Abundance is our future | Peter Diamandis

Translator: Shelley Krishna Tsang Reviewer: Sylvia He

(Applause)

（掌聲）

(Video) Announcer: Threats, in the wake of Bin Laden's death, have spiked.

（賓拉登死後，威脅層出不窮。）

Announcer Two: Famine in Somalia. Announcer Three: Police pepper spray.

（索馬利亞嘅飢荒。） （警方用嘅胡椒噴霧。）

Announcer Four: Vicious cartels. Announcer Five: Caustic cruise lines.

（企業使用惡意壟斷。） （遊船上嘅混亂。）

Announcer Six: Societal decay. Announcer Seven: 65 dead.

（社會嘅腐敗。） （六十五人死亡。）

Announcer Eight: Tsunami warning. Announcer Nine: Cyberattacks.

（海嘯警報。） （網路上嘅駭客攻擊。）

Multiple Announcers: Drug war. Mass destruction. Tornado.

（毒品罪行。） （大規模毀滅。龍捲風。）

Recession. Default. Doomsday. Egypt. Syria.

（經濟衰退。債務拖欠。 世界末日。埃及。敘利亞。）

Crisis. Death. Disaster.

（危機。死亡。災難。）

Oh, my God.

「喔！我嘅天啊！」

Peter Diamandis: So those are just a few of the clips

呢啲新聞頭條只係我喺過去六個月

I collected over the last six months --

收集到嘅一小部分

could have easily been the last six days

同過去六日嘅頭條

or the last six years.

或者過去六年嘅頭條冇咩差別

The point is that the news media

重點係，新聞媒體

preferentially feeds us negative stories

鐘意報導負面新聞

because that's what our minds pay attention to.

因為呢類新聞可以吸引我哋關注

And there's a very good reason for that.

理由係

Every second of every day,

每日

our senses bring in way too much data

我哋接收嘅資訊

than we can possibly process in our brains.

超過我哋大腦負荷

And because nothing is more important to us

對我哋嚟講

than survival,

冇嘢比生存更加重要

the first stop of all of that data

我哋嘅大腦接收信息嘅第一站

is an ancient sliver of the temporal lobe

係一片發現已久嘅

called the amygdala.

叫做「扁桃體」嘅腦葉

Now the amygdala is our early warning detector,

扁桃體係我哋身體最初期嘅

our danger detector.

警告同危險偵測系統

It sorts and scours through all of the information

佢搜尋同整理所有訊息

looking for anything in the environment that might harm us.

揾出喺環境裡邊對我哋有害嘅物質

So given a dozen news stories,

所以喺眾多嘅新聞裡邊

we will preferentially look

我哋會鍾意睇

at the negative news.

負面嘅新聞

And that old newspaper saying,

有一份舊報紙寫話：

"If it bleeds it leads,"

「有血嘅嘢最好賣。」

is very true.

呢句嘢好啱

So given all of our digital devices

宜家各種數碼設備

that are bringing all the negative news to us

一個禮拜七日、一日 24 小時

seven days a week, 24 hours a day,

猛咁對我哋輸啲負面新聞

it's no wonder that we're pessimistic.

唔怪得我哋咁悲觀

It's no wonder that people think

難怪啲人諗

that the world is getting worse.

世界越來越冇希望

But perhaps that's not the case.

事實上可能唔係噉

Perhaps instead,

其實，有可能係

it's the distortions brought to us

媒體帶畀我哋嘅消息

of what's really going on.

係扭曲咗嘅

Perhaps the tremendous progress we've made

可能我哋喺上個世紀

over the last century

藉一連串努力

by a series of forces

而創造嘅進步

are, in fact, accelerating to a point

加速到一個位

that we have the potential in the next three decades

使我哋喺未來三十年有潛力

to create a world of abundance.

去創造一個富足嘅世界

Now I'm not saying

我唔係話

we don't have our set of problems --

我哋冇問題

climate crisis, species extinction,

氣候危機、物種滅絕、水源同能源匱乏

water and energy shortage -- we surely do.

呢哋問題都一直存在

And as humans, we are far better

身為人類，我哋比其他動物

at seeing the problems way in advance,

早睇到問題好多

but ultimately we knock them down.

然後我哋解決呢哋問題

So let's look

我哋睇下

at what this last century has been

上個世紀到底發生咗咩事

to see where we're going.

同我哋下一步會去邊到

Over the last hundred years,

過去百幾年嚟

the average human lifespan has more than doubled,

人類嘅平均壽命係以前嘅兩倍

average per capita income adjusted for inflation

通貨膨脹調整之後 嘅各國平均國民所得

around the world has tripled.

係以前嘅三倍

Childhood mortality

童年嘅死亡率

has come down a factor of 10.

都下降到原來嘅十分之一

Add to that the cost of food, electricity,

仲有，糧食、電能、

transportation, communication

交通、通訊嘅花費

have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold.

變成以前嘅十分之一到千分之一

Steve Pinker has showed us

史迪芬．平克話俾我哋聽

that, in fact, we're living during the most peaceful time ever

宜家係

in human history.

人類史上最和平嘅時代

And Charles Kenny

Charles Kenny 話

that global literacy has gone from 25 percent to over 80 percent

過去 130 年，全球識字率

in the last 130 years.

從 25% 升到 80%

We truly are living in an extraordinary time.

我哋宜家生活喺一個黃金時期

And many people forget this.

但係好多人都唔記得呢樣嘢

And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher.

我哋不斷噉將期望設得越來越高

In fact, we redefine what poverty means.

事實上，我哋重寫咗貧窮嘅定義

Think of this, in America today,

諗下宜家嘅美國

the majority of people under the poverty line

喺貧窮線以下嘅大多數人

still have electricity, water, toilets, refrigerators,

都仲擁有水、電、馬桶、冰箱

television, mobile phones,

電視、手機

air conditioning and cars.

甚至冷氣同車

The wealthiest robber barons of the last century, the emperors on this planet,

上個世紀最富有嘅強盜、貴族、國王

could have never dreamed of such luxuries.

都冇呢啲奢侈品

Underpinning much of this

令呢種現象出現

is technology,

全靠以前嘅科技

and of late,

以至最近嘅

exponentially growing technologies.

幾何級數發展嘅科技

My good friend Ray Kurzweil

我嘅好朋友 Ray Kurzweil 畫咗一幅圖

showed that any tool that becomes an information technology

說明只要物件變成資訊科技工具

jumps on this curve, on Moore's Law,

就會按著摩爾定律嘅曲線

and experiences price performance doubling

每一至兩年

every 12 to 24 months.

性能就會翻倍

That's why the cellphone in your pocket

咁就係點解你哋衫袋裡邊嘅手機

is literally a million times cheaper and a thousand times faster

比起 70 年代嘅超級電腦

than a supercomputer of the '70s.

仲要平咗一百萬倍 同快咗一千倍

Now look at this curve.

睇下呢個曲線

This is Moore's Law over the last hundred years.

呢個係一百幾年前嘅摩爾定律

I want you to notice two things from this curve.

留意下呢條曲線上嘅兩樣嘢

Number one, how smooth it is --

第一，條曲綫好平穩

through good time and bad time, war time and peace time,

唔受時期嘅好壞，或者戰爭同和平

recession, depression and boom time.

經濟衰退、低迷或者繁榮嘅影響

This is the result of faster computers

個結果就係速度快嘅電腦

being used to build faster computers.

用來造更快嘅電腦

It doesn't slow for any of our grand challenges.

電腦冇因爲任何我哋面對嘅問題而慢咗

And also, even though it's plotted

雖然曲線圖採用咗

on a log curve on the left,

對數曲線

it's curving upwards.

佢嘅方向係向上嘅

The rate at which the technology is getting faster

即係，科技進步嘅比率

is itself getting faster.

越來越快

And on this curve, riding on Moore's Law,

喺呢條摩爾定律曲線上邊

are a set of extraordinarily powerful technologies

係一連串可供我哋利用嘅

available to all of us.

強大而先進嘅科技

Cloud computing,

我喺 Autodesk 嘅朋友

what my friends at Autodesk call infinite computing;

叫雲端運算做無限運算

sensors and networks; robotics;

感應器。網路。自動化設備

3D printing, which is the ability to democratize and distribute

3D 印刷有可能喺全球將產品

personalized production around the planet;

大眾化同人性化

synthetic biology;

人造生物學

fuels, vaccines and foods;

燃料、疫苗同食物

digital medicine; nanomaterials; and A.I.

數位醫學。納米材料。人工智慧

I mean, how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy

在座有幾多人睇到 IBM 沃森

by IBM's Watson?

喺《危險邊緣》贏通街？

I mean, that was epic.

嗰次個節目真係好經典

In fact, I scoured the headlines

我摷勻好多報紙

looking for the best headline in a newspaper I could.

想揾個最好嘅頭條

And I love this: "Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents."

我好鐘意呢個：《沃森擊敗人類對手》

Jeopardy's not an easy game.

《危險邊緣》呢個比賽好難

It's about the nuance of human language.

字眼上差小小，答案就唔一樣

And imagine if you would

想像一下

A.I.'s like this on the cloud

呢種雲端嘅人工智慧

available to every person with a cellphone.

喺人人嘅手機度都有

Four years ago here at TED,

四年前喺 TED

Ray Kurzweil and I started a new university

Ray Kurzweil 同我創辦咗

called Singularity University.

一間叫「奇點大學」嘅新大學

And we teach our students all of these technologies,

我哋向學生傳授呢啲全部嘅科技

尤其係點樣用嚟

and particularly how they can be used

解決人類面對嘅巨大挑戰

to solve humanity's grand challenges.

And every year we ask them

每一年， 我哋要求佢哋

to start a company or a product or a service

開新公司、開發新產品或者新服務

that can affect positively the lives of a billion people

希望喺十年內

within a decade.

幫助到十億人

Think about that, the fact that, literally, a group of students

試諗下，呢班學生真係

can touch the lives of a billion people today.

可以幫到十億人

30 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous.

呢種諗法喺 30 年前係幾荒唐

Today we can point at dozens of companies

宜家我哋可以講出邊間公司

that have done just that.

喺度做緊呢件事

When I think about creating abundance,

對我來講，創造富足嘅社會

it's not about creating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet;

唔係話要世界上 每個人都享受奢華生活

it's about creating a life of possibility.

而係要創造出生活嘅可能性

係要使我哋缺乏嘅嘢

It is about taking that which was scarce

and making it abundant.

變得豐富

You see, scarcity is contextual,

每個人缺乏嘅嘢唔同

and technology is a resource-liberating force.

而科技係一個解放資源嘅力量

Let me give you an example.

我舉個例

So this is a story of Napoleon III

呢個係十八世紀中葉

in the mid-1800s.

關於拿破崙三世嘅故事

He's the dude on the left.

佢就係左邊嗰個人

He invited over to dinner

佢邀請暹羅國王

the king of Siam.

共進晚餐

All of Napoleon's troops

were fed with silver utensils,

拿破崙嘅成個軍隊

用銀製餐具

Napoleon himself with gold utensils.

拿破崙自己就用金製餐具

But the King of Siam,

但係暹羅國王

he was fed with aluminum utensils.

用嘅竟然係鋁製餐具

You see, aluminum

原來

was the most valuable metal on the planet,

鋁曾經係世上最貴嘅金屬

worth more than gold and platinum.

甚至貴過黃金同埋白金

It's the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument

咁就係點解華盛頓紀念碑嘅頂端

is made of aluminum.

係由鋁所製成

You see, even though aluminum

雖然鋁嘅礦量

is 8.3 percent of the Earth by mass,

佔地球質量嘅 8.3%

it doesn't come as a pure metal.

但係金屬鋁好罕見 鋁多數喺礦物裡邊

It's all bound by oxygen and silicates.

佢多數同氧或者矽酸鹽 反應生成化合物

But then the technology of electrolysis came along

有咗電解科技之後

and literally made aluminum so cheap

提煉鋁就變得好平

that we use it with throw-away mentality.

平到用完就掟

So let's project this analogy going forward.

如此類推

We think about energy scarcity.

我哋試諗下能源缺乏

Ladies and gentlemen,

we are on a planet

各位

我哋生活緊嘅地球，係一個

that is bathed with 5,000 times more energy

擁有我哋一年用嘅能源

than we use in a year.

5,000 倍嘅星球

16 terawatts of energy hits the Earth's surface

每 88 分鐘就有 16 兆瓦嘅能源

every 88 minutes.

來到地球嘅表面

It's not about being scarce,

所以問題唔係缺乏

it's about accessibility.

而係獲取能源嘅途徑

And there's good news here.

有個好消息

For the first time, this year

今年係印度有史以來第一次

the cost of solar-generated electricity

太陽能發電嘅花費

is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity in India --

係柴油發電嘅一半

8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees.

8.8 盧比對 17 盧比

The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year.

舊年太陽能發電花費就降咗一半

Last month, MIT put out a study

上個月麻省理工學院發表咗一項研究

showing that by the end of this decade,

話喺 2020 年之前

in the sunny parts of the United States,

美國陽光充足嘅地區

solar electricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour

太陽能電嘅平均價格

compared to 15 cents

會降到 6 仙美金一度

宜家平均一度要 1 毫 5 仙美元

as a national average.

And if we have abundant energy,

我哋有咗充足嘅能源

we also have abundant water.

我哋就會有充足嘅水源

Now we talk about water wars.

我哋來講下水源嘅戰爭

Do you remember

你記唔記得

when Carl Sagan turned the Voyager spacecraft

1990 年 無人探測船航海家 1 號

back towards the Earth,

飛過土星之後

卡爾．薩根叫探測船擰轉身 同太陽系影張全家福

in 1990 after it just passed Saturn?

He took a famous photo. What was it called?

嗰張相好出名，叫咩？

"A Pale Blue Dot."

《蒼藍小點》

Because we live on a water planet.

我哋住喺一個水星球

We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water.

一個 70% 嘅表面俾水覆蓋嘅星球

Yes, 97.5 percent is saltwater,

其中 97.5% 係鹹水

two percent is ice,

and we fight over a half a percent of the water on this planet,

2% 係冰

我哋喺度爭地球上 0.5% 嘅水

but here too there is hope.

天無絕人之路

And there is technology coming online,

有一個新科技出現咗

not 10, 20 years from now,

唔係喺十、二十年後

right now.

係宜家

There's nanotechnology coming on, nanomaterials.

納米科技同納米材料誕生咗

And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning,

我今朝同 Dean Kamen 傾偈

one of the great DIY innovators,

佢係一個偉大嘅 DIY 發明家

I'd like to share with you -- he gave me permission to do so --

佢畀我同你哋分享

his technology called Slingshot

佢嘅發明︰「Slingshot」

that many of you may have heard of,

可能好多人都聽過

it is the size of a small dorm room refrigerator.

佢係一個宿舍用嘅冰箱噉大

It's able to generate

佢可以

a thousand liters of clean drinking water a day

每日淨化一千升嘅水

out of any source -- saltwater, polluted water, latrine --

咩水都可以淨化 鹹水、污染水、廁所污水

at less than two cents a liter.

而且成本低於一升 2 仙美元

The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed

可口可樂董事長啱啱批准咗

to do a major test

一個大規模嘅實驗

of hundreds of units of this in the developing world.

喺發展中國家試用幾百套呢種設備

And if that pans out,

如果成功——

which I have every confidence it will,

當然我有信心佢會成功

Coca-Cola will deploy this globally

可口可樂公司就會

to 206 countries

將呢個計畫推廣至

全球 206 個國家

around the planet.

This is the kind of innovation, empowered by this technology,

呢種創新就係

that exists today.

現代科技帶來嘅

And we've seen this in cellphones.

手機就係表表者

My goodness, we're going to hit 70 percent penetration

天啊，喺 2013 之前

of cellphones in the developing world

手機喺開發中國家嘅使用率

by the end of 2013.

就嚟達到 70%

Think about it,

試諗下

that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in the middle of Kenya

一個肯尼亞馬賽族戰士用嘅手機

has better mobile comm

比 25 年前雷根總統在位時

than President Reagan did 25 years ago.

用嘅通訊產品仲要好

And if they're on a smartphone on Google,

they've got access to more knowledge and information

如果佢哋用谷歌嘅智能手機

than President Clinton did 15 years ago.

佢哋就比 15 年前克林頓總統在位時

接收到更多嘅知識同資訊

They're living in a world of information and communication abundance

佢哋生活喺一個 資訊同通訊都充足嘅世界

that no one could have ever predicted.

冇人原本預料到嘅

Better than that,

更好嘅係

the things that you and I

以前花費

好幾十萬美金嘅嘢：

spent tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for --

GPS, HD video and still images,

GPS、高畫質影片、靜止圖像

libraries of books and music,

書庫、音樂庫

medical diagnostic technology --

醫療診斷科技

are now literally dematerializing and demonetizing

宜家都漸漸融入

into your cellphone.

你哋嘅手機度

而最好嘅係

Probably the best part of it

醫療成本會下降

is what's coming down the pike in health.

Last month, I had the pleasure of announcing with Qualcomm Foundation

上個月我好榮幸同高通基金會一齊宣布

something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize.

高通 Tricorder X 大獎

We're challenging teams around the world

我哋向全球嘅參賽者提出挑戰

to basically combine these technologies

into a mobile device

要求將呢啲全部功能

融合入一個移動設備度

that you can speak to, because it's got A.I.,

佢要有人工智慧，令你可以同佢講嘢

you can cough on it, you can do a finger blood prick.

你可以對佢咳或者做手指血液採樣

And to win, it needs to be able to diagnose you better

要贏得呢個獎，個儀器嘅診斷技術

than a team of board-certified doctors.

要好過一隊摞牌營業嘅醫師

So literally, imagine this device

想像一下呢個儀器

in the middle of the developing world where there are no doctors,

可以被用喺缺乏醫生嘅發展中國家

25 percent of the disease burden

發展中國家有全世界 25% 嘅病症

and 1.3 percent of the health care workers.

但係只有全世界 1.3% 嘅醫務人員

When this device sequences an RNA or DNA virus

當呢個儀器遇到一個 RNA 或者 DNA 排列

that it doesn't recognize,

係佢未見過嘅

it calls the CDC

佢就會通報美國疾病防治中心

and prevents the pandemic from happening in the first place.

進而防止疾病從一個地區蔓延開去

But here, here is the biggest force

至於為世界帶來富足嘅

for bringing about a world of abundance.

最強大力量

I call it the rising billion.

我叫佢做「上升十億」

So the white lines here are population.

白線代表人口

We just passed the seven billion mark on Earth.

我哋啱啱超過咗七十億大關

And by the way,

順便提一下

the biggest protection against a population explosion

防止人口爆炸嘅最大力量

is making the world educated

就是教育

and healthy.

同埋醫療

In 2010,

喺 2010 年

we had just short of two billion people

全球有唔到 20 億人口

online, connected.

上網

By 2020,

that's going from two billion to five billion

到 2020 年

網民從 20 億

Internet users.

躍進到 50 億

Three billion new minds

新加入嘅 30 億人口

who have never been heard from before

之前從來冇上過網

are connecting to the global conversation.

但佢哋終於能夠同個世界對話

What will these people want?

呢啲人想要咩？

What will they consume? What will they desire?

佢哋會消費咩？佢哋渴望咩？

And rather than having economic shutdown,

經濟唔會再蕭條

we're about to have the biggest economic injection ever.

而係要迎接有史以來最繁榮嘅經濟

These people represent

呢啲人意味著

tens of trillions of dollars

有幾十兆美元

injected into the global economy.

投入全球嘅經濟市場

And they will get healthier

佢哋就會藉由

by using the Tricorder,

Tricorder 診斷儀器變得更健康

and they'll become better educated by using the Khan Academy,

同藉由可漢學院接受好嘅教育

and by literally being able to use

佢哋可以藉使用

3D printing and infinite computing

3D 打印技術同無限運算功能

[become] more productive than ever before.

變得更有生產力

So what could three billion rising,

所以呢 30 億

healthy, educated, productive members of humanity

健康、教育良好同高生産力嘅人口

bring to us?

能帶畀我哋咩？

How about a set of voices that have never been heard from before.

之前講到被忽視嘅聲音

What about giving the oppressed,

世界各地

wherever they might be,

被壓迫嘅聲音

the voice to be heard and the voice to act

宜家終於會被聽到

for the first time ever?

同受重視

What will these three billion people bring?

呢 30 億人能帶來咩？

What about contributions we can't even predict?

佢哋帶來嘅貢獻可能冇人可以估算

The one thing I've learned at the X Prize

我喺 X 大獎學到嘅一件事

is that small teams

就係即使係一個細團隊

driven by their passion with a clear focus

當佢嘅目標明確同俾熱情所驅動

can do extraordinary things,

都可以做一番大事業

things that large corporations and governments

完成喺以前

could only do in the past.

只有大企業同政府先至作到嘅事

Let me share and close with a story

最尾，我想分享一個故事

that really got me excited.

佢真係好激勵我

There is a program that some of you might have heard of.

應該有人聽過呢個項目

It's a game called Foldit.

有個遊戲叫 Foldit

It came out of the University of Washington in Seattle.

佢係由西雅圖華盛頓大學開發嘅

And this is a game

佢係一個遊戲

where individuals can actually take a sequence of amino acids

玩家可以決定胺基酸嘅排列順序

and figure out how the protein is going to fold.

進而計算出蛋白質跟住會點折疊

And how it folds dictates its structure and its functionality.

蛋白質嘅折疊決定咗佢嘅結構同埋功能

And it's very important for research in medicine.

呢樣對藥物嘅研究好重要

And up until now, it's been a supercomputer problem.

目前為止，呢個問題得超級電腦先做到

And this game has been played

呢個遊戲

by university professors and so forth.

最初俾大學教授之類嘅人玩

And it's literally, hundreds of thousands of people

宜家有幾十萬人

came online and started playing it.

上網玩緊

And it showed that, in fact, today,

事實顯示

the human pattern recognition machinery

人類對模式嘅識別

is better at folding proteins than the best computers.

好過宜家最好嘅電腦

And when these individuals went and looked

呢啲玩家都想知道

at who was the best protein folder in the world,

世界上最識折疊蛋白質嘅人係邊個

it wasn't an MIT professor,

佢唔係麻省理工學院嘅一個教授

it wasn't a CalTech student,

唔係加州理工學院嘅一個學生

it was a person from England, from Manchester,

佢係一個住喺英國曼徹斯特嘅女人

a woman who, during the day,

喺日頭

was an executive assistant at a rehab clinic

佢係一個復健診所嘅行政助理

and, at night, was the world's best protein folder.

到咗晚黑，她就係 世界上最會折疊蛋白質嘅人

Ladies and gentlemen,

各位

what gives me tremendous confidence

係咩嘢令我

in the future

對未來非常有信心?

is the fact that we are now more empowered as individuals

係因為我哋宜家活得更自主更有能力

to take on the grand challenges of this planet.

可以應對各種巨大嘅挑戰

We have the tools with this exponential technology.

我哋嘅科技幾何級數發展

We have the passion of the DIY innovator.

我哋有 DIY 發明家嘅熱情

We have the capital of the techno-philanthropist.

我哋亦都有科技慈善家嘅資本

And we have three billion new minds

仲有 30 億第一次接觸互聯網嘅人

coming online to work with us

嚟幫我哋解決艱鉅嘅難題

to solve the grand challenges,

to do that which we must do.

做我哋應該做嘅嘢

We are living into extraordinary decades ahead.

未來嘅黃金年代等緊我哋

Thank you.

多謝

(Applause)

（掌聲）