Abundance is our future | Peter Diamandis

翻译人员: Boyang Zhu 校对人员: Aili Huang

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

(Video) Announcer: Threats, in the wake of Bin Laden's death, have spiked.

（视频）播音员：在本拉登被击毙后，恐怖威胁数量激增。

Announcer Two: Famine in Somalia. Announcer Three: Police pepper spray.

播音员2：索马里出现饥荒。播音员3：警察使用胡椒喷雾。

Announcer Four: Vicious cartels. Announcer Five: Caustic cruise lines.

播音员4：凶恶的毒枭。播音员5：破裂的游轮。

Announcer Six: Societal decay. Announcer Seven: 65 dead.

播音员6：社会风气败坏。播音员7：65人死亡。

Announcer Eight: Tsunami warning. Announcer Nine: Cyberattacks.

播音员8：海啸警告。播音员9：网络攻击。

Multiple Announcers: Drug war. Mass destruction. Tornado.

多位播音员：毒品战争、大规模破坏、飓风、

Recession. Default. Doomsday. Egypt. Syria.

经济衰退、违约、末日、埃及、叙利亚、

Crisis. Death. Disaster.

危机、死亡、灾难。

Oh, my God.

哦我的天哪！

Peter Diamandis: So those are just a few of the clips

彼得迪曼蒂斯：这是我在过去6个月里

I collected over the last six months --

收集的一些视频。

could have easily been the last six days

如果是在6天，或者过去6年里

or the last six years.

也可以轻易收集到类似的片段。

The point is that the news media

重点是新闻媒体倾向于

preferentially feeds us negative stories

向我们灌输负面信息。

because that's what our minds pay attention to.

因为我们的大脑特别容易关注这些。

And there's a very good reason for that.

当然大脑这样做是有很重要的理由。

Every second of every day,

每时每刻，

our senses bring in way too much data

我们的“传感器”收集大量的信息

than we can possibly process in our brains.

多到我们的大脑处理不过来。

And because nothing is more important to us

而其中没有比与生存相关的信息

than survival,

更重要的。

the first stop of all of that data

所有信息输入的第一站就是

is an ancient sliver of the temporal lobe

颞叶上一个叫做大脑扁桃体的

called the amygdala.

非常原始的部分。

Now the amygdala is our early warning detector,

大脑扁桃体是我们的早期预警侦测器，

our danger detector.

危险探测仪。

It sorts and scours through all of the information

它将所有信息分类并仔细查阅，

looking for anything in the environment that might harm us.

探测环境中任何可能的威胁。

So given a dozen news stories,

所以每当我们打开报纸，

we will preferentially look

就会不自觉地阅读

at the negative news.

各种负面信息。

And that old newspaper saying,

那个过去有关报纸的说法：

"If it bleeds it leads,"

”流血事件必上头条。“

is very true.

其实是很有道理的。

So given all of our digital devices

而现在我们有各种数字化设备，

that are bringing all the negative news to us

无时无刻地向我们

seven days a week, 24 hours a day,

输送各种负面新闻。

it's no wonder that we're pessimistic.

难怪大家这么容易悲观。

It's no wonder that people think

难怪人们觉得

that the world is getting worse.

世界在倒退。

But perhaps that's not the case.

但事实或许

Perhaps instead,

并不是这样，

it's the distortions brought to us

我们所接受的信息

of what's really going on.

是被扭曲的。

Perhaps the tremendous progress we've made

我们的社会在上世纪

over the last century

一系列事件的影响下

by a series of forces

所经历的巨大的进步

are, in fact, accelerating to a point

正在不断加速，

that we have the potential in the next three decades

事实上，这样的速度令我们在未来三十年中，

to create a world of abundance.

拥有创造一个富足的世界的可能性。

Now I'm not saying

我并不是说

we don't have our set of problems --

这些问题不存在－

climate crisis, species extinction,

气候危机，物种灭绝，

water and energy shortage -- we surely do.

水资源和能源短缺的情况都确实发生了。

And as humans, we are far better

作为人类，我们太擅长对

at seeing the problems way in advance,

危机做出各种预估，

but ultimately we knock them down.

但最终我们会消除它们。

So let's look

让我们来回顾下

at what this last century has been

上个世纪发生了什么，

to see where we're going.

来了解我们正向着什么方向在前进。

Over the last hundred years,

过去的几百年里，

the average human lifespan has more than doubled,

人类的平均寿命增加了2倍以上，

average per capita income adjusted for inflation

经过通货膨胀调整计算，全世界的人均收入

around the world has tripled.

增加了3倍。

Childhood mortality

婴儿死亡率

has come down a factor of 10.

下降了10倍。

Add to that the cost of food, electricity,

食品、用电、交通、

transportation, communication

通信的成本

have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold.

下降了10倍到1000倍不等。

Steve Pinker has showed us

史蒂夫平克为我们指出,

that, in fact, we're living during the most peaceful time ever

我们正生活在人类历史上

in human history.

最和平的时代。

And Charles Kenny

还有查尔斯·肯尼提到

that global literacy has gone from 25 percent to over 80 percent

世界范围的识字率在过去的130年里从25％

in the last 130 years.

上升到了80％。

We truly are living in an extraordinary time.

我们确实生活在一个伟大的时代。

And many people forget this.

然而许多人忘记了这点。

And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher.

我们不断地把期望越定越高。

In fact, we redefine what poverty means.

事实上，我们已经更改了“贫穷”的涵义。

Think of this, in America today,

想一下，在今天的美国

the majority of people under the poverty line

大部分生活在贫困线下的人

still have electricity, water, toilets, refrigerators,

仍然拥有电力，饮用水，厕所，冰箱，

television, mobile phones,

电视，行动电话，

air conditioning and cars.

空调和汽车。

The wealthiest robber barons of the last century, the emperors on this planet,

上世纪最富有的强盗大亨，这个星球上的帝王们，

could have never dreamed of such luxuries.

永远都想象不到这样的奢侈生活。

Underpinning much of this

而这一切的基础

is technology,

是科技。

and of late,

和近代

exponentially growing technologies.

指数式增长的科技。

My good friend Ray Kurzweil

我的好朋友雷·库兹威尔

showed that any tool that becomes an information technology

展示了任何信息科技的工具

jumps on this curve, on Moore's Law,

都遵从这条曲线，即摩尔定律。

and experiences price performance doubling

并经历每12到24个月

every 12 to 24 months.

性价比翻一倍的增长。

That's why the cellphone in your pocket

这就是为什么你口袋里的行动电话

is literally a million times cheaper and a thousand times faster

相比70年代的超级电脑要便宜

than a supercomputer of the '70s.

100万倍，而且还要快上1000倍

Now look at this curve.

再看这个曲线。

This is Moore's Law over the last hundred years.

这是过去几百年里的摩尔定律。

I want you to notice two things from this curve.

我想要大家注意这曲线所体现的2件事

Number one, how smooth it is --

第一，它非常的平滑－

through good time and bad time, war time and peace time,

无论时代是好是坏，无论战争或和平，

recession, depression and boom time.

经济衰退或增长。

This is the result of faster computers

这是因为更快的电脑被用来制造

being used to build faster computers.

更更快的电脑所产生的结果。

It doesn't slow for any of our grand challenges.

它不会因为我们面临的巨大挑战所延缓。

And also, even though it's plotted

尽管在左边

on a log curve on the left,

呈现出对数曲线

it's curving upwards.

它也是仍然是向上弯曲。

The rate at which the technology is getting faster

科技前进加速的本身

is itself getting faster.

也在不断变快。

And on this curve, riding on Moore's Law,

在这摩尔定律的曲线上，

are a set of extraordinarily powerful technologies

是一系列对所有人都开放

available to all of us.

的强大的科技。

Cloud computing,

云计算，

what my friends at Autodesk call infinite computing;

我在Autodesk公司的朋友称之为无限计算；

sensors and networks; robotics;

传感器和网络，机器人；

3D printing, which is the ability to democratize and distribute

3D打印，让我们获得在全世界范围普及和部署

personalized production around the planet;

个性化生产的能力；

synthetic biology;

人造生命；

fuels, vaccines and foods;

带来新的燃料，疫苗和食物；

digital medicine; nanomaterials; and A.I.

数字化医药；纳米材料和人工智能。

I mean, how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy

观众中多少人看到了IBM的Watson超级电脑在

by IBM's Watson?

Jeopardy智力竞赛的获胜？

I mean, that was epic.

那真是太伟大了。

In fact, I scoured the headlines

我查看各种报纸的新闻头条

looking for the best headline in a newspaper I could.

找到我觉得最好的

And I love this: "Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents."

我喜欢这句：”Watson征服人类对手。“

Jeopardy's not an easy game.

Jeopardy不是个容易的比赛。

It's about the nuance of human language.

获胜关键在于理解人类语言中的微妙细节。

And imagine if you would

你可以想象一下

A.I.'s like this on the cloud

像这样的人工智能存在于云计算中

available to every person with a cellphone.

所有拥有行动电话的人都可以使用的景象。

Four years ago here at TED,

四年前在TED,

Ray Kurzweil and I started a new university

雷·库兹威尔和我创立了一所新的大学

called Singularity University.

叫做“Singularity University”。

And we teach our students all of these technologies,

我们教给学生各种科技

and particularly how they can be used

特别是如何利用这些科技

to solve humanity's grand challenges.

来解决人类面临的巨大挑战。

And every year we ask them

每一年我们都要求学生

to start a company or a product or a service

创立一件公司或制作一种产品或者提供一项服务

that can affect positively the lives of a billion people

能在十年内对十亿人的生活产生

within a decade.

积极而实际的影响。

Think about that, the fact that, literally, a group of students

想象一下一群学生

can touch the lives of a billion people today.

今天可以影响到十亿人的生活。

30 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous.

30年前这听起来非常可笑。

Today we can point at dozens of companies

今天我们可以列举出几十间

that have done just that.

有这样成就的公司。

When I think about creating abundance,

当我想到创造富足社会，

it's not about creating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet;

并不是要为地球上的每一个人创造奢华的生活；

it's about creating a life of possibility.

而是创造充满可能性的生活。

It is about taking that which was scarce

是把原先稀缺的资源

and making it abundant.

变得充沛

You see, scarcity is contextual,

稀缺性是相对的，

and technology is a resource-liberating force.

而科技是一股解放资源的力量。

Let me give you an example.

我来举一个例子。

So this is a story of Napoleon III

这是一个拿破仑三世的故事

in the mid-1800s.

在1800到1810年中期。

He's the dude on the left.

他是左边这位

He invited over to dinner

邀请了泰王

the king of Siam.

共进晚餐。

All of Napoleon's troops

所有拿破仑的士兵

were fed with silver utensils,

使用银器用餐，

Napoleon himself with gold utensils.

拿破仑自己则使用金器。

But the King of Siam,

但是泰国国王

he was fed with aluminum utensils.

使用铝制的餐具。

You see, aluminum

铝

was the most valuable metal on the planet,

曾经是世界上最贵重的金属，

worth more than gold and platinum.

比黄金和白金还要昂贵。

It's the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument

这就是为什么华盛顿纪念碑的

is made of aluminum.

顶端是铝制的。

You see, even though aluminum

即使铝占了地球

is 8.3 percent of the Earth by mass,

总重量的8.3%。

it doesn't come as a pure metal.

但它不是以纯金属的形态存在。

It's all bound by oxygen and silicates.

它都是和氧或者硅酸结合。

But then the technology of electrolysis came along

但是随后出现了电解技术

and literally made aluminum so cheap

使得铝的价格如此低廉

that we use it with throw-away mentality.

以致我们就把铝制品当一次性用品般看待。

So let's project this analogy going forward.

让我们把这个比喻应用到其他方面，

We think about energy scarcity.

让我们想一想能源短缺。

Ladies and gentlemen,

女士们先生们，

we are on a planet

我们生活的这个星球上

that is bathed with 5,000 times more energy

接收着相当于我们年平均能源消耗

than we use in a year.

5000多倍的能量。

16 terawatts of energy hits the Earth's surface

每88分钟有16太瓦的能源

every 88 minutes.

投向地球表面。

It's not about being scarce,

问题并不是能源稀缺，

it's about accessibility.

而是可及性。

And there's good news here.

现在有几个好消息，

For the first time, this year

今年是有史以来第一次

the cost of solar-generated electricity

在印度，太阳能发电的成本降低至

is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity in India --

化石燃料发电成本的一半--

8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees.

8.8卢布相比较17卢布。

The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year.

去年太阳能发电的成本降低了一半

Last month, MIT put out a study

上个月，MIT发布了一个研究报告

showing that by the end of this decade,

显示到2020年

in the sunny parts of the United States,

在美国阳光充足的地区，

solar electricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour

太阳能电力费用会降至6美分一千瓦／小时

compared to 15 cents

相比较全国平均

as a national average.

标准是15美分。

And if we have abundant energy,

如果我们有充足的能源，

we also have abundant water.

也就会有丰富的洁净水。

Now we talk about water wars.

下面我们来聊下水的战争。

Do you remember

还记得吗？

when Carl Sagan turned the Voyager spacecraft

1990年，Carl Saga在航海者太空飞船

back towards the Earth,

经过土星的时候，

in 1990 after it just passed Saturn?

调转其方向面对地球。

He took a famous photo. What was it called?

拍下了一幅著名的照片，叫什么名字？

"A Pale Blue Dot."

”淡蓝色的小点。“

Because we live on a water planet.

因为我们生活在一颗"水行星"上

We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water.

地球表面70％被水覆盖

Yes, 97.5 percent is saltwater,

是的，97.5％是海水

two percent is ice,

2%是冰山，

and we fight over a half a percent of the water on this planet,

我们则在争夺世界上1.5%的水资源，

but here too there is hope.

但我们仍然有希望。

And there is technology coming online,

有一项科技正准备投入应用，

not 10, 20 years from now,

并不是未来的10年20年以后，

right now.

就是现在。

There's nanotechnology coming on, nanomaterials.

有一种纳米科技。

And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning,

今天早上我和一个伟大的DIY

one of the great DIY innovators,

发明家Dean Kamen聊天。

I'd like to share with you -- he gave me permission to do so --

我想要和大家分享－我得到了他的允许－

his technology called Slingshot

他开发的技术叫做“弹弓”

that many of you may have heard of,

在座的一些朋友可能听说过，

it is the size of a small dorm room refrigerator.

它是一个小房间一般大的冰箱，

It's able to generate

每天可以从

a thousand liters of clean drinking water a day

任何水源中－海水，污染水，公共厕所－

out of any source -- saltwater, polluted water, latrine --

生产出一千公升的洁净饮用水。

at less than two cents a liter.

每公升的成本低于2美分。

The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed

可口可乐的主席最近授意

to do a major test

在多个发展中国家对

of hundreds of units of this in the developing world.

数百台“弹弓”进行大规模测试。

And if that pans out,

如果测试成功，

which I have every confidence it will,

我很有信心它会成功，

Coca-Cola will deploy this globally

可口可乐将会在全球206个国家

to 206 countries

对该设备

around the planet.

进行部署。

This is the kind of innovation, empowered by this technology,

这就是当下已经存在的由科技

that exists today.

驱动的创新。

And we've seen this in cellphones.

我们在移动电话上看到这点。

My goodness, we're going to hit 70 percent penetration

我的天哪，在2013年底，发展中国家的

of cellphones in the developing world

移动电话渗透率将

by the end of 2013.

达到70％。

Think about it,

想象一下。

that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in the middle of Kenya

在肯尼亚中部的一个马赛士兵

has better mobile comm

拥有的比25年前的里根总统

than President Reagan did 25 years ago.

更好的移动通讯。

And if they're on a smartphone on Google,

如果他们使用智能手机访问Google,

they've got access to more knowledge and information

他们将得到比克林顿总统15年前

than President Clinton did 15 years ago.

所得到的更多的知识和信息。

They're living in a world of information and communication abundance

他们生活在一个信息和通讯富足的世界

that no one could have ever predicted.

这在过去没人能预测到的。

Better than that,

还有更棒的，

the things that you and I

我们花费了

spent tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for --

成千上百美金所获得的－

GPS, HD video and still images,

GPS，高清电视和

libraries of books and music,

图形图像，

medical diagnostic technology --

以及医疗诊断技术－

are now literally dematerializing and demonetizing

被非物质化并非商业化

into your cellphone.

输入到你的行动电话中。

Probably the best part of it

这其中最好的

is what's coming down the pike in health.

部分或许是医疗。

Last month, I had the pleasure of announcing with Qualcomm Foundation

上个月我很荣幸和高通基金共同宣布

something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize.

1000万美金高通手持移动分析仪X大赛。

We're challenging teams around the world

我们向全世界的团队发出挑战

to basically combine these technologies

来将这些科技

into a mobile device

组合进移动设备。

that you can speak to, because it's got A.I.,

你可以向它说话，因为它拥有人工智能

you can cough on it, you can do a finger blood prick.

也可以对着它咳嗽，或者扎手指验血。

And to win, it needs to be able to diagnose you better

要赢得竞赛，这个设备需要能为你提供比一组

than a team of board-certified doctors.

经过委员会验证的医师更好的诊断。

So literally, imagine this device

想象这个设备

in the middle of the developing world where there are no doctors,

应用在缺少医师，25％的疾病负担

25 percent of the disease burden

仅有1.3%的医疗人员

and 1.3 percent of the health care workers.

的发展中国家。

When this device sequences an RNA or DNA virus

如果这个设备对病毒的RNA或者DNA进行测序后

that it doesn't recognize,

无法识别，

it calls the CDC

它会呼叫疾病控制中心

and prevents the pandemic from happening in the first place.

第一时间防止大规模疫情的爆发。

But here, here is the biggest force

还有最能创造

for bringing about a world of abundance.

富足的世界的力量。

I call it the rising billion.

我称之为“崛起的十亿人”。

So the white lines here are population.

这道白线代表人口。

We just passed the seven billion mark on Earth.

地球上的人口最近超过了70亿。

And by the way,

顺便提一下，

the biggest protection against a population explosion

防止人口爆炸性增长的最好方法就是

is making the world educated

让全世界人接受更多教育

and healthy.

变得更健康。

In 2010,

在2010年，

we had just short of two billion people

我们有接近20亿的人

online, connected.

与网络连接。

By 2020,

到2020年，

that's going from two billion to five billion

英特网用户将会从20亿

Internet users.

增长到50亿。

Three billion new minds

30亿未曾

who have never been heard from before

被注意的新用户。

are connecting to the global conversation.

将参与到这全球的对话中来。

What will these people want?

他们想要什么？

What will they consume? What will they desire?

他们将会消费什么？他们的愿望是什么？

And rather than having economic shutdown,

我们将迎来的是最大的，

we're about to have the biggest economic injection ever.

是经济活力的注入而不是衰退。

These people represent

这些人代表着

tens of trillions of dollars

几十万亿美元的消费力

injected into the global economy.

将会注入全球经济体。

And they will get healthier

他们会因为使用手持移动分析仪

by using the Tricorder,

而更健康，

and they'll become better educated by using the Khan Academy,

也会因为观看Khan Academy变得更有聪慧，

and by literally being able to use

随着3D打印和无限计算

3D printing and infinite computing

的普及而变得比以往

[become] more productive than ever before.

任何时代都更有生产力。

So what could three billion rising,

30亿健康，接受教育，

healthy, educated, productive members of humanity

富有生产力的人类社会成员

bring to us?

能为我们带来什么？

How about a set of voices that have never been heard from before.

一系列我们从未接触过的新思维。

What about giving the oppressed,

还有给予受到压制的，

wherever they might be,

或者其他困难的

the voice to be heard and the voice to act

人们首次获得受到关注

for the first time ever?

和帮助的机会。

What will these three billion people bring?

这30亿人会带来什么？

What about contributions we can't even predict?

或许是我们都还未能预见的贡献？

The one thing I've learned at the X Prize

我在筹办X大赛的过程中体会到的一点是

is that small teams

目标清晰，富有激情的

driven by their passion with a clear focus

小型团队就能取得

can do extraordinary things,

卓越的成就，

things that large corporations and governments

在过去只有大企业和政府

could only do in the past.

才能做到的事情。

Let me share and close with a story

让我来分享一个故事作为结尾，

that really got me excited.

这个故事让我非常兴奋。

There is a program that some of you might have heard of.

在座的有一些可能听说过这个项目。

It's a game called Foldit.

是一个叫做Foldit的游戏。

It came out of the University of Washington in Seattle.

它来自西雅图的华盛顿大学。

And this is a game

它是一个

where individuals can actually take a sequence of amino acids

能让个人获取一个氨基酸序列，

and figure out how the protein is going to fold.

并分析出其中的蛋白质是如何折叠的。

And how it folds dictates its structure and its functionality.

其折叠的方式决定了该氨基酸的结构和功能。

And it's very important for research in medicine.

这是非常重要的医学研究。

And up until now, it's been a supercomputer problem.

直到目前，这都还是一个由超级电脑来处理的问题。

And this game has been played

这个游戏起先

by university professors and so forth.

是给大学教授玩。

And it's literally, hundreds of thousands of people

然后成百上千的人也上线

came online and started playing it.

开始玩这个游戏。

And it showed that, in fact, today,

它也展示出时至今日，

the human pattern recognition machinery

人类的模式辨识机能

is better at folding proteins than the best computers.

仍然要比最好的电脑都要强。

And when these individuals went and looked

当大家排列出最好的

at who was the best protein folder in the world,

蛋白质折叠专家时，

it wasn't an MIT professor,

并不是MIT的教授，

it wasn't a CalTech student,

也不是加州理工学院的学生，

it was a person from England, from Manchester,

而是一位来自曼彻斯特的英国女性。

a woman who, during the day,

白天在一家康复治疗整所

was an executive assistant at a rehab clinic

行政助理的工作，

and, at night, was the world's best protein folder.

而夜晚也是全世界最好的蛋白质折叠专家。

Ladies and gentlemen,

女士们先生们

what gives me tremendous confidence

给予我对未来

in the future

巨大信心的，

is the fact that we are now more empowered as individuals

是我们每一位作为个人都被赋予

to take on the grand challenges of this planet.

挑战全世界面临的难题的能力。

We have the tools with this exponential technology.

我们拥有快速发展的科技和工具，

We have the passion of the DIY innovator.

也有DIY发明家的激情。

We have the capital of the techno-philanthropist.

大家都有能力成为技术－慈善家。

And we have three billion new minds

同时还有30亿新的用户

coming online to work with us

来到线上与我们合作

to solve the grand challenges,

一起解决巨大的挑战，

to do that which we must do.

做到我们必须要做的事情。

We are living into extraordinary decades ahead.

我们正要迎来卓越的几十年。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）