How do you know whom to trust? - Ram Neta

Kako da znate kome da verujete? - Ram Neta

Transcriber: Andrea McDonough Reviewer: Bedirhan Cinar

Prevodilac: Miloš Milosavljević Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

You believe that the Sun is much larger than the Earth,

Verujete da je Sunce mnogo veće od Zemlje,

that the Earth is a roughly spherical planet

da je Zemlja planeta otprilike sferičnog oblika

that rotates on its axis every 24 hours

koja svaka 24 časa rotira oko svoje ose

and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days.

i obiđe oko Sunca jednom u svakih 365 dana.

You believe that you were born on a particular date,

Verujete da ste rođeni određenog datuma,

that you were born to two human parents

da imate dva ljudska roditelja

and that each of your human parents

i da je svaki od vaših ljudskih roditelja

was born on an earlier date.

rođen nekog ranijeg datuma.

You believe that other human beings

Verujete da druga ljudska bića

have thoughts and feelings like you do

imaju misli i osećanja kao vi

and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots.

i da niste okruženi humanoidnim robotima.

You believe all of these things and many more,

Verujete u sve ove stvari i u mnoge druge,

not on the basis of direct observation,

ne na bazi direktnog posmatranja,

which can't, by itself, tell you very much

koje vam ne može, samo po sebi, reći mnogo

about the relative size and motion

o relativnoj veličini i kretanju

of the Sun and the Earth,

Sunca i Zemlje

or about your own family history,

ili o vašoj porodičnoj istoriji

or about what goes on in the minds of other humans.

ili o tome šta se dešava u mislima drugih ljudi.

Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on

Umesto toga, ova verovanja su uglavnom zasnovana

what you've been told.

na onome što vam je neko rekao.

Without spoken and written testimonies,

Bez usmenih i pismenih svedočenja,

human beings could not pass on knowledge

ljudska bića ne bi mogla da prenose znanje

from one person to another,

s jedne osobe na drugu,

let alone from one generation to another.

a kamoli sa jedne generacije na drugu.

We would know much, much less

Znali bismo mnogo, mnogo manje

about the world around us.

o svetu oko nas.

So learning about a topic

Tako da učenje o nekoj temi

by asking an expert on that topic,

tako što ćemo pitati stručnjaka za tu temu

or appealing to authority,

ili obratiti se autoritetu,

helps us gain knowledge,

omogućava nam da steknemo znanje,

but, it doesn't always.

ali, ne uvek.

Even the most highly respected authorities

Čak i najpoštovaniji autoriteti

can turn out to be wrong.

mogu da pogreše.

Occasionally this happens

Povremeno se ovo dešava

because a highly respected authority is dishonest

zato što je visoko poštovani autoritet neiskren

and claims to know something

i tvrdi da zna nešto

that she or he really doesn't know.

što ona ili on, u stvari, ne zna.

Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake.

Ponekad se to desi samo zato što naprave grešku.

They think they know when they don't know.

Misle da znaju kada u stvari ne znaju.

For example, a number of respected economists

Na primer, brojni ugledni ekonomisti

did not expect the financial collapse of 2008.

nisu očekivali finansijski kolaps 2008.

They turned out to be wrong.

Ispostavilo se da su pogrešili.

Maybe they were wrong

Možda su pogrešili

because they were overlooking some important evidence.

zato što su prevideli neki važan dokaz.

Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting

Možda su pogrešili jer su pogrešno tumačili

some of the evidence they had noticed.

neke dokaze koje su primetili.

Or maybe they were wrong

Ili su možda pogrešili

simply because they were reasoning carelessly

prosto jer nisu zaključivali pažljivo

from the total body of their evidence.

iz kompletnog skupa svojih dokaza.

But whatever the reason,

Ali šta god da je razlog,

they turned out to be wrong

ispostavilo se da su pogrešili

and many people who trusted their authority

i mnogi ljudi koji su verovali njihovom autoritetu

ended up losing lots of money,

izgubili su na kraju mnogo novca,

losing lots of other people's money,

gubeći mnogo novca drugih ljudi,

on account of that misplaced trust.

zbog tog pogrešnog verovanja.

So while appealing to authority

Tako da, dok obraćanje autoritetu

can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge,

ponekad može da nam obezbedi vredno saznanje,

it also can sometimes be the cause

ono takođe ponekad može biti uzrok

of monumental errors.

monumentalnih grešaka.

It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish

Važno je za sve nas da možemo da razlikujemo

those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority

one prilike u kojima možemo bezbedno i razumno da verujemo autoritetu

from those occasions on which we can't.

od onih prilika u kojima ne možemo.

But how do we do that?

Ali kako to da uradimo?

In order to do that,

Da bismo to uradili,

nothing is more useful than

ništa nije korisnije nego

an authority's track record on a particular topic.

iskustvo autoriteta u vezi sa određenom oblašću.

If someone turns out to perform well

Ako su nečiji rezultati najčešće dobri

in a given situation much of the time,

u datoj situaciji,

then it's likely that he or she will continue

onda je verovatno da će on ili ona nastaviti

to perform well in that same situation,

da daje dobre rezultate u toj istoj situaciji,

at least in the near term.

barem u bliskoj budućnosti.

And this generalization holds true

I ova generalizacija je tačna

of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else.

kako za svedočenja autoriteta, tako i za bilo šta drugo.

If someone can consistently pick winners

Ako neko može konstantno da bira pobednike

in both politics and baseball,

u politici i u bejzbolu,

then we should probably trust him or her

onda njemu ili njoj verovatno možemo verovati

to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball,

da će da nastavi da bira pobednike i u politici i u bejzbolu,

though maybe not in other things

iako možda ne i u drugim stvarima

where his or her track record may be less stellar.

gde je njegov ili njen rezultat možda manje sjajan.

If other forecasters have a poorer track record

Ako drugi prognozeri imaju slabije rezultate

on those same two topics,

u ove iste dve oblasti,

then we shouldn't trust them as much.

onda ne treba da im verujemo toliko.

So whenever you're considering whether

Zato, kad god razmišljate

to trust the testimony of some authority,

da li da verujete svedočenju nekog autoriteta,

the first question to ask yourself is,

prvo se zapitajte:

"What's their track record on this topic?"

"Kakvi su njihovi prethodni rezultati u ovoj oblasti?"

And notice that you can apply

I zapazite da možete da primenite

the very same lesson to yourself.

ovu istu lekciju na sebe.

Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right,

Vaši instinkti vam kažu da ste upravo upoznali gospodina "Pravog",

but what sort of track record do your instincts have

ali kakve prethodne rezultate imaju vaši instinkti

on topics like this one?

u oblastima kao što je ova?

Have your instincts proven themselves

Da li su se vaši instinkti dokazali

to be worthy of your trust?

vrednim vašeg poverenja?

Just as we judge other people's testimony

Baš kao što sudimo o svedočenju drugih ljudi

by their track record,

prema njihovim prethodnim rezultatima,

so, too, we can judge our own instincts

tako takođe možemo da sudimo o svojim instinktima

by their track record.

prema njihovim prethodnim rezultatima.

And this brings us one step closer

I ovo nas dovodi jedan korak bliže

to an objective view of ourselves

objektivnom viđenju sebe

and our relation to the world around us.

i našem odnosu prema svetu oko nas.