The psychology behind irrational decisions - Sara Garofalo

Prevoditelj: Mirela Ivoš Recezent: Sanda L

Let's say you're on a game show.

Recimo da ste na kvizu.

You've already earned $1000 in the first round

Već ste osvojili 1000 dolara u prvome krugu

when you land on the bonus space.

kada otvorite bonus polje.

Now, you have a choice.

Sada imate izbor.

You can either take a $500 bonus guaranteed

Možete uzeti 500 dolara zagarantiranog bonusa

or you can flip a coin.

ili možete bacati novčić.

If it's heads, you win $1000 bonus.

Ako je glava, osvajate bonus od 1000 dolara.

If it's tails, you get no bonus at all.

Ako je pismo, ne dobivate ništa.

In the second round, you've earned $2000 when you land on the penalty space.

U drugome krugu osvojili ste 2000 dolara kada otvorite kazneno polje.

Now you have another choice.

Sada imate drugi izbor.

You can either take a $500 loss,

Možete izgubiti 500 dolara

or try your luck at the coin flip.

ili iskušati svoju sreću novčićem.

If it's heads, you lose nothing,

Ako je glava, ne gubite ništa,

but if it's tails, you lose $1000 instead.

ali ako je pismo, tada gubite 1000 dolara.

If you're like most people,

Ako ste kao većina ljudi,

you probably chose to take the guaranteed bonus in the first round

vjerojatnije je da ćete u prvome krugu uzeti zagarantirani bonus

and flip the coin in the second round.

i baciti novčić u drugome krugu.

But if you think about it, this makes no sense.

Ali ako razmislite, to nema smisla.

The odds and outcomes in both rounds are exactly the same.

Šanse i ishodi u oba su kruga jednaki.

So why does the second round seem much scarier?

Zašto se onda drugi krug čini strašnijim?

The answer lies in a phenomenon known as loss aversion.

Odgovor leži u fenomenu poznatom pod nazivom averzija prema gubitku.

Under rational economic theory,

Prema teoriji racionalnog izbora,

our decisions should follow a simple mathematical equation

naše odluke trebaju slijediti jednostavnu matematičku jednadžbu

that weighs the level of risk against the amount at stake.

koja procjenjuje razinu rizika nasuprot iznosu koji je u pitanju.

Ali istraživanja su pokazala kako je za mnoge ljude

But studies have found that for many people,

the negative psychological impact we feel from losing something

negativni psihološki utjecaj osjećaja gubitka nečega

is about twice as strong as the positive impact of gaining the same thing.

otprilike dvaput veći od pozitivnog utjecaja dobivanja iste stvari.

Loss aversion is one cognitive bias that arises from heuristics,

Averzija prema gubitku je kognitivna pristranost nastala iz heuristika,

problem-solving approaches based on previous experience and intuition

pristupa rješavanju problema temeljenog na prethodnom iskustvu i intuiciji,

rather than careful analysis.

radije nego na pažljivoj analizi.

And these mental shortcuts can lead to irrational decisions,

Ti mentalni prečaci mogu dovesti do iracionalnih odluka,

not like falling in love

ne poput zaljubljivanja

or bungee jumping off a cliff,

ili bungee jumpinga s litice,

but logical fallacies that can easily be proven wrong.

nego logičkih pogrešaka za koje se lako dokaže da su pogrešne.

Situations involving probability are notoriously bad for applying heuristics.

Situacije koje uključuju vjerojatnosti notorno su loše za primjenu heuristika.

For instance, say you were to roll a die with four green faces and two red faces

Na primjer, recimo da bacate kocku s četiri zelene i dvije crvene strane

twenty times.

dvadeset puta.

You can choose one of the following sequences of rolls,

Možete birati jednu od ponuđenih opcija ishoda bacanja

and if it shows up, you'll win $25.

i ako se pojavi, osvajate 25 dolara.

Which would you pick?

Koju biste odabrali?

In one study, 65% of the participants who were all college students

U jednom istraživanju, 65 % sudionika, od kojih su svi bili studenti,

chose sequence B

odabralo je opciju B

even though A is shorter and contained within B,

iako je A kraća i sadržana unutar B,

in other words, more likely.

drugim riječima, vjerojatnija je.

This is what's called a conjunction fallacy.

Ovo se naziva pogreškom reprezentativnosti.

Here, we expect to see more green rolls,

Očekujemo da ćemo vidjeti više zelenih kockica

so our brains can trick us into picking the less likely option.

te nas mozak može zavarati da odaberemo manje vjerojatnu opciju.

Heuristics are also terrible at dealing with numbers in general.

Heuristici su općenito loši kada su u pitanju brojevi.

In one example, students were split into two groups.

U jednom primjeru studenti su podijeljeni u dvije grupe.

The first group was asked whether Mahatma Gandhi died before or after age 9,

Prva je grupa upitana je li Mahatma Gandhi umro prije 9. godine,

while the second was asked whether he died before or after age 140.

dok je druga upitana je li umro nakon 140. godine.

Both numbers were obviously way off,

Oba su broja daleko od točnog,

but when the students were then asked to guess the actual age at which he died,

ali kada se od obje grupe tražilo da pogode u kojoj je godini zapravo umro,

the first group's answers averaged to 50

prosjek odgovora prve grupe bio je 50,

while the second group's averaged to 67.

a druge 67.

Even though the clearly wrong information in the initial questions

Iako su očito krive informacije u početnim pitanjima

should have been irrelevant,

trebale biti nebitne,

it still affected the students' estimates.

one su i dalje utjecale na procjene studenata.

This is an example of the anchoring effect,

Ovo je primjer efekta sidrenja

and it's often used in marketing and negotiations

i često se koristi u marketingu i pregovaranjima

to raise the prices that people are willing to pay.

kako bi se podigle cijene do onih koje su ljudi spremni platiti.

So, if heuristics lead to all these wrong decisions,

Dakle, ako heuristici dovode do svih ovih krivih odluka,

why do we even have them?

zašto ih uopće imamo?

Well, because they can be quite effective.

Pa, jer mogu biti prilično učinkoviti.

For most of human history,

Kroz većinu ljudske povijesti

survival depended on making quick decisions with limited information.

preživljavanje je ovisilo o brzom donošenju odluka uz ograničene informacije.

When there's no time to logically analyze all the possibilities,

Kada nema vremena da se logički analiziraju sve mogućnosti,

heuristics can sometimes save our lives.

heuristici nam ponekad mogu spasiti život.

But today's environment requires far more complex decision-making,

Ali današnja okolina zahtijeva daleko kompleksnije donošenje odluka

and these decisions are more biased by unconscious factors than we think,

i te su odluke ovisnije o nesvjesnim faktorima nego što mislimo,

affecting everything from health and education

utječući tako na sve, od zdravlja i edukacije

to finance and criminal justice.

do financija i kaznenog pravosuđa.

We can't just shut off our brain's heuristics,

Ne možemo samo isključiti heuristike u mozgu,

but we can learn to be aware of them.

ali ih možemo naučiti biti svjesni.

When you come to a situation involving numbers,

Kada se nađete u situaciji koja sadrži brojeve,

probability,

vjerojatnosti

or multiple details,

ili više detalja,

pause for a second

zastanite na sekundu

and consider that the intuitive answer might not be the right one after all.

i razmotrite da intuitivni odgovor možda ipak nije onaj pravi.