Refugees have the right to be protected | António Guterres

翻译人员: Yan Ge 校对人员: Luyao Zou

Bruno Giussani: Commissioner, thank you for coming to TED.

布鲁诺·吉乌撒尼：专员，感谢您来到TED。

安东尼奥·古特雷斯：非常荣幸。

António Guterres: Pleasure.

布鲁诺：让我们从数据聊起。

BG: Let's start with a figure.

2015年，有将近100万难民和移民 从不同国家涌入欧洲，

During 2015, almost one million refugees and migrants arrived in Europe

from many different countries,

of course, from Syria and Iraq, but also from Afghanistan

比如叙利亚和伊拉克，这众所周知，

也有来自于阿富汗、孟加拉、 厄立特里亚等其他国家的。

and Bangladesh and Eritrea and elsewhere.

And there have been reactions of two different kinds:

对此，人们抱持两种态度：

welcoming parties and border fences.

接纳和排斥。

But I want to look at it a little bit

但我想从短期影响和长期影响的角度 来探讨这个问题。

from the short-term and the long-term perspective.

And the first question is very simple:

我先问一个很简单的问题：

Why has the movement of refugees spiked so fast in the last six months?

为什么在过去六个月间 难民数量激增？

AG: Well, I think, basically, what triggered this huge increase

安东尼奥：我认为难民数量激增 主要是由叙利亚难民引发的。

was the Syrian refugee group.

There has been an increased movement into Europe from Africa, from Asia,

一直以来，欧洲的移民数量都在增长，

这些移民或来自非洲，或来自亚洲，

but slowly growing, and all of a sudden we had this massive increase

但仅仅是缓慢增长，

但在今年年初的几个月间， 移民数量突然飞速增长。

in the first months of this year.

Why? I think there are three reasons,

为什么呢？我认为有三个原因，

two long-term ones and the trigger.

两个长期性因素和一个触发性因素。

The long-term ones, in relation to Syrians,

长期性因素和叙利亚人自身有关，

is that hope is less and less clear for people.

他们越来越看不到希望。

I mean, they look at their own country

我是指，当他们看到自己国家的局势，

and they don't see much hope to go back home,

就觉得重返家园希望渺茫，

because there is no political solution,

因为没有政治解决方案，

so there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

所以黑暗尽头没有曙光。

Second, the living conditions

另外，叙利亚难民 在周边国家的生存条件持续恶化。

of the Syrians in the neighboring countries have been deteriorating.

我们和世界银行刚刚进行了一次调查，

We just had research with the World Bank,

and 87 percent of the Syrians in Jordan

发现有87%的居住于约旦的叙利亚人，

以及93%的居住于黎巴嫩的叙利亚人，

and 93 percent of the Syrians in Lebanon

live below the national poverty lines.

都生活在当地贫困线以下。

Only half of the children go to school,

只有一半的儿童能去上学。

which means that people are living very badly.

这说明人们生存得非常艰难。

Not only are they refugees, out of home,

不提他们的难民身份，背井离乡，

not only have they suffered what they have suffered,

也不提他们所经历的磨难，

单单是贫困的生存环境 就足以令他们举步维艰。

but they are living in very, very dramatic conditions.

And then the trigger was when all of a sudden,

触发性因素就是国际援助突然间减少。

international aid decreased.

The World Food Programme was forced, for lack of resources,

由于资源匮乏，世界粮食计划署 对叙利亚难民的食物供应不得不减少30%。

to cut by 30 percent food support to the Syrian refugees.

They're not allowed to work,

他们由于没有工作许可，

so they are totally dependent on international support,

完全依赖国际援助，

and they felt, "The world is abandoning us."

援助减少让他们感觉 “世界正在抛弃我们”。

And that, in my opinion, was the trigger.

我认为这就是触发性因素。

突然之间，人们都慌了，

All of a sudden, there was a rush,

and people started to move in large numbers

他们开始大批迁移。

and, to be absolutely honest,

说实话，如果我面临同样的处境，

if I had been in the same situation

and I would have been brave enough to do it,

并且有足够的勇气，

I think I would have done the same.

我也会那样做的。

BG: But I think what surprised many people is it's not only sudden,

布鲁诺：不过我认为令人意外的 并不仅仅是事发突然，

but it wasn't supposed to be sudden.

而是事情本不该发生得如此突然。

The war in Syria has been happening for five years.

叙利亚内战已经有5年之久了。

Millions of refugees are in camps and villages and towns around Syria.

数以百万计的难民居住在 叙利亚周边的难民营和难民村里。

您也曾被提醒会有类似情况发生，

You have yourself warned about the situation

and about the consequences of a breakdown of Libya, for example,

比如，利比亚政府倒台可能引发的后果，

and yet Europe looked totally unprepared.

但是欧洲看起来似乎毫无准备。

AG: Well, unprepared because divided,

安东尼奥：毫无准备 是由于欧洲各国各自为政，

and when you are divided, you don't want to recognize the reality.

各自为政导致每个国家都不想面对现实。

You prefer to postpone decisions,

大家都倾向于拖延着不做决定，

because you do not have the capacity to make them.

因为大家都没有能力接纳那么多难民。

And the proof is that even when the spike occurred,

证据是，即使当移民潮发生后，

Europe remained divided

欧洲各国仍然各自为政，

and was unable to put in place a mechanism to manage the situation.

他们无法建立能够 应对这种情况的机制。

You talk about one million people.

你刚刚说到有100万难民，

It looks enormous,

这听起来很多，

but the population of the European Union is 550 million people,

但是欧盟的人口总数是5亿5千万，

which means we are talking about one per every [550] Europeans.

也就是说每2000个欧洲人应对1个难民。

Now, in Lebanon, we have one refugee per three Lebanese.

相比之下，在黎巴嫩，

每3个黎巴嫩人就要应对1个难民。

And Lebanon? Struggling, of course, but it's managing.

黎巴嫩的情况如何？

艰难应对，这是自然的，

但是他们做到了。

So, the question is: is this something that could have been managed

所以，问题是,

我们是不是也能处理好难民问题，

if -- not mentioning the most important thing,

——暂且不提最重要的因素，

也就是处理难民问题的根本成因，

which would have been addressing the root causes,

but forgetting about root causes for now,

现在不管问题的成因，只看现象——

looking at the phenomenon as it is --

if Europe were able to come together in solidarity

如果欧洲各国能够团结起来，

to create an adequate reception capacity of entry points?

为入境处创造充足的接纳能力的话。

But for that, the countries at entry points need to be massively supported,

要做到这一点， 边境国家需要得到大力协助，

and then screening the people with security checks

对入境难民进行安检，

and all the other mechanisms,

并实施一切必要的机制，

distributing those that are coming into all European countries,

然后根据每个欧盟国家的接纳能力 向其输送难民。

according to the possibilities of each country.

I mean, if you look at the relocation program

你可以去看看欧盟委员会批准的 迁移安置计划，

that was approved by the Commission, always too little too late,

其力度和实效性都远远不够。

or by the Council, too little too late --

布鲁诺：这一计划已经失败了。

BG: It's already breaking down.

AG: My country is supposed to receive four thousand.

安东尼奥：我所在的国家 本应接收4000个难民；

对葡萄牙来说，4000人不算什么。

Four thousand in Portugal means nothing.

所以说，如果处理得当， 难民都可以得到妥善安置。

So this is perfectly manageable if it is managed,

but in the present circumstances, the pressure is at the point of entry,

但当下的情况是， 入境处承受了所有的压力，

and then, as people move in this chaotic way through the Balkans,

此后难民毫无秩序地穿过巴尔干地区，

then they come to Germany, Sweden, basically, and Austria.

向德国、瑞典和奥地利迁徙。

They are the three countries that are, in the end, receiving the refugees.

最终的情况是， 这三个国家在不断地接收难民，

The rest of Europe is looking without doing much.

而其他欧洲国家仅是旁观而已。

BG: Let me try to bring up three questions,

布鲁诺：让我再问三个问题，

playing a bit devil's advocate.

跟您唱唱反调。

I'll try to ask them, make them blunt.

我可能问得比较直接，

But I think the questions are very present

但我认为这些问题 正是许多欧洲民众当下关心的。

in the minds of many people in Europe right now,

首先是关于数量。

The first, of course, is about numbers.

You say 550 million versus one million is not much, but realistically,

您提到5亿5千万人应对100万人不成问题，

但现实来讲， 欧洲到底能够接纳多少难民？

how many people can Europe take?

AG: Well, that is a question that has no answer,

安东尼奥：这是一个没有答案的问题，

because refugees have the right to be protected.

因为难民有受到保护的权利，

And there is such a thing as international law,

国际法中也有这样的规定，

so there is no way you can say, "I take 10,000 and that's finished."

所以你不能说 “我只接收1万人，就这么多”。

I remind you of one thing:

我要强调一件事：

in Turkey, at the beginning of the crisis, I remember one minister saying,

我记得在难民危机初期， 土耳其的一位官员曾说过，

"Turkey will be able to receive up to 100,000 people."

“土耳其最多能接收10万难民。”

Turkey has now two million three-hundred thousand

但现在，大约共有230万难民 居住在土耳其。

or something of the sort, if you count all refugees.

So I don't think it's fair to say how many we can take.

因此，我认为我们不应该讨论 欧洲能接纳多少难民，

What it is fair to say is: how we can we organize ourselves

我们应该商榷的是：

欧洲该如何组织起自己，

to assume our international responsibilities?

以担负起在国际事务中的责任？

And Europe has not been able to do so,

欧洲还不能做到这一点，

because basically, Europe is divided because there is no solidarity

因为，总体来讲， 欧洲各国还是各自为政的，

并没有团结起来共同解决欧洲事务。

in the European project.

And it's not only about refugees; there are many other areas.

不仅仅是在难民问题上， 在其他领域也有许多类似的情况。

And let's be honest, this is the moment in which we need more Europe

说实话，就当下的问题来讲，

我们需要更多欧洲国家参与进来， 而非各自为政。

instead of less Europe.

But as the public less and less believes in European institutions,

但由于公众越来越不相信欧盟机构，

it is also each time more difficult to convince the public

我们感到越来越难说服他们 让更多欧洲国家来参与解决问题。

that we need more Europe to solve these problems.

BG: We seem to be at the point

布鲁诺：事情发展到现在，

where the numbers turn into political shifts, particularly domestically.

难民数量看起来正在影响相关政治决策，

特别是国家内政。

We saw it again this weekend in France,

比如这个周末法国宣布的决策，

but we have seen it over and over in many countries:

许多国家都出现过这种情况，

in Poland and in Denmark and in Switzerland and elsewhere,

比如波兰、丹麦、瑞士，等等，

where the mood changes radically because of the numbers,

这些国家对难民的态度 都由于难民数量而突然转变，

although they are not very significant in absolute numbers.

尽管绝对数量的变化并不大。

The Prime Minister of --

（某国的）首相……

AG: But, if I may, on these:

安东尼奥：请容我对这一情况插句话，

I mean, what does a European see at home

我想说，在一个没有移民居住的小村庄里，

in a village where there are no migrants?

一个普通欧洲人眼中的难民是怎样的呢？

What a European sees is, on television,

他们在电视上看到，

every single day, a few months ago, opening the news every single day,

在几个月前，每一天， 他们只要打开电视就能在新闻里看到，

a crowd coming, uncontrolled,

大量人群涌入，毫无秩序，

moving from border to border,

从这个国家的边境到那个国家的边境，

and the images on television were of hundreds

电视画面里就是成百上千的人涌入欧洲。

or thousands of people moving.

And the idea is that nobody is taking care of it --

这让他们觉得 没有人对这种情况进行控制——

this is happening without any kind of management.

这么多难民，却没有人管理。

And so their idea was, "They are coming to my village."

于是他们感到—— ”这些人都会涌入到我的村庄里来。“

So there was this completely false idea that Europe was being invaded

由此人们形成了一个完全错误的想法：

难民正入侵欧洲，

and our way of life is going to change, and everything will --

我们的生活会受到干扰， 所有事情都会……

And the problem is that if this had been properly managed,

问题在于，如果一切都能被妥善管理，

if people had been properly received,

如果难民被以恰当的方式接收，

welcomed, sheltered at point of entry, screened at point of entry,

在入境处接受安检和暂时安置，

and the moved by plane to different European countries,

然后乘飞机去往其他欧洲国家，

this would not have scared people.

这样就不会让人们产生恐慌情绪了。

But, unfortunately, we have a lot of people scared,

但是，很遗憾， 现在许多人都谈难民而色变，

just because Europe was not able to do the job properly.

就是因为欧洲没能妥善处理难民问题。

BG: But there are villages in Germany

布鲁诺：但是，德国有一些 只有300人居住的村庄，

with 300 inhabitants and 1,000 refugees.

却迁入了1000个难民。

So, what's your position?

您对此是怎么看的？

How do you imagine these people reacting?

您觉得当地居民会作何反应？

AG: If there would be a proper management of the situation

安东尼奥：如果能实施有效的管理措施，

and the proper distribution of people all over Europe,

把难民合理有序地送往欧洲各国，

you would always have the percentage that I mentioned:

难民与当地居民比例将会保持在1:2000。

one per each 2,000.

正是由于管理措施不够合理，

It is because things are not properly managed

that in the end we have situations

我们才陷入了现在这种 令人难以接受的境地。

that are totally impossible to live with, and of course if you have a village --

当然，如果有这样的村庄——

in Lebanon, there are many villages

在黎巴嫩，有许多这样的村庄， 叙利亚人比黎巴嫩人还要多。

that have more Syrians than Lebanese; Lebanon has been living with that.

黎巴嫩也适应了这种情形。

I'm not asking for the same to happen in Europe,

我并不是说同样的情况 也要发生在欧洲，

让所有欧洲的村庄 都接收比当地居民更多的难民。

for all European villages to have more refugees than inhabitants.

What I am asking is for Europe to do the job properly,

我是想让欧洲 以合理的方式承担起它的责任，

and to be able to organize itself to receive people

能够有规划地接收难民，

as other countries in the world were forced to do in the past.

就像此前世界上其他国家所做的那样。

BG: So, if you look at the global situation not only at Europe --

布鲁诺：如果我们看一下全球局势， 而不仅仅是欧洲……

（掌声） 布鲁诺：很好！

(Applause)

（掌声）

BG: Yes!

(Applause)

BG: If you look at the global situation, so, not only at Europe,

布鲁诺：如果我们看一下全球局势， 而不仅仅是欧洲，

I know you can make a long list of countries

会发现许多国家都并无作为，

that are not really stepping up,

but I'm more interested in the other part --

但我更关心与之相对的，

is there somebody who's doing the right thing?

有没有哪些国家做得很好呢？

AG: Well, 86 percent of the refugees in the world

安东尼奥：全世界86%的难民 居住在发展中国家。

are in the developing world.

And if you look at countries like Ethiopia --

某些国家，比如埃塞俄比亚——

Ethiopia has received more than 600,000 refugees.

埃塞俄比亚接收了超过60万难民。

All the borders in Ethiopia are open.

其所有边境都为难民开放。

And they have, as a policy,

埃塞俄比亚有一项名为“人民互助”的政策，

they call the "people to people" policy that every refugee should be received.

规定每一位难民都应该被接纳。

And they have South Sudanese,

那里有来自南苏丹、苏丹、索马里的难民。

they have Sudanese, they have Somalis.

They have all the neighbors.

他们接收来自所有周边国家的难民，

They have Eritreans.

包括厄立特里亚难民。

And, in general,

总体来说，非洲国家对难民非常热情，

African countries are extremely welcoming of refugees coming,

and I would say that in the Middle East

在中东和亚洲，我们也看到了 对难民敞开国门的意愿。

and in Asia, we have seen a tendency for borders to be open.

Now we see some problems with the Syrian situation,

现在，针对叙利亚难民的情况， 有一个特殊问题，

as the Syrian situation evolved into also a major security crisis,

就是其涉及严重的安全危机。

but the truth is that for a large period,

但事实上，有很长一段时间，

all borders in the Middle East were open.

中东各国的边境都是互相开放的。

The truth is that for Afghans,

比如，当时巴基斯坦和伊朗的边境 都为阿富汗人开放，

the borders of Pakistan and Iran were open for, at the time,

six million Afghans that came.

有600万阿富汗人进入这两个国家。

So I would say that even today, the trend in the developing world

所以我想说，即使在今天，

发展中国家也愿意为难民敞开国门。

has been for borders to be open.

The trend in the developed world is for these questions to become

而在发达国家， 这些问题却变得越来越复杂，

more and more complex,

特别是当社会舆论

especially when there is, in the public opinion,

a mixture of discussions between refugee protections on one side

将庇护难民和国家安全问题 混为一谈的时候。

and security questions -- in my opinion, misinterpreted -- on the other side.

我认为这是对国家安全问题的误读。

BG: We'll come back to that too,

布鲁诺：我们一会儿会谈到安全问题。

您刚刚提到世界粮食计划署 物资缩减的情况。

but you mentioned the cutting of funding and the vouchers

from the World Food Programme.

这反映了致力于难民问题的组织 所普遍遇到的资金短缺问题。

That reflects the general underfunding of the organizations

working on these issues.

现在全世界都是开始关注难民问题了，

Now that the world seems to have woken up,

are you getting more funding and more support,

你们是否得到了更多的资助和支援，

or it's still the same?

还是并没有变化？

AG: We are getting more support.

安东尼奥：我们得到了更多的支援。

I would say that we are coming close to the levels of last year.

我相信我们正接近去年的水平。

We were much worse during the summer.

夏天时情况要更糟糕一些。

But that is clearly insufficient to address the needs of the people

但这些显然无法满足难民的需求，

and address the needs of the countries

也无法满足那些接纳难民的国家的需求。

that are supporting the people.

我们在这里简单了解一下

And here we have a basic review of the criteria, the objectives,

一些必要的有关发展合作的 准则、目标和优先权。

the priorities of development cooperation that is required.

For instance, Lebanon and Jordan are middle-income countries.

比如，黎巴嫩和约旦都是中等收入国家。

Because they are middle-income countries,

由于它们是中等收入国家，

they cannot receive soft loans or grants from the World Bank.

所以无法从世界银行 获得软贷款或补助。

Now, today this doesn't make any sense,

但就当下的情况， 这样做并不合理，

because they are providing a global public good.

因为它们在为全球公共利益做贡献。

They have millions of refugees there,

它们接纳了数百万难民，

and to be honest, they are pillars of stability in the region,

说实话，它们是保障区域稳定的柱石，

with all the difficulties they face,

它们为此面对了诸多困难，

and the first line of defense of our collective security.

并且是全球集体安全的第一道防线。

So it doesn't make sense

因此，如果这些国家不能优先享受 发展合作政策的好处，

that these countries are not a first priority

in development cooperation policies.

显然不合情理。

And they are not.

但事实就是 它们没有这种优先权。

And not only do the refugees live in very dramatic circumstances

在这些国家， 不仅难民生活在极端困苦的环境中，

inside those countries,

but the local communities themselves are suffering,

当地居民的生活也十分艰辛，

because salaries went down,

这是由于工资降低，

because there are more unemployed,

由于失业率上升，

because prices and rents went up.

由于物价和租金上涨。

And, of course, if you look at today's situation

如果看一下这些国家 现今的经济指标，

of the indicators in these countries,

it is clear that, especially their poor groups of the population,

不难发现， 当地贫困群体的生活处境愈加艰难，

are living worse and worse because of the crisis they are facing.

这都源自国家所面临的危机。

BG: Who should be providing this support?

布鲁诺：那么该由谁来提供支援呢？

Country by country, international organizations, the European Union?

各国政府，国际组织，还是欧盟？

Who should be coming up with this support?

由谁来提供这些支援呢？

AG: We need to join all efforts.

安东尼奥：我们需要各方共同努力。

很明显，双边合作是必要的，

It's clear that bilateral cooperation is essential.

It's clear that multilateral cooperation is essential.

多边合作也是必要的，

It's clear that international financial institutions should have flexibility

国际金融机构也应该有更灵活的政策，

以便可以向这些国家 提供更多的经济援助。

in order to be able to invest more massively

in support to these countries.

We need to combine all the instruments and to understand that today,

我们需要利用一切手段；

我们需要了解， 这种情况将会长期存在，

in protracted situations, at a certain moment,

所以那种只看眼前，

that it doesn't make sense anymore to make a distinction

将人道主义援助与经济发展援助 割裂开来的做法是不合理的。

between humanitarian aid and development aid

or development processes.

Because you are talking about children in school,

因为这涉及到学校里的孩子，

you are talking about health,

涉及到健康问题，

you are talking about infrastructure that is overcrowded.

涉及到超负荷的基础设施。

You are talking about things that require a long-term perspective,

这些问题都需要 以长期的发展的眼光来看待，

a development perspective

and not only an emergency humanitarian aid perspective.

仅仅从紧急人道主义援助的角度出发 是不够的。

BG: I would like your comment on something

布鲁诺：我想请您对今早报纸上的 这则新闻发表一下意见。

that was in newspapers this morning.

It is a statement made by the current front-runner

这是一段由处于领先地位的 美国共和党总统候选人

for the Republican nomination for US President, Donald Trump.

Yesterday, he said this.

昨天，他这样说道——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

别这样，来听听， 这段话很有趣。

No, listen to this. It's interesting.

I quote: "I am calling for a total and complete shutdown

他说：“我提议全面禁止穆斯林进入美国，

of Muslims entering the US,

until our country's representatives can figure out what's going on."

直到我国的议员们搞清楚 到底发生了什么。”

How do you react to that?

您对此如何回应？

AG: Well, it's not only Donald Trump.

安东尼奥：唐纳德·特朗普并不是特例。

We have seen several people around the world

其他国家的几位政治人物 也曾有过类似的言论，

with political responsibility saying, for instance,

that Muslims refugees should not be received.

“不应该接收穆斯林难民”，诸如此类。

And the reason why they say this

他们之所以这样说，

is because they think that by doing or saying this,

是由于他们认为 这样的说法或做法

they are protecting the security of their countries.

Now, I've been in government.

我曾在政府机构工作过，

I am very keen on the need for governments

我非常理解维护国家和人民安全

to protect the security of their countries

对于政府工作的重要性。

and their people.

But if you say, like that,

但如果你在美国或任何一个欧洲国家 发表这样的言论——

in the US or in any European country,

"We are going to close our doors to Muslim refugees,"

”我们拒绝接收穆斯林难民“，

what you are saying is the best possible help

你所说的话就很有可能 被恐怖组织的宣传所利用。

for the propaganda of terrorist organizations.

Because what you are saying --

因为你所说的——

(Applause)

（掌声）

What you are saying will be heard by all the Muslims in your own country,

你们国家的所有穆斯林 都会听到你的言论，

and it will pave the way for the recruitment

这会为恐怖组织的 招募和其他机制铺平道路。

and the mechanisms that, through technology,

现在，通过科技手段，

Daesh and al-Nusra, al-Qaeda, and all those other groups

达伊沙、努斯拉阵线、 基地组织及其他此类团体

are today penetrating in our societies.

正渗入我们的社会。

And it's just telling them, "You are right, we are against you."

你所说的话就是在告诉他们， ”是的，我们就是反对你们。“

So obviously, this is creating in societies that are all multiethnic,

所以很明显，在一个多种族、 多宗教、多文化的社会里，

multi-religious, multicultural,

this is creating a situation in which, really,

这种言论为恐怖组织的宣传 创造了更为有利的环境，

it is much easier for the propaganda of these terrorist organizations

to be effective in recruiting people for terror acts

使其更容易招募到当地人

within the countries where these kinds of sentences are expressed.

在发表这种言论的国家 实施恐怖袭击。

BG: Have the recent attacks in Paris and the reactions to them

布鲁诺：最近发生在巴黎的恐怖袭击 以及人们对此的反应

made your job more difficult?

有没有增加您工作的难度？

AG: Undoubtedly.

安东尼奥：当然增加了。

BG: In what sense?

布鲁诺：从哪种意义上讲呢？

AG: In the sense that, I mean, for many people the first reaction

安东尼奥：我是指，许多人对此类 恐怖袭击的第一反应就是——关闭边境，

in relation to these kinds of terrorist attacks is: close all borders --

not understanding that the terrorist problem in Europe is largely homegrown.

他们没有意识到欧洲恐怖主义问题 大多是在欧洲内部产生的。

We have thousands and thousands of European fighters in Syria and in Iraq,

在叙利亚和伊拉克， 有成千上万的战士来自欧洲，

所以仅靠拒绝叙利亚人入境 并不能解决问题。

so this is not something that you solve by just not allowing Syrians to come in.

And I must say, I am convinced

而且我必须讲，我确信，

that the passport that appeared,

现场发现的那本护照，

I believe, was put by the person who has blown --

就是那本在引爆炸弹的那个人——

BG: -- himself up, yeah.

布鲁诺：自杀式爆炸袭击者。

AG: [I believe] it was on purpose,

安东尼奥：对，我认为那是故意的，

because part of the strategies of Daesh is against refugees,

因为达伊沙的政策是反难民的，

他们认为这些难民 本该为伊斯兰王权服务，

because they see refugees as people that should be with the caliphate

and are fleeing to the crusaders.

却投奔了改革派穆斯林。

And I think that is part of Daesh's strategy to make Europe react,

那本护照就是达伊沙 在欧洲激起民愤的手段，

closing its doors to Muslim refugees

让欧洲拒绝接收穆斯林难民，

and having an hostility towards Muslims inside Europe,

在欧洲煽动对穆斯林的敌意，

exactly to facilitate Daesh's work.

他们便可坐收渔利。

And my deep belief is that it was not the refugee movement

我深信不疑的是，

并不是难民潮引发了恐怖主义。

that triggered terrorism.

I think, as I said,

正如我刚才所说，

essentially terrorism in Europe is today a homegrown movement

从根本上讲， 欧洲恐怖主义是在内部滋生的，

in relation to the global situation that we are facing,

这和我们当下所面对的国际局势不无关系。

我们应该让这些恐怖团体知道 他们打错算盘了，

and what we need is exactly to prove these groups wrong,

by welcoming and integrating effectively

为此，我们要欢迎 从穆斯林地区来的难民，

those that are coming from that part of the world.

并让他们尽快融入我们的社会。

And another thing that I believe is that to a large extent,

另外，我还认为在很大程度上，

what we are today paying for in Europe

欧洲现在是在为其此前 失败的移民融入政策买单。

is the failures of integration models

that didn't work in the '60s, in the '70s, in the '80s,

在上世纪60、70、80年代，

in relation to big migration flows that took place at that time

曾有过多次大规模的移民潮，

and generated what is today in many of the people, for instance,

当时的政策让许多移民的第二代

of the second generation of communities,

a situation of feeling marginalized,

在今天陷入一种被边缘化的境地，

他们没有工作，

having no jobs,

having improper education,

没有接收良好的教育，

生活在缺乏基础公共设施的社区里。

living in some of the neighborhoods that are not adequately provided

by public infrastructure.

And this kind of uneasiness, sometimes even anger,

第二代移民的这种不安， 甚至是愤怒，

that exists in this second generation

is largely due to the failure of integration policies,

主要是由失败的移民融入政策造成的。

to the failure of what should have been a much stronger investment

政府本应该投入更多力量 为人们创造一个互敬互助的社会环境，

in creating the conditions for people to live together and respect each other.

但却没有做到。

For me it is clear.

我深信——

(Applause)

（掌声）

For me it is clear that all societies will be multiethnic, multicultural,

我深信，未来所有的社会都会是 多种族、多文化、多宗教共存的。

multi-religious in the future.

To try to avoid it is, in my opinion, impossible.

想要避免这种趋势， 在我看来，是不可能的。

And for me it's a good thing that they will be like that,

我觉得这是一件好事，

but I also recognize that, for that to work properly,

但我知道，要想顺利过渡，

you need a huge investment

每个社会都需要投入巨大力量 创造其社会凝聚力

in the social cohesion of your own societies.

And Europe, to a large extent, failed in that investment

而在过去的几十年间，

在很大程度上， 欧洲社会恰恰没有进行这种投入。

in the past few decades.

BG: Question: You are stepping down from your job at the end of the year,

布鲁诺：还有个问题，年末您就要退职了，

after 10 years.

而您担任此职务已有十年之久。

If you look back at 2005,

如果回顾2005年， 您第一次走进办公室的时候，

when you entered that office for the first time, what do you see?

您有何种感想？

AG: Well, look:

安东尼奥：好吧，我们来看，

In 2005, we were helping one million people go back home

2005年，我们帮助了100万人重返家园，

in safety and dignity, because conflicts had ended.

让他们重获安稳和尊严，

因为那一年， 许多地区冲突告一段落。

Last year, we helped 124,000.

去年，我们仅帮助了12万4千人。

In 2005, we had about 38 million people displaced by conflict in the world.

2005年，由于地区冲突而 背井离乡的人大约有3800万，

Today, we have more than 60 million.

今天，有六千多万。

At that time, we had had, recently,

在那个时候，我们解决了一些 当时新近产生的冲突。

some conflicts that were solved.

Now, we see a multiplication of new conflicts

而现在，新的冲突成倍增加，

and the old conflicts never died:

旧有冲突却依然存在，

Afghanistan, Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo.

比如阿富汗问题，索马里问题，刚果问题。

It is clear that the world today is much more dangerous than it was.

很明显，当今世界更为危险。

It is clear that the capacity of the international community

很明显，国际社会预防和 及时解决冲突的能力，

to prevent conflicts and to timely solve them,

is, unfortunately, much worse than what it was 10 years ago.

很遗憾，不及10年前。

There are no clear power relations in the world,

世界上还没有任何明确的权力关系 或全球治理机制起作用，

no global governance mechanisms that work,

which means that we live in a situation

这说明，我们生存的社会 缺乏完善的惩处机制且愈加不可预测，

where impunity and unpredictability tend to prevail, and that means

越来越多的人因此遭受苦难，

that more and more people suffer,

namely those that are displaced by conflicts.

特别是那些因地区冲突而离开家园的人。

BG: It's a tradition in American politics

布鲁诺：美国政治中有一个传统，

that when a President leaves the Oval Office for the last time,

上任总统最后离开总统办公室的时候，

he leaves a handwritten note on the desk for his successor

会在办公桌上 给几个小时后走进办公室的继任者

that walks in a couple of hours later.

留下一张手写的便条。

If you had to write such a note to your successor, Filippo Grandi,

如果让您给您的继任者菲利普·格兰迪 写一张这样的便条，

what would you write?

您会写些什么呢？

AG: Well, I don't think I would write any message.

安东尼奥：我想我什么都不会写。

You know, one of the terrible things when one leaves an office

你知道，离任者总想对继任者的工作指手画脚，

is to try to become the backseat driver,

告诉他们应该怎样做。

always telling the new one what to do.

这不太好。

So that, I will not do.

所以我不会这么做。

If I had to say something to him,

如果让我对他说点儿什么，

it would be, "Be yourself, and do your best."

我会告诉他：“坚守本心，全力以赴。”

BG: Commissioner, thank you for the job you do.

布鲁诺：专员，感谢您所做的工作。

感谢您来TED演讲。

Thank you for coming to TED.

(Applause)

（掌声)