The psychology behind irrational decisions - Sara Garofalo

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković

Let's say you're on a game show.

Recimo da učestvujete u kvizu.

You've already earned $1000 in the first round

Već ste zaradili 1000 dolara u prvoj rundi,

when you land on the bonus space.

kad vas zatekne bonus polje.

Now, you have a choice.

Sad imate izbor.

You can either take a $500 bonus guaranteed

Možete da uzmete zagarantovani bonus od 500 dolara

or you can flip a coin.

ili da bacate novčić.

If it's heads, you win $1000 bonus.

Ako bude glava, dobijate bonus od 1000 dolara.

If it's tails, you get no bonus at all.

Ako bude pismo, uopšte ne dobijate bonus.

In the second round, you've earned $2000 when you land on the penalty space.

U drugoj rundi ste zaradili 2000 dolara kad vas zatekne kazneno polje.

Now you have another choice.

Sad imate drugi izbor.

You can either take a $500 loss,

Možete da prihvatite gubitak od 500 dolara

or try your luck at the coin flip.

ili da okušate sreću bacanjem novčića.

If it's heads, you lose nothing,

Ako bude glava, ne gubite ništa,

but if it's tails, you lose $1000 instead.

ali, naprotiv, ako bude pismo, gubite 1000 dolara.

If you're like most people,

Ako ste poput većine ljudi,

you probably chose to take the guaranteed bonus in the first round

verovatno ste izabrali da uzmete zagarantovani bonus u prvoj rundi,

and flip the coin in the second round.

a da bacate novčić u drugoj rundi.

But if you think about it, this makes no sense.

No, ako razmislite o tome, ovo nema nikakvog smisla.

The odds and outcomes in both rounds are exactly the same.

Potpuno su iste šanse i ishodi u obe runde.

So why does the second round seem much scarier?

Pa zašto se onda druga runda čini strašnijom?

The answer lies in a phenomenon known as loss aversion.

Odgovor leži u pojavi koja se naziva averzijom prema gubitku.

Under rational economic theory,

Prema racionalnoj ekonomskoj teoriji

our decisions should follow a simple mathematical equation

naše odluke bi trebalo da se vode jednostavnom matematičkom jednačinom

that weighs the level of risk against the amount at stake.

koja odmerava nivo rizika naspram iznosa koji je u pitanju.

But studies have found that for many people,

Ali istraživanja su otkrila da je za mnoge ljude

the negative psychological impact we feel from losing something

negativno psihološko dejstvo koje osećamo zbog gubitka nečega

is about twice as strong as the positive impact of gaining the same thing.

otprilike dvostruko jače od pozitivnog dejstva dobijanja iste stvari.

Loss aversion is one cognitive bias that arises from heuristics,

Averzija prema gubitku je kognitivna predrasuda proistekla iz heuristike,

problem-solving approaches based on previous experience and intuition

pristupa rešavanju problema zasnovanog na prethodnom iskustvu i intuiciji,

rather than careful analysis.

a ne na pažljivoj analizi.

And these mental shortcuts can lead to irrational decisions,

A ove mentalne prečice mogu da dovedu do iracionalnih odluka,

not like falling in love

ne nalik zaljubljivanju

or bungee jumping off a cliff,

ili skakanju bandžijem s litice,

but logical fallacies that can easily be proven wrong.

već logičkih zabluda koje lako mogu da se opovrgnu.

Situations involving probability are notoriously bad for applying heuristics.

Situacije koje se tiču verovatnoće su čuveno loše za primenu heuristike.

For instance, say you were to roll a die with four green faces and two red faces

Na primer, recimo da treba da bacate kocku sa četiri zelene i dve crvene strane

twenty times.

dvadeset puta.

You can choose one of the following sequences of rolls,

Možete da izaberete jedan od sledećih nizova bacanja

and if it shows up, you'll win $25.

i ako on dođe, dobijate 25 dolara.

Which would you pick?

Koji biste niz odabrali?

In one study, 65% of the participants who were all college students

U jednom istraživanju, 65% učesnika koji su svi bili studenti,

chose sequence B

izabrali su niz pod B,

even though A is shorter and contained within B,

iako je A kraći i sadržan je unutar B niza,

in other words, more likely.

drugim rečima, verovatniji je.

This is what's called a conjunction fallacy.

Ovo se naziva greškom konjunkcije.

Here, we expect to see more green rolls,

Ovde očekujemo da ćemo videti više zelenih bacanja,

so our brains can trick us into picking the less likely option.

te naš mozak može da nas obmane da izaberemo manje verovatnu opciju.

Heuristics are also terrible at dealing with numbers in general.

Heuristika je takođe očajna uopšteno kod baratanja brojevima.

In one example, students were split into two groups.

U jednom primeru, studenti su podeljeni u dve grupe.

The first group was asked whether Mahatma Gandhi died before or after age 9,

Prvu grupu su pitali

da li je Mahatma Gandi umro pre ili posle devete godine,

while the second was asked whether he died before or after age 140.

dok su drugu grupu pitali da li je umro pre ili posle 140. godine.

Both numbers were obviously way off,

Oba broja su očigledno bila daleka,

but when the students were then asked to guess the actual age at which he died,

ali kad su studenti potom upitani da pogode tačno u kojoj godini je umro,

the first group's answers averaged to 50

odgovori prve grupe su u proseku bili oko broja 50,

while the second group's averaged to 67.

dok su u drugoj grupi u proseku bili oko broja 67.

Even though the clearly wrong information in the initial questions

Iako bi očigledno pogrešna informacija iz prvog pitanja

should have been irrelevant,

trebalo da bude nebitna,

it still affected the students' estimates.

ipak je uticala na procene studenata.

This is an example of the anchoring effect,

Ovo je primer efekta sidra

and it's often used in marketing and negotiations

i često se koristi u marketingu i u pregovorima

to raise the prices that people are willing to pay.

kako bi se podigla cena koju su ljudi voljni da plate.

So, if heuristics lead to all these wrong decisions,

Pa, ako heuristika vodi do svih tih pogrešnih odluka,

why do we even have them?

zašto je uopšte posedujemo?

Well, because they can be quite effective.

Pa zato što može da bude prilično efikasna.

For most of human history,

Većim delom ljudske istorije

survival depended on making quick decisions with limited information.

opstanak je zavisio od donošenja brzih odluka uz ograničene informacije.

When there's no time to logically analyze all the possibilities,

Kad nema vremena za logičku analizu svih mogućnosti,

heuristics can sometimes save our lives.

heuristika nam ponekad može spasiti život.

But today's environment requires far more complex decision-making,

No današnje okruženje zahteva daleko složenije odlučivanje,

and these decisions are more biased by unconscious factors than we think,

a te odluke su zbog nesvesnih faktora daleko pristrasnije nego što mislimo,

affecting everything from health and education

utiču na sve, od zdravlja i obrazovanja

to finance and criminal justice.

do finansija i kriminalne pravde.

We can't just shut off our brain's heuristics,

Ne možemo prosto da isključimo heuristiku našeg uma,

but we can learn to be aware of them.

ali možemo da naučimo da je budemo svesni.

When you come to a situation involving numbers,

Kada se zateknete u situaciji koja podrazumeva brojeve,

probability,

verovatnoću

or multiple details,

ili višestruke detalje,

pause for a second

zastanite na sekund

and consider that the intuitive answer might not be the right one after all.

i uzmite u obzir da intuitivni odgovor, naposletku, možda i nije tačan.