How do you know whom to trust? - Ram Neta

Unajuaje nani wa kumuamini?

Transcriber: Andrea McDonough Reviewer: Bedirhan Cinar

Translator: Nelson Simfukwe Reviewer: Joachim Mangilima

You believe that the Sun is much larger than the Earth,

Unaamini kwamba jua ni kubwa kuliko dunia,

that the Earth is a roughly spherical planet

kwamba dunia duara lisilo dufu

that rotates on its axis every 24 hours

inajizungusha katika mhimili kila masaa 24

and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days.

na hulizunguka jua mara moja kwa siku 365

You believe that you were born on a particular date,

Unaamini kwamba ulizaliwa katika tarehe fulani,

that you were born to two human parents

ulizaliwa na wazazi wawili ambao ni binadamu

and that each of your human parents

na kila mmoja ya wazazi wako

was born on an earlier date.

alizaliwa tarehe kabla ya yako.

You believe that other human beings

Unaamini kwamba bindamu wengine

have thoughts and feelings like you do

wana mawazo na hisia kama wewe

and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots.

na hujazungukwa na roboti watu.

You believe all of these things and many more,

Unaamini vitu hivi na vingine vingi,

not on the basis of direct observation,

sio katika kuona mwenyewe kwa uchunguzi wako

which can't, by itself, tell you very much

ambapo hauwezi kukwambia mengi

about the relative size and motion

kuhusu ukubwa na mwendo

of the Sun and the Earth,

wa jua na dunia,

or about your own family history,

au kuhusu historia ya familia yako,

or about what goes on in the minds of other humans.

au kinachoendelea katika vichwa vya binadamu wengine.

Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on

Badala,hizi imani zinategemea zaidi

what you've been told.

na ambacho umeambiwa.

Without spoken and written testimonies,

Bila shuhuda za kuongelewa wala kuandikwa,

human beings could not pass on knowledge

binadamu asingehamisha maarifa

from one person to another,

kutoka mtu mmoja kwenda kwa mwingine,

let alone from one generation to another.

achia mbali kutoka kizazi kimoja kwenda kingine.

We would know much, much less

Tungejua machache,machache sana

about the world around us.

kuhusu dunia inayotuzunguka.

So learning about a topic

Kwa hiyo kuhusu mada

by asking an expert on that topic,

kwa kumuuliza mtaalamu katika hiyo mada,

or appealing to authority,

au kuwaona mamlaka,

helps us gain knowledge,

kutusaidia kupata maarifa,

but, it doesn't always.

lakini,haisaidii mara zote.

Even the most highly respected authorities

Hata mamlaka za juu zinazoheshimiwa

can turn out to be wrong.

zinaweza kutokuwa sahihi.

Occasionally this happens

Mara kadhaa hutokea

because a highly respected authority is dishonest

kwa sababu mamlaka ya juu inayoheshimika ni danganyifu

and claims to know something

na hudai inajua kitu

that she or he really doesn't know.

ambacho mtu hakijui kabisa.

Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake.

Muda mwingine hutokea kwa sababu wanafanya makosa.

They think they know when they don't know.

Wanadhani wanajua wakati hawajui.

For example, a number of respected economists

Kwa mfano,idadi ya wanauchumi wanaoheshimika

did not expect the financial collapse of 2008.

hawakutegemei mporomoko wa kifedha wa mwaka 2008

They turned out to be wrong.

Walikuja kuwa sio sahihi.

Maybe they were wrong

Labda walikuwa sio sahihi

because they were overlooking some important evidence.

kwa sababu walikuwa wanaangalia sana ushahidi muhimu.

Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting

Labda hawakuwa sahihi kwa sababu walikuwa wanatafsiri visivyo

some of the evidence they had noticed.

baadhi ya ukweli waliogundua.

Or maybe they were wrong

au hawakuwa sahihi

simply because they were reasoning carelessly

kwa sababu wanafikiri pasipo uangalifu wa makini

from the total body of their evidence.

kutoka katika ushahidi mzima.

But whatever the reason,

Lakini kwa sababu yoyote

they turned out to be wrong

walitokea kukosea

and many people who trusted their authority

na watu wengi walioamini mamlaka yao

ended up losing lots of money,

waliishia kupoteza hela nyingi,

losing lots of other people's money,

kupoteza hela nyingi za watu wengine,

on account of that misplaced trust.

katika akaunti iliyopoteza uaminifu.

So while appealing to authority

Kwa hiyo kuona mamlaka

can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge,

muda mwingine inatupa maarifa muhimu,

it also can sometimes be the cause

pia inaweza sababisha

of monumental errors.

matatizo makubwa

It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish

Ni muhimu sisi sote kuweza kutofautisha

those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority

zile shughuli tunaweza tukaiamini mamlaka

from those occasions on which we can't.

na zile ambazo hatuwezi kuiamini mamlaka

But how do we do that?

Lakini tunafanya vipi?

In order to do that,

Kwa ajili ya kufanya hivyo,

nothing is more useful than

hakuna cha msingi zaidi

an authority's track record on a particular topic.

mamalaka kufatilia rekodi ya mada husika.

If someone turns out to perform well

Kama inatokea mtu anafanya vizuri

in a given situation much of the time,

katika kitu fulani mara nyingi,

then it's likely that he or she will continue

ni wazi kwamba mtu huyo ataendelea

to perform well in that same situation,

kufanya vizuri katika hicho kitu,

at least in the near term.

angalau kwa kiasi.

And this generalization holds true

Na hili jumuisho lina ukweli

of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else.

kwa ushahidi wa mamlaka zaidi ya kitu kingine chochote.

If someone can consistently pick winners

Kama mtu anaweza chagua mshindi ki uhakika

in both politics and baseball,

katika siasa na baseball,

then we should probably trust him or her

kwa hiyo tunaweza kumuamini yeye

to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball,

kuchagua washindi katika siasa au baseball,

though maybe not in other things

ingawa inawezekana isiwe katika vitu vingine

where his or her track record may be less stellar.

ambapo rekodi yake yote inaweza isiwe nzuri sana.

If other forecasters have a poorer track record

Kama watabiri wa hali ya hewa wana kumbukumbu isiyo nzuri

on those same two topics,

katika mada hizo mbili sawa,

then we shouldn't trust them as much.

basi hatutakiwi kuwaamini sana.

So whenever you're considering whether

kwa muda wowote unapoangalia

to trust the testimony of some authority,

kuamini ushuhuda wa mamlaka fulani,

the first question to ask yourself is,

swali la kwanza kujiauliza ni,

"What's their track record on this topic?"

Ipi ni rekodi yao katika hii mada?

And notice that you can apply

Na tambua unaweza tumia

the very same lesson to yourself.

somo hilohilo kwa nafsi yako.

Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right,

Uzoefu wako unakuambia umekutana na bwana sawa,

but what sort of track record do your instincts have

lakini ni rekodi ipi uzoefu wako unayo

on topics like this one?

katika mada kama hii?

Have your instincts proven themselves

Je uzoefu wako umejidhihirisha wenyewe

to be worthy of your trust?

kuwa wa kuaminika?

Just as we judge other people's testimony

Kama tunavyohukumu shuhuda za wengine

by their track record,

kwa rekodi zao,

so, too, we can judge our own instincts

pia tunaweza kuhukumu maarifa yetu

by their track record.

kwa rekodi zao.

And this brings us one step closer

Na hii inatupeleka hatua moja karibu

to an objective view of ourselves

katika uono wa majukumu yetu

and our relation to the world around us.

na uhusiano wetu na dunia inayotuzunguka.