Refugees have the right to be protected | António Guterres

Prevoditelj: Djurdjica Ercegovac Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

Bruno Giussani: Commissioner, thank you for coming to TED.

Bruno Guissani: Povjereniče, hvala na dolasku.

António Guterres: Pleasure.

Antonio Guterres: Zadovoljstvo mi je.

BG: Let's start with a figure.

BG: Započnimo jednom brojkom.

During 2015, almost one million refugees and migrants arrived in Europe

Tijekom 2015. gotovo milijun izbjeglica i migranata pristiglo je u Europu

from many different countries,

iz mnogo različitih zemalja,

of course, from Syria and Iraq, but also from Afghanistan

naravno, iz Sirije i Iraka, ali također iz Afganistana

and Bangladesh and Eritrea and elsewhere.

i Bangladeša i Eritreje i drugih zemalja.

And there have been reactions of two different kinds:

Dvije su različite vrste reakcija:

welcoming parties and border fences.

priredbe dobrodošlice i ograde na granicama.

But I want to look at it a little bit

Ali ja bih se želio na to malo osvrnuti

from the short-term and the long-term perspective.

iz kratkoročne i dugoročne perspektive.

And the first question is very simple:

Prvo pitanje je vrlo jednostavno:

Why has the movement of refugees spiked so fast in the last six months?

Zašto je došlo do naglog povećanja broja izbjeglica u zadnjih šest mjeseci?

AG: Well, I think, basically, what triggered this huge increase

AG: Pa, ja mislim, u osnovi ono što je izazvalo to ogromno povećanje

was the Syrian refugee group.

bila je grupa sirijskih izbjeglica.

There has been an increased movement into Europe from Africa, from Asia,

Postojalo je pojačano kretanje prema Europi iz Afrike, iz Azije,

but slowly growing, and all of a sudden we had this massive increase

no ono je polagano raslo, i odjednom smo imali to masovno povećanje

in the first months of this year.

u prvim mjesecima ove godine.

Why? I think there are three reasons,

Zašto? Mislim da postoje tri razloga,

two long-term ones and the trigger.

dva dugoročna i okidač.

The long-term ones, in relation to Syrians,

Oni dugoročni, u odnosu na Sirijce,

is that hope is less and less clear for people.

su da je za ljude nada sve manje i manje vidljiva.

I mean, they look at their own country

Mislim, oni gledaju vlastitu zemlju

and they don't see much hope to go back home,

i ne vide puno nade da se vrate kući,

because there is no political solution,

zato jer nema političkog rješenja,

so there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

pa nema ni svjetla na kraju tunela.

Second, the living conditions

Drugo, uvjeti života Sirijaca

of the Syrians in the neighboring countries have been deteriorating.

u susjednim zemljama su se pogoršali.

We just had research with the World Bank,

Upravo smo imali istraživanje sa Svjetskom bankom

and 87 percent of the Syrians in Jordan

i 87 posto Sirijaca u Jordanu

and 93 percent of the Syrians in Lebanon

i 93 posto Sirijaca u Libanonu

live below the national poverty lines.

živi ispod nacionalnog praga siromaštva.

Only half of the children go to school,

Samo polovica djece ide u školu,

which means that people are living very badly.

što znači da ljudi žive vrlo loše.

Not only are they refugees, out of home,

Ne samo da su izbjeglice, izvan svog doma,

not only have they suffered what they have suffered,

ne samo da su pretrpjeli ono što su pretrpjeli,

but they are living in very, very dramatic conditions.

već žive u vrlo, vrlo dramatičnim uvjetima.

And then the trigger was when all of a sudden,

A okidač je bio kada se odjednom

international aid decreased.

međunarodna pomoć smanjila.

The World Food Programme was forced, for lack of resources,

Svjetski program za hranu bio je prisiljen, zbog nedostatka sredstava,

to cut by 30 percent food support to the Syrian refugees.

za 30 posto srezati pomoć u hrani za sirijske izbjeglice.

They're not allowed to work,

Njima nije dozvoljeno da rade

so they are totally dependent on international support,

pa su potpuno ovisni o međunarodnoj pomoći

and they felt, "The world is abandoning us."

i osjećali su, "Svijet nas napušta."

And that, in my opinion, was the trigger.

I to je, po mom mišljenju, bio okidač.

All of a sudden, there was a rush,

Odjednom je nastala jurnjava

and people started to move in large numbers

i ljudi su se počeli kretati u velikom broju

and, to be absolutely honest,

i, da budem potpuno pošten,

if I had been in the same situation

da sam ja bio u istoj situaciji

and I would have been brave enough to do it,

i da sam imao dovoljno hrabrosti da to učinim,

I think I would have done the same.

mislim da bih učinio isto.

BG: But I think what surprised many people is it's not only sudden,

BG: Mislim da je mnoge iznenadilo ne samo što je to bilo naglo

but it wasn't supposed to be sudden.

nego što nije trebalo biti naglo.

The war in Syria has been happening for five years.

Rat u Siriji traje pet godina.

Millions of refugees are in camps and villages and towns around Syria.

Milijuni izbjeglica su u kampovima i selima i gradovima oko Sirije.

You have yourself warned about the situation

Vi ste sami upozorili na situaciju

and about the consequences of a breakdown of Libya, for example,

i na posljedice sloma Libije, na primjer,

and yet Europe looked totally unprepared.

a ipak je Europa izgledala posve nespremna.

AG: Well, unprepared because divided,

AG: Pa, nespremna jer je bila podijeljena,

and when you are divided, you don't want to recognize the reality.

a kada ste podijeljeni, ne želite priznati realnost.

You prefer to postpone decisions,

Radije odlažete odluke

because you do not have the capacity to make them.

jer nemate sposobnost da ih donesete.

And the proof is that even when the spike occurred,

A dokaz je da čak kada se vrhunac dogodio,

Europe remained divided

Europa je ostala podijeljena

and was unable to put in place a mechanism to manage the situation.

i nesposobna da uspostavi mehanizam za upravljanje situacijom.

You talk about one million people.

Vi govorite o milijun ljudi.

It looks enormous,

To izgleda enormno,

but the population of the European Union is 550 million people,

ali stanovništvo Europske unije broji 550 milijuna ljudi,

which means we are talking about one per every [550] Europeans.

što znači da govorimo o jednom na svakih 2.000 Europljana.

Now, in Lebanon, we have one refugee per three Lebanese.

U Libanonu imamo jednog izbjeglicu na tri Libanonca

And Lebanon? Struggling, of course, but it's managing.

A Libanon? Muči se, naravno, ali uspijeva.

So, the question is: is this something that could have been managed

Dakle, pitanje je: je li ovo nešto čime se moglo upravljati

if -- not mentioning the most important thing,

da -- ne spominjući najvažniiju stvar,

which would have been addressing the root causes,

koja bi bila rješavanje temeljnih uzroka,

but forgetting about root causes for now,

no zaboravimo zasada temeljne uzroke,

looking at the phenomenon as it is --

gledajući na pojavu samu po sebi --

if Europe were able to come together in solidarity

da je Europa bila sposobna solidarno se udružiti

to create an adequate reception capacity of entry points?

u stvaranju adekvatnog kapaciteta za prihvat na ulaznim točkama?

But for that, the countries at entry points need to be massively supported,

No, za to, ulazne zemlje trebaju ogromnu podršku,

and then screening the people with security checks

i onda provjera ljudi sigurnosnim kontrolama

and all the other mechanisms,

i svi drugi mehanizmi,

distributing those that are coming into all European countries,

distribucija onih koji dolaze u sve europske zemlje,

according to the possibilities of each country.

u skladu s mogućnostima svake zemlje.

I mean, if you look at the relocation program

Mislim, ako pogledate program relokacije

that was approved by the Commission, always too little too late,

koji je odobrila Komisija, uvijek premalo i prekasno,

or by the Council, too little too late --

ili Vijeće, premalo i prekasno --

BG: It's already breaking down.

BG: To se već raspada.

AG: My country is supposed to receive four thousand.

AG: Moja zemlja bi trebala primiti četiri tisuće.

Four thousand in Portugal means nothing.

Četiri tisuće u Portugalu ne znači ništa.

So this is perfectly manageable if it is managed,

To je savršeno izvedivo ako se provodi,

but in the present circumstances, the pressure is at the point of entry,

no u sadašnjoj situaciji pritisak je na ulazu,

and then, as people move in this chaotic way through the Balkans,

i onda, krećući se na ovaj kaotičan način kroz Balkan,

then they come to Germany, Sweden, basically, and Austria.

onda dolaze u Njemačku, Švedsku, prvenstveno, i Austriju.

They are the three countries that are, in the end, receiving the refugees.

To su tri zemlje koje, na kraju, primaju izbjeglice.

The rest of Europe is looking without doing much.

Ostatak Europe promatra ne čineći mnogo.

BG: Let me try to bring up three questions,

BG: Dopustite mi da pokušam postaviti tri pitanja,

playing a bit devil's advocate.

igrajući se pomalo đavoljeg odvjetnika.

I'll try to ask them, make them blunt.

Pokušat ću ih postaviti otvoreno.

But I think the questions are very present

Iako mislim da su pitanja jako prisutna

in the minds of many people in Europe right now,

u mislima mnogih u Europi ovoga časa.

The first, of course, is about numbers.

Prvo se, naravno, odnosi na brojke.

You say 550 million versus one million is not much, but realistically,

Vi kažete da 550 milijuna prema milijun nije mnogo,

how many people can Europe take?

no, realno, koliko ljudi može Europa podnijeti?

AG: Well, that is a question that has no answer,

AG: Pa, to je pitanje na koje nema odgovora,

because refugees have the right to be protected.

jer izbjeglice imaju pravo da budu zaštićene.

And there is such a thing as international law,

A postoji i nešto kao međunarodni zakon,

so there is no way you can say, "I take 10,000 and that's finished."

pa ni na koji način ne možete reći, "Uzet ću 10.000 i to je kraj."

I remind you of one thing:

Podsjećam vas na jednu stvar:

in Turkey, at the beginning of the crisis, I remember one minister saying,

u Turskoj na početku ove krize sjećam se jednog ministra koji je rekao,

"Turkey will be able to receive up to 100,000 people."

"Turska će biti sposobna primiti do 100.000 ljudi."

Turkey has now two million three-hundred thousand

Turska ih danas ima dva milijuna i tristo tisuća, ili tu negdje,

or something of the sort, if you count all refugees.

ako računate sve izbjeglice.

So I don't think it's fair to say how many we can take.

Zato mislim da nije u redu reći koliko ih možemo primiti.

What it is fair to say is: how we can we organize ourselves

Ono šte je u redu reći jest: kako se možemo organizirati

to assume our international responsibilities?

da bismo preuzeli svoje međunarodne odgovornosti?

And Europe has not been able to do so,

A Europa nije bila sposobna to učiniti

because basically, Europe is divided because there is no solidarity

jer, u osnovi, Europa je podijeljena jer nema solidarnosti

in the European project.

u Europskom projektu.

And it's not only about refugees; there are many other areas.

I nije to samo u vezi izbjeglica; postoje i mnoga druga područja.

And let's be honest, this is the moment in which we need more Europe

I budimo iskreni, ovo je trenutak u kojem trebamo više Europe

instead of less Europe.

umjesto manje Europe.

But as the public less and less believes in European institutions,

No, kako javnost sve manje vjeruje u europske institucije,

it is also each time more difficult to convince the public

tako je svaki puta sve teže uvjeriti javnost

that we need more Europe to solve these problems.

da trebamo više Europe za rješavanje ovih problema.

BG: We seem to be at the point

BG: Izgleda da smo u točki

where the numbers turn into political shifts, particularly domestically.

gdje se brojevi pretvaraju u političke preokrete, pogotovo unutarnje.

We saw it again this weekend in France,

Vidjeli smo to ponovo ovaj vikend u Francuskoj,

but we have seen it over and over in many countries:

no viđali smo to mnogo puta u mnogo drugih zemalja:

in Poland and in Denmark and in Switzerland and elsewhere,

U Poljskoj i u Danskoj i u Švicarskoj i drugdje,

where the mood changes radically because of the numbers,

gdje se raspoloženje radikalno mijenja zbog brojeva,

although they are not very significant in absolute numbers.

iako oni nisu značajni u apsolutnim brojevima.

The Prime Minister of --

Premijer --

AG: But, if I may, on these:

AG: Ali, ako mogu, u vezi toga:

I mean, what does a European see at home

Mislim, što Europa vidi kod kuće

in a village where there are no migrants?

u selu gdje nema migranata?

What a European sees is, on television,

Ono što Europa vidi je, na televiziji

every single day, a few months ago, opening the news every single day,

svaki dan, prije nekoliko mjeseci, u udarnim vijestima svaki dan,

a crowd coming, uncontrolled,

gomila dolazi, nekontrolirano,

moving from border to border,

krećući se od granice do granice,

and the images on television were of hundreds

a slike na televiziji prikazuju stotine

or thousands of people moving.

ili tisuće ljudi u pokretu.

And the idea is that nobody is taking care of it --

I pomisao je da nitko o tome ne vodi računa --

this is happening without any kind of management.

to se događa bez ikakvog nadzora.

And so their idea was, "They are coming to my village."

I tako je njihova predodžba bila, "Oni dolaze u moje selo."

So there was this completely false idea that Europe was being invaded

Dakle, postojala je ta potpuno pogrešna predodžba da je Europa napadnuta

and our way of life is going to change, and everything will --

i naš način života će se promijeniti, i sve će --

And the problem is that if this had been properly managed,

A problem je, da se ovime pravilno upravljalo,

if people had been properly received,

da su ljudi bili primjereno primljeni, dočekani dobrodošlicom,

welcomed, sheltered at point of entry, screened at point of entry,

zbrinuti na ulazu, provjereni na ulazu,

and the moved by plane to different European countries,

i onda prebačeni avionom u različite europske zemlje,

this would not have scared people.

to ne bi uplašilo ljude.

But, unfortunately, we have a lot of people scared,

No, nažalost, mi smo uplašili mnoge ljude,

just because Europe was not able to do the job properly.

samo zato jer Europa nije bila u stanju pravilno obaviti posao.

BG: But there are villages in Germany

BG: Ali ima sela u Njemačkoj

with 300 inhabitants and 1,000 refugees.

s 300 stanovnika i 1.000 izbjeglica.

So, what's your position?

Što vi o tome mislite?

How do you imagine these people reacting?

Kako zamišljate reakciju tih ljudi?

AG: If there would be a proper management of the situation

AG: Kada bi se pravilno upravljalo situacijom

and the proper distribution of people all over Europe,

i primjereno distribuiralo ljude diljem Europe,

you would always have the percentage that I mentioned:

uvijek biste imali postotak koji sam spomenuo

one per each 2,000.

jedan na svakih 2.000.

It is because things are not properly managed

Upravo zbog toga što stvari nisu pravilno vođene

that in the end we have situations

na kraju imamo situacije

that are totally impossible to live with, and of course if you have a village --

s kojima je sasvim nemoguće živjeti, i naravno da ako imate selo --

in Lebanon, there are many villages

u Libanonu ima mnogo sela

that have more Syrians than Lebanese; Lebanon has been living with that.

u kojima je više Sirijaca nego Libanonaca; Libanon s tim živi.

I'm not asking for the same to happen in Europe,

Ja ne tražim da se isto dogodi u Europi,

for all European villages to have more refugees than inhabitants.

da sva europska sela imaju više izbjeglica nego stanovnika.

What I am asking is for Europe to do the job properly,

Ono što tražim je da Europa ispravno obavi posao,

and to be able to organize itself to receive people

i da je sposobna organizirati se za prijem ljudi

as other countries in the world were forced to do in the past.

kao što su to bile prisiljene činiti druge zemlje u prošlosti.

BG: So, if you look at the global situation not only at Europe --

BG: Dakle, ako pogledate globalnu situaciju ne samo u Europi --

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

BG: Yes!

BG: Da!

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

BG: If you look at the global situation, so, not only at Europe,

BG: Ako pogledate globalnu situaciju, ne samo u Europi,

I know you can make a long list of countries

znam da bi mogli navesti dugačku listu zemalja

that are not really stepping up,

koje zaista ne preuzimaju odgovornost,

but I'm more interested in the other part --

no više me zanima drugi dio --

is there somebody who's doing the right thing?

postoji li netko tko radi pravu stvar?

AG: Well, 86 percent of the refugees in the world

AG: Pa, 86 posto izbjeglica u svijetu

are in the developing world.

nalazi se u zemljama u razvoju.

And if you look at countries like Ethiopia --

I ako pogledate zemlje poput Etiopije --

Ethiopia has received more than 600,000 refugees.

Etiopija je primila više od 600.000 izbjeglica.

All the borders in Ethiopia are open.

Sve granice Etiopije su otvorene.

And they have, as a policy,

I oni imaju, kao strategiju,

they call the "people to people" policy that every refugee should be received.

koju zovu strategija "ljudi za ljude", da svaki izbjeglica mora biti primljen.

And they have South Sudanese,

I imaju izbjeglice iz Južnog Sudana,

they have Sudanese, they have Somalis.

iz Sudana, iz Somalije.

They have all the neighbors.

Imaju sve susjede.

They have Eritreans.

Imaju Eritrejce.

And, in general,

I, općenito,

African countries are extremely welcoming of refugees coming,

afričke zemlje su izuzetno susretljive prema izbjeglicama,

and I would say that in the Middle East

i rekao bih da smo na Srednjem istoku

and in Asia, we have seen a tendency for borders to be open.

i u Aziji vidjeli tendenciju otvaranja granica.

Now we see some problems with the Syrian situation,

Sada nailazimo na neke probleme sa sirijskom situacijom,

as the Syrian situation evolved into also a major security crisis,

kako se sirijska situacija razvila u vodeću sigurnosnu krizu,

but the truth is that for a large period,

no istina je da su kroz dugi period

all borders in the Middle East were open.

sve granice na Srednjem istoku bile otvorene.

The truth is that for Afghans,

Istina je da su za Afganistance

the borders of Pakistan and Iran were open for, at the time,

granice Pakistana i Irana bile otvorene za, u datom trenutku,

six million Afghans that came.

šest milijuna Afganistanaca koji su došli.

So I would say that even today, the trend in the developing world

Rekao bih da čak i danas u zemljama u razvoju

has been for borders to be open.

postoji trend otvorenih granica.

The trend in the developed world is for these questions to become

Trend u razvijenom svijetu je da ta pitanja postaju

more and more complex,

sve složenija,

especially when there is, in the public opinion,

posebno kada postoje, po mišljenju javnosti,

a mixture of discussions between refugee protections on one side

različite rasprave o pitanjima zaštite izbjeglica, s jedne strane,

and security questions -- in my opinion, misinterpreted -- on the other side.

i pitanjima sigurnosti -- po mom mišljenju pogrešno prikazanim -- na drugoj strani.

BG: We'll come back to that too,

BG: Vratit ćemo se na to,

but you mentioned the cutting of funding and the vouchers

no vi ste spomenuli rezanje financiranja i vaučera

from the World Food Programme.

Svjetskog programa za hranu.

That reflects the general underfunding of the organizations

To odražava opće nedovoljno financiranje organizacija

working on these issues.

koje rade na tim problemima.

Now that the world seems to have woken up,

Sada kada se svijet izgleda probudio,

are you getting more funding and more support,

dobivate li više sredstava i više podrške,

or it's still the same?

ili je to još uvijek isto?

AG: We are getting more support.

AG: Dobivamo veću podršku.

I would say that we are coming close to the levels of last year.

Rekao bih da sustižemo razine od prošle godine.

We were much worse during the summer.

Bilo nam je mnogo gore tijekom ljeta.

But that is clearly insufficient to address the needs of the people

No to je još uvijek očito nedovoljno za zadovoljenje potreba ljudi

and address the needs of the countries

i potreba zemalja

that are supporting the people.

koje pomažu tim ljudima.

And here we have a basic review of the criteria, the objectives,

A ovdje imamo osnovni pregled kriterija, ciljeva,

the priorities of development cooperation that is required.

prioriteta za razvoj suradnje.

For instance, Lebanon and Jordan are middle-income countries.

Na primjer, Libanon i Jordan su zemlje sa srednje visokim prihodom.

Because they are middle-income countries,

Zbog toga što su zemlje srednjeg prihoda

they cannot receive soft loans or grants from the World Bank.

ne mogu dobiti povoljne kredite ili potpore od Svjetske banke.

Now, today this doesn't make any sense,

To danas nema nikakvog smisla

because they are providing a global public good.

jer oni se brinu za globalno javno dobro.

They have millions of refugees there,

Oni tamo imaju milijune izbjeglica,

and to be honest, they are pillars of stability in the region,

i budimo pošteni, oni su stupovi stabilnosti u regiji,

with all the difficulties they face,

sa svim teškoćama s kojima se suočavaju,

and the first line of defense of our collective security.

i prva linija obrane naše kolektivne sigurnosti.

So it doesn't make sense

Zato nema smisla

that these countries are not a first priority

da te zemlje nemaju prvenstvo

in development cooperation policies.

u razvoju politika suradnje.

And they are not.

A nemaju.

And not only do the refugees live in very dramatic circumstances

I ne samo da izbjeglice žive u vrlo dramatičnim uvjetima

inside those countries,

unutar tih zemalja

but the local communities themselves are suffering,

nego i same lokalne zajednice trpe

because salaries went down,

zato jer dohodak pada

because there are more unemployed,

zato jer je više nezaposlenih,

because prices and rents went up.

zato jer su cijene i stanarine porasle.

And, of course, if you look at today's situation

I naravno, ako pogledate današnju situaciju

of the indicators in these countries,

pokazatelja u tim zemljama

it is clear that, especially their poor groups of the population,

jasno je da, posebno siromašni dijelovi njihove populacije,

are living worse and worse because of the crisis they are facing.

žive sve gore i gore zbog krize s kojom su suočeni.

BG: Who should be providing this support?

BG: Tko bi trebao osigurati tu podršku?

Country by country, international organizations, the European Union?

Zemlja po zemlja, međunarodne organizacije, Europska unija?

Who should be coming up with this support?

Tko bi trebao pružiti tu podršku?

AG: We need to join all efforts.

AG: Mi moramo udružiti sva nastojanja.

It's clear that bilateral cooperation is essential.

Jasno je da je bilateralna suradnja ključna.

It's clear that multilateral cooperation is essential.

Jasno je daje multilateralna suradnja ključna.

It's clear that international financial institutions should have flexibility

Jasno je da bi međunarodne financijske institucije morale biti fleksibilne

in order to be able to invest more massively

kako bi mogle obimnije financirati

in support to these countries.

i pomoći tim zemljama.

We need to combine all the instruments and to understand that today,

Mi bismo trebali kombinirati sve instrumente i razumijeti da danas,

in protracted situations, at a certain moment,

u dugotrajnim situacijama, u određenom trenutku,

that it doesn't make sense anymore to make a distinction

više nema smisla raditi razliku

between humanitarian aid and development aid

između humanitarne pomoći i pomoći za razvoj

or development processes.

ili razvojne procese.

Because you are talking about children in school,

Zbog toga što govorite o djeci u školi,

you are talking about health,

govorite o zdravlju,

you are talking about infrastructure that is overcrowded.

govorite o infrastrukturi koja je preopterećena.

You are talking about things that require a long-term perspective,

Vi govorite o stvarima koje zahtijevaju dugoročnu perspektivu,

a development perspective

razvojnu perspektivu,

and not only an emergency humanitarian aid perspective.

a ne samo perspektivu hitne humanitarne pomoći.

BG: I would like your comment on something

BG: Želio bih komentirati nešto

that was in newspapers this morning.

što je jutros bilo u novinama.

It is a statement made by the current front-runner

To je izjava trenutno vodećeg kandidata

for the Republican nomination for US President, Donald Trump.

za nominaciju Republikanske stranke za predsjednika SAD-a, Donalda Trumpa.

Yesterday, he said this.

Jučer je rekao ovo.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

No, listen to this. It's interesting.

Ne, slušajte ovo. Zanimljivo je.

I quote: "I am calling for a total and complete shutdown

Citiram: "Ja tražim totalnu i potpunu zabranu ulaza

of Muslims entering the US,

u SAD za sve Muslimane,

until our country's representatives can figure out what's going on."

sve dok predstavnici naše zemlje ne ustanove što se događa."

How do you react to that?

Što kažete na to?

AG: Well, it's not only Donald Trump.

AG: Pa, nije to samo Donald Trump.

We have seen several people around the world

Vidjeli smo nekoliko ljudi diljem svijeta

with political responsibility saying, for instance,

s političkom odgovornošću koji kažu, na primjer,

that Muslims refugees should not be received.

da izbjeglice Muslimane ne bi trebalo primati.

And the reason why they say this

A razlog zbog kojeg to kažu je

is because they think that by doing or saying this,

što misle da čineći ili govoreći to

they are protecting the security of their countries.

štite sigurnost svojih zemalja.

Now, I've been in government.

Ja sam bio u vladi.

I am very keen on the need for governments

Podupirem potrebu vlada da štite

to protect the security of their countries

sigurnost svojih zemalja

and their people.

i svojih naroda.

But if you say, like that,

No, ako na ovaj način kažete

in the US or in any European country,

u SAD-u ili bilo kojoj europskoj zemlji,

"We are going to close our doors to Muslim refugees,"

"Zatvorit ćemo svoja vrata za izbjeglice Muslimane,"

what you are saying is the best possible help

to što govorite najbolja je moguća pomoć

for the propaganda of terrorist organizations.

propagandi terorističkih organizacija.

Because what you are saying --

Jer ono što vi govorite --

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

What you are saying will be heard by all the Muslims in your own country,

Ono što govorite čuti će svi Muslimani u vašoj vlastitoj zemlji

and it will pave the way for the recruitment

i to će utrti put za regrutiranje

and the mechanisms that, through technology,

i mehanizme kojima, putem tehnologije,

Daesh and al-Nusra, al-Qaeda, and all those other groups

Daesh i al-Nusra, al-Qaeda i sve te druge grupe

are today penetrating in our societies.

danas prodiru u naša društva.

And it's just telling them, "You are right, we are against you."

A to im upravo govori, "U pravu ste, mi smo protiv vas."

So obviously, this is creating in societies that are all multiethnic,

Dakle očito je da to u društvima koja su sva multietnička

multi-religious, multicultural,

multi-religijska, multikulturalna,

this is creating a situation in which, really,

stvara situaciju u kojoj je zapravo

it is much easier for the propaganda of these terrorist organizations

puno lakše za propagandu tih terorističkih organizacija

to be effective in recruiting people for terror acts

da bude učinkovita u regrutiranju ljudi za teroristička djela

within the countries where these kinds of sentences are expressed.

unutar zemalja u kojima se izjavljuju ovakve rečenice.

BG: Have the recent attacks in Paris and the reactions to them

BG: Jesu li nedavni napadi u Parizu i reakcije na njih

made your job more difficult?

otežale vaš posao?

AG: Undoubtedly.

AG: Nesumnjivo.

BG: In what sense?

BG: U kojem smislu?

AG: In the sense that, I mean, for many people the first reaction

AG: U smislu da, hoću reći, za mnoge ljude prva reakcija

in relation to these kinds of terrorist attacks is: close all borders --

u vezi ovakvih terorističkih napada je: zatvorite sve granice --

not understanding that the terrorist problem in Europe is largely homegrown.

ne shvaćajući da je problem terorizma u Europi uglavnom "domaći".

We have thousands and thousands of European fighters in Syria and in Iraq,

Mi imamo tisuće i tisuće europskih boraca u Siriji i Iraku,

so this is not something that you solve by just not allowing Syrians to come in.

dakle to nije nešto što ćete riješiti samo zabranom ulaza Sirijcima.

And I must say, I am convinced

I moram reći, uvjeren sam

that the passport that appeared,

da je putovnicu koja se pojavila,

I believe, was put by the person who has blown --

vjerujem, podmetnula osoba koja je dignula u zrak --

BG: -- himself up, yeah.

BG: -- sebe samog, da.

AG: [I believe] it was on purpose,

AG: [Vjerujem] da je to bilo namjerno

because part of the strategies of Daesh is against refugees,

jer dio strategije Daesha je protiv izbjeglica,

because they see refugees as people that should be with the caliphate

zato jer oni izbjeglice vide kao ljude koji bi trebali biti uz kalifat,

and are fleeing to the crusaders.

a traže utočište kod križara.

And I think that is part of Daesh's strategy to make Europe react,

I mislim da je dio strategije Daesha da Europu prisili da reagira

closing its doors to Muslim refugees

zatvarajući svoja vrata izbjeglicama Muslimanima

and having an hostility towards Muslims inside Europe,

i gajeći neprijateljstvo prema Muslimanima unutar Europe,

exactly to facilitate Daesh's work.

upravo kako bi se olakšao rad Daesha.

And my deep belief is that it was not the refugee movement

I moje duboko uvjerenje je da pokret izbjeglica nije bio taj

that triggered terrorism.

koji je izazvao terorizam.

I think, as I said,

Ja mislim, kao što sam rekao,

essentially terrorism in Europe is today a homegrown movement

u osnovi, terorizam u Europi je danas "domaći" pokret

in relation to the global situation that we are facing,

u vezi globalne situacije s kojom se suočavamo,

and what we need is exactly to prove these groups wrong,

a ono što trebamo upravo je dokazati da te grupe nisu u pravu

by welcoming and integrating effectively

prihvaćajući i učinkovito integrirajući

those that are coming from that part of the world.

one koji dolaze iz tog dijela svijeta.

And another thing that I believe is that to a large extent,

I još jedna stvar koju vjerujem jest da u velikoj mjeri

what we are today paying for in Europe

ono za što danas plaćamo u Europi

is the failures of integration models

jesu neuspjesi integracijskih modela

that didn't work in the '60s, in the '70s, in the '80s,

koji nisu funkcionirali u 60-ima, u 70-ima, u 80-ima,

in relation to big migration flows that took place at that time

u odnosu na velike migracijske tokove koji su se tada događali

and generated what is today in many of the people, for instance,

i stvorili ono što je danas kod mnogih ljudi, na primjer,

of the second generation of communities,

druge generacije zajednica,

a situation of feeling marginalized,

situacija da se osjećaju marginalizirani,

having no jobs,

nemajući posla,

having improper education,

nemajući primjereno obrazovanje,

living in some of the neighborhoods that are not adequately provided

živeći u nekim od kvartova koji nisu adekvatno opskrbljeni

by public infrastructure.

javnom infrastrukturom.

And this kind of uneasiness, sometimes even anger,

I ta vrsta tjeskobe, ponekad čak i bijesa,

that exists in this second generation

koja postoji kod te druge generacije

is largely due to the failure of integration policies,

uglavnom je posljedica neuspjeha integracijske politike,

to the failure of what should have been a much stronger investment

neuspjeha nečega što je trebalo biti puno jača investicija

in creating the conditions for people to live together and respect each other.

u stvaranje uvjeta za ljude da žive zajedno i poštuju jedni druge.

For me it is clear.

Po meni je to jasno.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

For me it is clear that all societies will be multiethnic, multicultural,

Po meni je jasno da će sve zajednice biti multietničke, multikulturalne,

multi-religious in the future.

multi-religijske u budućnosti.

To try to avoid it is, in my opinion, impossible.

Pokušavati to izbjeći, po mom mišljenju, nemoguće je.

And for me it's a good thing that they will be like that,

I za mene je to dobra stvar da će biti takve,

but I also recognize that, for that to work properly,

no ja također priznajem, da bi to dobro funkcioniralo

you need a huge investment

potrebna vam je ogromna investicija

in the social cohesion of your own societies.

u socijalnu koheziju vaših vlastitih zajednica.

And Europe, to a large extent, failed in that investment

A Europa je, u velikoj mjeri, podbacila u toj investiciji

in the past few decades.

u zadnjih nekoliko desetljeća.

BG: Question: You are stepping down from your job at the end of the year,

BG: Pitanje: Krajem godine vi napuštate svoj posao,

after 10 years.

nakon 10 godina.

If you look back at 2005,

Ako pogledate unatrag na 2005.-u,

when you entered that office for the first time, what do you see?

kada ste ušli u taj ured po prvi puta, što vidite?

AG: Well, look:

AG: Pa, gledajte:

In 2005, we were helping one million people go back home

U 2005.-oj mi smo pomagali milijunu ljudi da se vrate domovima

in safety and dignity, because conflicts had ended.

u sigurnosti i dostojanstvu jer su sukobi završili.

Last year, we helped 124,000.

Prošle godine smo pomogli 124.000.

In 2005, we had about 38 million people displaced by conflict in the world.

U 2005.-oj imali smo oko 38 milijuna raseljenih zbog sukoba u svijetu.

Today, we have more than 60 million.

Danas ih imamo više od 60 milijuna.

At that time, we had had, recently,

U to vrijeme smo bili imali, nedavno,

some conflicts that were solved.

neke sukobe koji su riješeni.

Now, we see a multiplication of new conflicts

Sada vidimo množenje novih sukoba,

and the old conflicts never died:

a stari sukobi nikada nisu ugašeni:

Afghanistan, Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo.

Afganistan, Somalija, Demokratska Republika Kongo.

It is clear that the world today is much more dangerous than it was.

Jasno je da je svijet danas mnogo opasniji no što je bio.

It is clear that the capacity of the international community

Jasno je da je kapacitet međunarodne zajednice

to prevent conflicts and to timely solve them,

za sprečavanje sukoba i njihovo pravovremeno rješavanje,

is, unfortunately, much worse than what it was 10 years ago.

nažalost, mnogo slabiji no što je bio prije 10 godina.

There are no clear power relations in the world,

Ne postoje jasni odnosi snaga u svijetu,

no global governance mechanisms that work,

nema globalnih vladajućih mehanizama koji funkcioniraju,

which means that we live in a situation

što znači da živimo u situaciji

where impunity and unpredictability tend to prevail, and that means

u kojoj prevladavaju nekažnjavanje i nepredvidivost,

that more and more people suffer,

a to znači da sve više ljudi trpi,

namely those that are displaced by conflicts.

napose oni koji su raseljeni zbog sukoba.

BG: It's a tradition in American politics

BG: Tradicija je u američkoj politici

that when a President leaves the Oval Office for the last time,

da kada Predsjednik napušta Ovalni ured zadnji puta,

he leaves a handwritten note on the desk for his successor

na stolu ostavlja rukom pisanu poruku za svog nasljednika

that walks in a couple of hours later.

koji ulazi nekoliko sati kasnije.

If you had to write such a note to your successor, Filippo Grandi,

Kada biste morali napisati takvu poruku svom nasljedniku,

what would you write?

Fillipu Grandiju, što biste napisali?

AG: Well, I don't think I would write any message.

AG: Pa, mislim da ne bih pisao nikakvu poruku.

You know, one of the terrible things when one leaves an office

Znate, jedna od groznih stvari kada netko napušta ured

is to try to become the backseat driver,

je da pokušava postati suvozač,

always telling the new one what to do.

stalno govoreći novome što da radi.

So that, I will not do.

Zato ja to neću raditi.

If I had to say something to him,

Kada bih mu imao nešto za reći,

it would be, "Be yourself, and do your best."

to bi bilo, "Budi svoj i radi najbolje što znaš."

BG: Commissioner, thank you for the job you do.

BG: Povjereniče, hvala vam za posao koji radite.

Thank you for coming to TED.

Hvala što ste došli na TED.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)