Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies

Translator: Olalla Murciego Rodríguez Reviewer: Alicia Ferreiro

Almost two years ago,

Fai dous anos

I was driving in my car in Germany,

conducía en Alemaña

and I turned on the radio.

e acendín a radio.

Europe at the time was in the middle

Por aquel entón Europa atopábase no medio

of the Euro crisis,

and all the headlines were about European countries

da Euro crise

e tódolos titulares falaban de que os países europeos

estaban a ser depreciados polas axencias de cualificación crediticia

getting downgraded by rating agencies

in the United States.

en Estados Unidos.

I listened and thought to myself,

Escutei e pensei

"What are these rating agencies,

"Quen son estas axencias

and why is everybody so upset about their work?"

e porqué o seu traballo anoxa a todos?"

Well, if you were sitting

Ben, se estiveses sentado

next to me in the car that day

o meu carón aquel día

and would have told me that I would devote

y me dixeses que iba pasar

the next years to trying to reform them,

os seguintes anos intentanto reformalas

obviously I would have called you crazy.

obviamente teriate chamado tolo.

But guess what's really crazy:

Pero o que é en verdade para tolear

é o modo no que funcionan estas axencias.

the way these rating agencies are run.

And I would like to explain to you

Vouvos explicar algo,

not only why it's time to change this,

non só o porqué é hora de cambiar isto

but also how we can do it.

senon cómo podemos facelo.

So let me tell you a little bit

Deixádeme contarvos un pouco

about what rating agencies really do.

sobre o que fan as axencias de cualificación.

As you would read a car magazine

Da misma forma que leerías unha revista de coches

before purchasing a new car

antes de comprar un coche

or taking a look at a product review

ou botaríades unha ollada a unha revisión de produtos

before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,

antes de escoller que tableta ou un teléfono mercar,

investors are reading ratings

os inversores len cualificacións crediticias

before they decide in which kind of product

antes de decidir en qué produto

they are investing their money.

van investir o seu diñeiro.

A rating can range from a so-called AAA,

A cualificación vai dende a chamada AAA,

which means it's a top-performing product,

que significa que ten un rendemento superior,

and it can go down to the level

ata o nivel máis baixo,

of the so-called BBB-,

coñecido como BBB-,

which means it's a fairly risky investment.

que significa que investir nese produto ten un risco alto.

Rating agencies are rating companies.

As axencias de cualificación son empresas de cualificación,

They are rating banks.

cualifican bancos,

They are rating even financial products

cualifican mesmo produtos financeiros

like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.

como os famosos valores garantidos polas hipotecas

But they can also rate countries,

pero tamén cualifican países,

and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,

son as chámadas cualificacións soberanas

and I would like to focus in particular

e gustaríame falar de estas en particular,

on these sovereign ratings.

destas cualificacións soberanas,

And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,

e podo dicir que según me escoitades

you're thinking,

estades a pensar,

so why should I really care about this, right?

¿Por qué tería que interesarme isto, non?

Be honest.

Seamos sinceros.

Well, ratings affect you.

Ben, as cualificacións aféctannos,

They affect all of us.

aféctannos a todos.

If a rating agency rates a country,

Cando unha axencia de cualificación valora un país,

it basically assesses and evaluates

basicamente analiza e avalía

a country's debt

a débeda dun país

and the ability and willingness of a country

e as posibilidades e decisión do país

to repay its debt.

para devolve-la débeda.

So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,

Polo tanto, cando unha axencia de cualificación desvaloriza un país,

the country has to pay more

o país ten que pagar máis

in order to borrow money

para poder pedir cartos

on the international markets.

dos mercados internacionais,

So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,

isto aféctavos coma cidadáns e pagadores de impostos

because you and your fellow countrymen

porque ti e os teus compatriotas

have to pony up more in order to borrow.

tedes que pagar máis para que vos poidan prestar.

But what if a country can't afford to pay more

¿Qué pasa cando un país non se pode permitir

because it's maybe too expensive?

pagar máis porque é moi caro?

Well, then the country has less available

Ben, entón o país ten menos dispoñibilidade

for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.

para outros servizos coma estradas, escolas ou seguridade social.

And this is the reason why you should care,

Por iso ten que importarvos,

because sovereign ratings affect everyone.

porque as cualificacións soberanas afectan a todos

And that is the reason why I believe

e por iso creo que

they should be defined as public goods.

deberían definirse coma bens públicos.

They should be transparent, accessible,

Deberían ser transparentes, accesibles

and available to everyone at no cost.

e dispoñibles para calquera sen coste algún.

But here's the situation:

Pero a situación e outra.

the rating agency market is dominated

O mercado das axencias de cualificación contrólano

by three players and three players only --

única e exclusivamente tres entidades:

Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --

Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch,

and we know whenever there is a market concentration,

e sabemos que en canto hai unha concentración de mercado

there is really no competition.

en verdade non hai competencia.

There is no incentive to improve

Non hai un motivo para millorar

the quality of your product.

a calidade do teu produto

And let's face it, the credit rating agencies have contributed,

e, sexamos honestos, as axencias de cualificación contribuíron

putting the global economy on the brink,

a leva-la economía mundial o límite

and yet they have to change the way they operate.

e teñen que cambia- la súa forma de operar.

The second point,

En segundo lugar,

would you really buy a car

¿COmprariades un coche

just based on the advice of the dealer?

seguindo só o consello do vendedor?

Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.

Obviamente non, ¿verdade? Sería irresponsable,

But that's actually what's going on

pero iso é o que está a pasar

in the rating agency sector every single day.

co sector das axencias de cualificación a diario.

The customers of these rating agencies,

Os clientes destas axencias de cualificación,

like countries or companies,

que son países ou empresas,

they are paying for their own ratings,

están a pagar polas súas propias avaliacións

and obviously this is creating

e obviamente isto está a crear

a conflict of interest.

un conflito de interese.

The third point is,

En terceiro lugar,

the rating agencies are not really telling us

as axencias de cualificación non nos din realmente

how they are coming up with their ratings,

cómo están a calcular isto,

but in this day and age,

cando nestes tempos que corren

you can't even sell a candy bar

non podes nin vender un chocolate

without listing everything that's inside.

sen enumerar o que contén

But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,

pero cas cualificacións, un elemento crucial dá nosa economía,

we really do not know

non coñecemos realmente

what all the different ingredients are.

os ingredientes que levan.

We are allowing the rating agencies

Estamos a permitir que as axencias de cualificación

to be intransparent about their work,

sexan opacas sobre o seu traballo

and we need to change this.

e isto e algo que temos que cambiar.

I think there is no doubt that the sector

Creo que non hai dúbida de que o sector

needs a complete overhaul,

precisa dunha visión completa

not just a trimming at the margins.

non meramente parcial.

I think it's time for a bold move.

Penso que é hora de dar un paso decisivo.

I think it's time to upgrade the system.

Penso que é hora de mellora-lo sistema.

And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation

Por iso en Bertelsmann Foundation

have invested a lot of time and effort

investimos moito tempo e esforzo

thinking about an alternative for the sector.

pensando nunha alternativa para este sector

And we have developed the first model

e desenvolvímo-lo primer modelo

for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,

de axencia de cualificación sen ánimo de lucro para riscos soberanos

and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.

e referímonos a ela polo seu acrónimo, INCRA.

INCRA would make a difference

INCRA fará unha diferencia

to the current system

no sistema actual

by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.

o engadir á mestura unha entidade sen ánimo de lucro.

It would be based on a nonprofit model

Basearase nun modelo sen ánimo de lucro

that would be based on a sustainable endowment.

que estase a basar nun financiamento sostible.

The endowment would create income

O financiamento crearía ingresos

that would allow us to run the operation,

que permitirían dirixi-las operacións,

to run the rating agency,

dirixi-la axencia

and it would also allow us

e tamén permitiría

to make our ratings publicly available.

face-las cualificacións públicas.

But this is not enough to make a difference, right?

Non obstante, isto non é dabondo para marcar unha diferencia,

INCRA would also be based on

INCRA tamén baseariase nunha

a very, very clear governance structure

estructura moi, moi clara de goberno

that would avoid any conflict of interest,

que evitaría calquer conflito de interese

and it would include many stakeholders from society.

e incluiría a moitos interesados da sociedade.

INCRA would not only be a European

INCRA non sería só unha axencia

or an American rating agency,

europea ou estadounidense,

it would be a truly international one,

sería unha verdadeira axencia internacional

in which, in particular, the emerging economies

na que, en particular as economías emerxentes

would have an equal interest, voice and representation.

terían un interese, voz e representación equitativos.

The second big difference that INCRA would make is

A segunda gran diferenza que INCRA faría é

that would it base its sovereign risk assessment

que basaría a súa avaliación de risco soberano

on a broader set of indicators.

nunha amplia gama de indicadores.

Think about it that way.

Mirádeo desta forma,

If we conduct a sovereign rating,

se diriximos unha cualificación soberana

we basically take a look at

estamos a ter basicamente unha visualización

the economic soil of a country,

do chan económico dun país,

its macroeconomic fundamentals.

os seus fundamentos macroeconómicos,

But we also have to ask the question,

pero tamén témonos que preguntar,

who is cultivating the economic soil

quén cultiva o chan económico

of a country, right?

dun país, ¿non?

Well, a country has many gardeners,

Ben, un país ten moitos xardineiros

and one of them is the government,

e un deles e o goberno

so we have to ask the question,

polo que nos temos que preguntar,

how is a country governed?

¿cómo se goberna un país?

How is it managed?

¿Cómo se está a dirixir?

And this is the reason why we have developed

Esta e a razón pola que desenvolvemos

what we call forward-looking indicators.

o que chamamos indicadores prospectivos.

These are indicators that give you

Hai indicadores que che dan

a much better read about

unha millor lectura sobre

the socioeconomic development of a country.

o desenrolo socioeconómico dun país.

I hope you would agree it's important for you to know

Espero que coincidades conmigo en que é importante saber

if your government is willing to invest in renewable energy and education.

se o noso goberno está disposto a investir en enerxías renovables e educación.

It's important for you to know

É imporante que saibades

if the government of your country

se o goberno do voso país

is able to manage a crisis,

é capaz de manexar unha crise,

if the government is finally able to implement

se o goberno é finalmente capaz de implementar

the reforms that it's promised.

as reformas que prometeu.

For example, if INCRA would rate

Por exemplo, se INCRA cualifica

South Africa right now,

Sudáfrica agora mesmo,

of course we would take a very, very close look

por suposto tería moi, moi en conta

at the youth unemployment of the country,

cal é a tasa nacional de desemprego de xente xóven:

the highest in the world.

a maior do mundo.

If over 70 percent of a country's population

Se aproximadamente un 70 por cento da poboación dun país

under the age of 35 is unemployed,

por debaixo de 35 anos está desempregada

of course this has a huge impact on the economy

por suposto ten un gran impacto na economía

today and even more so in the future.

hoxe e índa máis no futuro.

Well, our friends at Moody's,

Ben, os nosos amigos de Moody's,

Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us

Standard & Poor's e Fitch diríannos

we would take this into account as well.

que tamén teñen isto en conta

But guess what? We do not know

pero, ¿sabedes qué? Non sabemos

exactly how they will take this into account.

exactamente ata onde o teñen en conta.

And this leads me to the third big difference

Isto lévame a terceira gran diferenza

that INCRA would make.

que INCRA faría.

INCRA would not only release its ratings

INCRA non publicaría soamente as súas avaliacións,

but it would also release its indicators

tamén os seus indicadores

and methodology.

e metodoloxía.

So in contrast to the current system,

Polo que en comparación co sistema actual

INCRA would be fully transparent.

INCRA sería totalmente transparente.

So in a nutshell,

En resume,

INCRA would offer an alternative

INCRA ofrecería unha alternativa

to the current system of the big three rating agencies

ó sistema actual das tres grandes axencias

by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix

o engadir unha entidade nova e sen ánimo de lucro na ecuación,

that would increase the competition,

que incrementaría a competición

it would increase the transparency of the sector,

e incrementaría a transparencia no sector

and it would also increase the quality.

e tamén a equidade.

I can tell that sovereign ratings

Podo dicir que as avaliacións soberanas

may still look to you like this very small piece

poden semellar só un anaco

of this very complex global financial world,

do tan complexo mundo financiero

but I tell you it's a very important one,

pero dígovos que é un anaco moi importante,

and a very important one to fix,

e un moi importante a mañar.

because sovereign ratings affect all of us,

porque as avaliacións soberanas aféctannos a todos

and they should be addressed and should be defined

e deberían especificarse e definirse

as public goods.

coma bens públicos.

And this is why we are testing our model right now,

Por iso estamos a proba-lo noso modelo agora mesmo

and why we are trying to find out if it can

e estamos intentando descubrir se

bring together a group of able and willing actors

pode atraer un grupo de actores capaces e con ganas

to bring INCRA to life.

de darlle vida a INCRA.

I truly believe building up INCRA

Estou convencida de que crear INCRA

is in everyone's interest,

é en beneficio de todos

and that we have the unique opportunity right now

e que agora mesmo temo-la oportunidade única

to turn INCRA into a cornerstone

de converter INCRA nunha pedra angular

of a new, more inclusive financial system.

dun sistema financeiro novo e máis inclusivo

Because for way too long,

porque permitimos por moito tempo que

we have left the big financial players on their own.

as grandes entidades financeiras estivesen sóas.

It's time to give them some company.

É hora de facerlles compañía.

Thank you.

Gracias.

(Applause)

(Aplauso)