Ivan Krastev: Can democracy exist without trust?

Prevodilac: Tatjana Jevdjic Lektor: Milica A.

I'm afraid I'm one of those speakers

Bojim se da sam jedan od onih govornika

you hope you're not going to meet at TED.

za koje se nadate da nećete susresti na TED-u.

First, I don't have a mobile,

Kao prvo, nemam mobilni telefon,

so I'm on the safe side.

tako da sam siguran po tom pitanju.

Secondly, a political theorist

Drugo, politički teoretičar

who's going to talk about the crisis of democracy

koji namerava da govori o krizi demokratije

is probably not the most exciting topic you can think about.

verovatno i nije najzanimljivija tema koju možete zamisliti.

And plus, I'm not going to give you any answers.

Pored toga, neću vam dati nikakve odgovore.

I'm much more trying to add to some of the questions we're talking about.

Više ću pokušati da dodam neka pitanja o kojima ćemo razgovarati.

And one of the things that I want to question

Jedna od stvari koju želim da preispitam

is this very popular hope these days

je ova veoma popularna nada današnjeg vremena

that transparency and openness

da transparentnost i otvorenost

can restore the trust in democratic institutions.

mogu vratiti poverenje u demokratske institucije.

There is one more reason for you to be suspicious about me.

Ima još jedan razlog zbog kog treba da ste sumnjičavi u vezi sa mnom.

You people, the Church of TED, are a very optimistic community.

Vi ste, kao Crkva TED-a, veoma optimistična zajednica.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Basically you believe in complexity, but not in ambiguity.

U suštini, verujete u složenost, ali ne u dvosmislenost.

As you have been told, I'm Bulgarian.

Kao što vam je rečeno, ja sam Bugarin.

And according to the surveys,

A prema nekim istraživanjima,

we are marked the most pessimistic people in the world.

mi Bugari smo najpesimističniji narod na svetu.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

The Economist magazine recently wrote an article

U časopisu "Ekonomist" nedavno je objavljen članak

covering one of the recent studies on happiness,

o jednoj nedavno sprovedenoj studiji o sreći,

and the title was "The Happy, the Unhappy and the Bulgarians."

a naslov je bio "Srećni, nesrećni i Bugari".

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So now when you know what to expect,

Sada kada znate šta da očekujete,

let's give you the story.

hajde da krenem sa pričom.

And this is a rainy election day in a small country --

Izborni je dan, uz to kišovit, u jednoj maloj zemlji -

that can be my country, but could be also your country.

koja bi mogla biti moja zemlja, ali i vaša.

And because of the rain until four o'clock in the afternoon,

I upravo zbog kiše, sve do četiri sata posle podne

nobody went to the polling stations.

niko se nije pojavio na glasačkim mestima.

But then the rain stopped,

Zatim, kiša je prestala i

people went to vote.

ljudi su otišli da glasaju.

And when the votes had been counted,

Kada su glasovi prebrojani,

three-fourths of the people have voted with a blank ballot.

tri četvrtine glasača se opredelilo za prazne listiće.

The government and the opposition,

I vlada i opozicija

they have been simply paralyzed.

su jednostavno bili paralizovani.

Because you know what to do about the protests.

Zna se šta treba uraditi u vezi sa protestima.

You know who to arrest, who to negotiate with.

Znate koga da uhapsite, a sa kim da pregovarate.

But what to do about people who are voting with a blank ballot?

Ali šta učiniti sa ljudima koji su glasali praznim listićem?

So the government decided to have the elections once again.

Zbog toga je vlada odlučila da ponovo raspiše izbore.

And this time even a greater number,

Ovoga puta je čak veći broj,

83 percent of the people, voted with blank ballots.

83 posto glasača, glasao praznim listićima.

Basically they went to the ballot boxes

Jednostavno su otišli na glasačka mesta

to tell that they have nobody to vote for.

kako bi rekli da nemaju za koga da glasaju.

This is the opening of a beautiful novel by Jose Saramago

Ovo je uvod predivnog romana Žozea Saramaga

called "Seeing."

"Viđenje".

But in my view it very well captures

Meni se čini da taj uvod izvrsno opisuje

part of the problem that we have with democracy in Europe these days.

deo problema demokratije u Evropi sa kojim se suočavamo danas.

On one level nobody's questioning

S jedne strane, niko ne dovodi u pitanje

that democracy is the best form of government.

da je demokratija najbolji vid vladavine.

Democracy is the only game in town.

Demokratija je jedini izbor.

The problem is that many people start to believe

Problem je u tome što mnogi počinju da veruju

that it is not a game worth playing.

da to i nije baš pravi izbor.

For the last 30 years, political scientists have observed

Poslednjih trideset godina, politikolozi su primetili

that there is a constant decline in electoral turnout,

stalan pad izlaznosti na izborima

and the people who are least interested to vote

i da su najmanje zainteresovani da glasaju

are the people whom you expect are going to gain most out of voting.

oni ljudi za koje očekujete da će dobiti najviše glasanjem.

I mean the unemployed, the under-privileged.

Mislim na nezaposlene i siromašne.

And this is a major issue.

To je suštinsko pitanje.

Because especially now with the economic crisis,

Naročito sada sa ekonomskom krizom,

you can see that the trust in politics,

možemo da vidimo da su poverenje u politiku

that the trust in democratic institutions,

i poverenje u demokratske institucije,

was really destroyed.

zaista uništeni.

According to the latest survey being done by the European Commission,

Prema poslednjem istraživanju Evropske komisije,

89 percent of the citizens of Europe believe that there is a growing gap

89 posto građana Evrope veruje da je sve veći jaz

between the opinion of the policy-makers and the opinion of the public.

između mišljenja onih koji kreiraju politiku i mišljenja javnosti.

Only 18 percent of Italians and 15 percent of Greeks

Samo 18 posto Italijana i 15 posto Grka

believe that their vote matters.

veruje da je njihov glas bitan.

Basically people start to understand that they can change governments,

U suštini, ljudi počinju da shvataju da mogu promeniti vlade,

but they cannot change policies.

ali ne mogu promeniti politiku.

And the question which I want to ask is the following:

A pitanje koje želim da postavim je sledeće:

How did it happen that we are living in societies

kako je moguće da živimo u društvima

which are much freer than ever before --

koja su slobodnija nego ikada pre -

we have more rights, we can travel easier,

imamo više prava, možemo lakše putovati,

we have access to more information --

imamo pristup većem broju informacija -

at the same time that trust in our democratic institutions

i u isto vreme imamo potpuno srozavanje

basically has collapsed?

poverenja u naše demokratske institucije?

So basically I want to ask:

Želim da pitam sledeće:

What went right and what went wrong in these 50 years

šta je bilo dobro, a šta loše u ovih 50 godina

when we talk about democracy?

kada govorimo o demokratiji?

And I'll start with what went right.

Počeću sa onim što je dobro.

And the first thing that went right was, of course,

Prva stvar koja je bila dobra su, naravno,

these five revolutions which, in my view,

ovih pet revolucija koje su, po mom viđenju,

very much changed the way we're living and deepened our democratic experience.

značajno promenile način na koji živimo i produbile naše demokratsko iskustvo.

And the first was the cultural and social revolution of 1968 and 1970s,

Prvo su bile kulturna i socijalna revolucija 1968. i sedamdesetih,

which put the individual at the center of politics.

koje su stavile pojedinca u središte politike.

It was the human rights moment.

To je bilo vreme ljudskih prava.

Basically this was also a major outbreak, a culture of dissent,

Takođe bio je to i ključni proboj, kultura nezadovoljstva,

a culture of basically non-conformism,

kultura suštinskog nonkonformizma,

which was not known before.

koja do tada nije bila poznata.

So I do believe that even things like that

Verujem da su čak i stvari poput toga

are very much the children of '68 --

u značajnoj meri deca '68. -

nevertheless that most of us had been even not born then.

bez obzira što većina nas u to vreme još nije ni bila rođena.

But after that you have the market revolution of the 1980s.

Nakon toga '80-ih smo imali tržišnu revoluciju.

And nevertheless that many people on the left try to hate it,

Bez obzira što mnogi levičari pokušavaju da je mrze,

the truth is that it was very much the market revolution that sent the message:

istina je da je upravo tržišna revolucija bila ta koja je poslala sledeću poruku:

"The government does not know better."

"Vlada ne zna bolje".

And you have more choice-driven societies.

Od tada imate društva vođena izborima.

And of course, you have 1989 -- the end of Communism, the end of the Cold War.

I naravno, revolucija 1989. - krah komunizma, kraj Hladnog rata.

And it was the birth of the global world.

Tu nastaje globalni svet.

And you have the Internet.

Sada imamo internet.

And this is not the audience to which I'm going to preach

Ovo nije publika kojoj bih želeo propovedati

to what extent the Internet empowered people.

o tome u kolikoj je meri internet osposobio ljude.

It has changed the way we are communicating

Promenio je način na koji komuniciramo

and basically we are viewing politics.

i u suštini, na koji posmatramo politiku.

The very idea of political community totally has changed.

Sama ideja političke zajednice se potpuno izmenila.

And I'm going to name one more revolution,

Pomenuću još jednu revoluciju,

and this is the revolution in brain sciences,

a to je revolucija u kognitivnoj nauci,

which totally changed the way

koja je u potpunosti promenila način

we understand how people are making decisions.

na koji shvatamo kako ljudi donose odluke.

So this is what went right.

Znači, ovo su one stvari koje su dobre.

But if we're going to see what went wrong,

Ali ako pogledamo šta je bilo loše,

we're going to end up with the same five revolutions.

završićemo sa istih pet revolucija.

Because first you have the 1960s and 1970s,

Najpre smo '60-ih i '70-ih imali

cultural and social revolution,

kulturnu i socijalnu revoluciju,

which in a certain way destroyed the idea of a collective purpose.

koje su na izvestan način uništile ideju zajedničke svrhe.

The very idea, all these collective nouns that we have been taught about --

Sama ideja, sve ove zajedničke imenice o kojima su nas učili -

nation, class, family.

nacija, klasa, porodica.

We start to like divorcing, if we're married at all.

Razvod nam se dopao, u slučaju da smo i bili venčani.

All this was very much under attack.

Sve ovo je u velikoj meri bilo izloženo napadima.

And it is so difficult to engage people in politics

Jako je teško uključiti ljude u politiku

when they believe that what really matters

kada veruju da je ono što je zaista važno

is where they personally stand.

zapravo njihovo lično mišljenje.

And you have the market revolution of the 1980s

Imate tržišnu revoluciju tokom '80-ih

and the huge increase of inequality in societies.

i ogroman rast socijalne nejednakosti.

Remember, until the 1970s,

Setite se, sve do '70-ih,

the spread of democracy has always been accompanied

širenje demokratije uvek je bilo propraćeno

by the decline of inequality.

smanjenjem neravnopravnosti.

The more democratic our societies have been,

Što bi društva postajala demokratskija,

the more equal they have been becoming.

sve više je bilo jednakosti.

Now we have the reverse tendency.

Sada imamo obrnutu tendenciju.

The spread of democracy now is very much accompanied

Širenje demokratije je sada u velikoj meri propraćeno

by the increase in inequality.

porastom nejednakosti.

And I find this very much disturbing

Smatram da je to vrlo zabrinjavajuće

when we're talking about what's going on right and wrong

kada govorimo o tome šta je dobro, a šta loše

with democracy these days.

u vezi sa demokratijom danas.

And if you go to 1989 --

A ako se vratimo na 1989. -

something that basically you don't expect that anybody's going to criticize --

nešto što u principu ne očekujete da bi bilo ko kritikovao -

but many are going to tell you, "Listen, it was the end of the Cold War

mnogi će vam reći: "Slušaj, upravo je kraj Hladnog rata

that tore the social contract between the elites and the people in Western Europe."

uništio socijalni sporazum između elita i običnih ljudi u Zapadnoj Evropi."

When the Soviet Union was still there,

Dok je još postojao Sovjetski Savez,

the rich and the powerful, they needed the people,

bogatima i moćnima je bio potreban narod,

because they feared them.

jer su ga se plašili.

Now the elites basically have been liberated.

Elite su sada u principu oslobođene.

They're very mobile. You cannot tax them.

Dosta su mobilne. Ne možete im nametnuti poreze.

And basically they don't fear the people.

One se zapravo ne plaše naroda.

So as a result of it, you have this very strange situation

Kao rezultat toga, imamo dosta neobičnu situaciju

in which the elites basically got out of the control of the voters.

da su se elite otele kontroli glasača.

So this is not by accident

Nije slučajnost

that the voters are not interested to vote anymore.

da glasači više nisu zainteresovani da glasaju.

And when we talk about the Internet,

Kada pričamo o internetu,

yes, it's true, the Internet connected all of us,

istina je da nas internet sve povezuje,

but we also know that the Internet created these echo chambers and political ghettos

ali takođe moramo znati da je internet stvorio i ove odjeke i političke getoe

in which for all your life you can stay with the political community you belong to.

u kojima možete ostati do kraja života sa političkom zajednicom kojoj pripadate.

And it's becoming more and more difficult

Sve je teže

to understand the people who are not like you.

razumeti one koji nisu poput vas.

I know that many people here

Znam da mnogi među vama

have been splendidly speaking about the digital world and the possibility for cooperation,

fantastično govore o digitalnom svetu i mogućnostima saradnje,

but [have you] seen what the digital world has done to American politics these days?

ali vidite li šta je taj digitalni svet danas učinio američkoj politici?

This is also partly a result of the Internet revolution.

To je delimično rezultat internet revolucije.

This is the other side of the things that we like.

To je druga strana onoga što nam se sviđa.

And when you go to the brain sciences,

A kada govorimo o kognitivnoj nauci,

what political consultants learned from the brain scientists

ono što su politički savetnici naučili od kognitivnih naučnika

is don't talk to me about ideas anymore,

je da više ne govore o idejama,

don't talk to me about policy programs.

da ne govore o političkim programima.

What really matters is basically to manipulate the emotions of the people.

Ono što je zaista bitno je da manipulišu osećanjima ljudi.

And you have this very strongly

To je toliko snažno prisutno da,

to the extent that, even if you see when we talk about revolutions these days,

dok u današnje vreme govorimo o revolucijama,

these revolutions are not named anymore around ideologies or ideas.

te revolucije više ne nazivamo po ideologijama ili idejama.

Before, revolutions used to have ideological names.

Revolucije su nekada imale ideološka imena.

They could be communist, they could be liberal,

Mogle su da budu komunističke, liberalne,

they could be fascist or Islamic.

mogle su da budu fašističke ili islamske.

Now the revolutions are called under the medium which is most used.

Sada se revolucije nazivaju prema mediju koji se najviše koristi.

You have Facebook revolutions, Twitter revolutions.

Tako imamo Fejsbuk revoluciju, Tviter revoluciju.

The content doesn't matter anymore, the problem is the media.

Sadržaj više nije bitan, problem je u mediju.

I'm saying this because one of my major points

Ovo kažem jer je jedna od glavnih tačaka to

is what went right is also what went wrong.

da ono što je dobro, istovremeno je i loše.

And when we're now trying to see how we can change the situation,

Sada kada pokušavamo da shvatimo kako da promenimo situaciju,

when basically we're trying to see what can be done about democracy,

šta da uradimo sa demokratijom,

we should keep this ambiguity in mind.

treba da imamo na umu ovu dvoznačnost.

Because probably some of the things that we love most

Verovatno će neke stvari koje najviše volimo

are going to be also the things that can hurt us most.

istovremeno biti i stvari koje nas najviše mogu povrediti.

These days it's very popular to believe

U današnje vreme je jako popularno verovanje

that this push for transparency,

da ovaj poriv za transparentnošću,

this kind of a combination between active citizens, new technologies

ova kombinacija aktivnih građana, novih tehnologija

and much more transparency-friendly legislation

i transparentno-prijateljskog zakonodavstva

can restore trust in politics.

može da vrati poverenje u politiku.

You believe that when you have these new technologies and people who are ready to use this,

Verujete da je, kada imate sve ove nove tehnologije i ljude koji su spremni da ih koriste,

it can make it much more difficult for the governments to lie,

vladama mnogo teže da lažu,

it's going to be more difficult for them to steal

da će im biti teže da kradu

and probably even going to be more difficult for them to kill.

i da će im verovatno biti još teže da ubiju.

This is probably true.

To je verovatno tačno.

But I do believe that we should be also very clear

Ali verujem da takođe moramo da budemo jasni

that now when we put the transparency at the center of politics

da sada kada stavimo transparentnost u samo središte politike,

where the message is, "It's transparency, stupid."

tu je poruka da je transparentnost glupa.

Transparency is not about restoring trust in institutions.

Transparentnost ne znači vraćanje poverenja u institucije.

Transparency is politics' management of mistrust.

Transparentnost je upravljanje nepoverenjem u politici.

We are assuming that our societies are going to be based on mistrust.

Podrazumevamo da će naša društva biti zasnovana na nepoverenju.

And by the way, mistrust was always very important for democracy.

Nepoverenje je oduvek bilo jako bitno za demokratiju.

This is why you have checks and balances.

Zbog toga imate stalne provere.

This is why basically you have all this creative mistrust

Zbog toga i imate ovo kreativno nepoverenje

between the representatives and those whom they represent.

između predstavnika i onih koje oni predstavljaju.

But when politics is only management of mistrust,

Međutim, kada se politika svede samo na upravljanje nepoverenjem,

then -- I'm very glad that "1984" has been mentioned --

onda - a veoma mi je drago da je pomenuta "1984." -

now we're going to have "1984" in reverse.

znači da ćemo sada imati "1984." obrnutim redosledom.

It's not going to be the Big Brother watching you,

To neće biti Veliki brat koji nas posmatra,

it's going to be we being the Big Brother

već ćemo mi biti Veliki brat

watching the political class.

koji posmatra političku klasu.

But is this the idea of a free society?

Ali, da li je to ideja slobodnog društva?

For example, can you imagine

Na primer, možete li da zamislite

that decent, civic, talented people are going to run for office

da će se pristojni, građanski orijentisani, talentovani ljudi kandidovati za pozicije

if they really do believe

ukoliko zaista veruju

that politics is also about managing mistrust?

da je politika takođe i upravljanje nepoverenjem?

Are you not afraid with all these technologies

Zar se ne plašite da će sve ove tehnologije

that are going to track down

koje će ući u trag

any statement the politicians are going to make on certain issues,

svakoj izjavi političara o određenim pitanjima,

are you not afraid that this is going to be a very strong signal to politicians

zar se ne plašite da će to biti izuzetno snažan signal političarima

to repeat their positions, even the very wrong positions,

da ponavljaju svoje pozicije, čak i one veoma pogrešne

because consistency is going to be more important than common sense?

jer će doslednost biti mnogo važnija od zdravog razuma?

And the Americans who are in the room,

A vi Amerikanci koji ste sa nama danas,

are you not afraid that your presidents are going to govern

zar se ne plašite da će vaši predsednici vladati

on the basis of what they said in the primary elections?

na osnovu onoga što su izjavili tokom primarnih izbora?

I find this extremely important,

Smatram to izuzetno značajnim

because democracy is about people changing their views

jer demokratija podrazumeva da ljudi menjaju svoja mišljenja

based on rational arguments and discussions.

na osnovu racionalnih argumenata i razgovora.

And we can lose this with the very noble idea

Mogli bismo izgubiti ovu izuzetno plemenitu ideju

to keep people accountable

zadržavanja odgovornosti

for showing the people that we're not going to tolerate

radi pokazivanja netolerancije prema političarima

politicians the opportunism in politics.

za oportunizam.

So for me this is extremely important.

To je za mene izuzetno bitno.

And I do believe that when we're discussing politics these days,

Verujem da kada danas razgovaramo o politici,

probably it makes sense

verovatno ima smisla

to look also at this type of a story.

pogledati i ovu vrstu priče.

But also don't forget, any unveiling is also veiling.

Ali ne zaboravite da je svako otkrivanje istovremeno i skrivanje.

[Regardless of] how transparent our governments want to be,

Bez obzira na to koliko naše vlade žele da budu transparentne,

they're going to be selectively transparent.

one će biti selektivno transparentne.

In a small country that could be my country,

U maloj zemlji, koja bi lako mogla da bude moja zemlja,

but could be also your country,

ali i vaša,

they took a decision -- it is a real case story --

doneli su odluku - ovo je istinita priča -

that all of the governmental decisions,

da će sve odluke vlade

discussions of the council of ministers,

i sve rasprave Saveta ministara

were going to be published on the Internet

biti objavljene na internetu

24 hours after the council discussions took place.

24 časa nakon rasprave.

And the public was extremely all for it.

Javnost je u ogromnom broju bila za to.

So I had the opportunity to talk to the prime minister,

Tako sam imao priliku da razgovaram sa premijerom

why he made this decision.

zbog čega je doneo takvu odluku.

He said, "Listen, this is the best way

Rekao je: "Slušaj, ovo je najbolji način

to keep the mouths of my ministers closed.

da začepim usta nekima od ministara

Because it's going to be very difficult for them to dissent

jer će im biti jako teško da se usprotive

knowing that 24 hours after

znajući da će 24 časa nakon toga

this is going to be on the public space,

sve biti u javnosti,

and this is in a certain way going to be a political crisis."

što bi zasigurno proizvelo političku krizu."

So when we talk about transparency,

Tako da kada govorimo o transparentnosti,

when we talk about openness,

kada govorimo o otvorenosti,

I really do believe that what we should keep in mind

zaista smatram da ono što moramo imati na umu

is that what went right is what went wrong.

je da je ono što je dobro, istovremeno i loše.

And this is Goethe, who is neither Bulgarian nor a political scientist,

A ovo je rekao Gete, koji nije bio ni Bugarin, niti politikolog,

some centuries ago he said,

pre nekoliko vekova:

"There is a big shadow where there is much light."

"Velika je sena tamo gde je dosta svetlosti."

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)