Paul Tudor Jones II: Why we need to rethink capitalism

Prevodilac: Ivana Krivokuća Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović

This is a story about capitalism.

Ovo je priča o kapitalizmu.

It's a system I love

To je sistem koji volim

because of the successes and opportunities it's afforded me and millions of others.

zbog uspeha i prilika koji je pružio meni i milionima drugih.

I started in my 20s trading commodities, cotton in particular, in the pits,

Počeo sam u svojim 20-im da trgujem robom, pamukom naročito, na dnu,

a ako je ikada postojalo slobodno tržište koje je slobodno za sve, to je bilo to,

and if there was ever a free market free-for-all, this was it,

where men wearing ties but acting like gladiators

gde su se muškarci koji su nosili kravate, ali se ponašali kao gladijatori

fought literally and physically for a profit.

borili bukvalno i fizički za zaradu.

Fortunately, I was good enough that by the time I was 30,

Srećom, išlo mi je dovoljno dobro da sam do svoje 30. godine

I was able to move into the upstairs world of money management,

mogao da se popnem u svet upravljanja novcem

gde sam proveo naredne tri decenije kao globalni makro trgovac.

where I spent the next three decades as a global macro trader.

And over that time, I've seen a lot of crazy things in the markets,

Za to vreme sam video mnogo ludih stvari na tržištima

and I've traded a lot of crazy manias.

i trgovao sam kroz mnogo ludih manija.

And unfortunately,

Nažalost,

I'm sad to report that right now we might be in the grips

sa žaljenjem izveštavam da smo možda u kandžama

of one of the most disastrous, certainly of my career,

jedne od najrazornijih zasigurno u mojoj karijeri,

and one consistent takeaway is manias never end well.

a dosledno dokazana pouka je da se manije nikada ne završe dobro.

Now, over the past 50 years,

Tokom proteklih 50 godina,

we as a society have come to view our companies and corporations

kao društvo, došli smo do sagledavanja naših kompanija i korporacija

in a very narrow, almost monomaniacal fashion

na vrlo ograničen, gotovo monomanijakalni način

with regard to how we value them,

u pogledu načina na koji ih vrednujemo,

and we have put so much emphasis on profits,

a toliko smo stavili naglaska na profit,

on short-term quarterly earnings and share prices,

na kratkoročne kvartalne zarade i cene akcija,

at the exclusion of all else.

da smo isključili sve ostalo.

Kao da smo istrgli čovečnost iz naših kompanija.

It's like we've ripped the humanity out of our companies.

Now, we don't do that -- conveniently reduce something

Mi to ne radimo - nećemo nešto prikladno svesti

to a set of numbers that you can play with like Lego toys --

na skup brojeva sa kojima se možemo igrati poput Lego kockica -

we don't do that in our individual life.

to ne radimo u našem ličnom životu.

We don't treat somebody or value them

Ne tretiramo osobu niti je cenimo

based on their monthly income or their credit score,

na osnovu njenog mesečnog prihoda ili kreditnih poena,

but we have this double standard

ali imamo dvostruki standard

kada je u pitanju način na koji vrednujemo naše firme,

when it comes to the way that we value our businesses,

and you know what?

a znate šta?

To preti samim temeljima našeg društva.

It's threatening the very underpinnings of our society.

And here's how you'll see.

Evo kako ćete to uvideti.

This chart is corporate profit margins going back 40 years

Na ovom grafikonu su prikazane korporativne profitne marže

40 godina unazad kao procenat prihoda

as a percentage of revenues,

i možete videti da se nalazimo na 40-godišnjem vrhuncu od 12,5 procenata.

and you can see that we're at a 40-year high of 12.5 percent.

Now, hooray if you're a shareholder,

Ura ako ste vlasnik akcija,

but if you're the other side of that, and you're the average American worker,

ali ako se nalazite na drugoj strani, ako ste prosečan američki radnik,

then you can see it's not such a good thing.

onda možete videti da to nije tako dobra stvar.

["U.S. Share of Income Going to Labor vs. CEO-to-Worker Compensation Ratio"]

[„Udeo prihoda koji ide radnicima u SAD u odnosu na naknade rukovodiocima“]

Now, higher profit margins do not increase societal wealth.

Veće profitne marže ne povećavaju društveno bogatstvo.

What they actually do is they exacerbate income inequality,

One zapravo pogoršavaju nejednakost prihoda,

and that's not a good thing.

a to nije dobra stvar.

But intuitively, that makes sense, right?

Ipak, intuitivno, to ima smisla, zar ne?

Because if the top 10 percent of American families

Ako 10 procenata američkih porodica na vrhu

own 90 percent of the stocks,

poseduje 90 posto akcija,

dok one uzimaju veći deo korporativnih profita,

as they take a greater share of corporate profits,

then there's less wealth left for the rest of society.

onda manje bogatstva ostaje za ostatak društva.

Again, income inequality is not a good thing.

Opet, nejednakost prihoda nije dobra stvar.

This next chart, made by The Equality Trust,

Sledeći grafikon koji je napravio Fond ravnopravnosti

shows 21 countries from Austria to Japan to New Zealand.

pokazuje 21 zemlju, od Austrije preko Japana do Novog Zelanda.

On the horizontal axis is income inequality.

Na horizontalnoj osi je nejednakost u visini dohotka.

The further to the right you go, the greater the income inequality.

Što dalje idete desno, veća je nejednakost u visini dohotka.

On the vertical axis are nine social and health metrics.

Na vertikalnoj osi je dato devet socijalnih i zdravstvenih merila.

The more you go up that, the worse the problems are,

Što više idete gore, gori su problemi, a ta merila obuhvataju

and those metrics include life expectancy, teenage pregnancy, literacy,

očekivani životni vek, trudnoću u tinejdžerskom dobu, pismenost,

social mobility, just to name a few.

društvenu pokretljivost, da navedemo samo neke.

Now, those of you in the audience who are Americans may wonder,

Oni među vama u publici koji su Amerikanci se možda pitaju

well, where does the United States rank?

na kom rangu se nalaze Sjedinjene Države.

Where does it lie on that chart?

Gde leže na ovom grafikonu?

And guess what?

Pogodite šta?

Bukvalno smo van grafikona.

We're literally off the chart.

Yes, that's us,

Da, to smo mi,

with the greatest income inequality

sa najvećom nejednakošću u visini dohotka

and the greatest social problems, according to those metrics.

i najvećim društvenim problemima prema tim merilima.

Now, here's a macro forecast that's easy to make,

Evo makro prognoze koju je lako sačiniti,

and that's, that gap between the wealthiest and the poorest,

a to je da će taj jaz između najbogatijih i najsiromašnijih

it will get closed.

biti zatvoren.

History always does it.

Istorija to uvek čini.

To se tipično dogodi na jedan od tri načina:

It typically happens in one of three ways:

either through revolution, higher taxes, or wars.

kroz revoluciju, veće poreze ili ratove.

None of those are on my bucket list.

Ništa od toga nije na mojoj listi želja.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Postoji još jedan način da se to uradi,

Now, there's another way to do it,

a to je povećanjem pravednosti u korporativnom ponašanju,

and that's by increasing justness in corporate behavior,

but the way that we're operating right now,

ali imajući u vidu način na koji sada poslujemo,

that would require a tremendous change in behavior,

to bi zahtevalo ogromne promene u ponašanju,

and like an addict trying to kick a habit,

i kao zavisnik koji pokušava da se otarasi navike,

the first step is to acknowledge that you have a problem.

prvi korak je priznati da imate problem.

And let me just say, this profits mania that we're on

I dozvolite mi da kažem, ova profitna manija u kojoj se nalazimo

is so deeply entrenched

je toliko duboko ukorenjena

that we don't even realize how we're harming society.

da čak ni ne shvatamo kako škodimo društvu.

Here's a small but startling example of exactly how we're doing that:

Evo malog, ali iznenađujućeg primera o tome kako tačno to radimo.

this chart shows corporate giving

Ovaj grafikon pokazuje korporativna davanja

kao procenat profita, a ne prihoda, tokom poslednjih 30 godina.

as a percentage of profits, not revenues, over the last 30 years.

Juxtapose that to the earlier chart of corporate profit margins,

Uporedite to sa prethodnim grafikonom korporativnih profitnih marži

and I ask you, does that feel right?

i pitam vas, da li se to čini ispravno?

In all fairness, when I started writing this, I thought,

Iskreno, kada sam počeo da pišem ovo, pomislio sam:

"Oh wow, what does my company, what does Tudor do?"

„O, vau, šta moja kompanija čini, šta Tjudor čini?“

i shvatio sam da dajemo jedan procenat korporativnih profita

And I realized we give one percent of corporate profits

to charity every year.

u dobrotvorne svrhe svake godine.

And I'm supposed to be a philanthropist.

A ja bi trebalo da budem filantrop.

When I realized that, I literally wanted to throw up.

Kada sam to shvatio, bukvalno sam hteo da povratim.

But the point is, this mania is so deeply entrenched

Poenta je da je ova manija toliko duboko ukorenjena

that well-intentioned people like myself don't even realize that we're part of it.

da dobronamerni ljudi poput mene čak ni ne shvataju da su deo toga.

Now, we're not going to change corporate behavior

E, sad, nećemo izmeniti korporativno ponašanje

by simply increasing corporate philanthropy or charitable contributions.

jednostavnim povećanjem filantropije u korporacijama ili dobrotvornih priloga.

And oh, by the way, we've since quadrupled that,

Uzgred, od tada smo to učetvorostručili,

but -- (Applause) -- Please.

ali - (Aplauz) - molim vas.

But we can do it by driving more just behavior.

Možemo to učiniti podsticanjem pravednog ponašanja.

And one way to do it is actually trusting

Jedan način za to je verovati

the system that got us here in the first place,

sistemu koji nas je ovde prvobitno doveo,

a to je sistem slobodnog tržišta.

and that's the free market system.

About a year ago, some friends of mine and I

Pre oko godinu dana, neki moji prijatelji i ja

started a not-for-profit called Just Capital.

započeli smo neprofitnu organizaciju pod imenom Pravedni kapital.

Njena misija je vrlo jednostavna:

Its mission is very simple:

to help companies and corporations

da pomogne kompanijama i korporacijama da nauče

learn how to operate in a more just fashion by using the public's input

kako da posluju na pravedniji način koristeći podatke dobijene od javnosti

to define exactly what the criteria are for just corporate behavior.

da bi definisali koji su tačno kriterijumi za pravedno korporativno ponašanje.

Now, right now, there's no widely accepted standard

U ovom trenutku ne postoji široko prihvaćeni standard

that a company or corporation can follow, and that's where Just Capital comes in,

koji kompanija ili korporacija može slediti,

a upravo tu nastupa Pravedni kapital,

because beginning this year and every year we'll be conducting a nationwide survey

jer počevši od ove godine i svake naredne ćemo sprovoditi nacionalno istraživanje

of a representative sample of 20,000 Americans

na reprezentativnom uzorku od 20 000 Amerikanaca

to find out exactly what they think

da bismo otkrili tačno šta misle

da su kriterijumi pravednosti u korporativnom ponašanju.

are the criteria for justness in corporate behavior.

Now, this is a model that's going to start in the United States

To je model koji će otpočeti u Sjedinjenim Državama,

but can be expanded anywhere around the globe,

ali se može proširiti bilo gde na planeti,

and maybe we'll find out

i možda ćemo otkriti

that the most important thing for the public

da je najvažnija stvar za javnost

is that we create living wage jobs, or make healthy products,

da stvorimo poslove sa minimalnom satnicom ili da napravimo zdrave proizvode,

or help, not harm, the environment.

ili da pomognemo životnoj sredini umesto da joj nanosimo štetu.

At Just Capital, we don't know, and it's not for us to decide.

U Pravednom kapitalu, mi to ne znamo, i nije na nama da odlučimo.

We're but messengers,

Mi samo prenosimo poruku,

but we have 100 percent confidence and faith in the American public

ali imamo 100 posto poverenja i vere u američku javnost

to get it right.

da će se to razumeti kako treba.

So we'll release the findings this September for the first time,

Objavićemo zaključke prvi put ovog septembra,

and then next year, we'll poll again,

a zatim ćemo sledeće godine ponoviti anketu

and we'll take the additive step this time

i tada ćemo načiniti dodatne korake

of ranking the 1,000 largest U.S. companies

rangirajući 1 000 najvećih kompanija u SAD

from number one to number 1,000 and everything in between.

od broja jedan do broja 1 000 i sve između.

We're calling it the Just Index,

To nazivamo Pravedni indeks,

and remember, we're an independent not-for-profit with no bias,

i upamtite, mi smo nezavisna neprofitna organizacija bez predrasuda

and we will be giving the American public a voice.

i davaćemo glas američkoj javnosti.

And maybe over time, we'll find out that as people come to know

Možda ćemo vremenom otkriti da, kako ljudi budu dolazili do saznanja

which companies are the most just,

koje kompanije su najpravednije,

ljudski i ekonomski resursi će biti usmereni ka njima,

human and economic resources will be driven towards them,

and they'll become the most prosperous

postaće najuspešnije

and help our country be the most prosperous.

i pomoći će našoj zemlji da bude najuspešnija.

Kapitalizam je odgovoran za svaku veću inovaciju

Now, capitalism has been responsible for every major innovation

that's made this world a more inspiring and wonderful place to live in.

koja je učinila ovaj svet inspirativnijim i divnijim mestom za život.

Capitalism has to be based on justice.

Kapitalizam mora biti zasnovan na pravdi.

It has to be, and now more than ever,

Mora da bude, a sada više nego ikada,

with economic divisions growing wider every day.

sa ekonomskim podelama koje svakodnevno postaju sve veće.

It's estimated that 47 percent of American workers

Procenjuje se da se 47 posto američkih radnika

can be displaced in the next 20 years.

može ukloniti u narednih 20 godina.

I'm not against progress.

Nisam protiv napretka.

I want the driverless car and the jet pack just like everyone else.

Želim auto bez vozača i raketni pojas baš kao i svi ostali,

But I'm pleading for recognition that with increased wealth and profits

ali zalažem se za prepoznavanje da uz povećano bogatstvo i profite

has to come greater corporate social responsibility.

mora da ide veća korporativna društvena odgovornost.

"If justice is removed," said Adam Smith, the father of capitalism,

„Ako se pravda ukloni“, rekao je Adam Smit, otac kapitalizma,

"the great, the immense fabric of human society must in a moment

„veliko, neizmerno tkivo ljudskog društva se mora u trenutku

crumble into atoms."

raspasti na atome.“

Now, when I was young, and there was a problem,

Kada sam bio mlad i postojao je neki problem,

my mama used to always sigh and shake her head and say,

moja mama bi uvek uzdahnula, odmahnula glavom i rekla:

"Have mercy, have mercy."

„Imaj milosti, imaj milosti.“

Now's not the time for us, for the rest of us to show them mercy.

Sada nije vreme da im mi, ostatak nas, pokažemo milost.

The time is now for us to show them fairness,

Vreme je da im pokažemo ispravnost,

a mi to možemo, vi i ja,

and we can do that, you and I,

by starting where we work, in the businesses that we operate in.

počevši od mesta na kome radimo, od firmi u kojima poslujemo,

a kada stavimo pravednost rame uz rame sa profitom,

And when we put justness on par with profits,

we'll get the most wonderful thing in all the world.

dobićemo najdivniju stvar na svetu -

We'll take back our humanity.

povratićemo našu čovečnost.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Aplauz)

(Applause)