Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies

83,681 views ・ 2014-02-28

TED


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Almost two years ago,
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I was driving in my car in Germany,
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and I turned on the radio.
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Europe at the time was in the middle
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of the Euro crisis,
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and all the headlines were about European countries
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getting downgraded by rating agencies
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in the United States.
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I listened and thought to myself,
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"What are these rating agencies,
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and why is everybody so upset about their work?"
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Well, if you were sitting
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next to me in the car that day
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and would have told me that I would devote
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the next years to trying to reform them,
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obviously I would have called you crazy.
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But guess what's really crazy:
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the way these rating agencies are run.
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And I would like to explain to you
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not only why it's time to change this,
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but also how we can do it.
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So let me tell you a little bit
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about what rating agencies really do.
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As you would read a car magazine
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before purchasing a new car
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or taking a look at a product review
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before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,
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investors are reading ratings
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before they decide in which kind of product
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they are investing their money.
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A rating can range from a so-called AAA,
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which means it's a top-performing product,
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and it can go down to the level
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of the so-called BBB-,
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which means it's a fairly risky investment.
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Rating agencies are rating companies.
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They are rating banks.
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They are rating even financial products
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like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.
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But they can also rate countries,
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and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,
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and I would like to focus in particular
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on these sovereign ratings.
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And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,
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you're thinking,
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so why should I really care about this, right?
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Be honest.
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Well, ratings affect you.
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They affect all of us.
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If a rating agency rates a country,
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it basically assesses and evaluates
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a country's debt
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and the ability and willingness of a country
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to repay its debt.
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So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,
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the country has to pay more
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in order to borrow money
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on the international markets.
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So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,
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because you and your fellow countrymen
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have to pony up more in order to borrow.
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But what if a country can't afford to pay more
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because it's maybe too expensive?
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Well, then the country has less available
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for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.
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And this is the reason why you should care,
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because sovereign ratings affect everyone.
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And that is the reason why I believe
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they should be defined as public goods.
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They should be transparent, accessible,
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and available to everyone at no cost.
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But here's the situation:
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the rating agency market is dominated
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by three players and three players only --
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Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --
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and we know whenever there is a market concentration,
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there is really no competition.
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There is no incentive to improve
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the quality of your product.
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And let's face it, the credit rating agencies have contributed,
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putting the global economy on the brink,
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and yet they have to change the way they operate.
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The second point,
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would you really buy a car
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just based on the advice of the dealer?
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Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.
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But that's actually what's going on
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in the rating agency sector every single day.
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The customers of these rating agencies,
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like countries or companies,
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they are paying for their own ratings,
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and obviously this is creating
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a conflict of interest.
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The third point is,
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the rating agencies are not really telling us
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how they are coming up with their ratings,
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but in this day and age,
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you can't even sell a candy bar
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without listing everything that's inside.
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But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,
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we really do not know
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what all the different ingredients are.
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We are allowing the rating agencies
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to be intransparent about their work,
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and we need to change this.
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I think there is no doubt that the sector
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needs a complete overhaul,
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not just a trimming at the margins.
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I think it's time for a bold move.
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I think it's time to upgrade the system.
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And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation
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have invested a lot of time and effort
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thinking about an alternative for the sector.
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And we have developed the first model
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for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,
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and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.
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INCRA would make a difference
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to the current system
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by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.
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It would be based on a nonprofit model
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that would be based on a sustainable endowment.
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The endowment would create income
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that would allow us to run the operation,
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to run the rating agency,
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and it would also allow us
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to make our ratings publicly available.
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But this is not enough to make a difference, right?
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INCRA would also be based on
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a very, very clear governance structure
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that would avoid any conflict of interest,
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and it would include many stakeholders from society.
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INCRA would not only be a European
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or an American rating agency,
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it would be a truly international one,
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in which, in particular, the emerging economies
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would have an equal interest, voice and representation.
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The second big difference that INCRA would make is
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that would it base its sovereign risk assessment
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on a broader set of indicators.
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Think about it that way.
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If we conduct a sovereign rating,
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we basically take a look at
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the economic soil of a country,
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its macroeconomic fundamentals.
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But we also have to ask the question,
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who is cultivating the economic soil
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of a country, right?
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Well, a country has many gardeners,
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and one of them is the government,
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so we have to ask the question,
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how is a country governed?
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How is it managed?
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And this is the reason why we have developed
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what we call forward-looking indicators.
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These are indicators that give you
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a much better read about
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the socioeconomic development of a country.
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I hope you would agree it's important for you to know
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if your government is willing to invest in renewable energy and education.
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It's important for you to know
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if the government of your country
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is able to manage a crisis,
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if the government is finally able to implement
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the reforms that it's promised.
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For example, if INCRA would rate
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South Africa right now,
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of course we would take a very, very close look
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at the youth unemployment of the country,
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the highest in the world.
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If over 70 percent of a country's population
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under the age of 35 is unemployed,
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of course this has a huge impact on the economy
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today and even more so in the future.
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Well, our friends at Moody's,
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Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us
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we would take this into account as well.
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But guess what? We do not know
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exactly how they will take this into account.
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And this leads me to the third big difference
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that INCRA would make.
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INCRA would not only release its ratings
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but it would also release its indicators
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and methodology.
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So in contrast to the current system,
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INCRA would be fully transparent.
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So in a nutshell,
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INCRA would offer an alternative
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to the current system of the big three rating agencies
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by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix
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that would increase the competition,
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it would increase the transparency of the sector,
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and it would also increase the quality.
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I can tell that sovereign ratings
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may still look to you like this very small piece
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of this very complex global financial world,
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but I tell you it's a very important one,
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and a very important one to fix,
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because sovereign ratings affect all of us,
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and they should be addressed and should be defined
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as public goods.
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And this is why we are testing our model right now,
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and why we are trying to find out if it can
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bring together a group of able and willing actors
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to bring INCRA to life.
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I truly believe building up INCRA
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is in everyone's interest,
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and that we have the unique opportunity right now
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to turn INCRA into a cornerstone
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of a new, more inclusive financial system.
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Because for way too long,
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we have left the big financial players on their own.
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It's time to give them some company.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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