Why societies collapse | Jared Diamond

1,435,425 views ・ 2008-10-28

TED


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Translator: Andoni Sagarna Reviewer: olatz mercader
00:18
I think all of us have been interested, at one time or another,
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Uste dut guri guztioi interesatu izan zaizkigula noiz edo noiz
00:22
in the romantic mysteries of all those societies that collapsed,
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gainbehera egin zuten gizarte horien guztien misterio erromantikoak,
00:27
such as the classic Maya in the Yucatan, the Easter Islanders,
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hala nola maia klasikoenak eta Yucatangoa, Pazko uharteko biztanleenak,
00:32
the Anasazi, Fertile Crescent society, Angor Wat, Great Zimbabwe
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Anasazienak, Ekialde Hurbil emankorreko gizartearenak, Angkor Wat-ena, Zimbabwe Handiarena
00:36
and so on. And within the last decade or two,
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eta abar. Eta azken pare bat hamarkadatan,
00:40
archaeologists have shown us that there were environmental problems
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arkeologoek erakutsi digute ingurumen-arazoak izan zirela
00:44
underlying many of these past collapses.
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iraganeko gainbehera horietako askoren azpian.
00:47
But there were also plenty of places in the world
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Baina leku asko zeuden munduan
00:48
where societies have been developing for thousands of years
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non gizarteak garatu ziren milaka urtean,
00:52
without any sign of a major collapse,
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inolako gainbehera garrantzitsuren zantzurik gabe,
00:54
such as Japan, Java, Tonga and Tikopea. So evidently, societies
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hala nola Japonia, Java, Tonga eta Tikopia. Beraz, nabarmenki, zenbait
01:00
in some areas are more fragile than in other areas.
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lekutako gizarteak kalteberagoak dira beste leku batzuetakoak baino.
01:03
How can we understand what makes some societies more fragile
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Nola jakin dezakegu zerk eragiten duen gizarte batzuk beste batzuk
01:06
than other societies? The problem is obviously relevant
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baino kalteberagoak izatea? Arazoa, jakina, esanahi handikoa da
01:12
to our situation today, because today as well, there are
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gure gaurko egoerari begira, gaur ere badirelako
01:15
some societies that have already collapsed, such as Somalia
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gizarte batzuk dagoeneko gainbehera egin dutenak, hala nola Somalia
01:19
and Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia. There are also
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eta Rwanda eta Jugoslavia ohia. Badira, halaber,
01:22
societies today that may be close to collapse, such as Nepal, Indonesia and Columbia.
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gaur egun gizarteak gainbeheratik hurbil egon daitezkeenak, esate baterako Nepal, Indonesia eta Columbia.
01:27
What about ourselves?
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Eta zer esan geure buruaz?
01:30
What is there that we can learn from the past that would help us avoid
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Zer ikas dezakegu iraganetik lagungarri gerta dakigukeena,
01:36
declining or collapsing in the way that so many past societies have?
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iraganeko gizarte askok izan duten gainbehera saihesteko?
01:41
Obviously the answer to this question is not going
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Bistan denez, galdera horren erantzuna ez da
01:43
to be a single factor. If anyone tells you that there is a single-factor
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faktore bakarraren menpeko izango. Norbaitek esaten badizu faktore bakarrean
01:47
explanation for societal collapses, you know right away
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oinarrituriko azalpen bat dutela gizarteen gainbeherek, badakizu garbi
01:50
that they're an idiot. This is a complex subject.
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hura ergela dela. Gai konplexua da hori.
01:54
But how can we make sense out of the complexities of this subject?
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Baina, nola jabetu gaitezke zentzuz gai horren konplexutasunez?
01:58
In analyzing societal collapses, I've arrived at a
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Gizarteen gainbeherak aztertuz. Bost puntuko
02:01
five-point framework -- a checklist of things that I go through
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eredu batera iritsi naiz. Eta azaltzera noa bost puntuok
02:05
to try and understand collapses. And I'll illustrate that five-point
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eta saiatzera gainbeherak ulertzen. Eta bost puntuko
02:10
framework by the extinction of the Greenland Norse society.
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eredu hori Groenlandiako norvegiar gizartearen suntsipenaren bitartez azalduko dut.
02:15
This is a European society with literate records,
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Hura europar gizarte bat da, literatur ondarea duena,
02:18
so we know a good deal about the people and their motivation.
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beraz nahikoa dakigu jende hartaz eta beren motibazioaz.
02:22
In AD 984 Vikings went out to Greenland, settled Greenland,
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984. urtean vikingoak Groenlandiara joan ziren, han kokatu ziren
02:26
and around 1450 they died out -- the society collapsed,
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eta 1450 inguruan desagertu egin ziren -- gizarteak gainbehera egin zuen,
02:30
and every one of them ended up dead.
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eta haiek guztiak hil egin ziren azkenean.
02:32
Why did they all end up dead? Well, in my five-point framework,
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Zergatik hil ziren guztiak? Hara, nire bost puntuko ereduan,
02:36
the first item on the framework is to look for human impacts
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lehenbizikoa gizakiek ingurumenean izandako eragina da:
02:40
on the environment: people inadvertently destroying the resource
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jendeak oharkabean suntsitu egiten ditu
02:43
base on which they depend. And in the case of the Viking Norse,
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irauteko behar dituen oinarrizko baliabideak. Eta, vikingo norvegiarren kasuan,
02:48
the Vikings inadvertently caused soil erosion and deforestation,
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oharkabean lurraren higadura eta oihan-soiltzea eragin zituzten,
02:53
which was a particular problem for them because
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eta hori arazo berezia zen haientzat,
02:56
they required forests to make charcoal, to make iron.
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oihanak behar zituztelako egur-ikatza egiteko, burdina lortzeko.
02:59
So they ended up an Iron Age European society, virtually
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Beraz, azkenean Burdin Aroko europar gizarte bat
03:03
unable to make their own iron. A second item on my checklist is
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ez zen gai bere burdina lortzeko. Nire zerrendako bigarren elementua
03:08
climate change. Climate can get warmer or colder or dryer or wetter.
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klimaren aldaketa da. Klima bihur daiteke beroago edo hotzago edo idorrago edo bustiago.
03:14
In the case of the Vikings -- in Greenland, the climate got colder
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Groenlandiako vikingoen kasuan, klima hotzago bihurtu zen
03:18
in the late 1300s, and especially in the 1400s. But a cold climate
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1300. urteen azkenaldean, eta bereziki 1400. urteetan. Baina klima hotz bat
03:22
isn't necessarily fatal, because the Inuit -- the Eskimos inhabiting
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ez da nahitanahiez hilgarria, zeren inuitak --
03:27
Greenland at the same time -- did better, rather than worse,
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Groenlandian garai berean bizi ziren eskimalak -- okerrago ez, baizik eta hobeto ibili ziren
03:29
with cold climates. So why didn't the Greenland Norse as well?
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klima hotzetan. Beraz, zergatik ez zitzaien gauza bera gertatu Groenlandiako norvegiarrei?
03:33
The third thing on my checklist is relations with neighboring
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Nire zerrendako hirugarren aztergaia inguruko
03:37
friendly societies that may prop up a society. And if that
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gizarte bati aitzinatzen lagun diezaieketen gizarte adiskideekiko harremanak dira.
03:41
friendly support is pulled away, that may make a society
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Eta adiskidantzazko laguntza hori desagertzen bada, horrek eragin
03:44
more likely to collapse. In the case of the Greenland Norse,
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dezake gizarteak errazago gainbehera egitea. Groenlandiako norvegiarren kasuan,
03:48
they had trade with the mother country -- Norway --
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harreman komertzialak zituzten jatorrizko herrialdearekin, Norvegiarekin,
03:50
and that trade dwindled: partly because Norway got weaker,
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eta merkataritza hori gutxitu egin zen, partez Norvegia ahuldu zelako,
03:54
partly because of sea ice between Greenland and Norway.
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partez Groenlandia eta Norvegia arteko itsasoa jelatu zelako.
03:59
The fourth item on my checklist is relations with hostile societies.
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Nire zerrendako laugarren elementua gizarte etsaiekiko harremanak dira.
04:05
In the case of Norse Greenland, the hostiles were the Inuit --
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Groenlandiako norvegiarren kasuan, etsaiak inuitak ziren.
04:08
the Eskimos sharing Greenland -- with whom the Norse
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Norvegiarrekin Groenlandia partekatzen zuten eskimalekiko
04:12
got off to bad relationships. And we know that the Inuit
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harremanak gaiztotu egin ziren. Eta badakigu inuitek
04:16
killed the Norse and, probably of greater importance,
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norvegiarrak hil zituztela, eta, seguru asko garrantzi handikoa izan zena,
04:19
may have blocked access to the outer fjords, on which
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norvegiarrek urte-sasoi kritiko batean itsasoratzeko
04:23
the Norse depended for seals at a critical time of the year.
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ezinbestekoak zituzten fiordoak blokeatu zituztela.
04:27
And then finally, the fifth item on my checklist is the political,
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Eta azkenik, nire zerrendako azken elementua gizarteak
04:31
economic, social and cultural factors in the society that make it
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ingurumeneko arazoak atzematea eta konpontzea bideragarriago
04:35
more or less likely that the society will perceive and solve its
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edo zailago egiten duten faktore ekonomiko, sozial eta politikoek
04:39
environmental problems. In the case of the Greenland Norse,
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osatzen dute. Groenlandiako norvegiarren kasuan,
04:44
cultural factors that made it difficult for them
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beren arazoak konpontzea zaildu zuten faktore kulturalak
04:46
to solve their problems were: their commitments to a
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kristau gizartea izateak zekarzkien betebeharrak izan ziren, katedraletan asko inbertituz,
04:49
Christian society investing heavily in cathedrals; their being
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lehiakortasunean nagusiki oinarriturik mailakaturiko gizartea izatea eta inuitak
04:53
a competitive-ranked chiefly society; and their scorn for the Inuit,
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mespretxatzea eta haiengandik ez ikasi nahi izatea. Beraz, bost ataleko
04:59
from whom they refused to learn. So that's how the five-part
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ereduak balio du
05:02
framework is relevant to the collapse and eventual extinction of the Greenland Norse.
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Groenlandiako norvegiarren gainbehera eta suntsipena azaltzeko.
05:07
What about a society today?
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Zer esan egungo gizarte batez?
05:10
For the past five years, I've been taking my wife and kids to
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Azken bost urteotan nire emaztearekin eta familiarekin
05:14
Southwestern Montana, where I worked as a teenager
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Montanaren hegomendebaldean bizi izan naiz, mutil gaztea nintzela
05:17
on the hay harvest. And Montana, at first sight, seems
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belar biltzen lan egin nuen lekuan. Eta Montanak begiratu batean ematen du
05:21
like the most pristine environment in the United States.
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Amerikako Estatu Batuetako ingurumenik naturalena duela.
05:24
But scratch the surface, and Montana suffers from serious problems.
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Baina azala harrotu, eta Montanak arazo larriak dituela ikusten da.
05:29
Going through the same checklist: human environmental impacts?
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Goazen zerrenda berbera errepasatzera: gizakiok ingurumenean eragiten ditugun inpaktuak.
05:33
Yes, acute in Montana. Toxic problems from mine waste
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Bai, Montanan larriak dira. Meatzeetako hondakinek eragindako toxizitate-arazoek
05:38
have caused damage of billions of dollars.
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milaka milioi dolarreko kalteak ekarri dituzte.
05:41
Problems from weeds, weed control, cost Montana nearly
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Belar txarren kontrola Montanari ia
05:44
200 million dollars a year. Montana has lost agricultural areas
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200 milioi dolar kostatzen zaio urtean. Montanan gatzek
05:48
from salinization, problems of forest management,
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hondatu dituzten nekazaritza-arloak, oihanen kudeaketako arazoak,
05:52
problems of forest fires. Second item on my checklist:
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oihanetako suteen arazoak. Nire zerrendako bigarren elementua:
05:56
climate change. Yes -- the climate in Montana is getting warmer
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klima-aldaketa. Bai -- Montanan klima beroago eta
05:59
and drier, but Montana agriculture depends especially on irrigation
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idorrago bihurtzen ari da, baina metaturiko
06:03
from the snow pack, and as the snow is melting -- for example,
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elurretatik datorren urez ureztatzea beharrezkoa du Montanako laborantzak, eta elurra urtzea, adibidez,
06:07
as the glaciers in Glacier National Park are disappearing --
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Glaziarren Parke Nazionaleko glaziarrak desagertu ahala,
06:10
that's bad news for Montana irrigation agriculture.
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albiste txarra da Montanako ureztatze-laborantzarentzat.
06:14
Third thing on my checklist: relations with friendlies
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Nire zerrendako hirugarren elementua: gizartea manten dezaketen
06:16
that can sustain the society. In Montana today, more than half of
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adiskideekiko harremanak dira. Montanan gaur egun, diru-sarreren erdia baino
06:20
the income of Montana is not earned within Montana,
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gehiago ez dator Montanatik bertatik,
06:24
but is derived from out of state: transfer payments from
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baizik eta estatuaz kanpotik dator: gizarte-segurantzako transferentziek
06:27
social security, investments and so on --
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inbertsioek, etab.
06:30
which makes Montana vulnerable to the rest of the United States.
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Montana AEBren enparauaren pentzudan egotea dakarte.
06:34
Fourth: relations with hostiles. Montanans have the same problems
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Laugarrena: etsaiekiko harremanak. Montanatarrek gainerako
06:38
as do all Americans, in being sensitive to problems
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estatubatuarrek dituzten arazo berberak dituzte,
06:42
created by hostiles overseas affecting our oil supplies,
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atzerriko etsaiek sortuak, petrolio-hornikuntzan eta
06:46
and terrorist attacks. And finally, last item on my checklist:
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eraso terroristetan eragina dutenak. Eta azkenik, nire zerrendako azken elementua:
06:52
question of how political, economic, social, cultural attitudes
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horretan jarrera politiko, ekonomiko, sozial eta kulturalek
06:55
play into this. Montanans have long-held values, which today
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nola jokatzen duten. Montanatarrek sakonki erroturiko balioak dituzte,
07:00
seem to be getting in the way of their solving their own problems.
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beren arazoak konpontzeko bidean oztopoak jartzen dizkietela diruditenak.
07:03
Long-held devotion to logging and to mines and to agriculture,
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Oihanetik egurra ateratzearekiko,meatzeekiko eta laborantzarekiko duten atxikimendua,
07:07
and to no government regulation; values that worked well
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eta gobernuaren erregulaziorik ez izatea. Balio horiek ondo funtzionatzen zuten
07:11
in the past, but they don't seem to be working well today.
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iraganean, baina ez dirudi gaur egun ondo funtzionatzen dutenik.
07:15
So, I'm looking at these issues of collapses
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Beraz, gainbeheren arazo horiek aztertzen ari naiz
07:17
for a lot of past societies and for many present societies.
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iraganeko gizarte askotan eta gaur egungo gizarte askotan.
07:22
Are there any general conclusions that arise?
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Atera al daitezke ondorio orokor batzuk?
07:24
In a way, just like Tolstoy's statement about every unhappy marriage
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Nola edo hala, Tolstoik zoritxarreko ezkontza guztiak desberdinak direla
07:29
being different, every collapsed or endangered society is different --
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zioenean esan zuena esan daiteke kasu honetan ere: gainbehera etorritako edo horretarako
07:32
they all have different details. But nevertheless, there are certain
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arriskuan dauden gizarte guztiek xehetasunak dituztela desberdinak, baina hala ere,
07:36
common threads that emerge from these comparisons
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badituztela tasun erkide batzuk, agertzen direnak konparatzen direnean
07:39
of past societies that did or did not collapse
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gainbehera egin zuten edo ez zuten iraganeko gizarteak
07:42
and threatened societies today. One interesting common thread
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gaur egun mehatxaturik dauden gizarteekin. Ezaugarri erkide interesgarri batek
07:49
has to do with, in many cases, the rapidity of collapse
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zerikusia du, kasu askotan, gainbeheraren lastertasunarekin,
07:53
after a society reaches its peak. There are many societies
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gizartea bere puntu gorenera heldu ostean. Gizarte asko dira
07:57
that don't wind down gradually, but they build up -- get richer
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ez direnak pixkanaka jausten, baizik eta eraikitzen direnak, aberasten
08:00
and more powerful -- and then within a short time, within a few decades
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eta ahaltsuago bihurtzen direnak, eta denbora laburraren buruan, gailurrera heldu ondoko
08:04
after their peak, they collapse. For example,
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hamarkada batzuetan, gainbehera egiten dutenak. Adibidez,
08:06
the classic lowland Maya of the Yucatan began to collapse in the
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Yucatango lur behereetako maia gizarte klasikoak 800. urteen hasieran
08:12
early 800s -- literally a few decades after the Maya were building
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egin zuen gainbehera, literalki maiek beren monumenturik
08:15
their biggest monuments, and Maya population was greatest.
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handienak eraikitzen ari zirenetik, eta maien biztanleria handiena zenetik hamarkada batzuetara.
08:20
Or again, the collapse of the Soviet Union took place
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Edo, orobat, Sobietar Batasunaren gainbehera
08:23
within a couple of decades, maybe within a decade, of the time
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Sobietar Batasuna ahaltsuena zenetik pare bat hamarkadatara, agian hamarkada baten buruan
08:27
when the Soviet Union was at its greatest power.
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gertatu zen.
08:30
An analogue would be the growth of bacteria in a petri dish.
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Analogia bat bakterio batek Petriren kaxa batean duen ugalpena izan liteke.
08:35
These rapid collapses are especially likely where there's
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Gainbehera laster horiek bereziki irispidean dauden baliabideak baliabideen
08:38
a mismatch between available resources and resource consumption,
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kontsumoarekin bat ez datozenean gerta litezke,
08:43
or a mismatch between economic outlays and economic potential.
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edo inbertsio ekonomikoak potentzial ekonomikoarekin bat ez datozenean.
08:47
In a petri dish, bacteria grow. Say they double every generation,
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Petriren kaxa batean bakterioa ugaldu egiten da. Demagun belaunaldi bakoitzean bikoiztu egiten dela,
08:52
and five generations before the end the petri dish is 15/16ths empty,
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eta ahitu baino bost belaunaldi lehenago Petriren kaxaren 15 hamaseiren hutsik daudela
08:57
and then the next generation's 3/4ths empty, and the next generation
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eta hurrengo belaunaldian 3 laurden hutsik daudela eta hurrengo belaunaldian
09:01
half empty. Within one generation after the petri dish still
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erdia hutsik dagoela. Petriren kaxaren erdia hutsik zegoenetik belaunaldi batera guztiz
09:05
being half empty, it is full. There's no more food and the bacteria have collapsed.
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beterik dagoela. Ez dago janari gehiago eta bakterioak gainbehera egiten du.
09:10
So, this is a frequent theme:
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Beraz, sarri gertatzen den gauza da
09:12
societies collapse very soon after reaching their peak in power.
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gizarteek gainbehera egitea, ahalmenaren puntu gorenera heldu eta berehala.
09:17
What it means to put it mathematically is that, if you're concerned
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Matematika erabiliz esateko, gaur gizarte batek kezkatzen bazaitu,
09:19
about a society today, you should be looking not at the value
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ez zenioke begiratu behar funtzio matematikoaren balioari,
09:24
of the mathematical function -- the wealth itself -- but you should
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ugaritasunari berari, baizik eta
09:27
be looking at the first derivative and the second derivatives
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funtzioaren lehen deribatuari eta bigarren deribatuari.
09:30
of the function. That's one general theme. A second general theme
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Hori gai orokorra da. Bigarren gai orokor bat
09:35
is that there are many, often subtle environmental factors that make
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da, badirela ingurumeneko faktore asko, sarri sentikorrak izaten direnak eta
09:40
some societies more fragile than others. Many of those factors
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gizarte batzuk beste batzuk baino kalteberagoak izatea eragiten dutenak
09:44
are not well understood. For example, why is it that in the Pacific,
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eta ez direnak ondo ezagutzen. Adibidez, zergatik gertatzen da hori
09:48
of those hundreds of Pacific islands, why did Easter Island end up as
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Ozeano Bareko ehunka uharteetan, zergatik gertatu zen Pazko uhartean
09:52
the most devastating case of complete deforestation?
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inoizko oihan-soiltzerik suntsikorrena?
09:56
It turns out that there were about nine different environmental
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Gertatzen da han bazirela bederatzi ingurumen-faktore diferente,
09:59
factors -- some, rather subtle ones -- that were working against
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batzuk nahiko sentikorrak, Pazko uharteko biztanleen aurka
10:03
the Easter Islanders, and they involve fallout of volcanic tephra,
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jokatzen ari zirenak, besteak beste sumendietako harriak eta laba jaustea,
10:08
latitude, rainfall. Perhaps the most subtle of them
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latitudea, euri-prezipitazioak. Agian faktorerik sentikorrena
10:11
is that it turns out that a major input of nutrients
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da Ozeano Bareko uharteetako ingurumenak babesten dituen
10:14
which protects island environments in the Pacific is from
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mantenugaien sarrera garrantzitsu bat
10:18
the fallout of continental dust from central Asia.
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Asiaren erdialdetik datorren hautsaren prezipitazioa dela.
10:21
Easter, of all Pacific islands, has the least input of dust
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Pazko uharteak jasotzen du, Ozeano Bareko uharteen artean, hautsik gutxiena
10:25
from Asia restoring the fertility of its soils. But that's
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lurren emankortasuna berreskuratzeko. Baina faktore hori
10:29
a factor that we didn't even appreciate until 1999.
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ez genuen ezagutu ere egiten 1999 arte.
10:34
So, some societies, for subtle environmental reasons,
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Beraz, gizarte batzuk, ingurumenari loturiko arrazoi batzuengatik,
10:36
are more fragile than others. And then finally,
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kalteberagoak dira beste batzuk baino. Eta azkenik,
10:39
another generalization. I'm now teaching a course
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beste generalizazio batzuk. Zeren ez bainaiz ari ikastaro bat ematen
10:42
at UCLA, to UCLA undergraduates, on these collapses
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UCLAn, UCLAko graduatu gabeko ikasleei, gizarteen gainbehera
10:45
of societies. What really bugs my UCLA undergraduate students is,
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horietaz. UCLAko graduatu gabeko ikasleak benetan gogaitzen dituena da,
10:49
how on earth did these societies not see what they were doing?
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nolatan ez zuten gizarte horiek ikusi zer ari ziren egiten?
10:52
How could the Easter Islanders have deforested their environment?
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Nolatan soildu zituzten beren oihanak Pazko uharteko biztanleek?
10:55
What did they say when they were cutting down the last palm tree?
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Zer esan zuten azken palmondoa botatzen ari zirenean?
10:59
Didn't they see what they were doing? How could societies
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Ez al zuten ikusten zer ari ziren egiten? Nolatan ez ziren konturatu
11:02
not perceive their impacts on the environments and stop in time?
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zer inpaktu ari ziren eragiten beren ingurumenetan eta ez ziren garaiz gelditu?
11:07
And I would expect that, if our human civilization carries on,
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Eta espero al nezake gure giza zibilizazioak jarraitzen badu,
11:14
then maybe in the next century people will be asking,
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agian hurrengo mendean, jendeak galdetuko duela
11:17
why on earth did these people today in the year 2003 not see
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zergatik gaurko jendeak 2003an ez zituen ikusi
11:21
the obvious things that they were doing and take corrective action?
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gertatzen ari ziren gauza nabarmenak eta ez zituen erremedioak jarri?
11:25
It seems incredible in the past. In the future, it'll seem
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Iraganekoak sinetsi ezinezkoa dirudi. Etorkizunean
11:28
incredible what we are doing today. And so I've been
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sinetsi ezinezkoa irudituko zaie egun egiten ari garena. Eta horrela
11:31
trying to develop a hierarchical set of considerations
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saiatzen ari izan naiz kontsiderazio multzo hierarkiko bat garatzen,
11:36
about why societies fail to solve their problems --
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gizarteek beren arazoak konpontzeko garaian huts egiteko dauden arrazoiez.
11:40
why they fail to perceive the problems or, if they perceive them,
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Zergatik huts egiten dute arazoez jabetzeko garaian, edo haietaz jabetzen badira,
11:42
why they fail to tackle them. Or, if they tackle them,
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zergatik huts egiten dute haiei erantzuterakoan? Edo, haiei erantzuterakoan huts egiten badute,
11:45
why do they fail to succeed in solving them?
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zergatik huts egiten dute arazoa gainditzerakoan?
11:48
I'll just mention two generalizations in this area.
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Bi generalizazio bakarrik aipatuko ditut arlo horretan.
11:52
One blueprint for trouble, making collapse likely,
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Oker jokatzeko oinarrizko arrazoi bat, gainbehera eragin dezakeena,
11:55
is where there is a conflict of interest between the short-term
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erabakiak hartzen dituzten eliteen epe laburreko interesen
11:58
interest of the decision-making elites and the long-term
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eta oro har gizartearen epe luzeko interesen arteko gatazka da,
12:02
interest of the society as a whole, especially if the elites
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batez ere eliteak gai baldin badira
12:06
are able to insulate themselves from the consequences
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beren buruak beren jokabideen ondorioetatik libratzeko.
12:08
of their actions. Where what's good in the short run for the elite
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Epe laburrean elitearentzat ona dena
12:12
is bad for the society as a whole, there's a real risk of the elite
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txarra baldin bada gizartearentzat oro har, benetako arriskua dago
12:16
doing things that would bring the society down in the long run.
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eliteak gizartea galbidera eramango duten gauzak egiteko.
12:19
For example, among the Greenland Norse --
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Adibidez, Groenlandiako norvegiarren artean --
12:21
a competitive rank society -- what the chiefs really wanted
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lehiakortasunaren araberako gizartea izaki -- agintariek benetan nahi zutena
12:24
is more followers and more sheep and more resources
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jarraitzaile gehiago eta ardi gehiago eta baliabide gehiago izatea zen,
12:27
to outcompete the neighboring chiefs. And that led the chiefs
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inguruko agintarien gainetik jartzeko. Eta horrek eraman zituen agintariak
12:30
to do what's called flogging the land: overstocking the land,
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lurra zigortzera: lurra neurriz kanpo ustiatzera,
12:34
forcing tenant farmers into dependency. And that made
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nekazariak menpekotasunera kondenatuz. Eta horrek
12:38
the chiefs powerful in the short run,
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ahaltsu bihurtu zituen agintariak epe laburrean,
12:42
but led to the society's collapse in the long run.
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baina gizartea gainbeherara eraman zuen epe luzean.
12:46
Those same issues of conflicts of interest are acute
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Interes-gatazken kontu horietxek larriak dira
12:49
in the United States today. Especially because
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Amerikako Estatu Batuetan gaur egun. Bereziki
12:52
the decision makers in the United States are frequently
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AEBko erabakitzaileak sarri
12:56
able to insulate themselves from consequences
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gai izaten direlako ondorioetatik libratzeko
12:59
by living in gated compounds, by drinking bottled water
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itxituraz inguraturiko urbanizazioetan biziz, botilako ura edanez, etab.
13:02
and so on. And within the last couple of years,
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Eta azken pare bat urtean,
13:05
it's been obvious that the elite in the business world
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nabaria izan da negozioen munduko eliteak
13:09
correctly perceive that they can advance
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garbi ikusi duela bere epe laburreko interesak aurrera
13:11
their short-term interest by doing things that are
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atera ditzakeela berarentzat onak baina gizartearentzat
13:14
good for them but bad for society as a whole,
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oro har txarrak diren gauzak eginez,
13:16
such as draining a few billion dollars out of Enron
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hala nola milaka miloi dolar Enron-etik eta
13:19
and other businesses. They are quite correct
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beste negozio batzuetatik drainatuz. Aski garbi dago
13:23
that these things are good for them in the short term,
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gauza horiek onak direla haientzat epe laburrean,
13:26
although bad for society in the long term.
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nahiz eta txarrak izan gizartearentzat epe luzean.
13:29
So, that's one general conclusion about why societies
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Beraz horixe da ondorio orokor bat gizarteek
13:32
make bad decisions: conflicts of interest.
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erabaki okerrak hartzeko dauden arrazoiez: interesen arteko gatazkak.
13:36
And the other generalization that I want to mention
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Eta aipatu nahi dudan beste generalizazio bat da
13:40
is that it's particularly hard for a society to make
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bereziki gogorra dela gizarte batentzat
13:42
quote-unquote good decisions when there is a conflict involving
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erabaki onak hartzea, zenbait egoeratan egokiak izan arren,
13:48
strongly held values that are good in many circumstances
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beste egoera batzuetan kaskarrak diren ongi erroturiko balioekin
13:53
but are poor in other circumstances. For example,
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gatazka dagoenean. Adibidez,
13:56
the Greenland Norse, in this difficult environment,
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Groenlandiako norvegiarren kasuan,
13:59
were held together for four-and-a-half centuries
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lau mende eta erdian erlijioarekiko betebeharrek
14:02
by their shared commitment to religion,
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eta kohesio sozial sendoak elkarturik mantendu zituzten.
14:05
and by their strong social cohesion. But those two things --
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Baina gauza biok --
14:09
commitment to religion and strong social cohesion --
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erlijioarekiko betebeharrak eta kohesio sozial sendoak --
14:12
also made it difficult for them to change at the end
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aldi berean zaildu egin zien aldatzea eta
14:15
and to learn from the Inuit. Or today -- Australia.
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inuitengandik ikastea. Edo gaur egun, Australia.
14:18
One of the things that enabled Australia to survive
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Australiari, Europako zibilizaziotik urrun kokatu zenean,
14:21
in this remote outpost of European civilization
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250 urtean irautea ahalbidetu zioten gauzetako bat
14:24
for 250 years has been their British identity.
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identitate britainiarra izan zen.
14:28
But today, their commitment to a British identity
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Baina gaur egun, haiek identitate britaniarrarekiko duten atxikimenduak
14:32
is serving Australians poorly in their need to adapt
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ez die askorik balio Asian duten egoerara moldatzeko.
14:35
to their situation in Asia. So it's particularly difficult
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Horrela, bereziki zaila da
14:39
to change course when the things that get you in trouble
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aldatzea arazoak sortzen dizkizuten gauzak
14:43
are the things that are also the source of your strength.
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zure sendotasunaren oinarria ere badirenean.
14:47
What's going to be the outcome today?
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Zein izango da ondorioa gaur egun?
14:49
Well, all of us know the dozen sorts of ticking time bombs
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Hara, guk guztiok ezagutzen ditugu dozenaka erloju-bonba
14:55
going on in the modern world, time bombs that have fuses
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moduko batzuk mundu modernoan, hamarkada gutxi batzuetarako
15:01
of a few decades to -- all of them, not more than 50 years,
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metxak dituztenak --denek ere, ez 50 urte baino gehiagorako,
15:05
and any one of which can do us in; the time bombs of water,
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eta horietako edozein leher dakiguke. Uraren, lurraren
15:10
of soil, of climate change, invasive species,
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klima-aldaketaren, espezie inbaditzaileen
15:14
the photosynthetic ceiling, population problems, toxics, etc., etc. --
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fotosintesi-sabaiaren, biztanleria-arazoen, produktu toxikoen, eta abarren erloju-bonbak --
15:19
listing about 12 of them. And while these time bombs --
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horietako 12 zerrenda daitezke. Eta erloju-bonba horietako batzuek --
15:23
none of them has a fuse beyond 50 years, and most of them
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horietako batek bakarrik ere ez du 50 urte baino gehiagorako metxarik, eta
15:25
have fuses of a few decades -- some of them, in some places,
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badira metxak hamarkada gutxi batzuetarako -- horietako batzuek zenbait lekutan
15:28
have much shorter fuses. At the rate at which we're going now,
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askoz metxa laburragoak dituzte. Orain daramagun martxan,
15:32
the Philippines will lose all its accessible loggable forest
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Filipinek beren oihan ustiagarri guztiak galduko dituzte
15:36
within five years. And the Solomon Islands are only
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bost urteren buruan. Eta Solomon uharteetan urtebete bakarrik
15:39
one year away from losing their loggable forest,
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falta zaie beren oihan ustiagarriak galtzeko,
15:42
which is their major export. And that's going to be spectacular
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eta hori da beren esportazio nagusia. Eta hori izugarria izango da
15:44
for the economy of the Solomons. People often ask me,
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Solomon uharteetako ekonomiarentzat. Jendeak askotan galdetzen dit,
15:48
Jared, what's the most important thing that we need to do
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Jared, zein da egin behar dugun gauzarik inportanteena
15:51
about the world's environmental problems?
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munduko ingurumen-arazoei dagokienez?
15:53
And my answer is, the most important thing we need to do
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Eta nire erantzuna hauxe da: egin behar dugun gauzarik inportanteena
15:55
is to forget about there being any single thing that is
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egin behar dugun gauzarik inportanteena bat bakarra dela
15:58
the most important thing we need to do.
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ahaztea da.
16:00
Instead, there are a dozen things, any one of which could do us in.
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Aitzitik, dozenaka gauza dira, salba gaitzaketenak.
16:03
And we've got to get them all right, because if we solve 11,
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Eta haiek guztiak ondo egitea lortu behar dugu, zeren 11 soluzionatzen baditugu,
16:06
we fail to solve the 12th -- we're in trouble. For example,
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eta hamabigarrena soluzionatzean huts egiten badugu, arazoak izango ditugu. Adibidez,
16:09
if we solve our problems of water and soil and population,
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urarekin eta lurrarekin ditugun arazoak konpontzen baditugu,
16:12
but don't solve our problems of toxics, then we are in trouble.
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baina ez baditugu konpontzen produktu toxikoekin ditugun arazoak, gaizki ibiliko gara.
16:18
The fact is that our present course is a non-sustainable course,
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Kontua da gure oraingo martxa ez dela jasangarria,
16:23
which means, by definition, that it cannot be maintained.
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eta horrek esan nahi du definizioz ezin dela mantendu.
16:27
And the outcome is going to get resolved within a few decades.
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Eta ondorioak hamarkada batzuk beharko ditu konpontzeko.
16:34
That means that those of us in this room who are less than
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Horrek esan nahi du gela honetan gaudenon artean 50 edo 60 urte baino
16:37
50 or 60 years old will see how these paradoxes are resolved,
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gutxiago ditugunok ikusiko dugula paradoxa horiek nola konpontzen diren,
16:41
and those of us who are over the age of 60 may not see
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eta 60 urtetik gora ditugunok ezin izango dugula
16:44
the resolution, but our children and grandchildren certainly will.
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soluzioa ikusi, baina gure seme-alabek eta bilobek seguru ikusiko dutela.
16:48
The resolution is going to achieve either of two forms:
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Soluzioak bi forma hauetakoren bat izango du:
16:51
either we will resolve these non-sustainable time-fuses
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edo konpontzen ditugu jasangarriak ez diren metxa horiek
16:56
in pleasant ways of our own choice by taking remedial action,
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geuk aukeratzen ditugun bide atseginak erabiliz edota
17:01
or else these conflicts are going to get settled
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bestela gatazka horiek gure esku ez dauden modu ez-atseginetan
17:04
in unpleasant ways not of our choice -- namely, by war,
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-- bereziki gerren, gaixotasunen edo goseteen bidez aldatuko dira.
17:08
disease or starvation. But what's for sure is that our
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Baina segurua da gure martxa ez-jasangarria
17:12
non-sustainable course will get resolved in one way or another
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era batera edo bestera soluzionatuko dela
17:14
in a few decades. In other words, since the theme of this session
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hamarkada batzuen buruan. Bestela esateko, saio hau
17:18
is choices, we have a choice. Does that mean that we should
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aukerez denez, badugu aukera. Horrek esan nahi al du
17:23
get pessimistic and overwhelmed? I draw the reverse conclusion.
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ezkorrak izan eta etsi egin behar dugula? Nik alderantzizko ondorioa ateratzen dut.
17:28
The big problems facing the world today are not at all
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Munduak gaur egun dituen arazo handiak ez daude inola ere
17:31
things beyond our control. Our biggest threat is not an asteroid
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gure kontrolaz haraindi. Dugun mehatxurik handiena ez da
17:35
about to crash into us, something we can do nothing about.
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gainera etorriko zaigun asteroide bat, ezer egiterik uzten ez digun ezer.
17:39
Instead, all the major threats facing us today are problems
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Ostera, gaur egun aurrean ditugun mehatxu nagusiak
17:42
entirely of our own making. And since we made the problems,
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erabat gure esku dauden arazoak dira. Eta arazoak sortzen ditugunez,
17:46
we can also solve the problems. That then means that it's
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konpondu ere egin ditzakegu. Horrek esan nahi du erabat
17:50
entirely in our power to deal with these problems.
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gure esku dagoela arazo horiek konpontzea.
17:54
In particular, what can all of us do? For those of you
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Zehazki, guk guztiok zer egin dezakegu? Aukera horietan
17:57
who are interested in these choices, there are lots of things
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interesaturik zaudetenontzat, gauza asko egin
18:00
you can do. There's a lot that we don't understand,
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ditzakezue. Ulertzen ez ditugun gauza asko daude
18:04
and that we need to understand. And there's a lot that
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ulertu behar ditugunak. Eta gauza asko daude dagoeneko
18:07
we already do understand, but aren't doing, and that
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ulertzen ditugunak, baina egiten ez ditugunak, eta
18:11
we need to be doing. Thank you.
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egin behar ditugunak. Eskerrik asko.
18:13
(Applause)
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(Txaloak)
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