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譯者: Willy Feng
審譯者: Jessie Lee
00:12
What do we know about the future?
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我們對於未來瞭解多少呢?
00:14
Difficult question,
simple answer: nothing.
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這問題很難,但答案很簡單︰「一無所知」
00:17
We cannot predict the future.
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我們無法預知未來
00:19
We only can create a vision
of the future, how it might be,
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我們只能給未來一個願景,去想像未來的樣子
00:24
a vision which reveals disruptive
ideas, which is inspiring,
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富有破壞性創新的願景能激發靈感
00:27
and this is the most important reason
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這就是打破一連串平凡無奇思維的重要原因
00:30
which breaks the chains
of common thinking.
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這就是打破一連串平凡無奇思維的重要原因
00:33
There are a lot of people
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有許多人
00:34
who created their own vision
about the future,
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創造出他們自己心中未來的樣貌
00:36
for instance, this vision here
from the early 20th century.
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例如,這是廿世紀初期的願景
00:39
It says here that this
is the ocean plane of the future.
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在未來有種越洋的飛機
00:44
It takes only one and a half days
to cross the Atlantic Ocean.
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只需要一天半就能橫越大西洋
00:47
Today, we know that this future
vision didn't come true.
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今天我們知道這種想像並沒有成真
00:51
So this is our largest
airplane which we have,
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而這是現今最大的飛機
00:54
the Airbus A380, and it's quite huge,
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空中巴士 A380,非常龐大
00:56
so a lot of people fit in there
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能夠乘載許多人
00:58
and it's technically completely different
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而在技術上完全不同於
01:00
than the vision I've shown to you.
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剛剛給你們看過的想像圖
01:03
I'm working in a team with Airbus,
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我在空中巴士裡的一個團隊
01:05
and we have created our vision
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創造一個我們的願景
01:06
about a more sustainable
future of aviation.
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能永續經營的航空事業
01:09
So sustainability is quite
important for us,
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永續對我們很重要
這不僅應與社會價值聯結
01:12
which should incorporate social
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01:13
but as well as environmental
and economic values.
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亦應與環保和經濟價值聯結
01:16
So we have created a very
disruptive structure
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所以我們創造了一種顛覆性的結構
01:19
which mimics the design
of bone, or a skeleton,
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這仿效了大自然中
骨頭或骨骼的設計
01:23
which occurs in nature.
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01:25
So that's why it looks
maybe a little bit weird,
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因此這個可能看起來有點奇怪
01:27
especially to the people who deal
with structures in general.
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尤其對於那些了解結構的人
01:31
But at least it's just a kind of artwork
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但至少這像是一件藝術品
01:33
to explore our ideas
about a different future.
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是對於不同未來的一種探索
01:38
What are the main customers of the future?
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未來的乘客會是什麼樣子的?
01:41
So, we have the old, we have the young,
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有年邁的、有年輕的、
01:42
we have the uprising power of women,
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我們有日益升高的女性勢力
01:45
and there's one mega-trend
which affects all of us.
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還有一個影響所有人的重大趨勢
01:49
These are the future anthropometrics.
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這是未來的人體體態
01:52
So our children are getting
larger, but at the same time
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小孩的身形愈來愈大,但同時
01:55
we are growing into different directions.
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我們也向不同的方向成長
01:58
So what we need is space
inside the aircraft,
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所以我們需要在非常擁擠的機艙裡
02:03
inside a very dense area.
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有更大的空間
02:05
These people have different needs.
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這些人們有不同的需求
02:07
So we see a clear need
of active health promotion,
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所以我們看到積極推廣健康的明確需求
02:11
especially in the case of the old people.
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尤其是老年人
02:13
We want to be treated as individuals.
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我們希望有量身訂做的特別禮遇
02:15
We like to be productive
throughout the entire travel chain,
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我們希望整個旅程是富有成效的
02:21
and what we are doing in the future is
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而我們正在做的就是
02:23
we want to use the latest
man-machine interface,
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在未來應用最新的人機介面
02:26
and we want to integrate this
and show this in one product.
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而且把這些全部整合在單一產品中
02:31
So we combined these needs
with technology's themes.
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所以我們以科技的題材結合所有的需求
02:34
So for instance, we are asking ourselves,
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例如,我們自問要如何產生更多的光?
02:37
how can we create more light?
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例如,我們自問要如何產生更多的光?
02:39
How can we bring more natural
light into the airplane?
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如何在機艙內有更多的自然光?
02:41
So this airplane has no
windows anymore, for example.
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以這飛機為例,它不再有窗戶的設計
02:45
What about the data
and communication software
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在未來我們需要哪些資訊和通訊軟體呢?
02:47
which we need in the future?
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在未來我們需要哪些資訊和通訊軟體呢?
02:49
My belief is that the airplane
of the future
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我相信未來的飛機
02:52
will get its own consciousness.
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會有自己的意識
02:54
It will be more like a living organism
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它會更像是一個生命有機體
02:57
than just a collection
of very complex technology.
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而不是只是複雜工程的集合體
03:01
This will be very different in the future.
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這在將來是非常大的改變
03:03
It will communicate directly
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它會直接與機上的乘客交流
03:05
with the passenger in its environment.
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它會直接與機上的乘客交流
03:08
And then we are talking
also about materials,
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再談到材枓
03:10
synthetic biology, for example.
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像是合成生物學
03:12
And my belief is that we will get
more and more
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我相信接下來我們會有愈來愈多
03:15
new materials which we can
put into structure later on,
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應用在結構上的新材料
03:19
because structure is one of the key
issues in aircraft design.
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因為結構是飛機最關鍵的設計之一
03:23
So let's compare the old
world with the new world.
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讓我們比較一下新舊兩種世界
03:27
I just want to show you here
what we are doing today.
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讓你們看看我們的作法
03:29
So this is a bracket of an A380
crew rest compartment.
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這是 A380 機組員休息艙的框架
03:33
It takes a lot of weight,
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以傳統銑床方式設計,重量很重
03:35
and it follows the classical design rules.
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以傳統銑床方式設計,重量很重
03:38
This here is an equal bracket
for the same purpose.
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而這裡是同樣功能的框架
03:41
It follows the design of bone.
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但利用骨骼的設計方式
03:43
The design process
is completely different.
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設計過程是完全的不同
03:46
At the one hand, we have 1.2 kilos,
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一個是 1.2 公斤
03:49
and at the other hand 0.6 kilos.
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而另一個僅有 0.6 公斤
03:51
So this technology, 3D
printing, and new design rules
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這 3D 列印技術和新的設計方式
03:54
really help us to reduce the weight,
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確實幫助我們減輕了重量
03:56
which is the biggest issue
in aircraft design,
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重量是設計飛機時最重要的議題
03:58
because it's directly linked
to greenhouse gas emissions.
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因為這和溫室氣體排放量有直接關係
04:01
Push this idea a little bit forward.
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將這個想法加以延伸
04:03
So how does nature build its
components and structures?
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大自然如何建造它的元件和結構呢?
大自然很聰明,把所有的資訊
04:08
So nature is very clever.
It puts all the information
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04:11
into these small building
blocks, which we call DNA.
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全部放進一個小小的結構單元中,我們稱之為 DNA
04:14
And nature builds large
skeletons out of it.
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而大自然利用 DNA 建造大型的骨架
04:16
So we see a bottom-up approach here,
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所以我們在這裡看到「由單元到總體」的模式
04:19
because all the information,
as I said, are inside the DNA.
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正如我說的,因為所有的訊息都在 DNA 當中
04:22
And this is combined
with a top-down approach,
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而這也結合了「由總體到單元」的模式
04:24
because what we are doing
in our daily life
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因為我們在每天的生活中
04:26
is we train our muscles,
we train our skeleton,
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我們鍛鍊肌肉和骨骼
04:29
and it's getting stronger.
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使其愈發強壯
04:31
And the same approach can be
applied to technology as well.
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同樣的模式可以應用在工程中
04:34
So our building block is carbon
nanotubes, for example,
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例如,我們以碳奈米管為結構元件
04:38
to create a large, rivet-less
skeleton at the end of the day.
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用來完成建造一個無鉚釘的巨大骨架
04:42
How this looks in particular,
you can show it here.
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以下你可以看見這是如何辦到的
04:45
So imagine you have
carbon nanotubes growing
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想像碳奈米管
04:47
inside a 3D printer,
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在 3D 印表機裡生成
04:49
and they are embedded
inside a matrix of plastic,
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嵌在一個塑膠的模型內
04:52
and follow the forces
which occur in your component.
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順著組件中的施力延伸
04:55
And you've got trillions of them.
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數以兆計的碳奈米管
04:57
So you really align them to wood,
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如森林般地聚結在一起
04:59
and you take this wood and make
morphological optimization,
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利用這群「森林」作形態上的最佳化
05:02
so you make structures, sub-structures,
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可以用來當作傳輸
05:04
which allows you to transmit
electrical energy or data.
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電能或資訊的結構或次結構
05:08
And now we take this
material, combine this
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我們拿這個材料
05:10
with a top-down approach,
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結合「由總體到單元」的模式
05:11
and build bigger and bigger components.
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造出更巨大的元件
05:15
So how might the airplane
of the future look?
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所以,未來的飛機會是什麼樣子?
05:18
So we have very different
seats which adapt
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我們有非常特別的座椅
05:20
to the shape of the future passenger,
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可以配合不同身形的乘客
05:22
with the different anthropometrics.
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可以配合不同身形的乘客
05:24
We have social areas inside the aircraft
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我們在飛機上可以有社交的空間
05:26
which might turn into a place
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像是騰出一個區域
05:29
where you can play virtual golf.
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打虛擬高爾夫球
05:31
And finally, this bionic structure,
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最後,這個
覆蓋著一種透明生物高分子膜的仿生物結構
05:34
which is covered by a transparent
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05:36
biopolymer membrane,
will really change radically
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將會徹底地
05:40
how we look at aircrafts in the future.
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改變我們看待未來飛機的方式
05:42
So as Jason Silva said,
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如 Jason Silva 所言
05:44
if we can imagine it, why not make it so?
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「既然我們可以想像,那何不讓它成真?」
05:47
See you in the future. Thank you.
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期待在未來與你相見,謝謝。
05:48
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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