Why can’t governments print an unlimited amount of money? - Jonathan Smith

譯者: Sichen Wei 審譯者: Zoe Walmsley

In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic rocked economies worldwide.

2020 年三月 COVID-19 疫情爆發，撼動全球經濟。

Millions of people lost their jobs,

數百萬人失業，

and many businesses struggled to survive or shut down completely.

許多企業若非一息尚存，就是關門。

Governments responded with some of the largest economic relief packages

政府紛紛推出史上最大的經濟方案

in history—

幫忙紓困──

the United States alone spent $2.2 trillion on a first round of relief.

美國聯邦政府第一輪的紓困金 就高達 2.2 兆美元。

So where did all this money come from?

所以，這些錢從哪裡來？

Most countries have a central bank that manages the money supply

多數國家都設有中央銀行， 管理貨幣供給，

and is independent from the government to prevent political interference.

且為了防止政治干預， 獨立於政府之外。

The government can implement many types of economic policy,

政府可以實施很多不同的經濟政策，

like decreasing people's taxes

例如降低繳稅額度、

and creating jobs through public infrastructure projects,

通過公共基礎建設創造就業機會，

but it actually can’t just increase the money supply.

但是這些方法無法增加貨幣供給。

The central bank determines how much money is in circulation at a time.

市場流通的貨幣量由中央銀行決定。

So why can’t central banks authorize the printing of unlimited money

那麼，何不讓中央銀行授權無限制印鈔

to help an economy in crisis?

來救經濟呢？

They could, but that’s a short-term solution

他們是可以這麼做， 但那是短期的解決辦法，

that doesn’t necessarily boost economic growth in the long-term,

無法促進長期的經濟增長，

and can actually hurt the economy.

且可能會對經濟造成損傷。

Why?

為什麼？

With more money in circulation,

因為有更多的貨幣流通，

manufacturers of goods like food, clothing, and cars

食品、服裝、和汽車等商品的製造商

could respond to demand simply by raising prices,

就會簡單地以提高價格 來因應上升的需求，

rather than manufacturing more of these goods

而非生產更多商品，

and creating new jobs in the process.

及創造更多的工作機會。

This would mean you could no longer buy as much with the same amount of money—

也就是說你花同樣的錢 買到的東西卻變少了──

a situation known as inflation.

這就是所謂的通貨膨脹。

A little bit of inflation, about 2% a year,

一點點通膨，大約一年 2%，

is considered a sign of economic health, but more can quickly derail an economy.

被視為經濟的健康指標， 過高能讓經濟迅速脫軌。

In recent decades, central banks have tried an approach

最近這幾十年，中央銀行採取一種措施

called quantitative easing to infuse the economy with cash

稱做量化寬鬆，將貨幣注入經濟，

while maintaining a low risk of severe inflation.

同時控制發生嚴重通膨的風險。

In this approach,

量化寬鬆的做法是：

a central bank increases cash flow by purchasing another entity’s bonds.

央行藉由購買其他機構的債券 提高現金流通。

Anyone can buy bonds from corporations or governments.

任何人都能買企業和政府發行的債券。

When you buy a bond, you’re essentially loaning money to the company—

你買債券其實就是貸款給企業或政府，

or government— with the promise that they’ll pay it back later with interest.

未來他們保證連本帶利贖回。

This is why buying bonds is sometimes referred to as buying debt.

這就是為什麼購買債券 有時也稱為購買債務的原因。

When an individual buys a bond, they're using money that's already in circulation.

個人購買債券時，使用的錢 是早已在市場流通的貨幣。

But when the central bank buys a bond, it essentially creates cash,

但當中央銀行購買債券時， 基本上就是在印鈔票，

supplying money that didn’t exist before in exchange for bonds.

用之前並不存在的貨幣去換債券。

Both during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and again in 2020,

無論是 2008-2009 年期間， 還是 2020 年的金融危機，

the United States’ central bank, the Federal Reserve,

美國的中央銀行，聯邦準備理事會，

bought bonds from the US government called treasury bonds.

都購買了美國政府發行的國庫債券。

Historically, many people have purchased these bonds as a safe form of investment,

一直以來，許多人將買債券 視為一種安全的投資，

knowing the US government will pay them back with interest.

因為美國政府一定會連本帶利地贖回。

In early 2020, the Federal Reserve pledged to buy unlimited treasury bonds,

2020 年年初，聯準會承諾 將無限量購入國庫債券，

loaning the U.S. government an unprecedented amount of money—

借給美國政府史無前例的巨大款項──

cash that the government used to fund relief efforts

政府將這些現金用於紓困上，

like stimulus checks and unemployment benefits.

發放刺激消費的支票和失業救濟金。

This isn’t equivalent to simply printing money,

這與純粹的印鈔票並不相同，

though it may sound similar.

儘管聽起來很類似。

Because of the way bonds are priced, by buying so many,

由於債券的定價方式， 加上如此大量地購買，

the Federal Reserve effectively lowered the return on them,

聯準會實際上將利息降低了，

which incentivizes other investors to lend to riskier entities—

藉此帶動投資者貸款給 風險稍高的機構，

like small and midsize companies— in order to get a decent return.

例如中小企業等，以期達到高報酬率。

Encouraging lending this way should help companies of all sizes borrow money

鼓勵如此貸款能讓各種規模的公司

to funnel into projects and hires,

將借來的錢投資新計畫，雇用新人，

boosting the economy over time in addition to helping the government

慢慢地推動經濟，同時也幫助政府

supply people with urgently needed cash in the short term.

在短期內提供了大家所急需的現金。

The Federal Reserve’s pledge to buy unlimited government debt

聯準會無限購入國債的承諾

has raised some questions— and eyebrows.

引發了一些問題及側目。

In theory, this means the government could issue more bonds,

理論上，政府可以發行更多債券，

which the central bank would purchase.

中央銀行一樣全數購買。

The government could then use the money from the new bonds

那政府就可以用發行新債券得來的錢

to pay off the old bonds,

去贖回舊債券，

effectively meaning the government never pays back its debt to the central bank.

基本上就像是政府永遠 不必償還欠央行的債務。

Citing this and other theoretical scenarios,

這個理論加上其他的假設，

some economists have raised concerns that a central bank buying government debt

讓某些經濟學家擔心── 中央銀行購買政府債券

is a subversion of a system designed to protect the economy.

會讓原本設計來保護經濟的機制末頂。

Others have insisted these measures are necessary,

一些人則堅持這麼做有其必要，

and have so far helped stabilize economies.

目前看起來也的確有助於穩定經濟。

Though quantitative easing has become a lot more common in recent years,

儘管量化寬鬆在近年已經較為常見，

it’s still relatively new, and potential consequences are still unfolding.

卻仍然很新，潛在後果仍待揭曉。