Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations

Prevodilac: Darko Ilic Lektor: Jelena Nedjic

Cities are the crucible of civilization.

Gradovi su veliki izazov za civilizaciju.

They have been expanding,

Oni se uvećavaju,

urbanization has been expanding,

stopa urbanizacije raste

at an exponential rate in the last 200 years

eksponencijalnom stopom u poslednjih 200 godina

so that by the second part of this century,

tako da će u drugoj polovini ovog veka

the planet will be completely dominated

gradovi u potpunosti dominirati

by cities.

planetom.

Cities are the origins of global warming,

Gradovi su izvor globalnog zagrevanja,

impact on the environment,

utiču na okruženje,

health, pollution, disease,

zdravlje, zagađenje, bolesti,

finance,

finansije,

economies, energy --

ekonomiju, energiju.

they're all problems

Svi ovi problemi

that are confronted by having cities.

su posledica postojanja gradova.

That's where all these problems come from.

To je izvor svih ovih problema.

And the tsunami of problems that we feel we're facing

A vrhunac problema sa kojima se suočavamo,

in terms of sustainability questions

po pitanju održivosti,

are actually a reflection

ogleda se u

of the exponential increase

eksponencijalnom povećanju

in urbanization across the planet.

stope urbanizacije širom planete.

Here's some numbers.

Pogledajmo neke brojeve:

Two hundred years ago, the United States

pre dve stotine godina, stopa urbanizacije

was less than a few percent urbanized.

u SAD je iznosila manje od nekoliko procenata.

It's now more than 82 percent.

Sada je stopa urbanizacije veća od 82%.

The planet has crossed the halfway mark a few years ago.

Globalno posmatrano, pre nekoliko godina ta stopa je prešla 50%.

China's building 300 new cities

U Kini će u narednih 20 godina

in the next 20 years.

biti izgrađeno 300 novih gradova.

Now listen to this:

Obratite pažnju sada na ovo:

Every week for the foreseeable future,

u bliskoj budućnosti

until 2050,

do 2050. godine,

every week more than a million people

populacija u našim gradovima će se svake nedelje

are being added to our cities.

povećavati za milion stanovnika.

This is going to affect everything.

To će uticati na sve.

Everybody in this room, if you stay alive,

Svako od vas, u ovoj sobi, ako bude živ,

is going to be affected

biće pogođen ovim

by what's happening in cities

neverovatnim fenomenom,

in this extraordinary phenomenon.

koji se odvija u gradovima.

However, cities,

Međutim i pored tih

despite having this negative aspect to them,

negativnih aspekata gradova,

are also the solution.

gradovi su takođe i rešenje.

Because cities are the vacuum cleaners and the magnets

Gradovi su magneti i usisivači

that have sucked up creative people,

koji privlače kreativne ljude,

creating ideas, innovation,

kreatore ideja, inovacija

wealth and so on.

bogatstva i tako dalje.

So we have this kind of dual nature.

Dakle imamo dve strane medalje.

And so there's an urgent need

Neophodno je ubrzo doći do

for a scientific theory of cities.

naučne teorije o gradovima.

Now these are my comrades in arms.

Ovo su moja braća po oružju.

This work has been done with an extraordinary group of people,

Izvanredna grupa ljudi je odradila ovaj posao,

and they've done all the work,

uradili su sav posao,

and I'm the great bullshitter

a ja sam veliki seronja

that tries to bring it all together.

koji pokušava da sve to objedini.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So here's the problem: This is what we all want.

Dakle, problem je u sledećem: Ovo je ono što svi želimo.

The 10 billion people on the planet in 2050

Na planeti će 2050. biti 10 milijardi ljudi koji

want to live in places like this,

žele da žive u ovakvim mestima,

having things like this,

da imaju ove stvari,

doing things like this,

da rade ovakve stvari,

with economies that are growing like this,

sa ekonomijom koja ovako raste,

not realizing that entropy

ne shvatajući da ta entropija

produces things like this,

proizvodi i ovakve stvari,

this, this

ovo, ovo

and this.

i ovo.

And the question is:

Pitanje je:

Is that what Edinburgh and London and New York

Da li će Edinburg, London i Njujork

are going to look like in 2050,

izgledati ovako 2050. godine

or is it going to be this?

ili će biti ovakvi?

That's the question.

To je pitanje.

I must say, many of the indicators

Moram priznati da mnogi pokazatelji

look like this is what it's going to look like,

upućuju na to da će oni izgledati ovako,

but let's talk about it.

ali popričajmo o tome.

So my provocative statement

Dakle, moje provokativno shvatanje

is that we desperately need a serious scientific theory of cities.

ukazuje da nam je preko potrebna ozbiljna naučna teorija o gradovima.

And scientific theory means quantifiable --

Naučna teorija podrazumeva kvantitet -

relying on underlying generic principles

oslanjanje na opšteprihvaćene principe

that can be made into a predictive framework.

koji se mogu uspostaviti u predvidivom okviru.

That's the quest.

To je potraga.

Is that conceivable?

Da li je dostižno?

Are there universal laws?

Da li postoje univerzalni zakoni?

So here's two questions

Javljaju se dva pitanja

that I have in my head when I think about this problem.

kada razmišljam o ovom problemu.

The first is:

Prvo je:

Are cities part of biology?

da li su gradovi deo biologije?

Is London a great big whale?

Da li je London veliki kit?

Is Edinburgh a horse?

Da li je Edinburg konj?

Is Microsoft a great big anthill?

Da li je Majkrosoft veliki mravinjak?

What do we learn from that?

Šta možemo da naučimo iz toga?

We use them metaphorically --

Koristimo ih kao metaforu -

the DNA of a company, the metabolism of a city, and so on --

DNK neke kompanije, metabolizam grada, i tako dalje --

is that just bullshit, metaphorical bullshit,

da li je to samo sranje, metaforičko sranje,

or is there serious substance to it?

ili u tome ima istine?

And if that is the case,

Ako je to tačno,

how come that it's very hard to kill a city?

zašto je veoma teško uništiti grad?

You could drop an atom bomb on a city,

Možete baciti atomsku bombu na grad,

and 30 years later it's surviving.

a 30 godina kasnije on i dalje preživljava.

Very few cities fail.

Malo je gradova koji su propali.

All companies die, all companies.

Sve kompanije umiru, sve kompanije.

And if you have a serious theory, you should be able to predict

Ako imate ozbiljnu teoriju, onda bi mogli da predvidite.

when Google is going to go bust.

kada će Gugl propasti.

So is that just another version

Dakle, da li je to

of this?

samo još jedna verzija ovoga.

Well we understand this very well.

Mi ovo dobro razumemo.

That is, you ask any generic question about this --

Odnosno, možete postaviti bilo koje pitanje o ovome -

how many trees of a given size,

koliko stabala određene veličine,

how many branches of a given size does a tree have,

koliko grana određene veličine, ima jedno drvo,

how many leaves,

koliko listova,

what is the energy flowing through each branch,

koja energija protiče kroz svaku granu,

what is the size of the canopy,

kolika je veličina krošnje,

what is its growth, what is its mortality?

kolika je stopa rasta, kolika stopa smrtnosti?

We have a mathematical framework

Imamo matematički okvir

based on generic universal principles

baziran na osnovnim univerzalnim principima

that can answer those questions.

koji može da odgovori na ova pitanja.

And the idea is can we do the same for this?

A ideja je, da li možemo da uradimo isto i za ovo?

So the route in is recognizing

Dakle, ide se ka prepoznavanju

one of the most extraordinary things about life,

jedne od najfenomenalnijih stvari o životu,

is that it is scalable,

a to je da je merljiv,

it works over an extraordinary range.

a skala se kreće u izuzetnom rasponu.

This is just a tiny range actually:

Ovo je jedan od malih raspona:

It's us mammals;

to smo mi, sisari,

we're one of these.

mi smo jedni od njih.

The same principles, the same dynamics,

Isti principi, ista dinamika,

the same organization is at work

ista organizacija je u svemu

in all of these, including us,

uključujući i nas,

and it can scale over a range of 100 million in size.

i može se primeniti na rasponu od 100 miliona veličina.

And that is one of the main reasons

Ovo je jedan od glavnih razloga

life is so resilient and robust --

zašto je život tako otporan i robustan -

scalability.

skaliranje.

We're going to discuss that in a moment more.

To ću ubrzo predstaviti.

But you know, at a local level,

Ali, znate, lokalno gledano,

you scale; everybody in this room is scaled.

vi skalirate, svi u ovoj sobi su skalirani.

That's called growth.

To se zove rast.

Here's how you grew.

Evo koliko ste porasli.

Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.

Pacov, ovo je pacov - mogli ste biti vi.

We're all pretty much the same.

Mi smo svi prilično jednaki.

And you see, you're very familiar with this.

Vidite, svi ste upoznati sa ovim.

You grow very quickly and then you stop.

Rastete veoma brzo, a onda stanete.

And that line there

Ona linija tamo

is a prediction from the same theory,

jeste pretpostavka koja je izvedena na osnovu iste teorije,

based on the same principles,

na osnovu istih principa,

that describes that forest.

koji opisuju onu šumu.

And here it is for the growth of a rat,

Ovde je predstavljen rast pacova,

and those points on there are data points.

a one tačke su specifični podaci.

This is just the weight versus the age.

Ovo je odnos težine i starosti.

And you see, it stops growing.

Vidite, prestaje da raste.

Very, very good for biology --

Veoma dobro za biologiju,

also one of the reasons for its great resilience.

takođe jedan od razloga njihove velike otpornosti.

Very, very bad

Veoma, veoma loše

for economies and companies and cities

za ekonomiju, kompanije i gradove,

in our present paradigm.

u našoj sadašnjoj paradigmi.

This is what we believe.

To je ono u šta verujemo.

This is what our whole economy

Na ovome je zasnovana

is thrusting upon us,

naša čitava ekonomija,

particularly illustrated in that left-hand corner:

posebno prikazana u levom uglu:

hockey sticks.

štapovi za hokej.

This is a bunch of software companies --

Ovo je gomila softverskih kompanija,

and what it is is their revenue versus their age --

i pokazuje njihove prihode u odnosu na starost -

all zooming away,

sve se udaljava

and everybody making millions and billions of dollars.

i svako zarađuje milione i milijarde dolara.

Okay, so how do we understand this?

Dobro, kako mi ovo shvatamo?

So let's first talk about biology.

Sagledajmo prvo biologiju.

This is explicitly showing you

Ovo vam eksplicitno pokazuje

how things scale,

kako se stvari mere i upoređuju,

and this is a truly remarkable graph.

ovo je uistinu izuzetan grafikon.

What is plotted here is metabolic rate --

Ovde vidimo metaboličku stopu -

how much energy you need per day to stay alive --

koliko vam je energije potrebno za svakodnevni život -

versus your weight, your mass,

prema vašoj težini, vašoj masi,

for all of us bunch of organisms.

za sve nas, gomilu organizama.

And it's plotted in this funny way by going up by factors of 10,

Predstvaljen je na ovaj zabavan način, inkrementima koji rastu za 10 jedinica,

otherwise you couldn't get everything on the graph.

da je drugačije, ne biste stavili sve na grafikon.

And what you see if you plot it

Ono što vidite na grafikonu,

in this slightly curious way

na ovaj malo neobičan način,

is that everybody lies on the same line.

jeste da svi prate isti patern.

Despite the fact that this is the most complex and diverse system

Uprkos tome da se radi o najsloženijem i najrazličitijem

in the universe,

sistemu u univerzumu,

there's an extraordinary simplicity

postoji neverovatna jednostavnost

being expressed by this.

koja je ovime prikazana.

It's particularly astonishing

Posebno je zadivljujuće

because each one of these organisms,

jer je svaki od ovih organizama,

each subsystem, each cell type, each gene,

svaki podsistem, svaki tip ćelije, svaki gen,

has evolved in its own unique environmental niche

evoluirao u svojoj jedinstvenoj prirodnoj sredini,

with its own unique history.

sa svojom jedinstvenom istorijom.

And yet, despite all of that Darwinian evolution

Ipak, i pored Darvinove teorije evolucije

and natural selection,

i prirodne selekcije,

they've been constrained to lie on a line.

oni su prinuđeni da leže na istoj liniji.

Something else is going on.

Ovde se odigrava još nešto.

Before I talk about that,

Pre nego što počnem da pričam o tome,

I've written down at the bottom there

zapisao sam na dnu

the slope of this curve, this straight line.

ove krivulje, ovu ravnu liniju.

It's three-quarters, roughly,

To je otprilike tri četvrtine, grubo,

which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear.

što je manje nego jedan - i to zovemo sublinearnom.

And here's the point of that.

Evo i poenta toga.

It says that, if it were linear,

Govori da, ako bi bilo linearno,

the steepest slope,

najstrmiji nagib,

then doubling the size

da bi udvostručili veličinu,

you would require double the amount of energy.

trebalo bi vam dupla količina energije.

But it's sublinear, and what that translates into

Ali kako je sublinearna, to znači da

is that, if you double the size of the organism,

ako duplirate veličinu organizma,

you actually only need 75 percent more energy.

vama treba 75 procenata energije više.

So a wonderful thing about all of biology

Dakle, divna stvar u biologiji

is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale.

je postojanje ekonomičnosti veličine.

The bigger you are systematically,

Što ste sistemski veći,

according to very well-defined rules,

u skladu sa dobro definisanim pravilima,

less energy per capita.

treba vam manje energije po glavi.

Now any physiological variable you can think of,

Bilo koja fiziološka varijabla koje se možete setiti,

any life history event you can think of,

bilo koji istorijski događaj kog se možete setiti,

if you plot it this way, looks like this.

ako ga predstavite na ovaj način, izgledaće ovako.

There is an extraordinary regularity.

Postoji izvanredna pravilnost.

So you tell me the size of a mammal,

Dakle, kažete mi veličinu sisara,

I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it

a ja vam, sa tačnošću od 90%, mogu reći sve o njemu

in terms of its physiology, life history, etc.

o fiziologiji, životnoj istoriji i sl.

And the reason for this is because of networks.

Razlog tome je mreža.

All of life is controlled by networks --

Sav život je kontrolisan od strane mreža -

from the intracellular through the multicellular

od unutarćelijskih preko višećelijskih

through the ecosystem level.

preko nivoa ekosistema.

And you're very familiar with these networks.

Vi dobro poznajete ove mreže.

That's a little thing that lives inside an elephant.

To je mala stvar koja živi unutar jednog slona.

And here's the summary of what I'm saying.

A ovde je rezime svega što govorim.

If you take those networks,

Ako uzmete ove mreže,

this idea of networks,

ovu ideju o mreži,

and you apply universal principles,

i primenite univerzalne principe,

mathematizable, universal principles,

matematičke, univerzalne principe

all of these scalings

sva ta skaliranja

and all of these constraints follow,

i sva ta ograničenja koja prate,

including the description of the forest,

uključujući opis šume,

the description of your circulatory system,

opis vašeg sistema cirkulacije,

the description within cells.

opis unutar ćelija.

One of the things I did not stress in that introduction

Jedna od stvari koje nisam dovoljno naglasio u uvodu,

was that, systematically, the pace of life

jeste da, sistematski, brzina života

decreases as you get bigger.

opada kako vi postajete veći.

Heart rates are slower; you live longer;

Otkucaji srca su sporiji, vi živite duže,

diffusion of oxygen and resources

razmena kiseonika i resurasa

across membranes is slower, etc.

preko membrana je sporija itd.

The question is: Is any of this true

Pitanje je: Da li se išta od ovoga može

for cities and companies?

primeniti na gradove i kompanije?

So is London a scaled up Birmingham,

Dakle, da li je London uveličani Birmingem,

which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.?

koji je uveličani Brajton itd?

Is New York a scaled up San Francisco,

Da li je Njujork uveličani San Francisko,

which is a scaled up Santa Fe?

koji je uveličani Santa Fe?

Don't know. We will discuss that.

Ne znam. O tome ćemo raspravljati.

But they are networks,

Ali oni su mreže,

and the most important network of cities

a najvažnija mreža grada

is you.

jeste vi.

Cities are just a physical manifestation

Gradovi su samo fizička manifestacija

of your interactions,

vaših interakcija,

our interactions,

naših interakcija,

and the clustering and grouping of individuals.

i grupisanja i povezivanja pojedinaca.

Here's just a symbolic picture of that.

Ovo je samo simbolična slika toga.

And here's scaling of cities.

Ovo je skaliranje gradova.

This shows that in this very simple example,

Pokazuje da ovaj jednostavan primer,

which happens to be a mundane example

koji je ujedno i običan primer

of number of petrol stations

broja benzinskih pumpi

as a function of size --

predstvaljen kao funkcija veličine -

plotted in the same way as the biology --

predstavljen na isti način kao i u biologiji -

you see exactly the same kind of thing.

pokazuje istu stvar.

There is a scaling.

Merljivo je i uporedivo.

That is that the number of petrol stations in the city

Broj benzinskih pumpi u gradu

is now given to you

vam je sada predstavljen

when you tell me its size.

u funkciji veličine grada.

The slope of that is less than linear.

Nagib nije linearan.

There is an economy of scale.

Prisutna je ekonomija obima.

Less petrol stations per capita the bigger you are -- not surprising.

Što je manje benzinskih pumpi po glavi, vi ste veći - nije iznenađujuće.

But here's what's surprising.

Ali evo iznenađenja.

It scales in the same way everywhere.

Skaliranje je svuda identično.

This is just European countries,

Ovu su samo evropske zemlje,

but you do it in Japan or China or Colombia,

ali ako uradite to u Japanu, Kini ili Kolumbiji

always the same

dobijete isti rezultat,

with the same kind of economy of scale

sa istim pravilima ekonomičnosti veličine

to the same degree.

istog stepena.

And any infrastructure you look at --

Svaka infrastruktura koju pogledate -

whether it's the length of roads, length of electrical lines --

bilo da je dužina puta, dužina električnih vodova -

anything you look at

sve što pogledate

has the same economy of scale scaling in the same way.

pokazuje istu ekonomičnost, izraženu na isti način.

It's an integrated system

To je integrisani sistem

that has evolved despite all the planning and so on.

koji je evoluirao i pored svih planiranja i slično.

But even more surprising

Ali ono što još više iznenađuje

is if you look at socio-economic quantities,

jeste analiza socio-ekonomskih pokazatelja,

quantities that have no analog in biology,

veličine koje nemaju pandam u biologiji,

that have evolved when we started forming communities

koje su evoluirale kada smo formirali zajednice

eight to 10,000 years ago.

pre 8 do 10.000 godina.

The top one is wages as a function of size

Ono na vrhu su zarade predstavljene u funkciji veličine,

plotted in the same way.

dakle na isti način.

And the bottom one is you lot --

A na dnu ste vi -

super-creatives plotted in the same way.

super-kreativni predstavljeni na isti način.

And what you see

Ono što vidite

is a scaling phenomenon.

jeste fenomen skaliranja.

But most important in this,

Ali najvažniji je

the exponent, the analog to that three-quarters

eksponent, primenjiv na te tri četvrtine

for the metabolic rate,

za metaboličku stopu,

is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2.

je veći od jedan - on je oko 1,15 do 1,2.

Here it is,

Tu je,

which says that the bigger you are

pokazuje da što ste veći

the more you have per capita, unlike biology --

više imate po glavi stanovnika, za razliku od biologije -

higher wages, more super-creative people per capita as you get bigger,

veće plate, više kreativnih ljudi po glavi stanovnika- što ste veći,

more patents per capita, more crime per capita.

više patenata po glavi stanovnika, više kriminala po glavi stanovnika.

And we've looked at everything:

Mi smo analizirali sve:

more AIDS cases, flu, etc.

više slučajeva SIDA-e, gripa i sl.

And here, they're all plotted together.

A ovde su oni predstavljeni zajedno.

Just to show you what we plotted,

Samo da vam pokažem šta smo predstavili,

here is income, GDP --

ovde je prihod, BDP -

GDP of the city --

BDP grada -

crime and patents all on one graph.

kriminal i patenti na jednom grafikonu.

And you can see, they all follow the same line.

Možete videti, oni prate jednu istu liniju.

And here's the statement.

Evo i izjave.

If you double the size of a city from 100,000 to 200,000,

Ako udvostručite veličinu grada sa 100.000 na 200.000,

from a million to two million, 10 to 20 million,

sa milion na dva miliona, 10 na 20 miliona

it doesn't matter,

nije bitno,

then systematically

onda sistematski

you get a 15 percent increase

dobijate povećanje od 15 procenata

in wages, wealth, number of AIDS cases,

u platama, bogatstvu, obolelih od SIDA-e,

number of police,

broju policajaca,

anything you can think of.

svega što možete da zamislite.

It goes up by 15 percent,

Sve poraste za 15%,

and you have a 15 percent savings

i imate 15% uštedu

on the infrastructure.

na infrastrukturi.

This, no doubt, is the reason

To je, nema sumnje, razlog

why a million people a week are gathering in cities.

zašto milion ljudi svake nedelje dolazi u gradove.

Because they think that all those wonderful things --

Zato što misle da su sve te divne stvari -

like creative people, wealth, income --

kreativni ljudi, bogatstvo, prihod,

is what attracts them,

ono što ih privlači,

forgetting about the ugly and the bad.

a zaboravljaju na ružnu i lošu stranu.

What is the reason for this?

Šta je razlog tome?

Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics,

Nemam vremena da vam pričam detaljno o matematici,

but underlying this is the social networks,

ali u osnovi svega je socijalna mreža,

because this is a universal phenomenon.

jer je ovo univerzalni fenomen.

This 15 percent rule

Ovo pravilo od 15 procenata

is true

je istinito

no matter where you are on the planet --

bez obzira gde ste na planeti -

Japan, Chile,

Japan, Čile,

Portugal, Scotland, doesn't matter.

Portugal, Škotska, nije bitno.

Always, all the data shows it's the same,

Uvek, svi podaci pokazuju isto,

despite the fact that these cities have evolved independently.

uprkos činjenici da su se ovi gradovi razvijali nezavisno.

Something universal is going on.

Nešto univerzalno se dešava.

The universality, to repeat, is us --

Ta univerzalnost, da ponovim, smo mi -

that we are the city.

mi smo grad.

And it is our interactions and the clustering of those interactions.

Naše interakcije i grupisanje ovih interakcija.

So there it is, I've said it again.

Dakle, ponavljam se.

So if it is those networks and their mathematical structure,

Ove mreže i njihova matematička osnova,

unlike biology, which had sublinear scaling,

nisu kao biologija, gde vlada sublinearno skaliranje,

economies of scale,

ili ekonomija obima,

you had the slowing of the pace of life

pa dolazi do usporavanja tempa života

as you get bigger.

sa rastom.

If it's social networks with super-linear scaling --

Ako je to društvena mreža, sa super linearnim skaliranjem -

more per capita --

više po glavi stanovnika -

then the theory says

onda teorija kaže

that you increase the pace of life.

da vi povećavate tempo života.

The bigger you are, life gets faster.

Što ste veći, život postaje brži.

On the left is the heart rate showing biology.

Sa leve strane je prikazan srčani ritam koji pokazuje biologiju.

On the right is the speed of walking

Sa desne strane je brzina hoda

in a bunch of European cities,

u velikom broju evropskih gradova,

showing that increase.

koja pokazuje taj rast.

Lastly, I want to talk about growth.

Na kraju, želim da govorim o rastu.

This is what we had in biology, just to repeat.

Ovo smo imali u biologiji, samo da ponovim.

Economies of scale

Ekonomija obima

gave rise to this sigmoidal behavior.

podstiče ovo sigmoidalno ponašanje.

You grow fast and then stop --

Rastete brzo i onda stanete -

part of our resilience.

to je deo naše otpornosti.

That would be bad for economies and cities.

To bi bilo loše za ekonomiju i gradove.

And indeed, one of the wonderful things about the theory

Zaista, jedna od fantastičnih stvari u vezi sa ovom teorijom

is that if you have super-linear scaling

je da ako imate super-linearno skaliranje

from wealth creation and innovation,

od stvaranja bogatstva i inovacija,

then indeed you get, from the same theory,

onda stvarno dobijate, od iste teorije,

a beautiful rising exponential curve -- lovely.

divnu rastuću eksponencijalnu krivu - prelepo.

And in fact, if you compare it to data,

U stvari, ako je uporedite sa podacima

it fits very well

slažu se veoma dobro

with the development of cities and economies.

sa razvojem gradova i ekomonije.

But it has a terrible catch,

Ali postoji užasna začkoljicu,

and the catch

a to je

is that this system is destined to collapse.

da je ovaj sistem osuđen na propast.

And it's destined to collapse for many reasons --

Osuđen je iz mnogih razloga -

kind of Malthusian reasons -- that you run out of resources.

sličnih Maltusovim razlozima - da ćete ostati bez resursa.

And how do you avoid that? Well we've done it before.

Kako da izbegnete to? Pa mi smo to već jednom uspeli.

What we do is,

Ono što se dešava

as we grow and we approach the collapse,

je da rastemo i približavamo se tački kolapsa,

a major innovation takes place

tada dođemo do velikog izuma,

and we start over again,

i mi počinjemo iznova ponovo,

and we start over again as we approach the next one, and so on.

i počinjemo ispočetka kada se približimo sledećoj i tako dalje.

So there's this continuous cycle of innovation

Dakle tu je neprekidan ciklus inoviranja

that is necessary

koji je neophodan

in order to sustain growth and avoid collapse.

u cilju održavanja rasta i izbegavanja kolapsa.

The catch, however, to this

Začkoljica, je u tome

is that you have to innovate

što treba da inoviramo

faster and faster and faster.

brže i brže i brže.

So the image

Dakle slika je

is that we're not only on a treadmill that's going faster,

takva da nismo samo na pokretnoj traci koja se kreće brže

but we have to change the treadmill faster and faster.

već moramo da menjamo trake sve brže i brže.

We have to accelerate on a continuous basis.

Moramo neprekidno da ubrzavamo.

And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic beings,

A pitanje je: Možemo li, kao socijalno-ekonomska bića,

avoid a heart attack?

da izbegnemo srčani udar?

So lastly, I'm going to finish up in this last minute or two

Na kraju, završiću u poslednjoj minuti ili dve

asking about companies.

pitajući o kompanijama.

See companies, they scale.

Vidite kompanije, one se skaliraju.

The top one, in fact, is Walmart on the right.

Ona na vrhu je Volmart, sa desne strane.

It's the same plot.

To je isti gafikon.

This happens to be income and assets

Ovo su prihod i imovina

versus the size of the company as denoted by its number of employees.

prema veličini kompanije, predstavljeni brojem zaposlenih.

We could use sales, anything you like.

Možemo da koristimo prodaju, bilo šta što vam se dopada.

There it is: after some little fluctuations at the beginning,

Nakon nekih manjih fluktuacija na početku,

when companies are innovating,

kada kompanija inovira,

they scale beautifully.

ona veoma lepo skalira.

And we've looked at 23,000 companies

Imamo 23.000 kompanija

in the United States, may I say.

u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama.

And I'm only showing you a little bit of this.

A pokazujem vam samo mali deo ovoga.

What is astonishing about companies

Ono što je zadivljujuće oko kompanija

is that they scale sublinearly

je da one skaliraju sublinearno

like biology,

kao biologija,

indicating that they're dominated,

pokazujući da njima dominiraju,

not by super-linear

ne super-linearne

innovation and ideas;

inovacije i ideje

they become dominated

već dominira

by economies of scale.

ekonomija obima.

In that interpretation,

Prema toj interpretaciji,

by bureaucracy and administration,

birokratije i administracije

and they do it beautifully, may I say.

to lepo čine, ako mi dozvolite.

So if you tell me the size of some company, some small company,

Dakle, ako mi kažete veličinu kompanije, neke male kompanije,

I could have predicted the size of Walmart.

mogao bih da predvidim veličinu Volmarta.

If it has this sublinear scaling,

Ako ima ovo sublinearno skaliranje

the theory says

teorija kaže

we should have sigmoidal growth.

da ćemo imati sigmoidalni rast.

There's Walmart. Doesn't look very sigmoidal.

Tu je Volmart. Ne izgleda preterano sigmoidalno.

That's what we like, hockey sticks.

To je ono što volimo, štapovi za hokej.

But you notice, I've cheated,

Ali primetili ste, ja sam varao

because I've only gone up to '94.

jer sam išao samo do '94.

Let's go up to 2008.

Hajdemo do 2008.

That red line is from the theory.

Crvena linija je iz teorije.

So if I'd have done this in 1994,

Dakle, da sam uradio ovo 1994.

I could have predicted what Walmart would be now.

mogao bih da predvidim kakav bi Volmart mogao biti sada.

And then this is repeated

Onda se ovo ponavlja

across the entire spectrum of companies.

kroz čitav spektar kompanija.

There they are. That's 23,000 companies.

One su ovde. To je 23.000 kompanija.

They all start looking like hockey sticks,

Sve počinju da liče na štapove za hokej,

they all bend over,

sve se savijaju,

and they all die like you and me.

i sve umiru kao vi i ja.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)