What will future jobs look like? | Andrew McAfee

1,261,691 views ・ 2013-06-20

TED


Ju lutemi, klikoni dy herë mbi titrat në anglisht më poshtë për të luajtur videon.

00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
0
0
7000
Translator: Alisa Xholi Reviewer: Helena Bedalli
00:12
The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,
1
12328
2949
Shkrimtarja George Eliot na terhoqi vemendjen se,
00:15
among all forms of mistake,
2
15277
2067
nga te gjitha format e gabimit
00:17
prophesy is the most gratuitous.
3
17344
2363
profesia eshte me e lira.
00:19
The person that we would all acknowledge
4
19707
1848
Personi qe te gjithe do njihnim
00:21
as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.
5
21555
4302
si homologu i saj i shekullit te 20-te, Yogi Berra, ra dakort me te.
00:25
He said, "It's tough to make predictions,
6
25857
1865
Ai tha, "Eshte e veshtire te parashikosh,
00:27
especially about the future."
7
27722
2736
sidomos mbi te ardhmen."
00:30
I'm going to ignore their cautions
8
30458
1811
Une do anashkaloj paralajmerimet e tyre
00:32
and make one very specific forecast.
9
32269
1973
dhe do bej nje parashikim shume specifik.
00:34
In the world that we are creating very quickly,
10
34242
2640
Ne boten qe ne po krijojme shume shpejt,
00:36
we're going to see more and more things
11
36882
1713
do shohim gjithnje e me shume gjera
00:38
that look like science fiction,
12
38595
1725
qe ngjajne me fantashkence,
00:40
and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.
13
40320
3116
dhe shume pak gjera qe ngjajne me pune.
00:43
Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,
14
43436
2752
Makinat tona shume shpejt do drejtohen vete
00:46
which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.
15
46188
2696
qe do te thote se do na duhen me pak shofera kamioni.
00:48
We're going to hook Siri up to Watson
16
48884
2121
Do lidhim Siri me Watson
00:51
and use that to automate a lot of the work
17
51005
2597
dhe ta perdorim ate per te automatizuar shume pune
00:53
that's currently done by customer service reps
18
53602
2226
qe momentalisht behen nga perfaqesues te sherbimit te klientit
00:55
and troubleshooters and diagnosers,
19
55828
2904
dhe ekspert dhe diagnostikues,
00:58
and we're already taking R2D2,
20
58732
2256
dhe tashme po marim R2D2,
01:00
painting him orange, and putting him to work
21
60988
3240
te lyer portokalli, dhe e veme ne pune
01:04
carrying shelves around warehouses,
22
64228
2549
per te mbajtur rafte ne magazina,
01:06
which means we need a lot fewer people
23
66777
2075
qe do te thote se na duhen me pak njerez
01:08
to be walking up and down those aisles.
24
68852
1966
per te ecur larte e poshte neper ato korridore.
01:10
Now, for about 200 years,
25
70818
3802
Per rreth 200 vjet,
01:14
people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --
26
74620
2183
njerezit kane thene ekzaktesisht ate cka po ju them une--
01:16
the age of technological unemployment is at hand —
27
76803
2817
mosha e papunesise teknologjike eshte afer--
01:19
starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain
28
79620
2415
duke filluar me Ludditet qe shkaterruan tezgjahet ne Britani
01:22
just about two centuries ago,
29
82035
1896
rreth dy shekuj me pare,
01:23
and they have been wrong.
30
83931
2032
dhe eshte e gabuar.
01:25
Our economies in the developed world have coasted along
31
85963
2817
Ekonomite tona ne boten e zhvilliuar kane arritur
01:28
on something pretty close to full employment.
32
88780
1934
ne dicka qe ngjason me punesim te plote.
01:30
Which brings up a critical question:
33
90714
2099
E cila sjell nje pyetje kritike:
01:32
Why is this time different, if it really is?
34
92813
2926
Pse eshte ndryshe kete radhe, nese eshte vertet?
01:35
The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,
35
95739
2996
Arsyeja pse eshte ndryshe eshte sepse vitet e fundit
01:38
our machines have started demonstrating skills
36
98735
1895
makinerite tona kane filluar te demostrojne aftesi
01:40
they have never, ever had before:
37
100630
2625
qe nuk i kane pasur kurre me pare:
01:43
understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,
38
103255
3260
per te kuptuar, te folur, te degjuar, te shikuar,
01:46
answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.
39
106515
4213
per tu pergjigjur, te shkruar, dhe jane ne kerkim te aftesive te reja.
01:50
For example, mobile humanoid robots
40
110728
2570
Per shembull, robotet humanoid te levizshem
01:53
are still incredibly primitive,
41
113298
1947
jane akoma teper primitiv,
01:55
but the research arm of the Defense Department
42
115245
1838
por sektori i kerkimit ne Departamentin e Mbrojtjes
01:57
just launched a competition
43
117083
1515
sapo hapi nje konkurs
01:58
to have them do things like this,
44
118598
2314
per te arritur qe ata te bejne gjera si keto,
02:00
and if the track record is any guide,
45
120912
1733
dhe nese gjykojme nga publikimet e meparshme,
02:02
this competition is going to be successful.
46
122645
2399
ky konkurs do jete i suksesshem.
02:05
So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all
47
125044
3636
Kur shikoj perreth, mendoj se nuk eshte aspak e larget dita
02:08
when we're going to have androids
48
128680
2176
kur androidet
02:10
doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.
49
130856
2881
do te bejne shumicen e punes qe ne bejme tani.
02:13
And we're creating a world where there is going to be
50
133737
3758
Ne po ndertojme nje bote ku do te kete
02:17
more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.
51
137495
3685
shume e me shume teknologji dhe pak e me pak pune.
02:21
It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling
52
141180
2249
Eshte nje bote qe Erik Brynjolfsson dhe une e quajme
02:23
"the new machine age."
53
143429
1491
"Epoka e re e makines."
02:24
The thing to keep in mind is that
54
144920
2133
Dicka per tu mbajtur ne mendje eshte se
02:27
this is absolutely great news.
55
147053
2549
keto jane absolutisht lajme te mira.
02:29
This is the best economic news on the planet these days.
56
149602
3317
Keto jane lajmet me te mira ekonomike ne planet ne kete moment.
02:32
Not that there's a lot of competition, right?
57
152919
3529
Jo se ka shume kompeticion, apo jo?
02:36
This is the best economic news we have these days
58
156448
1899
Keto jane lajmet me te mira ekonomike keto dite
02:38
for two main reasons.
59
158347
1616
per dy arsye kryesore.
02:39
The first is, technological progress is what allows us
60
159963
2985
E para, eshte progresi teknologjik ai qe na lejon ne
02:42
to continue this amazing recent run that we're on
61
162948
3737
te vazhdojme kete vrap mahnites ne te cilen ndodhemi
02:46
where output goes up over time,
62
166685
2521
aty ku prodhimi rritet gjate kohes,
02:49
while at the same time, prices go down,
63
169206
3326
ndersa cmimet bien,
02:52
and volume and quality just continue to explode.
64
172532
4204
dhe sasia dhe cilesia thjesht vazhdojne te shperthejne.
02:56
Now, some people look at this and talk about
65
176736
2001
Disa njerez e shohin kete si
02:58
shallow materialism,
66
178737
1406
materialismin e ceket,
03:00
but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.
67
180143
2418
por kjo eshte absolutisht menyra e gabuar per ta pare ate.
03:02
This is abundance, which is exactly
68
182561
2495
Ky eshte bollek, qe eshte saktesisht
03:05
what we want our economic system to provide.
69
185056
3422
ajo qe duam qe te siguroje sistemi ekonomik.
03:08
The second reason that the new machine age
70
188478
3216
Arsyeja e dyte, qe epoka e re makines
03:11
is such great news is that, once the androids
71
191694
2306
eshte kaq lajm i mire eshte sepse, sapo androidet
03:14
start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,
72
194000
3252
te fillojne te kryejne pune, nuk do na duhet me ti bejme ne
03:17
and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.
73
197252
3756
dhe do te lirohemi nga angaria dhe punet e rendomta.
03:21
Now, when I talk about this with my friends
74
201008
2024
Kur e diskutoj kete me miqte e mi
03:23
in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,
75
203032
2552
ne Cambridge dhe ne Silicon Valley, ata thone,
03:25
"Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.
76
205584
2273
"Fantastike. Nuk ka me angari, nuk ka me pune te rendomta.
03:27
This gives us the chance to imagine
77
207857
2051
Kjo na jep mundesine te imagjinojme
03:29
an entirely different kind of society,
78
209908
2293
nje shoqeri komplet ndryshe,
03:32
a society where the creators and the discoverers
79
212201
2912
nje shoqeri ku krijuesit dhe zbuluesit
03:35
and the performers and the innovators
80
215113
1829
dhe performuesit dhe novatoret
03:36
come together with their patrons and their financiers
81
216942
3509
bashkohen me klientet dhe financuesit e tyre
03:40
to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,
82
220451
2679
per te diskutuar mbi subjekte te ndryshme,
03:43
provoke each other."
83
223130
2078
frymezojne dhe konfrontojne njeri tjetrin."
03:45
It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.
84
225208
4575
Eshte nje shoqeri, e cila ngjason shume me Konferencen TED.
03:49
And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.
85
229783
2483
Dhe ka nje te vertete te madhe ketu.
03:52
We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.
86
232266
3023
Po shohim nje lulezim te mahnitshem.
03:55
In a world where it is just about as easy
87
235289
2002
Ne nje bote ku eshte po aq e thjeshte
03:57
to generate an object as it is to print a document,
88
237291
3407
te prodhosh nje objekt apo te printosh nje dokument,
04:00
we have amazing new possibilities.
89
240698
2089
kemi mundesi te reja te mahnitshme.
04:02
The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists
90
242787
3677
Njerezit te cilet kane qene mjeshter dhe amatore
04:06
are now makers, and they're responsible
91
246464
1867
tashme jane krijues, dhe jane pergjegjes
04:08
for massive amounts of innovation.
92
248331
2390
per nje numer te madh risish.
04:10
And artists who were formerly constrained
93
250721
2282
Artiste qe me pare kane qene te limituar
04:13
can now do things that were never, ever possible
94
253003
3168
tashme mund te bejne gjera qe nuk kane qene kurre te mundshme
04:16
for them before.
95
256171
1896
me pare per ata.
04:18
So this is a time of great flourishing,
96
258067
2117
Pra kjo eshte nje kohe lulezimi
04:20
and the more I look around, the more convinced I become
97
260184
2932
dhe sa me shume shoh perreth, me shume bindem
04:23
that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,
98
263116
3074
qe citati i fizikantit Freeman Dyson,
04:26
is not hyperbole at all.
99
266190
2033
nuk eshte aspak hiperbolik.
04:28
This is just a plain statement of the facts.
100
268223
2790
Kjo eshte thjesht nje deklarate e qarte mbi fakte.
04:31
We are in the middle of an astonishing period.
101
271013
1845
Jemi ne mes te nje periudhe mahnitese.
04:32
["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]
102
272858
884
("Teknologjia eshte nje dhurate nga Zoti. Pas dhurates se jetes eshte dhurata me e bukur nga te gjitha dhuratat e Zotit. Eshte nena e civilizimit, e artit dhe shkences." Freeman Dyson)
04:33
Which brings up another great question:
103
273742
2791
Qe sjell nje tjeter pyetje te madhe:
04:36
What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?
104
276533
2976
Cfare mund te shkoje keq ne kete epoke e re te makines?
04:39
Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.
105
279509
3362
Apo jo? Mire, mjaft, perparon, shko ne shtepi.
04:42
We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges
106
282871
2666
Do perballemi me dy seri sfidash te veshtira
04:45
as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.
107
285537
2793
ndersa futemi me thelle ne te ardhmen qe po krijojme.
04:48
The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized
108
288330
3250
Te parat jane ekonomite, dhe qe permblidhen shume mire
04:51
in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth
109
291580
3090
ne nje histori fiktive rreth komunikimit
04:54
between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,
110
294670
3042
ndermjet Henry Ford II dhe Walter Reuther,
04:57
who was the head of the auto workers union.
111
297712
2745
i cili ishte kryetar i sindikates se punetoreve te automobilave.
05:00
They were touring one of the new modern factories,
112
300457
2183
Po vizitonin nje nga fabrikat e reja moderne
05:02
and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,
113
302640
2750
dhe Ford me shaka kthehet nga Reuther dhe i thote,
05:05
"Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots
114
305390
2162
"Hej Walter, si do ti besh keta robote
05:07
to pay union dues?"
115
307552
1814
te paguajne detyrimet e sindikates?"
05:09
And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,
116
309366
1945
Dhe Reuther ja kthen, "Hej Henry,
05:11
how are you going to get them to buy cars?"
117
311311
4542
si do ti besh ata te blejne makina?"
05:15
Reuther's problem in that anecdote
118
315853
3011
Problemi i Reuther ne ate anektode
05:18
is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy
119
318864
4109
ishte se eshte e veshtire te ofrosh punen tende ne nje ekonomi
05:22
that's full of machines,
120
322973
1635
e cila eshte e mbushur me makineri,
05:24
and we see this very clearly in the statistics.
121
324608
2224
dhe kete e shohim shume qarte neper stastistika.
05:26
If you look over the past couple decades
122
326832
2392
Nese do kthehesh te shohesh disa dekada perpara
05:29
at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --
123
329224
3664
ne kthimet e kapitalit -- e thene ndryshe, perfitimet e korporatave --
05:32
we see them going up,
124
332888
1684
i shohim ne ngritje,
05:34
and we see that they're now at an all-time high.
125
334572
2087
dhe shohim qe tani ato jane me te larta se ne te gjitha koherat.
05:36
If we look at the returns to labor, in other words
126
336659
2701
Nese shohim ne kthimet mbi punen, ose ndryshe
05:39
total wages paid out in the economy,
127
339360
1884
paga totale te paguara ne ekonomi,
05:41
we see them at an all-time low
128
341244
2547
i shohim si me te ultat e te gjithe koherave
05:43
and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.
129
343791
3065
dhe i jane drejtuar shume shpejt drejtimit te kundert.
05:46
So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.
130
346856
1770
Pra keto jane lajme te keqija per Reuther.
05:48
It looks like it might be great news for Ford,
131
348626
3398
Duket sikur mund te jene lajme te mira per Ford,
05:52
but it's actually not. If you want to sell
132
352024
2304
por realisht nuk jane. Nese doni te shisni
05:54
huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,
133
354328
3344
sasi te medha te mirash materiale te shtrenjta tek njerezit,
05:57
you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.
134
357672
3788
realisht ju doni nje klase te mesme te madhe, stabel dhe te suksesshme.
06:01
We have had one of those in America
135
361460
2224
E kemi pasur nje te tille ne Amerike
06:03
for just about the entire postwar period.
136
363684
2633
per gjithe periudhen pas lufte.
06:06
But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.
137
366317
4352
Por klasa e mesme eshte qartazi ne rrezik te larte tashme.
06:10
We all know a lot of the statistics,
138
370669
1411
Dihen shume statistika,
06:12
but just to repeat one of them,
139
372080
2359
por po perseris nje nga ato,
06:14
median income in America has actually gone down
140
374439
2767
e ardhura mesatare ne Amerike eshte ulur
06:17
over the past 15 years,
141
377206
1691
per 15 vitet e kaluara
06:18
and we're in danger of getting trapped
142
378897
1715
dhe jemi ne rrezik te zihemi ne kurth
06:20
in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization
143
380612
3925
ne nje cikel vicioz ku pabarazia dhe polarizimi
06:24
continue to go up over time.
144
384537
3180
vazhdojne te ngrihen ne lidhje me kohen.
06:27
The societal challenges that come along
145
387717
2399
Sfidat shoqerore qe vine
06:30
with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.
146
390116
2576
me ate lloj pabarazie meritojne vemendje.
06:32
There are a set of societal challenges
147
392692
1668
Ka nje grup sfidash shoqerore
06:34
that I'm actually not that worried about,
148
394360
1944
per te cilat nuk shqetesohem shume,
06:36
and they're captured by images like this.
149
396304
2351
te cilat tregohen ne keto imazhe.
06:38
This is not the kind of societal problem
150
398655
1822
Ky nuk eshte lloji i problemit shoqeror
06:40
that I am concerned about.
151
400477
2464
per te cilin shqetesohem.
06:42
There is no shortage of dystopian visions
152
402941
2143
Nuk na mungojne vizionet anti-utopike
06:45
about what happens when our machines become self-aware,
153
405084
3483
per ate cka ndodh kur makinerite tona behet te vetedijshme,
06:48
and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.
154
408567
3176
dhe vendosin te ngrihen dhe te kordinojne sulme ndaj nesh.
06:51
I'm going to start worrying about those
155
411743
1747
Do filloj te shqetesohem per ato
06:53
the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.
156
413490
3229
diten qe kompjuteri im do te njohe printerin tim.
06:56
(Laughter) (Applause)
157
416719
3629
(Te qeshura) (Duartrokitje)
07:00
So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.
158
420348
2972
Pra ky nuk eshte grupi i sfidave per te cilat ne duhet te shqetesohemi.
07:03
To tell you the kinds of societal challenges
159
423320
2788
Per t'ju treguar llojet e sfidave shoqerore
07:06
that are going to come up in the new machine age,
160
426108
2212
qe do shfaqen ne epoken e re te makines,
07:08
I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.
161
428320
3711
dua t'ju tregoj nje histori per dy punetore tipik Amerikane.
07:12
And to make them really stereotypical,
162
432031
1768
Dhe per ti bere ata tipik te vertete,
07:13
let's make them both white guys.
163
433799
2147
le t'i supozojme te dy te bardhe.
07:15
And the first one is a college-educated
164
435946
3762
I pari eshte nje i edukuar ne universitet
07:19
professional, creative type, manager,
165
439708
3146
profesionist, tip krijues, drejtues,
07:22
engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.
166
442854
2751
inxhinier, doktor, avokat, ky lloj punonjesi.
07:25
We're going to call him "Ted."
167
445605
2419
Do ta quajme "Ted."
07:28
He's at the top of the American middle class.
168
448024
2273
Ai eshte ne maje te klases se mesme Amerikane.
07:30
His counterpart is not college-educated
169
450297
2882
Homologu i tij nuk eshte i edukuar ne universitet
07:33
and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,
170
453179
3064
dhe punon si nje punetor, punon si nje nepunes,
07:36
does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.
171
456243
3312
ben pune te nivelit te ulet ne zyra ose te klases punetore qe kryen pune manuale.
07:39
We're going to call that guy "Bill."
172
459555
2405
Do ta quajme ate person "Bill."
07:41
And if you go back about 50 years,
173
461960
2079
Dhe nese kthehesh pas rreth 50 vjet,
07:44
Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.
174
464039
3817
Bill dhe Ted benin jete shume te ngjashme.
07:47
For example, in 1960 they were both very likely
175
467856
2503
Per shembull, ne 1960 kishte shume mundesi qe te dy
07:50
to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.
176
470359
3370
te kishin pune me orar te plote, nga 40 ore ne jave.
07:53
But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,
177
473729
3296
Por sic ka dokumentuar edhe studiuesi social Charles Murray,
07:57
as we started to automate the economy,
178
477025
2968
nderkohe qe filluam te automatizojme ekonomine,
07:59
and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,
179
479993
4147
dhe ne 1960 sapo kishte filluar qe bizneset te perdornin kompjutera,
08:04
as we started to progressively inject technology
180
484140
2871
nderkohe qe filluam progresivisht te injektojme teknologjine
08:07
and automation and digital stuff into the economy,
181
487011
2736
dhe automatizimin dhe dixhitalizimin ne ekonomi,
08:09
the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.
182
489747
3025
pasurite e Bill dhe Ted ndryshuan shume.
08:12
Over this time frame, Ted has continued
183
492772
2119
Gjate kesaj kornize kohe, Ted ka vazhduar
08:14
to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.
184
494891
2752
te mbaje nje pune me orar te plote. Por jo Bill.
08:17
In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,
185
497643
4271
Ne shume raste, Billi ka qene pa pune fare,
08:21
and Ted very rarely has.
186
501914
2264
kurse Ted shume rralle.
08:24
Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.
187
504178
3265
Gjate kohes, martesa e Ted ka qene plotesisht e lumtur.
08:27
Bill's hasn't.
188
507443
1641
Por jo ajo e Billit.
08:29
And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,
189
509084
3322
Femijet e Ted jane rritur ne nje shtepi me dy prinder,
08:32
while Bill's absolutely have not over time.
190
512406
3220
gje qe s'ndodhi me ata te Billit.
08:35
Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?
191
515626
2404
Menyra te tjera si Bill po mbetet jashte shoqerise?
08:38
He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,
192
518030
3689
S'merr pjese ne votimin per zgjedhjet presidenciale,
08:41
and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.
193
521719
3993
dhe ka filluar te hyje me shpesh ne burg.
08:45
So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,
194
525712
3984
Pra nuk mund te them nje histori te gezuar per keto prirje shoqerore,
08:49
and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.
195
529696
2747
dhe te cilet nuk tregojne asnje shenje per te rikthyer veten.
08:52
They're also true no matter which ethnic group
196
532443
2973
Jane gjithashtu te verteta, pavaresisht te kujt grupi etnik
08:55
or demographic group we look at,
197
535416
1721
apo demografik qe shohim,
08:57
and they're actually getting so severe
198
537137
2076
dhe realisht po rendesohen me shume
08:59
that they're in danger of overwhelming
199
539213
1771
saqe jane ne rrezik per derrmim
09:00
even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.
200
540984
3648
edhe pas progresit te mahnitshem qe beme me Levizjen e te Drejtave Civile.
09:04
And what my friends in Silicon Valley
201
544632
2512
Dhe ajo cka miqte e mi ne Silicon Valley
09:07
and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.
202
547144
5251
dhe Cambridge po vene re, eshte se ata jane Ted.
09:12
They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,
203
552395
3437
Po jetojne keto jete shume te angazhuara, produktive,
09:15
and they've got all the benefits to show from that,
204
555832
2390
dhe i kane te gjitha perfitimet lidhur me to,
09:18
while Bill is leading a very different life.
205
558222
2435
ndersa Bill po jeton nje jete shume ndryshe.
09:20
They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was
206
560657
2140
Jane te dy deshmi te saktesise se Voltaire
09:22
when he talked about the benefits of work,
207
562797
2252
kur fliste per perfitimet e punes,
09:25
and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.
208
565049
3581
dhe per faktin qe na shpeton ne nga jo nje por tre te keqija te medha.
09:28
["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]
209
568630
997
("Puna e shpeton njeriun nga tre te keqija te medha: merzitja, vesi dhe nevoja." - Voltaire)
09:29
So with these challenges, what do we do about them?
210
569627
3336
Pra me keto sfida, cfare bejme ndaj tyre?
09:32
The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,
211
572963
2583
Skenari ekonomik eshte cuditerisht i qarte,
09:35
surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.
212
575546
3140
cuditerisht i hapur, sidomos ne terma afatshkurter.
09:38
The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,
213
578686
2892
Robotet nuk do na marin te gjithe punet per nja dy vjet,
09:41
so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:
214
581578
4468
pra skenari klasik Econ 101 do funksionoje shume mire:
09:46
Encourage entrepreneurship,
215
586046
2152
Inkurajoni siperrmarresin,
09:48
double down on infrastructure,
216
588198
2196
investoni ne infrastrukture,
09:50
and make sure we're turning out people
217
590394
1699
dhe sigurohuni qe sistemi i edukimit
09:52
from our educational system with the appropriate skills.
218
592093
3597
te nxjerre njerez me aftesite e duhura.
09:55
But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy
219
595690
3277
Por ne afagjate, nese po shkojme drejt nje ekonomie
09:58
that's heavy on technology and light on labor,
220
598967
2652
qe eshte e rende ne teknologji dhe e lehte ne fuqi punetore,
10:01
and we are, then we have to consider
221
601619
2428
qe eshte e vertete, atehere duhet te marim parasysh
10:04
some more radical interventions,
222
604047
1784
disa nderhyrje me radikale,
10:05
for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.
223
605831
3199
per shembull, dicka si garantimin e te ardhurave minimale.
10:09
Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,
224
609030
3712
Kjo ndoshta do te merzise disa nga ju,
10:12
because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing
225
612742
3857
sepse idea shoqerizohet me krahun ekstrem te se majtes
10:16
and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.
226
616599
3219
dhe me skema radikale per rishperndarjen e pasurise.
10:19
I did a little bit of research on this notion,
227
619818
1953
Kam bere nje studim te vogel mbi kete nocion,
10:21
and it might calm some folk down to know that
228
621771
2455
dhe mund te qetesoje disa njerez duke ditur se
10:24
the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income
229
624226
2632
idea e nje garancie mbi te ardhurat minimale neto
10:26
has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists
230
626858
3162
eshte mbrojtur nga ajo mase shkumuese socialiste
10:30
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.
231
630035
5473
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon dhe Milton Friedman.
10:35
And if you find yourself worried
232
635508
1879
Dhe nese e gjeni veten duke u shqetesuar
10:37
that something like a guaranteed income
233
637387
3309
se dicka si te ardhurat e garantuara
10:40
is going to stifle our drive to succeed
234
640696
2275
do mbyse udhen tone drejt suksesit
10:42
and make us kind of complacent,
235
642971
1764
dhe te na beje te vetekenaqur,
10:44
you might be interested to know that social mobility,
236
644735
2790
mund te jeni te interesuar te dini se levizshmeria sociale,
10:47
one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,
237
647525
2675
nje nga gjerat mbi te cilet ne krenohemi ne Shtetet e Bashkuara,
10:50
is now lower than it is in the northern European countries
238
650200
3340
eshte tani me e ulet se sa ne shtetet veriore Europiane
10:53
that have these very generous social safety nets.
239
653540
3199
te cilat kane ato sistemet sociale te sigurta e bujare.
10:56
So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.
240
656739
2792
Pra skenari ekonomik eshte aktualisht shume i hapur.
10:59
The societal one is a lot more challenging.
241
659531
3056
Ai shoqeror eshte shume me sfidues.
11:02
I don't know what the playbook is
242
662587
2148
Une nuk e di cili eshte skenari
11:04
for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.
243
664735
3828
per ta bere Bill te angazhohet dhe te qendroje i angazhuar gjate jetes se tij.
11:08
I do know that education is a huge part of it.
244
668563
2504
Por di qe edukimi eshte nje pjese shume e madhe e saj.
11:11
I witnessed this firsthand.
245
671067
1780
Jam deshmitar i kesaj.
11:12
I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education,
246
672847
3756
Kam bere shkollen Montessori ne vitet e para te edukimit tim,
11:16
and what that education taught me
247
676603
1529
dhe ajo qe mesova
11:18
is that the world is an interesting place
248
678132
2091
eshte se bota eshte nje vend interesant
11:20
and my job is to go explore it.
249
680223
2641
dhe puna ime eshte ta eksploroj ate.
11:22
The school stopped in third grade,
250
682864
1701
Shkolla mbaroi ne klasen e trete,
11:24
so then I entered the public school system,
251
684565
2068
dhe une hyra ne nje shkolle publike,
11:26
and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag.
252
686633
4366
dhe kisha ndjesine sikur me kishin derguar ne Gulag.
11:30
With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job
253
690999
2901
Tani me pas kur e mendoj, e di se detyra ishte
11:33
was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer,
254
693900
2514
te me pergatisnin per jeten si nje nepunes ose nje punetor,
11:36
but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of
255
696414
2330
por ne ate kohe dukesh sikur puna e tyre ishte
11:38
bore me into some submission with what was going on around me.
256
698744
3824
te me merziste deri ne nenshtrim ndaj asaj qe po ndodhte rreth meje.
11:42
We have to do better than this.
257
702568
1348
Duhet te bejme me shume se aq.
11:43
We cannot keep turning out Bills.
258
703916
3676
Nuk mund te vazhdojme te kthehemi ne Bill.
11:47
So we see some green shoots that things are getting better.
259
707592
2344
Po shohim disa filiza jeshile se gjerat po permiresohen.
11:49
We see technology deeply impacting education
260
709936
2824
Shohim teknologjine e cila influencon thelle edukimin
11:52
and engaging people, from our youngest learners
261
712760
2528
dhe angazhon njerezit, duke filluar nga nxenesit me te rinj
11:55
up to our oldest ones.
262
715288
1764
deri tek me te vjetrit.
11:57
We see very prominent business voices telling us
263
717052
2620
Shohim disa zera shume spikates te cilet na thone
11:59
we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while.
264
719672
3216
se duhet te rimendojme disa nga gjerat qe po ruajme per ca kohe.
12:02
And we see very serious and sustained
265
722888
2260
Dhe shohim perpjekje serioze e te qendrueshme
12:05
and data-driven efforts to understand
266
725148
2804
te bazuara ne te dhena per te kuptuar
12:07
how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.
267
727952
3543
si te nderhyjme ne disa nga komunitetet me shqetesuese qe kemi.
12:11
So the green shoots are out there.
268
731495
2209
Pra filizat jeshile jane dukur tashme.
12:13
I don't want to pretend for a minute
269
733704
1434
Nuk po pretendoj per asnje moment
12:15
that what we have is going to be enough.
270
735138
1942
se ajo cka kemi do jete mjaftueshem.
12:17
We're facing very tough challenges.
271
737080
2142
Po perballemi me sfida shume te ashpra.
12:19
To give just one example, there are about five million Americans
272
739222
3106
Per te dhene nje shembull, ekzistojne me perafersi pese milion Amerikane
12:22
who have been unemployed for at least six months.
273
742328
2814
te cilet jane te papune per te pakten gjashte muaj.
12:25
We're not going to fix things for them
274
745142
1342
Nuk do ti riparojme gjerat per ta
12:26
by sending them back to Montessori.
275
746484
2443
duke i derguar ata mbrapsht ne shkollen Montessori.
12:28
And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world
276
748927
2355
Dhe shqetesimi im me i madh eshte se po krijojme nje bote
12:31
where we're going to have glittering technologies
277
751282
2549
ku do te kemi teknologji vezelluese
12:33
embedded in kind of a shabby society
278
753831
2305
te ngulitura ne nje shoqeri te lene pas dore
12:36
and supported by an economy that generates inequality
279
756136
2967
dhe te mbeshtetur nga ekonomi e cila gjeneron pabarazi
12:39
instead of opportunity.
280
759103
1481
ne vend te mundesive.
12:40
But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do.
281
760584
2752
Por realisht une nuk mendoj se ne do te bejme ate.
12:43
I think we're going to do something a lot better
282
763336
1629
Une mendoj se do bejme dicka shume me mire
12:44
for one very straightforward reason:
283
764965
2110
per nje arsye shume te qarte:
12:47
The facts are getting out there.
284
767075
1968
Faktet jane te dukshme.
12:49
The realities of this new machine age
285
769043
2042
Realiteti e kesaj epoke te re te makines
12:51
and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known.
286
771085
3315
dhe ndryshimi ne ekonomi po behet me i perhapur.
12:54
If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things
287
774400
2851
Nese donim ta pershpejtonim ate proces, mund te benim gjera
12:57
like have our best economists and policymakers
288
777251
2766
si p.sh. te vendosnim ekonomistet dhe politikeberesit me te mire
13:00
play "Jeopardy!" against Watson.
289
780017
2419
te luanin "Jeopardy!" kunder Watson.
13:02
We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip.
290
782436
3550
Mund te dergonim Kongresin ne nje udhetim me makina robotike.
13:05
And if we do enough of these kinds of things,
291
785986
1653
Dhe nese bejme mjaftueshem nga keto lloj gjerash,
13:07
the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different.
292
787639
3404
ndergjegjesimi do mbytet ne ate qe gjerat do jene ndryshe.
13:11
And then we're off to the races,
293
791043
1771
Dhe atehere ne jemi jashte garave,
13:12
because I don't believe for a second
294
792814
2430
sepse nuk mendoj per asnje sekond
13:15
that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges
295
795244
2968
se kemi harruar te zgjidhim sfida te veshtira
13:18
or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.
296
798212
4350
ose jemi bere shume apatik ose zemer-ngurte per te provuar.
13:22
I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths
297
802562
2394
E fillova fjalimin tim me citate nga ekspert te fjales
13:24
who were separated by an ocean and a century.
298
804956
2816
te cilat ndaheshin nga nje oqean dhe nje shekull.
13:27
Let me end it with words from politicians
299
807772
2152
Me lejoni ta mbyll me fjale nga politikane
13:29
who were similarly distant.
300
809924
1731
te cilet ishin njesoj te larget.
13:31
Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949,
301
811655
3333
Winston Churchill erdhi ne shtepine time te MIT ne 1949,
13:34
and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses
302
814988
2148
dhe tha, "Nese do sjellim masen e gjere
13:37
of the people in every land to the table of abundance,
303
817136
3710
te njerezve te seciles toke ne tryezen e bollekut,
13:40
it can only be by the tireless improvement
304
820846
3030
mund te ndodhe vetem nga permiresimi i palodhshem
13:43
of all of our means of technical production."
305
823876
2973
i te gjitha mjeteve te prodhimit teknik."
13:46
Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient.
306
826849
2619
Abraham Lincoln zbuloi se kishte nje tjeter perberes.
13:49
He said, "I am a firm believer in the people.
307
829468
2898
Ai tha, "Une jam nje besimtar solid i njerezve.
13:52
If given the truth, they can be depended upon
308
832366
2333
Nese u jep te verteten, ata mund te krijojne varesi mbi te
13:54
to meet any national crisis.
309
834699
2369
per te perballuar cdo krize nacionale.
13:57
The great point is to give them the plain facts."
310
837068
2784
Pika kryesore eshte ti japesh atyre fakte te qarta."
13:59
So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with
311
839852
3110
Pra shenimi optimist, pika kryesore qe une dua t'ju le
14:02
is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear,
312
842962
3145
eshte se faktet e qarta te epokes se re te makines po qartesohen,
14:06
and I have every confidence that we're going to use them
313
846107
2457
dhe une kam besim se do ti perdorim ato
14:08
to chart a good course into the challenging,
314
848564
2915
per te hapur nje rruge te mire
14:11
abundant economy that we're creating.
315
851479
2533
drejt ekonomise se bollekut qe po krijojme.
14:14
Thank you very much.
316
854012
1691
Falemnderit shume.
14:15
(Applause)
317
855703
4382
(Duartrokitje)
Rreth kësaj faqe interneti

Kjo faqe do t'ju prezantojë me videot e YouTube që janë të dobishme për të mësuar anglisht. Do të shihni mësime angleze të mësuara nga mësues të nivelit më të lartë nga e gjithë bota. Klikoni dy herë mbi titrat në anglisht të shfaqura në secilën faqe të videos për të luajtur videon prej andej. Titrat lëvizin në sinkron me riprodhimin e videos. Nëse keni ndonjë koment ose kërkesë, ju lutemi na kontaktoni duke përdorur këtë formular kontakti.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7