How do you know whom to trust? - Ram Neta

你怎么知道应该相信谁？- Ram Neta

Transcriber: Andrea McDonough Reviewer: Bedirhan Cinar

翻译人员: Siyun Zhou 校对人员: Will Jay

You believe that the Sun is much larger than the Earth,

你相信太阳要比地球大很多

that the Earth is a roughly spherical planet

地球是一个接近于球体的星球

that rotates on its axis every 24 hours

地球每24小时自转一周

and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days.

每365天绕着太阳转一周

You believe that you were born on a particular date,

你相信你是在某个特定的时间出生的

that you were born to two human parents

你有父亲和母亲

and that each of your human parents

并且你还相信

was born on an earlier date.

你的父母都比你更早出生

You believe that other human beings

你相信其他的人类

have thoughts and feelings like you do

也像你一样有思想和感觉

and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots.

你不是被类似于人类的机器人所环绕

You believe all of these things and many more,

你相信所有这些以及更多的事情

not on the basis of direct observation,

虽然你没有亲眼所见

which can't, by itself, tell you very much

因为，观察事物的本身并不能告诉你很多

about the relative size and motion

关于家族大小

of the Sun and the Earth,

和太阳与地球的活动

or about your own family history,

或者你的家族历史

or about what goes on in the minds of other humans.

或是别人的大脑里在想什么

Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on

相反，大部分的这些知识

what you've been told.

都是别人告诉你的

Without spoken and written testimonies,

没有笔头或者口头证据

human beings could not pass on knowledge

人类不能在人和人之间

from one person to another,

传递知识

let alone from one generation to another.

更不必说一代和一代之间了

We would know much, much less

我们会知道得更少

about the world around us.

身边的世界

So learning about a topic

所以了解一个专题

by asking an expert on that topic,

要请教某个领域的专家

or appealing to authority,

或者诉讼权威

helps us gain knowledge,

帮助我们获得知识

but, it doesn't always.

但是，它不总是适用

Even the most highly respected authorities

甚至最受尊敬的权威

can turn out to be wrong.

也能出现错失

Occasionally this happens

通常这发生

because a highly respected authority is dishonest

是因为一个 高度受尊敬的权威不诚实

and claims to know something

声称懂得某件事物

that she or he really doesn't know.

但他（她）其实并不真的了解

Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake.

有时它发生只是因为 他们犯了一个错误

They think they know when they don't know.

当他们并不懂时，他们以为自己懂

For example, a number of respected economists

例如，一群受尊敬的经济学家

did not expect the financial collapse of 2008.

没有预期到 2008 年财务危机

They turned out to be wrong.

他们被验明是错的

Maybe they were wrong

或者他们的错误

because they were overlooking some important evidence.

是因为看漏重要迹象

Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting

或者他们的错误是因为曲解了

some of the evidence they had noticed.

某些已注意到的迹象

Or maybe they were wrong

或者他们的错误

simply because they were reasoning carelessly

简单地因为他们粗心地

from the total body of their evidence.

从迹象总体归结原因

But whatever the reason,

但不论原因如何

they turned out to be wrong

他们被验明是错误的

and many people who trusted their authority

和其他很多相信权威的人一样

ended up losing lots of money,

最终失去了大量的金钱

losing lots of other people's money,

失去了别人大量的金钱

on account of that misplaced trust.

因为误信

So while appealing to authority

所以诉诸权威

can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge,

有时能够为我们提供有价值的知识

it also can sometimes be the cause

它有时也能导致

of monumental errors.

极大的过错

It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish

对于我们所有人很重要的是

those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority

能够区分那些安全合理 可信的权威的声明

from those occasions on which we can't.

和那些我们不能信任的声明

But how do we do that?

但怎么做到呢？

In order to do that,

要那样做

nothing is more useful than

没有任何事物比

an authority's track record on a particular topic.

一个权威在某个特殊领域的 历史数据更有用

If someone turns out to perform well

如果某人在某个特定条件

in a given situation much of the time,

很长时间表现良好

then it's likely that he or she will continue

那么很可能他（她）会继续

to perform well in that same situation,

在同样条件下表现良好

at least in the near term.

至少在最近的期间

And this generalization holds true

然后这个观点在

of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else.

权威声明和其他方面都适用

If someone can consistently pick winners

假如某人能够持续选中

in both politics and baseball,

政治和棒球的胜者

then we should probably trust him or her

我们会更可能相信他（她）

to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball,

会继续选中政治或棒球赢家

though maybe not in other things

虽然可能其他事情并不这样

where his or her track record may be less stellar.

因为他或她的历史数据可能不出众

If other forecasters have a poorer track record

假如其他预言家有更差的历史数据

on those same two topics,

在同样两个方面

then we shouldn't trust them as much.

那么我们不应该那么相信他们

So whenever you're considering whether

所以不论你考虑

to trust the testimony of some authority,

是否相信某些权威声明

the first question to ask yourself is,

你第一个要问自己的问题是

"What's their track record on this topic?"

“他们在那个方面的历史数据如何？”

And notice that you can apply

然后意识到你可以

the very same lesson to yourself.

对自己使用同样方法

Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right,

你的直觉告诉你 你刚碰到了真命天子

but what sort of track record do your instincts have

但是你的直觉在哪方面的历史数据

on topics like this one?

与这个主题相似？

Have your instincts proven themselves

你的直觉是否曾证明

to be worthy of your trust?

值得你信任？

Just as we judge other people's testimony

就像我们鉴定其他人的声明

by their track record,

通过他们的历史数据

so, too, we can judge our own instincts

所以，我们也能鉴定自己的直觉

by their track record.

通过它们的历史数据

And this brings us one step closer

这样使我们更近一步

to an objective view of ourselves

客观看待自我

and our relation to the world around us.

和我们身边世界的联系