Where good ideas come from | Steven Johnson

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Fifty-two minutes ago, I took this picture about 10 blocks from here.

Prije nekoliko minuta, snimio sam ovu fotografiju

otprilike desetak ulica odavde.

This is the Grand Café here in Oxford.

Ovo je Grand Cafe, tu u Oxfordu.

I took this picture

Snimio sam ovu fotografiju jer ispada da je to

because this turns out to be the first coffeehouse to open in England,

prvi kafić otvoren

u Engleskoj 1650. godine.

in 1650.

That's its great claim to fame.

U tome leži njegova slava.

And I wanted to show it to you,

Želio sam vam ga pokazati,

not because I want to give you the Starbucks tour

ne zato da vas provedem kroz povijesni Starbucks

of historic England --

Engleske,

(Laughter)

već stoga što su

but rather because the English coffeehouse was crucial

Engleski kafići bili presudni

to the development and spread of one of the great intellectual flowerings

za razvoj i širenje

jednog od najvećih intelektualnih procvata u zadnjih 500 godina,

of the last 500 years,

ono što danas zovemo Prosvjetiteljstvom.

what we now call the Enlightenment.

And the coffeehouse played such a big role in the birth of the Enlightenment

A kafići su odigrali tako veliku ulogu

u rođenju Prosvjetiteljstva,

in part because of what people were drinking there.

djelomice poradi onoga što se u njima pilo.

Zato što je, prije širenja

Because, before the spread of coffee and tea through British culture,

kave i čaja britanskom kulturom,

what people drank -- both elite and mass folks drank --

ono što su ljudi pili - ono što je bilo piće i elite i narodnih masa –

day in and day out, from dawn until dusk,

iz dana u dan, od jutra do sutra,

was alcohol.

bio alkohol.

Alcohol was the daytime beverage of choice.

Alkohol je bio dnevno piće izbora.

You would drink a little beer with breakfast

Popili biste malo pivo uz doručak i nešto vina uz ručak,

and have a little wine at lunch,

a little gin, particularly around 1650,

malo džina – osobito oko 1650-e –

and top it off with a little beer and wine at the end of the day.

a povrh toga malo piva i vina na kraju dana.

Ovo je bio zdravi izbor, ustvari,

That was the healthy choice, because the water wasn't safe to drink.

zato što voda nije bila sigurna za piće.

And so, effectively, until the rise of the coffeehouse,

I tako, zapravo, do uspona kafića,

you had an entire population that was effectively drunk all day.

cijela populacija

bila je pijana cijeli dan.

(Laughter)

And you can imagine what that would be like in your own life --

A možete si zamisliti čemu bi to bilo nalik, zapravo, u vašem vlastitom životu –

a ja znam da je to istina nekih od vas –

and I know this is true of some of you -- if you were drinking all day --

ako ste pili po cijeli dan,

(Laughter)

and then you switched from a depressant to a stimulant in your life.

kad biste se prebacili sa depresiva na stimulanse u svom životu,

imali biste bolje ideje.

You would have better ideas.

You would be sharper and more alert.

Bili biste oštroumniji i živahniji.

So it's not an accident that a great flowering of innovation happened

I zato nije slučajno da se veliki procvat inovacija dogodio

u trenutku kad se Engleska prebacila na čaj i kavu.

as England switched to tea and coffee.

But the other thing that makes the coffeehouse important

No druga stvar koja kafiće čini važnima

is the architecture of the space.

je arhitektura prostora.

It was a space where people would get together,

To je bio prostor u kojemu su se zajedno našli ljudi

from different backgrounds, different fields of expertise,

različita obrazovanja,

različitih područja ekspertize i imali nešto zajedničko.

and share.

It was a space, as Matt Ridley talked about, where ideas could have sex.

To je bio prostor, kao što je govorio Matt Ridley, u kojemu su ideje mogle doživjeti seks.

Ovo je bio njihov bračni krevet, u nekom smislu.

This was their conjugal bed, in a sense; ideas would get together there.

Ideje bi se tamo spajale.

And an astonishing number of innovations from this period

Iznenađujući broj inovacija iz toga doba

have a coffeehouse somewhere in their story.

imaju kafić negdje u svojoj priči.

Provodio sam mnogo vremena razmišljajući o kafićima

I've been spending a lot of time thinking about coffeehouses

for the last five years

u zadnjih pet godina,

because I've been kind of on this quest

jer sam bio u traganju za

odgovorom na pitanje

to investigate this question of where good ideas come from.

od kuda dolaze dobre ideje.

What are the environments that lead to unusual levels of innovation,

Kakva su okruženja

koja dovode do neuobičajene razine inovacija,

neuobičajene razine kreativnosti?

unusual levels of creativity?

What's the kind of environmental -- what is the space of creativity?

Koja je to vrsta okruženja –

što je prostor za kreativnost?

And what I've done is,

I ono što sam učinio,

I've looked at both environments like the coffeehouse,

tragao sam za okruženjem nalik na kafić;

proučavao sam medijska okruženja kakav je World Wide Web,

I've looked at media environments like the World Wide Web,

a koji je bio izvanredno inovativan;

that have been extraordinarily innovative;

vratio sam se u povijest prvih gradova;

I've gone back to the history of the first cities;

čak sam otišao do bioloških okruženja,

I've even gone to biological environments, like coral reefs and rain forests,

kao što su koraljni grebeni i prašume,

koji sadržavaju neobične razine biološke inovativnosti;

that involve unusual levels of biological innovation.

And what I've been looking for is shared patterns,

a ono što sam tražio bio je zajednički obrazac,

signature behavior that shows up again and again

neku vrstu znakovitog ponašanja koja se iznova

pojavljuje u svim tim okruženjima.

in all of these environments.

Are there recurring patterns that we can learn from,

Postoje li ponovljeni obrasci iz kojih možemo naučiti,

that we can take and apply to our own lives

koje možemo preuzeti i primijeniti u vlastitim životima,

or our own organizations or our own environments

ili našim vlastitim organizacijama,

kako bismo ih učinili kreativnijima i inovativnijima?

to make them more creative and innovative?

I mislim da sam ih pronašao nekoliko.

And I think I've found a few.

But what you have to do to make sense of this

Ali ono što trebate učiniti da bi ovo imalo smisla

and to really understand these principles is,

i da bi stvarno razumjeli ove principe

you have to do away with

jest odmaknuti se

the way in which our conventional metaphors and language steers us

od uobičajenih metafora i jezika

koji nas usmjerava prema

towards certain concepts of idea creation.

određenim konceptima kreiranja ideja.

We have this very rich vocabulary to describe moments of inspiration.

Mi imamo taj vrlo bogati rječnik

koji opisuje trenutke inspiracije.

Imamo trenutke spoznaje,

We have the "flash" of insight,

the "stroke" of insight,

bljesak spoznaje,

we have "epiphanies,"

imamo uvide, „eureka!“ trenutke,

we have eureka moments,

we have the "light bulb" moments, right?

zatim trenutke prosvjetljenja, zar ne?

All of these concepts, as rhetorically florid as they are,

Svi ovi pojmovi,

kao vrste retoričkih ukrasa, što i jesu,

share this basic assumption,

dijele istu osnovnu pretpostavku,

which is that an idea is a single thing.

a to je da je ideja jedna stvar,

It's something that happens often in a wonderful, illuminating moment.

nešto što se često događa

u predivnom trenutku prosvjetljenja.

But, in fact, what I would argue and what you really need to begin with

No ustvari, što bih ja prodiskutirao, i od čega vi stvarno trebate početi,

je misao da je ideja mreža

is this idea that an idea is a network on the most elemental level.

na najosnovnijoj razini.

I mean, this is what is happening inside your brain.

Ustvari, evo što se događa u vašoj glavi.

An idea -- a new idea -- is a new network of neurons

Neka ideja, nova ideja, je nova mreža neurona

firing in sync with each other inside your brain.

koji šalju signale sinkronizirano jedan s drugim u vašoj glavi.

It's a new configuration that has never formed before.

To je konfiguracija nikad prije stvorena.

And the question is: How do you get your brain into environments

Pitanje je: kako staviti svoj mozak u okoliš

where these new networks are going to be more likely to form?

u kojemu je najvjerojatnije da će se ove mreže složiti?

And it turns out that, in fact, the network patterns of the outside world

Ispostavilo se, ustvari, da obrasci mreža iz vanjskog svijeta

oponašaju mreže

mimic a lot of the network patterns of the internal world of a human brain.

unutarnjeg svijeta mozga.

So the metaphor I'd like to use,

Metaforu koju bih volio koristiti

uzeo sam

I can take from a story of a great idea that's quite recent --

iz suvremene priče o izvrsnoj ideji –

a lot more recent than the 1650s.

znatno suvremenije od 1650-ih.

A wonderful guy named Timothy Prestero

Izvanredni momak imenom Timothy Prestero

has an organization called Design That Matters.

koji ima tvrtku imenom … organizaciju koja se zove Dizajn koji je važan.

They decided to tackle this really pressing problem

Oni su odlučili latiti se neodložnog problema,

of the terrible problems we have with infant mortality rates

znate, užasnog problema smrtnosti djece

in the developing world.

u zemljama u razvoju.

One of the things that's very frustrating about this

Jedna od stvari koja je užasno frustrirajuća u vezi s tim,

is that we know by getting modern neonatal incubators into any context,

je postaviti moderne inkubatore

za dojenčad,

if we can keep premature babies warm, basically -- it's very simple --

jer ako možete održavati preuranjeno rođene bebe toplima, u osnovi - to je vrlo jednostavno –

we can halve infant mortality rates in those environments.

možete prepoloviti dojenačku smrt u tim krajevima.

So the technology is there.

Dakle, tehnologija postoji.

These are standard in all the industrialized worlds.

Ona je standard u cijelom industrijskom svijetu.

The problem is, if you buy a $40,000 incubator,

Problem je, ako kupite inkubator od 40 000 $ i

and you send it off to a midsized village in Africa,

pošaljete ga u

selo srednje veličine u Afriku,

it will work great for a year or two years,

radit će odlično godinu dana ili dvije,

and then something will go wrong and it will break,

zatim će se pokvariti i sve će propasti

and it will remain broken forever,

jer će ostati zauvijek pokvaren,

because you don't have a whole system of spare parts,

jer vam nedostaje cijeli sustav opskrbe rezervnim dijelovima

and you don't have the on-the-ground expertise

i nemate na licu mjesta stručnjake

to fix this $40,000 piece of equipment.

da popravite komad opreme vrijedan 40 000$.

So you end up having this problem where you spend all this money

I tako završite s tim problemom nakon što ste potrošili sav taj novac

da dopremite pomoć i svu tu naprednu elektroniku do ovih zemalja,

getting aid and all these advanced electronics to these countries,

koja na kraju završi kao beskorisna.

and it ends up being useless.

Pa su Prestero i njegov tim odlučili

So what Prestero and his team decided to do

potražiti uokolo i pronaći: koja su sredstva u izobilju na raspolaganju

was to look around and see: What are the abundant resources

u kontekstu zemalja u razvoju?

in these developing world contexts?

And what they noticed was,

Primijetili su kako oni nemaju puno DVR-ova

they don't have a lot of DVRs, they don't have a lot of microwaves,

i mikrovalnih pećnica,

but they seem to do a pretty good job of keeping their cars on the road.

ali se čini kako rade sasvim dobar posao u održavanju svojih automobila na cestama.

There's a Toyota 4Runner on the street in all these places.

Na sve strane na svim ulicama vidite

Toyota Forerunner.

They seem to have the expertise to keep cars working.

Čini se kako imaju stručnjake za održavanje automobila.

So they started to think,

Zato su počeli razmišljati,

"Could we build a neonatal incubator

„Možemo li napraviti inkubator za dojenčad

that's built entirely out of automobile parts?"

sastavljen samo od automobilskih dijelova?“

And this is what they came up with.

I evo do čega su došli.

It's called the NeoNurture device.

Zove se uređaj za njegovanje novorođenčadi.

From the outside, it looks like a normal little thing

Izvana izgleda kao normalna mala stvarčica

you'd find in a modern Western hospital.

koju nalazite u modernim zapadnjačkim bolnicama.

Unutra su automobilski dijelovi.

In the inside, it's all car parts.

It's got a fan, it's got headlights for warmth,

Ima ventilator, farove za grijanje,

zvono sa ulaznih vrata za alarm.

it's got door chimes for alarm,

it runs off a car battery.

Ide na akumulator iz automobila.

And so all you need is the spare parts from your Toyota

Pa tako sve što vam treba su rezervni dijelovi iz vaše Toyote

i vještina popravljanja farova,

and the ability to fix a headlight,

da ga popravite.

and you can repair this thing.

Now that's a great idea,

I sada, to je izvrsna ideja, ali ono što želim reći,

but I'd like to say that, in fact,

this is a great metaphor for the way ideas happen.

da je ovo ustvari izvrsna metafora za način kako se događaju velike ideje.

We like to think our breakthrough ideas, you know,

Volimo misliti kao su naše revolucionarne ideje, znate,

poput posve novog inkubatora od 40 000$,

are like that $40,000, brand-new incubator,

vrhunac tehnologije,

state-of-the-art technology.

But more often than not, they're cobbled together

no češće ne nego da, sklepane su od

from whatever parts that happen to be around nearby.

kakvih god komadića koji su se zadesili u blizini.

Preuzimamo ideje od drugih ljudi,

We take ideas from other people,

od ljudi od kojih smo učili, od ljudi na koje smo naletjeli u kafiću

people we've learned from, people we run into in the coffee shop,

i skrpamo ih zajedno u novi oblik i stvorimo nešto novo.

and we stitch them together into new forms and we create something new.

To je stvarno mjesto na kojemu nastaju ideje.

That's really where innovation happens.

And that means we have to change some of our models

To znači da moramo promijeniti neke od naših modela

of what innovation and deep thinking really looks like, right?

o tome kako inovacije i duboko promišljanje stvarno izgledaju.

I mean, this is one vision of it.

Ustvari, ovo je jedno viđenje toga.

Another is Newton and the apple, when Newton was at Cambridge.

Drugo je Newton i jabuka, dok je Newton bio u Cambridgu.

This is a statue from Oxford.

Ovo je statua iz Oxforda.

You know, you're sitting there, thinking a deep thought,

Znate, sjedite tamo duboko zamišljeni,

jabuka pada sa drveta i vi imate teoriju gravitacije.

the apple falls from the tree, and you have the theory of gravity.

U stvari, prostori koji su povijesno vodili ka ovom otkriću

In fact, the spaces that have historically led to innovation tend to look like this.

izgledaju ovako, točno.

This is Hogarth's famous painting of a kind of political dinner at a tavern,

Ovo je slavna Hogarthova slika nekakvog političkog domjenka u gostionici,

ali tako su nekad izgledali kafići.

but this is what the coffee shops looked like back then.

This is the kind of chaotic environment where ideas were likely to come together,

To je ona vrsta kaotičnog okruženja

u kojemu su se sretale ideje,

where people were likely to have new, interesting, unpredictable collisions,

u kojemu su ljudi imali

nove, zanimljive, nepredvidljive susrete – ljudi iz različitih okruženja.

people from different backgrounds.

So if we're trying to build organizations that are more innovative,

I tako, ako nastojimo izgraditi organizacije koje su inovativnije,

moramo izgraditi prostore koji, iznenađujuće, izgledaju više poput ovoga.

we have to build spaces that, strangely enough, look a bit more like this.

Ovako bi trebao izgledati vaš ured

This is what your office should look like, it's part of my message here.

i to je dio moje poruke ovdje.

Jedan od problema vezanih za to da su

And one of the problems with this is that, when you research this field,

ljudi zapravo – kada se istražuje ovo područje –

people are notoriously unreliable

ljudi su grozno nepouzdani

when they actually self-report on where they have their own good ideas,

kada zapravo sami govore o tome

gdje su dobili dobre ideje

or their history of their best ideas.

ili o povijesti njihovih najboljih ideja.

And a few years ago, a wonderful researcher named Kevin Dunbar

Prije nekoliko godina odlični istraživač Kevih Dunbar

odlučio je ići uokolo i

decided to go around and basically do the Big Brother approach

učiniti „Big Brother“ pristup

to figuring out where good ideas come from.

otkrivanju odakle dolaze dobre ideje.

He went to a bunch of science labs around the world

Otišao je u mnogo znanstvenih laboratorija u svijetu

and videotaped everyone as they were doing every little bit of their job:

i snimao sve

dok su radili i najmanje djeliće svojih poslova.

when they were sitting in front of the microscope,

Kada su sjedili ispred mikroskopa,

when they were talking to colleagues at the watercooler ...

kada su pričali s kolegama pored stroja za vodu i ostale stvari.

Snimio je sve razgovore i

And he recorded all these conversations

pokušao otkriti gdje se najvažnije ideje

and tried to figure out where the most important ideas happened.

događaju.

And when we think about the classic image of the scientist in the lab,

Kada razmišljamo o klasičnoj slici znanstvenika u laboratoriju,

we have this image -- you know, they're poring over the microscope,

zamišljamo ih – znate, nagnute nad mikroskopom

and they see something in the tissue sample,

i gledaju nešto u uzorku tkiva.

and -- "Eureka!" -- they've got the idea.

I „eureka!“ dobili su ideju.

What happened, actually, when Dunbar looked at the tape,

Kada je Dunbar pogledao sve snimke zapravo je vidio

is that, in fact, almost all of the important breakthrough ideas

da se gotovo sva značajna otkrića

did not happen alone in the lab, in front of the microscope.

nisu dogodila sama u laboratoriju, pred mikroskopima.

They happened at the conference table at the weekly lab meeting,

Dogodila su se za konferencijskim stolovima

za vrijeme tjednog sastanka,

when everybody got together and shared their latest data and findings,

gdje su se svi sastali i podijelili svoje najnovije podatke i istraživanja,

oftentimes when people shared the mistakes they were having,

često su ljudi podijelili i pogreške koje su napravili,

šum u signalu u otkrićima.

the error, the noise in the signal they were discovering.

I nešto vezano za to okruženje –

And something about that environment --

and I've started calling it the "liquid network,"

počeo sam ga zvati „tekuća mreža,“

where you have lots of different ideas that are together,

gdje zajedno postoji mnogo različitih ideja,

different backgrounds, different interests,

različitih obrazovanja, različitih interesa,

jostling with each other, bouncing off each other --

koji se sukobljavaju i odbijaju jedan od drugog –

to okruženje je zapravo,

that environment is, in fact, the environment that leads to innovation.

okruženje koje vodi do otkrića.

The other problem that people have is,

Drugi problem koji ljudi imaju je

they like to condense their stories of innovation

to što vole svoje priče o otkrićima svesti

down to shorter time frames.

na manje vremenske okvire.

So they want to tell the story of the eureka moment.

Zapravo žele ispričati priču o „eureka!“ trenutku.

They want to say, "There I was, I was standing there,

Žele reći „ Bio sam tamo, stajao i

and I had it all, suddenly, clear in my head."

odjednom mi se sve razbistrilo u glavi.“

But, in fact, if you go back and look at the historical record,

Zapravo, ako se ode unatrag i pogleda prošle zabilješke,

it turns out that a lot of important ideas have very long incubation periods.

ispostavi se da mnogo važnih ideja

imaju dugačko vrijeme inkubacije.

I call this the "slow hunch."

To zovem „sporom slutnjom.“

We've heard a lot recently about hunch and instinct

U posljednje vrijeme čuli smo dosta

o slutnjama i instinktu i

and blink-like sudden moments of clarity,

iznenadnim trenucima bistrine,

ali zapravo se mnoge velike ideje

but, in fact, a lot of great ideas linger on, sometimes for decades,

zadržavaju, nekada čak i desetljećima,

skrivene u ljudskim umovima.

in the back of people's minds.

They have a feeling that there's an interesting problem,

Oni imaju osjećaj da postoji zanimljiv problem

ali još nemaju oruđe da ih otkriju.

but they don't quite have the tools yet to discover them.

Provode sve vrijeme radeći na određenom problemu,

They spend all this time working on certain problems,

but there's another thing lingering there that they're interested in,

a tu je zapravo nešto drugo

što ih zanima, ali ne mogu to riješiti.

but can't quite solve.

Darwin je odličan primjer toga.

Darwin is a great example of this.

Darwin himself, in his autobiography,

Darwin sam u svojoj autobiografiji

tells the story of coming up with the idea for natural selection

priča priču o dolasku do ideje

prirodne selekcije

as a classic eureka moment.

kao klasičnom „eureka“ trenutku.

He's in his study, it's October of 1838,

On je u svojoj radnoj sobi,

listopad je 1838.

and he's reading Malthus, actually, on population.

i on čita Malthusovo djelo o populaciji.

And all of a sudden,

I odjednom,

the basic algorithm of natural selection kind of pops into his head,

osnovni algoritam prirodne selekcije stvori mu se u mislima i

and he says, "Ah, at last, I had a theory with which to work."

on kaže, „ Ah, konačno imam teoriju s kojom mogu raditi.“

That's in his autobiography.

To stoji u njegovoj autobiografiji.

About a decade or two ago,

Prije desetljeće-dva,

a wonderful scholar named Howard Gruber

izvanredni učenjak Howard Gruber

went back and looked at Darwin's notebooks from this period.

pogledao je Darwinove bilježnice iz tog razdoblja.

Darwin kept these copious notebooks,

Darwin je imao pune bilježnice

where he wrote down every little idea he had, every little hunch.

gdje je zapisivao svaku malu ideju koju je imao, svaku slutnju.

And what Gruber found was that Darwin had the full theory of natural selection

Ono što je Gruber otkrio je to

da je Darwin imao cijelu teoriju prirodne selekcije

for months and months and months

mjesecima i mjesecima

before he had his alleged epiphany reading Malthus in October of 1838.

prije navodnog otkrića dok je

čitao Malthusa listopada 1838.

There are passages where you can read it,

Postoje odlomci koji se mogu pročitati i

and you think you're reading from a Darwin textbook,

pomislite da je to Darwinov udžbenik,

from the period before he has his epiphany.

a zapravo su iz razdoblja prije njegovog otkrića.

And so what you realize is that Darwin, in a sense,

I onda shvatite da je Darwin

had the idea, he had the concept,

imao ideju, imao koncept,

but was unable to fully think it yet.

ali ju nije mogao potpuno domisliti.

And that is, actually, how great ideas often happen --

I to je način kako se velike ideje obično dogode;

they fade into view over long periods of time.

postaju jasnije nakon većeg vremenskog razdoblja.

Now the challenge for all of us is:

Sada je izazov za sve nas:

How do you create environments

kako stvoriti okruženje

that allow these ideas to have this long half-life?

koje dopušta tim idejama da imaju takav način polu-života, zar ne?

It's hard to go to your boss and say,

Teško je otići do svog šefa i reći

"I have an excellent idea for our organization.

„ Imam odličnu ideju vezanu za našu organizaciju.

It will be useful in 2020."

Bit će korisna 2020.

(Laughter)

"Could you just give me some time to do that?"

Možete li mi samo dati vremena da to učinim?“

Nekoliko tvrtki, poput Googlea,

Now a couple of companies like Google have innovation time off, 20 percent time.

imaju slobodno vrijeme za inovacije, 20 posto vremena,

In a sense, those are hunch-cultivating mechanisms in an organization.

koje je zapravo mehanizam za uzgajanje slutnji u organizaciji.

To je ključna stvar.

But that's a key thing.

And the other thing is to allow those hunches

Druga stvar je omogućiti slutnjama

to connect with other people's hunches;

da se povežu sa slutnjama drugih ljudi; to se često događa.

that's what often happens.

You have half of an idea, somebody else has the other half,

Vi imate polovicu ideje, netko ima drugu polovicu i,

ako ste u pravom okruženju,

and if you're in the right environment,

one narastu u nešto veće od zbroja svojih dijelova.

they turn into something larger than the sum of their parts.

Često

So in a sense,

govorimo o važnosti

we often talk about the value of protecting intellectual property --

zaštite intelektualnog vlasništva,

you know, building barricades,

znate, gradimo barikade,

having secretive R and D labs, patenting everything that we have

imamo tajne laboratorije za istraživanje i razvoj, patentiramo sve što imamo

so that those ideas will remain valuable,

kako bi te ideje ostale vrijedne,

and people will be incentivized to come up with more ideas,

i ljudi bili potaknuti da dobiju još ideja

i civilizacija bi bila inovativnija.

and the culture will be more innovative.

But I think there's a case to be made

Ali mislim da možemo zaključiti

that we should spend at least as much time, if not more,

da bi trebali provoditi bar jednako vremena, ako ne i više,

valuing the premise of connecting ideas

vrednujući povezivanje ideja,

and not just protecting them.

a ne samo njihovu zaštitu.

And I'll leave you with this story,

Napustit ću vas sa jednom pričom u

which I think captures a lot of these values.

koju su uključene mnoge od ovih vrijednosti,

It's just a wonderful tale of innovation, and how it happens in unlikely ways.

i to je prekrasna priča o inovaciji

i kako se ona događa na neobične načine.

It's October of 1957,

Bio je listopad 1957.

and Sputnik has just launched.

i Sputnik je bio lansiran,

And we're in Laurel, Maryland,

i mi smo bili u Laurel Marylandu

at the Applied Physics Lab associated with Johns Hopkins University.

u laboratoriju za primijenjenu fiziku

udruženu sa Sveučilištem Johns Hopkins.

Ponedjeljak ujutro je

It's Monday morning,

and the news has just broken about this satellite

i upravo je izišla vijest o tom satelitu

koji kruži oko planeta.

that's now orbiting the planet.

And, of course, this is nerd heaven, right?

Naravno, to je raj za štrebere, zar ne?

There are all these physics geeks who are there,

Tu su svi ti štreberi fizike i svi misle

thinking, "Oh my gosh! This is incredible. I can't believe this has happened."

„ O moj Bože! Ovo je nevjerojatno. Ne mogu vjerovati da se to dogodilo.“

I dvojica njih,

And two of them, two twentysomething researchers at the APL,

dvadesetogodišnjaka istraživača iz laboratorija za fiziku,

are there at the cafeteria table,

za stolom u kantini

having an informal conversation with a bunch of their colleagues.

vode neformalan razgovor sa svojim kolegama.

And these two guys are named Guier and Weiffenbach.

Ta dvojica zovu se Guier i Weiffenbach.

They start talking, and one of them says,

Započnu razgovor i jedan od njih kaže,

"Hey, has anybody tried to listen for this thing?

" Hej, je li tko pokušao slušati tu stvar?

There's this, you know, man-made satellite up there in outer space

Tamo je satelit koji su ljudi napravili i koji se nalazi gore u svemiru

i očigledno emitira nekakvu vrstu signala.

that's obviously broadcasting some kind of signal.

Vjerojatno bismo ga mogli čuti ako podesimo uređaje.“

We could probably hear it, if we tune in."

So they ask around to a couple of their colleagues,

Pitali su uokolo nekoliko svojih kolega i

svi su rekli, „Ne, nisam se toga sjetio.

and everybody's like, "No, I hadn't thought of doing that.

Zanimljiva ideja.“

That's an interesting idea."

I ispostavilo se da je Weiffenbach stručnjak

And it turns out Weiffenbach is kind of an expert in microwave reception,

u primanju mikrovalova,

and he's got a little antenna set up with an amplifier in his office.

i da ima malu antenu sa

pojačivačem postavljenu u svom uredu.

So Guier and Weiffenbach go back to Weiffenbach's office,

I tako su Guier i Weiffenbach otišli do Weiffenbachovog ureda

and they start noodling around -- "hacking," as we might call it now.

i počeli mozgati – hakirati, kako bismo to mogli nazvati danas.

I nakon nekoliko sati uhvatili su signal,

And after a couple of hours, they start picking up the signal,

jer je ruski Sputnik

because the Soviets made Sputnik very easy to track;

bio lak za praćenje.

it was right at 20 MHz, so you could pick it up really easily,

Bio je na 20MHz i moglo ga se lako uhvatiti,

because they were afraid people would think it was a hoax, basically,

jer su se bojali da će ljudi misliti da je to prijevara.

Zato su ga napravili jednostavnog za naći.

so they made it really easy to find.

Njih su dvojica sjedili i slušali signal

So these guys are sitting there, listening to this signal,

i ljudi su počeli dolaziti u ured govoreći,

and people start coming into the office and saying,

„Wow, to je baš super. Mogu li čuti? Wow to je odlično."

"That's pretty cool. Can I hear?"

And before long, they think, "Jeez, this is kind of historic.

I ubrzo su pomislili „O Bože, ovo je povijesni trenutak.

We may be the first people in the United States listening to this.

Mi smo prvi ljudi u SAD-u koji ovo slušaju.

Trebali bismo to snimiti.“

We should record it."

So they bring in this big, clunky analog tape recorder

Donijeli su veliki i bučni analogni rekorder i

počeli snimati te male pištave signale.

and start recording these little bleep, bleeps.

And they start writing down the date stamp, time stamps

I počeli su zapisivati vremenske bilješke, bilješke

for each little bleep that they record.

svakog signala kojeg su snimili.

And then they start thinking,

I pomislili su „ Oh, primijetili smo

"Well, gosh, we're noticing small little frequency variations here.

male varijacije frekvencije ovdje.

We could probably calculate the speed that the satellite is traveling

Vjerojatno bismo mogli izračunati brzinu

kojom satelit putuje

if we do a little basic math here using the Doppler effect."

ako primijenimo malo osnovne matematike

koristeći Dopplerov učinak.

And they played around with it a little bit more

I još su se malo igrali s tim

i pričali sa nekoliko kolega

and talked to a couple of their colleagues who had other specialties.

stručnih u različitim područjima.

Rekli su, „ O Bože, znate,

And they said, "You know,

we could actually look at the slope of the Doppler effect

mislimo da bismo mogli pomoću tih rezultata Dopplerova učinka

to figure out the points at which the satellite is closest to our antenna

otkriti točku gdje je

satelit najbliži našoj anteni i

and the points at which it's furthest away.

točku gdje je najudaljeniji.

That's pretty cool."

To je poprilično super.“

Eventually, they get permission -- this is all a little side project

Naposljetku su dobili dozvolu –

bio je to mali sporedni projekt koji nije bio službeno dio opisa njihovog posla.

that hadn't been officially part of their job description --

they get permission to use the new UNIVAC computer

Dobili su dozvolu da koriste novo UNIVAC računalo

that takes up an entire room that they'd just gotten at the APL.

koje je zauzimalo cijelu prostoriju, a koje su tek bili dobili u laboratoriju za primijenjenu fiziku.

And they run some more of the numbers,

Obradili su još nekoliko brojeva i nakon tri-četiri tjedna

and at the end of about three or four weeks,

ispostavilo se da su izračunali točnu putanju

turns out they have mapped the exact trajectory

of this satellite around the Earth,

satelita oko Zemlje,

just from listening to this one little signal,

samo slušajući jedan mali signal

going off on this little side hunch that they'd been inspired to do

na koji su skrenuli pažnju prateći intuiciju

over lunch one morning.

za vrijeme ručka jednog jutra.

A couple weeks later, their boss, Frank McClure,

Nekoliko tjedana kasnije njihov šef, Frank McClure,

pulls them into the room and says,

pozvao ih je u ured i rekao

"Hey, you guys, I have to ask you something

„ Hej momci, moram vas pitati nešto

about that project you were working on.

vezano za projekt na kojem radite.

You've figured out an unknown location

Otkrili ste nepoznatu lokaciju

satelita koji kruži oko planeta

of a satellite orbiting the planet from a known location on the ground.

sa poznate lokacije na zemlji.

Možete li obrnuto?

Could you go the other way?

Could you figure out an unknown location on the ground

Možete li otkriti nepoznatu lokaciju na zemlji

ako znate lokaciju satelita?“

if you knew the location of the satellite?"

And they thought about it and they said,

Razmislili su o tome i rekli

"Well, I guess maybe you could. Let's run the numbers here."

„Pa valjda bismo mogli. Da vidimo što kažu brojevi.“

So they went back and thought about it

Otišli su i razmislili o tome.

and came back and said, "Actually, it'll be easier."

Kada su se vratili rekli su „Zapravo, bilo bi lakše.“

A on je rekao „Oh, to je odlično.

And he said, "Oh, that's great,

because, see, I have these new nuclear submarines"

Zato što gradim nove nuklearne

(Laughter)

podmornice.

"that I'm building.

And it's really hard to figure out how to get your missile

I poprilično je teško otkriti kako usmjeriti projektile

so that it will land right on top of Moscow

da se spuste na Moskvu,

if you don't know where the submarine is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

ako se ne znaju njihove lokacije u Tihom oceanu.

Stoga smo mislili, mogli bismo poslati mnogo satelita

So we're thinking we could throw up a bunch of satellites

and use it to track our submarines

i koristiti ih da pratimo naše podmornice

and figure out their location in the middle of the ocean.

i otkrijemo njihove lokacije usred oceana.

Možete li poraditi na tom problemu?“

Could you work on that problem?"

And that's how GPS was born.

I tako je GPS rođen.

30 godina kasnije,

Thirty years later,

Ronald Reagan, actually, opened it up and made it an open platform

Ronald Reagan zapravo je otvorio i učinio to otvorenim pitanjem

that anybody could build upon,

na temelju kojeg bilo tko može graditi i

and anybody could come along and build new technology

bilo tko može osmisliti i izgraditi novu tehnologiju

that would create and innovate on top of this open platform,

koja bi bila kreirana i inovirana

na temelju tog otvorenog pitanja,

left it open for anyone to do pretty much anything they wanted with it.

ostavio ga je otvorenim

za bilo koga da učini što god hoće.

And now, I guarantee you, certainly half of this room, if not more,

I sada, jamčim vam

da sigurno polovina ove prostorije, ako ne i više,

ima uređaj u svojim džepova koji trenutno

has a device sitting in their pocket right now

komunicira sa jednim od onih satelita iz svemira.

that is talking to one of these satellites in outer space.

I kladim se da je jedan od vas, ako ne i više,

And I bet you one of you, if not more,

has used said device and said satellite system

koristio taj uređaj i naredio sustavu satelita

to locate a nearby coffeehouse somewhere in the last --

da locira najbliži kafić prethodnih –

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

in the last day or last week, right?

prethodnih dana ili prošli tjedan. Zar ne?

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

I to je, mislim,

And that, I think,

is a great case study, a great lesson

odlično ispitivanje slučaja, odlična lekcija,

in the power -- the marvelous, unplanned, emergent, unpredictable power --

o snazi, o čudesnoj i neplaniranoj,

nepredvidivoj moći

of open innovative systems.

otvorenog inovativnog sustava.

When you build them right,

Kada ih ispravno izgradite, usmjerit će se u potpuno nove pravce

they will be led to completely new directions

o kojima njihov stvoritelj nije ni sanjao.

the creators never even dreamed of.

Imali smo te momke

I mean, here you have these guys

who basically thought they were just following this hunch,

koji su jednostavno mislili da samo prate svoju intuiciju,

tu malu strast koju su razvili,

this little passion that had developed,

onda su mislili da se bore u Hladnom ratu,

then they thought they were fighting the Cold War,

a na kraju je ispalo da pomažu nekome da

and then, it turns out, they're just helping somebody find a soy latte.

pronađe kavu sa sojinim mlijekom.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

That is how innovation happens.

Tako se događaju inovacije.

Chance favors the connected mind.

Sreća je sklonija povezanim umovima.

Thank you very much.

Puno hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)