Paul Tudor Jones II: Why we need to rethink capitalism

譯者: Harry Chen 審譯者: Regina Chu

This is a story about capitalism.

這是關於資本主義的過往，

It's a system I love

那是我鍾愛的制度，

because of the successes and opportunities it's afforded me and millions of others.

因為它帶給我 和成千上萬人成功與機運。

I started in my 20s trading commodities, cotton in particular, in the pits,

我從二十出頭開始在交易廳內 做商品人工喊價交易，特別是棉花。

and if there was ever a free market free-for-all, this was it,

如果真的有對任何人 都不設限的自由市場，就是這個了。

where men wearing ties but acting like gladiators

那個地方男人都打著領帶， 但是舉止就像古羅馬的競技者一般，

fought literally and physically for a profit.

確確實實為了利潤而戰。

Fortunately, I was good enough that by the time I was 30,

很幸運地等我到了三十歲，

I was able to move into the upstairs world of money management,

績效好到足以進入更高階的 資金管理領域，

where I spent the next three decades as a global macro trader.

我又花了接下來的三十年 當全球宏觀交易員，

And over that time, I've seen a lot of crazy things in the markets,

在那期間我見識過 許多市場上的瘋狂事情，

and I've traded a lot of crazy manias.

也交易過許多瘋狂的熱潮商品。

And unfortunately,

很不幸的，

I'm sad to report that right now we might be in the grips

我很遺憾的說 我們現在可能深陷於

of one of the most disastrous, certainly of my career,

很糟糕的困境， 在我的職涯裡的確如此，

and one consistent takeaway is manias never end well.

一個始終不變的重點就是 熱潮從來不會有好下場。

Now, over the past 50 years,

在過去五十年裡，

we as a society have come to view our companies and corporations

我們這個社會已經變成用 非常狹隘、幾乎是一頭熱的方式

in a very narrow, almost monomaniacal fashion

來檢視我們的公司和企業，

with regard to how we value them,

尤其在於我們如何價量時。

and we have put so much emphasis on profits,

而且我們太注重於利潤、 短期季盈餘和股價，

on short-term quarterly earnings and share prices,

at the exclusion of all else.

把其他一切排除在外了，

It's like we've ripped the humanity out of our companies.

好像我們已經把人性從 公司身上拔除掉了；

Now, we don't do that -- conveniently reduce something

我們不會——

輕易地把某些東西縮減成你可以 像堆樂高一樣玩弄的數字，

to a set of numbers that you can play with like Lego toys --

we don't do that in our individual life.

我們不會在各自的生命裡這樣做！

We don't treat somebody or value them

我們不會依據月所得或是信用分數

based on their monthly income or their credit score,

來對待人或是價量他們，

but we have this double standard

但是每當我們價量企業時 我們會有這個雙重標準，

when it comes to the way that we value our businesses,

and you know what?

你知道嗎？

It's threatening the very underpinnings of our society.

這正在危害我們社會的根基呀！

And here's how you'll see.

這裡你將會看到是如何危害，

This chart is corporate profit margins going back 40 years

這張圖表是過去四十年 公司的淨利率

對上收入的百分點，

as a percentage of revenues,

and you can see that we're at a 40-year high of 12.5 percent.

你可以看到我們現在 就在 40 年的高點—12.5 ％。

Now, hooray if you're a shareholder,

今天如果你是股東就棒透了，

but if you're the other side of that, and you're the average American worker,

不過如果你不是股東， 而且是普通的美國職員，

then you can see it's not such a good thing.

這會兒你就可以看出那不是 一件如此美好的事情了；

["U.S. Share of Income Going to Labor vs. CEO-to-Worker Compensation Ratio"]

［美國實際工資佔產出的比重 —執行長與員工薪酬比］

如今更高的淨利率並沒有 增加社會的財富，

Now, higher profit margins do not increase societal wealth.

What they actually do is they exacerbate income inequality,

它們實際上加劇了所得不平均，

and that's not a good thing.

而那不是一件好事。

But intuitively, that makes sense, right?

不過直覺上很有道理對吧，

Because if the top 10 percent of American families

因為假使財富最高的 10% 美國家庭握有 90% 的股票，

own 90 percent of the stocks,

當他們拿走公司利潤的極大部分時，

as they take a greater share of corporate profits,

then there's less wealth left for the rest of society.

就只剩下較少的財富 留給社會上的其他人，

Again, income inequality is not a good thing.

再說一次，所得不平均不是件好事，

This next chart, made by The Equality Trust,

接下來這張圖表是由 「權益信託」所製作的，

shows 21 countries from Austria to Japan to New Zealand.

顯現了包括澳洲、日本、 紐西蘭在內的 21 個國家；

On the horizontal axis is income inequality.

水平軸是所得不均，

The further to the right you go, the greater the income inequality.

越往右邊去收入不均越嚴重；

On the vertical axis are nine social and health metrics.

在垂直軸是九種社會和 健康問題的度量指標，

The more you go up that, the worse the problems are,

你越往上走問題就越惡劣，

and those metrics include life expectancy, teenage pregnancy, literacy,

這些度量指標隨便拿幾個來講，

包括了平均壽命、未成年懷孕、 識字率、社會流動。

social mobility, just to name a few.

Now, those of you in the audience who are Americans may wonder,

現在在座是美國人的你 也許在猜美國排在哪裡呢？

well, where does the United States rank?

Where does it lie on that chart?

它座落在這張圖表的哪個地方呢?

And guess what?

你猜怎麼著，

We're literally off the chart.

我們完全跑出這張圖表外面，

Yes, that's us,

沒錯！那就是我們，

with the greatest income inequality

根據這些度量指標來說，

and the greatest social problems, according to those metrics.

有著最嚴重的所得不均和社會問題！

Now, here's a macro forecast that's easy to make,

現在這裡有個宏觀預測， 那很容易做出來，

and that's, that gap between the wealthiest and the poorest,

就是最富有和最貧窮者 之間的落差將會拉近，

it will get closed.

History always does it.

歷史經常做到，

It typically happens in one of three ways:

通常是用三種方式之一出現：

either through revolution, higher taxes, or wars.

透過革命、苛稅、或是戰爭，

None of those are on my bucket list.

它們沒有任何一個是在我的 遺願清單上頭啦！

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Now, there's another way to do it,

現在有另一個方法能做到，

and that's by increasing justness in corporate behavior,

那就是在企業行為中增加公義性！

but the way that we're operating right now,

但是我們現在運作的方式，

that would require a tremendous change in behavior,

需要在企業行為上 做出非常巨大的轉變，

and like an addict trying to kick a habit,

就像是個入癮者力圖改掉習慣，

the first step is to acknowledge that you have a problem.

第一步就是清楚知道你有了問題。

And let me just say, this profits mania that we're on

就讓我這麼說吧，我們正經歷的 利潤熱潮是如此根深蒂固，

is so deeply entrenched

that we don't even realize how we're harming society.

我們甚至不曉得我們如何 傷害這個社會。

Here's a small but startling example of exactly how we're doing that:

我們到底是如何造成傷害， 這裡有個不大但是驚人的例子：

this chart shows corporate giving

這張圖表顯示了

過去三十年企業捐款佔利潤的百分比， 不是收益的百分比喔，

as a percentage of profits, not revenues, over the last 30 years.

Juxtapose that to the earlier chart of corporate profit margins,

把它與早先的企業 淨利率的圖表擺在一塊兒，

and I ask you, does that feel right?

我要問你，這是對的嗎？

In all fairness, when I started writing this, I thought,

持平來講， 當我開始寫這些東西的時候，

我在想「哇！我的公司 「都德期貨基金」做了什麼呢？

"Oh wow, what does my company, what does Tudor do?"

And I realized we give one percent of corporate profits

我發現了我們每年給慈善機構 1% 的公司利潤，

to charity every year.

And I'm supposed to be a philanthropist.

而我應該是個慈善家呢！」

When I realized that, I literally wanted to throw up.

在我知道後我真的很想吐。

But the point is, this mania is so deeply entrenched

但是這股熱潮是如此根深蒂固，

that well-intentioned people like myself don't even realize that we're part of it.

立意良善者—好比我， 甚至不知道我們也身在其中，

Now, we're not going to change corporate behavior

現在我們不打算僅是透過

by simply increasing corporate philanthropy or charitable contributions.

增加慈善金或是慈善捐款 來改變企業行為，

And oh, by the way, we've since quadrupled that,

喔！順帶一提我們從那之後 已經增加了四倍的捐款，

but -- (Applause) -- Please.

不過—（掌聲）—請容我說完！

But we can do it by driving more just behavior.

不過我們可以透過推動更多 公義的作為來改變它。

And one way to do it is actually trusting

做到這件事的一個方法是信任 這個原先造成我們變成如此的體制，

the system that got us here in the first place,

and that's the free market system.

那就是自由市場體制。

About a year ago, some friends of mine and I

大約在一年前我的一些朋友和我 成立了非營利的「公義資本」，

started a not-for-profit called Just Capital.

Its mission is very simple:

它的任務非常簡單—

to help companies and corporations

幫助公司和企業習得 以更公義的方式營運，

learn how to operate in a more just fashion by using the public's input

透過使用大眾投入的意見

to define exactly what the criteria are for just corporate behavior.

來明確界定何為 公義企業行為的準則；

Now, right now, there's no widely accepted standard

現在並沒有被廣泛認可的準則 讓公司或企業遵從，

that a company or corporation can follow, and that's where Just Capital comes in,

那就是「公義資本」的切入點，

because beginning this year and every year we'll be conducting a nationwide survey

因為從今年開始， 每一年我們將會進行全國調查，

of a representative sample of 20,000 Americans

以兩萬名美國人為代表樣本，

to find out exactly what they think

來找出他們認為的公義和企業行為 標準到底是什麼，

are the criteria for justness in corporate behavior.

Now, this is a model that's going to start in the United States

這是一個範例，從美國開始，

but can be expanded anywhere around the globe,

但是可以擴展到全球的任何地方，

and maybe we'll find out

也許我們將會發現 對公眾來說最重要的東西，

that the most important thing for the public

is that we create living wage jobs, or make healthy products,

是創造能餬口的工作、 或是製造更健康的產品、

or help, not harm, the environment.

或是救助而非破壞環境。

At Just Capital, we don't know, and it's not for us to decide.

在「公義資本」我們並不清楚 而且這不是我們來決定的，

We're but messengers,

我們不過是使者罷了，

but we have 100 percent confidence and faith in the American public

但是我們對美國大眾 能把它變成對的有著百分百的信心，

to get it right.

So we'll release the findings this September for the first time,

所以今年九月我們 將會發表第一次的結果，

and then next year, we'll poll again,

然後明年我們將會再次做民調，

and we'll take the additive step this time

而且這次我們將會進一步 為美國一千大公司做排名，

of ranking the 1,000 largest U.S. companies

from number one to number 1,000 and everything in between.

從第一名到第一千名全都排出來。

We're calling it the Just Index,

我們將會稱之為「公義指標」，

and remember, we're an independent not-for-profit with no bias,

而且請記住我們是獨立的、 非營利的、沒有偏頗的，

and we will be giving the American public a voice.

而且我們將會收到美國公眾的意見，

And maybe over time, we'll find out that as people come to know

也許長此以往我們將會發現 一旦公眾知道了那間公司最公義，

which companies are the most just,

human and economic resources will be driven towards them,

人力和經濟資源就會流向它們，

and they'll become the most prosperous

它們將會變成最成功的公司，

and help our country be the most prosperous.

以及幫助我們的國家 成為最興盛的國家。

Now, capitalism has been responsible for every major innovation

資本主義一直以來 擔負了每一個重大的創新，

that's made this world a more inspiring and wonderful place to live in.

使世界變成更啟發人 和完善的居住地，

Capitalism has to be based on justice.

資本主義得要基於公義， 一定得要，

It has to be, and now more than ever,

尤其是經濟分歧越來越大， 這比以往更為需要。

with economic divisions growing wider every day.

It's estimated that 47 percent of American workers

據估計 47 ％ 的美國職工在未來 二十年內可以被取代掉！

can be displaced in the next 20 years.

I'm not against progress.

我不是反對進步，

I want the driverless car and the jet pack just like everyone else.

我跟大家一樣想要自動駕駛汽車 和個人的飛行裝備，

But I'm pleading for recognition that with increased wealth and profits

但是我正在求取認可，

隨著增加的財富和獲利， 企業必須帶來更大的社會責任，

has to come greater corporate social responsibility.

"If justice is removed," said Adam Smith, the father of capitalism,

「國富論」的作者亞當．史密斯 曾說過：「當公義被排除了，

"the great, the immense fabric of human society must in a moment

人類社會龐大、優質的構造

肯定一瞬間就分崩離析了」

crumble into atoms."

Now, when I was young, and there was a problem,

當我小時候家裡發生困難時，

my mama used to always sigh and shake her head and say,

我媽媽總是習慣嘆口氣、搖著頭說：

"Have mercy, have mercy."

「主啊！求祢憐憫，主啊！」

Now's not the time for us, for the rest of us to show them mercy.

現在不是我們對其他人 展現憐憫的時刻，

The time is now for us to show them fairness,

現在是我們展現給他們 公平的時刻，

and we can do that, you and I,

我們可以做到的，

你和我從工作中、 從經營的生意中開始，

by starting where we work, in the businesses that we operate in.

And when we put justness on par with profits,

當我們把公義和利益 擺放在相同的位置，

we'll get the most wonderful thing in all the world.

我們將會得到世界上 最美妙的事物，

We'll take back our humanity.

我們會找回人性。

Thank you.

謝謝你們！

(Applause)

（掌聲）