What will future jobs look like? | Andrew McAfee

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

翻译人员: Zheqing Fang 校对人员: stas zhu

The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,

作家乔治·艾略特提醒我们，

among all forms of mistake,

在所有形式的错误中，

prophesy is the most gratuitous.

预言是最没有理由的。

The person that we would all acknowledge

我们都熟知的

as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.

20世纪的尤吉·贝拉，也同意这点。

He said, "It's tough to make predictions,

他说，“很难做出预测，

especially about the future."

尤其是关于未来"。

I'm going to ignore their cautions

不过我要无视这些提醒

and make one very specific forecast.

并作出一个非常具体的预测。

In the world that we are creating very quickly,

当今世界我们正在飞速创造，

we're going to see more and more things

我们会看到越来越多的新事物

that look like science fiction,

看起来像是科幻小说，

and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.

以及越来越少看起来像工作的事物。

Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,

我们的车很快要开始自动驾驶，

which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.

这意味着我们用不着那么多的卡车司机了。

We're going to hook Siri up to Watson

我们要把Siri和沃森（人工智能程序）结合

and use that to automate a lot of the work

用它来自动完成大量的工作

that's currently done by customer service reps

而这些工作目前通过客服人员

and troubleshooters and diagnosers,

维修人员和分析师来完成，

and we're already taking R2D2,

我们就已经造出了R2D2，

painting him orange, and putting him to work

把它涂成橙色，让它去工作

carrying shelves around warehouses,

将货架运往各地仓库，

which means we need a lot fewer people

这意味着我们需越来越少的人

to be walking up and down those aisles.

在那些通道上走来走去。

Now, for about 200 years,

迄今为止的 200多年，

people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --

人们一直在热议我现在所说的内容

the age of technological unemployment is at hand —

关于“技术性失业”的时代已经来临 — —

starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain

始于卢德派（反科技人士）在英国捣毁织布机

just about two centuries ago,

这发生在大约两个世纪前，

and they have been wrong.

但他们的预言错了。

Our economies in the developed world have coasted along

我们一路至今的经济发展

on something pretty close to full employment.

几乎是接近充分就业。

Which brings up a critical question:

这就引申出一个关键的问题：

Why is this time different, if it really is?

如果技术性失业是真的，那预言为何没有成真？

The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,

导致现实与预言不符的原因是，我们的机器

our machines have started demonstrating skills

在最近几年才开始展示出前所未有的技能

they have never, ever had before:

这些技能包括：

understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,

理解、说话、 听、 看、

answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.

应答、 写作，并且他们还在掌握新的技能。

For example, mobile humanoid robots

例如，移动的仿人机器人

are still incredibly primitive,

仍然很原始

but the research arm of the Defense Department

但国防部的研究机构

just launched a competition

刚刚启动了一项竞赛

to have them do things like this,

要这些机器人做上面的工作，

and if the track record is any guide,

如果跟踪记录是可以借鉴的，

this competition is going to be successful.

这次竞赛将会非常成功。

So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all

所以当我环顾四周，我觉得那天是不远了

when we're going to have androids

当我们通过机器人

doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.

做了很多我们现在在做的工作。

And we're creating a world where there is going to be

我们正在创造一个的技术越来越丰富

more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.

就业机会却越来越少的新世界

It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling

我和埃里克 · 布赖恩试图将其命名为

"the new machine age."

"新机器时代"。

The thing to keep in mind is that

要牢记的是，

this is absolutely great news.

这是非常好的消息。

This is the best economic news on the planet these days.

这是地球上最好的经济新闻。

Not that there's a lot of competition, right?

你会认为机器人带来了竞争，不是吗？

This is the best economic news we have these days

为何是最好的经济新闻

for two main reasons.

有两个主要原因。

The first is, technological progress is what allows us

第一是，技术进步使得我们

to continue this amazing recent run that we're on

继续维持令人惊叹的产出

where output goes up over time,

随着时间推移继续前进，

while at the same time, prices go down,

与此同时，物价却开始下降，

and volume and quality just continue to explode.

数量和质量都持续上升。

Now, some people look at this and talk about

现在，有些人看到这个会联想到

shallow materialism,

浅层的唯物主义，

but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.

但这绝对是错误的理解方式。

This is abundance, which is exactly

这种物质丰富

what we want our economic system to provide.

正是我们对现有经济体系的期待。

The second reason that the new machine age

第二个主要原因，

is such great news is that, once the androids

一旦机器人

start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,

开始承担工作，我们就不需要再插手，

and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.

我们可以从辛苦的劳动中解放出来。

Now, when I talk about this with my friends

现在，当我与剑桥和硅谷的朋友提起此事

in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,

他们认为，

"Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.

"太棒了。从此再没有辛苦，再没有劳累

This gives us the chance to imagine

这给了我们去想象

an entirely different kind of society,

一种全然不同的社会的机会

a society where the creators and the discoverers

那里，创造者和发现者

and the performers and the innovators

表演者和创新者

come together with their patrons and their financiers

与他们的赞助人和金融家们在一起

to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,

谈论的热门话题，娱乐和启蒙，

provoke each other."

彼此启迪"。

It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.

这样的社会，看起来很像 TED 大会。

And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.

实际上大量的真相就在这里。

We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.

我们看到了令人惊异的蓬勃发展。

In a world where it is just about as easy

在这个我们可以像

to generate an object as it is to print a document,

打印文档一样生成物体的世界，

we have amazing new possibilities.

我们有令人惊异的无限可能。

The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists

那些曾经的手艺人和业余爱好者

are now makers, and they're responsible

现在是决策者

for massive amounts of innovation.

负责大量的创新工作。

And artists who were formerly constrained

那些以前受到各种限制的艺术家

can now do things that were never, ever possible

可以尝试前所未有有的创作

for them before.

远胜先人。

So this is a time of great flourishing,

所以这是一个伟大的时期，

and the more I look around, the more convinced I become

我们环顾四周，越发相信

that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,

物理学家弗里曼 · 戴森的箴言

is not hyperbole at all.

一点都不夸张。

This is just a plain statement of the facts.

它只是对事实的平实陈述而已。

We are in the middle of an astonishing period.

我们正处在一个非常时期。

["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]

["技术是上帝的恩赐，是仅次于“生命”的恩典。它是文明、 艺术和科学的母亲"— — 弗里曼 · 戴森]

Which brings up another great question:

这就引出另一个大问题：

What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?

在这新的机器时代，哪些东西会走上岔路？

Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.

对吧？太好了，蓬勃发展，回家去。

We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges

我们要面对两大棘手的挑战

as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.

当进一步靠近我们正在创造的未来

The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized

首先是经济方面，

in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth

这通过一个杜撰的故事已经有很好的总结

between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,

故事关于亨利 · 福特二世（汽车生产商）

who was the head of the auto workers union.

和沃尔特·鲁瑟，汽车工人工会的领袖。

They were touring one of the new modern factories,

他们一起参观最现代化的汽车工厂，

and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,

然后福特开玩笑地对鲁瑟说：

"Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots

"嘿，沃尔特，你怎么让这些机器人

to pay union dues?"

来支付工会会费?"

And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,

鲁瑟回答，"嘿，亨利

how are you going to get them to buy cars?"

你怎么能让他们买你的车?"

Reuther's problem in that anecdote

在这个故事中，鲁瑟面临的问题

is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy

实质上是面对一个充满机器的经济体

that's full of machines,

很难去提供人的劳动。

and we see this very clearly in the statistics.

我们可以在统计数据中，非常清楚地看到。

If you look over the past couple decades

在过去的几十年

at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --

资本收益 — — 换言之，企业利润 — —

we see them going up,

我们看到它们在增长，

and we see that they're now at an all-time high.

而且目前正是历史最高水平。

If we look at the returns to labor, in other words

如果我们对比一下劳动力，换句话说

total wages paid out in the economy,

在经济体中，总工资的发放，

we see them at an all-time low

我们看到这一数据是空前的低

and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.

两者非常迅速地朝着相反方向偏离。

So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.

所以这就是鲁瑟的坏消息（工人少，会费少）。

It looks like it might be great news for Ford,

但看起来它可能是福特的好消息，

but it's actually not. If you want to sell

然而实际上不是。如果你想要卖出

huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,

数量巨大的昂贵商品，

you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.

你需要一个大型的、 稳定的、 繁荣的中产阶级。

We have had one of those in America

经历了整个战后时期

for just about the entire postwar period.

美国已经形成了这样一个中产阶级

But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.

但中产阶层显然正处在巨大的威胁中。

We all know a lot of the statistics,

我们都知道很多统计数据，

but just to repeat one of them,

只提其中一个，

median income in America has actually gone down

在美国，中产阶级收入的减少

over the past 15 years,

已经持续了15年，

and we're in danger of getting trapped

我们处在陷入持续恶化的

in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization

不平等与两极分化的

continue to go up over time.

恶性循环的危险之中

The societal challenges that come along

这些伴随不平等现象带来的

with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.

社会挑战值得关注。

There are a set of societal challenges

相比这些严峻的社会挑战

that I'm actually not that worried about,

我倒不会担心这种

and they're captured by images like this.

被机器人逆袭的危险。

This is not the kind of societal problem

这不是我所担心的

that I am concerned about.

那种社会问题。

There is no shortage of dystopian visions

这个世界从不缺

about what happens when our machines become self-aware,

当我们的机器拥有自我意识，

and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.

并决定崛起和发动对我们的攻击的反乌托邦式幻想

I'm going to start worrying about those

但我要开始担心的是

the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.

某一天我的电脑知道了打印机的存在。

(Laughter) (Applause)

（笑声）（掌声）

So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.

所以机器人的进攻并不是我们真正需要担心的。

To tell you the kinds of societal challenges

为了让大家对新机器时代的社会挑战

that are going to come up in the new machine age,

有更好的理解

I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.

我想讲一个故事，关于两个典型的美国工人。

And to make them really stereotypical,

为了使它们真正典型，

let's make them both white guys.

我们假设他们是两个白人。

And the first one is a college-educated

第一个是接受大学教育

professional, creative type, manager,

专业的、 创造性的类型，

engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.

管理者，工程师、 医生、 律师、 代表这类人群。

We're going to call him "Ted."

我们称他为"Ted"。

He's at the top of the American middle class.

他处在美国中产阶级的顶层。

His counterpart is not college-educated

预制对应的是未经大学教育的

and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,

普通工人和职员，

does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.

低级白领或蓝领工作者。

We're going to call that guy "Bill."

我们称他为"Bill"。

And if you go back about 50 years,

如果在 50 年前，

Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.

Bill和Ted这两种人的生活差别不大。

For example, in 1960 they were both very likely

例如，在 1960 年他们两人都很有可能

to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.

有全职工作，一周工作 40 个小时。

But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,

但根据社会研究员查尔斯 · 默里的记载，

as we started to automate the economy,

当我们开始经济自动化，

and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,

1960 年正是计算机开始进入商用，

as we started to progressively inject technology

我们开始逐步将技术

and automation and digital stuff into the economy,

自动化和数字化注入经济

the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.

Bill和Ted的命运，偏离了很多。

Over this time frame, Ted has continued

在这时间轴上，Ted继续

to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.

保持一份全职工作，Bill却没有。

In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,

在许多情况下，Bill已完全无法维持生计，

and Ted very rarely has.

而Ted却几乎不会出现这种情况。

Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.

随着时间的推移，Ted的婚姻一直很快乐。

Bill's hasn't.

Bill却并非如此。

And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,

Ted的孩子们在双亲家庭中长大，

while Bill's absolutely have not over time.

然而Bill的孩子却没有这么幸运。

Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?

Bill会在其他方面与社会脱节吗？

He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,

越来越少的Bill参与总统选举的投票

and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.

越来越多的Bill开始光顾监狱。

So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,

我没法给大家展示一个乐观的社会趋势

and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.

而他们(Bills)也没有任何改变自己的迹象。

They're also true no matter which ethnic group

这是一个普遍的事实，无论是在哪一个民族

or demographic group we look at,

哪一个社会群体，

and they're actually getting so severe

都已经变得如此严重

that they're in danger of overwhelming

这才是我所说的压倒性的社会挑战

even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.

即便我们在公民权利运动中已经有所进展。

And what my friends in Silicon Valley

而我在硅谷的朋友

and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.

在剑桥的朋友，他们就是Ted。

They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,

他们过着忙碌、 富有成效的生活，

and they've got all the benefits to show from that,

并从中受益，

while Bill is leading a very different life.

然而Bill却过着完全不同的生活。

They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was

他们实际上都验证了伏尔泰的箴言

when he talked about the benefits of work,

伏尔泰论述工作的益处，

and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.

归功于，它将人类从三大罪恶中拯救。

["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]

["工作把人从三大罪恶——无聊，堕落，贫乏——中拯救出来"— — 伏尔泰]

So with these challenges, what do we do about them?

那么，面对这些挑战，我们需要如何去做？

The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,

经济的剧本是出奇地明确，

surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.

直截了当，尤其是在短期内。

The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,

机器人还不至于在一两年内揽下我们所有的工作，

so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:

所以经典的经济学剧本也可以发挥效用：

Encourage entrepreneurship,

鼓励创业精神，

double down on infrastructure,

翻倍的基础设施建设，

and make sure we're turning out people

并确保我们正在提升我们自身，

from our educational system with the appropriate skills.

通过教育制度培养相应的技能。

But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy

但在长期看来，如果我们正在进入一个

that's heavy on technology and light on labor,

重技术轻体力的经济体，

and we are, then we have to consider

那么我们就必须要考虑

some more radical interventions,

一些更激进的干预措施，

for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.

例如，最低收入保障。

Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,

现在，这些可能会造成在坐各位的反感，

because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing

因为这种想法曾与极端左翼连在一起

and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.

他们采用非常激进的手段，来重新分配财富。

I did a little bit of research on this notion,

我对此做了一些研究，

and it might calm some folk down to know that

它可能会让一些民间的反感趋于冷静

the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income

最低收入保障的概念

has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists

曾经被社会主义者们所拥护

Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.

弗里德里克·哈耶克、 理查德 · 尼克松和米尔顿 · 弗里德曼。

And if you find yourself worried

如果你发现自己正在担心

that something like a guaranteed income

诸如最低保障收入

is going to stifle our drive to succeed

正在扼杀我们成功的动力

and make us kind of complacent,

让我们洋洋自得

you might be interested to know that social mobility,

你可能会有兴趣知道，社会的流动性，

one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,

这在美国，是让我们引以为傲的方面

is now lower than it is in the northern European countries

现在却比不上北欧的国家

that have these very generous social safety nets.

它们有着更为慷慨的社保网络。

So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.

所以经济方面实际上相当简单。

The societal one is a lot more challenging.

社会方面却更具挑战。

I don't know what the playbook is

我不知道设计怎样的社会剧本才能

for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.

让Bill重新参与和介入社会生活

I do know that education is a huge part of it.

我只知道教育是不可或缺的一部分。

I witnessed this firsthand.

对此我深有体会。

I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education,

我在蒙特梭利接受了几年的低龄教育，

and what that education taught me

这种教育让我认为

is that the world is an interesting place

这个世界非常有趣

and my job is to go explore it.

而我的工作就是要去探索它。

The school stopped in third grade,

学校在三年级时，就停办了，

so then I entered the public school system,

然后我进入公立学校系统，

and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag.

我感觉就像被派到劳改营。

With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job

事后看来，现在我知道这种教育

was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer,

是让我成为一个职员或技工作准备，

but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of

但与此同时我也觉得这种教育

bore me into some submission with what was going on around me.

让我卷入到了无尽的厌烦之中。

We have to do better than this.

我们必须做得比这更好。

We cannot keep turning out Bills.

我们不能把下一代继续变成Bill。

So we see some green shoots that things are getting better.

我们已经看到有些好转的苗头。

We see technology deeply impacting education

我们看到技术已经深深地影响了教育

and engaging people, from our youngest learners

吸引各个层次的求知者，从新生一代

up to our oldest ones.

到我们这些老骨头。

We see very prominent business voices telling us

我们听到非常显著的来自商界的声音

we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while.

告诉我们要反思那些我们一度坚持的事物。

And we see very serious and sustained

我们看到非常严肃和持久的

and data-driven efforts to understand

数据驱动的努力

how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.

以了解如何去干预我们那些最不安的群体。

So the green shoots are out there.

所以希望就在那里。

I don't want to pretend for a minute

我连一分钟的假装都做不到

that what we have is going to be enough.

我们现在所拥有的真的是不够。

We're facing very tough challenges.

我们现在面临着非常严峻的挑战。

To give just one example, there are about five million Americans

仅举一个例子，有大约 500 万美国人

who have been unemployed for at least six months.

已经失业至少六个月了。

We're not going to fix things for them

我们没法通过将他们送回

by sending them back to Montessori.

蒙特梭利的幼儿园来解决它

And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world

我最担心的，是我们要创建的世界

where we're going to have glittering technologies

虽有闪闪发光的技术

embedded in kind of a shabby society

却还是一套破旧的社会体制

and supported by an economy that generates inequality

由不公而非机会

instead of opportunity.

所维持的经济

But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do.

但我并不认为我们会维持现在的所作所为。

I think we're going to do something a lot better

我认为我们会做得更好

for one very straightforward reason:

一个非常简单的原因：

The facts are getting out there.

事实已经呈现在眼前。

The realities of this new machine age

新机器时代已经到来

and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known.

经济的变革也更加广为人知。

If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things

如果我们想要加快这一进程，我们可以做的事情

like have our best economists and policymakers

比如让我们最好的经济学家和政策制定者

play "Jeopardy!" against Watson.

对人工智能程序发出"危险!"警告。

We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip.

我们可以通过自发的公路游行向国会传达。

And if we do enough of these kinds of things,

如果我们做足够多的这类事情，

the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different.

这种意识就会渗入社会，情况就会发生变化。

And then we're off to the races,

然后我们就出发去行动，

because I don't believe for a second

哪怕只有一秒，我也不会相信

that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges

我们会忘记如何解决严峻的挑战

or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.

或者我们已经变得太冷漠、麻木甚至不敢尝试。

I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths

我通过引用文豪的名言开始我的演讲

who were separated by an ocean and a century.

他们来自一个世纪前海洋的另一端。

Let me end it with words from politicians

现在让我用政治家的言论来结束演讲

who were similarly distant.

他们同样地遥远。

Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949,

温斯顿 · 丘吉尔在1949年来到麻省理工学院

and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses

他说，“如果我们要带领广大人民群众

of the people in every land to the table of abundance,

走向繁荣富裕，

it can only be by the tireless improvement

只能通过不懈的改进

of all of our means of technical production."

改进一切技术生产手段。”

Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient.

亚伯拉罕 · 林肯认识到另一个方面。

He said, "I am a firm believer in the people.

他说，"我是一位对人民有坚定信心的人。

If given the truth, they can be depended upon

如果给他们真相，

to meet any national crisis.

他们可以面对任何国家的危机。

The great point is to give them the plain facts."

最重要的是，给他们真正的事实。”

So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with

所以乐观的说，我想要留给你们的是

is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear,

新机器时代的到来已经是显而易见的事实，

and I have every confidence that we're going to use them

我有十足的信心，我们可以驾驭机器

to chart a good course into the challenging,

来通过充满挑战的社会课程，

abundant economy that we're creating.

迎接我们正在创造的经济繁荣。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）