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這就是為什麼我們「貝塔斯曼基金會」,
04:57
have invested a lot of time and effort
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投入了大量的時間和精力,
05:00
thinking about an alternative for the sector.
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為人們提供另一項選擇。
05:03
And we have developed the first model
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我們已開發出第一個模式,
05:06
for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,
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是個非營利的主權評價機構,
05:11
and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.
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簡稱 INCRA。
05:16
INCRA would make a difference
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INCRA 會改善
05:17
to the current system
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現有的系統。
05:19
by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.
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通過將非營利的評級機構加入戰局,
05:24
It would be based on a nonprofit model
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它將建立在非營利的模式上,
05:27
that would be based on a sustainable endowment.
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且會有大量的資金作為後盾。
05:31
The endowment would create income
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這些資金會創造收入,
05:33
that would allow us to run the operation,
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讓營運更順暢,
05:35
to run the rating agency,
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評級機構也會因此受惠。
05:37
and it would also allow us
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這也讓我們有機會
05:39
to make our ratings publicly available.
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公開評級的方式。
05:43
But this is not enough to make a difference, right?
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但這麼做還不足以改變現況,對吧?
05:45
INCRA would also be based on
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INCRA 也是建立在
05:47
a very, very clear governance structure
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十分透明的治理結構基礎上,
05:50
that would avoid any conflict of interest,
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這樣就能避開利益相突,
05:53
and it would include many stakeholders from society.
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同時吸納許多民間的財產保管人。
05:58
INCRA would not only be a European
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INCRA 不僅僅是歐洲的、
06:00
or an American rating agency,
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或者美國的評級機構,
06:02
it would be a truly international one,
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它會是全球化的評級機構。
06:05
in which, in particular, the emerging economies
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這樣子,新興經濟才能獲取
06:08
would have an equal interest, voice and representation.
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平等的利益、話語權和代表權。
06:13
The second big difference that INCRA would make is
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INCRA 可做出的第二點轉變就是:
06:16
that would it base its sovereign risk assessment
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它的主權評價會採取
06:19
on a broader set of indicators.
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更加廣泛的指標做評估。
06:22
Think about it that way.
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這樣想好了,
06:24
If we conduct a sovereign rating,
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若由我們進行主權評價,
06:26
we basically take a look at
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我們基本上會觀察
06:27
the economic soil of a country,
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一個國家的經濟基本面,
06:30
its macroeconomic fundamentals.
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它的宏觀經濟基本指標。
06:33
But we also have to ask the question,
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但我們得先自問:
06:35
who is cultivating the economic soil
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是誰在蓄養國家的經濟基礎?
06:38
of a country, right?
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對吧?
06:40
Well, a country has many gardeners,
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一個國家有許多給經濟施肥的人,
06:42
and one of them is the government,
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其中之一就是政府。
06:44
so we have to ask the question,
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下一個問題就是:
06:46
how is a country governed?
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一個國家是如何管理的?
06:47
How is it managed?
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又是如何運作的?
06:49
And this is the reason why we have developed
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這就是為什麼我們要開發
06:51
what we call forward-looking indicators.
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前膽性的指標。
06:54
These are indicators that give you
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這些指標能夠
06:56
a much better read about
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更好地解讀
06:57
the socioeconomic development of a country.
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一個國家的社會經濟發展。
07:01
I hope you would agree it's important for you to know
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我希望你會認同接下來的看法:
07:03
if your government is willing to invest in renewable energy and education.
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若你的政府願意 投資再生能源和教育,
07:11
It's important for you to know
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你就需要去確認,
07:12
if the government of your country
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你國家的政府
07:14
is able to manage a crisis,
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是否有能力解決危機。
07:16
if the government is finally able to implement
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你的政府是否最終
07:19
the reforms that it's promised.
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實施了其承諾的改善。
07:23
For example, if INCRA would rate
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比方說,如果 INCRA
07:25
South Africa right now,
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目前在評價南非,
07:27
of course we would take a very, very close look
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我們當然會很密切地審視
07:30
at the youth unemployment of the country,
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這國家年輕人的失業率,
07:33
the highest in the world.
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南非的數據是全球最高的。
07:35
If over 70 percent of a country's population
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若這個國家 35 歲以下的人口中,
07:38
under the age of 35 is unemployed,
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超過 70% 都失業了,
07:42
of course this has a huge impact on the economy
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這對經濟的影響當然很大。
07:45
today and even more so in the future.
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現況都這麼糟了,以後的就更別提了。
07:49
Well, our friends at Moody's,
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再來看看
07:52
Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us
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普爾、穆迪、惠譽會說:
07:54
we would take this into account as well.
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這些都有納入評價。
07:57
But guess what? We do not know
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但到底有沒有啊? 我們也不知道
07:59
exactly how they will take this into account.
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究竟他們如何將其納入評價的。
08:02
And this leads me to the third big difference
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這帶我們來到第 3 個
08:04
that INCRA would make.
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INCRA 可以做的轉變。
08:06
INCRA would not only release its ratings
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那就是 INCRA 不只會提供其評價,
08:09
but it would also release its indicators
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也會顯示其指標
08:12
and methodology.
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和方法。
08:14
So in contrast to the current system,
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所以與當今的系統相比,
08:16
INCRA would be fully transparent.
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INCRA 的評價方式較為透眀。
08:20
So in a nutshell,
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長話短說,
08:21
INCRA would offer an alternative
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INCRA 會提供另一項選擇,
08:24
to the current system of the big three rating agencies
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除了當今的 3 大評級機構以外,
08:27
by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix
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再加入一個全新的、非營利的評價機構。
08:31
that would increase the competition,
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這樣可以增加競爭,
08:33
it would increase the transparency of the sector,
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為此區塊增加透明度,
08:36
and it would also increase the quality.
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以及提升品質。
08:39
I can tell that sovereign ratings
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我明白主權評級對你來說,
08:41
may still look to you like this very small piece
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可能只是複雜的全球金融系統裡
08:44
of this very complex global financial world,
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渺小的一部分。
08:48
but I tell you it's a very important one,
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但我能跟你打包票說,
08:51
and a very important one to fix,
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這很重要,且極需解決。
08:53
because sovereign ratings affect all of us,
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因為主權評級會影響每一個人,
08:56
and they should be addressed and should be defined
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這問題應當解決,
09:00
as public goods.
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並且應當定義成公共財產。
09:01
And this is why we are testing our model right now,
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因此我們正在測試這一模式,
09:04
and why we are trying to find out if it can
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我們在嘗試組建一支
09:07
bring together a group of able and willing actors
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有意願和能力的隊伍,
09:10
to bring INCRA to life.
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得以讓 INCRA 發揮其作用。
09:13
I truly believe building up INCRA
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我堅信,建立 INCRA
09:16
is in everyone's interest,
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符合在座每一位的利益,
09:18
and that we have the unique opportunity right now
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現在我們有這難得的機會
09:22
to turn INCRA into a cornerstone
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打造 INCRA 為踏基石,
09:24
of a new, more inclusive financial system.
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讓金融系統換然一新,更有包容性。
09:29
Because for way too long,
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因為我們已經讓
09:31
we have left the big financial players on their own.
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這些金融巨頭獨霸太久了,
09:35
It's time to give them some company.
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該是介入的時候了。
09:38
Thank you.
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謝謝。
09:40
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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