Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies

Prevoditelj: Davorin Jelačić Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

Almost two years ago,

Prije skoro dvije godine,

I was driving in my car in Germany,

vozila sam se automobilom u Njemačkoj

and I turned on the radio.

i uključila sam radio.

Europe at the time was in the middle

Europa je u to doba bila

of the Euro crisis,

usred krize s eurom

and all the headlines were about European countries

i svi su naslovi bili o državama kojima rejting snižavaju

getting downgraded by rating agencies

rejting agencije

in the United States.

iz Sjedinjenih Država.

I listened and thought to myself,

Slušala sam i pitala se,

"What are these rating agencies,

"Što su te rejting agencije

and why is everybody so upset about their work?"

i zašto se svi uzrujavaju oko njihovog rada?"

Well, if you were sitting

Da ste toga dana

next to me in the car that day

sjedili do mene u autu

and would have told me that I would devote

i rekli mi da ću posvetiti

the next years to trying to reform them,

naredne godine u nastojanju da ih reformiram,

obviously I would have called you crazy.

naravno da bih vas proglasila ludim.

But guess what's really crazy:

No, evo što je doista ludo:

the way these rating agencies are run.

način na koji se upravlja tim agencijama.

And I would like to explain to you

Voljela bih vam objasniti

not only why it's time to change this,

ne samo zašto je vrijeme da to promijenimo,

but also how we can do it.

već i kako to možemo postići.

So let me tell you a little bit

Dopustite da vam kažem nešto o tome

about what rating agencies really do.

što rejting agencije zapravo rade.

As you would read a car magazine

Kao što ćete pročitati automobilski časopis

before purchasing a new car

prije nego što kupite auto,

or taking a look at a product review

ili baciti pogled na ocjenu proizvoda

before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,

prije odluke o nabavci kakvog tableta ili telefona,

investors are reading ratings

ulagači čitaju rejtinge

before they decide in which kind of product

prije odluke u koju vrstu proizvoda

they are investing their money.

će investirati svoj novac.

A rating can range from a so-called AAA,

Rejting može biti u rasponu od takozvanog AAA,

which means it's a top-performing product,

što znači da je riječ o vrhunskom ulaganju,

and it can go down to the level

pa naniže, sve do razine

of the so-called BBB-,

takozvanog BBB,

which means it's a fairly risky investment.

što označava prilično rizičnu investiciju.

Rating agencies are rating companies.

Rejting agencije daju rejting kompanijama.

They are rating banks.

Daju rejting bankama.

They are rating even financial products

Daju rejting čak i financijskim proizvodima

like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.

kao što su ozloglašene hipotekarne vrijednosnice.

But they can also rate countries,

Ali one mogu dati rejting i zemljama,

and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,

i ti se rejtinzi nazivaju rejtinzima suvereniteta,

and I would like to focus in particular

a ja bih se htjela prvenstveno usredotočiti

on these sovereign ratings.

na te rejtinge suvereniteta.

And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,

Već vidim, dok me sada slušate,

you're thinking,

mislite:

so why should I really care about this, right?

no, zašto bih ja o tome brinuo, zar ne?

Be honest.

Budite iskreni.

Well, ratings affect you.

Pa, rejtinzi utječu na vas.

They affect all of us.

Utječu na sve nas.

If a rating agency rates a country,

Ako rejting agencija ocijeni zemlju,

it basically assesses and evaluates

ona zapravo analizira i procjenjuje

a country's debt

dug države

and the ability and willingness of a country

i njenu mogućnost i spremnost

to repay its debt.

da taj dug otplati.

So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,

Ako rejting agencija zemlji obori rejting,

the country has to pay more

država mora platiti više

in order to borrow money

kako bi posudila novac

on the international markets.

na međunarodnom tržištu.

So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,

To, dakle, utječe na vas kao građanina i poreznog obveznika,

because you and your fellow countrymen

jer vi i vaši sugrađani

have to pony up more in order to borrow.

morat ćete platiti više kako biste posudili.

But what if a country can't afford to pay more

No, što ako si zemlja ne može priuštiti platiti više

because it's maybe too expensive?

jer je možda kredit preskup?

Well, then the country has less available

Tada će joj ostati manje na raspolaganju

for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.

za druge usluge, poput cesta, škola, zdravstvenog osiguranja.

And this is the reason why you should care,

I zato biste o ovome trebali voditi računa,

because sovereign ratings affect everyone.

jer rejting suvereniteta utječe na svakoga.

And that is the reason why I believe

Iz toga razloga ja mislim

they should be defined as public goods.

da te agencije treba definirati kao javno dobro.

They should be transparent, accessible,

One bi morale biti transparentne, dostupne

and available to everyone at no cost.

i na usluzi svakome, bez troška.

But here's the situation:

Ali situacija je sljedeća:

the rating agency market is dominated

na tržištu rejting agencija dominiraju

by three players and three players only --

tri igrača, samo tri igrača --

Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --

Standard & Poor's, Moody's i Fitch --

and we know whenever there is a market concentration,

a znamo da gdjegod imamo tržišnu koncentraciju,

there is really no competition.

zapravo nemamo konkurenciju.

There is no incentive to improve

Nema poticaja za poboljšanje

the quality of your product.

kvalitete proizvoda.

And let's face it, the credit rating agencies have contributed,

I istini za volju, kreditne rejting agencije su doprinijele

putting the global economy on the brink,

u guranju svjetske ekonomije na rub ponora,

and yet they have to change the way they operate.

a tek trebaju promijeniti način svoga rada.

The second point,

Drugo,

would you really buy a car

da li biste zaista kupili automobil

just based on the advice of the dealer?

samo na temelju preporuke prodavača?

Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.

Jasno da ne, zar ne? To bi bilo neodgovorno.

But that's actually what's going on

Ali upravo se to događa

in the rating agency sector every single day.

u sektoru rejting agencija svakoga dana.

The customers of these rating agencies,

Korisnici usluga rejting agencija

like countries or companies,

kao što su države ili poduzeća,

they are paying for their own ratings,

plaćaju svoj vlastiti rejting

and obviously this is creating

i to očito dovodi

a conflict of interest.

do sukoba interesa.

The third point is,

Treće,

the rating agencies are not really telling us

rejting agencije nam baš i ne govore

how they are coming up with their ratings,

kako su izračunale svoje rejtinge,

but in this day and age,

ali u naše doba

you can't even sell a candy bar

ne možete prodavati ni čokoladicu

without listing everything that's inside.

bez da prikažete sve njene sastojke.

But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,

No za rejtinge, suštinski element naše ekonomije,

we really do not know

mi zaista ne znamo

what all the different ingredients are.

koji su to različiti sastojci.

We are allowing the rating agencies

Dopuštamo rejting agencijama

to be intransparent about their work,

da budu netransparentne u svojem radu,

and we need to change this.

i to moramo promijeniti.

I think there is no doubt that the sector

Mislim da nema dvojbe da se sektor

needs a complete overhaul,

mora potpuno reorganizirati,

not just a trimming at the margins.

ne samo potkratiti na rubovima.

I think it's time for a bold move.

Mislim da je vrijeme za odvažan potez.

I think it's time to upgrade the system.

Mislim da je vrijeme za poboljšanje sustava.

And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation

I zato mi pri Bertelsmann Foundation

have invested a lot of time and effort

ulažemo puno vremena i napora

thinking about an alternative for the sector.

razmišljajući o alternativi za taj sektor.

And we have developed the first model

Razvili smo prvi model

for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,

neprofitne rejting agencije za rizik suvereniteta

and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.

i zovemo ga po akronimu, INCRA.

INCRA would make a difference

INCRA bi promijenila

to the current system

postojeći sustav

by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.

uključujući još jednog, neprofitnog, igrača u splet.

It would be based on a nonprofit model

Riječ je o neprofitnom modelu

that would be based on a sustainable endowment.

koji bi se temeljio na održivim donacijama.

The endowment would create income

Donacije bi stvorile prihod

that would allow us to run the operation,

koji bi nam omogućio da upravljamo poslovnim aktivnostima,

to run the rating agency,

vodimo rejting agenciju,

and it would also allow us

i omogućile bi nam

to make our ratings publicly available.

da svoje rejtinge učinimo javno dostupnima.

But this is not enough to make a difference, right?

Ali to nije dovoljno za stvarnu razliku, zar ne?

INCRA would also be based on

INCRA bi se također temeljila

a very, very clear governance structure

na vrlo, vrlo jasnoj upravljačkoj strukturi

that would avoid any conflict of interest,

koja bi onemogućila bilo kakav sukob interesa,

and it would include many stakeholders from society.

i uključila bi mnoge društvene subjekte.

INCRA would not only be a European

INCRA ne bi bila samo europska

or an American rating agency,

ili američka rejting agencija.

it would be a truly international one,

Bila bi prava međunarodna agencija,

in which, in particular, the emerging economies

u kojoj bi posebno rastuća gospodarstva

would have an equal interest, voice and representation.

imala jednak interes, glas i bila jednako zastupljena.

The second big difference that INCRA would make is

Druga je velika razlika koju bi INCRA stvorila

that would it base its sovereign risk assessment

to što bi temeljila procjenu rizika suvereniteta

on a broader set of indicators.

na većem broju indikatora.

Think about it that way.

Gledajte na to ovako:

If we conduct a sovereign rating,

ako provodimo rejting suvereniteta,

we basically take a look at

zapravo promatramo

the economic soil of a country,

gospodarsko tlo države,

its macroeconomic fundamentals.

njene osnovne makroekonomske čimbenike.

But we also have to ask the question,

Ali moramo si postaviti i pitanje

who is cultivating the economic soil

tko oplođuje ekonomsko tlo

of a country, right?

te države, zar ne?

Well, a country has many gardeners,

Država ima mnogo baštovana

and one of them is the government,

i jedan od njih je vlada,

so we have to ask the question,

pa se moramo pitati

how is a country governed?

kako se upravlja zemljom?

How is it managed?

Kako se rukovodi?

And this is the reason why we have developed

Iz toga smo razloga osmislili

what we call forward-looking indicators.

ono što zovemo indikatorima budućeg razvoja.

These are indicators that give you

Ti vam indikatori pružaju

a much better read about

puno bolji uvid

the socioeconomic development of a country.

u socioekonomski razvoj zemlje.

I hope you would agree it's important for you to know

Nadam se da ćete se složiti da vam je važno znati

if your government is willing to invest in renewable energy and education.

je li vaša vlada voljna ulagati u obnovljive izvore energije i obrazovanje.

It's important for you to know

Važno vam je znati

if the government of your country

je li vlada vaše zemlje

is able to manage a crisis,

u stanju upravljati krizom,

if the government is finally able to implement

je li, napokon, vlada u stanju provesti

the reforms that it's promised.

reforme koje je obećala.

For example, if INCRA would rate

Na primjer, ako bi INCRA

South Africa right now,

sada dala rejting Južnoj Africi,

of course we would take a very, very close look

naravno da bismo vrlo pozorno promotrili

at the youth unemployment of the country,

nezaposlenost mladih u toj zemlji,

the highest in the world.

koja je najveća na svijetu.

If over 70 percent of a country's population

Ako je preko 70 posto stanovnika

under the age of 35 is unemployed,

mlađih od 35 godina nezaposleno,

of course this has a huge impact on the economy

naravno da to ima silan učinak na gospodarstvo

today and even more so in the future.

danas, a još više u budućnosti.

Well, our friends at Moody's,

Naši prijatelji u agencijama Moody's,

Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us

Standard & Poor's i Fitch će nam reći

we would take this into account as well.

da bi i oni to uzeli u obzir.

But guess what? We do not know

Ali znate što? Ne znamo

exactly how they will take this into account.

kako bi točno oni to uzeli u obzir.

And this leads me to the third big difference

I time dolazim do treće velike razlike

that INCRA would make.

koju bi INCRA uvela.

INCRA would not only release its ratings

INCRA ne bi samo objavila rejtinge,

but it would also release its indicators

već bi objavila i indikatore,

and methodology.

kao i metodologiju.

So in contrast to the current system,

Nasuprot današnjem sustavu,

INCRA would be fully transparent.

INCRA bi bila potpuno transparentna.

So in a nutshell,

U biti,

INCRA would offer an alternative

INCRA bi pružila alternativu

to the current system of the big three rating agencies

sadašnjem sustavu s tri velike rejting agencije,

by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix

tako što bi uključila novog, neprofitnog igrača

that would increase the competition,

koji bi povećao konkurenciju,

it would increase the transparency of the sector,

poboljšao transparentnost sektora,

and it would also increase the quality.

i povećao kvalitetu.

I can tell that sovereign ratings

Možda vam rejtinzi suvereniteta

may still look to you like this very small piece

i dalje izgledaju kao vrlo malen dio

of this very complex global financial world,

izrazito kompleksnog financijskog svijeta,

but I tell you it's a very important one,

ali velim vam da je vrlo važan,

and a very important one to fix,

i da ga je vrlo važno popraviti,

because sovereign ratings affect all of us,

jer rejtinzi suvereniteta utječu na sve nas,

and they should be addressed and should be defined

i trebalo bi ih promatrati i definirati

as public goods.

kao javno dobro.

And this is why we are testing our model right now,

Zbog toga mi sada testiramo naš model,

and why we are trying to find out if it can

i pokušavamo otkriti može li on

bring together a group of able and willing actors

okupiti skupinu sposobnih i voljnih sudionika

to bring INCRA to life.

koji će realizirati INCRA-u.

I truly believe building up INCRA

Zaista vjerujem da je uspostava INCRA-e

is in everyone's interest,

u svačijem interesu,

and that we have the unique opportunity right now

i da sada imamo jedinstvenu priliku

to turn INCRA into a cornerstone

da INCRA postane kamen temeljac

of a new, more inclusive financial system.

novoga, obuhvatnijega financijskog sustava.

Because for way too long,

Zato što smo predugo

we have left the big financial players on their own.

pustili da veliki financijski igrači postupaju po svome.

It's time to give them some company.

Vrijeme je da im damo društvo.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)