How do you know whom to trust? - Ram Neta

Transcriber: Andrea McDonough Reviewer: Bedirhan Cinar

Translator: Hafizh Alfarisi Reviewer: Made Pramana

You believe that the Sun is much larger than the Earth,

Kau percaya bahwa matahari lebih besar dari bumi.

that the Earth is a roughly spherical planet

Bumi itu planet yang berbentuk bundar, yang berputar di porosnya tiap 24 jam

that rotates on its axis every 24 hours

and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days.

dan mengelilingi matahari sekali setiap 365 hari.

You believe that you were born on a particular date,

Kau percaya dirimu lahir pada tanggal tertentu,

that you were born to two human parents

kau lahir dari dua orang tua manusia,

and that each of your human parents

dan masing-masing orang tua manusiamu lahir lebih awal.

was born on an earlier date.

You believe that other human beings

Kau percaya manusia lain punya pikiran dan perasaan sepertimu

have thoughts and feelings like you do

and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots.

dan kau tidak dikelilingi robot manusia.

You believe all of these things and many more,

Kau percaya semua hal ini dan banyak hal lainnya,

not on the basis of direct observation,

bukan didasarkan pengamatan langsung,

which can't, by itself, tell you very much

yang ini sendiri tak bisa banyak menjelaskan

about the relative size and motion

ukuran dan pergerakan relatif dari matahari dan bumi,

of the Sun and the Earth,

or about your own family history,

riwayat keluargamu, atau isi pikiran manusia lain.

or about what goes on in the minds of other humans.

Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on

Sebaliknya, kepercayaan ini sering didasarkan

what you've been told.

dari apa yang dijelaskan kepadamu.

Without spoken and written testimonies,

Tanpa pernyataan lisan dan tertulis, manusia tidak bisa menurunkan ilmu

human beings could not pass on knowledge

from one person to another,

dari satu orang ke yang lain, apalagi dari satu generasi ke yang lain.

let alone from one generation to another.

We would know much, much less

Kita cuma akan tahu sedikit tentang dunia sekitar kita.

about the world around us.

So learning about a topic

Mempelajari topik dengan menanyakan ahlinya

by asking an expert on that topic,

or appealing to authority,

atau klaim orang berwenang, membantu kita menambah ilmu.

helps us gain knowledge,

but, it doesn't always.

Namun, tak selalu begitu.

Even the most highly respected authorities

Bahkan, orang paling berwenang bisa saja salah.

can turn out to be wrong.

Occasionally this happens

Kadang ini terjadi karena orang yang paling berwenang tidak jujur

because a highly respected authority is dishonest

and claims to know something

dan mengaku tahu sesuatu yang sebenarnya tak diketahuinya.

that she or he really doesn't know.

Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake.

Kadang ini terjadi karena mereka keliru.

They think they know when they don't know.

Mereka pikir tahu saat sebenarnya tak tahu.

For example, a number of respected economists

Misalnya, beberapa ahli ekonomi terpandang

did not expect the financial collapse of 2008.

tidak menduga krisis finansial pada 2008.

They turned out to be wrong.

Mereka ternyata salah.

Maybe they were wrong

Mungkin mereka salah karena tak menyadari beberapa bukti penting.

because they were overlooking some important evidence.

Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting

Mungkin mereka salah karena salah mengartikan

some of the evidence they had noticed.

beberapa bukti yang mereka sadari.

Or maybe they were wrong

Atau mungkin mereka salah hanya karena sembarang menyimpulkan

simply because they were reasoning carelessly

from the total body of their evidence.

dari keseluruhan bukti mereka.

But whatever the reason,

Namun, apa pun alasannya, mereka tetap salah.

they turned out to be wrong

and many people who trusted their authority

Dan banyak yang memercayai wewenang mereka

ended up losing lots of money,

berakhir kehilangan banyak uang, kehilangan banyak uang orang lain,

losing lots of other people's money,

on account of that misplaced trust.

akibat kepercayaan yang salah tempat.

So while appealing to authority

Klaim orang berwenang kadang bisa memberi kita ilmu berharga,

can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge,

it also can sometimes be the cause

tapi kadang juga bisa menyebabkan kesalahan besar.

of monumental errors.

It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish

Penting bagi kita semua untuk bisa membedakan

those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority

saat kita bisa dengan aman dan beralasan memercayai orang berwenang

from those occasions on which we can't.

dengan saat kita tak bisa melakukannya.

But how do we do that?

Tapi bagaimana caranya?

In order to do that,

Untuk melakukannya, tak ada yang lebih penting dari

nothing is more useful than

an authority's track record on a particular topic.

rekam jejak orang berwenang dalam topik tertentu.

If someone turns out to perform well

Jika dia ternyata punya kinerja baik, dalam hal ini sering melakukannya,

in a given situation much of the time,

then it's likely that he or she will continue

kemungkinan dia akan terus punya kinerja baik dalam mengerjakannya.

to perform well in that same situation,

at least in the near term.

Setidaknya dalam jangka pendek.

And this generalization holds true

Penyamarataan ini berlaku

of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else.

pada pernyataan orang berwenang, begitu juga hal lainnya.

If someone can consistently pick winners

Jika seseorang bisa terus menebak pemenang dalam politik dan bisbol,

in both politics and baseball,

then we should probably trust him or her

kita mungkin bisa memercayainya untuk menebak pemenang politik atau bisbol,

to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball,

though maybe not in other things

meski mungkin tidak untuk hal lain di mana rekam jejaknya kurang baik.

where his or her track record may be less stellar.

If other forecasters have a poorer track record

Jika ahli prediksi lain punya rekam jejak buruk di dua topik tersebut,

on those same two topics,

then we shouldn't trust them as much.

kita tidak harus memercayainya juga.

So whenever you're considering whether

Kapan pun kau mempertimbangkan untuk percaya pernyataan orang berwenang,

to trust the testimony of some authority,

the first question to ask yourself is,

hal pertama yang kau tanyakan adalah,

"What's their track record on this topic?"

“Bagaimana rekam jejak mereka dalam topik ini?”

And notice that you can apply

Perhatikan pula jika kau bisa menerapkan pelajaran yang sama pada dirimu.

the very same lesson to yourself.

Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right,

Intuisimu mengatakan kau telah menemukan pasangan tepat,

but what sort of track record do your instincts have

tapi apa rekam jejak intuisimu dalam topik ini?

on topics like this one?

Have your instincts proven themselves

Pernahkan nalurimu terbukti bagus untuk bisa kau percayai?

to be worthy of your trust?

Just as we judge other people's testimony

Sama halnya menilai pernyataan orang lain dari rekam jejak mereka,

by their track record,

so, too, we can judge our own instincts

kita pun dapat menilai intuisi kita sesuai rekam jejaknya.

by their track record.

Hal ini mendekatkan kita pada pandangan objektif akan diri kita

And this brings us one step closer

to an objective view of ourselves

and our relation to the world around us.

dan hubungan kita pada dunia di sekitar kita.