What will future jobs look like? | Andrew McAfee

1,261,691 views ・ 2013-06-20

TED


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00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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Prevoditelj: Maja Budišin Lukin Recezent: Mladen Barešić
00:12
The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,
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Spisateljica George Eliot upozorila nas je
00:15
among all forms of mistake,
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da je među svim pogreškama
00:17
prophesy is the most gratuitous.
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najnepotrebnija: predviđanje.
00:19
The person that we would all acknowledge
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Osoba koju bismo svi prepoznali
00:21
as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.
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kao njenog istomišljenika u 20. stoljeću, Yogi Berra, složio se.
00:25
He said, "It's tough to make predictions,
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Rekao je: "Teško je predviđati,
00:27
especially about the future."
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pogotovo budućnost."
00:30
I'm going to ignore their cautions
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Ignorirat ću njihova upozorenja
00:32
and make one very specific forecast.
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i iznijet ću jednu vrlo konkretnu prognozu:
00:34
In the world that we are creating very quickly,
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U svijetu kojeg vrlo ubrzano stvaramo
00:36
we're going to see more and more things
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vidjet ćemo sve više stvari
00:38
that look like science fiction,
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nalik znanstvenoj fantastici,
00:40
and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.
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a sve manje nalik klasičnim poslovima.
00:43
Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,
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Naši će se automobili vrlo uskoro početi sami voziti,
00:46
which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.
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što znači da će nam trebati manje vozača kamiona.
00:48
We're going to hook Siri up to Watson
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Priključit ćemo Siri za Watsona
00:51
and use that to automate a lot of the work
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i upotrijebiti ih za automatiziranje mnogih poslova
00:53
that's currently done by customer service reps
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koje danas obavljaju službe za korisnike,
00:55
and troubleshooters and diagnosers,
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stručnjaci za uklanjanje kvarova i oni za prepoznavanje problema.
00:58
and we're already taking R2D2,
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Već koristimo i R2D2
01:00
painting him orange, and putting him to work
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bojimo ga u narančasto i upošljavamo
01:04
carrying shelves around warehouses,
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kao prenositelja polica po skladištima,
01:06
which means we need a lot fewer people
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što znači da nam treba puno manje ljudi
01:08
to be walking up and down those aisles.
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koji će prolaziti tim prolazima.
01:10
Now, for about 200 years,
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Već 200-tinjak godina,
01:14
people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --
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ljudi govore točno ovo o čemu vam govorim:
01:16
the age of technological unemployment is at hand —
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Približava se doba tehnološke nezaposlenosti...
01:19
starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain
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Započinje s ludistima i njihovim razbijanjem tkalačkih stanova u Velikoj Britaniji
01:22
just about two centuries ago,
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prije samo dva stoljeća.
01:23
and they have been wrong.
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A oni su bili u krivu.
01:25
Our economies in the developed world have coasted along
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Naša gospodarstva u razvijenom svijetu dugo se već kreću
01:28
on something pretty close to full employment.
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u zoni vrlo bliskoj punoj zaposlenosti.
01:30
Which brings up a critical question:
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Što nameće ključno pitanje:
01:32
Why is this time different, if it really is?
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"Zašto je ovog puta drugačije, ako uopće jest?"
01:35
The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,
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Drugačije je zato što su, u proteklih samo nekoliko godina,
01:38
our machines have started demonstrating skills
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naši strojevi započeli demonstrirati vještine
01:40
they have never, ever had before:
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koje nikada prije nisu:
01:43
understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,
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razumijevanje, govorenje, slušanje, viđenje,
01:46
answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.
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odgovaranje, pisanje... i još uvijek usvajaju nove vještine.
01:50
For example, mobile humanoid robots
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Na primjer, humanoidni mobilni roboti
01:53
are still incredibly primitive,
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još su uvijek nevjerojatno priprosti,
01:55
but the research arm of the Defense Department
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ali istraživački odjel Ministarstva obrane
01:57
just launched a competition
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upravo je pokrenuo natjecanje
01:58
to have them do things like this,
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kako bi potaknuli ljude da rade na takvim stvarima.
02:00
and if the track record is any guide,
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I ako su nam dosadašnja iskustva ikakva vodilja,
02:02
this competition is going to be successful.
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ovo će natjecanje biti uspješno.
02:05
So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all
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Kad pogledam uokolo, pomislim kako uopće nije daleko dan
02:08
when we're going to have androids
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kad će androidi
02:10
doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.
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obavljati mnoge naše današnje poslove.
02:13
And we're creating a world where there is going to be
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Stvaramo svijet u kojemu će biti
02:17
more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.
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sve više tehnologije, a sve manje klasičnih poslova.
02:21
It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling
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To je svijet koji Erik Brynjolfsson i ja nazivamo
02:23
"the new machine age."
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"Novo doba strojeva."
02:24
The thing to keep in mind is that
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Treba imati na umu da
02:27
this is absolutely great news.
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su to neosporno sjajne vijesti.
02:29
This is the best economic news on the planet these days.
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To su najbolje gospodarske vijesti na planetu ovih dana.
02:32
Not that there's a lot of competition, right?
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Konkurencija i nije velika, zar ne?!
02:36
This is the best economic news we have these days
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To su najbolje gospodarske vijesti ovih dana
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for two main reasons.
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iz dva glavna razloga...
02:39
The first is, technological progress is what allows us
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Prvi, tehnološki je napredak taj koji nam omogućava
02:42
to continue this amazing recent run that we're on
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nastaviti ova nevjerojatna suvremena kretanja,
02:46
where output goes up over time,
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pri čemu s vremenom proizvodnja raste,
02:49
while at the same time, prices go down,
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dok istovremeno cijene padaju,
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and volume and quality just continue to explode.
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a volumen i kvaliteta i nadalje skokovito rastu.
02:56
Now, some people look at this and talk about
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Neki ljudi ovo smatraju
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shallow materialism,
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plitkim materijalizmom,
03:00
but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.
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no to je posve pogrešno gledište.
03:02
This is abundance, which is exactly
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To je obilje, upravo ono što
03:05
what we want our economic system to provide.
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želimo da nam naš gospodarski sustav pruži.
03:08
The second reason that the new machine age
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Drugi razlog zašto je "Novo doba strojeva"
03:11
is such great news is that, once the androids
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tako sjajna vijest je taj što, pošto androidi
03:14
start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,
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preuzmu poslove, mi ih više nećemo morati obavljati,
03:17
and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.
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i tako ćemo se osloboditi mučnog i iscrpljujućeg rada.
03:21
Now, when I talk about this with my friends
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Kad razgovaram o tome s prijateljima
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in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,
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u Cambridgeu i u Silicijskoj dolini, kažu:
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"Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.
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"Fantastično. Nema više robovanja, nema više iscrpljivanja.
03:27
This gives us the chance to imagine
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To nam daje priliku da zamislimo
03:29
an entirely different kind of society,
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posve drugačije društvo,
03:32
a society where the creators and the discoverers
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društvo u kojemu stvaraoci i pronalazači,
03:35
and the performers and the innovators
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izvođači i inovatori,
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come together with their patrons and their financiers
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sa svojim pokroviteljima i financijerima,
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to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,
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raspravljaju, zabavljaju se, nadahnjuju,
03:43
provoke each other."
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provociraju jedni druge."
03:45
It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.
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To je društvo, doista, veoma nalik TED konferenciji.
03:49
And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.
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To je, zapravo, poprilična istina.
03:52
We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.
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Svjedoci smo nevjerojatnog procvata.
03:55
In a world where it is just about as easy
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U svijetu u kojem je gotovo jednako lako
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to generate an object as it is to print a document,
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stvoriti objekt kao i tiskati dokument,
04:00
we have amazing new possibilities.
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nevjerojatne nove mogućnosti nam se pružaju.
04:02
The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists
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Ljudi koji su nekad bili obrtnici i hobisti
04:06
are now makers, and they're responsible
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sad su stvaraoci, odgovorni
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for massive amounts of innovation.
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za brojne inovacije.
04:10
And artists who were formerly constrained
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I umjetnici, koji su ranije bili ograničavani,
04:13
can now do things that were never, ever possible
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sad mogu raditi stvari koje nikad prije
04:16
for them before.
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nisu mogli raditi.
04:18
So this is a time of great flourishing,
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Dakle, ovo je doba velikog procvata,
04:20
and the more I look around, the more convinced I become
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i što više promatram oko sebe, uvjereniji sam
04:23
that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,
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kako ovaj citat, fizičara Freemana Dysona,
04:26
is not hyperbole at all.
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nije nikakvo pretjerivanje.
04:28
This is just a plain statement of the facts.
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On jednostavno potvrđuje činjenice.
04:31
We are in the middle of an astonishing period.
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Usred smo zadivljujućeg razdoblja.
04:32
["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]
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["Tehnologija je dar od Boga. Nakon dara života, ona je možda i najveći od Božjih darova. Ona je majka civilizacija, umjetnosti i znanosti." - Freeman Dyson]
04:33
Which brings up another great question:
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Što nameće sljedeće sjajno pitanje:
04:36
What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?
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"Što bi možda moglo poći po zlu u ovom novom dobu strojeva?"
04:39
Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.
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Zar ne? Sjajno... Stani, procvjetaj, idi doma!
04:42
We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges
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Suočit ćemo se s dva trnovita skupa izazova
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as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.
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dok stremimo sve dublje u budućnost koju sami stvaramo.
04:48
The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized
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Prvi su ekonomski, i uistinu su lijepo sažeti
04:51
in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth
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u apokrifnoj priči o "povuci-potegni"
04:54
between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,
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između Henryja Forda II i Waltera Reuthera,
04:57
who was the head of the auto workers union.
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čelnika radničkog sindikata u automobilskoj industriji.
05:00
They were touring one of the new modern factories,
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Tijekom obilaska jedne od novih, modernih tvornica,
05:02
and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,
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Ford se nestašno obratio Reutheru:
05:05
"Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots
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"Walter, kako ćete ovim robotima
05:07
to pay union dues?"
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naplaćivati sindikalnu članarinu?"
05:09
And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,
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A Reuther mu uzvrati:
05:11
how are you going to get them to buy cars?"
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"Henry, a kako ćete ih vi nagovoriti da kupuju automobile?"
05:15
Reuther's problem in that anecdote
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Reutherov problem u toj anegdoti
05:18
is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy
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taj je što je teško ponuditi vlastiti rad u gospodarstvu
05:22
that's full of machines,
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prepunom strojeva,
05:24
and we see this very clearly in the statistics.
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i na to nam vrlo jasno ukazuje statistika.
05:26
If you look over the past couple decades
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Osvrnemo li se na povrate na kapital
05:29
at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --
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u posljednjih par desetljeća - drugim riječima, na korporativne profite -
05:32
we see them going up,
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vidimo kako su rasli,
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and we see that they're now at an all-time high.
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i kako su sad na svojim najvišim razinama.
05:36
If we look at the returns to labor, in other words
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Ako pogledamo zarade zaposlenih - drugim riječima,
05:39
total wages paid out in the economy,
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ukupno isplaćene plaće u gospodarstvu -
05:41
we see them at an all-time low
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vidjet ćemo ih na najnižim razinama
05:43
and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.
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s vrlo brzim kretanjem u suprotnom smjeru.
05:46
So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.
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To je nedvojbeno loša vijest za Reuthera;
05:48
It looks like it might be great news for Ford,
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čini se da bi to mogla biti sjajna vijest za Forda...
05:52
but it's actually not. If you want to sell
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Ali, zapravo nije. Želite li ljudima prodati
05:54
huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,
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goleme količine ponešto skupih dobara,
05:57
you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.
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tada doista želite brojnu, stabilnu, prosperitetnu srednju klasu.
06:01
We have had one of those in America
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Jednu takvu imali smo u Americi
06:03
for just about the entire postwar period.
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u čitavom poslijeratnom razdoblju.
06:06
But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.
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No, srednji sloj je sad očito ugrožen.
06:10
We all know a lot of the statistics,
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Svima su nam poznati mnogi statistički podaci,
06:12
but just to repeat one of them,
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ali ponovimo samo jedan od njih:
06:14
median income in America has actually gone down
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Prosječna plaća u Americi zapravo je pala
06:17
over the past 15 years,
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tijekom proteklih 15 godina,
06:18
and we're in danger of getting trapped
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i u opasnosti smo da ostanemo zarobljeni
06:20
in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization
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u začaranom krugu u kojemu nejednakosti i polarizacije
06:24
continue to go up over time.
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s vremenom sve više rastu.
06:27
The societal challenges that come along
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Društveni izazovi koji dolaze
06:30
with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.
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s tom vrstom nejednakosti zaslužuju pažnju.
06:32
There are a set of societal challenges
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Postoji niz društvenih izazova
06:34
that I'm actually not that worried about,
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zbog kojih i nisam tako zabrinut,
06:36
and they're captured by images like this.
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i oni su prikazani slikama poput ovih:
06:38
This is not the kind of societal problem
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Ovo nije vrsta društvenog problema
06:40
that I am concerned about.
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koja me brine.
06:42
There is no shortage of dystopian visions
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Postoji mnoštvo utopijskih vizija
06:45
about what happens when our machines become self-aware,
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o tome što se događa kad naši strojevi postanu samosvjesni,
06:48
and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.
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i odluče se podići i usmjeriti napade protiv nas.
06:51
I'm going to start worrying about those
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O tome ću početi brinuti
06:53
the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.
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onoga dana kad moje računalo postane svjesno mog pisača...
06:56
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smijeh) (Pljesak)
07:00
So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.
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Dakle, taj skup izazova nas doista ne treba brinuti.
07:03
To tell you the kinds of societal challenges
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Kako biste razumjeli kakvi će se društveni izazovi
07:06
that are going to come up in the new machine age,
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pojaviti u tom novom dobu strojeva,
07:08
I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.
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ispričat ću vam priču o dva stereotipna američka radnika...
07:12
And to make them really stereotypical,
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A da bi oni stvarno bili stereotipni,
07:13
let's make them both white guys.
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neka oboje budu bijelci. Muškarci.
07:15
And the first one is a college-educated
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Prvi je visokoobrazovan,
07:19
professional, creative type, manager,
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stručnjak, kreativan tip, menadžer,
07:22
engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.
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inženjer, liječnik, odvjetnik... ta vrsta radnika.
07:25
We're going to call him "Ted."
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Zvat ćemo ga "Ted".
07:28
He's at the top of the American middle class.
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On je na vrhu američke srednje klase.
07:30
His counterpart is not college-educated
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S druge strane, drugi nije visokoobrazovan,
07:33
and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,
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on radi kao fizički radnik, radi kao službenik,
07:36
does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.
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obavlja poslove nižeg statusa u gospodarstvu.
07:39
We're going to call that guy "Bill."
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Njega ćemo zvati "Bill".
07:41
And if you go back about 50 years,
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I vratite li se 50-ak godina,
07:44
Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.
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Bill i Ted su živjeli prilično slično.
07:47
For example, in 1960 they were both very likely
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Primjerice, 1960. obojica su vrlo vjerojatno
07:50
to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.
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radili u punom radnom vremenu, radeći najmanje 40 sati tjedno.
07:53
But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,
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Ali, kao što je sociolog Charles Murray zabilježio,
07:57
as we started to automate the economy,
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kako smo započeli automatizirati gospodarstvo,
07:59
and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,
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a upravo 1960. su se računala počela koristiti u tvrtkama,
08:04
as we started to progressively inject technology
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što smo započeli više i brže uvoditi tehnologiju,
08:07
and automation and digital stuff into the economy,
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automatizaciju i digitalne stvari u naše gospodarstvo,
08:09
the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.
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sudbine Billa i Teda sve su se više razilazile.
08:12
Over this time frame, Ted has continued
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Tijekom tog razdoblja, Ted je i dalje
08:14
to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.
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zadržao stalan posao. Bill nije.
08:17
In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,
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U mnogim je slučajevima Bill potpuno napuštao svijet rada,
08:21
and Ted very rarely has.
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dok je Ted to vrlo rijetko činio.
08:24
Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.
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Tijekom vremena, Tedov je brak ostao prilično sretan.
08:27
Bill's hasn't.
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Billov nije.
08:29
And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,
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Tedova djeca odrasla su u domu s oba roditelja,
08:32
while Bill's absolutely have not over time.
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dok Billova nisu bezuvjetno.
08:35
Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?
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Ukazuje li još nešto na Billovo društveno otpadništvo?
08:38
He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,
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Rjeđe glasuje na predsjedničkim izborima,
08:41
and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.
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i češće završava u zatvoru.
08:45
So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,
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Dakle, ne mogu ispričati priču sa sretnim završetkom o ovim društvenim trendovima,
08:49
and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.
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i oni ne daju nikakve znake promjene smjera.
08:52
They're also true no matter which ethnic group
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Također, istiniti su za sve promatrane
08:55
or demographic group we look at,
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etničke ili demografske skupine,
08:57
and they're actually getting so severe
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i zapravo se toliko zaoštravaju
08:59
that they're in danger of overwhelming
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da su u opasnosti da toliko nadvladaju
09:00
even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.
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i zadivljujući napredak koji smo postigli s Pokretom za građanska prava.
09:04
And what my friends in Silicon Valley
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Ono što moji prijatelji u Silicijskoj dolini
09:07
and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.
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i Cambridgeu ne vide jest da su oni "Ted".
09:12
They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,
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Oni žive tim silno zaposlenim, produktivnim životima,
09:15
and they've got all the benefits to show from that,
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i imaju sve prednosti koje s tim idu,
09:18
while Bill is leading a very different life.
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dok Bill živi posve drugačijim životom.
09:20
They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was
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Obojica su dokaz koliko je Voltaire bio u pravu
09:22
when he talked about the benefits of work,
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kad je govorio o prednostima rada,
09:25
and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.
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i o činjenici da nas rad spašava ne jednog, nego triju velikih zala.
09:28
["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]
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["Rad spašava čovjeka od triju velikih zala: dosade, poroka i oskudice." - Voltaire]
09:29
So with these challenges, what do we do about them?
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Dakle, što ćemo učiniti glede ovih izazova?
09:32
The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,
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Ekonomska taktika je iznenađujuće jasna,
09:35
surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.
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iznenađujuće izravna. Osobito u kratkom roku.
09:38
The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,
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Roboti neće preuzeti sve naše poslove u narednih godinu ili dvije,
09:41
so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:
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pa će klasične ekonomske lekcije posve dobro djelovati:
09:46
Encourage entrepreneurship,
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Potičite poduzetništvo,
09:48
double down on infrastructure,
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prepolovite infrastrukturu,
09:50
and make sure we're turning out people
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i pobrinite se da iz našeg obrazovnog sustava
09:52
from our educational system with the appropriate skills.
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izlaze ljudi s odgovarajućim vještinama.
09:55
But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy
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Ali dugoročno, ako se krećemo ka gospodarstvu
09:58
that's heavy on technology and light on labor,
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snažno oslonjenom na tehnologiju, a slabo na radnu snagu -
10:01
and we are, then we have to consider
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a upravo je tako - tad moramo razmotriti
10:04
some more radical interventions,
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neke radikalnije zahvate,
10:05
for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.
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poput, primjerice, zajamčenog minimalnog dohotka.
10:09
Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,
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To vjerojatno nekima ovdje izaziva nelagodu,
10:12
because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing
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jer ta je ideja povezana s krajnjom političkom ljevicom
10:16
and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.
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i s prilično radikalnim planovima preraspodjele bogatstva.
10:19
I did a little bit of research on this notion,
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Malo sam istraživao tu tezu,
10:21
and it might calm some folk down to know that
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i nekoga bi moglo umiriti saznanje da su
10:24
the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income
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zamisao o zajamčenom minimalnom neto-dohotku,
10:26
has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists
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s pjenom-na-ustima, zagovarali socijalisti
10:30
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.
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Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon i Milton Friedman.
10:35
And if you find yourself worried
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A ako vas ipak brine
10:37
that something like a guaranteed income
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da će nešto poput zajamčenog dohotka
10:40
is going to stifle our drive to succeed
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ugušiti našu žeđ za uspjehom
10:42
and make us kind of complacent,
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i učiniti nas neambicioznima,
10:44
you might be interested to know that social mobility,
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moglo bi vas zanimati da je socijalna mobilnost -
10:47
one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,
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jedna od stvari kojima se u SAD-u uistinu ponosimo -
10:50
is now lower than it is in the northern European countries
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sad niža no u sjevernoeuropskim zemljama
10:53
that have these very generous social safety nets.
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koje imaju izdašne društvene sigurnosne mreže.
10:56
So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.
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Dakle, ekonomska taktika je, zapravo, prilično jednostavna.
10:59
The societal one is a lot more challenging.
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Socijalna je daleko izazovnija!
11:02
I don't know what the playbook is
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Ne znam kako potaknuti
11:04
for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.
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Billa da se angažira i ostane angažiran u svim aspektima života.
11:08
I do know that education is a huge part of it.
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Ali, znam da je obrazovanje važan dio taktike.
11:11
I witnessed this firsthand.
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Svjedok sam toga iz prve ruke.
11:12
I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education,
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Prvih nekoliko godina obrazovao sam se po programu Montessori.
11:16
and what that education taught me
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Ondje sam naučio
11:18
is that the world is an interesting place
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da je svijet zanimljivo mjesto,
11:20
and my job is to go explore it.
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i da je na meni da ga istražujem.
11:22
The school stopped in third grade,
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U trećem sam razredu
11:24
so then I entered the public school system,
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prešao u javni školski sustav,
11:26
and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag.
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i osjećao sam se kao da sam bio poslan u gulag.
11:30
With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job
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S naknadnom pameću, sad mi je jasno
11:33
was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer,
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da su me pripremali za život službenika ili radnika,
11:36
but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of
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ali tad mi se činilo kao da je cilj bio da me
11:38
bore me into some submission with what was going on around me.
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uljuljkaju za mirenje s onime što se događa oko mene.
11:42
We have to do better than this.
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Moramo biti bolji od toga!
11:43
We cannot keep turning out Bills.
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Ne možemo i nadalje stvarati "Billove"!
11:47
So we see some green shoots that things are getting better.
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Dakle, vidimo neke nagovještaje da se stvari mijenjaju na bolje...
11:49
We see technology deeply impacting education
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Vidimo da tehnologije duboko utječu na obrazovni sustav
11:52
and engaging people, from our youngest learners
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i angažiraju ljude, od naših najmlađih
11:55
up to our oldest ones.
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sve do najstarijih.
11:57
We see very prominent business voices telling us
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Čujemo kako nam vrlo ugledni poslovni ljudi govore
11:59
we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while.
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da trebamo iznova osmisliti sve ono što smo izvjesno vrijeme visoko cijenili.
12:02
And we see very serious and sustained
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I vidimo vrlo ozbiljna, trajna,
12:05
and data-driven efforts to understand
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i na podacima utemeljena nastojanja da razumijemo
12:07
how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.
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što poduzeti u našim najproblematičnijim zajednicama.
12:11
So the green shoots are out there.
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Znači, nagovještaji postoje...
12:13
I don't want to pretend for a minute
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Ne želim ni nakratko umišljati
12:15
that what we have is going to be enough.
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da će nam ovo što imamo biti dovoljno.
12:17
We're facing very tough challenges.
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Suočeni smo s vrlo teškim izazovima.
12:19
To give just one example, there are about five million Americans
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Navest ću samo jedan primjer: oko pet milijuna Amerikanaca
12:22
who have been unemployed for at least six months.
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nezaposleno je najmanje šest mjeseci.
12:25
We're not going to fix things for them
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Njima nećemo pomoći
12:26
by sending them back to Montessori.
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pošaljemo li ih natrag u Montessori...
12:28
And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world
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A najviše me brine da stvaramo svijet
12:31
where we're going to have glittering technologies
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u kojemu će blistava tehnologija
12:33
embedded in kind of a shabby society
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biti sastavni dio zapuštenog društva,
12:36
and supported by an economy that generates inequality
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podržana od strane gospodarstva koje generira nejednakost
12:39
instead of opportunity.
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umjesto da stvara prilike.
12:40
But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do.
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Međutim, ne mislim da ćemo to učiniti!
12:43
I think we're going to do something a lot better
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Mislim da ćemo napraviti nešto puno bolje,
12:44
for one very straightforward reason:
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iz jednog vrlo jednostavnog razloga:
12:47
The facts are getting out there.
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Činjenice su tu!
12:49
The realities of this new machine age
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Stvarnost ovog novog doba strojeva
12:51
and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known.
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i promjene u gospodarstvu svima postaju poznate.
12:54
If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things
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Kad bismo željeli ubrzati taj proces, mogli bismo
12:57
like have our best economists and policymakers
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dovesti naše najbolje ekonomiste i političare
13:00
play "Jeopardy!" against Watson.
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da zaigraju "Izazov!" protiv Watsona.
13:02
We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip.
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Mogli bismo sve naše kongresnike poslati na automobilsko putovanje.
13:05
And if we do enough of these kinds of things,
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I učinimo li dovoljno takvih stvari,
13:07
the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different.
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svijest sviju bit će preplavljena time da je drugačiji svijet moguć.
13:11
And then we're off to the races,
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I opet smo u utrci...
13:12
because I don't believe for a second
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Jer, ne vjerujem, ni sekunde,
13:15
that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges
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da smo zaboravili rješavati žestoke izazove,
13:18
or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.
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niti da smo postali previše apatični ili tvrdokorni a da ne bismo barem pokušali.
13:22
I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths
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Započeo sam svoj govor mislima nekih pisaca,
13:24
who were separated by an ocean and a century.
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razdvojenih oceanom i stoljećem...
13:27
Let me end it with words from politicians
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Dopustite mi da ga okončam riječima političara
13:29
who were similarly distant.
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koji su bili podjednako udaljeni.
13:31
Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949,
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Winston Churchill došao je u moj dom - MIT - 1949.,
13:34
and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses
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i rekao je: "Ako želimo dovesti široke mase ljudi,
13:37
of the people in every land to the table of abundance,
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u svakoj zemlji, za stol obilja,
13:40
it can only be by the tireless improvement
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to je moguće samo neumornim usavršavanjem
13:43
of all of our means of technical production."
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svih naših tehničkih proizvodnih sredstava."
13:46
Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient.
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Abraham Lincoln shvatio je da postoji još jedan sastojak...
13:49
He said, "I am a firm believer in the people.
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Rekao je: "Čvrsto vjerujem u ljude.
13:52
If given the truth, they can be depended upon
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Kažemo li im istinu, budite sigurni
13:54
to meet any national crisis.
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da će riješiti svaku nacionalnu krizu.
13:57
The great point is to give them the plain facts."
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Ključno je dati im očigledne činjenice."
13:59
So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with
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Dakle, optimistična poruka, glavna poanta s kojom se želim rastati od vas,
14:02
is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear,
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jest da očigledne činjenice doba strojeva postaju jasne,
14:06
and I have every confidence that we're going to use them
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i potpuno sam uvjeren da ćemo ih koristiti
14:08
to chart a good course into the challenging,
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i zacrtati dobar smjer u izazovno,
14:11
abundant economy that we're creating.
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obilno gospodarstvo kakvo stvaramo.
14:14
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam najljepša.
14:15
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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