Why can’t governments print an unlimited amount of money? - Jonathan Smith

Prevodilac: Anđela Miladinović Lektor: Milenka Okuka

In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic rocked economies worldwide.

U martu 2020. godine, pandemija COVID-19 potresla je ekonomije širom sveta.

Millions of people lost their jobs,

Milioni ljudi su ostali bez posla,

and many businesses struggled to survive or shut down completely.

a mnoga preduzeća su se mučila da prežive ili su se totalno ugasila.

Governments responded with some of the largest economic relief packages

Vlade su reagovale jednim od najvećih paketa ekonomskih olakšica

in history—

u istoriji -

the United States alone spent $2.2 trillion on a first round of relief.

samo Sjedninjene Američke Države potrošile su $2,2 biliona na prvi krug olakšica.

So where did all this money come from?

Dakle, odakle potiče sav taj novac?

Most countries have a central bank that manages the money supply

Većina država ima centralnu banku koja upravlja novčanom masom

and is independent from the government to prevent political interference.

i nezavisna je od vlade kako bi se sprečilo političko mešanje.

The government can implement many types of economic policy,

Vlada može da sprovede razne vrste ekonomske politike,

like decreasing people's taxes

kao što su smanjenje poreza građanima

and creating jobs through public infrastructure projects,

i kreiranje radnih mesta kroz projekte javne infrastrukture,

but it actually can’t just increase the money supply.

ali ona zapravo ne može jednostavno da poveća novčanu masu.

The central bank determines how much money is in circulation at a time.

Centralna banka određuje koliko novca cirkuliše u datom trenutku.

So why can’t central banks authorize the printing of unlimited money

Pa, zašto centralne banke ne mogu odobriti štampanje neograničene količine novca

to help an economy in crisis?

kako bi pomogle ekonomiji u krizi?

They could, but that’s a short-term solution

Mogu, ali to je kratkotrajno rešenje

that doesn’t necessarily boost economic growth in the long-term,

koje ne mora nužno da poboljša ekonomski rast na duže staze,

and can actually hurt the economy.

i zapravo može da naudi ekonomiji.

Why?

Zašto?

With more money in circulation,

Kada cirkuliše više novca,

manufacturers of goods like food, clothing, and cars

proizvođači robe kao što su hrana, odeća i automobili

could respond to demand simply by raising prices,

mogu da odreaguju na tražnju tako što će jednostavno povećati cene,

rather than manufacturing more of these goods

umesto da proizvode više te robe

and creating new jobs in the process.

i usput kreiraju nova radna mesta.

This would mean you could no longer buy as much with the same amount of money—

Ovo bi značilo da više ne možete kupiti istu robu sa istom količinom novca -

a situation known as inflation.

a to je situacija poznata kao inflacija.

A little bit of inflation, about 2% a year,

Mala doza inflacije, oko 2% godišnje,

is considered a sign of economic health, but more can quickly derail an economy.

smatra se znakom ekonomskog zdravlja, ali više može brzo poremetiti ekonomiju.

In recent decades, central banks have tried an approach

Poslednjih decenija, centralne banke su isprobale pristup

called quantitative easing to infuse the economy with cash

pod nazivom kvantitativno popuštanje kako bi se u ekonomiju ubrizgao novac

while maintaining a low risk of severe inflation.

uz održavanje niskog rizika od ozbiljne inflacije.

In this approach,

U ovom pristupu,

a central bank increases cash flow by purchasing another entity’s bonds.

centralna banka povećava protok novca kupovinom obveznica drugog entiteta.

Anyone can buy bonds from corporations or governments.

Bilo ko može da kupi obveznice od korporacija ili vlada.

When you buy a bond, you’re essentially loaning money to the company—

Kada kupite obveznicu, vi u suštini pozajmljujete novac kompaniji -

or government— with the promise that they’ll pay it back later with interest.

ili vladi - uz obećanje da će vam kasnije otplatiti sa kamatom.

This is why buying bonds is sometimes referred to as buying debt.

Zato se ponekad na kupovinu obveznica posmatra kao na kupovinu duga.

When an individual buys a bond, they're using money that's already in circulation.

Kada pojedinac kupi obveznicu, on koristi novac koji već cirkuliše.

But when the central bank buys a bond, it essentially creates cash,

Ali kada centralna banka kupi obveznicu, to u suštini kreira gotovinu,

supplying money that didn’t exist before in exchange for bonds.

snabdevajući novac koji ranije nije postojao u zamenu za obveznice.

Both during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and again in 2020,

Tokom finansijske krize 2008-2009, i ponovo 2020. godine,

the United States’ central bank, the Federal Reserve,

centralna banka Sjedinjenih Država, Federalne rezerve,

bought bonds from the US government called treasury bonds.

kupila je obveznice od vlade SAD-a pod nazivom blagajničke obveznice.

Historically, many people have purchased these bonds as a safe form of investment,

Istorijski gledano, mnogi ljudi su kupili te obveznice kao bezbedan oblik ulaganja,

knowing the US government will pay them back with interest.

znajući da će im ih vlada SAD-a otplatiti sa kamatom.

In early 2020, the Federal Reserve pledged to buy unlimited treasury bonds,

Početkom 2020, Federalne rezerve obavezale su se da kupe neograničen broj obveznica,

loaning the U.S. government an unprecedented amount of money—

pozajmljujući vladi SAD-a do sada nezabeleženu sumu novca -

cash that the government used to fund relief efforts

a tu gotovinu je vlada iskoristila da finansira ekonomske olakšice

like stimulus checks and unemployment benefits.

kao što su podsticajni čekovi i naknade za nezaposlene.

This isn’t equivalent to simply printing money,

Ovo nije isto što i obično štampanje novca,

though it may sound similar.

iako može slično da zvuči.

Because of the way bonds are priced, by buying so many,

Zbog načina na koji se obveznice cene, kupovinom tolike količine,

the Federal Reserve effectively lowered the return on them,

Federalne rezerve su delotvorno smanjile prihod od njih,

which incentivizes other investors to lend to riskier entities—

što podstiče ostale investitore da pozajmljuju rizičnijim entitetima -

like small and midsize companies— in order to get a decent return.

kao što su mala ili srednja preduzeća - kako bi se ostvario pristojan prihod.

Encouraging lending this way should help companies of all sizes borrow money

Takav podsticaj trebalo bi da pomogne preduzećima svih veličina da pozajme novac

to funnel into projects and hires,

koji bi se usmerio na projekte i zapošljavanje,

boosting the economy over time in addition to helping the government

vremenom pojačavajući ekonomiju uz pružanje pomoći vladi

supply people with urgently needed cash in the short term.

u snabdevanju ljudi hitno potrebnom gotovinom u kratkom roku.

The Federal Reserve’s pledge to buy unlimited government debt

Obećanje Federalnih rezervi da kupe neograničenu količinu vladinog duga

has raised some questions— and eyebrows.

prouzrokovalo je kako pitanja, tako i sumnje.

In theory, this means the government could issue more bonds,

Teoretski, ovo znači da bi vlada mogla da izda više obveznica,

which the central bank would purchase.

koje bi centralna banka kupila.

The government could then use the money from the new bonds

Vlada bi zatim mogla da iskoristi novac od novih obveznica

to pay off the old bonds,

kako bi isplatila stare obveznice,

effectively meaning the government never pays back its debt to the central bank.

što u suštini znači da vlada nikad ne bi vratila dug centralnoj banci.

Citing this and other theoretical scenarios,

Citirajući ove i slične teoretske scenarije,

some economists have raised concerns that a central bank buying government debt

neki ekonomisti su izrazili zabrinutost da je centralna banka koja kupuje vladin dug

is a subversion of a system designed to protect the economy.

podrivanje sistema stvorenog za zaštitu ekonomije.

Others have insisted these measures are necessary,

Drugi insistiraju da su takve mere neophodne,

and have so far helped stabilize economies.

i da su do sada pomogle u stabilizaciji ekonomije.

Though quantitative easing has become a lot more common in recent years,

Iako je kvantitativno popuštanje postalo mnogo zastupljenije poslednjih godina,

it’s still relatively new, and potential consequences are still unfolding.

još uvek je relativno novo i njegove potencijalne posledice se još odvijaju.