What will future jobs look like? | Andrew McAfee

1,260,788 views ใƒป 2013-06-20

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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๋ฒˆ์—ญ: K Bang ๊ฒ€ํ† : Suein Lee
00:12
The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,
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์ž‘๊ฐ€์ธ ์กฐ์ง€ ์—˜๋ฆฌ์—‡์€
00:15
among all forms of mistake,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ €์ง€๋ฅด๋Š” ์‹ค์ˆ˜ ์ค‘์—์„œ
00:17
prophesy is the most gratuitous.
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์˜ˆ์–ธ์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ์‹ค์ˆ˜๋ผ๊ณ  ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:19
The person that we would all acknowledge
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ์˜ ์กฐ์ง€ ์—˜๋ฆฌ์—‡์œผ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง„
00:21
as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.
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์š”๊ธฐ ๋ฒ ๋ผ๋„ ์ด์— ๋™์˜ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:25
He said, "It's tough to make predictions,
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๊ทธ๋Š” "๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜ˆ์ธก์€
00:27
especially about the future."
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์–ธ์ œ๋‚˜ ํž˜๋“  ์ผ"์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
00:30
I'm going to ignore their cautions
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๋“ค์˜ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๋ฌด์‹œํ•˜๊ณ 
๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์ธ ์˜ˆ์–ธ์„ ํ•ด๋ณด๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:32
and make one very specific forecast.
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00:34
In the world that we are creating very quickly,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ์ฐฝ์กฐํ•ด๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„์—๋Š”
00:36
we're going to see more and more things
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๊ณต์ƒ ๊ณผํ•™ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ผ์ด ์ ์  ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
00:38
that look like science fiction,
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00:40
and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.
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์ง์—…์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ณด์ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ ์  ์ค„์–ด๋“ค ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:43
Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,
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์ž๋™์ฐจ๋Š” ๊ณง ์Šค์Šค๋กœ ์šด์ „ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
00:46
which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.
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์ด๋Š” ํŠธ๋Ÿญ ์šด์ „์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:48
We're going to hook Siri up to Watson
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์™“์Šจ์— ์‹œ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐํ•˜์—ฌ
00:51
and use that to automate a lot of the work
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ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ณ ๊ฐ ์„œ๋น„์Šค ์ƒ๋‹ด์›์ด๋‚˜
00:53
that's currently done by customer service reps
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๋ฌธ์ œ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ ๋‹ด๋‹น์ž๋“ค์ด ํ•˜๋Š”
00:55
and troubleshooters and diagnosers,
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๋งŽ์€ ์ผ์„ ์ž๋™ํ™”ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:58
and we're already taking R2D2,
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๋˜ํ•œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ R2D2๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์—ฌ
01:00
painting him orange, and putting him to work
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์ฃผํ™ฉ์ƒ‰์œผ๋กœ ์น ํ•˜๊ณ 
01:04
carrying shelves around warehouses,
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์ฐฝ๊ณ ์—์„œ ์„ ๋ฐ˜์„ ์˜ฎ๊ธฐ๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:06
which means we need a lot fewer people
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์ด๋Š” ๋ณต๋„๋ฅผ ์˜ค๊ฐ€์•ผ ํ•  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด
01:08
to be walking up and down those aisles.
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๊ฑฐ์˜ ํ•„์š”์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:10
Now, for about 200 years,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ง€๋‚œ 200์—ฌ ๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ
01:14
people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐฉ๊ธˆ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฐ ๋‚ด์šฉ์„ ๋งํ•ด ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:16
the age of technological unemployment is at hand โ€”
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'๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํ˜์‹ ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์‹ค์—…์˜ ์‹œ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ๋จธ์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค.'
01:19
starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain
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2์„ธ๊ธฐ ์ „ ์˜๊ตญ์—์„œ ์ง์กฐ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ•์‚ด๋‚ธ ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ค์ดํŠธ๊ฐ€
01:22
just about two centuries ago,
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๊ทธ ์‹œ์ž‘์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
01:23
and they have been wrong.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ํ‹€๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:25
Our economies in the developed world have coasted along
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์„ ์ง„๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋Š”
01:28
on something pretty close to full employment.
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์™„์ „ ๊ณ ์šฉ์— ๊ฐ€๊น๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:30
Which brings up a critical question:
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์ด๋Š” ๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ์ œ๊ธฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:32
Why is this time different, if it really is?
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ์™œ ๋‹ค๋ฅผ๊นŒ?
01:35
The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,
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๊ทธ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋“ค์ด ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ช‡ ๋…„ ์‚ฌ์ด
01:38
our machines have started demonstrating skills
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์ด์ „์—๋Š” ์ „ํ˜€ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ–ˆ๋˜
01:40
they have never, ever had before:
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๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ฐœํœ˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:43
understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,
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์ดํ•ดํ•˜๊ธฐ, ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ, ๋“ฃ๊ธฐ, ๋ณด๊ธฐ
01:46
answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.
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๋Œ€๋‹ตํ•˜๊ธฐ, ์“ฐ๊ธฐ ์ด์™ธ์—๋„ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ์Šต๋“ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€์š”.
01:50
For example, mobile humanoid robots
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด, ์ด๋™์‹ ์ธ๊ฐ„ํ˜• ๋กœ๋ด‡์€
01:53
are still incredibly primitive,
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์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋งค์šฐ ์›์‹œ์ ์ด์ง€๋งŒ
01:55
but the research arm of the Defense Department
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๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์€
01:57
just launched a competition
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์ด์ œ ๋ง‰ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:58
to have them do things like this,
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๋กœ๋ด‡๋“ค์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์„ ํ•˜๋„๋ก ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
02:00
and if the track record is any guide,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‹คํ–‰ ์ž๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ค ์ง€ํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
02:02
this competition is going to be successful.
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์ด ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์€ ์„ฑ๊ณต์ ์ผ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:05
So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all
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์ฃผ๋ณ€์„ ๋‘˜๋Ÿฌ๋ณด๋ฉด, ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋‚ ์ด ๋ฉ€์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:08
when we're going to have androids
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์•ˆ๋“œ๋กœ์ด๋“œ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ 
02:10
doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.
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์ง€๊ธˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋งŽ์€ ์ผ๋“ค์„ ๋Œ€์‹  ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•  ๋‚ ์ด์š”.
02:13
And we're creating a world where there is going to be
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฐฝ์กฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„๋Š”
02:17
more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.
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๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๊ณผ ๋” ์ ์€ ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ณณ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:21
It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling
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์—๋ฆญ ๋น„์š˜์šœํ”„์Šจ๊ณผ ์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์„
02:23
"the new machine age."
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'์‹  ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ์‹œ๋Œ€'๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:24
The thing to keep in mind is that
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๋ช…์‹ฌํ•  ์ ์€
02:27
this is absolutely great news.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„์ฃผ ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:29
This is the best economic news on the planet these days.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์š”์ฆ˜ ์ง€๊ตฌ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์†Œ์‹์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:32
Not that there's a lot of competition, right?
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๊ฒฝ์Ÿํ• ๊ฒŒ ๋งŽ์€ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์š”, ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ ?
02:36
This is the best economic news we have these days
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์š”์ฆ˜ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์†Œ์‹์ธ ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€
02:38
for two main reasons.
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๋‘๊ฐ€์ง€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:39
The first is, technological progress is what allows us
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์ฒซ์งธ, ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์  ์ง„๋ณด๋Š”
02:42
to continue this amazing recent run that we're on
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์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์ง€๋‚ ์ˆ˜๋ก ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ
02:46
where output goes up over time,
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์ตœ๊ทผ์˜ ์ด ๋†€๋ผ์šด ํ–‰๋ณด๊ฐ€ ์ง€์†๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:49
while at the same time, prices go down,
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๋™์‹œ์—, ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ๋‚ด๋ ค๊ฐ€๊ณ 
02:52
and volume and quality just continue to explode.
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์–‘๊ณผ ์งˆ์€ ํญ๋ฐœ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:56
Now, some people look at this and talk about
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์–ด๋–ค ์ด๋“ค์€ ์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด๊ณ 
02:58
shallow materialism,
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์–„ํŒํ•œ ๋ฌผ์งˆ๋งŒ๋Šฅ์ฃผ์˜๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
03:00
but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ์ž˜๋ชป๋œ ์‹œ๊ฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:02
This is abundance, which is exactly
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ํ’์š”์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:05
what we want our economic system to provide.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์ฒด์ œ์—์„œ ์›ํ•˜๋˜ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€์š”.
03:08
The second reason that the new machine age
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์ด ์‹  ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ์‹œ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์ธ ๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ด์œ ๋Š”,
03:11
is such great news is that, once the androids
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์•ˆ๋“œ๋กœ์ด๋“œ๊ฐ€ ์ผ์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๊ธฐ๋งŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋” ์ด์ƒ ๊ทธ ์ผ์„ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•„๋„ ๋˜๊ณ 
03:14
start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,
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ํž˜๋“ค๊ณ  ๋‹จ์กฐ๋กœ์šด ์ผ์—์„œ ํ•ด๋ฐฉ๋˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:17
and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋ฉด
03:21
Now, when I talk about this with my friends
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03:23
in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,
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์ผ€์ž„๋ธŒ๋ฆฌ์ง€์™€ ์‹ค๋ฆฌ์ฝ˜ ๋ฒจ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์นœ๊ตฌ๋“ค์€
03:25
"Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.
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'๋ฉ‹์ง€๊ตฐ. ํž˜๋“  ํ—ˆ๋“œ๋ ›์ผ์ด ์—†์–ด์ง„๋‹ค๋‹ˆ.
03:27
This gives us the chance to imagine
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์™„์ „ํžˆ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ข…๋ฅ˜์˜
03:29
an entirely different kind of society,
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์‚ฌํšŒ๋ฅผ ๊ทธ๋ ค๋ณผ ๊ธฐํšŒ์•ผ.
03:32
a society where the creators and the discoverers
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์ฐฝ์กฐ์ž์™€ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ 
03:35
and the performers and the innovators
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ํ–‰๋™๊ฐ€์™€ ํ˜์‹ ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€
03:36
come together with their patrons and their financiers
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ํ›„์›์ž, ๊ธˆ์œต์—…์ž์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜
03:40
to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,
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์Ÿ์ , ํฅ๋ฏธ, ๊ณ„๋ชฝ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์„œ๋กœ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•˜๋ฉฐ
03:43
provoke each other."
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์„œ๋กœ๋ฅผ ์ž๊ทนํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌํšŒ๋ง์ผ์„ธ.'
03:45
It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌํšŒ๋Š” TED ์ปจํผ๋Ÿฐ์Šค์™€ ์•„์ฃผ ๋น„์Šทํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:49
And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ์—„์ฒญ๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŽ์€ ์ง„์‹ค์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:52
We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋†€๋ผ์šด ๋ฒˆ์˜์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:55
In a world where it is just about as easy
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๋ฌผ๊ฑด์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด๋‚ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
03:57
to generate an object as it is to print a document,
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๋ฌธ์„œ๋ฅผ ์ธ์‡„ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋งŒํผ ์‰ฌ์šด ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ
04:00
we have amazing new possibilities.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋†€๋ž๊ณ  ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๋“ค์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:02
The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists
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๊ธฐ๋Šฅ๊ณต์ด๋‚˜ ์ทจ๋ฏธ๊ฐ€์˜€๋˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
04:06
are now makers, and they're responsible
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์ด์ œ ์ œ์กฐ๊ฐ€์ด์ž
04:08
for massive amounts of innovation.
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์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ํ˜์‹ ์˜ ์žฅ๋ณธ์ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:10
And artists who were formerly constrained
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๋˜ํ•œ ์ œํ•œ์„ ๋ฐ›๋˜ ์˜ˆ์ˆ ๊ฐ€๋“ค์€
04:13
can now do things that were never, ever possible
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์ด์ „์—๋Š” ์ ˆ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„
04:16
for them before.
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ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:18
So this is a time of great flourishing,
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์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ์œ„๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ์˜์˜ ์‹œ๋Œ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:20
and the more I look around, the more convinced I become
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์ฃผ๋ณ€์„ ๋‘˜๋Ÿฌ๋ณผ์ˆ˜๋ก ์ €๋Š” ๋” ํ™•์‹ ์ด ๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:23
that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,
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๋ฌผ๋ฆฌํ•™์ž ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋จผ ๋‹ค์ด์Šจ์˜ ์ด ์ธ์šฉ๋ฌธ์€
04:26
is not hyperbole at all.
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์ „ํ˜€ ๊ณผ์žฅ๋œ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ์—์š”.
04:28
This is just a plain statement of the facts.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค ๊ทธ๋Œ€๋กœ์˜ ์ง„์ˆ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์šฐ๋ฆฐ ๋†€๋ผ์šด ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์šด๋ฐ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:31
We are in the middle of an astonishing period.
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["๊ธฐ์ˆ ์€ ์‹ ์˜ ์„ ๋ฌผ์ด๋‹ค. ์‚ถ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์„ ๋ฌผ ์ดํ›„ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์œ„๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‹ ์˜ ์„ ๋ฌผ์ด๋‹ค.
04:32
["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." โ€” Freeman Dyson]
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฌธ๋ช…, ์˜ˆ์ˆ  ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ณผํ•™์˜ ์–ด๋จธ๋‹ˆ์ด๋‹ค."- ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋จผ ๋‹ค์ด์Šจ]
04:33
Which brings up another great question:
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ์ œ๊ธฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:36
What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?
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์ด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์˜ ์‹œ๋Œ€์— ๋ฌด์—‡์ด ์ž˜๋ชป๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒ ๋Š”๊ฐ€?
04:39
Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ ? ์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์€ํ‡ดํ•˜๊ณ , ๋ฒˆ์˜ํ•˜์ฃ . ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ์ „๋ถ€์—์š”.
04:42
We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ •๋ง๋กœ ๊ณจ์น˜์•„ํ”ˆ ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ์ง๋ฉดํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:45
as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด๋‚ด๋Š” ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋กœ ๊นŠ์ด ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐˆ์ˆ˜๋ก ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
04:48
The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized
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์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:51
in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ํ—จ๋ฆฌ ํฌ๋“œ 2์„ธ์™€
04:54
between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,
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์ž๋™์ฐจ ๋…ธ์กฐ ๋Œ€ํ‘œ์˜€๋˜ ์›”ํ„ฐ ๋ฃจ์„œ๊ฐ€
04:57
who was the head of the auto workers union.
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์ฃผ๊ณ ๋ฐ›์€ ๋Œ€ํ™”์— ์ž˜ ์š”์•ฝ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:00
They were touring one of the new modern factories,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ํ•œ ๊ทผ๋Œ€์  ๊ณต์žฅ์„ ๋‘˜๋Ÿฌ๋ณด๋Š” ์ค‘์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:02
and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,
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ํฌ๋“œ๋Š” ์žฅ๋‚œ์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ๋ฃจ์„œ์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฌผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:05
"Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots
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"์ด๋ด ์›”ํ„ฐ, ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ด ๋กœ๋ด‡๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ์„œ
05:07
to pay union dues?"
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์กฐํ•ฉ๋น„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์•„๋‚ผํ…๊ฐ€?"
05:09
And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ์ž ๋ฃจ์„œ๊ฐ€ ์˜์•„๋ถ™์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. "๊ทธ๋Ÿผ, ํ—จ๋ฆฌ.
05:11
how are you going to get them to buy cars?"
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ๊ฒŒ ํ• ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?"
05:15
Reuther's problem in that anecdote
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์ด ์ผํ™”์—์„œ ๋ฃจ์„œ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒช๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š”
05:18
is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy
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๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋“์ฐฌ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์— ๋…ธ๋™์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
05:22
that's full of machines,
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ํž˜๋“ค๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ ,
05:24
and we see this very clearly in the statistics.
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์ด๋Š” ํ†ต๊ณ„์—๋„ ๋ถ„๋ช…ํžˆ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:26
If you look over the past couple decades
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์ง€๋‚œ ์ด์‹ญ ๋…„์„ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด
05:29
at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --
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์ž๋ณธ ๋ฐ˜ํ™˜์ , ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด ๊ณต๋™ ์ด์œค์€
05:32
we see them going up,
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์ƒ์Šนํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
05:34
and we see that they're now at an all-time high.
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ํ˜„์žฌ ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:36
If we look at the returns to labor, in other words
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ํ•œํŽธ ๊ทผ๋กœ์ž๋ฅผ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด, ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด
05:39
total wages paid out in the economy,
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๊ฒฝ์ œ์—์„œ ์ž„๊ธˆ์˜ ์ด์•ก์€
05:41
we see them at an all-time low
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์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ์ €์ด๊ณ 
05:43
and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.
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๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํžˆ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ ํ–ฅํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:46
So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฃจ์„œ์—๊ฒŒ ๋ถ„๋ช…ํžˆ ๋‚˜์œ ์†Œ์‹์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:48
It looks like it might be great news for Ford,
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ํฌ๋“œ์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ณด์ผ์ง€๋„ ๋ชจ๋ฅด์ง€๋งŒ,
05:52
but it's actually not. If you want to sell
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๊ผญ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๋งŒ์ผ ๋น„์‹ผ ์ œํ’ˆ์„ ๋งŽ์ด ํŒ”๊ณ  ์‹ถ๋‹ค๋ฉด
05:54
huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,
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05:57
you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.
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์•ˆ์ •์ ์ด๊ณ  ๋ฒˆ์˜ํ•œ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์ค‘์‚ฐ์ธต์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๊ฒ ์ฃ .
06:01
We have had one of those in America
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์‹œ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
06:03
for just about the entire postwar period.
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์˜ค์ง ์ „ํ›„ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ ๋ฟ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:06
But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.
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์ง€๊ธˆ์˜ ์ค‘์‚ฐ์ธต์€ ํฐ ์œ„ํ—˜์— ์ฒ˜ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:10
We all know a lot of the statistics,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ํ†ต๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ
06:12
but just to repeat one of them,
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๊ทธ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋ฅผ ์–˜๊ธฐํ•˜์ž๋ฉด,
06:14
median income in America has actually gone down
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์ง€๋‚œ 15๋…„๊ฐ„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ค‘๊ฐ„ ์†Œ๋“์€
06:17
over the past 15 years,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ ๋‚ฎ์•„์กŒ์œผ๋ฉฐ,
06:18
and we're in danger of getting trapped
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์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ํ๋ฆ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์•…ํ™”๋˜๋Š”
06:20
in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization
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๋ถˆ๊ท ๋“ฑ๊ณผ ์–‘๊ทนํ™”์˜ ์•…์ˆœํ™˜์—
06:24
continue to go up over time.
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๊ฐ‡ํ˜€๋ฒ„๋ฆด ์œ„ํ—˜์— ์ฒ˜ํ•ด์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:27
The societal challenges that come along
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋ถˆ๊ท ๋“ฑ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜
06:30
with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.
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์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์ด ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:32
There are a set of societal challenges
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๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ
06:34
that I'm actually not that worried about,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ ๊ฑฑ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์•„๋‹ˆ์ง€์š”.
06:36
and they're captured by images like this.
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๊ทธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ด๋ฏธ์ง€์— ๊ฐ‡ํ˜€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:38
This is not the kind of societal problem
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์šฐ๋ คํ•˜๋Š”
06:40
that I am concerned about.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:42
There is no shortage of dystopian visions
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๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋“ค์ด ์ž๊ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ€์ ธ
06:45
about what happens when our machines become self-aware,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๋Œ€ํ•ญํ•˜๋ฉด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ ์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ
06:48
and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.
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๋””์Šคํ† ํ”ผ์•„์  ์ƒ์ƒ๋ ฅ์—๋Š” ๋์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:51
I'm going to start worrying about those
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์ €๋„ ๊ฑฑ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:53
the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.
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์ œ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ํ”„๋ฆฐํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ธ์‹ํ•˜๋Š” ๋‚ ์ด ์˜จ๋‹ค๋ฉด์š”.
06:56
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(์›ƒ์Œ) (๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
07:00
So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฑฑ์ •ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:03
To tell you the kinds of societal challenges
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์˜ ์‹œ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ• 
07:06
that are going to come up in the new machine age,
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์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
07:08
I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.
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๋Œ€ํ‘œ์ ์ธ ๋‘ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋…ธ๋™์ž์˜ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:12
And to make them really stereotypical,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์„ ์ „ํ˜•์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
07:13
let's make them both white guys.
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๋‘ ๋ช… ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋ฐฑ์ธ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค.
07:15
And the first one is a college-educated
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์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ๋Œ€ํ•™ ๊ต์œก์„ ๋ฐ›์€
07:19
professional, creative type, manager,
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์ „๋ฌธ์ง, ์ฐฝ์˜์ ์ธ ์œ ํ˜•, ๊ฒฝ์˜์ž,
07:22
engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.
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๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ž, ์˜์‚ฌ, ๋ณ€ํ˜ธ์‚ฌ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋…ธ๋™์ž๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:25
We're going to call him "Ted."
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ฅผ ํ…Œ๋“œ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฅด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:28
He's at the top of the American middle class.
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ค‘์‚ฐ์ธต์˜ ์ƒ์œ„์— ์†ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:30
His counterpart is not college-educated
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๊ทธ์˜ ์ƒ๋Œ€๋Š” ๋Œ€ํ•™ ๊ต์œก์„ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๊ณ 
07:33
and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,
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์ž„๊ธˆ ๋…ธ๋™์ž๋กœ ์ผํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ ์›์œผ๋กœ ์ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:36
does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.
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๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ณ„์—์„œ๋Š” ํ™”์ดํŠธ์นผ๋ผ๋‚˜ ๋ธ”๋ฃจ์นผ๋ผ๋กœ ์ข…์‚ฌํ•˜์ง€์š”.
07:39
We're going to call that guy "Bill."
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ๋นŒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฅด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:41
And if you go back about 50 years,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ 50๋…„ ์ „์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ„๋‹ค๋ฉด
07:44
Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.
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๋นŒ๊ณผ ํ…Œ๋“œ๋Š” ๋†€๋ž๋„๋ก ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ์ƒํ™œ์„ ํ–ˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:47
For example, in 1960 they were both very likely
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด, 1960๋…„์—๋Š” ๋‘˜ ๋‹ค
07:50
to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.
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์ „์ž„์ธ ์ง์—…์ด ์žˆ๊ณ , ์ฃผ๋‹น ์ตœ์†Œ 40์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์ผํ–ˆ๊ฒ ์ง€์š”.
07:53
But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์‚ฌํšŒ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์› ์ฐฐ์Šค ๋จธ๋ ˆ์ด๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋“ฏ์ด
07:57
as we started to automate the economy,
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๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ž๋™ํ™”๋˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๊ณ 
07:59
and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,
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1960๋…„์— ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ์—…๋ฌด์— ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ
08:04
as we started to progressively inject technology
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์ ์ฐจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ๋„์ž…๋˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๊ณ 
08:07
and automation and digital stuff into the economy,
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์ž๋™ํ™”์™€ ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ๊ธฐ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋กœ ์ง„์ž…ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜์ž
08:09
the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.
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๋นŒ๊ณผ ํ…Œ๋“œ์˜ ์šด๋ช…์€ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:12
Over this time frame, Ted has continued
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์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์ง€๋‚˜๋ฉด์„œ, ํ…Œ๋“œ๋Š”
08:14
to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.
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์ „์ž„์ธ ์ง์žฅ์„ ์ง€์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋นŒ์€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์ฃ .
08:17
In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,
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๋งŽ์€ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ๋นŒ์€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ํ™œ๋™์„ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ๊ทธ๋งŒ๋‘์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
08:21
and Ted very rarely has.
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ํ…Œ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๊ณ ์š”.
08:24
Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.
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์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ํ๋ฅด๋ฉด์„œ ํ…Œ๋“œ์˜ ๊ฒฐํ˜ผ ์ƒํ™œ์€ ๊ฝค ํ–‰๋ณตํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์œ ์ง€๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:27
Bill's hasn't.
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๋นŒ์€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:29
And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,
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๋˜ํ•œ ํ…Œ๋“œ์˜ ์ž๋…€๊ฐ€ ์–‘์ชฝ ๋ถ€๋ชจ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์ •์—์„œ ์ž๋ผ๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ
08:32
while Bill's absolutely have not over time.
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๋นŒ์˜ ์ž๋…€๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์— ์ง€๋‚จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ „ํ˜€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:35
Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?
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๋นŒ์ด ์‚ฌํšŒ์—์„œ ๋‚™์˜ค๋œ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ƒํ™ฉ๋“ค์€์š”?
08:38
He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์„ ๊ฑฐ์—์„œ ํˆฌํ‘œ๊ถŒ์„ ์žƒ์–ด๊ฐ”๊ณ 
08:41
and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.
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๋” ์ž์ฃผ ๊ฐ์˜ฅ์— ๊ฐ€๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:45
So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ์ถ”์„ธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ข‹์€ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:49
and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์Šค์Šค๋กœ๋ฅผ ๋’ค๋ฐ”๊ฟ€ ์กฐ์ง์„ ๋ณด์ด์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:52
They're also true no matter which ethnic group
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์–ด๋–ค ์ธ์ข… ์ง‘๋‹จ์ด๋‚˜
08:55
or demographic group we look at,
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์ธ๊ตฌ์ธต์„ ๋ณด๋“  ์ƒ๊ด€์—†์ด
08:57
and they're actually getting so severe
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€ํ•ญ๋ ฅ์  ์œ„ํ—˜์—
08:59
that they're in danger of overwhelming
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์ฒ˜ํ•ด์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๋˜ํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:00
even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ธ๊ถŒ์šด๋™์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด๋‚ธ ๋†€๋ผ์šด ์ง„์ „์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ ์š”.
09:04
And what my friends in Silicon Valley
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์‹ค๋ฆฌ์ฝ˜ ๋ฐธ๋ฆฌ์™€ ์ผ€์ž„๋ธŒ๋ฆฌ์ง€์˜ ์นœ๊ตฌ๋“ค์ด
09:07
and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.
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๊ฐ„๊ณผํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ํ…Œ๋“œ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:12
They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ”์˜๊ณ  ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ ์ธ ์‚ถ์„ ์‚ด๋ฉฐ
09:15
and they've got all the benefits to show from that,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ฃผ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ํ˜œํƒ์„ ๋ˆ„๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:18
while Bill is leading a very different life.
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๋นŒ์ด ์ „ํ˜€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ถ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ์—์š”.
09:20
They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was
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๊ทธ ๋‘˜์€ ๋ณผํ…Œ๋ฅด๊ฐ€ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•œ ๋…ธ๋™์˜ ํ˜œํƒ์ด
09:22
when he talked about the benefits of work,
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์˜ณ์€์ง€ ์ฆ๋ช…ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:25
and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.
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๋…ธ๋™์€ ๋ฌด๋ ค ์„ธ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์•…์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์›ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:28
["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." โ€” Voltaire]
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["๋…ธ๋™์€ ์„ธ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์•…, ์ฆ‰ ์ง€๋ฃจํ•จ๊ณผ ๋ถ€๋„๋•, ๊ฐ€๋‚œ์„ ์ œ๊ฑฐํ•œ๋‹ค" - ๋ณผํ…Œ๋ฅด]
09:29
So with these challenges, what do we do about them?
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋ฌด์—‡์„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
09:32
The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,
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๊ฒฝ์ œ ๊ณ„ํš์€ ๋†€๋ž๋„๋ก ๋ถ„๋ช…ํ•˜๊ณ 
09:35
surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.
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๋†€๋ž๋„๋ก ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š”์š”.
09:38
The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,
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๋กœ๋ด‡์ด ์ผ ์ด๋…„ ๋‚ด์— ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ผ์„ ๋นผ์•—์ง„ ๋ชปํ•  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:41
so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์ „ํ˜•์ ์ธ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์„œ๋„ ๊ดœ์ฐฎ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:46
Encourage entrepreneurship,
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์‚ฌ์—…๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๋…๋ คํ•˜๊ณ ,
09:48
double down on infrastructure,
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๊ณต๊ณต๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์‹œ์„ค์„ ๋‘ ๋ฐฐ๋กœ ๋Š˜๋ฆฌ๊ณ ,
09:50
and make sure we're turning out people
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ 
09:52
from our educational system with the appropriate skills.
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๊ต์œก์ œ๋„๋ฅผ ์กธ์—…ํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
09:55
But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง„์ž…ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€
09:58
that's heavy on technology and light on labor,
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๋งค์šฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ ์ด๊ณ  ๋…ธ๋™์ด ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋ถˆํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด,
10:01
and we are, then we have to consider
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ข€ ๋” ๊ธ‰์ง„์ ์ธ ์กฐ์ •์„
10:04
some more radical interventions,
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๊ณ ๋ คํ•ด์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:05
for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด, ์ตœ์ € ์ˆ˜์ž… ๋ณด์žฅ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
10:09
Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ ๋ถˆํŽธํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ• ์ง€๋„ ๋ชจ๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:12
because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing
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๊ทธ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๊ฐ€ ๊ทน๋‹จ์  ์ขŒํŒŒ์™€ ์—ฐ๊ด€์ด ์žˆ๊ณ 
10:16
and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.
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๋ถ€์˜ ์žฌ๋ถ„๋ฐฐ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ฝค ๊ธ‰์ง„์  ์ œ๋„๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
10:19
I did a little bit of research on this notion,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ด ๊ฐœ๋…์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
10:21
and it might calm some folk down to know that
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์•„๋งˆ ์ง„์ •์ด ์ข€ ๋˜์‹ค ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:24
the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income
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์ตœ์ € ์ˆ˜์ž… ๋ณด์žฅ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐ์€
10:26
has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists
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๊ฑฐํ’ˆ์„ ๋ฌธ ์‚ฌํšŒ์ฃผ์˜์ž๋“ค์— ์˜ํ•ด ์˜นํ˜ธ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:30
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.
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ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋“œ๋ฆฌํžˆ ํ•˜์ด์—ํฌ, ๋ฆฌ์ฒ˜๋“œ ๋‹‰์Šจ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฐ€ํŠผ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋“œ๋จผ์ด์š”.
10:35
And if you find yourself worried
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ๊ฑฑ์ •์ด
10:37
that something like a guaranteed income
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์ˆ˜์ž… ๋ณด์žฅ ์ œ๋„ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ์ด
10:40
is going to stifle our drive to succeed
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์„ฑ๊ณต์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜์ง€๋ฅผ ์ €ํ•˜์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ 
10:42
and make us kind of complacent,
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ํ˜„์‹ค์— ์•ˆ์ฃผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋ฉด
10:44
you might be interested to know that social mobility,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ์œ ๋™์„ฑ,
10:47
one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋งค์šฐ ์ž๋ž‘์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์ง€๋งŒ
10:50
is now lower than it is in the northern European countries
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์ด์ œ๋Š” ๋ถ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‚ฎ์•„์ง„
10:53
that have these very generous social safety nets.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์•„์ฃผ ๊ด€๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‚ฌํšŒ ์•ˆ์ „๋ง์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์งˆ์ง€๋„ ๋ชจ๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:56
So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.
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๊ฒฝ์ œ ๊ณ„ํš์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค ๊ฝค ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:59
The societal one is a lot more challenging.
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์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๊ณ„ํš์ด ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ํž˜๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:02
I don't know what the playbook is
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์ €๋Š” ๋นŒ์ด ๊ณ ์šฉ๋˜๊ณ  ์ผ์ƒ๋™์•ˆ ์ผํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ํ•„์š”ํ•œ
11:04
for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.
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๊ณ„ํš์ด ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ์ง€ ๋ชจ๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:08
I do know that education is a huge part of it.
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๊ต์œก์ด ํฐ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์••๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:11
I witnessed this firsthand.
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์ €๋Š” ์ง์ ‘ ๋ชฉ๊ฒฉํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:12
I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education,
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๊ต์œก์„ ๋ฐ›๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•œ ์ฒ˜์Œ ๋ช‡๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ์ €๋Š” ๋ชฌํ…Œ์†Œ๋ฆฌ์— ๋‹ค๋…”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:16
and what that education taught me
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๊ทธ๊ณณ์ด ์ €์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์นœ ๊ฒƒ์€
11:18
is that the world is an interesting place
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์„ธ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ๊ณณ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
11:20
and my job is to go explore it.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ œ ์ง์—…์€ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ณณ์„ ํƒํ—˜ํ•˜๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€์š”.
11:22
The school stopped in third grade,
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๋ชฌํ…Œ์†Œ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 3ํ•™๋…„๋•Œ ๊ทธ๋งŒ๋‘์—ˆ๊ณ 
11:24
so then I entered the public school system,
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๊ณต๋ฆฝ ํ•™๊ต์— ์ž…ํ•™ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:26
and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag.
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๋งˆ์น˜ ๊ฐ•์ œ ๋…ธ๋™ ์ˆ˜์šฉ์†Œ๋กœ ๋ณด๋‚ด์ง„ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธฐ๋ถ„์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
11:30
With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job
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๋Œ์ด์ผœ๋ณด๋ฉด, ํ•™๊ต๊ฐ€ ์ €๋ฅผ
11:33
was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer,
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์ ์›์ด๋‚˜ ์ž„๊ธˆ๋…ธ๋™์ž๋กœ ์‚ด๋„๋ก ๋Œ€๋น„์‹œ์ผฐ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ์ง€๋งŒ,
11:36
but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of
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๊ทธ๋•Œ๋Š” ํ•™๊ต๊ฐ€ ์ œ ์ฃผ๋ณ€์—์„œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ผ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•ด
11:38
bore me into some submission with what was going on around me.
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์ €๋ฅผ ๊ตด๋ณต์‹œ์ผœ ์ง€๊ฒน๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:42
We have to do better than this.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ์ž˜ํ•ด์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:43
We cannot keep turning out Bills.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋นŒ์ด ๋˜์–ด์„œ๋Š” ์•ˆ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:47
So we see some green shoots that things are getting better.
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์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ๋‚˜์•„์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ์กฐ์ง์ด ๋ณด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:49
We see technology deeply impacting education
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๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ๊ต์œก์— ๊นŠ์€ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๊ณ 
11:52
and engaging people, from our youngest learners
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์•„์ฃผ ์–ด๋ฆฐ ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋‚˜์ด ๋งŽ์€ ํ•™์ƒ๋“ค๊นŒ์ง€
11:55
up to our oldest ones.
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์ฐธ์—ฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ณด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:57
We see very prominent business voices telling us
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์•„์ฃผ ์œ ๋งํ•œ ๊ธฐ์—…์ด ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๋ชฉ์†Œ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋“ค๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:59
we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while.
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ํ•œ๋™์•ˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์• ์ง€์ค‘์ง€ ํ’ˆ์–ด์™”๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ ์š”.
12:02
And we see very serious and sustained
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์•„์ฃผ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ํ•œ๊ฒฐ๊ฐ™์€
12:05
and data-driven efforts to understand
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๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์ด ๋ณด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:07
how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ ์ธ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆํ‹ฐ๋ฅผ ๋„์šธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ์ง€์š”.
12:11
So the green shoots are out there.
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๊ฐœ์„ ์˜ ์กฐ์ง์€ ๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:13
I don't want to pretend for a minute
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์ €๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ 
12:15
that what we have is going to be enough.
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๋งํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:17
We're facing very tough challenges.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ํž˜๋“  ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ์ง๋ฉดํ•ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
12:19
To give just one example, there are about five million Americans
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์ž๋ฉด, ์•ฝ 5๋งŒ๋ช…์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ์ด
12:22
who have been unemployed for at least six months.
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์ตœ์†Œํ•œ ์ง€๋‚œ 6๊ฐœ์›”๊ฐ„ ๊ณ ์šฉ๋˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์ง€์š”.
12:25
We're not going to fix things for them
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๊ทธ๋“ค์„ ๋ชฌํ…Œ์†Œ๋ฆฌ๋กœ ๋ณด๋‚ด
12:26
by sending them back to Montessori.
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๊ณ ์น˜์ž๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:28
And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world
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์ œ์ผ ์šฐ๋ ค๋˜๋Š” ์ ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ๋‚ด๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„๊ฐ€
12:31
where we're going to have glittering technologies
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๋ˆˆ๋ถ€์‹  ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๊ฐ€์กŒ์ง€๋งŒ
12:33
embedded in kind of a shabby society
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๋ณผํ’ˆ์—†๋Š” ์‚ฌํšŒ์— ๋ผ์›Œ์ ธ
12:36
and supported by an economy that generates inequality
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๊ธฐํšŒ ๋Œ€์‹  ๋ถˆํ‰๋“ฑ์„ ์กฐ์žฅํ•˜๋Š”
12:39
instead of opportunity.
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๊ฒฝ์ œ๋กœ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจ ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:40
But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ €๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:43
I think we're going to do something a lot better
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€ ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:44
for one very straightforward reason:
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์•„์ฃผ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•œ ์ด์œ ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ์š”.
12:47
The facts are getting out there.
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์ง„์‹ค์€ ๊ทธ ๊ณณ์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:49
The realities of this new machine age
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์ด ์‹  ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ํ˜„์‹ค๊ณผ
12:51
and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known.
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๊ฒฝ์ œ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ๋” ๋„๋ฆฌ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:54
If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things
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๊ทธ ๊ณผ์ •์„ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”ํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด
12:57
like have our best economists and policymakers
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์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ๋ฒ•๋ฅ ๊ฐ€๋“ค์„ ๋†“๊ณ 
13:00
play "Jeopardy!" against Watson.
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์™“์Šจ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ญํ•ด ํ€ด์ฆˆ์‡ผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•ด์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:02
We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์˜ํšŒ๋ฅผ ์ž๋™ ์šด์ „ํ•˜๋Š” ์ž๋™์ฐจ์— ํƒœ์›Œ ์—ฌํ–‰์— ๋ณด๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ฃ .
13:05
And if we do enough of these kinds of things,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋‚˜๋ฉด
13:07
the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different.
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์ƒํ™ฉ์ด ๋‹ฌ๋ผ์งˆ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋Š” ์ธ์‹์ด ๋“ค๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:11
And then we're off to the races,
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๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ ๊ฒฝ์ฃผ๋ฅผ ๋ฒŒ์ด๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
13:12
because I don't believe for a second
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์ €๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํž˜๋“  ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์žŠ์—ˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
13:15
that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges
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์‹œ๋„ํ•˜๊ธฐ์— ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋ƒ‰๋‹ดํ•œ ๋งˆ์Œ์ด ๋˜์–ด๋ฒ„๋ ธ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ์€ ์ ์ด
13:18
or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.
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๋‹จ ํ•œ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„๋„ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:22
I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths
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์ €๋Š” ๋ฐ”๋‹ค์™€ ์„ธ๊ธฐ๋กœ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌ๋˜์—ˆ๋˜ ๋ฌธ์žฅ๊ฐ€์˜
13:24
who were separated by an ocean and a century.
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์ธ์šฉ๊ตฌ๋กœ ์ €์˜ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:27
Let me end it with words from politicians
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๋น„์Šทํ•œ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ ์ง„ ์ •์น˜๊ฐ€์˜ ๋ง์„ ๋นŒ์–ด
13:29
who were similarly distant.
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์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋งˆ์น˜๋„๋ก ํ•˜์ฃ .
13:31
Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949,
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1949๋…„ ์œˆ์Šคํ„ด ์ฒ˜์น ์€ ์ œ ๋ชจ๊ต์ธ MIT์— ์™€์„œ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:34
and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses
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"์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด ๋•…์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„
13:37
of the people in every land to the table of abundance,
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ํ’์š”๋กญ๊ฒŒ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
13:40
it can only be by the tireless improvement
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์˜ค์ง ์ง€์น ์ค„ ๋ชจ๋ฅด๋Š” ์ง„๋ณด์— ์˜ํ•œ
13:43
of all of our means of technical production."
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๊ธฐ์ˆ ์  ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ ์ผ ๋ฟ์ด๋‹ค."
13:46
Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient.
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์•„๋ธŒ๋ผํ•จ ๋ง์ปจ์€ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์š”์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊นจ๋‹ฌ์•˜์ฃ .
13:49
He said, "I am a firm believer in the people.
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๊ทธ๋Š” ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. "๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฏผ์„ ๊ตณ๊ฒŒ ๋ฏฟ๋Š”๋‹ค.
13:52
If given the truth, they can be depended upon
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์‚ฌ์‹ค๋งŒ ์ œ๊ณตํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์–ด๋–ค ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์œ„๊ธฐ๋„
13:54
to meet any national crisis.
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๊ทน๋ณตํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
13:57
The great point is to give them the plain facts."
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์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์š”์ ์€ ๊ทธ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋ช…๋ฐฑํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค."
13:59
So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๊ป˜ ๋‚จ๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์š”์ ์€
14:02
is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear,
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์ด ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ๋ป”ํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ด ์ ์ฐจ ๋ช…๋ฐฑํ•ด์ง„๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:06
and I have every confidence that we're going to use them
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š” ํ™•์‹ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:08
to chart a good course into the challenging,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฌธ์ œ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ข‹์€ ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์„ ๊ณ„ํšํ•˜๊ณ 
ํ’์š”๋กœ์šด ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ์‚ฌ์šฉํ• ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„์š”.
14:11
abundant economy that we're creating.
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14:14
Thank you very much.
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๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:15
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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