Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies

83,665 views ・ 2014-02-28

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:12
Almost two years ago,
0
12577
1855
00:14
I was driving in my car in Germany,
1
14432
2391
00:16
and I turned on the radio.
2
16823
2516
00:19
Europe at the time was in the middle
3
19339
2207
00:21
of the Euro crisis,
4
21546
1443
00:22
and all the headlines were about European countries
5
22989
4246
00:27
getting downgraded by rating agencies
6
27235
2841
00:30
in the United States.
7
30076
1854
00:31
I listened and thought to myself,
8
31930
2109
00:34
"What are these rating agencies,
9
34039
2072
00:36
and why is everybody so upset about their work?"
10
36111
3453
00:39
Well, if you were sitting
11
39564
2052
00:41
next to me in the car that day
12
41616
1761
00:43
and would have told me that I would devote
13
43377
2562
00:45
the next years to trying to reform them,
14
45939
3244
00:49
obviously I would have called you crazy.
15
49183
3948
00:53
But guess what's really crazy:
16
53131
1902
00:55
the way these rating agencies are run.
17
55033
3029
00:58
And I would like to explain to you
18
58062
1643
00:59
not only why it's time to change this,
19
59705
2101
01:01
but also how we can do it.
20
61806
3178
01:04
So let me tell you a little bit
21
64984
1654
01:06
about what rating agencies really do.
22
66638
3578
01:10
As you would read a car magazine
23
70216
2384
01:12
before purchasing a new car
24
72600
1802
01:14
or taking a look at a product review
25
74402
2092
01:16
before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,
26
76494
3877
01:20
investors are reading ratings
27
80371
2200
01:22
before they decide in which kind of product
28
82571
3313
01:25
they are investing their money.
29
85884
2088
01:27
A rating can range from a so-called AAA,
30
87972
2811
01:30
which means it's a top-performing product,
31
90783
2943
01:33
and it can go down to the level
32
93726
2527
01:36
of the so-called BBB-,
33
96253
3014
01:39
which means it's a fairly risky investment.
34
99267
3425
01:42
Rating agencies are rating companies.
35
102692
2561
01:45
They are rating banks.
36
105253
1250
01:46
They are rating even financial products
37
106503
2364
01:48
like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.
38
108867
3075
01:51
But they can also rate countries,
39
111942
2077
01:54
and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,
40
114019
2748
01:56
and I would like to focus in particular
41
116767
2357
01:59
on these sovereign ratings.
42
119124
2626
02:01
And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,
43
121750
2406
02:04
you're thinking,
44
124156
1459
02:05
so why should I really care about this, right?
45
125615
2608
02:08
Be honest.
46
128223
1585
02:09
Well, ratings affect you.
47
129808
2289
02:12
They affect all of us.
48
132097
2162
02:14
If a rating agency rates a country,
49
134259
3305
02:17
it basically assesses and evaluates
50
137564
3275
02:20
a country's debt
51
140839
1401
02:22
and the ability and willingness of a country
52
142240
2349
02:24
to repay its debt.
53
144589
2341
02:26
So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,
54
146930
2933
02:29
the country has to pay more
55
149863
2077
02:31
in order to borrow money
56
151940
1607
02:33
on the international markets.
57
153547
1561
02:35
So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,
58
155108
2801
02:37
because you and your fellow countrymen
59
157909
2363
02:40
have to pony up more in order to borrow.
60
160272
3790
02:44
But what if a country can't afford to pay more
61
164062
2816
02:46
because it's maybe too expensive?
62
166878
2837
02:49
Well, then the country has less available
63
169715
2935
02:52
for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.
64
172650
3662
02:56
And this is the reason why you should care,
65
176312
2439
02:58
because sovereign ratings affect everyone.
66
178751
3046
03:01
And that is the reason why I believe
67
181797
1661
03:03
they should be defined as public goods.
68
183458
2956
03:06
They should be transparent, accessible,
69
186414
2811
03:09
and available to everyone at no cost.
70
189226
4581
03:13
But here's the situation:
71
193807
2046
03:15
the rating agency market is dominated
72
195853
2144
03:17
by three players and three players only --
73
197997
2973
03:20
Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --
74
200970
2779
03:23
and we know whenever there is a market concentration,
75
203749
2957
03:26
there is really no competition.
76
206706
1799
03:28
There is no incentive to improve
77
208505
2277
03:30
the quality of your product.
78
210782
2317
03:33
And let's face it, the credit rating agencies have contributed,
79
213099
4249
03:37
putting the global economy on the brink,
80
217348
2845
03:40
and yet they have to change the way they operate.
81
220193
3785
03:43
The second point,
82
223978
1873
03:45
would you really buy a car
83
225851
2022
03:47
just based on the advice of the dealer?
84
227873
3486
03:51
Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.
85
231359
3013
03:54
But that's actually what's going on
86
234372
2593
03:56
in the rating agency sector every single day.
87
236965
3878
04:00
The customers of these rating agencies,
88
240843
2749
04:03
like countries or companies,
89
243592
2487
04:06
they are paying for their own ratings,
90
246079
2426
04:08
and obviously this is creating
91
248505
1998
04:10
a conflict of interest.
92
250503
2871
04:13
The third point is,
93
253374
2516
04:15
the rating agencies are not really telling us
94
255890
2915
04:18
how they are coming up with their ratings,
95
258805
2638
04:21
but in this day and age,
96
261443
1840
04:23
you can't even sell a candy bar
97
263283
1876
04:25
without listing everything that's inside.
98
265159
3048
04:28
But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,
99
268207
3684
04:31
we really do not know
100
271891
1669
04:33
what all the different ingredients are.
101
273560
2482
04:36
We are allowing the rating agencies
102
276042
1946
04:37
to be intransparent about their work,
103
277988
2702
04:40
and we need to change this.
104
280690
2062
04:42
I think there is no doubt that the sector
105
282752
2480
04:45
needs a complete overhaul,
106
285232
1717
04:46
not just a trimming at the margins.
107
286949
2510
04:49
I think it's time for a bold move.
108
289459
2223
04:51
I think it's time to upgrade the system.
109
291682
3116
04:54
And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation
110
294798
2562
04:57
have invested a lot of time and effort
111
297360
2822
05:00
thinking about an alternative for the sector.
112
300182
3731
05:03
And we have developed the first model
113
303913
2599
05:06
for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,
114
306512
5158
05:11
and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.
115
311670
4456
05:16
INCRA would make a difference
116
316126
1398
05:17
to the current system
117
317524
2427
05:19
by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.
118
319951
4202
05:24
It would be based on a nonprofit model
119
324153
3449
05:27
that would be based on a sustainable endowment.
120
327602
3644
05:31
The endowment would create income
121
331246
2124
05:33
that would allow us to run the operation,
122
333370
2417
05:35
to run the rating agency,
123
335787
1702
05:37
and it would also allow us
124
337489
2050
05:39
to make our ratings publicly available.
125
339539
3685
05:43
But this is not enough to make a difference, right?
126
343224
2703
05:45
INCRA would also be based on
127
345927
1873
05:47
a very, very clear governance structure
128
347800
2578
05:50
that would avoid any conflict of interest,
129
350378
2922
05:53
and it would include many stakeholders from society.
130
353300
4869
05:58
INCRA would not only be a European
131
358169
2549
06:00
or an American rating agency,
132
360718
2131
06:02
it would be a truly international one,
133
362849
2364
06:05
in which, in particular, the emerging economies
134
365213
3117
06:08
would have an equal interest, voice and representation.
135
368330
5124
06:13
The second big difference that INCRA would make is
136
373454
3430
06:16
that would it base its sovereign risk assessment
137
376884
2978
06:19
on a broader set of indicators.
138
379862
2696
06:22
Think about it that way.
139
382558
1901
06:24
If we conduct a sovereign rating,
140
384459
1844
06:26
we basically take a look at
141
386303
1617
06:27
the economic soil of a country,
142
387920
2667
06:30
its macroeconomic fundamentals.
143
390587
2585
06:33
But we also have to ask the question,
144
393172
2178
06:35
who is cultivating the economic soil
145
395350
2901
06:38
of a country, right?
146
398266
1920
06:40
Well, a country has many gardeners,
147
400186
2160
06:42
and one of them is the government,
148
402346
1818
06:44
so we have to ask the question,
149
404164
2045
06:46
how is a country governed?
150
406209
1314
06:47
How is it managed?
151
407523
1586
06:49
And this is the reason why we have developed
152
409109
2170
06:51
what we call forward-looking indicators.
153
411279
3091
06:54
These are indicators that give you
154
414370
1667
06:56
a much better read about
155
416037
1507
06:57
the socioeconomic development of a country.
156
417544
3551
07:01
I hope you would agree it's important for you to know
157
421095
2758
07:03
if your government is willing to invest in renewable energy and education.
158
423853
7168
07:11
It's important for you to know
159
431034
1725
07:12
if the government of your country
160
432759
2003
07:14
is able to manage a crisis,
161
434762
1962
07:16
if the government is finally able to implement
162
436724
2981
07:19
the reforms that it's promised.
163
439705
3728
07:23
For example, if INCRA would rate
164
443433
1867
07:25
South Africa right now,
165
445300
1954
07:27
of course we would take a very, very close look
166
447254
3457
07:30
at the youth unemployment of the country,
167
450711
2300
07:33
the highest in the world.
168
453011
2538
07:35
If over 70 percent of a country's population
169
455549
3444
07:38
under the age of 35 is unemployed,
170
458993
3591
07:42
of course this has a huge impact on the economy
171
462584
3096
07:45
today and even more so in the future.
172
465680
4294
07:49
Well, our friends at Moody's,
173
469974
2275
07:52
Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us
174
472249
2323
07:54
we would take this into account as well.
175
474572
3033
07:57
But guess what? We do not know
176
477605
1949
07:59
exactly how they will take this into account.
177
479554
3017
08:02
And this leads me to the third big difference
178
482571
2351
08:04
that INCRA would make.
179
484922
1704
08:06
INCRA would not only release its ratings
180
486626
2794
08:09
but it would also release its indicators
181
489420
2971
08:12
and methodology.
182
492391
1662
08:14
So in contrast to the current system,
183
494053
2563
08:16
INCRA would be fully transparent.
184
496616
3515
08:20
So in a nutshell,
185
500131
1839
08:21
INCRA would offer an alternative
186
501970
2202
08:24
to the current system of the big three rating agencies
187
504172
3426
08:27
by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix
188
507598
3965
08:31
that would increase the competition,
189
511563
2404
08:33
it would increase the transparency of the sector,
190
513967
2563
08:36
and it would also increase the quality.
191
516530
2805
08:39
I can tell that sovereign ratings
192
519335
1968
08:41
may still look to you like this very small piece
193
521303
3224
08:44
of this very complex global financial world,
194
524527
4275
08:48
but I tell you it's a very important one,
195
528802
2440
08:51
and a very important one to fix,
196
531242
2442
08:53
because sovereign ratings affect all of us,
197
533684
3143
08:56
and they should be addressed and should be defined
198
536827
3538
09:00
as public goods.
199
540365
1460
09:01
And this is why we are testing our model right now,
200
541825
2884
09:04
and why we are trying to find out if it can
201
544709
2927
09:07
bring together a group of able and willing actors
202
547636
3203
09:10
to bring INCRA to life.
203
550839
2650
09:13
I truly believe building up INCRA
204
553489
2611
09:16
is in everyone's interest,
205
556100
2391
09:18
and that we have the unique opportunity right now
206
558491
3570
09:22
to turn INCRA into a cornerstone
207
562061
2569
09:24
of a new, more inclusive financial system.
208
564630
4395
09:29
Because for way too long,
209
569025
2568
09:31
we have left the big financial players on their own.
210
571593
3692
09:35
It's time to give them some company.
211
575285
2796
09:38
Thank you.
212
578081
2034
09:40
(Applause)
213
580115
4000
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7