Abundance is our future | Peter Diamandis

496,282 views ・ 2012-03-01

TED


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Prevoditelj: Marin Stojic Recezent: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG
00:15
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
00:18
(Video) Announcer: Threats, in the wake of Bin Laden's death, have spiked.
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Video (najavljivač): Izraziti porast prijetnji u jeku Bin Ladenove smrti...
00:21
Announcer Two: Famine in Somalia. Announcer Three: Police pepper spray.
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Glad u Somaliji. Policija koristila suzavac.
00:23
Announcer Four: Vicious cartels. Announcer Five: Caustic cruise lines.
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Opasni karteli. (nasukani) Costa kruzer.
00:25
Announcer Six: Societal decay. Announcer Seven: 65 dead.
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Raspad društva. 65 mrtvih.
00:28
Announcer Eight: Tsunami warning. Announcer Nine: Cyberattacks.
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Upozorenje od tsunamija. Cyber-napadi.
00:30
Multiple Announcers: Drug war. Mass destruction. Tornado.
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Ratovi narko-kartela. Masovno uništenje. Tornado.
00:32
Recession. Default. Doomsday. Egypt. Syria.
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Recesija. Zadano. Sudnji dan. Egipat. Sirija.
00:34
Crisis. Death. Disaster.
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Kriza. Smrt. Katastrofa.
00:36
Oh, my God.
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O moj Bože!
00:39
Peter Diamandis: So those are just a few of the clips
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Peter Diamandis: Dakle, ovo su samo neki od isječaka
00:41
I collected over the last six months --
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koje sam sakupio tijekom posljednih šest mjeseci --
00:43
could have easily been the last six days
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moglo je lagano biti i u zadnjih šest dana ili
00:45
or the last six years.
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u zadnjih šest godina.
00:47
The point is that the news media
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Poanta je u tome da nas mediji
00:49
preferentially feeds us negative stories
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namjerno hrane negativnim pričama
00:52
because that's what our minds pay attention to.
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jer je to ono na što naš mozak obraća pažnju.
00:55
And there's a very good reason for that.
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A tomu ima vrlo dobar razlog.
00:57
Every second of every day,
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Svake sekunde svakoga dana
00:59
our senses bring in way too much data
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naša osjetila primaju puno više informacija
01:01
than we can possibly process in our brains.
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nego što ih naš mozak zapravo može obraditi.
01:04
And because nothing is more important to us
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A s obzirom da nama ništa nije važnije
01:06
than survival,
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od preživljavanja,
01:08
the first stop of all of that data
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prva postaja svih tih silnih podataka
01:10
is an ancient sliver of the temporal lobe
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je drevni sklop u sljepoočnom režnju
01:12
called the amygdala.
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zvan amigdala.
01:14
Now the amygdala is our early warning detector,
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Amigdala je naš detektor za rano upozoravanje,
01:17
our danger detector.
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naš detektor opasnosti.
01:19
It sorts and scours through all of the information
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On razvrstava i pretražuje sve dostupne informacije
01:22
looking for anything in the environment that might harm us.
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tražeći bilo što u okolini što bi nam moglo nauditi.
01:25
So given a dozen news stories,
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Tako da kada dobijemo desetak novinskih članaka,
01:27
we will preferentially look
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namjerno ćemo obraćati pažnju
01:29
at the negative news.
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na negativne vijesti.
01:31
And that old newspaper saying,
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A jedna stara novinarska izreka:
01:33
"If it bleeds it leads,"
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"Što krvavije, to prodavanije"
01:35
is very true.
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potpuno je istinita.
01:37
So given all of our digital devices
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Uzimajući tako u obzir sve naše digitalne uređaje
01:40
that are bringing all the negative news to us
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koji nam donose sve te negativne vijesti
01:42
seven days a week, 24 hours a day,
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sedam dana u tjednu, 24 sata dnevno,
01:45
it's no wonder that we're pessimistic.
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nije niti čudno da smo pesimistični.
01:47
It's no wonder that people think
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Nije niti čudno da ljudi misle
01:49
that the world is getting worse.
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kako svijet postaje sve lošiji.
01:53
But perhaps that's not the case.
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No ipak, to možda i nije tako.
01:56
Perhaps instead,
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Možda je ipak to sve što nam se predočava
01:58
it's the distortions brought to us
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samo izobličenje onoga
02:00
of what's really going on.
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što se zbilja događa.
02:03
Perhaps the tremendous progress we've made
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Možda nas izvanredni napredak koji smo postigli
02:05
over the last century
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tijekom prošlog stoljeća
02:07
by a series of forces
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slijedom raznih pokretačkih sila,
02:09
are, in fact, accelerating to a point
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ustvari ubrzava prema tome da
02:12
that we have the potential in the next three decades
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u sljedeća tri desetljeća imamo
02:15
to create a world of abundance.
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potencijala stvoriti svijet izobilja.
02:18
Now I'm not saying
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Ne pokušavam reći kako
02:20
we don't have our set of problems --
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nemamo problema --
02:22
climate crisis, species extinction,
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klimatska kriza, izumiranje vrsta,
02:24
water and energy shortage -- we surely do.
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nedostatak vode i energije -- zasigurno imamo.
02:27
And as humans, we are far better
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I kao ljudima, puno nam bolje ide
02:29
at seeing the problems way in advance,
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takvo uočavanje problema unaprijed,
02:32
but ultimately we knock them down.
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ali u konačnici ih savladamo.
02:36
So let's look
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Pa pogledajmo odakle smo krenuli
02:38
at what this last century has been
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tijekom prošlog stoljeća
02:40
to see where we're going.
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kako bi znali kamo idemo.
02:42
Over the last hundred years,
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Tijekom zadnjih sto godina
02:44
the average human lifespan has more than doubled,
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prosječni životni vijek čovjeka se više nego udvostručio,
02:47
average per capita income adjusted for inflation
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prosječni dohodak po stanovniku se prilagodio inflaciji te
02:50
around the world has tripled.
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utrostručio na svjetskoj razini.
02:52
Childhood mortality
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Smrtnost u djece se
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has come down a factor of 10.
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smanjila za 10 puta.
02:56
Add to that the cost of food, electricity,
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Dodajte tome troškove hrane, električne energije,
02:58
transportation, communication
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prijevoza i komunikacije
03:00
have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold.
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koji su pali od 10 do 1000 puta.
03:04
Steve Pinker has showed us
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Steve Pinker nam je pokazao
03:06
that, in fact, we're living during the most peaceful time ever
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da mi ustvari živimo u najmirnijem dobu
03:09
in human history.
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cijele ljudske povijesti.
03:11
And Charles Kenny
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A Charles Kenny je pokazao
03:13
that global literacy has gone from 25 percent to over 80 percent
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kako je pismenost na svjetskoj razini porasla s 25 na 80 posto
03:16
in the last 130 years.
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u zadnjih 130 godina.
03:19
We truly are living in an extraordinary time.
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Zaista živimo u izvanrednom vremenu.
03:23
And many people forget this.
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Puno ljudi to zaboravlja.
03:25
And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher.
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Postavljamo naša očekivanja sve više i više.
03:28
In fact, we redefine what poverty means.
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Ustvari, mi mijenjamo definiciju siromaštva.
03:31
Think of this, in America today,
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Razmislite o ovome, danas u Americi,
03:33
the majority of people under the poverty line
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većina ljudi ispod granice siromaštva
03:36
still have electricity, water, toilets, refrigerators,
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još uvijek ima električnu energiju, vodu, zahode, hladnjake,
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television, mobile phones,
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televiziju, mobilne telefone,
03:41
air conditioning and cars.
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klimatizaciju i automobile.
03:44
The wealthiest robber barons of the last century, the emperors on this planet,
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Najbogatiji feudalni gospodari prošlog stoljeća, tadašnji vladari Planeta,
03:47
could have never dreamed of such luxuries.
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nikada nisu mogli niti sanjati o takvoj raskoši.
03:53
Underpinning much of this
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Glavni oslonac svemu tome je
03:56
is technology,
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tehnologija,
03:58
and of late,
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a u posljednje vrijeme to je
04:00
exponentially growing technologies.
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eksponencijalno rastuća tehnologija.
04:02
My good friend Ray Kurzweil
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Moj dobar prijatelj Ray Kurzweil je pokazao
04:04
showed that any tool that becomes an information technology
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da se bilo koji alat koji postane dio informacijske tehologije
04:07
jumps on this curve, on Moore's Law,
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prilagođava ovoj krivulji Mooreovom zakonu, te da
04:10
and experiences price performance doubling
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doživljava udvostručenje izvedbe u odnosu na cijenu
04:12
every 12 to 24 months.
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svakih 12 do 24 mjeseci.
04:15
That's why the cellphone in your pocket
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Zato je mobilni uređaj u vašem džepu
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is literally a million times cheaper and a thousand times faster
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doslovno milijun puta jeftiniji i tisuću puta brži
04:19
than a supercomputer of the '70s.
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od superračunala iz 70-ih godina.
04:21
Now look at this curve.
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Pogledajte sada ovu krivulju.
04:23
This is Moore's Law over the last hundred years.
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To je Mooreov zakon tijekom zadnjih 100 godina.
04:25
I want you to notice two things from this curve.
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Htio bih da zapazite dvije stvari na ovoj krivulji.
04:27
Number one, how smooth it is --
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Kao prvo, zamijetite kako je glatka --
04:31
through good time and bad time, war time and peace time,
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tijekom dobrih i loših razdoblja, tijekom rata i mira,
04:34
recession, depression and boom time.
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tijekom recesije, depresije i rasta.
04:37
This is the result of faster computers
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To je posljedica bržih računala kojima
04:39
being used to build faster computers.
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se rade još brža računala.
04:42
It doesn't slow for any of our grand challenges.
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Taj proces se ne usporava za bilo koji od naših velikih izazova.
04:46
And also, even though it's plotted
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Također, iako je krivulja nacrtana
04:48
on a log curve on the left,
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u logaritamskom mjerilu na
04:50
it's curving upwards.
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vertikalnoj osi, strmo se penje.
04:52
The rate at which the technology is getting faster
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Sama stopa ubrzanja tehnologije
04:54
is itself getting faster.
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je u porastu.
04:57
And on this curve, riding on Moore's Law,
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I ta krivulja koja se pokorava Mooreovom zakonu
05:00
are a set of extraordinarily powerful technologies
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sadrži iznimno jake tehnologije koje
05:03
available to all of us.
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su dostupne svima nama.
05:05
Cloud computing,
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Računarstvo u oblaku,
05:07
what my friends at Autodesk call infinite computing;
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koje moji prijatelji u Autodesku zovu računarstvo bez granica,
05:09
sensors and networks; robotics;
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senzori i mreže; robotika;
05:12
3D printing, which is the ability to democratize and distribute
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3D printanje, koje ima mogućnost demokratizacije i distribucije
05:15
personalized production around the planet;
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personalizirane prozvodnje svakome diljem svijeta.
05:17
synthetic biology;
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sintetička biologija;
05:19
fuels, vaccines and foods;
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izvori energije, cjepiva i hrana;
05:22
digital medicine; nanomaterials; and A.I.
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digitalna medicina; nanomaterijali; i umjetna inteligencija.
05:25
I mean, how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy
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Koliko je vas vidjelo pobjedu u kvizu Izazov
05:28
by IBM's Watson?
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koju je odnio IBM-ov Watson?
05:30
I mean, that was epic.
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Mislim, to je bilo povijesno!
05:33
In fact, I scoured the headlines
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Ustvari, pretražio sam naslove u novinama
05:35
looking for the best headline in a newspaper I could.
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tražeći najbolji naslov koji se može pronaći.
05:37
And I love this: "Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents."
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I ovo mi je super: "Watson pokorio ljudske protivnike."
05:42
Jeopardy's not an easy game.
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Izazov nije lagan kviz.
05:44
It's about the nuance of human language.
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Radi se o nijansama ljudskog jezika.
05:47
And imagine if you would
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A zamislite umjetnu inteligenciju poput te
05:49
A.I.'s like this on the cloud
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koja je u oblaku, dostupna
05:51
available to every person with a cellphone.
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svakoj osobi s mobitelom.
05:54
Four years ago here at TED,
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Prije četiri godine tu na TED-u,
05:56
Ray Kurzweil and I started a new university
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Ray Kurzweil i ja smo osnovali novo sveučilište
05:58
called Singularity University.
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imenom Singularity University.
06:00
And we teach our students all of these technologies,
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I poučavamo naše studente o svim ovim tehnologijama,
06:03
and particularly how they can be used
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te posebno kako ih se može iskoristiti
06:05
to solve humanity's grand challenges.
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za rješavanje najvećih ljudskih izazova.
06:08
And every year we ask them
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Svake godine ih tražimo
06:10
to start a company or a product or a service
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da započnu poduzeće ili proizvod ili uslugu
06:13
that can affect positively the lives of a billion people
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koja ima mogućnost pozitivnog djelovanja na živote milijarde ljudi
06:16
within a decade.
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unutar jednog desetljeća.
06:18
Think about that, the fact that, literally, a group of students
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Zamislite to, da doslovno grupica studenata
06:21
can touch the lives of a billion people today.
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može dotaknuti živote milijarde ljudi danas.
06:24
30 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous.
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Prije 30 godina to bi zvučalo smiješno.
06:26
Today we can point at dozens of companies
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Danas možemo naći desetke kompanija
06:29
that have done just that.
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koje su učinile upravo to.
06:31
When I think about creating abundance,
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Kada razmišljam kako stvoriti izobilje,
06:37
it's not about creating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet;
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nije riječ o stvaranju luksuznog života za svakoga na planeti;
06:40
it's about creating a life of possibility.
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riječ je o stvaranju života s mogućnostima.
06:43
It is about taking that which was scarce
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Riječ je o tome da se uzme ono što je rijetko
06:46
and making it abundant.
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i pretvori se u izobilje.
06:48
You see, scarcity is contextual,
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Vidite, rijetkost ovisi o kontekstu,
06:51
and technology is a resource-liberating force.
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a tehnologija je sila koja oslobađa resurse.
06:56
Let me give you an example.
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Dat ću vam primjer.
06:59
So this is a story of Napoleon III
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Ovo je priča o Napoleonu III
07:01
in the mid-1800s.
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sredinom 1800-ih godina.
07:03
He's the dude on the left.
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On je tip na lijevoj strani.
07:06
He invited over to dinner
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On je pozvao na večeru
07:08
the king of Siam.
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kralja Sijama (današnji Tajland).
07:10
All of Napoleon's troops
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Sve napoleonove postrojbe
07:12
were fed with silver utensils,
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hranile su se srebrnim priborom,
07:15
Napoleon himself with gold utensils.
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a sam Napoleon hranio se zlatnim priborom.
07:17
But the King of Siam,
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Ali sijamski kralj se
07:19
he was fed with aluminum utensils.
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hranio aluminijskim priborom.
07:21
You see, aluminum
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Vidite, aluminij je
07:23
was the most valuable metal on the planet,
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bio najvrijedniji metal na planetu,
07:26
worth more than gold and platinum.
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vrijedio je više nego zlato i platina.
07:29
It's the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument
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To je razlog što je vrh spomenika Washington
07:32
is made of aluminum.
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izrađen od aluminija.
07:34
You see, even though aluminum
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Iako aluminij sačinjava
07:36
is 8.3 percent of the Earth by mass,
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8,3 posto mase Zemlje,
07:39
it doesn't come as a pure metal.
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ne dolazi u obliku čistog metala.
07:41
It's all bound by oxygen and silicates.
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Vezan je u spojevima oksida i silikata.
07:44
But then the technology of electrolysis came along
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No onda je došla tehnologija elektrolize
07:47
and literally made aluminum so cheap
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i doslovno je toliko pojeftinila aluminij
07:50
that we use it with throw-away mentality.
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da ga sada koristimo i odmah bacamo kao otpad.
07:53
So let's project this analogy going forward.
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Pa primjenimo tu analogiju u budućnosti.
07:57
We think about energy scarcity.
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Sada razmišljamo o nedostatku energije.
07:59
Ladies and gentlemen,
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Dame i gospodo,
08:01
we are on a planet
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mi se nalazimo na planetu
08:03
that is bathed with 5,000 times more energy
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na kojem se nalazi 5.000 puta više energije
08:06
than we use in a year.
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nego što iskoristimo u godini dana.
08:09
16 terawatts of energy hits the Earth's surface
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16 TW energije udara o zemljinu povšinu
08:11
every 88 minutes.
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svakih 88 minuta.
08:15
It's not about being scarce,
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Nije problem u oskudnosti
08:17
it's about accessibility.
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nego u načinu iskorištavanja.
08:19
And there's good news here.
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A ima dobrih vijesti vezano uz to.
08:21
For the first time, this year
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Po prvi puta, ove godine je u Indiji
08:23
the cost of solar-generated electricity
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cijena električne energije iz solarnih izvora
08:26
is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity in India --
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50 posto cijene električne energije iz izvora pokretanih dizel gorivom --
08:30
8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees.
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8,8 rupija naspram 17 rupija.
08:33
The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year.
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Prošle godine je cijena solarne energije pala za 50 posto.
08:35
Last month, MIT put out a study
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Prošli mjesec, MIT je predstavio studiju
08:37
showing that by the end of this decade,
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koja je pokazala kako će do kraja ovoga desetljeća
08:39
in the sunny parts of the United States,
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u sunčanim dijelovima SAD-a
08:41
solar electricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour
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solarna energija imati cijenu od 6 centi po kW/h
08:43
compared to 15 cents
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te 15 centi na
08:45
as a national average.
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državnoj razini u prosjeku.
08:47
And if we have abundant energy,
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A ako imamo izobilje energije,
08:50
we also have abundant water.
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imamo i izobilje vode.
08:53
Now we talk about water wars.
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Recimo sada nešto o ratovima za vodu.
08:58
Do you remember
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Sjećate li se
09:00
when Carl Sagan turned the Voyager spacecraft
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kada je Carl Sagan okrenuo letjelicu Voyager
09:02
back towards the Earth,
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natrag prema Zemlji
09:04
in 1990 after it just passed Saturn?
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odmah nakon što je prošao Saturn 1990. godine?
09:06
He took a famous photo. What was it called?
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Uslikao je poznatu fotografiju. Kako se zvala?
09:09
"A Pale Blue Dot."
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"Blijeda plava točkica."
09:11
Because we live on a water planet.
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Tako je nazvana jer živimo na vodenom planetu.
09:14
We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water.
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Živimo na planetu čijih je 70 posto prekriveno vodom.
09:17
Yes, 97.5 percent is saltwater,
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Istina, 97,5 posto je slana voda,
09:19
two percent is ice,
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dva posto je led,
09:21
and we fight over a half a percent of the water on this planet,
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a mi se svađamo oko ostalih 0,5 posto vode na planetu.
09:24
but here too there is hope.
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Ali i tu ima nade.
09:26
And there is technology coming online,
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Razvija se tehnologija
09:29
not 10, 20 years from now,
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i to ne za 10 ili 20 godina u budućnosti,
09:31
right now.
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već sada.
09:33
There's nanotechnology coming on, nanomaterials.
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Dolaze nanotehnologija i nanomaterijali.
09:36
And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning,
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A razgovor koji sam imao jutros s Deanom Kamenom,
09:39
one of the great DIY innovators,
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jednim od velikih 'uradi-sam' inovatora,
09:41
I'd like to share with you -- he gave me permission to do so --
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želio bih podijeliti s vama -- dao mi je dopuštenje za to --
09:44
his technology called Slingshot
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njegova tehnologija zvana Slingshot
09:46
that many of you may have heard of,
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za koju ste možda već i čuli,
09:48
it is the size of a small dorm room refrigerator.
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veličine je malog sobnog hladnjaka.
09:50
It's able to generate
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Ima sposobnost proizvodnje
09:52
a thousand liters of clean drinking water a day
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tisuću litara čiste pitke vode svaki dan
09:54
out of any source -- saltwater, polluted water, latrine --
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iz bilo kojeg izvora -- slane vode, zagađene vode, vode iz toaleta --
09:57
at less than two cents a liter.
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i to po cijeni manjoj od 2 centa po litri.
10:02
The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed
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Predsjednik Coca-Cole upravo je pristao
10:04
to do a major test
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na ogromno ispitivanje stotine ovakvih
10:06
of hundreds of units of this in the developing world.
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uređaja u zemljama u razvoju.
10:09
And if that pans out,
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Ako se to ispostavi uspješnim,
10:11
which I have every confidence it will,
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u što imam puno povjerenje da hoće,
10:13
Coca-Cola will deploy this globally
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Coca-Cola će ovo proširiti na
10:15
to 206 countries
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206 zemalja
10:17
around the planet.
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diljem svijeta.
10:19
This is the kind of innovation, empowered by this technology,
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To je ta vrsta inovativnosti potpomognute tehnologijom,
10:22
that exists today.
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koja postoji danas.
10:26
And we've seen this in cellphones.
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A to smo već vidjeli kod mobitela.
10:28
My goodness, we're going to hit 70 percent penetration
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Bože dragi, dostići ćemo penetraciju od 70 posto
10:30
of cellphones in the developing world
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mobitela u zemljama u razvoju
10:32
by the end of 2013.
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do kraja 2013. godine.
10:34
Think about it,
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Razislite o tome,
10:36
that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in the middle of Kenya
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da Masai ratnik usred Kenije na mobitelu
10:39
has better mobile comm
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ima bolju mogućnost mobilne komunikacije
10:41
than President Reagan did 25 years ago.
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nego što je imao predsjednik Reagan prije 25 godina.
10:44
And if they're on a smartphone on Google,
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A ako ima smartphone s Google-om
10:46
they've got access to more knowledge and information
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imaju pristup većem znanju i informacijama
10:48
than President Clinton did 15 years ago.
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nego što je imao predsjednik Clinton prije 15 godina.
10:50
They're living in a world of information and communication abundance
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Oni žive u svijetu izobilja informacija i komunikacija
10:53
that no one could have ever predicted.
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koji nitko nije mogao predvidjeti.
10:57
Better than that,
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Još bolje,
10:59
the things that you and I
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stvari na koje smo ja i vi
11:01
spent tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for --
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potrošili tisuće i stotine tisuća dolara --
11:03
GPS, HD video and still images,
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GPS, HD video i slike,
11:06
libraries of books and music,
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zbirke knjiga i glazbe,
11:09
medical diagnostic technology --
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tehnologija medicinske dijagnostike --
11:11
are now literally dematerializing and demonetizing
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sada gube novčanu vrijednost i doslovno se dematerijaliziraju
11:14
into your cellphone.
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u vaš mobitel.
11:19
Probably the best part of it
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Možda je najbolji dio svega
11:21
is what's coming down the pike in health.
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ono što nam dolazi u zdravstvu.
11:24
Last month, I had the pleasure of announcing with Qualcomm Foundation
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Prošli mjesec sam imao zadovoljstvo najaviti s Qualcomm Foundation-om
11:28
something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize.
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nešto što zovemo "Qualcomm Tricorder X nagrada od 10 milijuna $".
11:32
We're challenging teams around the world
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Izazivamo ekipe diljem svijeta
11:34
to basically combine these technologies
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da naprosto spoje sve ove tehnologije
11:36
into a mobile device
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u mobilni uređaj s kojim
11:38
that you can speak to, because it's got A.I.,
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možete razgovarati jer posjeduje umjetnu inteligenciju,
11:40
you can cough on it, you can do a finger blood prick.
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možete zakašljati na njega, možete mu izvaditi krv iz prsta.
11:43
And to win, it needs to be able to diagnose you better
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I kako bi pobijedio, mora vam biti u mogućnosti postaviti bolju dijagnozu
11:45
than a team of board-certified doctors.
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nego što to može ekipa službeno ovlaštenih liječnika.
11:49
So literally, imagine this device
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Tako da doslovno zamislite ovakav uređaj
11:52
in the middle of the developing world where there are no doctors,
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usred zemalja u razvoju gdje nema liječnika,
11:55
25 percent of the disease burden
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25 posto ljudi je oboljelo
11:57
and 1.3 percent of the health care workers.
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a 1,3 posto populacije radi u zdravstvu.
12:00
When this device sequences an RNA or DNA virus
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Kada ovaj uređaj sekvencira RNK ili DNK virus
12:02
that it doesn't recognize,
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koji ne prepoznaje,
12:04
it calls the CDC
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zove CDC (Centar za sprečavanje zaraze)
12:06
and prevents the pandemic from happening in the first place.
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i spriječava da pandemija uopće i započne.
12:11
But here, here is the biggest force
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Ali ovo, ovo je najveća sila
12:14
for bringing about a world of abundance.
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koja će donijeti svijet izobilja.
12:16
I call it the rising billion.
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Zovem je - milijarda koja se podiže.
12:19
So the white lines here are population.
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Tu su bijele linije populacija.
12:22
We just passed the seven billion mark on Earth.
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Upravo smo prešli 7 milijardi na Zemlji.
12:25
And by the way,
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A usput, najveća
12:27
the biggest protection against a population explosion
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zaštita od eksplozije populacije
12:29
is making the world educated
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je obrazovanje i
12:31
and healthy.
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zdravlje ljudi.
12:34
In 2010,
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2010. godine smo
12:36
we had just short of two billion people
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imali skoro dvije milijarde ljudi
12:38
online, connected.
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spojenih, umreženih.
12:40
By 2020,
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Do 2020. godine
12:42
that's going from two billion to five billion
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taj broj će od dvije milijarde doseći pet milijardi
12:44
Internet users.
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korisnika Interneta.
12:46
Three billion new minds
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tri milijarde novih umova
12:48
who have never been heard from before
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koje nikada prije nismo čuli,
12:50
are connecting to the global conversation.
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uključuju se u globalni razgovor.
12:54
What will these people want?
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Što će ti ljudi htjeti?
12:56
What will they consume? What will they desire?
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Što će konzumirati? Što će željeti?
12:58
And rather than having economic shutdown,
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I umjesto da doživimo ekonomski slom,
13:00
we're about to have the biggest economic injection ever.
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uskoro ćemo doživjeti najveću ekonomsku injekciju ikad.
13:03
These people represent
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Ovi ljudi predstavljaju
13:05
tens of trillions of dollars
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desetke bilijuna dolara
13:07
injected into the global economy.
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utrošenih u globalnu ekonomiju.
13:10
And they will get healthier
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Oni će postati i zdraviji
13:12
by using the Tricorder,
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koristeći Tricorder,
13:14
and they'll become better educated by using the Khan Academy,
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postat će i obrazovaniji koristeći Khan Akademiju,
13:16
and by literally being able to use
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te doslovnim korištenjem
13:19
3D printing and infinite computing
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3D printanja i računarstva u oblaku
13:22
[become] more productive than ever before.
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postati će produktivniji nego ikada.
13:25
So what could three billion rising,
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Što bi nam onda tri milijarde koje se podižu,
13:28
healthy, educated, productive members of humanity
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zdravi, obrazovani, produktivni članovi čovječanstva,
13:31
bring to us?
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mogli donijeti?
13:33
How about a set of voices that have never been heard from before.
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Možda glasove koje nikada dosada nismo čuli.
13:36
What about giving the oppressed,
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Što sa time što će se potlačenima,
13:38
wherever they might be,
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gdje god se oni nalazili,
13:40
the voice to be heard and the voice to act
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dati glas koji se može čuti i koji može djelovati
13:42
for the first time ever?
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po prvi put ikada?
13:45
What will these three billion people bring?
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Što će te tri milijarde ljudi donijeti?
13:48
What about contributions we can't even predict?
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Možda doprinose koje ne možemo niti predvidjeti?
13:51
The one thing I've learned at the X Prize
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Jedna stvar koju sam naučio na X Prize-u
13:53
is that small teams
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je da mali timovi
13:55
driven by their passion with a clear focus
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koje pokreće strast a jasnim fokusom
13:58
can do extraordinary things,
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mogu učiniti izvanredne stvari,
14:00
things that large corporations and governments
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stvari koje su velike korporacije i vlade
14:02
could only do in the past.
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mogle učiniti jedino u prošlosti.
14:05
Let me share and close with a story
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Dopustite mi da završim tako da podijelim
14:07
that really got me excited.
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s vama priču koja me stvarno uzbuđuje.
14:10
There is a program that some of you might have heard of.
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Postoji jedan program za koji ste možda čuli.
14:12
It's a game called Foldit.
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To je igra imenom Foldit.
14:14
It came out of the University of Washington in Seattle.
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Napravljena je na Sveučilištu Washington u Seattle-u.
14:18
And this is a game
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To je igra u kojoj
14:20
where individuals can actually take a sequence of amino acids
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pojedinci mogu uzeti slijed aminokiselina
14:24
and figure out how the protein is going to fold.
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i predvidjeti kako će se protein posložiti.
14:28
And how it folds dictates its structure and its functionality.
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A to kako se posloži uvjetuje njegovu strukturu i funkcionalnost.
14:30
And it's very important for research in medicine.
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I to je vrlo važno za istraživanja u medicini.
14:33
And up until now, it's been a supercomputer problem.
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A sve do sada, to je bio problem koji su rješavala superračunala.
14:36
And this game has been played
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Ovu igru su igrali i
14:38
by university professors and so forth.
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sveučilišni profesori i sl.
14:40
And it's literally, hundreds of thousands of people
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I doslovno, stotine tisuća ljudi su
14:43
came online and started playing it.
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došli online i počeli igrati tu igru.
14:45
And it showed that, in fact, today,
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I to je sve pokazalo da su danas ustvari,
14:47
the human pattern recognition machinery
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ljudi i njihovo sklopovlje za prepoznavanje uzoraka
14:49
is better at folding proteins than the best computers.
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bolji u slaganju proteina nego najbolja računala.
14:52
And when these individuals went and looked
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A kada su pojedinci otišli pogledati
14:54
at who was the best protein folder in the world,
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tko je najbolji na svijetu u slaganju proteina,
14:57
it wasn't an MIT professor,
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to nije bio profesor s MIT-a,
14:59
it wasn't a CalTech student,
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niti je to bio student CalTech-a,
15:01
it was a person from England, from Manchester,
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nego je to bila osoba iz Engleske, iz Manchestera,
15:04
a woman who, during the day,
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žena koja je tijekom dana
15:08
was an executive assistant at a rehab clinic
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bila izvršni asistent u klinici za odvikavanje
15:11
and, at night, was the world's best protein folder.
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a tijekom noći je bila najbolji slagač proteina na svijetu.
15:16
Ladies and gentlemen,
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Dame i gospodo,
15:18
what gives me tremendous confidence
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ono što mi daje iznimno povjerenje
15:20
in the future
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u budućnost,
15:24
is the fact that we are now more empowered as individuals
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jest činjenica da smo sada kao pojedinci ojačani
15:28
to take on the grand challenges of this planet.
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za savladavanje svjetskih izazova.
15:31
We have the tools with this exponential technology.
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Imamo alate s ovom eksponencijalno rastućom tehnologijom.
15:34
We have the passion of the DIY innovator.
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Imamo strast kao inovatori.
15:37
We have the capital of the techno-philanthropist.
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Imamo kapital kao tehnološki filantropi.
15:40
And we have three billion new minds
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I konačno, imamo tri milijarde novih umova
15:42
coming online to work with us
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koji dolaze online da bi radili s nama
15:44
to solve the grand challenges,
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na rješavanju svjetskih izazova
15:46
to do that which we must do.
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i da bi napravili ono što se treba napraviti.
15:50
We are living into extraordinary decades ahead.
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Iznimna su desetljeća ispred nas.
15:52
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
15:54
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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