Ivan Krastev: Can democracy exist without trust?

譯者: Alex Chiu 審譯者: Anny Chung

I'm afraid I'm one of those speakers

我很擔心我是一個

you hope you're not going to meet at TED.

你不想在 TED 碰上的演講者

First, I don't have a mobile,

首先，我沒有手機

so I'm on the safe side.

所以我比較安全

Secondly, a political theorist

其次，一個政治理論家

who's going to talk about the crisis of democracy

即將談論關於民主危機

is probably not the most exciting topic you can think about.

可能是你能想到最枯燥的題目

And plus, I'm not going to give you any answers.

況且，我不打算給你答案

I'm much more trying to add to some of the questions we're talking about.

我會盡可能地在我們談論的問題中，提出更多質疑

And one of the things that I want to question

並且，我想質疑的問題之一

is this very popular hope these days

是最近廣受矚目

that transparency and openness

透過公開和透明

can restore the trust in democratic institutions.

能夠在民主體制中重新建立信任

There is one more reason for you to be suspicious about me.

這也給各位多一個質疑我的理由

You people, the Church of TED, are a very optimistic community.

你們這些 TED 教派的人，是非常樂觀的團體

(Laughter)

(笑)

Basically you believe in complexity, but not in ambiguity.

基本上你們相信複雜性，但不愛模稜兩可的結局

As you have been told, I'm Bulgarian.

如同你們所知，我是保加利亞人

And according to the surveys,

根據調查

we are marked the most pessimistic people in the world.

我們被認為是世界上最悲觀的人

(Laughter)

(笑)

The Economist magazine recently wrote an article

經濟學人雜誌最近發表一篇文章

covering one of the recent studies on happiness,

報導關於幸福的研究

and the title was "The Happy, the Unhappy and the Bulgarians."

標題是<幸福的人、不幸福的人和保加利亞人>

(Laughter)

(笑)

So now when you know what to expect,

現在，你們知道要期待些甚麼了

let's give you the story.

說個故事給你們聽

And this is a rainy election day in a small country --

發生在一個小國家的一個下雨的投票日

that can be my country, but could be also your country.

這可能是我的國家，有可能是你的國家

And because of the rain until four o'clock in the afternoon,

由於下雨的緣故，直到下午 4 點

nobody went to the polling stations.

都沒人前往投票所

But then the rain stopped,

當雨一停

people went to vote.

人們就前往投票

And when the votes had been counted,

當選票開出

three-fourths of the people have voted with a blank ballot.

4 分之 3 的選票是空白的

The government and the opposition,

執政黨和反對黨

they have been simply paralyzed.

他們都嚇呆了

Because you know what to do about the protests.

因為大家都知道如何對付抗議者

You know who to arrest, who to negotiate with.

知道去逮捕誰，去和誰談判

But what to do about people who are voting with a blank ballot?

但是如何面對投空白選票的選民？

So the government decided to have the elections once again.

所以政府決定重選一次

And this time even a greater number,

這一次，卻有更多的

83 percent of the people, voted with blank ballots.

83% 的選民，投下空白票

Basically they went to the ballot boxes

基本上，他們前往投票所

to tell that they have nobody to vote for.

去表明沒有適當的人選

This is the opening of a beautiful novel by Jose Saramago

這是 Jose Saramago 寫的一本出色的小說的開頭

called "Seeing."

書名叫做《看見》

But in my view it very well captures

但是我認為它很切確地捕捉到

part of the problem that we have with democracy in Europe these days.

最近歐洲民主的一些問題

On one level nobody's questioning

某程度來說沒人質疑

that democracy is the best form of government.

民主是最好的政府形式

Democracy is the only game in town.

民主是政治領域中唯一的規則

The problem is that many people start to believe

問題是許多人開始相信

that it is not a game worth playing.

民主不是一個值得遵循的規則

For the last 30 years, political scientists have observed

過去 30 年來，政治學家觀察到

that there is a constant decline in electoral turnout,

投票人數持續下降

and the people who are least interested to vote

那些對於投票最冷感的民眾

are the people whom you expect are going to gain most out of voting.

就是那群你們認為可以從投票中得利的人

I mean the unemployed, the under-privileged.

我指的是那些失業的和沒有特權的人

And this is a major issue.

這就是問題之所在

Because especially now with the economic crisis,

特別在這經濟危機中

you can see that the trust in politics,

你們能看到人們對政治的信賴

that the trust in democratic institutions,

民主體制的信任

was really destroyed.

已經完全被摧毀了

According to the latest survey being done by the European Commission,

根據歐盟委員會最新的調查

89 percent of the citizens of Europe believe that there is a growing gap

歐洲 89% 的公民相信在政策制定者和民眾的看法之間

between the opinion of the policy-makers and the opinion of the public.

存有一道越來越寬的鴻溝

Only 18 percent of Italians and 15 percent of Greeks

只有 18% 的義大利人和 15% 的希臘人

believe that their vote matters.

相信他們的選票是有用的

Basically people start to understand that they can change governments,

基本上，民眾開始了解他們能更換執政者

but they cannot change policies.

但無法改變政策

And the question which I want to ask is the following:

我要問的問題是：

How did it happen that we are living in societies

發生了甚麼事了？我們所居住的社會

which are much freer than ever before --

比以往擁有更多的自由

we have more rights, we can travel easier,

我們有更多權力，更容易旅遊

we have access to more information --

更有管道取得資訊

at the same time that trust in our democratic institutions

但同時，在民主體制中的信任

basically has collapsed?

卻已經崩潰

So basically I want to ask:

我想問的是：

What went right and what went wrong in these 50 years

這 50 年來，當我們討論民主時

when we talk about democracy?

甚麼是對的？甚麼是錯的？

And I'll start with what went right.

我將從做對了甚麼談起

And the first thing that went right was, of course,

做對的第一件事，當然

these five revolutions which, in my view,

在我看來，是這五場革命

very much changed the way we're living and deepened our democratic experience.

深深改變了我們的生活方式和提升我們的民主經驗

And the first was the cultural and social revolution of 1968 and 1970s,

首先是 1968 年和 70 年代的文化與社會革命

which put the individual at the center of politics.

把個人推向政治中心

It was the human rights moment.

這是人權的里程碑

Basically this was also a major outbreak, a culture of dissent,

基本上這也是一個主要的突破，形成一種異議文化

a culture of basically non-conformism,

一種原則上不盲從的文化

which was not known before.

這是以往不為人知的

So I do believe that even things like that

所以我的確相信即使事情就是如此

are very much the children of '68 --

像是 68 年的孩子們 --

nevertheless that most of us had been even not born then.

然而，我們大多數當時都還未出生

But after that you have the market revolution of the 1980s.

之後，我們經歷了 80 年代的市場革命

And nevertheless that many people on the left try to hate it,

儘管許多左派人士排斥它

the truth is that it was very much the market revolution that sent the message:

市場革命仍然傳遞出一個訊息：

"The government does not know better."

｢政府懂的並沒有比較多。｣

And you have more choice-driven societies.

於是你們有更多可選擇的社會模式

And of course, you have 1989 -- the end of Communism, the end of the Cold War.

當然，你們經歷了 1989 年，共產主義和冷戰的結束

And it was the birth of the global world.

世界村從此誕生

And you have the Internet.

你們有網際網路

And this is not the audience to which I'm going to preach

我想我不需對這裡的觀眾鼓吹

to what extent the Internet empowered people.

網路對人們的影響力

It has changed the way we are communicating

它已經改變了我們的溝通方式

and basically we are viewing politics.

以及觀察政治的方式

The very idea of political community totally has changed.

政治團體的觀念已全然改觀

And I'm going to name one more revolution,

我再提出一種革命

and this is the revolution in brain sciences,

這是大腦科學的革命

which totally changed the way

完全改變我們原本以為的

we understand how people are making decisions.

人們如何做決定的方式

So this is what went right.

以上是做對的部分

But if we're going to see what went wrong,

但是如果我們去看做錯的部分

we're going to end up with the same five revolutions.

也是源自於同樣的 5 場革命

Because first you have the 1960s and 1970s,

首先，你們經歷了 1960 和 1970 年代的

cultural and social revolution,

文化及社會革命

which in a certain way destroyed the idea of a collective purpose.

這也完全破壞了集體目標的觀念

The very idea, all these collective nouns that we have been taught about --

這個特有的觀念，像是我們曾經學過的群體名詞 --

nation, class, family.

國家、階級和家庭

We start to like divorcing, if we're married at all.

人們輕易離婚，有些根本不結婚

All this was very much under attack.

這些觀念受到很大的攻擊

And it is so difficult to engage people in politics

而且當民眾相信真正重要的是

when they believe that what really matters

個人支持的立場時

is where they personally stand.

就很難讓民眾因政治團結

And you have the market revolution of the 1980s

80 年代的市場革命

and the huge increase of inequality in societies.

社會同時有產生了巨大的不平等

Remember, until the 1970s,

要記得，直到 1970 年代以前

the spread of democracy has always been accompanied

民主的發展總是伴隨著

by the decline of inequality.

不平等的降低

The more democratic our societies have been,

社會越民主

the more equal they have been becoming.

人民就越平等

Now we have the reverse tendency.

現在的趨勢剛好相反

The spread of democracy now is very much accompanied

民主的發展，伴隨著更多

by the increase in inequality.

不平等的產生

And I find this very much disturbing

我發現這讓我們很無力

when we're talking about what's going on right and wrong

當討論對於這幾年的民主

with democracy these days.

甚麼做對了和甚麼做錯了的時候

And if you go to 1989 --

如果回到 1989 (冷戰結束) --

something that basically you don't expect that anybody's going to criticize --

一個你們認為無可挑剔的事件 --

but many are going to tell you, "Listen, it was the end of the Cold War

還是有許多人會告訴你：｢注意，冷戰結束將造成

that tore the social contract between the elites and the people in Western Europe."

西歐的菁英份子和人民之間的社會契約被撕毀。｣

When the Soviet Union was still there,

當蘇聯仍在時

the rich and the powerful, they needed the people,

有錢有勢的人，需要民眾支持

because they feared them.

因為他們害怕人民

Now the elites basically have been liberated.

現在，這些菁英已經被解放

They're very mobile. You cannot tax them.

他們可以到處遷移，你們課不到他們的稅

And basically they don't fear the people.

而且他們現在也不再懼怕人民

So as a result of it, you have this very strange situation

結果是，你們面臨這個陌生的情況

in which the elites basically got out of the control of the voters.

這些菁英擺脫了選民的控制

So this is not by accident

因此可意料，選民將不再有興趣去投票

that the voters are not interested to vote anymore.

因此可意料，選民將不再有興趣去投票

And when we talk about the Internet,

並且，當談到網際網路

yes, it's true, the Internet connected all of us,

的確，網路聯繫所有人

but we also know that the Internet created these echo chambers and political ghettos

我們也知道，網路造成空蕩蕩的會議室和少數政客的佔領區

in which for all your life you can stay with the political community you belong to.

在網路上，讓你和所屬的政治團體能廝守終身

And it's becoming more and more difficult

但是，要去了解和你立場不同的人

to understand the people who are not like you.

會變得更困難

I know that many people here

我知道這裡有許多人

have been splendidly speaking about the digital world and the possibility for cooperation,

對於數位世界和合作的可能，有真知灼見

but [have you] seen what the digital world has done to American politics these days?

但是你們可看到這些年來，數位世界對於美國政治的影響？

This is also partly a result of the Internet revolution.

這也是一部份的網路革命

This is the other side of the things that we like.

凡事都有一體兩面

And when you go to the brain sciences,

再看看大腦科學

what political consultants learned from the brain scientists

這些政治智庫從大腦科學家身上學到的是

is don't talk to me about ideas anymore,

不要再和我討論思想

don't talk to me about policy programs.

不要再和我討論政策方案

What really matters is basically to manipulate the emotions of the people.

最重要的事是去操作群眾的情感

And you have this very strongly

並且你們很強烈的感受到

to the extent that, even if you see when we talk about revolutions these days,

某種程度上，即使你們知道當我們談論近年來的革命時

these revolutions are not named anymore around ideologies or ideas.

這些革命不再因為意識形態和觀念被命名

Before, revolutions used to have ideological names.

之前，革命通常以意識型態的方式被命名

They could be communist, they could be liberal,

可能是共產黨，可能是自由派

they could be fascist or Islamic.

可能是法西斯或伊斯蘭教派

Now the revolutions are called under the medium which is most used.

現代的革命，習慣以傳播媒介命名

You have Facebook revolutions, Twitter revolutions.

你們有臉書革命，推特革命

The content doesn't matter anymore, the problem is the media.

內容不再重要，問題是哪種媒體

I'm saying this because one of my major points

我之所以這麼說的原因是，我的要點之一是

is what went right is also what went wrong.

那些對的事，同時也是錯的

And when we're now trying to see how we can change the situation,

當我們現在試著要了解如何改變這個情況

when basically we're trying to see what can be done about democracy,

當我們從根本了解，我們能為民主做些甚麼

we should keep this ambiguity in mind.

我們應該接納模稜兩可的情況

Because probably some of the things that we love most

因為可能有些我們所愛的

are going to be also the things that can hurt us most.

同時也傷害我們最深

These days it's very popular to believe

這些日子大家普遍相信

that this push for transparency,

推動透明化

this kind of a combination between active citizens, new technologies

這種結合積極公民、新科技

and much more transparency-friendly legislation

和對於透明化較友善的立法

can restore trust in politics.

可以在政治上重建信任

You believe that when you have these new technologies and people who are ready to use this,

你們相信擁有這些新科技，和使用新科技的民眾

it can make it much more difficult for the governments to lie,

會使政府更困難去欺瞞

it's going to be more difficult for them to steal

也讓他們要偷雞摸狗變得更困難

and probably even going to be more difficult for them to kill.

或許也能讓他們意圖殺戮的行動更困難

This is probably true.

或許這是真的

But I do believe that we should be also very clear

但我仍認為我們應該明白

that now when we put the transparency at the center of politics

現在若是將透明化置入政治中心

where the message is, "It's transparency, stupid."

但是那裏透露的訊息是，透明化是愚蠢的

Transparency is not about restoring trust in institutions.

透明化並不是將信任重建在制度上

Transparency is politics' management of mistrust.

透明化是政治上的｢不信任的處理方式｣

We are assuming that our societies are going to be based on mistrust.

意思是我們已預設社會是建立在不信任的基礎上

And by the way, mistrust was always very important for democracy.

同時，對於民主而言，不信任一直扮演重要的角色

This is why you have checks and balances.

這就是為什麼要有權力制衡

This is why basically you have all this creative mistrust

這基本上是為什麼有各式各樣的不信任

between the representatives and those whom they represent.

存在於民意代表和其所代表的民眾之間

But when politics is only management of mistrust,

但是當政治淪為不信任的處理方式時

then -- I'm very glad that "1984" has been mentioned --

我很慶幸剛剛提到過｢1984｣ --

now we're going to have "1984" in reverse.

現在我們將｢1984｣的情節顛倒過來

It's not going to be the Big Brother watching you,

不再是｢老大哥｣隨時隨地看著你們

it's going to be we being the Big Brother

我們自己來當｢老大哥｣

watching the political class.

監看這些政治人物

But is this the idea of a free society?

這是否是自由社會的概念？

For example, can you imagine

例如，你們認為

that decent, civic, talented people are going to run for office

這些正派的、具公民身分的、有潛力的人，還會去參選

if they really do believe

如果他們深信

that politics is also about managing mistrust?

政治只是用來處理不信任的方式？

Are you not afraid with all these technologies

難道你們不懼怕這些科技

that are going to track down

能夠挖掘出

any statement the politicians are going to make on certain issues,

任何政治人物在特定議題說過的話

are you not afraid that this is going to be a very strong signal to politicians

難道你們不害怕？對政治人物來說，重要的是

to repeat their positions, even the very wrong positions,

去重複他們的立場，甚至是錯得離譜的立場

because consistency is going to be more important than common sense?

因為堅持遠重要於常識

And the Americans who are in the room,

在這個房間的美國人

are you not afraid that your presidents are going to govern

難道你們不害怕？你們的總統將依照

on the basis of what they said in the primary elections?

初選時的政見，來掌管這個國家

I find this extremely important,

我發現這至關重要

because democracy is about people changing their views

因為民主是民眾基於理性的爭辯和討論後

based on rational arguments and discussions.

改變他們的觀點

And we can lose this with the very noble idea

而且我們可能放棄這種想法

to keep people accountable

只為了博取民眾的信賴

for showing the people that we're not going to tolerate

僅僅作秀給民眾看，我們不會容忍

politicians the opportunism in politics.

政客在政治上的投機主義

So for me this is extremely important.

對我來說，這是非常重要的

And I do believe that when we're discussing politics these days,

我確信當我們近來討論政治

probably it makes sense

可能也順理成章地

to look also at this type of a story.

視為這一類型的故事

But also don't forget, any unveiling is also veiling.

也別忘了，任何的揭露，同時也是一種掩飾

[Regardless of] how transparent our governments want to be,

[不論]我們的政府想要多麼透明

they're going to be selectively transparent.

他們也是選擇性的透明

In a small country that could be my country,

在一個小國，可能是我的國家

but could be also your country,

也可能是你們的國家

they took a decision -- it is a real case story --

他們做了決定，這是真實的事情

that all of the governmental decisions,

所有政府的決定

discussions of the council of ministers,

所有內閣會議的討論

were going to be published on the Internet

在會議達成決議後的 24 小時，將會上傳到網路

24 hours after the council discussions took place.

在會議達成決議後的 24 小時，將會上傳到網路

And the public was extremely all for it.

而民眾也很贊同這個作法

So I had the opportunity to talk to the prime minister,

我有機會和首相問到這件事

why he made this decision.

為什麼會做這個決定

He said, "Listen, this is the best way

他說：｢聽著，這是最好的方法

to keep the mouths of my ministers closed.

能讓我的閣員閉嘴

Because it's going to be very difficult for them to dissent

這讓他們很難提出反對意見

knowing that 24 hours after

因為他們知道 24 小時候

this is going to be on the public space,

這些將會公諸大眾

and this is in a certain way going to be a political crisis."

某方面來說，這會引起政治危機。｣

So when we talk about transparency,

所以當我們談到透明度

when we talk about openness,

當我們談到開放

I really do believe that what we should keep in mind

我真的深深相信，我們應該有所警覺

is that what went right is what went wrong.

甚麼是對的，甚麼是錯的

And this is Goethe, who is neither Bulgarian nor a political scientist,

這是歌德，他不是保加利亞人，也不是政治學家

some centuries ago he said,

在幾個世紀前說的

"There is a big shadow where there is much light."

｢陽光越強處，陰影越大。｣

Thank you very much.

非常謝謝大家

(Applause)

(鼓掌)