Ivan Krastev: Can democracy exist without trust?

Prevoditelj: Zvonimir Mimica Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

I'm afraid I'm one of those speakers

Bojim se da sam jedan od onih govornika

you hope you're not going to meet at TED.

za koje se nadate da nećete susresti na TED-u.

First, I don't have a mobile,

Kao prvo, nemam mobitel,

so I'm on the safe side.

tako da sam s te strane siguran.

Secondly, a political theorist

Drugo, politički teoretičar

who's going to talk about the crisis of democracy

koji namjerava govoriti o krizi demokracije

is probably not the most exciting topic you can think about.

vjerojatno i nije najuzbudljivija tema koju možete zamisliti.

And plus, I'm not going to give you any answers.

Poviše toga, neću vam davati nikakve odgovore.

I'm much more trying to add to some of the questions we're talking about.

Prije pokušavam doprinijeti nekim pritanjima o kojima govorimo.

And one of the things that I want to question

I jedna od stvari koju želim preispitati

is this very popular hope these days

jest ova današnja vrlo popularna nada

that transparency and openness

da transparentnost i otvorenost

can restore the trust in democratic institutions.

mogu vratiti povjerenje u demokratske institucije.

There is one more reason for you to be suspicious about me.

Postoji i jedan više razlog za vašu sumnjičavost prema meni.

You people, the Church of TED, are a very optimistic community.

Vi ste, kao Crkva TED-a, vrlo optimistična zajednica.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Basically you believe in complexity, but not in ambiguity.

U osnovi vjerujete u složenost, ali ne u dvosmislenost.

As you have been told, I'm Bulgarian.

Kao što vam je rečeno, ja sam Bugarin.

And according to the surveys,

A prema istraživanjima,

we are marked the most pessimistic people in the world.

mi smo obilježeni kao najpesimističniji ljudi na svijetu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

The Economist magazine recently wrote an article

Časopis "Economist" nedavno je objavio članak

covering one of the recent studies on happiness,

o jednom od nedavnih istraživanja o sreći,

and the title was "The Happy, the Unhappy and the Bulgarians."

a naslov je bio "Sretni, nesretni i Bugari."

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So now when you know what to expect,

Tako, sad kad znate što očekivati,

let's give you the story.

evo slijedi i priča.

And this is a rainy election day in a small country --

Kišni je izborni dan u jednoj maloj zemlji --

that can be my country, but could be also your country.

koja bi mogla biti moja, ali također i vaša zemlja.

And because of the rain until four o'clock in the afternoon,

I zbog kiše, sve do četiri sata poslijepodne

nobody went to the polling stations.

nitko nije izlazio na birališta.

But then the rain stopped,

Kiša je zatim prestala

people went to vote.

i ljudi su otišli glasovati.

And when the votes had been counted,

I kad su prebrojali glasove,

three-fourths of the people have voted with a blank ballot.

tri četvrtine ljudi glasovalo je praznim glasačkim listićem.

The government and the opposition,

I vlada i opozicija

they have been simply paralyzed.

bili su jednostavno paralizirani.

Because you know what to do about the protests.

Jer, znate što trebati učiniti u svezi prosvjeda.

You know who to arrest, who to negotiate with.

Znate koga treba uhititi, s kim pregovarati.

But what to do about people who are voting with a blank ballot?

Ali što učiniti s ljudima koji glasaju praznim glasačkim listićem?

So the government decided to have the elections once again.

I tako je vlada odlučila još jednom raspisati izbore.

And this time even a greater number,

Ovog puta čak je i veći broj,

83 percent of the people, voted with blank ballots.

83% ljudi, glasovalo praznim glasačkim listićima.

Basically they went to the ballot boxes

Jednostavno su došli na glasačka mjesta

to tell that they have nobody to vote for.

poručiti da nemaju za koga glasati.

This is the opening of a beautiful novel by Jose Saramago

Ovo je uvodnik u predivan roman Josea Saramaga

called "Seeing."

pod nazivom "Viđenje".

But in my view it very well captures

S mojeg gledišta on vrlo dobro opisuje

part of the problem that we have with democracy in Europe these days.

dio problema kojeg danas imamo s demokracijom u Europi.

On one level nobody's questioning

S jedne strane, nitko ne dovodi u pitanje

that democracy is the best form of government.

demokraciju kao najbolji oblik vladavine.

Democracy is the only game in town.

Demokracija je jedini pravi izbor.

The problem is that many people start to believe

Problem je što mnogi ljudi počinju vjerovati

that it is not a game worth playing.

da to nije igra koju se isplati igrati.

For the last 30 years, political scientists have observed

Zadnjih 30 godina politički znanstvenici su promatrali

that there is a constant decline in electoral turnout,

stalno opadanje izlaženja na izbore,

and the people who are least interested to vote

te su ljudi koji su najmanje zainteresirani glasovati

are the people whom you expect are going to gain most out of voting.

oni za koje bi očekivali da će dobiti najviše od glasovanja.

I mean the unemployed, the under-privileged.

Mislim na nezaposlene, marginalizirane.

And this is a major issue.

I to je suštinsko pitanje.

Because especially now with the economic crisis,

Jer, posebice sada s ekonomskom krizom,

you can see that the trust in politics,

možete primijetiti da je povjerenje u politiku,

that the trust in democratic institutions,

povjerenje u demokratske institucije,

was really destroyed.

zaista uništeno.

According to the latest survey being done by the European Commission,

Prema zadnjem istraživanju od strane Europske komisije,

89 percent of the citizens of Europe believe that there is a growing gap

89% građana Europe vjeruje u rastući rascjep

between the opinion of the policy-makers and the opinion of the public.

između mišljenja kreatora politika i javnog mijenja.

Only 18 percent of Italians and 15 percent of Greeks

Samo 18% Talijana i 15% Grka

believe that their vote matters.

vjeruje da je njihov glas bitan.

Basically people start to understand that they can change governments,

U biti, ljudi počinju razumijevati da mogu promijeniti vlade,

but they cannot change policies.

ali ne mogu promijeniti politike.

And the question which I want to ask is the following:

Pitanje koje želim postaviti je slijedeće:

How did it happen that we are living in societies

Kako je došlo do toga da živimo u društvima

which are much freer than ever before --

koja su mnogo slobodnija nego ikad prije --

we have more rights, we can travel easier,

imamo više prava, možemo lakše putovati,

we have access to more information --

imamo pristup većoj količini informacija --

at the same time that trust in our democratic institutions

a u isto vrijeme povjerenje u naše demokratske institucije

basically has collapsed?

se praktički urušilo?

So basically I want to ask:

I tako, u biti želim vas pitati:

What went right and what went wrong in these 50 years

što je bilo dobro, a što je pošlo krivo u ovih 50 godina

when we talk about democracy?

kad govorimo o demokraciji?

And I'll start with what went right.

Započet ću s onim što je bilo dobro.

And the first thing that went right was, of course,

Prva stvar koja je išla u pravom smjeru jesu, naravno,

these five revolutions which, in my view,

ovih pet revolucija koje su, s mojeg gledišta,

very much changed the way we're living and deepened our democratic experience.

vrlo mnogo promijenile naš način življenja i produbile naše demokratsko iskustvo.

And the first was the cultural and social revolution of 1968 and 1970s,

Prva je bila kulturna i socijalna revolucija 1968. i 1970-ih,

which put the individual at the center of politics.

koja je postavila pojedinca u središte politike.

It was the human rights moment.

Bilo je to vrijeme ljudskih prava.

Basically this was also a major outbreak, a culture of dissent,

U biti, bio je to također i ključni proboj, kultura nezadovoljstva,

a culture of basically non-conformism,

kultura praktičkog nekonformizma,

which was not known before.

koja do tada nije bila poznata.

So I do believe that even things like that

I tako, vjerujem da su čak i takve stvari

are very much the children of '68 --

u značajnoj mjeri djeca '68. --

nevertheless that most of us had been even not born then.

unatoč tome što većina nas tada čak nije bila ni rođena.

But after that you have the market revolution of the 1980s.

Poslije toga uslijedila je tržišna revolucija 1980-ih.

And nevertheless that many people on the left try to hate it,

I unatoč tome što su je mnogi s ljevice pokušali mrziti,

the truth is that it was very much the market revolution that sent the message:

istina jest da je to u značajnoj mjeri bila tržišna revolucija koja je poslala poruku:

"The government does not know better."

"Vlada ne zna bolje."

And you have more choice-driven societies.

Od tada imate izborom-vođena društva.

And of course, you have 1989 -- the end of Communism, the end of the Cold War.

I naravno, imate 1989. -- kraj komunizma, kraj Hladnog rata.

And it was the birth of the global world.

Bilo je to rođenje globalnog svijeta.

And you have the Internet.

Imate i Internet.

And this is not the audience to which I'm going to preach

Vi niste publika kojoj trebam propovjedati o tome

to what extent the Internet empowered people.

u kolikoj mjeri je Internet osnažio ljude.

It has changed the way we are communicating

Promijenio je način na koji komuniciramo

and basically we are viewing politics.

i praktično gledamo na politiku.

The very idea of political community totally has changed.

I sama ideja političke zajednice se potpuno promijenila.

And I'm going to name one more revolution,

Spomenut ću još jednu revoluciju,

and this is the revolution in brain sciences,

a to je revolucija u neuroznanostima,

which totally changed the way

koja je potpuno promijenila

we understand how people are making decisions.

naše razumijevanje načina na koji ljudi donose odluke.

So this is what went right.

Eto, to je ono što je bilo dobro.

But if we're going to see what went wrong,

Međutim, ukoliko želimo vidjet što je pošlo po krivom,

we're going to end up with the same five revolutions.

opet ćemo doći do istih pet revolucija.

Because first you have the 1960s and 1970s,

Jer, prvo imate 1960-te i 1970-te,

cultural and social revolution,

kulturnu i socijalnu revoluciju,

which in a certain way destroyed the idea of a collective purpose.

koja je na određeni način uništila ideju kolektivne svrhe.

The very idea, all these collective nouns that we have been taught about --

Samu ideju, sve ove skupne imenice o kojima su nas učili --

nation, class, family.

nacija, klasa, obitelj.

We start to like divorcing, if we're married at all.

Počelo nam se sviđati razvoditi se, ukoliko smo uopće i bili vjenčani.

All this was very much under attack.

Sve je ovo bilo poprilično napadano.

And it is so difficult to engage people in politics

I tako je teško uključiti ljude u politiku

when they believe that what really matters

kad oni vjeruju da je ono što je zaista bitno

is where they personally stand.

njihovo vlastito mišljenje.

And you have the market revolution of the 1980s

Imate i tržišnu revoluciju 1980-ih

and the huge increase of inequality in societies.

i ogroman rast nejednakosti u društvima.

Remember, until the 1970s,

Zapamtite, sve do 1970-ih,

the spread of democracy has always been accompanied

širenje demokracije je uvijek bilo popraćeno

by the decline of inequality.

smanjenjem nejednakosti.

The more democratic our societies have been,

Što su demokratičnijima naša društva postajala,

the more equal they have been becoming.

postajala su sve jednakija.

Now we have the reverse tendency.

Sad imamo obrnuti trend.

The spread of democracy now is very much accompanied

Širenje demokracije je danas u velikoj mjeri popraćeno

by the increase in inequality.

povećanjem nejednakosti.

And I find this very much disturbing

I to je ono što nalazim vrlo uznemirujućim

when we're talking about what's going on right and wrong

kad govorimo o onome što je dobro, a što loše

with democracy these days.

u svezi s demokracijom danas.

And if you go to 1989 --

A ukoliko se vratite u 1989. --

something that basically you don't expect that anybody's going to criticize --

postoji nešto što praktički ne očekujete da će bilo tko kritizirati --

but many are going to tell you, "Listen, it was the end of the Cold War

mnogi će vam reći: "Slušajte, kraj Hladnog rata je ono

that tore the social contract between the elites and the people in Western Europe."

što je raskinulo društveni ugovor između elita i ljudi u Zapadnoj Europi."

When the Soviet Union was still there,

Dok je još postajao Sovjetski savez,

the rich and the powerful, they needed the people,

bogatima i moćnima narod je bio potreban,

because they feared them.

jer su ga se plašili.

Now the elites basically have been liberated.

Sada su elite praktički oslobođene.

They're very mobile. You cannot tax them.

Vrlo su pokretljive. Ne možete ih oporezivati.

And basically they don't fear the people.

I pratkično ne plaše se naroda.

So as a result of it, you have this very strange situation

I tako, kao rezultat toga, imate ovu vrlo čudnu situaciju

in which the elites basically got out of the control of the voters.

u kojoj su elite praktički izmakle kontroli glasača.

So this is not by accident

I nije slučajno

that the voters are not interested to vote anymore.

da glasači nisu više zainteresirani glasovati.

And when we talk about the Internet,

A kad govorimo o Internetu,

yes, it's true, the Internet connected all of us,

da, istina je, Intenet nas je sve povezao,

but we also know that the Internet created these echo chambers and political ghettos

ali također znamo da je Internet stvorio i ove komore odjeka i političke getoe

in which for all your life you can stay with the political community you belong to.

u kojima cijeli svoj život možete ostati u političkoj zajednici kojoj pripadate.

And it's becoming more and more difficult

I postaje sve teže i teže

to understand the people who are not like you.

razumjeti ljude koji nisu poput vas.

I know that many people here

Znam da su mnogi ljudi ovdje

have been splendidly speaking about the digital world and the possibility for cooperation,

izvrsno govorili o digitalnom svijetu i mogućnostima suradnje,

but [have you] seen what the digital world has done to American politics these days?

ali vidite li što je taj digitalni svijet danas učinio američkoj politici?

This is also partly a result of the Internet revolution.

Ovo je također dijelom rezultat internetske revolucije.

This is the other side of the things that we like.

Ovo je druga strana onoga što nam se sviđa.

And when you go to the brain sciences,

A kad uđemo u područje neuroznanosti,

what political consultants learned from the brain scientists

ono što su politički konzultanti naučili od neuroznanstvenika

is don't talk to me about ideas anymore,

da mi treba prestati govoriti o idejama,

don't talk to me about policy programs.

i o političkim programima.

What really matters is basically to manipulate the emotions of the people.

Ono što je zaista bitno je praktično manipulirati emocijama ljudi.

And you have this very strongly

I ovo je toliko snažno prisutno,

to the extent that, even if you see when we talk about revolutions these days,

do te mjere da čak i kad danas govorimo o revolucijama,

these revolutions are not named anymore around ideologies or ideas.

ove revolucije ne nazivamo prema ideologijama ili idejama.

Before, revolutions used to have ideological names.

Prije, revolucije su nosile ideološka imena.

They could be communist, they could be liberal,

Mogle su biti komunističke, mogle su biti liberalne,

they could be fascist or Islamic.

mogle su biti fašističke ili islamske.

Now the revolutions are called under the medium which is most used.

Danas, revolucije se nazivaju prema mediju koji se najviše koristi.

You have Facebook revolutions, Twitter revolutions.

Tako imamo Facebook revolucije, Twitter revolucije.

The content doesn't matter anymore, the problem is the media.

Sadržaj više nije bitan, problem su mediji.

I'm saying this because one of my major points

Govorim ovo jer je jedna od mojih glavnih poruka

is what went right is also what went wrong.

to da je ono što je bilo dobro u isto vrijeme bilo i loše.

And when we're now trying to see how we can change the situation,

I sad, kad pokušavamo vidjeti kako bismo mogli promijeniti situaciju,

when basically we're trying to see what can be done about democracy,

kad praktično pokušavamo vidjeti što učiniti u svezi s demokracijom,

we should keep this ambiguity in mind.

trebamo imati na umu ovu dvoznačnost.

Because probably some of the things that we love most

Jer, vjerojatno će nam neke stvari koje najviše volimo

are going to be also the things that can hurt us most.

u isto vrijeme biti i stvari koje nas najviše mogu povrijediti.

These days it's very popular to believe

Danas je vrlo popularno vjerovati

that this push for transparency,

da ovo potenciranje transparentnosti,

this kind of a combination between active citizens, new technologies

ova nekakva kombinacija između aktivnih građana, novih tehnologija

and much more transparency-friendly legislation

i još više transparentno-prijateljskog zakonodavstva

can restore trust in politics.

može povratiti povjerenje u politiku.

You believe that when you have these new technologies and people who are ready to use this,

Vjerujete da, kad imate ove nove tehnologije i ljude koji su ih spremni koristiti,

it can make it much more difficult for the governments to lie,

to može znatno otežati vladi laganje,

it's going to be more difficult for them to steal

bit će im mnogo teže krasti

and probably even going to be more difficult for them to kill.

i vjerojatno će im čak biti teže i ubiti.

This is probably true.

Ovo je vjerojatno točno.

But I do believe that we should be also very clear

Međutim, ja vjerujem da nam treba također biti jasno

that now when we put the transparency at the center of politics

da sad kad stavljamo transparentnost u središte politike

where the message is, "It's transparency, stupid."

poruka postaje: "To je transparentnost, glupane."

Transparency is not about restoring trust in institutions.

Transparentnost ne znači vraćanje povjerenja u institucije.

Transparency is politics' management of mistrust.

Transparentnost je upravljanje nepovjerenjem od strane politike.

We are assuming that our societies are going to be based on mistrust.

Mi pretpostavljamo da će naša društva biti temeljena na nepovjerenju.

And by the way, mistrust was always very important for democracy.

I usput rečeno, nepovjerenje je uvijek vrlo važno za demokraciju.

This is why you have checks and balances.

Zbog toga i imamo kontrole i rebalanse.

This is why basically you have all this creative mistrust

I praktično zbog toga imate svo ovo kreativno nepovjerenje

between the representatives and those whom they represent.

između predstavnika i onih koje predstavljaju.

But when politics is only management of mistrust,

Međutim, kad se politika svodi samo na upravljenje nepovjerenjem,

then -- I'm very glad that "1984" has been mentioned --

onda -- drago mi je što je spomenuta 1984. --

now we're going to have "1984" in reverse.

sad ćemo imati 1984. obrnutim redoslijedom.

It's not going to be the Big Brother watching you,

To neće biti Veliki brat koji vas gleda,

it's going to be we being the Big Brother

nego ćemo mi biti Veliki brat

watching the political class.

koji promatra političku klasu.

But is this the idea of a free society?

Ali, je li ovo ideja slobodnog društva?

For example, can you imagine

Primjerice, možete li zamisliti

that decent, civic, talented people are going to run for office

da će se pristojni, građanski, nadareni ljudi natjecati za javnu službu

if they really do believe

ukoliko zaista vjeruju

that politics is also about managing mistrust?

da je politika također i upravljanje nepovjerenjem?

Are you not afraid with all these technologies

Zar se ne plašite da će sve ove tehnologije

that are going to track down

koje će ući u trag

any statement the politicians are going to make on certain issues,

svakoj izjavi koju će političari izreći o određenim pitanjima,

are you not afraid that this is going to be a very strong signal to politicians

zar se ne plašite da će to biti vrlo snažan signal političarima

to repeat their positions, even the very wrong positions,

za ponavljanje svojih stajališta, čak i onih pogrešnih,

because consistency is going to be more important than common sense?

jer će dosljednost biti mnogo važnija od zdravog razuma?

And the Americans who are in the room,

A vi, ovdje nazočni Amerikanci,

are you not afraid that your presidents are going to govern

zar se ne plašite da će vaši predsjednici vladati

on the basis of what they said in the primary elections?

na osnovi onoga što su izjavili tijekom izborne kampanje?

I find this extremely important,

Ovo nalazim iznimno važnim,

because democracy is about people changing their views

jer demokracija podrazumijeva mijenjanje stajališta

based on rational arguments and discussions.

na osnovi racionalnih argumenata i rasprave.

And we can lose this with the very noble idea

A ovo možemo spriječiti s vrlo plemenitom idejom

to keep people accountable

držanja ljudi odgovornima

for showing the people that we're not going to tolerate

za slanje poruke da nećemo tolerirati

politicians the opportunism in politics.

političarima oportunizam u politici.

So for me this is extremely important.

I tako je to, po meni, iznimno važno.

And I do believe that when we're discussing politics these days,

I ja zaista vjerujem da kad raspravljamo o politici danas,

probably it makes sense

vjerojatno ima smisla

to look also at this type of a story.

sagledati i ovu stranu priče.

But also don't forget, any unveiling is also veiling.

Ali, također, nemojte zaboraviti, svako otkrivanje je u isto vrijeme i prikrivanje.

[Regardless of] how transparent our governments want to be,

Bez obzira koliko transparentne naše vlade žele biti,

they're going to be selectively transparent.

bit će selektivno transparentne.

In a small country that could be my country,

U jednoj maloj zemlji koja bi mogla biti moja zemlja,

but could be also your country,

ali također i vaša zemlja,

they took a decision -- it is a real case story --

oni su donijeli odluku -- ovo je istinita priča --

that all of the governmental decisions,

da će sve odluke vlade,

discussions of the council of ministers,

rasprave vijeća ministara,

were going to be published on the Internet

biti objavljene na Internetu

24 hours after the council discussions took place.

24 sata nakon što su održane rasprave vijeća.

And the public was extremely all for it.

A javnost je u potpunosti bila za to.

So I had the opportunity to talk to the prime minister,

I tako, imao sam priliku razgovarati s premijerom,

why he made this decision.

zbog čega je donio tu odluku.

He said, "Listen, this is the best way

Rekao je: "Slušaj, to je najbolji način

to keep the mouths of my ministers closed.

da zatvorim usta svojih ministara.

Because it's going to be very difficult for them to dissent

Jer, bit će im vrlo teško usprotiviti se

knowing that 24 hours after

znajući da će 24 sata poslije

this is going to be on the public space,

sve to biti javno objavljeno,

and this is in a certain way going to be a political crisis."

i to bi na određeni način izazvalo političku krizu."

So when we talk about transparency,

I tako, kad govorimo o transparentnosti,

when we talk about openness,

kad govorimo o otvorenosti,

I really do believe that what we should keep in mind

zaista vjerujem da trebamo imati na umu

is that what went right is what went wrong.

da je ono što je bilo dobro istovremeno bilo i loše.

And this is Goethe, who is neither Bulgarian nor a political scientist,

Goethe, koji nije bio ni Bugarin ni politolog

some centuries ago he said,

rekao je prije nekoliko stoljeća:

"There is a big shadow where there is much light."

"Postoji velika sjena tamo gdje ima previše svjetla."

Thank you very much.

Puno vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)