How do you know whom to trust? - Ram Neta

Kako znate kome vjerovati? - Ram Neta

Transcriber: Andrea McDonough Reviewer: Bedirhan Cinar

Prevoditelj: Diana Žunić Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

You believe that the Sun is much larger than the Earth,

Vjerujete da je Sunce mnogo veće od Zemlje,

that the Earth is a roughly spherical planet

da je Zemlja okruglog oblika,

that rotates on its axis every 24 hours

da se okrene oko svoje osi u roku 24 sata

and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days.

te da obiđe Sunce jedanput svakih 365 dana.

You believe that you were born on a particular date,

Vjerujete u to da ste rođeni na određeni datum,

that you were born to two human parents

da su dvoje ljudi vaši roditelji

and that each of your human parents

te da su vaša oba roditelja

was born on an earlier date.

rođena prije vas.

You believe that other human beings

Vjerujete da ostali ljudi

have thoughts and feelings like you do

imaju misli i osjećaje baš kao i vi

and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots.

i da niste okruženi humanoidnim robotima.

You believe all of these things and many more,

Vjerujete u sve ove stvari i u još mnoge druge

not on the basis of direct observation,

i ne na temelju direktne observacije

which can't, by itself, tell you very much

koja vam sama po sebi može mnogo toga reći

about the relative size and motion

o relativnoj veličini i kretnjama

of the Sun and the Earth,

Sunca i Zemlje

or about your own family history,

ili o povijesti vaše obitelji

or about what goes on in the minds of other humans.

ili o tome što se događa u ljudskim umovima.

Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on

Ali vaša su vjerovanja većinom bazirana na

what you've been told.

tome što vam je rečeno.

Without spoken and written testimonies,

Bez pisanih ili usmenih dokaza

human beings could not pass on knowledge

ljudska bića ne mogu prenijeti znanje

from one person to another,

od jedne osobe do druge,

let alone from one generation to another.

a kamo li s jedne generacije na drugu.

We would know much, much less

Bez toga znali bismo mnogo, mnogo manje

about the world around us.

o svijetu koji nas okružuje.

So learning about a topic

Učenje o temema

by asking an expert on that topic,

na način da pitamo stručnjaka za određeno područje

or appealing to authority,

ili nekoga koga smatramo autoritetom

helps us gain knowledge,

pomaže nam usvojiti znanje,

but, it doesn't always.

ali ne uvijek.

Even the most highly respected authorities

Čak i najcjenjeniji autoriteti

can turn out to be wrong.

mogu biti u krivu.

Occasionally this happens

S vremena na vrijeme to se dogodi

because a highly respected authority is dishonest

jer cijenjeni autoriteti mogu biti neiskreni

and claims to know something

i tvrditi da znaju nešto

that she or he really doesn't know.

što ubiti i ne znaju.

Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake.

Nekad se pak to dogodi jer su jednostavno pogriješili.

They think they know when they don't know.

Misle da znaju kad ubiti ne znaju.

For example, a number of respected economists

Na primjer, velik broj cijenjenih ekonomista

did not expect the financial collapse of 2008.

nije očekivao financijski kolaps 2008. godine.

They turned out to be wrong.

Ispalo je da su u krivu.

Maybe they were wrong

Možda su pogriješili

because they were overlooking some important evidence.

jer su propustili obratiti pozornost na neke bitne dokaze.

Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting

Možda su bili u krivu jer su krivo interpretirali

some of the evidence they had noticed.

neke dokaze koje jesu uočili.

Or maybe they were wrong

Ili su jednostavno bili u krivu

simply because they were reasoning carelessly

zato što nisu razmišljali dovoljno precizno

from the total body of their evidence.

o kompletnom predmetu.

But whatever the reason,

Bez obzira na razlog,

they turned out to be wrong

bili su u krivu

and many people who trusted their authority

i mnogo ljudi koje im je vjerovalo

ended up losing lots of money,

izgubilo je mnogo svojeg novca

losing lots of other people's money,

i novca drugih ljudi,

on account of that misplaced trust.

zbog toga što su imali povjerenje u krive ljude.

So while appealing to authority

Zato polaganje vjere u autoritete

can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge,

nam ponekad može donjeti zlata vrijedno znanje,

it also can sometimes be the cause

ali isto tako i može prouzročiti

of monumental errors.

monumentalne pogreške.

It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish

Bitno je da znamo razlikovati

those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority

kada zaista možemo zasigurno vjerovati autoritetima

from those occasions on which we can't.

a kada ne možemo.

But how do we do that?

Ali kako to postići?

In order to do that,

Kako bismo to postigli,

nothing is more useful than

ništa nam nije tako korisno kao

an authority's track record on a particular topic.

prijašnja iskustva s mišljenjima autoriteta o određenim temama.

If someone turns out to perform well

Ako ispadne da je netko uradio dobro

in a given situation much of the time,

više puta u nekoj situaciji

then it's likely that he or she will continue

tada je veća vjerojatnost da će i nastaviti

to perform well in that same situation,

s dobrim postupcima u toj situaciji,

at least in the near term.

barem u skorije vrijeme.

And this generalization holds true

I ova generalizacija je točna

of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else.

ne samo po pitanju autoriteta već i za većinu drugih stvari.

If someone can consistently pick winners

Ako netko može kontinuirano birati pobjednike

in both politics and baseball,

i u politici i u bejzbolu,

then we should probably trust him or her

onda ćemo vjerovatno više vjerovati njoj ili njemu

to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball,

da će nastaviti birati pobjednike u oboje politici i bejzbolu,

though maybe not in other things

iako možda ne i u drugim stvarima

where his or her track record may be less stellar.

u kojima njihova reputacija možda i nije tako bajna.

If other forecasters have a poorer track record

Ako ostali prognostičari imaju lošiju reputaciju

on those same two topics,

na te dvije teme,

then we shouldn't trust them as much.

tada ne bismo trebali im toliko vjerovati.

So whenever you're considering whether

Kada god razmišljate o prognozi vremena

to trust the testimony of some authority,

i vjerujete autoritetima,

the first question to ask yourself is,

prvo pitanje koje si morate postaviti je

"What's their track record on this topic?"

"Koliko su njihove prijašnje prognoze bile točne?"

And notice that you can apply

i primjetite da možete primijeniti

the very same lesson to yourself.

tu istu lekciju sami na sebe.

Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right,

Vaši vam instinkti govore da ste upoznali onog pravog,

but what sort of track record do your instincts have

ali koliko je vaš instinkt bio točan u prošlosti

on topics like this one?

po pitanju ovakve teme?

Have your instincts proven themselves

Jesu li se vaši instinkti dokazali

to be worthy of your trust?

kao vjerodostojni?

Just as we judge other people's testimony

Baš kao što sudimo tuđe tvrdnje

by their track record,

prema njihovoj povijesti

so, too, we can judge our own instincts

isto tako možemo suditi i naš vlastiti instinkt

by their track record.

prema njegovoj povijesti.

And this brings us one step closer

Na ovaj način smo već jedan korak bliže

to an objective view of ourselves

objektivnom gledanju sebe

and our relation to the world around us.

i našeg odnosa prema svijetu oko nas.