Where good ideas come from | Steven Johnson

1,657,428 views ・ 2010-09-21

TED


Palun tehke topeltklõps allpool olevatel ingliskeelsetel subtiitritel, et mängida videot.

Translator: Reelika Saar Reviewer: Piret Hion
00:15
Fifty-two minutes ago, I took this picture about 10 blocks from here.
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Vaid mõned minutid tagasi tegin ma selle pildi
siit umbes 10 kvartali kaugusel.
00:20
This is the Grand Café here in Oxford.
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See on Grand Cafe siin Oxfordis.
00:23
I took this picture
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Ma tegin selle pildi, sest tuleb välja, et see on
00:24
because this turns out to be the first coffeehouse to open in England,
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esimene kohvik, mis Inglismaal
avati, aastal 1650.
00:29
in 1650.
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00:30
That's its great claim to fame.
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Kuulsusrikas kohvik!
00:32
And I wanted to show it to you,
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Ma tahtsin teile seda näidata
00:34
not because I want to give you the Starbucks tour
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mitte selleks, et teha teile mingi Starbucks-ringkäik
00:36
of historic England --
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ajaloolisest Inglismaast,
00:37
(Laughter)
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vaid sellepärast,
00:39
but rather because the English coffeehouse was crucial
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et kohvik oli Inglismaal ülioluline
00:42
to the development and spread of one of the great intellectual flowerings
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selleks, et areneks ja leviks
üks viimase 500 aasta suurimaid intellektuaalseid õitsenguid -
00:47
of the last 500 years,
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valgustusajastu.
00:49
what we now call the Enlightenment.
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00:51
And the coffeehouse played such a big role in the birth of the Enlightenment
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Kohvik mängis nii suurt rolli
valgustuse tekkimises
00:55
in part because of what people were drinking there.
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osaliselt selle pärast, mida inimesed seal jõid.
Enne seda, kui kohvi ja tee
00:58
Because, before the spread of coffee and tea through British culture,
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Briti kultuuris kodunesid,
01:03
what people drank -- both elite and mass folks drank --
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oli põhiliseks joogiks - nii eliidil kui ka tavainimestel -
01:06
day in and day out, from dawn until dusk,
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päevast päeva, koidust ehani -
01:08
was alcohol.
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alkohol.
01:10
Alcohol was the daytime beverage of choice.
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Terve päev otsa oli joogiks alkohol.
01:12
You would drink a little beer with breakfast
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Hommikusöögi juurde väike õlu ja lõunasöögiks vein,
01:14
and have a little wine at lunch,
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01:15
a little gin, particularly around 1650,
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natuke džinni - eriti 1650. aasta paiku -
01:18
and top it off with a little beer and wine at the end of the day.
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ja päeva lõpetuseks jälle natuke õlut ja veini.
See oli tervislik valik,
01:21
That was the healthy choice, because the water wasn't safe to drink.
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sest vesi ei kõlvanud juua.
01:24
And so, effectively, until the rise of the coffeehouse,
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Seega, kuni kohvikute populaarsuse tõusuni
01:27
you had an entire population that was effectively drunk all day.
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oli kogu rahvas praktiliselt
terve päev purjus.
01:30
(Laughter)
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01:32
And you can imagine what that would be like in your own life --
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Te ju kujutate oma elu ette, mismoodi see oleks -
ma tean, mõnede puhul teist on see tõsi ka -
01:35
and I know this is true of some of you -- if you were drinking all day --
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kui te jooksite päev läbi
01:38
(Laughter)
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01:39
and then you switched from a depressant to a stimulant in your life.
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ja siis vahetaksite rahusti oma elus erguti vastu,
teil tekiksid küll paremad ideed.
01:43
You would have better ideas.
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01:44
You would be sharper and more alert.
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Oleksite teravama taibuga ja erksamad.
01:46
So it's not an accident that a great flowering of innovation happened
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Niisiis pole see juhus, et suur innovatsiooni õitseng juhtus just siis,
kui Inglismaa tee ja kohvi poole pöördus.
01:50
as England switched to tea and coffee.
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01:52
But the other thing that makes the coffeehouse important
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Teine põhjus, miks kohvik osutus nii tähtsaks,
01:55
is the architecture of the space.
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oli selle ruumiline ülesehitus.
01:57
It was a space where people would get together,
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See oli koht, kus võisid kokku saada erineva
01:59
from different backgrounds, different fields of expertise,
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taustaga inimesed erinevatelt
tegevusaladelt ja omi mõtteid jagada.
02:02
and share.
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02:03
It was a space, as Matt Ridley talked about, where ideas could have sex.
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See oli koht, kus - nagu Matt Ridley rääkis - ideed võisid seksida.
See oli teatud mõttes nende abieluvoodi.
02:07
This was their conjugal bed, in a sense; ideas would get together there.
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Ideed said seal kokku.
02:10
And an astonishing number of innovations from this period
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Hämmastavalt suur arv innovatsioone sellest ajajärgust
02:13
have a coffeehouse somewhere in their story.
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ongi miskitpidi mõne kohvikuga seotud.
Ma olen viimase viie aasta jooksul veetnud palju aega
02:17
I've been spending a lot of time thinking about coffeehouses
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02:19
for the last five years
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kohvikute üle mõteldes,
02:21
because I've been kind of on this quest
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sest ma olen olnud otsingul,
leidmas vastust küsimusele,
02:24
to investigate this question of where good ideas come from.
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kust tulevad head ideed.
02:27
What are the environments that lead to unusual levels of innovation,
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Mis on need keskkonnad,
mis viivad erakordse innovatsioonitasemeni,
erakordse loovuseni?
02:33
unusual levels of creativity?
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02:35
What's the kind of environmental -- what is the space of creativity?
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Milline on see keskkonna...
milline on see loovuse ruum?
02:39
And what I've done is,
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Selle käigus olen ma
02:41
I've looked at both environments like the coffeehouse,
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uurinud selliseid keskkondi nagu kohvikud,
olen vaadanud meediakeskkondi nagu seda on Internet,
02:44
I've looked at media environments like the World Wide Web,
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mis on olnud erakordselt innovaatilised.
02:46
that have been extraordinarily innovative;
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Olen vaadanud esimeste linnade ajalugu ning
02:48
I've gone back to the history of the first cities;
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läinud isegi bioloogilistesse keskkondadesse
02:51
I've even gone to biological environments, like coral reefs and rain forests,
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nagu korallrahud ja vihmametsad,
milles on tavatult kõrge bioloogilise innovatsiooni tase,
02:55
that involve unusual levels of biological innovation.
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02:57
And what I've been looking for is shared patterns,
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otsides ühiseid mustreid,
03:00
signature behavior that shows up again and again
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iseloomulikke käitumismalle, mida võib
ikka ja jälle kõigis neis keskkondades näha.
03:04
in all of these environments.
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03:05
Are there recurring patterns that we can learn from,
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Kas on korduvaid mustreid, millest võime õppida,
03:08
that we can take and apply to our own lives
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mida saame kuidagi rakendada omaenda eludes,
03:10
or our own organizations or our own environments
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oma organisatsioonides
või keskkonnas, et muuta neid loomingulisemaks ja uuenduslikemaks?
03:13
to make them more creative and innovative?
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Ma arvan, et olen mõned leidnud.
03:15
And I think I've found a few.
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03:16
But what you have to do to make sense of this
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Kuid sellest aru saamiseks ja tõepoolest
03:19
and to really understand these principles is,
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nende põhimõtete mõistmiseks
03:21
you have to do away with
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tuleb unustada
03:23
the way in which our conventional metaphors and language steers us
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suur osa sellest, mil viisil meie harjumuspärased metafoorid ja keel
juhivad meid teatud
03:27
towards certain concepts of idea creation.
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arusaamadeni ideede loomisest.
03:30
We have this very rich vocabulary to describe moments of inspiration.
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Meil on väga rikkalik sõnavara
inspiratsioonihetkede kirjeldamiseks.
Meil on sisekaemuse välgatused,
03:35
We have the "flash" of insight,
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03:37
the "stroke" of insight,
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äkiline äratundmine,
03:39
we have "epiphanies,"
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ilmutused ja "heureka!"-hetked
03:40
we have eureka moments,
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03:42
we have the "light bulb" moments, right?
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ning ideesähvatused, eks ole?
03:44
All of these concepts, as rhetorically florid as they are,
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Kõik need arusaamad,
retooriliselt ilustatud nagu nad on,
03:49
share this basic assumption,
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põhinevad lihtsal oletusel,
03:51
which is that an idea is a single thing.
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et idee on selline eraldiseisev asi,
03:54
It's something that happens often in a wonderful, illuminating moment.
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miski, mis tihti juhtub ühel
imelisel valgustaval hetkel.
03:59
But, in fact, what I would argue and what you really need to begin with
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Kuid ma väidaksin hoopis - sellest peaks tegelikult alustama -
et idee kui selline
04:03
is this idea that an idea is a network on the most elemental level.
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on lihtne võrgustik.
04:07
I mean, this is what is happening inside your brain.
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Tähendab, see on see, mis juhtub teie ajus.
04:09
An idea -- a new idea -- is a new network of neurons
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Idee - uus idee - on uus võrgustik närvirakkudest,
04:12
firing in sync with each other inside your brain.
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mis saadavad ajus välja impulsse üksteisega sünkroonis.
04:14
It's a new configuration that has never formed before.
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See on uus konfiguratsioon, mida enne pole tekkinud.
04:18
And the question is: How do you get your brain into environments
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Küsimus: kuidas saada oma aju sellisesse keskkonda,
04:21
where these new networks are going to be more likely to form?
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kus need uued võrgustikud on tõenäolisemad tekkima?
04:24
And it turns out that, in fact, the network patterns of the outside world
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Tuleb välja, et tegelikult on välise maailma võrgustike mustrid
sarnased paljudele inimese aju
04:28
mimic a lot of the network patterns of the internal world of a human brain.
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sisemaailma võrgustike mustritele.
04:32
So the metaphor I'd like to use,
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Nii võin ma hea metafoori
võtta
04:35
I can take from a story of a great idea that's quite recent --
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ühe suure idee loost, mis on päris värske -
04:39
a lot more recent than the 1650s.
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palju hilisem kui 1650-ndad.
04:43
A wonderful guy named Timothy Prestero
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Üks vaimustav mees, Timothy Prestero,
04:45
has an organization called Design That Matters.
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kellel on organisatsioon nimega Design that Matters.
04:48
They decided to tackle this really pressing problem
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Nad otsustasid käsile võtta pakilise ülesande,
04:52
of the terrible problems we have with infant mortality rates
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rasked probleemid seoses imikusuremuskordajaga
04:55
in the developing world.
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arengumaades.
04:57
One of the things that's very frustrating about this
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Üks väga masendav tõsiasi selle juures on teadmine,
05:00
is that we know by getting modern neonatal incubators into any context,
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et vastsündinute inkubaatorite olemasolu
ükskõik kus,
05:05
if we can keep premature babies warm, basically -- it's very simple --
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enneaegsete imikute soojas hoidmiseks - see on ju väga lihtne -
05:08
we can halve infant mortality rates in those environments.
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vähendab imikute suremust poole võrra.
05:11
So the technology is there.
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See tehnoloogia on olemas.
05:13
These are standard in all the industrialized worlds.
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Need on tavavarustus kõigis arenenud tööstusriikides.
05:16
The problem is, if you buy a $40,000 incubator,
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Probleem tekib siis, kui osta 40 000-dollariline aparaat
05:19
and you send it off to a midsized village in Africa,
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ja saata see teele
keskmise suurusega Aafrika külla,
05:23
it will work great for a year or two years,
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töötab see seal hästi aasta või paar,
05:25
and then something will go wrong and it will break,
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kuid siis läheb see läheb rikki,
05:28
and it will remain broken forever,
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ja jääbki igaveseks katkiseks,
05:30
because you don't have a whole system of spare parts,
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sest puudub varuosade süsteem
05:33
and you don't have the on-the-ground expertise
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ja koha peal pole ühtki kompetentset inimest
05:35
to fix this $40,000 piece of equipment.
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selle kalli seadme parandamiseks.
05:37
So you end up having this problem where you spend all this money
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Nii meil ongi lõpuks probleem, et kulutame küll palju raha
nende riikide nüüdisaegse tehnikaga varustamiseks,
05:40
getting aid and all these advanced electronics to these countries,
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kuid lõpuks muutub see kasutuks.
05:43
and it ends up being useless.
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Niisiis otsustasid Prestero ja tema meeskond
05:45
So what Prestero and his team decided to do
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ringi vaadata ja uurida: milliseid ressursse leidub külluses
05:47
was to look around and see: What are the abundant resources
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nendes arengumaades?
05:50
in these developing world contexts?
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05:51
And what they noticed was,
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Nad märkasid, et neil pole just palju videosalvesteid
05:53
they don't have a lot of DVRs, they don't have a lot of microwaves,
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ega kuigi palju mikrolaineahjusid,
05:56
but they seem to do a pretty good job of keeping their cars on the road.
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aga autode töökorras hoidmisega saavad nad hästi hakkama.
05:59
There's a Toyota 4Runner on the street in all these places.
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Toyota 4Runner on
kõigis neis paigus tänavatel.
06:03
They seem to have the expertise to keep cars working.
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Näib, et nad oskavad hästi autosid käigus hoida.
06:06
So they started to think,
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Nii tulid nad ideele:
06:07
"Could we build a neonatal incubator
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"Kas me saaksime teha inkubaatori,
06:10
that's built entirely out of automobile parts?"
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mis koosneks täielikult autoosadest?"
06:13
And this is what they came up with.
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Tulemuseks oli see riistapuu siin.
06:15
It's called the NeoNurture device.
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Seadme nimi on NeoNurture.
06:17
From the outside, it looks like a normal little thing
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Väljastpoolt paistab see nagu üks tavaline asi,
06:19
you'd find in a modern Western hospital.
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mida võib näha moodsas lääne haiglas.
Sees on aga autoosad.
06:22
In the inside, it's all car parts.
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06:23
It's got a fan, it's got headlights for warmth,
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Sel on ventilaator, esituled soojuse jaoks
ja autouste alarm häire jaoks.
06:26
it's got door chimes for alarm,
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06:27
it runs off a car battery.
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See töötab autoaku pealt.
06:29
And so all you need is the spare parts from your Toyota
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Nii et vaja on ainult oma Toyota varuosasid,
oskust esituld parandada
06:32
and the ability to fix a headlight,
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ja seda saabki remontida.
06:34
and you can repair this thing.
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06:35
Now that's a great idea,
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See on muidugi hiilgav idee, aga tegelikult
06:36
but I'd like to say that, in fact,
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06:38
this is a great metaphor for the way ideas happen.
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on see väga hea metafoor ka selle jaoks, kuidas ideed tekivad.
06:40
We like to think our breakthrough ideas, you know,
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Meile meeldib mõelda, et meie läbimurde-ideed
on nagu see hirmkallis, uhiuus inkubaator,
06:43
are like that $40,000, brand-new incubator,
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tehnoloogia viimane sõna,
06:45
state-of-the-art technology.
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06:46
But more often than not, they're cobbled together
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aga tihtilugu on uued ideed kokku klopsitud hoopis
06:48
from whatever parts that happen to be around nearby.
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igasugu osadest, mis juhtuvad käepärast olema.
Me võtame ideid teistelt -
06:51
We take ideas from other people,
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nendelt, kellelt õpime; nendelt, kellega juhuslikult kohvikus kokku saame -
06:53
people we've learned from, people we run into in the coffee shop,
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ja seome need kokku uuteks vormideks, luues midagi täiesti uut.
06:56
and we stitch them together into new forms and we create something new.
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Nii toimuvad tegelikult uuendused.
06:59
That's really where innovation happens.
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07:01
And that means we have to change some of our models
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See tähendab, et peame muutma mõningaid oma arusaamu
07:03
of what innovation and deep thinking really looks like, right?
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sellest, kuidas uuendus ja ideede areng toimuvad.
07:06
I mean, this is one vision of it.
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See on üks nägemus sellest.
07:08
Another is Newton and the apple, when Newton was at Cambridge.
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Teine on Newton ja õun ajast, mil Newton Cambridge'is oli.
07:11
This is a statue from Oxford.
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See on kuju Oxfordis.
07:13
You know, you're sitting there, thinking a deep thought,
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Teate küll, puu all istumise ja sügavalt mõtlemise ajal
kukub puu otsast õun ja äkki ongi olemas gravitatsiooniteooria.
07:16
the apple falls from the tree, and you have the theory of gravity.
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Tegelikult näevad kohad, mis läbi ajaloo uuendusteni
07:19
In fact, the spaces that have historically led to innovation tend to look like this.
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on viinud, pigem sellised välja.
07:23
This is Hogarth's famous painting of a kind of political dinner at a tavern,
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See on Hogarthi kuulus maal poliitilisest õhtusöögist kõrtsis,
aga just sellised olid ka kohvikud tol ajal.
07:27
but this is what the coffee shops looked like back then.
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07:29
This is the kind of chaotic environment where ideas were likely to come together,
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See on selline kaootiline keskkond,
kuhu ideed tõenäoliselt kokku tulid,
07:33
where people were likely to have new, interesting, unpredictable collisions,
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kus tõenäoliselt põrkasid kokku
uus, huvitav ja ettearvamatu erinevate taustadega inimeste näol.
07:37
people from different backgrounds.
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07:38
So if we're trying to build organizations that are more innovative,
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Seega, kui me tahame uuendusaltimaid organisatsioone,
peame looma kohti, mis oleksid sarnased sellele siin.
07:42
we have to build spaces that, strangely enough, look a bit more like this.
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Sellised peaksid olema teie kontorid.
07:45
This is what your office should look like, it's part of my message here.
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See on osa minu sõnumist.
Üks probleem selle juures on see,
07:49
And one of the problems with this is that, when you research this field,
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kui asja uurida, on inimesed tegelikult
07:52
people are notoriously unreliable
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paganama ebausaldusväärsed,
07:54
when they actually self-report on where they have their own good ideas,
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kui nad kirjeldavad,
kus neil head ideed tekivad,
07:58
or their history of their best ideas.
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või kuidas parimad ideed kujunevad.
08:00
And a few years ago, a wonderful researcher named Kevin Dunbar
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Mõned aastad tagasi otsustas suurepärane teadur Kevin Dunbar
ringi käia ja sisuliselt
08:04
decided to go around and basically do the Big Brother approach
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rakendada tõsielusaate lähenemist,
08:07
to figuring out where good ideas come from.
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et teada saada, kust tulevad head ideed.
08:09
He went to a bunch of science labs around the world
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Ta käis mitmetes teaduslaborites üle maailma,
08:12
and videotaped everyone as they were doing every little bit of their job:
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filmides seal kõiki
sellel ajal, kui nad oma igapäevatööd tegid.
08:15
when they were sitting in front of the microscope,
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Nii seda, kui nad istusid mikroskoobi taga
08:18
when they were talking to colleagues at the watercooler ...
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kui ka seda, kui nad vestlesid kolleegiga kohvinurgas - kõike sellist.
Ta filmis kõiki neid vestlusi
08:21
And he recorded all these conversations
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ja üritas välja nuputada, kus sünnivad
08:23
and tried to figure out where the most important ideas happened.
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kõige tähtsamad ideed.
08:26
And when we think about the classic image of the scientist in the lab,
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Tüüpiliselt, kui mõtleme teadlastest laborites, on meil
08:29
we have this image -- you know, they're poring over the microscope,
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kujutluspilt sellest, teate küll, kuidas nad mikroskoobi all uurides
08:32
and they see something in the tissue sample,
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näevad midagi koeproovis.
08:34
and -- "Eureka!" -- they've got the idea.
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Ja "Oi, heureka!" ongi neil idee käes.
08:36
What happened, actually, when Dunbar looked at the tape,
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Kui Dunbar filmitu läbi vaatas, nägi ta, et tegelikult
08:40
is that, in fact, almost all of the important breakthrough ideas
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tekkisid peaaegu kõik tähtsad läbimurde-ideed
08:43
did not happen alone in the lab, in front of the microscope.
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kusagil mujal, mitte üksinda laboris mikroskoobi taga.
08:46
They happened at the conference table at the weekly lab meeting,
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Nad tekkisid nõupidamistelaua taga
iganädalastel koosolekutel,
08:50
when everybody got together and shared their latest data and findings,
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kui kõik said kokku ja jagasid omavahel uusimaid andmeid ja leide;
08:53
oftentimes when people shared the mistakes they were having,
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tihtipeale siis, kui inimesed rääkisid tehtud vigadest,
eksimustest ja kõigest, mis takistas läbimurret.
08:56
the error, the noise in the signal they were discovering.
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Midagi selle keskkonna juures -
08:59
And something about that environment --
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1969
09:01
and I've started calling it the "liquid network,"
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mina nimetan seda "vedelikvõrgustikuks" -
09:03
where you have lots of different ideas that are together,
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kus on koos palju erinevaid ideid,
09:06
different backgrounds, different interests,
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2029
erinevaid taustu ja huvisid, mis
09:08
jostling with each other, bouncing off each other --
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tõuklevad üksteisega, põrkuvad omavahel -
midagi selles keskkonnas
09:11
that environment is, in fact, the environment that leads to innovation.
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on see, mis viib innovatsioonini.
09:14
The other problem that people have is,
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Inimeste teine probleem
09:16
they like to condense their stories of innovation
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on nende soov suruda oma innovatsioonilood kokku
09:18
down to shorter time frames.
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lühemale ajaskaalale.
09:20
So they want to tell the story of the eureka moment.
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Nad tahavad rääkida loo just oma "heureka!" hetkest.
09:23
They want to say, "There I was, I was standing there,
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Nad tahavad öelda: "Seal ma siis seisin
09:25
and I had it all, suddenly, clear in my head."
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2164
ja korraga oligi kõik mu peas selge."
09:27
But, in fact, if you go back and look at the historical record,
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2958
Aga tegelikult, kui nad vaatavad ajas tagasi,
09:30
it turns out that a lot of important ideas have very long incubation periods.
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5534
tuleb välja, et paljudel tähtsatel ideedel
on väga pikk inkubatsiooniaeg.
09:36
I call this the "slow hunch."
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1905
Ma panin sellele nimeks "aeglane eelaimus".
09:38
We've heard a lot recently about hunch and instinct
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4531
Hiljuti on olnud palju kuulda
aimustest ja instinktist
09:42
and blink-like sudden moments of clarity,
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3101
ja hetkega saabuvast selgusest,
kuid tegelikult jäävad paljud suured ideed
09:46
but, in fact, a lot of great ideas linger on, sometimes for decades,
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4052
mõnikord aastakümneteks
kellegi pähe toppama.
09:50
in the back of people's minds.
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1457
09:51
They have a feeling that there's an interesting problem,
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2629
Neil on tunne, et on üks huvitav probleem,
aga neil pole veel päris õigeid tööriistu selle avastamiseks.
09:54
but they don't quite have the tools yet to discover them.
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Nad töötavad kogu aeg mingite probleemide kallal,
09:57
They spend all this time working on certain problems,
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2486
09:59
but there's another thing lingering there that they're interested in,
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3284
aga üks idee ootab ikka oma aega -
huvitav on see küll, aga lahendust nad ei leia.
10:02
but can't quite solve.
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1191
Darwin on selle kohta hea näide.
10:04
Darwin is a great example of this.
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1635
10:05
Darwin himself, in his autobiography,
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605693
2004
Darwin ise räägib oma autobiograafias
10:07
tells the story of coming up with the idea for natural selection
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3544
loo sellest, et idee looduslikust valikust
tekkis tal
10:11
as a classic eureka moment.
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1977
klassikalise "heureka!" hetkena.
10:13
He's in his study, it's October of 1838,
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Oma kabinetis,
1838. aasta oktoobris
10:17
and he's reading Malthus, actually, on population.
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luges ta üldse Malthust rahvastiku kohta.
10:19
And all of a sudden,
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1184
Ja ühtäkki
10:21
the basic algorithm of natural selection kind of pops into his head,
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turgatab talle pähe loodusliku valiku põhialgoritm ja ta lausub:
10:24
and he says, "Ah, at last, I had a theory with which to work."
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3155
"Lõpuks ometi oli mul teooria, millega edasi töötada."
10:27
That's in his autobiography.
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1871
See on ta autobiograafias.
10:29
About a decade or two ago,
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1325
Kümmekond aastat tagasi
10:30
a wonderful scholar named Howard Gruber
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1976
võttis õpetlane nimega Howard Gruber ette
10:32
went back and looked at Darwin's notebooks from this period.
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3659
ja vaatas läbi Darwini märkmikke sellest perioodist.
10:36
Darwin kept these copious notebooks,
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1767
Darwin pidas mahukaid märkmikke,
10:38
where he wrote down every little idea he had, every little hunch.
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kuhu ta kirjutas üles iga väikseimagi idee ja õrna aimuse.
10:41
And what Gruber found was that Darwin had the full theory of natural selection
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5293
Gruber leidis, et
Darwinil oli terve loodusliku valiku teooria olemas
10:46
for months and months and months
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1609
juba mitmeid kuid enne
10:48
before he had his alleged epiphany reading Malthus in October of 1838.
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648269
4901
oma väidetavat ilmutushetke
1838.a. oktoobris Malthust lugedes.
10:53
There are passages where you can read it,
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653194
1978
On olemas lõigud, mida lugedes tekib
10:55
and you think you're reading from a Darwin textbook,
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3101
tunne, nagu oleksid need mõnest Darwini õpikust
10:58
from the period before he has his epiphany.
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tema avastusele eelnevast ajast.
11:00
And so what you realize is that Darwin, in a sense,
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2457
Nii saamegi aru, et teatud mõttes oli Darwinil
11:03
had the idea, he had the concept,
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1803
juba see käsitlus olemas,
11:05
but was unable to fully think it yet.
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3230
aga veel mõtlemises "kinni".
11:08
And that is, actually, how great ideas often happen --
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2883
Tihtipeale head ideed just nii tekivadki:
11:11
they fade into view over long periods of time.
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nad tõusevad pinnale pika aja jooksul.
11:13
Now the challenge for all of us is:
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1844
Meie kõigi ees seisab väljakutse:
11:15
How do you create environments
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1442
kuidas luua selliseid keskkondi,
11:17
that allow these ideas to have this long half-life?
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2747
mis võimaldavad ideedele pikka küpsemisperioodi?
11:19
It's hard to go to your boss and say,
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1775
Raske on minna ja öelda oma ülemusele:
11:21
"I have an excellent idea for our organization.
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2221
"Mul on suurepärane idee meie ettevõtte jaoks.
11:23
It will be useful in 2020."
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1371
See muutub kasulikuks 2020. aastal.
11:25
(Laughter)
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1419
11:26
"Could you just give me some time to do that?"
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2212
Kas annate mulle sellega tegelemiseks aega?"
Mõned ettevõtted, nagu näiteks Google,
11:29
Now a couple of companies like Google have innovation time off, 20 percent time.
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3842
annavad 20% tööajast vabaks uuenduste jaoks,
11:32
In a sense, those are hunch-cultivating mechanisms in an organization.
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3338
mis tegelikult ongi ettevõttesisene aimuste küpsemise tööriist.
See ongi edu võti.
11:36
But that's a key thing.
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1773
11:38
And the other thing is to allow those hunches
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2403
Teine asi on lasta neil aimustel
11:40
to connect with other people's hunches;
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1881
luua ühendus teiste inimeste ideedega - mis ka tihtipeale juhtub.
11:42
that's what often happens.
255
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1255
11:43
You have half of an idea, somebody else has the other half,
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2778
Sul on üks pool ideest, kellelgi on selle idee teine pool
ja õiges keskkonnas olles
11:46
and if you're in the right environment,
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1866
muutuvad need millekski suuremaks kui 1+1.
11:48
they turn into something larger than the sum of their parts.
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2820
Ühest küljest
11:51
So in a sense,
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1152
räägime me tihti, kui tähtis on
11:52
we often talk about the value of protecting intellectual property --
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3228
intellektuaalse omandi kaitse,
11:55
you know, building barricades,
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1435
teate küll, tõkete ehitamine,
11:57
having secretive R and D labs, patenting everything that we have
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3850
arenduslaborites salatsemine, kõige olemasoleva patenteerimine,
12:00
so that those ideas will remain valuable,
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2467
et ideed säilitaksid oma väärtuse
12:03
and people will be incentivized to come up with more ideas,
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ja inimesed oleksid motiveeritud uusi ideid välja käima
ning kultuur muutuks uuendusaltimaks.
12:06
and the culture will be more innovative.
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2203
12:08
But I think there's a case to be made
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Teisest küljest aga on vajalik
12:10
that we should spend at least as much time, if not more,
267
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kulutada sama palju aega, kui mitte rohkem,
12:13
valuing the premise of connecting ideas
268
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1941
ideede eos ühendamise väärtustamisele,
12:15
and not just protecting them.
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1826
mitte ainult nende kaitsmisele.
12:17
And I'll leave you with this story,
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1688
Lõpetuseks räägin ma teile ühe loo,
12:19
which I think captures a lot of these values.
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mis minu arvates näitab neid väärtusi
12:21
It's just a wonderful tale of innovation, and how it happens in unlikely ways.
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5510
ja on väga hea lugu
ettearvamatust innovatsioonist.
12:27
It's October of 1957,
273
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3159
On 1957.a oktoober,
12:30
and Sputnik has just launched.
274
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2103
Sputnik on hiljuti startinud.
12:32
And we're in Laurel, Maryland,
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2045
Me oleme Laurelis, Marylandis,
12:34
at the Applied Physics Lab associated with Johns Hopkins University.
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4480
rakendusfüüsika laboris,
mis on osa Johns Hopkinsi Ülikoolist.
On esmaspäeva hommik
12:39
It's Monday morning,
277
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1223
12:40
and the news has just broken about this satellite
278
760561
2736
ja uudised Maa ümber tiirlevast satelliidist
on just teatavaks saanud.
12:43
that's now orbiting the planet.
279
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1578
12:44
And, of course, this is nerd heaven, right?
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2530
Mõistagi oleme me nohikute paradiisis.
12:47
There are all these physics geeks who are there,
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2310
Kõik need füüsikatarkurid mõtlevad:
12:49
thinking, "Oh my gosh! This is incredible. I can't believe this has happened."
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3695
"Jessas! See on vapustav. Ma ei suuda uskuda, et see juhtus."
Kaks neist,
12:53
And two of them, two twentysomething researchers at the APL,
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2818
füüsikalabori teadurid vanuses 20 ja natuke peale,
12:56
are there at the cafeteria table,
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2088
istuvad kohvikulaua taga
12:58
having an informal conversation with a bunch of their colleagues.
285
778484
3056
ja ajavad töökaaslastega niisama juttu.
13:01
And these two guys are named Guier and Weiffenbach.
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2417
Nende meeste nimed on Guier ja Weiffenbach.
13:04
They start talking, and one of them says,
287
784005
1959
Nad ajavad juttu ja üks neist ütleb:
13:05
"Hey, has anybody tried to listen for this thing?
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2913
"Hei, kas keegi on proovinud seda värki kuulata?
13:08
There's this, you know, man-made satellite up there in outer space
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3391
Seal üleval kosmoses on ju inimkäte loodud satelliit,
kindlasti saadab see välja mingisugust signaali.
13:12
that's obviously broadcasting some kind of signal.
290
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2355
Seda saaks ilmselt kuulda, kui õigesti häälestada."
13:14
We could probably hear it, if we tune in."
291
794719
2008
13:16
So they ask around to a couple of their colleagues,
292
796751
2387
Nad uurivad mõne kolleegi käest
ja need vastavad: "Ei, ma pole selle peale mõelnud.
13:19
and everybody's like, "No, I hadn't thought of doing that.
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2739
See on huvitav idee."
13:21
That's an interesting idea."
294
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1342
Tuleb välja, et Weiffenbach on tegelikult ekspert
13:23
And it turns out Weiffenbach is kind of an expert in microwave reception,
295
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3929
mikrolainete vastuvõtmise alal
13:27
and he's got a little antenna set up with an amplifier in his office.
296
807244
3864
ja tal on tööruumis olemas
väiksed antennid koos võimendiga.
13:31
So Guier and Weiffenbach go back to Weiffenbach's office,
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2704
Guier ja Weiffenbach lähevad tagasi viimase ruumi
13:33
and they start noodling around -- "hacking," as we might call it now.
298
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3296
ja hakkavad proovima - või häkkima, nagu praegusel ajal öeldakse.
Juba paari tunni pärast püüavad nad signaali kinni,
13:37
And after a couple of hours, they start picking up the signal,
299
817180
3101
sest Nõukogude Liit tegi Sputniku
13:40
because the Soviets made Sputnik very easy to track;
300
820305
3046
väga lihtsalt jälgitavaks.
13:43
it was right at 20 MHz, so you could pick it up really easily,
301
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2963
Sagedus oli täpselt 20 MHz ja signaali oli kerge kinni püüda,
13:46
because they were afraid people would think it was a hoax, basically,
302
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3250
sest nad kartsid, et seda peetakse pettuseks.
Nii nad muutsidki selle kergesti leitavaks.
13:49
so they made it really easy to find.
303
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1736
Need kaks meest istuvad siis seal ja kuulavad seda signaali.
13:51
So these guys are sitting there, listening to this signal,
304
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2878
ja inimesed tulevad ruumist läbi ja ütlevad:
13:54
and people start coming into the office and saying,
305
834298
2395
"Vau, see on päris lahe. Las ma kuulan ka. Vinge!"
13:56
"That's pretty cool. Can I hear?"
306
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1598
13:58
And before long, they think, "Jeez, this is kind of historic.
307
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2921
Varsti tuleb neil uus mõte: "Aga see on ju midagi ajaloolist.
14:01
We may be the first people in the United States listening to this.
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3116
Võib-olla oleme me esimesed Ameerika Ühendriikides, kes seda kuulevad.
Salvestame seda."
14:04
We should record it."
309
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1159
14:05
So they bring in this big, clunky analog tape recorder
310
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2548
Nad toovad kohale suure, kohmaka magnetofoni
ja hakkavad neid väikeseid piikse lindistama.
14:08
and start recording these little bleep, bleeps.
311
848179
2394
14:10
And they start writing down the date stamp, time stamps
312
850597
2639
Nad kirjutavad üles ka kuupäeva ja ajamärgised
14:13
for each little bleep that they record.
313
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2323
iga väikese lindistatud piiksu kohta.
14:16
And then they start thinking,
314
856643
1401
Nad hakkavad mõtlema: "Aga, vaadake, me märkame siin
14:18
"Well, gosh, we're noticing small little frequency variations here.
315
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3243
väikeseid muutusi sageduses.
14:21
We could probably calculate the speed that the satellite is traveling
316
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4991
Me saame ilmselt arvutada kiiruse,
millega satelliit liigub,
14:26
if we do a little basic math here using the Doppler effect."
317
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4030
kui teeme mõned arvutused
Doppleri efekti kasutades."
14:30
And they played around with it a little bit more
318
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2256
Siis nad mängisid sellega veel natuke ja
rääkisid paari kolleegiga
14:33
and talked to a couple of their colleagues who had other specialties.
319
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3809
teistelt erialadelt.
Siis nad arvasid: "Teate, aga
14:37
And they said, "You know,
320
877017
1211
14:38
we could actually look at the slope of the Doppler effect
321
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2721
me usume, et saame Doppleri efekti kallet vaadates
14:40
to figure out the points at which the satellite is closest to our antenna
322
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3524
määrata ära need punktid,
kus satelliit on antennidele kõige lähemal
14:44
and the points at which it's furthest away.
323
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2124
ja kus ta on nendest kõige kaugemal.
14:46
That's pretty cool."
324
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1152
See on päris lahe."
14:47
Eventually, they get permission -- this is all a little side project
325
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3224
Lõpuks nad saavadki loa -
see kõik oli väike kõrvalprojekt, mis ei olnud ametlikult nende tööülesanne.
14:51
that hadn't been officially part of their job description --
326
891117
2829
14:53
they get permission to use the new UNIVAC computer
327
893970
2499
Nad saavad loa kasutada uut UNIVAC arvutit,
14:56
that takes up an entire room that they'd just gotten at the APL.
328
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3030
mis võtab enda alla terve toa ja mille labor oli just saanud.
14:59
And they run some more of the numbers,
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899547
1819
Nad teevad veel mõned arvutused ja umbes kolme-nelja nädala pärast
15:01
and at the end of about three or four weeks,
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901390
2050
on nad kaardistanud satelliidi täpse trajektoori
15:03
turns out they have mapped the exact trajectory
331
903464
2206
15:05
of this satellite around the Earth,
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905694
1672
ümber Maa - ning seda kõike
15:07
just from listening to this one little signal,
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lihtsalt üht väikest signaali kuulates,
15:09
going off on this little side hunch that they'd been inspired to do
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3379
üht kõrvalist aimust järgides, millele nad said innustust
15:12
over lunch one morning.
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1811
söögilauavestluse ajal.
15:15
A couple weeks later, their boss, Frank McClure,
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915810
2500
Paar nädalat hiljem kutsub nende ülemus Frank McClure
15:18
pulls them into the room and says,
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1642
nad oma kabinetti ja ütleb:
15:20
"Hey, you guys, I have to ask you something
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920000
2271
"Kuulge, ma pean teilt midagi küsima
15:22
about that project you were working on.
339
922295
1875
projekti kohta, mille kallal te töötasite.
15:24
You've figured out an unknown location
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924194
3034
Te määrasite kindlaks ümber Maa tiirleva
satelliidi asukoha
15:27
of a satellite orbiting the planet from a known location on the ground.
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4392
ühest kindlast asukohast maa peal.
Kas teistpidi ka saab?
15:32
Could you go the other way?
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932034
1602
15:33
Could you figure out an unknown location on the ground
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933660
2549
Kas te saate kindlaks määrata teadmata asukoha Maal,
kui teate satelliidi asukohta?"
15:36
if you knew the location of the satellite?"
344
936233
2073
15:38
And they thought about it and they said,
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1910
Nad mõtlesid ja ütlesid:
15:40
"Well, I guess maybe you could. Let's run the numbers here."
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"Arvatavasti saab. Peame mõned arvutused tegema."
15:43
So they went back and thought about it
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1829
Nad läksid tagasi ja mõtlesid sellest.
15:45
and came back and said, "Actually, it'll be easier."
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2438
Tagasi tulles ütlesid nad: "See on tegelikult lihtsamgi."
McClure vastas: "Väga hea.
15:48
And he said, "Oh, that's great,
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948095
1528
15:49
because, see, I have these new nuclear submarines"
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949647
2508
Vaadake, mul on uued tuumaallveelaevad,
15:52
(Laughter)
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1002
neid parasjagu ehitatakse.
15:53
"that I'm building.
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953205
1347
15:54
And it's really hard to figure out how to get your missile
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2869
Väga raske on kindlaks määrata raketi teekonda,
15:57
so that it will land right on top of Moscow
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2093
et see täpselt Moskvat tabaks,
15:59
if you don't know where the submarine is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
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kui pole teada, kus allveelaev Vaikses ookeanis täpselt asub.
Me mõtlesime, et võiks üles saata hulga satelliite ja
16:03
So we're thinking we could throw up a bunch of satellites
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963199
2734
16:05
and use it to track our submarines
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2703
jälgida nendega meie allveelaevu,
16:08
and figure out their location in the middle of the ocean.
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968684
2681
määrates kindlaks nende asukoha keset ookeani.
Kas te saate sellega tegeleda?"
16:11
Could you work on that problem?"
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1529
16:12
And that's how GPS was born.
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2241
Nii sündiski GPS.
30 aastat hiljem
16:16
Thirty years later,
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976168
1167
16:17
Ronald Reagan, actually, opened it up and made it an open platform
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3466
avas Ronald Reagan selle tsiviilkasutuseks ja muutis avatud platvormiks,
16:20
that anybody could build upon,
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1620
kuhu igaüks võib peale ehitada
16:22
and anybody could come along and build new technology
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2554
ja juurde arendada uut tehnoloogiat, mis
16:25
that would create and innovate on top of this open platform,
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985071
4041
oleks loov ja innovaatiline.
Sellele avatud platvormile
16:29
left it open for anyone to do pretty much anything they wanted with it.
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989136
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võis igaüks rajada
praktiliselt kõike, mida ta teha tahtis.
16:32
And now, I guarantee you, certainly half of this room, if not more,
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5079
Ja nüüd ma garanteerin,
et vähemalt pooltel siinolijaist
on praegu taskus mõni seade,
16:38
has a device sitting in their pocket right now
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998043
2175
mis räägib ühega neist satelliitidest avakosmoses.
16:40
that is talking to one of these satellites in outer space.
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2759
Ja ma vean kihla, et vähemalt üks teist
16:43
And I bet you one of you, if not more,
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2761
16:45
has used said device and said satellite system
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1005810
3122
on kasutanud seda seadet ja satelliite
16:48
to locate a nearby coffeehouse somewhere in the last --
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1008956
3544
mõne lähedal asuva kohviku leidmiseks viimase ...
(Naer)
16:52
(Laughter)
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1430
16:53
in the last day or last week, right?
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2808
päeva või nädala jooksul, õigus?
16:56
(Applause)
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3273
(Aplaus)
Ja see, ma usun,
17:00
And that, I think,
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1020107
1572
17:01
is a great case study, a great lesson
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1021703
2549
on väga hea näide ja õppetund
17:04
in the power -- the marvelous, unplanned, emergent, unpredictable power --
378
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4944
sellest imelisest, planeerimata, arenevast,
ettearvamatust jõust, mis on
17:09
of open innovative systems.
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1029244
1994
avatud innovaatilistel süsteemidel.
17:11
When you build them right,
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1240
Kui need õigesti ehitada, antakse neile hoopis teistsugune suund,
17:12
they will be led to completely new directions
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2106
kui nende loojad eales ette oskavad kujutada.
17:14
the creators never even dreamed of.
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1034656
1671
Needsamad kaks meest
17:16
I mean, here you have these guys
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1525
17:17
who basically thought they were just following this hunch,
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1037900
2720
mõtlesid, et nad järgisid lihtsalt üht ideekest,
seda väikest tekkinud kirge;
17:20
this little passion that had developed,
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1040644
1880
pärastpoole nad arvasid, et peavad külma sõda,
17:22
then they thought they were fighting the Cold War,
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2343
ja nüüd tuleb välja, et nad aitavad kellelgi lihtsalt
17:24
and then, it turns out, they're just helping somebody find a soy latte.
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3371
tassi kohvi leida.
(Naer)
17:28
(Laughter)
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1134
17:29
That is how innovation happens.
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1049468
2139
Nii toimubki innovatsioon.
17:31
Chance favors the connected mind.
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Juhus soosib seoseid loovat mõistust.
17:33
Thank you very much.
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Suur tänu!
17:35
(Applause)
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(Aplaus)
Selle veebisaidi kohta

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