Abundance is our future | Peter Diamandis

譯者: Jesse Chen 陳鉦翰 審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai

(Applause)

(掌聲)

(Video) Announcer: Threats, in the wake of Bin Laden's death, have spiked.

(賓拉登死後 威脅不斷竄出)

Announcer Two: Famine in Somalia. Announcer Three: Police pepper spray.

(索馬利亞的飢荒) (警方的胡椒噴霧)

Announcer Four: Vicious cartels. Announcer Five: Caustic cruise lines.

(企業的惡意壟斷) (嚴峻的航線)

Announcer Six: Societal decay. Announcer Seven: 65 dead.

(社會的腐敗) (六十五人死亡)

Announcer Eight: Tsunami warning. Announcer Nine: Cyberattacks.

(海嘯警報) (網路駭客攻擊)

Multiple Announcers: Drug war. Mass destruction. Tornado.

(毒品戰爭) (大規模毀滅) (龍捲風)

Recession. Default. Doomsday. Egypt. Syria.

(經濟衰退) (國家債務) (世界末日) (埃及) (敘利亞)

Crisis. Death. Disaster.

(危機) (死亡) (災難)

Oh, my God.

(喔！我的天啊)

Peter Diamandis: So those are just a few of the clips

彼得．戴曼迪斯：這些新聞只是我過去

I collected over the last six months --

六個月所蒐集的一小部分

could have easily been the last six days

有六天前的

or the last six years.

也有六年前的新聞

The point is that the news media

重點是新聞媒體

preferentially feeds us negative stories

喜歡報導負面新聞

because that's what our minds pay attention to.

因為這類的新聞能吸引大家注意

And there's a very good reason for that.

這有理由可以解釋

Every second of every day,

每天的每分每秒

our senses bring in way too much data

我們的感官接收了太多資訊

than we can possibly process in our brains.

超過了我們大腦的負荷

And because nothing is more important to us

而且對我們來說沒有任何東西

than survival,

是比活著更重要的

the first stop of all of that data

我們接收訊息的第一站

is an ancient sliver of the temporal lobe

是一個在「顳葉」(腦葉之一)中的古老小裂片

called the amygdala.

稱為「扁桃體」

Now the amygdala is our early warning detector,

扁桃體是我們身體最初期的

our danger detector.

警告和危險偵測系統

It sorts and scours through all of the information

它整理、搜尋所有訊息

looking for anything in the environment that might harm us.

偵測環境中任何對我們有害的物質

So given a dozen news stories,

所以在眾多的新聞中

we will preferentially look

我們會偏好於

at the negative news.

負面的新聞

And that old newspaper saying,

曾有一個新聞業界的格言說

"If it bleeds it leads,"

「有血才會賣」

is very true.

一點也沒錯

So given all of our digital devices

我們從各種數位設備

that are bringing all the negative news to us

接收各種負面的新聞

seven days a week, 24 hours a day,

一個禮拜七天、一天24小時毫無間斷

it's no wonder that we're pessimistic.

這也難怪我們這麼悲觀

It's no wonder that people think

難怪人們想的都是

that the world is getting worse.

世界越來越沒希望

But perhaps that's not the case.

但這也許不是事實

Perhaps instead,

這或許是

it's the distortions brought to us

媒體帶給我們

of what's really going on.

對現今新聞的偏見

Perhaps the tremendous progress we've made

也許我們在上個世紀

over the last century

藉由一連串的努力

by a series of forces

創造的大幅進步

are, in fact, accelerating to a point

事實上已帶給我們現在的優勢

that we have the potential in the next three decades

在未來三十年是有潛力

to create a world of abundance.

去創造一個富足的世界

Now I'm not saying

我不是說

we don't have our set of problems --

我們沒有以下一連串的問題：

climate crisis, species extinction,

『氣候危機、物種滅絕、

water and energy shortage -- we surely do.

水源和能源匱乏』這些問題是存在的

And as humans, we are far better

身為人類，我們好多了

at seeing the problems way in advance,

我們早就看到這些問題的產生

but ultimately we knock them down.

但最後我們仍解決了這些問題

So let's look

我們來看看

at what this last century has been

上個世紀到底發生了什麼事

to see where we're going.

而接下來會把我們帶到哪去

Over the last hundred years,

過去一百多年以來

the average human lifespan has more than doubled,

人類的平均壽命成長了兩倍以上

average per capita income adjusted for inflation

經過調整通膨的各國平均國民所得

around the world has tripled.

也成長了三倍以上

Childhood mortality

兒童死亡率

has come down a factor of 10.

也下降到為原來的十分之一

Add to that the cost of food, electricity,

再加上糧食、電能、

transportation, communication

交通、通訊的花費

have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold.

也變成以前的十分之一到千分之一

Steve Pinker has showed us

史迪芬．平克(實驗心理學家)告訴我們

that, in fact, we're living during the most peaceful time ever

我們現在生活的世代

in human history.

是人類史上最和平的一段時間

And Charles Kenny

而查爾斯．肯尼(作家)說

that global literacy has gone from 25 percent to over 80 percent

過去130年，我們的全球識字率

in the last 130 years.

也從25%上升到80%

We truly are living in an extraordinary time.

我們真的生活在一個黃金時期

And many people forget this.

但很多人都忘了這個

And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher.

我們不斷把期望設的越來越高

In fact, we redefine what poverty means.

事實上我們重寫了貧窮的定義

Think of this, in America today,

想想看現今的美國

the majority of people under the poverty line

在貧窮線以下的大多數人

still have electricity, water, toilets, refrigerators,

卻還擁有水、電、馬桶、冰箱、

television, mobile phones,

電視、手機、

air conditioning and cars.

甚至是冷氣和車子

The wealthiest robber barons of the last century, the emperors on this planet,

上個世紀最富有的強盜貴族、各國的帝王

could have never dreamed of such luxuries.

根本想不到會有這種奢侈品

Underpinning much of this

鞏固這種現象的

is technology,

是科技

and of late,

是最近以來

exponentially growing technologies.

快速發展的科技做出的貢獻

My good friend Ray Kurzweil

我的好朋友 雷．庫茨魏爾(科學家)說

showed that any tool that becomes an information technology

任何變成資訊科技的工具

jumps on this curve, on Moore's Law,

都躍上了這個摩爾定律曲線

and experiences price performance doubling

感受科技行情在每一年

every 12 to 24 months.

或每兩年的雙倍成長

That's why the cellphone in your pocket

這就是為什麼你們口袋裡的手機

is literally a million times cheaper and a thousand times faster

比起70年代的超級電腦

than a supercomputer of the '70s.

還要更便宜、更快速了幾百萬倍

Now look at this curve.

請看這個曲線

This is Moore's Law over the last hundred years.

這是一百多年前的摩爾定律

I want you to notice two things from this curve.

我要你注意這曲線上的兩個東西

Number one, how smooth it is --

第一，它是十分平穩的曲綫

through good time and bad time, war time and peace time,

曲線穿越過好時期和壞時期、戰爭時期和和平時期、

recession, depression and boom time.

經濟衰退期、低迷和繁榮時期

This is the result of faster computers

這是速度快的電腦

being used to build faster computers.

被用來創造更快速的電腦的結果

It doesn't slow for any of our grand challenges.

它不因爲我們面對艱鉅的挑戰而慢下來

And also, even though it's plotted

雖然它描繪成

on a log curve on the left,

左邊向上發展

it's curving upwards.

的對數曲線

The rate at which the technology is getting faster

這個是科技進步的比率

is itself getting faster.

科技本身越來越先進

And on this curve, riding on Moore's Law,

在這條摩爾定律曲線上

are a set of extraordinarily powerful technologies

是一連串我們可利用的

available to all of us.

強大而先進的科技

Cloud computing,

「雲端運算」

what my friends at Autodesk call infinite computing;

我在"歐特克公司(Autodesk)"的朋友都稱它為「無限運算」

sensors and networks; robotics;

感應器、網路、自動化設備、3D印刷

3D printing, which is the ability to democratize and distribute

都是在全球能被大眾化跟

personalized production around the planet;

廣為運用的人性化產品

synthetic biology;

人造生物學、

fuels, vaccines and foods;

燃料、疫苗和食物、

digital medicine; nanomaterials; and A.I.

數位醫學、奈米材料和人工智慧

I mean, how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy

你們有多少人看過IBM沃森

by IBM's Watson?

贏了《危險邊緣》(美國智力競賽節目)？

I mean, that was epic.

那次很經典

In fact, I scoured the headlines

為了找一個最好的頭條標題

looking for the best headline in a newspaper I could.

事實上我搜尋了很多報紙

And I love this: "Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents."

而我喜歡這個：《沃森擊敗了"人類"對手》

Jeopardy's not an easy game.

《危險邊緣》不是個容易的比賽

It's about the nuance of human language.

它關係著人類語言的細微差別

And imagine if you would

想像一下

A.I.'s like this on the cloud

人工智慧就跟這個一樣

available to every person with a cellphone.

有手機的人都能擁有

Four years ago here at TED,

四年前

Ray Kurzweil and I started a new university

雷．庫茨魏爾和我進了一所

called Singularity University.

叫「奇點大學」(Singularity University)的新學校教書

And we teach our students all of these technologies,

我們教導學生這些所有科技

and particularly how they can be used

尤其是教他們如何運用

to solve humanity's grand challenges.

這些科技解決人類的巨大挑戰

And every year we ask them

我們每年都要求他們

to start a company or a product or a service

去開新公司、生產產品或是提供服務

that can affect positively the lives of a billion people

希望在十年內帶給

within a decade.

幾百萬人正面的影響

Think about that, the fact that, literally, a group of students

想想看，一群學生說真的

can touch the lives of a billion people today.

可以影響百萬人的生活

30 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous.

這在30年前聽起來是很荒唐的

Today we can point at dozens of companies

現在我們可以說出幾百家的公司

that have done just that.

都在做這種事

When I think about creating abundance,

當我說要創造富足的社會

it's not about creating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet;

不是說要讓世界上每個人都享受奢華生活

it's about creating a life of possibility.

而是要創造出生命的可能性

It is about taking that which was scarce

是要豐富我們

and making it abundant.

所缺乏的東西

You see, scarcity is contextual,

缺乏是因人而異

and technology is a resource-liberating force.

而科技是一個資源解放的力量

Let me give you an example.

我舉個例

So this is a story of Napoleon III

這是在十八世紀中關於

in the mid-1800s.

拿破崙三世的故事

He's the dude on the left.

左邊那個是他

He invited over to dinner

他邀請暹羅國王

the king of Siam.

來共進晚餐

All of Napoleon's troops

拿破崙的軍隊

were fed with silver utensils,

用的是銀製餐具

Napoleon himself with gold utensils.

拿破崙則是用金製餐具

But the King of Siam,

但暹羅國王

he was fed with aluminum utensils.

用的卻是鋁製餐具

You see, aluminum

鋁

was the most valuable metal on the planet,

曾是世上最高貴的金屬

worth more than gold and platinum.

甚至比黃金和白金更有價值

It's the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument

這就是為什麼華盛頓紀念碑的頂端

is made of aluminum.

是由鋁所製成

You see, even though aluminum

雖然鋁礦有大批的藏量

is 8.3 percent of the Earth by mass,

佔地球質量的8.3%

it doesn't come as a pure metal.

但鋁不是純金屬的方式存在

It's all bound by oxygen and silicates.

而是由以「氧」和「矽酸鹽」化合物的方式存在

But then the technology of electrolysis came along

隨著電解科技的到來

and literally made aluminum so cheap

使得鋁越來越廉價

that we use it with throw-away mentality.

我們也就把鋁視為平凡的金屬

So let's project this analogy going forward.

我們可以依此類推

We think about energy scarcity.

想想看能源缺乏

Ladies and gentlemen,

各位

we are on a planet

我們生活在一個星球

that is bathed with 5,000 times more energy

一個擁有高出我們一年

than we use in a year.

所使用能源5000倍的星球

16 terawatts of energy hits the Earth's surface

每88分鐘就有16兆瓦的能源

every 88 minutes.

降落在地球表面

It's not about being scarce,

所以問題並不在於缺乏能源

it's about accessibility.

而在於能源的可利用性

And there's good news here.

有個好消息

For the first time, this year

今年是有史以來第一次

the cost of solar-generated electricity

印度的太陽能發電的花費

is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity in India --

是柴油發電的一半

8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees.

8.8盧比對17盧比的差別

The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year.

去年太陽能發電花費就降了一半

Last month, MIT put out a study

上個月麻省理工學院發表了一項研究

showing that by the end of this decade,

他們表示約在十年後

in the sunny parts of the United States,

美國陽光普照的地區

solar electricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour

太陽能電價格跟現在平均一度要價15分美元相比

compared to 15 cents

每一度電

as a national average.

只要價六分美元

And if we have abundant energy,

我們有了充足的能源

we also have abundant water.

我們就會有充足的水源

Now we talk about water wars.

再來談水資源的戰爭

Do you remember

你是否記得

when Carl Sagan turned the Voyager spacecraft

當卡爾．薩根(天文學家)在1990年

back towards the Earth,

把剛通過土星的航海家1號

in 1990 after it just passed Saturn?

送回地球的時候？

He took a famous photo. What was it called?

他拍了一張很出名的相片，那叫什麼？

"A Pale Blue Dot."

《蒼藍小點》

Because we live on a water planet.

我們住在一個水星球

We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water.

一個表面被70%的水覆蓋的星球

Yes, 97.5 percent is saltwater,

其中97.5%是鹹水

two percent is ice,

2%是冰

and we fight over a half a percent of the water on this planet,

我們為了地球上一半的水在爭吵

but here too there is hope.

天無絕人之路

And there is technology coming online,

一個新科技出現了

not 10, 20 years from now,

不是在十幾二十年後

right now.

是現在

There's nanotechnology coming on, nanomaterials.

奈米科技製造的奈米材料誕生了

And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning,

我今天早上和狄恩．卡門聊天

one of the great DIY innovators,

他是一個偉大的DIY發明家

I'd like to share with you -- he gave me permission to do so --

他允許我可以跟你們分享這段對話

his technology called Slingshot

他的發明－"Slingshot"

that many of you may have heard of,

你們應該都聽過

it is the size of a small dorm room refrigerator.

那是一個約一個小宿舍房間大的冰箱

It's able to generate

它可以發電

a thousand liters of clean drinking water a day

可以每天淨化一千加侖的飲用水

out of any source -- saltwater, polluted water, latrine --

鹹水、汙染水、廁所汙水它都能淨化

at less than two cents a liter.

且一加侖成本少於2分美元

The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed

可口可樂的董事長也同意

to do a major test

做一個大規模測試

of hundreds of units of this in the developing world.

在開發中國家置入幾百套這種設備

And if that pans out,

如果成功了

which I have every confidence it will,

當然我有信心它會成功

Coca-Cola will deploy this globally

可口可樂公司就會

to 206 countries

將此計畫推展至

around the planet.

全球206個國家

This is the kind of innovation, empowered by this technology,

這就是現代科技

that exists today.

所帶來的革新

And we've seen this in cellphones.

手機就是一個代表

My goodness, we're going to hit 70 percent penetration

天啊，我們要在2013之前

of cellphones in the developing world

讓手機在開發中國家

by the end of 2013.

達到70%的使用率

Think about it,

想想看

that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in the middle of Kenya

一個肯亞馬賽族戰士用的手機

has better mobile comm

比25年前雷根總統在位時的

than President Reagan did 25 years ago.

通訊品質還要更好

And if they're on a smartphone on Google,

如果他們用谷歌(Google)的智慧型手機

they've got access to more knowledge and information

就能比15年前柯林頓總統在位時

than President Clinton did 15 years ago.

接收更多的知識和資訊

They're living in a world of information and communication abundance

他們就此生活在一個有富足資訊和通訊的世界

that no one could have ever predicted.

這原本是沒人能預料到的

Better than that,

更好的是

the things that you and I

我們花了

spent tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for --

好幾十萬在這些東西上：

GPS, HD video and still images,

GPS、高畫質影片和靜止圖像

libraries of books and music,

書本和音樂庫、

medical diagnostic technology --

醫療診斷科技...

are now literally dematerializing and demonetizing

而現在這些東西都漸漸的被融入

into your cellphone.

在你們的手機上

Probably the best part of it

而維護人民健康的收費的下降

is what's coming down the pike in health.

大概是其中最好的部分吧

Last month, I had the pleasure of announcing with Qualcomm Foundation

上個月我很榮幸跟「高通基金會」(Qualcomm Foundation)一起宣布

something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize.

高通"Tricorder"的「X大獎」千萬得主

We're challenging teams around the world

我們向全球參賽者們提出挑戰

to basically combine these technologies

把這些全部功能

into a mobile device

融合在一個移動式的設備裡

that you can speak to, because it's got A.I.,

因為有人工智慧，所以你能對著它講話

you can cough on it, you can do a finger blood prick.

可以對它咳嗽或是做手指血液採樣

And to win, it needs to be able to diagnose you better

要贏得此獎，該儀器的診斷技術

than a team of board-certified doctors.

必須比公會認證的醫師團隊還要精確

So literally, imagine this device

想像一下這個儀器

in the middle of the developing world where there are no doctors,

能被用在沒有醫生的開發中國家

25 percent of the disease burden

在那裏有25%的地區在疾病肆虐的壓力下

and 1.3 percent of the health care workers.

且只有1.3%的人是醫療保健工作者

When this device sequences an RNA or DNA virus

而當這個儀器無法辨識出

that it doesn't recognize,

所排列的RNA或DNA病毒時

it calls the CDC

它就會通報「疾病防治中心」(CDC)

and prevents the pandemic from happening in the first place.

進而防止疾病從該地區散播出去

But here, here is the biggest force

這有一個最強大的力量

for bringing about a world of abundance.

能帶來一個富足的世界

I call it the rising billion.

我稱它為「上升十億」

So the white lines here are population.

白色那條代表人口

We just passed the seven billion mark on Earth.

我們剛通過了七十億大關

And by the way,

順道一提

the biggest protection against a population explosion

防止人口爆炸的最大力量

is making the world educated

就是教育

and healthy.

和健康

In 2010,

在2010年

we had just short of two billion people

全球還不到20億人口

online, connected.

有網際網路的連線

By 2020,

到2020年

that's going from two billion to five billion

網路使用者會從20億

Internet users.

躍進到50億

Three billion new minds

新加入的30億人口

who have never been heard from before

之前從沒聽過網路這種東西

are connecting to the global conversation.

他們終於能跟世界對話

What will these people want?

這些人想要什麼？

What will they consume? What will they desire?

他們會接收到什麼？他們渴望什麼？

And rather than having economic shutdown,

當然不是經濟的蕭條

we're about to have the biggest economic injection ever.

而是要感受有史以來最繁榮的經濟

These people represent

這些人意味著

tens of trillions of dollars

有幾十兆美元

injected into the global economy.

投入了全球經濟市場

And they will get healthier

他們就會藉由

by using the Tricorder,

"Tricorder"(剛提過的診斷儀器)變健康

and they'll become better educated by using the Khan Academy,

和藉由「可漢學院」(非營利教育組織)得到較好的教育

and by literally being able to use

漸漸地能使用

3D printing and infinite computing

3D列印技術和無限運算功能

[become] more productive than ever before.

變得更有生產力

So what could three billion rising,

所以這30億

healthy, educated, productive members of humanity

健康、教育良好和高生産力的人口

bring to us?

能帶給我們什麽？

How about a set of voices that have never been heard from before.

說到之前一堆被忽視的聲音

What about giving the oppressed,

他們無論到哪裡

wherever they might be,

都被壓迫著

the voice to be heard and the voice to act

他們的聲音要到哪時候才能

for the first time ever?

被重視而不被忽略？

What will these three billion people bring?

這30億人能帶來什麼？

What about contributions we can't even predict?

有可能是誰也無法預料到的貢獻？

The one thing I've learned at the X Prize

我在「X大獎」學到的一件事

is that small teams

就是即使一個小團隊

driven by their passion with a clear focus

當目標明確又被熱情所驅動下

can do extraordinary things,

也能完成一番不平凡的大事業

things that large corporations and governments

能完成在以前

could only do in the past.

只有大企業和政府才能作到的事

Let me share and close with a story

我分享一個故事作結尾

that really got me excited.

這真的很激勵我

There is a program that some of you might have heard of.

應該有人聽過這個程式

It's a game called Foldit.

一個叫《Foldit》的遊戲程式

It came out of the University of Washington in Seattle.

它是由西雅圖華盛頓大學開發的

And this is a game

它是一個遊戲

where individuals can actually take a sequence of amino acids

玩家能決定胺基酸的排列

and figure out how the protein is going to fold.

進而算出蛋白質接下來如何折疊

And how it folds dictates its structure and its functionality.

蛋白質的折疊方式決定了它的結構和功能

And it's very important for research in medicine.

這對藥物的研究很重要

And up until now, it's been a supercomputer problem.

但現在，這是超級電腦要做的事

And this game has been played

這個遊戲

by university professors and so forth.

已被大學教授之類的人玩過

And it's literally, hundreds of thousands of people

現在漸漸的有幾十萬人

came online and started playing it.

也開始在玩

And it showed that, in fact, today,

這顯示出事實上現在

the human pattern recognition machinery

人類的模式識別機器

is better at folding proteins than the best computers.

比現在最好的電腦更能折疊蛋白質

And when these individuals went and looked

這些玩家都想知道

at who was the best protein folder in the world,

誰是世界上最會折疊蛋白質的人

it wasn't an MIT professor,

不是麻省理工學院的教授

it wasn't a CalTech student,

也不是加州理工學院的學生

it was a person from England, from Manchester,

是一個住在英國曼徹斯特的女人

a woman who, during the day,

在白天

was an executive assistant at a rehab clinic

她是一個復健診所的行政助理

and, at night, was the world's best protein folder.

到了晚上她就是世界上最會折疊蛋白質的人

Ladies and gentlemen,

各位

what gives me tremendous confidence

是什麼東西讓我

in the future

對未非常有信心?

is the fact that we are now more empowered as individuals

我們現在能活得更自主更完整

to take on the grand challenges of this planet.

能接受各種襲來的巨大挑戰

We have the tools with this exponential technology.

我們有讓科技快速成長的工具

We have the passion of the DIY innovator.

有DIY發明家的熱情

We have the capital of the techno-philanthropist.

也有科技慈善家(高通基金會)當作資本

And we have three billion new minds

還有30億的新人

coming online to work with us

來幫助我們

to solve the grand challenges,

解決艱鉅的挑戰

to do that which we must do.

做我們該做的事

We are living into extraordinary decades ahead.

未來的黃金年代正等著我們！

Thank you.

謝謝

(Applause)

(掌聲)