How do you know whom to trust? - Ram Neta

Com sabem en qui confiar? - Ram Neta

Transcriber: Andrea McDonough Reviewer: Bedirhan Cinar

Translator: Òscar Aznar Alemany Reviewer: Eva Garcia Pinos

You believe that the Sun is much larger than the Earth,

Et creus que el Sol és molt més gran que la Terra,

that the Earth is a roughly spherical planet

que la Terra és un planeta esfèric

that rotates on its axis every 24 hours

que gira sobre el seu eix cada 24 hores

and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days.

i que fa la volta al Sol cada 365 dies.

You believe that you were born on a particular date,

Et creus que vas néixer un dia en concret,

that you were born to two human parents

que tens dos pares humans

and that each of your human parents

i que aquests pares humans

was born on an earlier date.

van néixer un dia en concret.

You believe that other human beings

Creus que els altres humans

have thoughts and feelings like you do

tenen pensaments i sentiments com tu

and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots.

i que no et rodegen robots humanoides.

You believe all of these things and many more,

Et creus tot això i moltes altres coses,

not on the basis of direct observation,

no basant-te en l'observació directa,

which can't, by itself, tell you very much

que per si sola no et pot dir gaire

about the relative size and motion

sobre el moviment i la mida

of the Sun and the Earth,

del Sol i de la Terra

or about your own family history,

o sobre la història de la teva família

or about what goes on in the minds of other humans.

o sobre què passa en la ment d'altres humans.

Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on

Et creus tot això basant-te més que res

what you've been told.

en el que t'han dit.

Without spoken and written testimonies,

Sense testimonis orals o escrits

human beings could not pass on knowledge

no es podria transmetre el coneixement

from one person to another,

d'una persona a una altra

let alone from one generation to another.

i encara menys entre generacions.

We would know much, much less

Sabríem molt molt menys

about the world around us.

del món que ens envolta.

So learning about a topic

Aprendre sobre un tema

by asking an expert on that topic,

preguntant a un expert

or appealing to authority,

o recorrent a una autoritat

helps us gain knowledge,

amplia el nostre coneixement,

but, it doesn't always.

però no sempre.

Even the most highly respected authorities

Fins i tot les autoritats més respectades es poden equivocar.

can turn out to be wrong.

Occasionally this happens

De vegades això passa

because a highly respected authority is dishonest

perquè una autoritat respectada menteix

and claims to know something

i diu que sap una cosa

that she or he really doesn't know.

que en realitat no sap.

Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake.

De vegades passa només perquè s'equivoquen.

They think they know when they don't know.

Creuen que ho saben, però no.

For example, a number of respected economists

Per exemple, molts economistes respectats

did not expect the financial collapse of 2008.

no s'esperaven la crisi econòmica el 2008.

They turned out to be wrong.

Es van equivocar.

Maybe they were wrong

Potser es van equivocar

because they were overlooking some important evidence.

perquè van passar per alt dades importants.

Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting

Potser és que van malinterpretar

some of the evidence they had noticed.

algunes dades que havien vist.

Or maybe they were wrong

O potser es van equivocar perquè decidien sense tenir en compte

simply because they were reasoning carelessly

from the total body of their evidence.

tot el volum de dades.

But whatever the reason,

Fos pel que fos,

they turned out to be wrong

es van equivocar

and many people who trusted their authority

i molta gent que hi va confiar

ended up losing lots of money,

va perdre un munt de diners,

losing lots of other people's money,

un munt de diners d'altra gent,

on account of that misplaced trust.

per haver confiat en qui no tocava.

So while appealing to authority

Recórrer a una autoritat

can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge,

ens pot proporcionar coneixement valuós,

it also can sometimes be the cause

però també pot, de vegades,

of monumental errors.

portar a errors monumentals.

It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish

És important que sapiguem distingir

those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority

quan podem confiar en una autoritat amb seguretat

from those occasions on which we can't.

i quan no ho podem fer.

But how do we do that?

Però com se sap?

In order to do that,

Per saber-ho,

nothing is more useful than

el més útil és

an authority's track record on a particular topic.

analitzar l'historial d'una autoritat en un tema.

If someone turns out to perform well

Si algú pren bones decisions

in a given situation much of the time,

en un tema la major part del temps,

then it's likely that he or she will continue

és probable que continuï

to perform well in that same situation,

prenent bones decisions en aquest tema,

at least in the near term.

com a mínim a curt termini.

And this generalization holds true

I aquesta generalització serveix

of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else.

per al criteri de les autoritats i per a qualsevol altra cosa.

If someone can consistently pick winners

Si algú sempre escull triomfadors

in both politics and baseball,

en política i beisbol,

then we should probably trust him or her

hauríem de poder confiar-hi

to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball,

per seguir escollint triomfadors en política i beisbol,

though maybe not in other things

però potser no en altres camps en què tingui un historial menys reeixit.

where his or her track record may be less stellar.

If other forecasters have a poorer track record

Si qui fa una predicció té un historial pobre

on those same two topics,

en aquests temes,

then we shouldn't trust them as much.

no hi hauríem de confiar tant.

So whenever you're considering whether

Sempre que us pregunteu

to trust the testimony of some authority,

si podeu confiar en una autoritat,

the first question to ask yourself is,

el primer que us heu de preguntar és:

"What's their track record on this topic?"

"Quin historial té en aquest tema?"

And notice that you can apply

I us podeu aplicar

the very same lesson to yourself.

aquest sistema a vosaltres mateixos.

Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right,

L'instint us diu que heu trobat la persona de la vostra vida,

but what sort of track record do your instincts have

però quin historial tenen els vostres instints

on topics like this one?

en aquest tema?

Have your instincts proven themselves

Els vostres instints han demostrat

to be worthy of your trust?

ser de confiança?

Just as we judge other people's testimony

De la manera que jutgem el criteri d'altres

by their track record,

pel seu historial,

so, too, we can judge our own instincts

també podem jutjar els nostres instints

by their track record.

pel seu historial.

And this brings us one step closer

I això ens acosta un pas més

to an objective view of ourselves

a una visió objectiva de nosaltres

and our relation to the world around us.

i de la nostra relació amb el món.